Hi all,
Shame we lost Ascot as it meant it was a quiet day on the betting front. Half Light ran well to finish runner-up in the Sun Chariot and Ey Up It’s Maggie finished 8th just two lengths from the places in the 2-year-old Trophy at Redcar. You she can a good race and will more races when she gets soft ground. I thought Lullaby Moon would be tough to beat in the race and so it proved. Sometimes it’s worth just going with the obvious rather than trying to overcomplicate a race.
It’s Arc Day at Longchamp and Europe’s biggest horse race. We might have lost Love due to heavy ground and the four remaining O’Brien runners look like they won’t be running to due to contaminated feed issues. If those four don’t run than the race will take on a completely different look as two likely front runners in Serpentine & Sovereign won’t be in the field.
Despite concerns about the ground the defection of the O’Brien runners makes her task an easier one now. I expect Enable to win now and I hope she does. History making it will be if she wins but in some ways the gloss will be taken away and not only because her win take place in front of a virtually empty Longchamp.
ITV are covering four races from Longchamp sadly one of them is an Arabian race! I have a few tentative selections from some of the other races on the card.
Longchamp
1:50 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m
There are slight doubts about the participation of ante post favourite Pretty Gorgeous. That leaves the Richard Fahey trained Fev Rover as the most likely winner. I did fancy Thunder Beauty each way for the race. The daughter of Night Of Thunder won a Curragh maiden on her racecourse debut and ran well to finish 5th in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes last time. She came with a good run on the outside and coming to the furlong mark and looked like she would finish third. Her effort slightly flattened out in the final 50yds or so but she still looked inexperienced in my eyes. Soft ground shouldn’t be a problem for the filly although heavy is anyone’s guess, and a today’s extra furlong will suit. Thunder Beauty will do for me.
0.5pts each way – Thunder Beauty – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m 4f
It’s going to come down to who loves the conditions.
You must wish Enable well in her history making bid to win the race for a third time. I would love to see her do it and her task will be eased by the defection of the four O’Brien runners.
The softening ground has seen money come for Gold Cup winner Stradivarius. You can understand why. A strongly run 1m 4f should really suit him and the more of a stamina test it is the more chance he has. I can just remember Gold Cup winner Ardross coming within a head of winning this in 1982. The price has now gone though.
My own ante post punt Raabihah was a shade disappointing when only runner-up in the Prix Vermeille. Whilst I think she will relish a strongly run 1m 4f. I’m not sure she will appreciate a likely slog in the mud.
In Swoop has strong German middle distance pedigree and won the German Derby on his third career start. Returned from a 62-day break to finish 2nd of 10 in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris on his last start. The more of a stamina test the better his chance. One place behind him that day was Gold Trip he was having his first run since disappointing the Prix du Jockey Club. He’s no forlorn hope and he’s three times the price of In Swoop.
Verdict: In a race where attitude as much as ability will triumph. I’m not sure my ante post tip Raabihah will like the ground but you never know. At the prices now Gold Trip probably offers some value at 33s with bookies paying four places.
0.5pts each way – Gold Trip – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:50 – Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) – 1m 2f
Hard to look beyond Alpine Star who still looks to be improving and returns to her optimum trip here. Apart from Palace Pier she was the only one who seemed to handle heavy ground at Deauville, when runner-up in the Prix Jacques le Marois. The unbeaten Tawkeel, a winner of the Group 1 Prix Saint Alary in June, returned from a 69-day break to win a Group 2 at Deauville on very soft in August. This looks like it’s been her target and she should give Alpine Star most to do.
1pt win – Tawkeel – 4/1 @ William Hill
4:25 – Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) – 5f
Glass Slippers won this 12 months ago and looks to have solid claims of back to back win in the race. The 4-year-old won a Group 1 at the Curragh last time when just doing enough to hold off tough filly Keep Busy. The latter has each way claims again and could be better drawn than the favourite. Another each way contender is the improving Air De Valse. The 4-year-old made it 3-4 over 5f whenwinning over C&D last month and is improving with racing.
1pt each way – Air De Valse – 11/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
4:55 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f
One Master bids for a hat trick in the race and she looks to have a great chance of doing it. The 6-year-old is arguably in better form this year than she was 12 months ago. Dual Group 1 winning juvenile Earthlight heads the market after his win in a Group 3 here over the distance last month. He beat stablemate Tropbeau that day and the runner-up has each-way claims again. Tropbeau was fourth in the French 1000 Guineas earlier in the season and has been doing all her winning on soft or very soft ground.
0.5pts each way – Tropbeau – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John