Hi all,
The stalls open on the Qatar “Glorious” Goodwood Festival. The ground has softened and it looks like it will be soft for day one. As for the rest of week. Its looking mainly dry but passing showers are forecast for the rest of the week. However, the weather apps are sending mixed message as to when and how much rain they will produce.
The big Goodwood news on Monday was Richard Hannon aiming Snow Lantern at the Sussex Stakes rather than the Nassau Stakes and given the softening ground it looks a good move.
The day one headline act is Stradivarious as he bids for fifth successive win in the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup (3:35). Although Stradivarius won on soft ground in the past the rain softened ground really brings Trueshan into the mix.
It’s also day two of the Galway Festival with the feature race of an eight-race card being the COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) (6:15).
ITV are covering the first five races on an eight-race card at Goodwood. Inside today’s preview I have looked at the five Goodwood races on ITV and the big race at Galway.
Qatar Goodwood Festival – Day 1
1:50 – Unibet “You’re On” Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
I really fancied last year’s winner Maydanny here but I think the soft ground has gone against him. Stablemate Sky Defender was beaten 5 lengths 12 months ago but he does get 17lb from the winner and given he showed he handled soft ground when finishing runner-up at York last August he could be the best of the Mark Johnson horses.
Cockalorum has returned to action this season in fantastic form with his form figures 2112. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort on RPR’s when finishing a head 2nd of 20 in the John Smiths Cup at York last time. Did get the run of the race at in front that day which doesn’t seem likely today though.
Migration returned from 21 months off the track when a 1 ½ lengths 4th of 12 at Salisbury (good to soft) 34-days ago. He was well backed before the race and finished his race strongly, doing best of those who came from off the pace. Given the market support he received last time it looks connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. This will be the 5-year-old’s first run on soft ground but he seemed fine on good to soft at Salisbury.
Verdict: Migration will need luck in the run but can come fast and late to win this. Both Cockalorum and Sky Defender have each way claims.
1pt win – Migration – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Unibet Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
Just the seven have been declared for this juvenile contest. On form it looks a match between the Group 2 winners Berkshire Shadow and Lusail. The first named is unbeaten on both career starts and last time out won the Coventry Stakes. Lusail is improving with racing and last time out was a decisive winner of the July Stakes at Newmarket. Both colts have shown their best form so far on good to firm ground though. That Lusail has already won over 7f just swings it for me but its not a race I have a strong view on.
3:00 – Unibet Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
I had last year’s winner Space Blues down as one of the best of the meeting but that was on good ground.
Escobar goes well here and he finished third in last year’s race. He has 2 ½ lengths to find with the winner on that form but his two best RPR’s have come on soft/Heavy so on rain softened ground could get closer to his old rival.
Happy Power had Escobar back in third when winning the Group 3 Supreme Stakes (good to soft) over C&D last August. He showed a liking for soft ground when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket last autumn. Best form so far this season also came on soft ground when an excellent 2 ½ length 4th of 12 in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. You can draw a line through his run over a mile at Ascot last time when he raced too free. This his trip and the rain has come at the right time.
Kinross bounced back from a couple of poor runs at Meydan when landing the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time. The gelding operation he had after his stint in Meydan looks to have had the desired effect A strongly run 7f looks ideal for the 4-year-oEscobarld and he looks worth his place in this Group 2 contest. Stall 13 isn’t great though.
Verdict: I’m going to take on Space Blues here. Kinross has a wide draw to overcome but can hold his own in Class 2 company. Escobar goes well and has each way claims. Happy Power will like the ground and has winning form over C&D. He looks each way value at the 16/1 available with Paddy Power.
Toro Strike was a neck behind Happy Power in the Supreme Stakes and goes well over C&D with his form figures being 312. A return to Goodwood is a positive but he has a poor run at Haydock behind Kinross in May to overcome and his best form has thus far come on a sound surface.
1pt each way – Happy Power – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:35 – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 2m
Stradivarius isn’t the horse he was. That said he remains the one to beat. Doesn’t he? Only 4th in last month’s Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. He was a bit unlucky in the run that day but wouldn’t have been the winner even with a clear run but may well have finished third
One place in front of Stradivarius in the Gold Cup was Spanish Mission. A winner of last year’s Doncaster Cup and this season’s Yorkshire Cup at York in May. He was well beaten in the last year’s race but has been in much better form since. He should once again give his running but I think he would want the ground to dry out.
The softening ground has led plenty of support in the ante post market for Trueshan and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he was sent off favourite. He missed the Gold Cup due to quick ground but wasn’t disgraced under a huge weight in the Northumberland Plate last month. He was only sixth at Newcastle but on RPR’s it was still up there with his run when winning the Group 2 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. If he handles the Goodwood undulations, I think he can prevent dethrone the champion.
4:10 – Back To Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
King Of Stars has been running well in 5f handicaps this season on quick ground. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort when a neck 2nd of 14 to Twilight Calls at Newmarket 18-days ago. Up 5lb and will have competition for the lead here. Improved form has come on quick ground but seemed to handles soft ground when trained in Ireland.
Jabbarockie is another speedy sort. The 8-year-old returned better than ever this season making all to win to Class 2 handicaps at Musselburgh & Chester in the spring. Was found to be lame when finishing last in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock 66-days ago. Now 4lb above his last winning mark but if he can bag the stand rail, he will be tough to pass. William Buick is back in the saddle, he won on the gelding last season and is 3 wins from 4 rides when riding for trainer Eric Alston. Best form has come on good ground but he can go well here.
No going concerns for Sunday Sovereign. Both his career wins have come with juice in the ground and he’s back on soft ground for the first time since running Pendleton to ¾ length at York in May. Has run poorly on both starts since his York effort though, albeit one was on the tapata and the other on good to firm at Ascot.
Verdict: Sunday Sovereign is back on soft ground. He’s not the most consistent of horses. He will either go close here or bomb out. King Of Stars is going the right way but would be of more interest on quicker ground. Jabbarockie will be hard to pass if he gets out in front.
1pt each way – Sunday Sovereign – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
1pt win – Jabbarockie – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
Galway
6:15 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m ½ f
Quizical was only beaten ¾ length into third in this race in 2019 and was a close-up 5th over 7f here 12 months ago. He got within 2 lengths of the winner that day and was a bit unlucky in the run. With a clearer passage he might well have gone onto win. Handicapped to go well but stall 19 tempers enthusiasm a bit.
Jessica Harrington saddles a trio of runners in Tauran Shaman, Njord & Free Solo. They all have claims and the first two named have good form at the track.
Stable jockey Shane Foley seems to have opted for Tauran Shaman. A previous C&D winner and was 4th in this race 12 months ago. He’s improved since and he maintained this seasons’ good form when a ¾ length 2nd of 13 at Leopardstown 19-days ago. Should go well although soft ground would be a bit of an unknown.
Top-weight Njord was beaten just a nose in this race last year. He’s now 12lb higher but has been running well finishing runner-up in Group 3 & Group 2 company on his last two starts. It will be fine effort to win this under 10-5 but Scott McCullagh does take off a handy 5lb and the easing ground is a positive for the 5-year-old who has a handy low draw.
Dermot Weld’s runners went well on day one and his representative Blue For You has to be respected. The gelding beat Wembley here on soft ground 12 months ago. Gelded in the spring, after an underwhelming seasonal return, the fitting of the first-time visor had a galvanizing effect on the 3-year-old that day and although he’s been raised 5lb for that win he’s lightly raced to think there could be more to come.
Verdict: Blue For You won here last year and is capable of better. Njord is a class act and although he’s got a big weight to carry must be respected.
1pt win – Blue For You – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Njord – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John