Hi all,
More Grade 1 action to be found at Leopardstown for the final day of its Christmas meeting. And for those of you fortunate to be off today ITV4 will be covering four races from Leopardstown and two from Doncaster. Whilst the best quality action is at Leopardstown the most interesting race from a betting perspective is at Doncaster. There’s also a decent card at Kelso with several competitive handicaps for punters to get stuck into.
Inside today’s main piece I will be looking at the best of the action from both Leopardstown and Doncaster on ITV. With today’s betting advice at the end of the main piece.
Leopardstown
1:45 – Neville Hotels Novice Chase (3m)
The first of the Grade 1’s is the Run over 3m its looks between the big two Gaillard Du Mesnil and Three Stripe Life. Experienced second season novice chaser Gaillard Du Mesnil was a 4 ½ length 2nd of 10 to Mighty Potter in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase (2m 4f) at Fairyhouse last time. That was a good effort from 6-year-old against some race fit rivals and over a distance short of his best. He will be tough to beat with that effort under his belt.
Three Stripe Life, a Grade 1 winning novice hurdler last season, made a winning start to his chase career at Naas last month. He was sent off the 5/2 favourite for the Drinmore on that back off that effort and was still going well when his jockey lost his irons at the eighth. Looks a serious rival to Gaillard Du Mesnil with the first time tongue tie fitted.
2:20 – Matheson Hurdle (2m)
Just five have been declared for the Grade 1 Three of them are trained by Willie Mullins: State Man, Sharjah & Vauban.
Sharjah bids for a fifth successive win in the race.The 9-year-old was a shade below par when a 4 length 2nd of 4 to State Man in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on seasonal return. Better expected here for what is his ‘Champion Hurdle’. I still think that State Man will confirm places with him and maintain his position as the only serious rival to Constitution Hill in the 2m hurdling division.
Vauban makes his seasonal return, and the dual Grade 1 winning juvenile hurdler must be respected. I think he may need the run but if he was to make a winning return to action and beat State Man he would become the principle Irish hope for the Champion Hurdle. Pied Piper looks held by Vauban on their running in last season’s Triumph Hurdle. However, he’s got race fitness on his side after wins at Cheltenham & Down Royal this autumn.
Best of the rest of the card:
12:00 – Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (2m 5f)
Glamorgan Duke beat 23 rivals in a C&D handicap chase in February 2021. Has been lightly races since (just six starts) and hasn’t reproduced his C&D winning form. Hard to say how much ability he retains but he’s 4lb below his last winning mark.
Gordon Elliott looks likely to saddle the favourite in Ballykeel who looks handily weighted for his handicap chase debut and should be able to win races in the sphere.
Handsworth is a useful enough handicap chaser as he showed when winning a handicap chase at Naas in January. The 7-year-old has returned from a summer break in good form finishng runner-up at Wexford before a career best when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 13 to Brave Seasca at Aintree 26-days ago. He was a shade faltered by his proximity to the eased down winner but a serious contender here.
2:55 – I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle
Green Glory has been run well enough on four starts in novice company to think he can do better now going handicapping. Looks on a fair mark based on his winning bumper performance at Punchestown in April. Yard had a winner at Limerick on Wednesday.
The Gradual Scope is more exposed over hurdles than Green Glory but got off the mark at the 12th attempt when successful at Kilbeggan in June. He was strong at the finish that day and a strongly run 2m 4f should suit the 5-year-old.
Ella Perfecta looked progressive whenwinning a handicap hurdle debut at Listowel two starts back. However, the mare disappointed when only 8th of 10 at Cheltenham last time. Questions to answer of that performance but like The Gradual Slope has each way claims if bouncing back here.
Doncaster
Of the two races from Doncaster in ITV this afternoon the 3m handicap chase (2:40) is the most competitive.
2:40 – Eleven have been declared. With Becher Handicap Chase runner-up Gesskille the bookies ‘early bird’ favourite. He’s 4lb higher here but a consistent sort should run well once more. I have this race down as 6/1 the field race so his 7/2 odds don’t appeal from a value perspective.
Storm Control a winner at Newbury in January off today’s mark looked set to follow up when clear at the last in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase over C&D. However, he idled badly on the run in and had to settle for second. The first time visor replaces the blinkers and if the ground eases need’s respecting.
Trainer Alex Hales has two interesting contenders in Boldmere & Omar Maretti. The former was a C&D winner (this race in 2019) for his previous yard. The 9-year-old returns from a mammoth 607-day layoff today and if he’s ready to roll on first start for his new yard is too well handicapped to ignore. Omar Maretti 2-4 over fences ended last season with disappointing effort when pulling up in the Kim Muir Chase (9/1) at the Cheltenham Festival. His jumping didn’t hold up in a big field that day. And a return to a smaller field and a flatter track should suit the 8-year-old. He’s gone well fresh in the past and is a contender.
Nestor Park, a winner at Newbury in February, made a promising return to action when 3 ¾ length 3rd of 9 at Haydock last month. He’s just 5lb above his last winning mark and remains competitively weighted for an inform yard.
Burrows Diamond posted a career best over fences when winning at Wetherby (soft) earlier this month. That was the 7-year-old’s first start at 3m. Whilst she’s 7lb higher here he’s unexposed at the distance and not ruled out if the ground eases.
Coeur Serein was back to his best when a ½ length 2nd of 9 at Chepstow 26-days ago. Has been raised 5lb for that effort but remains a contender for a yard that’s been among the winners over Christmas.
3:10 – bet365 Yorkshire Silver Vase mares’ Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 4 ½ f
Last year’s winner Zambella will be tough to beat, especially if she gets her own way out in front. Pink Legend finished 4 lengths in front of Zambella when runner-up to Elimay in the Mares Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. She struggled against the gelding when a well beaten 6th of 7 in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase on her seasonal return 25-days ago. Likely to bounce back sometime this season and she will appreciate today’s calmer waters.
Kelso
12:28 – Emitom goes well on heavy ground. A Grade 2 winning hurdler at Haydock in February 2020 he’s been given a chance by the handicapper and showed he retains some of his old ability when a 17 length 4th of 11 at Lingfield on seasonal return last month. Should strip fitter for that run and the yard is among the winners.
Three of Lissen To The Lady’s career wins have come over C&D. And the mare wasn’t subjected to hard race on her seasonal return when a 15 ½ length 5th of 10 here last month. Heavy ground would be a bit of an unknown but she’s capable of a good run at a venue that suits.
1:03 – Donny Boy, a 2 mile hurdle winner here last season, didn’t seem to stay 2m 4f on his chase debut at Carlisle on seasonal return 60-days ago. Shaped well enough that day to think he can win races over the larger obstacles. The tongue tie goes on for the first time and the heavy ground shouldn’t pose any problems back down in trip
Jetoile is one of the least exposed of these over fences. The 7-year-old a useful novice hurdler who finished a 12 length runner-up to Constitution Hill in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January. He’s shaped well enough on his three starts over fences to think that he can do well now going handicapping.
A rare poor run from Cedar Hill at Kelso when last of six here 25-days ago. Better expected and it’s worth remembering he’s 4-8, 7 places over C&D and had made an encouraging seasonal return at Ayr previously.
1:38 – Old Painless made a winning chase debut at Plumpton nine days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that success but the 6-year-old is open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles. Good chance for a yard going well.
Bill Baxter left his Bangor chase debut run well behind when beating subsequent winner Mucho Mas at Lingfield (2m 4f) last month. The wind-op certainly had the desired effect as he was strong at the finish last time. Up 5lb but the step up to an extended 2m 6f should suit and bring out more progressive in the 6-year-old.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
2:55 – The Gradual Slope – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
2:40 – Boldmere – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365 and Omar Maretti – 1pt win – 6/1 @Coral & Ladbrokes
Kelso
12:28 – Emitom – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 and Lissen To The Lady -`1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1:03 – Jetoile – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bett365
1:38 – Bill Baxter – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John