Hi all,
The Randox Aintree Grand National gets underway this afternoon with a seven race card. The meeting, which culminates with the latest running of the Grand National on Saturday, looks sure to provide some top class action.
The cameras are broadcasting five races each day live from Aintree but as I did at the Cheltenham Festival, I will be looking at all the races over the three days.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1
The Aintree Grand National Festival seems to get better year on year. Day one starts off with a bang with the first four races being Grade 1 contests. Sadly, just six or less have been declared for three of those races which is a bit of disappointment given the number of entries.
There was rain around the Liverpool area early this week and more is forecast for Friday. The going is being described as
1:45 – Racehorse Lotto Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Sadly, Jonbon runner-up in the Arkle wasn’t declared. That means its Turners winner Stage Star’s race to lose. As at Cheltenham he seems likely to get an uncontested lead and if Harry Cobden gets the fractions right, he’s the most likely winner. If the ground was no worse than good to soft, you’d have to give Banbridge a chance. However, if every mm of rain that falls is a negative to his chance. Arguably Saint Roi’s 12 length 3rd of 9 to El Fabiolo in Arkle Chase is as good form as Stage Star’s success in the Turners. Arguably he’s the value at around 7/1 but he needs a strong pace to chase which doesn’t seem likely here.
Verdict: Stage Star should get an uncontested lead out in front and is the most likely winner. Saint Roi is overpriced but probably won’t get the decent pace he needs. A no betting race for me.
2:20 – Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Triumph Hurdle third Zenta bid to go two places better here. However, she does face several interesting rivals who missed Cheltenham including Bo Zenith, Nusret and Scriptwriter.
Zenta’s 2½ length 3rd of 15 to Lossiemouth in Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham is the best form on offer. A worthy favourite and the one to beat provided she didn’t have too hard a race at Cheltenham.
Nusret skipped Cheltenham but the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle winner must be respected despite maybe needing better ground.
Scriptwriter never got into any sort of jumping rhythm when a disappointing 35 ¼ lengths 6th of 8 to Nusret in the Adonis. He’s better judged on his ¾ length 2nd of 7 to Comfort Zone in Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham.
Bo Zenith has won his last two starts at Haydock and Stratford. He needs to improve again to beat the favourite but that’s possible and he’s useful juvenile for an inform yard.
Nicky Henderson threw Pawapuri in at the deep end for her hurdle debut. He wasn’t let down as the filly finished a respectable 16 ¼ length 4th of 8 to Nusret in Adonis at Kempton. She will surely win races in the sphere, but she will need to have improved plenty to beat the likes of Zenta. Yard did win this in 2018 & 2019.
Verdict: Zenta is the form pick and her 7lb mares’ allowance will make her tough to beat. Her biggest rival looks to be Nusret but watch out for Pawapuri at big odds. Like the first race it’s a no betting race for me.
2:55 – Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f
Aside from the Grand National this is undoubtedly the race of the week.
Bravemansgame runner-up in the Gold Cup takes on the third Conflated that day as well as A Plus Tard and Ahoy Senor. A Plus Tard was hampered by the fall of Ahoy Senor at the 17th in the Gold Cup and would likely have finished close to Bravemansgame but for that interference. Ahoy Senor was still going well out in front when coming down. He likes Aintree and has won at last two Grand National Festival’s. The most intriguing runner also happens to be the ante post favourite and it’s Shishkin who steps up to 3m for the first time after his recent second in the Ryanair Chase. I think he will enjoy the step up in distance, but he does come with risks attached.
Verdict: A lot depends on how hard a race Bravemansgame had at Cheltenham. He ran poorly behind Ahoy Senor here 12 months ago, so I want to take him on here. Shishkin retains plenty of his old ability and step up in trip looks a positive. That said, like Bravemansgame he does come with risks attached. Ahoy Senor and A Plus Tard have to be respected and the former goes well here and will be tough to beat if allowed an uncontested lead. Despite the risks I’m going for Shishkin in preference to Ahoy Senor.
3:30 – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Constitution Hill so impressive in winning the Champion Hurdle will surely follow up in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle (3:30). He can run stone below his best and still see off his five rivals.
For those looking for an interest in the race. Zanahiyr third in the Champion Hurdle looks the value in the without the favourite market or each way ahead of last year’s winner Epatante.
Verdict: Constitution Hill wins. Zanahiyr at 12/1 & bigger makes each way appeal to chase him home.
4:05 – Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m5f
The first sight of the National fences with 28 hunter chasers set to meet the starter. It’s not a race I spend a lot of time on. Although I did manage to find last year’s winner and I hopefully I have found this year’s too. Famous Clermont. A winner of both Hunter Chases in February. He travelled as well as anything coming to two out in the Cheltenham Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase but his stamina seemed to run out after the last and he eventually finished 6th of 23. He went into the notebook as ideal type for this race after his Cheltenham performance. Last Year’s winner Latenightpass who has won his last two starts in points has to be respected once more. As does ante post favourite Winged Leader who was runner-up in last season’s Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase and comes into the race in good form after three wins in Irish point to point races this season.
Verdict: Last year’s winner Latenightpass is tempting me once again, but I won’t be deserting Famous Clermont.
4:40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m
The first and the only handicap on day one with 14 declared to meet the starter for this valuable contest. Now this is more my sort of race, and I tipped up last year’s winner The Last Day. Can I do it again? Last year’s winner isn’t on my shortlist this time around despite being on an attractive mark. However, there are six or seven that are.
Global Citizen and Third Time Lucki were third and fourth in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. The form of the Grand Annual look strong and the runner-up went one better at Fairyhouse last weekend. The bold jumping Global Citizen likes to be ridden prominently and this C&D suits front runners. Third Time Lucki is well suited to a strongly run two mile handicap chase, but I just wonder if he would prefer better ground.
Sam Thomas saddles a couple of contenders in Grey Diamond and Before Midnight. Grey Diamond ran out a decisive winner at Haydock (soft) last time. He’s up 7lb and in a deeper race here but he’s only had two starts this season and can go close. Before Midnight has dropped down to a good mark, 4lb below last season’s winning mark and would have be respected if reproducing his length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster, off 8lb higher, last January. His best form has come on a sounder surface though so more rain would be a concern.
Douglas Talking has won his last two starts since wind surgery and last time jumped exceptionally to win at Sandown last time. Hiked up 10lb for his latest win and in a better race but is going the right way and is open to further improvement.
The consistent Pay The Piper can’t be discounted. He should get the race run to suit although he does look handicapped up to his best.
Dancing On My Own was a 2 ½ length 2nd of 16 to The Last Day in last year’s race. He was ridden very positively 12 months ago and was only headed at the last. He’s been well below his best on two starts this season but a return to C&D could see the 9-year-old back to his best. Good to soft ground suited him 12 months ago so any further ease in the ground looks a negative.
Verdict: I think this track will suit the front running Global Citizen and provided they don’t go to hard up front is a major contender. The improving Douglas Talking is also likely to be ridden prominently and must be high on the shortlist as is Grey Diamond. The price has gone on Douglas Talking and Global Citizen is a now non runner. So race where I could have had three bets is now down to one.
5:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
A maximum field of 20 mares have been declared. Now bumpers aren’t my normal betting races although I did find the winner of this year’s Cheltenham Bumper. I’m letting previous winning trainers be my angle into the contest.
Willie Mullins won this last year with Ashroe Diamond and he saddles Jolie Coeur Allen and Williamstowndancer. The former a recruit from France looks the pick on her debut for the trainer.
Alan King was successful in the race in 2014 & 2019, and he also saddles two in Baby Sage and Kay Tara Tara. Of his pair I prefer the claims of Baby Sage who made a winning racecourse debut at Warwick last time and looks to have a good future over jumps.
John Queally combined with Jamie Codd to win the race in 2018 and the pair team up with Gaillimh A Run. She’s more exposed than many of her rivals but she’s won her last two bumpers and is progressive nicely. Might need more of a stamina test going forward but she won on soft ground at Naas last time and can go close.
July Flower must be respected on her first since joining Henry De Bromhead. A winner of her two starts when trained in France including Grade 1 Bumper at Fontainebleau last time.
Dysart Enos is another with a future over hurdles next season. However, she’s showed some smart form in bumpers and last time came from behind to get the better of Queens Gamble inside the final 110yds in a Mares’ only Listed bumper at Market Rasen in February.
Seeyouinmydreams and Irish Point winner last April made a winning bumper debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury last month. It was quick ground that day though so softer ground would be a bit of an unknown. She was very keen out in front last time and she won’t likely be able to get away with such exuberance in this company. Looks a good prospect when she learns to settle better.
Verdict: I spent more time on this race than I anticipated. The Willie Mullins trained Jolie Coeur Allen is sure to be popular on stable debut. However, of the Irish challengers I prefer the claims of the experienced Gaillimh A Run. Baby Sage could give Alan King a third success in the race and is worth a saver.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
3:30 – Zanahiyr – 1pt each way – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 2 places)
4:05 – Famous Clermont – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes and Latenightpass – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:40 – Grey Diamond – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:05 – Gaillimh A Run – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Baby Sage – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John