Hi all,
I’m back from my holiday and raring to go for five days of thrilling racing at Royal Ascot. In today’s preview I’m going to look at all seven races on day one of the meeting.
For those of you new to the service you will find today’s selections and betting advice at the end of the main piece. However, I do suggest you read the race previews as I believe they are a good source of information.
Royal Ascot – Day 1
2:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Inspiral makes her belated seasonal reappearance at the meeting as she did 12 months ago when producing a great change of gear to win the Coronation Stakes. On her day she’s arguably one of the best milers around as she showed when winning the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last August. A worthy enough favourite but she can throw in a poor performance, and I want to take her on.
Charlie Appleby runs a couple of big contenders in Modern Games & Native Trail. The first named won his first Group 1 in England when winning last months Lockinge Stake at Newbury. He’s more consistent than Inspiral and should give his running once more.
Native Trail runner-up in last year’s 2,000 Guineas before going one place better in the Irish version hasn’t recaptured that level of form on his last two starts but if he does, he would be a major player.
Arguably the most fascinating of the twelve runners is Triple Time who I had fancied for the Lockinge Stakes before he was a late non-runner. The 4-year-oldreturned from a 12 month absence to win a Group 3 at Haydock last September. He disappointed in a Group 2 at Longchamp the following month when unsuited by the testing ground. Although he’s got plenty to find on ratings he remains with potential and Kevin Ryan runners in Group 1’s should never be underestimated.
Verdict: Not a vintage renewal of the race but there’s a good sized field and it looks like a competitive race. On a going day Inspiral is the most likely winner. However, she can throw in a poor run and if she does then Native Trail could be the one to take advantage, but he does need to bounce back from a lesser run on his seasonal return. Of the rest I can see Triple Time outrunning big odds provided we get a sound surface.
3:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
River Tiber looked an exciting juvenile prospect when winning at Navan on his racecourse debut and backed up that impression when defying a penalty back at Naas next time. Looks to have a great chance of giving Aidan O’Brien a tenth Coventry success.
Asadna had the times/sectional guys raving when winning at Ripon on his racecourse debut last month. The clock doesn’t lie but this is a different race and track and I think he’s worth opposing.
Givemethebeatboys won a Navan maiden on his racecourse debut improved again to take the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. The son Bungle Inthejungle looked well suited to the better ground last time and must be respected with Dettori booked. A sharp, professional juvenile there’s another big performance in the colt.
Archie Watson & Hollie Doyle combined to win last year’s renewal, so you have to respect their runner Army Ethos who made all to win an Ayr maiden on his racecourse debut 27 days ago.
Bucanero Fuerte won produced a smart performance to win the first juvenile race of the new Irish Flat season. The son of Wootton Bassett looked like an above average juvenile that day. He is either a very good mover or he just relished the testing ground. Given his full brother Beat Le Bon was very effective on quick ground there are grounds for optimism that he can do just as well on a sounder surface and he’s not one to underestimate.
Verdict: River Tiber and Asadna have clear claims as does Givemethebeatboys with Frankie booked. Bucanero Fuerte caught my eye when winning on his racecourse debut but as we haven’t seen him since March means the market seems to have forgotten about the colt. Granted we don’t know about quick ground for him, but he looks a good mover and should be fine on the surface.
3:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) – 5f
Highfield Princess proved herself the best sprinter in Europe last season winning five times including three Group 1’s. The mare made an encouraging seasonal reappearance under a Group 1 penalty when a ½ length 2nd of 10 to the progressive Azure Blue at York last month. There seems to be plenty of stable confidence that this likeable 6-year-old can add another Group 1 to her record.
Australian sprinters always must be respected so you can see why Coolangatta is so high up in the betting. The 3-year-old has won her last two starts over 5f in Group 1 company in Australia and could be something special.
Manaccan, a winner of two Listed races at Doncaster & Ascot last autumn before ending his 2022 campaign with a win in a Group 3 at Dundalk, caught my eye when an encouraging 1 ½ length 3rd of 14 to Vadream in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on his seasonal return last month. The 4-year-old was conceding 3lb and race fitness to the two who finished in front of him that day and started from what turned out to be unfavourable draw in stall 1. His C&D form figures are 511 and I think he’s a 5f Group 1 sprinter in the making.
Dramatised won the Queen Mary Stakes over C&D at last year’s Royal meeting and improved again to beat older rivals in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock on her reappearance 24 days ago. Likely a beneficiary of profound draw bias last time but given her liking for quick ground the 3-year-old can’t be dismissed.
Mitbaahy, a progressive 5f sprinter on a sound surface last season, was drawn in stall 3 in the Temple Stakes and made his effort towards the far rail. He had no chance from his position and in the circumstances, this was a good effort. It would have been interesting to see how close he would have got to the winner if he had been drawn on the stands side. The forecast strong pace will suit and he’s got each way claims.
Twilight Calls was a 4 ½ length 2nd of 16 to Nature Strip in last year’s race. The 5-year-old hasn’t run well on either start this season but there were valid excuses for both performances. It was soft ground at Newmarket for his seasonal return and he scoped badly when down the field in the Temple Stakes last time. Questions to answer but on a going day he will go close with Ryan Moore back in the plate.
Verdict: Australian Challenger Coolangatta is a fascinating contender, but I doubt she’s as good as last year’s winner Nature Strip. Highfield Princess is the best on Official Ratings and won’t be far away. Manaccan goes very well over C&D and his odds have tumbled after the news that Frankie Dettori will continue in the saddle. Last year’s runner-up Twilight Calls likely doesn’t have a Nature Strip to contend with and won’t be far away if bouncing back to his best. At bigger odds I like the claims of Mitbaahy who will be suited by the forecast strong pace.
4:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
Nine have been declared for this year’s renewal and its shaping up to be the race of day one of this year’s Royal Meeting.
All the Guineas form lines come together in this year’s race. We have Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean and third home Royal Scotsman. The Irish 2,000 Guineas form is represented by winner Paddington. We also have the French 2,000 Guineas runner-up Isaac Shelby. Add in a couple of progressive up in class contenders in Cicero’s Gift and Mostabshir and we have the makings of a cracker of a contest.
It was good, good to firm in places on the round course on Monday morning. I’m not sure if the thunderstorms/heavy rain reached Ascot but light rain is forecast for Tuesday.
If the ground has eased that will be a big boost to the chances of ante post favourite Chaldean. The son of Frankel is likely to be ridden prominently. However, there looks to be plenty of pace on and horses ridden more patiently to tend to be the ones to be with over C&D.
Second in on my ratings is Paddington. The son of Siyouni has won all three starts this season and created a good impression when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Tactically versatile, he’s open to more improvement than Chaldean and can give Aidan O’Brien a ninth success in the race.
Royal Scotsman ran terribly in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time. That performance was too bad to be true and whist I think the round track will suit the colt better he does have questions answer after his run at the Curragh.
Isaac Shelby runner-up on the French 2,000 Guineas should be suited by the anticipated strong pace and won on good to firm as a juvenile. Another who is ground versatile and I think there could be more to come from the colt whose got solid each way claims.
Cicero’s Gift has been well supported in the ante post market. A winner of his sole juvenile start. The colt has won both his starts this year and produced a Group 1 level turn of foot to win at Goodwood last month. Yet to race on quick ground but there’s no reason on pedigree why he can’t be effective on it.
Mostabshir is another who has been well backed in the ante post betting. Back up in class but there was plenty to like about his quick ground success at York last month.
I find it difficult to make a case for the other three runners Galeron. Charyn and Indestructible. Although the Galeron was just 3 ¼ lengths behind Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and should be suited by the likely pace of the race.
Verdict: Of the front two in the betting – Chaldean and Paddington. I’m firmly in the latter’s camp. The price has gone on Cicero’s Gift but he remains an exciting prospect. The same can be said of Mostabshir. The market seems to be underestimating Isaac Shelby’s French Guineas form, but I think it would be unwise to do so, and I think he can go close. Paddington is the most likely winner but at 10/1 Isaac Shelby looks the value play.
5:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 4f
The first of today’s two handicaps. Ryan Moore & Willie Mullins are 3 winners from 8 runners +12 7 places 88% when teaming up in this marathon race. The pair combine with Bring On The Night. A winner on the flat when trained in France. The 6-year-old is having his first start since finishing a ¾ length 2nd of 19 to Coltrane in last year’s race. This has likely been the plan and off just 4lb higher is the favourite is the one to beat.
Ahorsewithnoname, trained by Nicky Henderson, is normally ridden by Ryan Moore but he opts for the favourite today. The mare was back to form when winning over hurdles at Cheltenham in April and given she’s in foal could be capable of better than she’s shown so far on the flat.
Law Of The Sea was a 1 ¾ length 4th of 16 to Metier in Chester Cup two starts back and backed up that effort when a ¾-length 2nd of 7 to one of today’s rivals Solent Gateway at Haydock last time. Nudged up 1lb but shaped like there’s a handicap in him off around his present mark. Stablemate Zinc White is 8lb higher than when winning the Chester Plate last time. A fragile horse who was returning from a mammoth absence last time might be capable of better over marathon trips, but his best form so far has come on much softer ground. Yard has won this race twice since 2019.
Zoffee fourth in last year’s Cesarewitch on his final start of 2022, looked better than ever when a neck second in Chester Cup on his seasonal reappearance. Up 2lb but looks to have solid claims once more, if staying 2m 4f.
Calling The Wind was a good 3 ½ length 6th of 16 to Metier in Chester Cup on his seasonal reappearance last month. He would likely have finished closer if getting a better run inside the final furlong and is the sort to give his running in a race like this with Billy Loughnane taking off a handy 3lb.
Novel Legend was a 2 ½ length runner-up to Zinc White at Chester last time. Prior to that he had looked an improving staying handicapper when comfortably winning at Newbury. I don’t think he was suited to the twists and turns at Chester and a return to a more conventional track will suit the 4-year-old. Like Zinc White is best form has come with ease in the ground though which is slightly concerning.
Verdict: Last year’s runner-up Bring On The Night is sure to be popular with punters given the trainer/jockey combination record in the race. However. At his present odds I must take him on. Ahorsewithnoname is in foal, and we know the impact that can have on a mare’s performance. Law Of The Sea represents a yard with a good record in the race and has a decent pot in him. The consistent Calling The Wind has each way claims as does Novel Legend returned to a more conventional track but he does need to prove his effectiveness on quick ground.
5:35 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
The John & Thady Gosden yard have the front two in the betting in Saga & Francesco Clemente. Saga would be a popular winner for the King. The 4-year-old was a head 2nd of 30 in the Britannia Handicap (1m) here 12 months ago and was on a going day when a head 2nd of 17 to King of Conquest in a handicap at Newmarket (1m 1f) on his seasonal reappearance last month. Claims if at his best and should stay 1m 2f but he looks a poor value favourite.
Francesco Clemente returned from a 10 month absence to run King Of Conquest to a neck in a Listed race at Goodwood 24 days ago. The colt goes well on quick ground and given he’s just had four starts remain capable of better. Despite Dettori seemingly opting for Saga I prefer Francesco Clemente, providing we get a sound surface.
King of Conquest is 3lb worse off with both Saga and Francesco Clemente but he showed a great attitude to beat the latter last time and he could confirm form with Gosden horses once more. He wins races which is always a good thing which is more than you can say about Saga
Buckaroo has a 3lb penalty to carry for his Listed success over Homeless Songs at Leopardstown in April. A neck 4th of 6 to Anmaat in the Group 1 Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp 22 days ago he should be capable of another big run dropped down in class.
Verdict: Saga would be a popular winner for King Charles and Frankie Dettori. However, he’s plenty short enough for me and at the prices I prefer the claims of his more unexposed stablemate Francesco Clemente. King Of Conquest wins races, which is a good thing and can’t be discounted. Buckaroo drops in class here and he has solid claims and he’s, my pick.
6:10 – Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f
A maximum field of 16 for a tricky concluding handicap to day one.
High class 2m hurdler Vauban is a short-priced favourite and you can see why as the 5-year-old who is rated 160 over hurdles can race off a mark of 101 back on the flat. He was 2-4 on the flat when trained in France and remains unexposed in the sphere. Could easily be another winner for the Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore combination but he’s unproven on quick ground. Stablemate Absurde could also be nicely treated on the best of his French flat form. The 5-year-old made a winning start over hurdles for the Mullins yard at Killarney last month and has to be respected with Frankie Dettori booked.
Ruling Dynasty returned from a 227 day absence to win a Haydock novice (good to firm) 11 days ago. Steps up from 1m 3 ½ f for his handicap debut but should stay. Produced a nice turn of foot to win last time and look capable of more improvement.
Point King won his first three starts as a 3-year-old completing the hat trick in a Leopardstown Listed race (1m 6f) last August. Below his best in a Group 3 on soft ground on his final start last season but was back to his best when a short-head 2nd of 9 in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on his return to action last month. Must be respected back in handicap company.
Postileo returned from a 19 month absence to win a Hamilton handicap last month. Up 3lb and in a much deeper race here but the 6-year-old has only had ten career starts so could yet have a bigger performance in him back up in trip. Best performances so far have come with more ease in the ground though.
Raymond Tusk was a 4 length 7th of 16 in last year’s race, from a 4lb higher mark. The 8-year-old returned from a four month absence with a 3 ½ length 3rd of 11 at Newmarket (1m 4f) last month. The return to 1m 6f will suit him and he’s got each way claims.
Chillingham ended last season with a win at Thirsk (soft) on handicap debut and returned to action with an improved performance to win at that venue in April. A 7lb rise in the weights doesn’t look harsh given he had plenty in hand last time. Both Thirsk wins have come soft ground, but the gelding did win on a sound surface last summer so should be fine on today’s ground. Today’s longer trip could unlock more improvement in the 4-year-old, and he looks to have each way claims.
Verdict: Vauban is the ‘sexy’ horse in the line-up but he’s to short for me on quick ground that he’s yet to race on. He also faces some good rivals. Ruling Dynasty is interesting on handicap debut. Point King could be a Melbourne Gold Cup contender given his connections and he’s the one I like most. I also think the progressive Chillingham shouldn’t be underestimated and he does look a shade overpriced at current odds.
Betting Advice:
I’m not coming to Royal Ascot in the best of form but there’s plenty I fancy today as I do for the rest of the week so there are going to be a lot of bets over the next five days. A bad week and I’m going to be in some trouble, but a good week which I’m hopeful of having and I will be in profit for the month.
Royal Ascot
2:30 – Native Trail – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Triple Time – 1pt each way – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
3:05 – Bucanero Fuerte – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Mitbaahy – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Twilight Calls – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:20 – Isaac Shelby – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral
5:00 – Law Of The Sea – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Ahorsewithnoname – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Buckaroo – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:10 – Point King – 1pt win – 9/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power and Chillingham – 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places).
Cheers
John
Big thanks
Very impressive first day summary