Hi all,
Racing returns at Newmarket for the first time in 2020. It’s the first of four days of action at flat racing’s HQ and it’s a bumper ten race card although the first six races on the card are for 2-year-old’s.
The Group 3 Pavilion Stakes, normally run at Ascot, is the highlight of a ten-race card on the all-weather at Newcastle. I have a selection in the Pavilion Stakes and also one running at Newmarket.
Newcastle
3:55 – Betway Pavilion Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
A field of 14 three -year-old’s are set to go to post for a race that was one last season by Calyx. The winner of the race will no doubt become one of the leading fancies for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
Malotru showed he had trained on from two to three when winning a 7f Listed race at Lingfield in February. That was a career best effort and the drop back to 6f should inconvenience the colt who can go well.
A’Ali did well as a juvenile, winning three Group 2 races, including the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Flying Childers at Doncaster all at 5f, before disappointing in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint at Santa Anita in November. If he’s trained on and is effective over 6f then he will be there at the finish even though he has to give 4lb to his main rivals.
Ventura Rebel won his first two starts as juvenile before running A’Ali (gets 4lb here) to a neck in the Norfolk Stakes. The colt then disappointed when 5/4 favourite for the Super Sprint at Newbury and wasn’t seen out after that run which suggests that something was amiss with him that day. Looked in need of an extra furlong at Newbury so the step up to 6f should suit.
Dream Shot was alsoa useful juvenile winning at Goodwood (racecourse debut) & Chelmsford. The son of Dream Ahead ended last season with career best RPR’s, when beaten a length by A’Ali in the Flying Childers and occupying the same spot in a Group 3 at Dundalk in October. Given he won first time up he should be fit enough to himself justice and on the evidence of his runs at both Doncaster & Dundalk he should be suited by today’s step back up to 6f. Trainer James Tate is 6 winners from 22 runners 27% over C&D. And it’s also worth noting his exceptionally good record in the past three years with horses returning from a 121+day break – 26 winners from 75 runners 35% +11.83 A/E 1.54 40 placed 53%. Albeit those going off 6/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 29 runners 4 placed 14%
Verdict: A’Ali has the best juvenile form. Whilst Malotru has shown he’s trained on and could be capable of more progress back sprinting. Ventura Rebel won first time up last year and if over what kept him off the track from July has each way claims. Another with each way claims is Dream Shot, also gets 4lb from A’Ali, and has a chance of reversing placings with that one over today’s extra furlong.
0.5pts each way – Dream Shot – 10/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 0dds)
Newmarket
4:45 – Mio Mento looks set to be a popular choice with punters in this 6f handicap. The filly should go close on her first start since finishing a close up second at Newcastle back in March. Despite her obvious claims it may pay to take a chance with the Pam Sly trained DRUMMOND WARRIOR. The four-year-old won his first two starts last season (both at Windsor) before finishing a neck second on the July Course, off 1lb higher. Didn’t beat a rival on either of his last two starts but he surely didn’t give his true running on either occasion and a subsequent wind-op could see him bounce back this year. We know the 4-year-old can win first time up and he looks on a good mark for his return to action. Trainer Pam Sly also has a great record with her runners returning from a 120+ day layoff – 13 winners from 64 runners 20% +104.25 A/E 1.89 22 placed 34%. At around 12/1 the 4-year-old looks worth chancing each way.
1pt each way – Drummond Warrior – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John