Hi all,
Another good day on Friday with two winners at Aintree and two seconds which was a bit frustrating.
There’s a seven-race card for the final day of Aintree’s Grand National Festival. The highlight of course is the Randox sponsored Grand National. Despite the modifications to the National fences tn recent years. It remains one of the biggest sporting events on the British calendar. The Grand National is the one race during the season that still captures the imagination of a large section of the wider public who come out for their once-a-year flutter.
Besides the “big one” there’s an excellent supporting card with two competitive big field handicaps and three Grade 1’s. As with the last three days I have had a look at all seven races on the Aintree card and today’s betting advice follows at the end of the preview.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2
1:45 – EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f
Despite 22 runners I’m not sure the race will be that strongly run. If that’s the case one of my leading fancies in the race Dans Le Vent may not get the race run to suit. A hold up horse the 9-year-old was a good winner of the valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in November. Has been mostly running well since although was well down the field in the Coral Cup last time. A return to 3m, a flat track and better ground suits and if he gets a good pace to chase has good claims.
Beauport’s consistency was rewarded when he won at Uttoxeter last time. The top-weight could be capable of a bit more progress for the return to 3m and is one for the shortlist.
Likely favourite Winter Fog looked much improved when 2nd of 27 at Leopardstown two starts back and progressed further when a 3 ½ lengths fourth of 22 to Third Wind in Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last time. He travelled well at Cheltenham and remains capable of landing a decent handicap hurdle. One place and 1 ¼ length in front of Winter Fog was Mill Green. The step up 3m has been the making of the 10-year-old and there shouldn’t be much between him and Winter Fog again. Like the favourite you must be slightly worried that they may have had a hard race last time.
Serious Charges is very much on an upward curve and further improved for the step up to 3m when winning on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter last time. He’s up 13lb and in a much deeper race but looks capable of winning a race like this before too long.
Remastered who has been running with credit over fences this season showed he could still mix it in hurdle company when an encouraging 1 ¼ length 3rd of 11 over C&D on his seasonal reappearance. Trainer David Pipe has saddled the winner of this twice since 2014 and has his horse in winning form in the past two weeks.
2:25 – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Three Stripe Life runner-up to Sir Gerhard on his last two starts has the best form shown, so far, by the 14 runners.
Walking On Air, missed Cheltenham butis in the “could be anything category”. The 5-year-old won his sole start over hurdles by 13-lengths at Newbury in January. The step up 2m 4f will suit and he remains an exciting prospect.
Recent winners Elle Est Belle and Good Risk At All need to improve to win in this company and the latter remains capable of better if he jumps with more fluency.
A short head separated Nells Son & North Lodge in a Kelso Grade 2 novice hurdle (soft) last time. The former was getting 5lb from the runner-up that day so there’s a chance the latter can reverse placings on today’s better ground. Today’s 2m 4f suits both horses but the drier ground more the latter.
Colonel Mustard put in a career best when 3- length 3rd of 26 in the County Hurdle last time. That’s strong handicap form and the 7-year-old’s remains quite lightly raced. Has placed form in Grade 1 company in Ireland and can’t be dismissed here.
3:00 – Poundland Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
Arkle novice chase winner Edwardstone is clearly the best of these on from and If he isn’t feeling the effects of a long season should win this.
Gentlemen De Mee, trained by Willie Mullins, looks the one to take advantage should the favourite underperform. The 6-year-old has won his last two starts over fences, making all to win the Grade 3 Flying Bolt Novices’ Chase at Navan last month. He’s got 3lb to find on official ratings with Edwardstone and looks worth is place in Grade 1 company.
3:35 – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Flooring Porter was able to dictate the pace when winning the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham for the second year running. Not sure that get an easy lead today with the front running Ashdale Bob also in the field. Flooring Porter remains the one to beat.
Of those who finished behind him at Cheltenham runner-up Thyme Hill looks the most likely to do so. The 8-year-old. who was successful in this race 12 months, would have been suited by a stronger gallop last time. Not ideally placed in a tactical race if he gets a more even pace can get closer to the favourite over a C&D that suits.
Champ was a 1 ¾ length further back in fourth in the Stayers. He beat Thyme Hill at Ascot in December and is another who would have preferred a more even gallop at Cheltenham. Talented on his day but his limitations have been a bit exposed on his last two starts.
4:15 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f
A cracking 18 runner handicap chase to prime us for the “big one”. Commodore, trained by Venetia Williams, was on my short list for this but has managed to sneak in at the bottom of the weights for the National so now misses this.
Shan Blue looked certain to win the Grade 2 Charlie Hill Chase at Wetherby back in October. Was well clear before taking a heavy fall three out. Well beaten behind Allaho in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase last time. Will find the return to handicap company more to his liking here. Looks a worthy favourite, if you accept his Charlie Hall performance at face value. However, he doesn’t make any appeal to me at around 5/2. That said the Dan Skelton yard had a well handicapped horse in Langer Dan win here yesterday.
Cape Du Nord returned to winning ways when landing a valuable 3m handicap chase at Kempton last time. He’s now 8lb higher but should remain competitive.
Killer Kane bids for the hat trick after small field handicap chase wins at Kempton and Sandown. He’s up 5lb for his latest success but is going the right way and shouldn’t be far away again.
Espoir De Romay, trained by Kim Bailey who saddled last year’s winner, was a very useful novice chaser last season. He hasn’t performed up to the level of last season’s form on either start this season, including when the 5/4 beaten favourite in a Listed Chase at Kelso last month. Remains capable of better though and he maybe needed his last race after a four-month layoff.
Scene Not Herd looked a very progressive handicap chaser, when jumping well to win his first three starts over fences. Better was expected from the 7-year- old before he finished a well beaten 4th of 6 to Killer Kane at Sandown last time. The ground was soft at Sandown though and his winning form earlier in the season came on good to soft/good ground. Needs to bounce back but remains with potential if you ignore his last run.
Tea Clipper, a winner on good to firm on his chase debut in October, bounced back from two underwhelming runs in Graded company when a 11-length 4th of 24 to Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his handicap chase debut. The return to better ground suited him last time. Third in last season’s Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and he followed up with a similar effort when 3rd of 19 in a 3m handicap hurdle here 12 months ago. He’s high on my shortlist for the race.
5:15 – Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 4m 2 ½ f
I had fourteen on my shortlist for the race earlier in the week. Whilst I have had a fair amount of success in the race in the past decade. It’s a race I see as a bit of fun rather than being anything more serious.
When you have 40 runners there’s always a chance that there will be a big priced winner of the race. Auroras Encore (66/1,) in 2013, says hi! However, looking at the last five renewals of the race. Four of the last five winners where in the first four in betting forecast.
If you’re looking to whittle the field down to a manageable number of contenders? Here are some very recent trends that may help.
5/5 winners were aged 8yo to 9yo.
5/5 winners had run in a Grade 1 race.
5/5 winners had 10+ starts over fences. Since 2008 horses with less than ten runs over fences are 0 winners from 92 runners 7 placed. If you go even further back to 1997, its 2 winners from 229 runners 17 placed. The last horse to win having had nine or less starts over the larger obstacles was Earth Summit in 1998.
4/5 had won a race in their last three starts.
Snow Leopardess, Delta Work and last year’s third Any Second Now are vying for favouritism. The first named will be popular with the once-a-year punters. She’s a grey, a mare and a mum to boot. The race usually produces a feel-good story winner and Snow Leopardess ticks plenty of those boxes Delta Work bounced back to winning form when winning the Cross Country at Cheltenham last time and looks well treated now.
Last year’s winner Minella Times is 15lb higher this time around. It would be some performance if he can win again off his new mark. Any Second Now gets 8lb from Minella Times for 8 ¼ length beating. However, he looked a shade unlucky in the run, was badly hampered by a faller at the twelfth which meant he lost his place, meanwhile the winner got the perfect passage through the race. Of the front four at the head of the market at the prices I like Any Second Now who’s yard and the runner-up in yesterday’s Topham.
Éclair Surf really got his jumping together to win the Classic Chase at Warwick two starts back. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up to Scottish Grand National Winner Win My Wings in the Eider Chase. The 8-year-old has only had a NINE starts over the larger obstacles.
Besides Éclair Surf trainer Emma Lavelle also seems likely to run De Rasher Counter. The 10-year-old has only had four starts since winning the 2019 Ladbroke Trophy. He ran a satisfactory prep for this when fourth in the Denman Chase at Newbury after a 489-day layoff.] last time. Can race off the same mark as when winning the Ladbroke.
Fiddlerontheroof finished runner-up in this season’s Ladbroke Trophy. He’s since gone onto finish runner-up at Ascot. The Labdroke Trophy form hasn’t really worked out so far but he ticks plenty of boxes and must be high on anyone’s shortlist.
Kildisart shaped as if he has retained plenty of ability when a never nearer 22 ½ length 4th of 10 at Newbury, over an inadequate 2m 6 ½ f, last month. He’s another unexposed over long distances and looks nicely treated on the best of his back form.
Longhouse Poet an impressive winner of the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park two starts back. Unexposed as a stayer and has a touch of class. I was hoping that the 8-year-old would go for the Irish National. However, it looks like he will be coming here instead. He’s only had six starts over fences but trainer Martin Brassil won the race in 2006 so knows the type of horse required to win. The softer the ground the better his chance.
Dingo Dollar was a ¾ length 2nd of 22 in last season’s Scottish Grand National, off his present mark. Three runs this season, was a decent 3rd of 12 in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November, suggest he’s been campaigned with this race in mind. He looks overpriced on his best form but probably needs good ground and didn’t seem to take to the fences when running in the Grand Sefton for his previous trainer although that run did come on soft ground.
Enjoy D’allen will be racing for the first time in the silks of J P McManus. A 4 ½ length 3rd of 28 in last year’s Irish Grand National. He’s clearly well suited to a big field as he showed this season when a 3-length 3rd of 28 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas. Another to tick plenty of boxes and he’s unexposed over marathon trips. The blinkers he wore for the first time in last season’s Irish Grand National return for the first time since that improved performance.
Schoolboy Hours, has managed to sneak into race at the bottom of the weight, finally got off the mark on his 10th attempt over fences when winning the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was sent off the 5/1 joint favourite for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. The 8-year-old was making steady headway and getting into the race when stumbling on landing four out. It was a race ending mistake and he was pulled coming to two out. Very much one to consider now he’s managed to get into the race.
My approach to this year’s race is a simple one. I will be having four bets in the race and will be looking to back a couple at the front of the betting and supplement them with a couple at bigger odds.
6:15 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f
Twelve last time out winners among the twenty runners most of whom who are open to more progress. Tells you all you need to know about the race. Add in the likelihood of pace melt down and you have a race that looks a plenty tricky enough concluding race.
Rath Gaul Boy won a Leopardstown bumper on his racecourse debut last month. The Willie Mullins trained and likely favourite looked useful the last day and he should relish the forecast strong pace. Will be popular with punters in the ‘getting out stakes’ and the yard did win the mares’ bumper here on Thursday.
Ernest Grey made it 2-2 in bumpers when winning at Warwick under a 7lb penalty last time. The form of his Warwick success should work out well and he looks a smart hurdling prospect for next season. Trainer Alan King has had bumpers winners at this meeting in the past.
Jonjo O’Neill last won this race in 2013 but his runner Imperial Bede looks to have decent claims here. The 4-year-old has decent form in French bumpers, including a win at Fontainebleau in September. First start since joining the trainer and is an each- way contender.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
1:45 – 1pt win – Dans Le Vent – 14/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Serious Charges – 9/1 @ Bet365
4:15 – 1pt win – Tea Clipper – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Scene Not Herd – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
5:15 – 1pt win – Éclair Surf – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Enjoy D’allen – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, 1pt win – Any Second Now – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Dingo Dollar – 66/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds).
Cheers
John