Hi all,
I thought we were in for one of those days but the best was left until last when May Sonic (9/1 BOG) made all for an impressive win at Kempton yesterday evening. A tidy profit on the day and we have plenty more betting opportunities over the next four days. Starting with a good card at Sandown this afternoon.
It’s not often during the winter that I have such an in-depth preview on a Thursday. The highlight of Sandown’s seven race card is the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2:30). I have had a look at four of the Sandown races in today’s preview.
Sandown
1:55 – Elmbridge Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
Just the seven are set to go to post for this handicap chase but you can make some sort of case for all of them.
Likely favourite Numitor bids for the hat trick after win at Ffos Las and latterly Wincanton two weeks ago. He’s 8lb higher in better race but is going the right way and capable of defying it.
Early Du Lemo was only beaten a neck over C&D when returning from 689-day layoff before falling at Ascot. Got around safely when 4th over C&D, behind Ibleo, last month, but his jumping can be either brilliant or dreadful. Likes to get on with it from the front but then so do several others in the field including Numitor.
Grey Diamond returned from a 350-day break, on his first start for Sam Thomas, when 3rd of 6 at Newbury last month. Given how testing it was that day this was a solid return to action by the 7-year-old. He kept jumping to his right at Newbury so going this way round is a positive. Just three starts over fences and capable of more progress. He’s another who likes to be prominently raced.
Belargus has been in decent form over fences this season but he’s on a losing run that goes back 2-years. Likely to be ridden more patiently and could get the race run to suit.
Enzo D’Airy was impressive when winning at Ascot (2m 1f) in December. Flopped over 2m 4f at Ludlow 28-days ago. The drop back in trip should be more to his liking and he’s only had three starts over fences. He’s another who could get the right pace set up.
Flegmatik won at Carlisle on his chase debut but disappointed over 2m 4f on his next start, probably didn’t stay and then pulled up behind Enzo D’Airy at Ascot. Get’s the first time cheekpieces here and the Dan Skelton yard is in great form. Might want better ground though.
Verdict: Numitor is the one to beat. Belargus could get the race run to suit, as could Enzo D’Airy but at the prices I’m just siding with Grey Diamond who shaped with promise on his first start for Sam Thomas at Newbury .
1pt win – Grey Diamond – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
2:30 – Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 4f
Little River Bay heads the market and she bids for the four timer here. She’s ground versatile and stays 2m 4f. Plenty to like about her chance.
Little Mo comes down from Scotland in search of black type and the 9-year-old can’t be ruled out on her hat trick bid.
Harry Fry saddled the winner of the race in 2016 and runs Misty Whisky who won a Listed mares’ bumper here two years ago. The 7-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles this season before putting up an even better performance against the geldings when 2nd of 20 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. I would strongly fancy Misty Whisky here, if her yard was in better form.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond the favourite Little River Bay but Misty Whisky looks a shade of value due to the Harry Fry yard being on the cold list.
1pt win – Misty Whisky – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:05 – Kingston Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f
Caltex looks well handicapped on his heavy ground win at Leicester 12 months ago. He’s struggled since that win though last time was a step back in the right direction when 3rd of 9 at Market Rasen last time.
One place ahead of Caltex at Market Rasen was Mac Tottie. The 8-year-old had previously taken advantage of good mark when winning at the same venue on his previous start. The drop back to 2m 4f should be of more benefit to him more than Caltex although the stiffer track might suit the latter.
Mister Murchan made it 2-4 over fences when winning at Wincanton28-days ago.He ticks the boxes marked going and distance and although he’s been raised 8lb for that last success should go close.
Not Another Muddle won here over 1m 7 ½ f two years ago, off 2lb higher and wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham a month later. Well handicapped on his best form but the 10-year-old has just three starts since April 2019 and didn’t look he was ready to win at Chepstow 40-days ago.
No Getaway, a half-brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur, ran with plenty of promise when runner-up on his chase debut at Market Rasen two starts back. Didn’t build on that performance when well beaten at Newbury 64-days ago. Drop back in trip looks a positive and he’s had a wind-op since last run.
Verdict: It could be a good day for favourite backers and Mister Murchan has solid claims. I’m sure No Getaway can win a race off his present mark and hopefully it can be today.
1pt win – No Getaway – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:15 – Littleworth Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m
Eclair Surf made all to win at Hereford two starts back. He was ridden slightly more patiently when only 4th of 8 at Exeter 39-days ago. Looks interesting for the step up to 3m, won a heavy ground point over the distance so has a good chance of staying.
Cuban Pete won both his two starts this season’ Lost nothing in defeat when 3rd of 14 in competitive Newbury handicap in December. Jumped to his right at Newbury and will be happier going right-handed.
Skipthecuddles bounced back to form when 3rd of 10 at Newbury last month and has dropped down to an attractive mark. It was heavy at Newbury but the 10-year-old’s best previous form had come on better ground.
Highest Sun is only 1-9 over fences but he’s finished fourth on his last two starts in Class 2 contests at Newbury & Haydock. This is a slightly easier race but his jumping will be tested here. Colin Tizzard yard is in better form now.
Verdict: When I oppose a Venetia Williams horse, they normally win, so I’m loathe to go against Cuban Pete who will be better going right-handed. Despite slight stamina doubts I’m going with Eclair Surf.
1pt win – Eclair Surf – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Cheers
John