Hi all,
It’s been very quiet week on the betting front as I had expected. Today I’m back with my weekly ante post angle. This week I have a couple of selections in the upcoming Welsh Grand National and I also add to the Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio with a selection for the Pertemps Series Final.
Before getting to those. I have a few of ante post selections for the two big handicaps at Ascot on Saturday.
Plenty to get through and let’s begin by looking at Saturday’s action.
N.B. All the bets will be 2pts win or 1pt each way.
Ascot – Saturday December 19th
3:00 – Ascot Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m
Normally a decent handicap chase. I was hoping that the Philip Hobbs trained Jerrysback would make his seasonal return in a race where he finished third 12 months ago. Sadly, he was taken out at the five-day stage.
The Conditional (4/1) heads the ante post betting after his recent third in the Ladbroke Trophy. No issues with the ground for the 8-year-old and he looks the right favourite. However, at the prices the two that I like are:
Ardlethen was a well beaten sixth in the Ladbroke Trophy last time. However, he ran better than his final position suggests. He had travelled well for most of the race and only weakened two out. He’s got 11 lengths to find with The Conditional on that running. The drop back to 3m will suit and he’s got each way claims.
Enfant Roi is an intriguing runner, off a light weight. The 6-year-old has been doing all his racing in France and hasn’t been out of the first two on either start over fences. Hard to evaluate his form but he hails from a shrewd yard and will enjoy the testing ground. At around 25/1 he looks worth an each way play.
1pt each way – Ardlethen – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt each way – Enfant Roi – 33/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
The big betting race of the weekend.
Buzz looked good when winning over C&D last month and he’s the right favourite. He’s been hiked up 11lb for that success which makes life tougher but could be graded horse in the making. Henderson could also run handicap debutante Time Flies By. The 5-year-old was runner up here over 2m 3 ½ f, 29-days ago. He was a bit keen that day so the drop back in trip will be in his favour.
Night Edition could makea belated seasonal reappearance here. The 4-year-old finished 2nd of 22 in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Up 2lb for that effort so he needs to have improved to defy his new mark but given he’s only had four starts over hurdles it’s highly likely he can.
Malaya. A previous C&D winner, the mare caught the eye when 2nd of 8 to Kid Commando over C&D 49-days ago. If she can build on her seasonal return then she would have good each way claims here although she’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field.
Lightly Squeeze is one I have had my eye on for a race like this. The 6-year-old won three times (soft & heavy) last season and was in front when falling at the last in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. He was well behind Buzz in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time but that was run on good to soft and he will be more suited Saturday’s underfoot conditions. Has had a wind-up since that Chepstow run. Trainer Harry Fry won this race in 2015 and he’s had this race in mind for the gelding.
Oakley didn’t win last season but placed three times, including over C&D last November, and ran credibly in the Belfair Hurdle and County Hurdle. Ran respectably when 3rd of 11 at Wetherby on his seasonal return. Trainer Philip Hobbs’ Sternrubin dead heated in the 2015 renewal and the 7-year-old is lively contender.
2pts win – Lightly Squeeze – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
1pt each way – Oakley – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Welsh Grand National – Chepstow
It was the Welsh Grand National Trial here earlier in the month can provide a few clues for this race Secret Reprieve made it 2-2 at the course with a comfortable success. Given his liking for the course the 6-year-old will have a great chance with just a 4lb penalty to carry for latest win. At around 5/1 he doesn’t appeal as bet at this stage.
Bobo Mac was a never nearer third in the Grand National Trial. He was given a patient hold up ride and shaped with encouragement on his first start for 263-days. He will be sharper for the run and the wind-op seems to have done the trick. Better can be expected from the 9-year-old and he can win a race off his present mark.
The Hollow Ginge goes well on soft ground and looks a strong stayer. He shaped with promise when a staying 4th of 18 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newmarket. The drying ground would have been against him that day so in the circumstances it was a good effort. Like Bobo Mac, he’s got a good chance of getting into the money.
1pt each way – Bobo Mac – 25/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
1pt each way – The Hollow Ginge – 33/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selections:
Pertemps Series Final
I don’t normally have a punt in Cheltenham Festival handicap race at this stage in the season. However, I’m going to make an exception with Column Of Fire. The 6-year-old a winner of a maiden hurdle at Punchestown in January. Followed up that effort with an even better performance when 3rd of 28 on his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown. He was about to challenge the leader when falling at the last in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. But for that mishap he would have placed at worst. He proved he stayed 3m at Leopardstown so the Pertemps would look an ideal race. Now we haven’t seen him out this season so he has yet to qualifier for the final. Trainer Gordon Elliott knows what sort of horse is needed to win the race as he trained the winner for the past three seasons. Can Column Of Fire make it four? I think he can.
1pt each way – Column Of Fire – 20/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)
There are no selections on Thursday but I will be back on Friday.
Cheers
John