Hi all,
There are six Group 1’s at Longchamp on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day. It’s the biggest day in French flat racing season and the Arc itself is the most valuable race run in Europe.
The Arc has been a good race for me over the years. However, nothing tops the 2021 race when I tipped up Torquator Tasso at 100/1 for subscribers of the service. There’s only one certainty this year I won’t be tipping one up at 100/1.
Fifteen have been declared for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. On paper it doesn’t look the classiest renewal and there isn’t a standout contender like an Enable in the field. However, it doesn’t lack intrigue and with the bookies going 3/1 the field on Friday evening it makes the race more appealing for me.
You can watch the first four Group 1’s live on ITV4 or watch them all on Sky Sports Racing.
It’s a cracking afternoon of top class horse racing and one I always thoroughly enjoy.
In today’s main piece I have looked at all six Group’s and for one card it’s a very in-depth preview. Although I haven’t looked at the Group 1 Arabian World Cup which is live on ITV. I know nothing about Arabian Racing and in truth haven’t got the inclination to look at it. After all there’s plenty of other good racing to focus on.
Arc Day Preview:
1:15 – Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) – 7f
Rosallion looked a smart juvenile when winning his first two starts but he disappointed when only 3rd of 5 in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster 15 days ago. It was soft ground at Doncaster, and I think he will want the ground to dry out to good or quicker. If it does, I can see the colt going close.
Jayarebe looked like a useful prospect when winning at Newmarket on his racecourse debut in August. He could have gone for yesterday’s Royal Lodge at Newmarket but it’s interesting that connections have opted to go for this Group 1 contest instead. It’s a tough ask to win a race like this on just his second start but he can’t be taken lightly.
The best of the French colts are probably Bouvatier, Evade and Zabiari.
Beauvatier, produced a nice turn of foot to win a Group 3 over C&D 28 days ago. There should be more to come from the son of Lope De Vega who is a nice prospect and could end up going off favourite.
Evade was a length runner-up to Beauvatier last time but he was slowly away that day and did well to finish as close as he did. He can’t be ruled out given he’s trained by Andre Fabre who has won this race three times since 2015.
Zabiari hails from the very much in form Jean-Claude Rouget yard. The son of Wootton Bassett made it 2-4 when winning a Group 3 here over a mile. He finished behind Beauvatier at Deauville in July but he’s an improving colt and I think there’s more to come from him.
Verdict: Beauvatier looks a smart juvenile and looks the most likely winner. Drying ground suits Rosallion and if you ignore his Doncaster run on soft ground you can argue he should be favourite.
1:50 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m
Opera Singer put in a much improved performance when returning to winning ways in the Group 3 Flame Of Tara Stakes at the Curragh last time It was a comfortable success for the daughter of Justify who is going the right way. Better ground will suit and I think she’s 1,000 Guineas contender. I was hoping we would see her in the Fillies Mile later this month at Newmarket but she comes here.
Darnation keeps on improving and she completed the hat trick when winning the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster 17 days ago. Her form is the best on offer in the race, but it has come on soft ground so quicker ground would be an unknown.
The best of the French challengers looks to be Les Pavots. The daughter of No Nay Never improved to win a Group 2 at Deauville last time. She’s an improving filly and should give the British & Irish fillies a race.
Both Julica and Zandy are open to further improvement. The first named has won a couple of minor races but couldn’t have been more impressive in victory on both occasions. Zandy won a minor race at Chantilly 18 days ago. The daughter of Frankel has the pedigree that will be suited to quick ground.
Verdict: The drying ground means Opera Singer can get the better of Darnation. Both Julica and Zandy are intriguing fillies capable of plenty more improvement.
3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Working out how the ground will ride could be harder than finding the winner of the race itself.
There are few horses that seemingly want to go forward. It’s possible despite the size of the field that it might not be a strongly run race. Those that are held up might well face traffic problems in the straight. Thus, it could pay to be close to the pace.
Hukum & Westover are the class horses of the race after finishing first and second in the King George at Ascot in July. That was the best race of the season and the front two pulled clear of the rest that day.
Hukum is drawn 14 of 15 which isn’t ideal, and he would be a history maker if he wins because no 6-year-old has won the race. Westover has got stall 1 which might not be totally ideal for him because he can be a keen goer and jockey Rob Hornby won’t want his horse to get to lit up in the early stages, but he also doesn’t want to find himself behind horses on the rail. Westover was well beaten in last year’s race, but it was heavy and he’s a better horse on a sounder surface. I fancy Westover can finish in front of Hukum.
If there is a superstar in the field, it will be Ace Impact. The French Derby winner is unbeaten on five starts. He was unraced as a juvenile and he would also become the first Arc winner since 1990 to have not raced at 1m 4f in his career. I suspect the latter trend is due to be busted and his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget knows what’s required to win the race having saddled the winner in 2020.
Feed The Flame was another not to race as a juvenile. He was behind Ace Impact in the French Derby but has since proved his stamina for 1m 4f when winning the Grand Prix de Paris over C&D and he’s since finished a 2 ½ length 2nd of 7 to Fantastic Moon Prix Niel 21 days ago. He wasn’t as well as positioned as the winner that day and should get much closer today. I don’t think he beats Ace Impact if that one stays.
German challenger Fantastic Moon won the German Derby and improved again when winning the Prix Niel last time. He’s been supplemented for the race and is going the right way for sure. Drying conditions suit and I think he can make his mark if he gets his ground.
I’m not sure about the Japanese form but Through Seven Seas ran the brilliant Equinox to a neck in a Grade 1 in June. She’s yet to win a Grade/Group 1 race but she seems to have improved this year and if her last time effort can be taken at face value then she should be able to win one. Ground on the quick side of good and she’s got be a contender.
St Leger winner Continuous has been supplemented for the race. He’s another 3-year-old colt going the right way and does look a better than average St Leger winner. I can see him running into the places, but I don’t think he’ll win.
Simca Mille won a Group 1 in Germany last time. He’ll need a career best to win and is drawn out widest in stall 15 but good ground suits and he’s got each way claims.
Finally, I wouldn’t rule out Bay Bridge. The 5-year-old won last years Group 1 Champion Stakes and back to his best for the first time this season when winning the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton. The step up to 1m 4f suited him well and provided the ground doesn’t turn out to be too quick he looks the overpriced runner in the lineup.
Free Wind was back to form when a head 2nd of 10 to Warm Heart in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. The drop back to 1m 4f and a return to quick ground suited the mare at York and she doesn’t have too much to find on official ratings. Another with each way claims on a good ground and has handy draw in stall 3.
Place Du Carrousel was trained to win the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera (1m 2f) 12 months ago and it looks like the filly has been trained for this race. She seemed to stay 1m 4f, albeit in a slowly run race when winning the Group 2 Prix Foy over C&D three weeks ago. Another with solid each way claims in an open race.
Arc Verdict: Ace Impact is a worthy favourite but would like an evenly run race given his hold up style. Bay Bridge and Fantastic Moon have contrasting profiles but have good claims. The former will be hoping the ground doesn’t dry out too much but that won’t worry Fantastic Moon. Ground quicker than good to soft is an unknown for Place Du Carrousel but she looks overpriced. Japanese mare Through Seven Seas will relish the quicker ground and I think she’s set for a big run.
3:50 – Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) – 1m 2f
This doesn’t look the strong renewals of the race. Blue Rose Cen looked a potential superstar when winning the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) in June. Not at that level of form on two starts since and isn’t as good as some were hoping but she could still be good enough to win in this company.
Stay Alert couldn’t get into the race from the rear when 6th of 10 in the Yorkshire Oaks last time. She’s better judged on 2 length 2nd of 9 in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh two starts back.
Lumiere Rock has been running consistently well without winning this season, but she gained a well-deserved win in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes at the Curragh three weeks ago. Provided she didn’t have too hard a race last time she’s capable of going close.
Rogue Millennium posted a career best when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 12 to Tahiyra in the Group 1 Matron Stakes (1m) at Leopardstown 22 days ago. A Group 2 winner at Royal Ascot (1m) she stays 1m 2f and given she’s not with a big name trainer could be bit overpriced.
Al Husn got a good ride when winning a modestly run Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood two starts back. She looked light in the paddock when only 9th of 10 in the Yorkshire Oaks and probably had a hard race on soft ground at Goodwood. Has been freshened up and a reproduction of her Nassau form would see her go close.
Verdict: Blue Rose Cen has a great chance. She’s not the filly that connections thought she might be but could be good enough in what isn’t the strongest of renewals. Al Husn is a better filly than she showed at York last time and could bounce back. Lumiere Rock should give her running once more as can Rogue Millennium who could be a bit of value.
4:25 – Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) – 5f
Nunthorpe runner-up Highfield Princess was the best sprinter in Europe last year and was said to have been in season when only 5th of 10 in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh last time. Showed when winning at Goodwood in August that she hasn’t lost any of her ability. At her best she beats these.
Art Power also ran below par in the Flying Five last time. Better than he was able to show last time but he would struggle to beat Highfield Princess if that mare is at her best. If she isn’t and he is then he could well be up to landing his first Group 1.
Moss Tucker took advantage of some of his rivals underperforming when winning the Flying Five last time. Not beaten far into fifth in last year’s race and if he hadn’t had been slowly away would have gone close. Provided the ground doesn’t get too quick, he won’t be far away.
Get Ahead was a ½ length runner-up to Moss Tucker in the Flying Five and now reason why she won’t go well again. Stablemate Kerdos showed improved form to win the Listed Beverley Bullet last month. His trainer thinks he can be a Group sprinter next season but there’s no reason why he can’t run well here.
Rogue Lightning improved for the drop back to 5f to win handicaps at Doncaster & Ascot and progressed again to win the Listed Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster 14 days ago. Looks worth his place in the line-up and given his current form and level of improvement isn’t one to take lightly.
Verdict: Highfield Princess wins if she’s at her best. If she isn’t it’s an open looking race. Moss Tucker looks the one most likely to take advantage should the mare underperform. At bigger odds the improving Kerdos and Rogue Lightning can run well on a sound surface.
5:00 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f
Last year’s winner Kinross will be many punters idea of the banker of the day. The 6-year-old has looked as good as ever in winning Group 2’s at Goodwood & York. Has a handy draw in stall and is the one to beat. That said he faces several decent rivals and this year’s renewal does look deeper than 12 months ago.
Sauterne is actually joint top on RPR’s with Kinross. The 3-year-old looked suited to the drying ground when improving to win the Group 1 Prix du Moulin here (1m) 28 days ago. The drop back to 7f shouldn’t inconvenience her as she had too much pace for rival’s last time. Capable of winning this but has had a long campaign.
King Gold won theGroup 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over an extended 6f at Deauville last time. The drop back in trip on testing ground suited the 6-year-old. Ground versatile all three of his wins this season prior to Deauville had come over C&D so the step back up in trip will be fine.
Shouldvebeenaring has already had 11 runs since January but there were no signs that the 3-year-old was feeling the effects of a long season when a neck 2nd of 16 to Regional in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last month. Tends to out run big odds in races like this and likely to be on the premises once more.
Fang was a disappointing 7th of 10 in last year’s race. However, the 5-year-old has had a lighter campaign this year winning two of his three starts. The latest of those successes came when making all to win a Group 3 over C&D three weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran better than 12 months ago.
Cachet last year’s 1,000 Guineas winner before being touched off in the French 1,000 Guineas has been trained for an autumn campaign this year. The filly was having her first start for 15 months when a 5 ¾ length 4th of 10 in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster two weeks ago. That run was needed, and she will be a lot sharper here. If she’s over the ‘niggles’ that have kept her off the track, she should be bang there at the business end of the race. The Sun Chariot Stakes over a mile at Newmarket could well be her ultimate target but I expect a big run from the 4-year-old.
Verdict: All eyes on Kinross but this year’s race looks stronger than when he won last year. We have two recent Group 1 winners in the line-up in Sauterne and King Gold. Fang was disappointing in this last year but is capable of better. Cachet will be all the better for her recent Doncaster reappearance and although she might be better over a mile, I’m expecting a big run.
Betting Advice:
I’m going for swing at a few at bigger odds so if the favourites go in then I’m goosed.
Longchamp
3:05 – Fantastic Moon – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Through Seven Seas – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365.
3:50 – Rogue Millennium – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
4:25 – Rogue Lightning – 1pt win -12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Kerdos – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:00 – Cachet – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John