Hi all,
Day four of Royal Ascot. It’s set to be a hot day both on and off the track with the glorious sunshine expected to continue for one more day. We have two Group 1 races on today’s seven race card the first being a competitive looking Commonwealth Cup (3:05). However, the race of the day is a mouthwatering Coronation Stakes (4:20). With challengers from Ireland, France and two fillies coming over from the USA. It has a real international feel to it and could be one of the races of the week.
Not sure what’s been happening with the draw on the straight course but on the evidence of the last couple of day’s you need to be drawn middle to far side.
Another full day’s preview with betting advice at the end of the main piece.
2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
The juvenile fillies get Friday’s card underway with the latest running of the Group 3 Albany Stakes (2:30). Mediate, trained by Aidan O’Brien, sets the standard having won both career starts. There should be more to come from the daughter of No Nay Never and she looks a worthy market leader. The O’Brien filly faces 17 rivals the best of who look to be Mawj who looked a Group class juvenile filly in the making after a winning racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. The other filly who looks capable of a big run in pattern company is Fully Wet. The daughter of Kodiac overcame inexperience to make a winning racecourse debut at Goodwood (good to soft). She’s capable of going close if handling today’s quicker ground.
3:05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) – 6f
The race should be run to suit Perfect Power. He didn’t stay a mile in the 2,000 Guineas but this more his trip. A top juvenile sprinter last season this could be his chance to land a Group 1 as 3-year-old.
El Caballo comes into the race in great form having won his last six starts. The colt proved he was good on turf as the all-weather when digging deep to hold off Flaming Rib in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes last time. There was a neck between him and Flaming Rib at Haydock, but Ascot’s stiffer track may suit El Cabello better. Wings Of War bounced back to his best when finishing 2 lengths back in third in the Sandy Lane. I can see him going well again and he could be suited by the big-field/strong-pace scenario of the race.
There was plenty to like about Twilight Jet’s seasonal return win at Naas last month. He’s returned to action arguably better than ever and looks to have a big chance.
Tiber Flow had Ehraz a short head back in second when winning a Listed race at Newbury last time. The winner get’s the application of the first time cheekpieces today and he’s probably capable of better. Ehraz conceded first tun to Tiber Flow that day and finished his race off strongly. He’s well suited to quick ground and the forecast strong pace will suit. A winner of a C&D maiden last season so the track suits and I think he can reverse placings with Tiber Flow.
3:40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Just Fine made a good seasonal reappearance when a 3 length third of 11 at York last time. The return to 1m 4f suited the 4-year-old and a big run is expected by the Sir Michael Stoute trained gelding. Contact maintained his improvement when winning at Haydock last time. A 6lb rise in the weights makes life tougher for the 4-year-old but he shouldn’t be far away with. Candleford had to much pace for some older more exposed handicappers when successful at Kempton in November. He’s been raised 6lb for that win but remains on a competitive mark and if he’s ready to roll after an absence can go close. Mashoor comes into the race in good form after an impressive success in a valuable handicap at the Curragh (1m 2f) last month. He’s 12lb higher but should go well given his unexposed profile, if stall 1 isn’t an inconvenience. Gold Maze made a promising stable debut when a 6 length 5th of 16 in a C&D handicap last time. He will be sharper for that run and can go well at a price. Ajero a very useful handicap hurdler has done well since switching to the flat. The 7-year-old has finished runner-up on all his three starts on the level. A mark of 89 looks more than workable for his handicap debut for the step up to 1m 4f and he’s a very interesting contender.
4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The race of the day and it could be the race of the week. Last season’s top juvenile filly Inspiral makes a belated seasonal return after being forced to miss the 1,000 Guineas. The form of her Fillies Mile win has proved very strong form. Unbeaten on all her four career starts she will be tough to beat if training on from two to three and is fit from a long layoff. Cachet was beaten 2 ¾ length by Inspiral in the Fillies Mile but she showed she had trained on well when making all to win the 1,000 Guineas and then finishing runner-up in the French 1,000 Guineas. Mangoustine beat Cachet by a head last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but I think the French filly is open to further improvement if she handles today’s much quicker ground. Prosperous Voyage was a neck behind Cachet in the 1,000 Guineas and today’s stiffer mile could see her reverse placings with the winner. Discoveries was 5 lengths behind the winner in the 1,000 Guineas she was said to have not handled the dip at Newmarket and Ascot should suit her more. Her full sister and half-sister both won this race in the past and a better run can be expected on ground that will suit.
The American challengers Spendarella and Pizza Bianca must be respected. The latter won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf on firm ground with Cachet a length back in fourth. Of the pair preference is for the unbeaten Spendarella. She’s open to further improvement, the ground will suit and if she handles the track, she can go well with William Buick a good jockey booking.
5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m
Heredia did well to win at York after missing the break last time. She’s now 3-3 and although she’s been raised 7lb for her York success she could be the proverbial Group horse in handicap. However, she will need to be off a mark of 98.
Trainer Charlie Fellowes & jockey Hayley Turner are 2-2 when teaming up in the race and they combine with Fresh Hope. She still looked a bit green when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster last time. She’s only been raised 4lb for her latest success but looks on a winnable mark.
Persist built on her juvenile promise when winning a Ripon maiden 23-days ago. Looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut off a mark of 83 and should be bang there from what looks a good draw in stall 11.
Crenelle looked a useful filly when winning a Newmarket maiden two starts back. The runner-up has since gone on to win a Listed race at York. Not as good when stepped up to 1m 2f in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes last time but must be respected back down to a mile on her handicap debut. Not sure though that stall 24 is ideal given events so far this week on the straight course.
In the same colours as Crenelle is Invigilate who won Leicester maiden on her final juvenile start. The daughter of Acclamation showed improved for the step into handicap company when a 1 length 2nd of 7 to one of today’s rivals Washraa. The winner is 3lb worse off today and is capable of a good run, but I fancy Invigilate can reverse placings with her today given she was conceding race fitness that day. If it wasn’t for stall 29. I would really fancy her given she’s bred to be better than an 82 rated filly.
Gatecrasher Girl goes well on fast ground, and she’s won all three starts this year. A strongly run mile will suit her and she’s not discounted given her likeable profile. Love Interest seems to be improving with racing and she was a good 3rd of 12 to Fonteyn in Listed race at York last time. She was keen that day and if he can settle better in today’s bigger field, she’s in with a chance on her handicap debut.
5:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m 4f
Not the best of renewals it must be said. Changingtheguard finished 9 ¼ length 5th of 17 in the Derby last time. He probably deserves to be favourite but is vulnerable on quick ground. Ottoman Fleet built on his debut promise when winning a Newmarket Listed race last month. There were still signs of greenness that day and the gelding is open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f. Savvy Victory was 1 ¾ lengths behind Ottoman Fleet last time. Today’s track should suit him better than Newmarket, as should the step up to 1m 4f. Whether he wants the ground as quick as is likely today, I’m not so sure.
6:10 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Twenty eight have been declared for a competitive looking concluding handicap. Most of the pace looks to be down the middle although the speedy Romantic Time will take them along near side. Given the forecast very strong pace It looks like it will pay to go with those more patiently ridden.
Latin Lover will likely be held up from stall 11. He’s got a 6lb penalty for his 6f Kempton success 9-days ago but is likely to be there or thereabouts. Loves Me Likearock has run well on her last two starts at Newmarket over 6f. I don’t think she handled the dip that well so Ascot should suit her better. Navello will be ridden patiently and likes quick ground. However, he’s vulnerable to better treated rivals although a stiff 5f should suit.
Ladies Church useful juvenile made an excellent seasonal return when neck 2nd of 13 to Sacred Bridge in a Listed race at Cork last month. Trainer Johnny Murtagh’s runners this week have been running well this week and I think she’s got a big chance from a handy draw in stall 14.
Korker improved to win at York last time. His yard won this race last year and although he’s up 9lb for that win won’t be far away if stall 24 isn’t an issue.
Sterling Knight has won both this season’s starts. Both those wins have come over 6f, including here last time. The drop back to 5f shouldn’t be an issue and a 6lb rise in the weights doesn’t look to harsh for the gelding who is going the right way and could be well drawn in stall 12.
At big odds you couldn’t rule out a big performance from Bond Chairman who finished 4th of 27 in last season’s Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over C&D. First start for 252 days but he did win on his racecourse debut last season so fitness might not be an issue. Stall 28 might not be ideal though, but he’s been gelded since his last run, and doesn’t look badly treated for his handicap debut.
Betting Advice:
Royal Ascot
3:40 – 1pt win – Ajero – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Mashoor – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:20 – 1pt win – Spendarella – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – 1pt win – Invigilate – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Fresh Hope – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
6:10 – 1pt win – Ladies Church – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and 1pt win – Latin Lover – 10/1 – Gen
Cheers
John