Hi all,
Another poor day at Punchestown. Well It’s Day 3 of the Punchestown Festival. There’s been some great racing over the previous two-days. Sadly, it’s not involved any of my selections.
Punchestown
3:40 – Drop The Anchor, was well backed when winning a softish ground bumper at Listowel back in September. The 5-year-old looked a useful prospect that day. Put in a career best on his 3rd start over hurdles, after a couple of quiet runs over hurdles, when 3rd of 20 back on soft ground at Gowran Park 54 -days ago. Handicap debut off a mark of 116 looks more than workable. Could be another winner for owner J P McManus, although slight concern that trainer Pat Fahy has gone 121-days & 56 runners since saddling a winner.
Drop The Anchor – 8/1 @ Paddy Power
4:15 – Impact Factor, finally got his head in front at the 9th attempt over fences when winning a valuable handicap chase at Fairyhouse 11-days ago. He may well have a got a bit lucky that day as the quirky but talented Mind’s Eye, who was just in the lead coming to the second last decided to run out taking out on his inside the patiently ridden Snugsborough Hall who had made eyecatching headway into third. That incident left Impact Factor clear of the rest. Previous eyecatcher Mind’s Eye gets the first time cheekpieces today and he’s talented and handicapped to win a race like this if the headgear works. but isn’t one for maximum faith.
It’s not hard to think that Snugsborough Hall was the unlucky horse in that race as he was travelling like the winner when he was carried out. The ground will be softer than it was at Fairyhouse but the 8-year-old did win a soft ground novice chase two starts back so shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the rain softened ground. Moon Over Germany won a soft ground Grade 3 at Aintree on his last start. The handicapper has put the 8-year-old up 11lb for that win which makes life harder but the ground has come in his favour so he needs respecting.
Don’t Touch It, won this race in 2017 off 1lb lower but didn’t run close to that high-class form until getting up in the final strides on soft ground at Listowel back in September. Two poor runs once again followed that effort and the 9-year-old returns from a 198-day layoff. Can’t be ruled out if the break has freshened him up.
English raider Bun Doran comes into the race fresher than most and arguably the best form. The 8-year-old won on his seasonal return at Cheltenham back in November before finishing runner-up back there the following month. Showed he goes well fresh, putting up a career best when 2nd of 19 in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival 48-days ago. Coming to the last it looked like jockey Paddy Brennan had produced him to win his race but not for the first time he didn’t find as much as expected and couldn’t get past eventual winner Croco Bay. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.
Verdict: The chances of Moon Over Germany and Snugsborough Hall are there for all to see. I do like the latter but there’s no value left in his price now. There won’t be much between the consistent Bun Doran and Croco Bay but I just prefer the former. The first time cheekpieces could be making of Mind’s Eye has the ability to win a race like this of his present mark and was an eyecatcher three starts back.
Bun Doran – 15/2 @ William Hill
Mind’s Eye – 8/1 – Gen
6:05 – A field of 25 are declared to go to post for this valuable 3m handicap hurdle. Gordon Elliott saddles four and the best of them could be Elwood. The ex-French trained gelding was thrown into the deep end for his first two starts for the trainer falling in listed company before pulling up in a Grade 3 at Cork two starts back. The drop into a handicap hurdle suited when the 5-year-old finished runner-up to the improving Ronald Pump over 3m back at Cork 42-days ago. The winner went onto defy 13lb rise to win a valuable Fairyhouse handicap hurdle last month. Elwood has been put up just 5lb for his last run and looks capable of winning a race like this.
Elwood – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
6:40 – Just seven are set to go to post for the 2m Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase but it could be one of the races of the meeting. At the head of the betting are two Cheltenham festival winners: Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres and JLT winner Defi Du Seuil who drops back to 2m here.
The field also contains the first and second in the in the Aintree Grade 1 novices’ chase in Ornua and Us And Them. I think Ornua can confirm form with the runner-up. He jumped really well that day although the going will be softer than at Aintree he needs respecting in this deeper race.
Add in Voix De De Reve, stablemate of Duc Des Genievres who finally put it together over fences when winning a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Fairyhouse 11-days ago and Chacun Pour Soi who returned from 1089 day lay off to put in a breathtaking round of jumping to win a Naas beginners chase 53-days ago. The 7-year-old would have been the mount of Ruby Walsh before his retirement on Wednesday. You can see why this race has the potential to be one of the races of the meeting or even the season.
Verdict: A race for watching rather than betting in all truth. Ornua will blaze a trail and if the ground dries out, he could hold on. He has definite each-way claims. Chacun Pour Soi could be special but he will have to be to win a race like this and is priced on potential more than what form he’s shown on the track. The anticipated strong pace will suit both Duc Des Genievres and Defi Du Seuil and of the pair I just prefer the claims of the former whose Arkle win may have been slightly underestimated.
Duc Des Genievres – 2/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John