Hi all,
A poor day for the service at Punchestown on Tuesday. Let’s hope for better today and there’s all a good card at Ascot. However, lets begin once again over the Irish Sea.
Punchestown
3:40 – Just the 25 go to post for this 2m 5f handicap hurdle for Conditional Jockeys. It normally pays to note any Jessica Harrington runners at the Punchestown Festival and hopefully it will continue to be the case this week.
Her bumper runners are 1 winner from 34 runners 6 placed 18% so concentrating on those of her runners in chase & hurdle races only looks the way to go.
Those that had finished in the first four on their last start have provided punters with 14 winners from 48 runners 29% 21 placed 44%. If you had backed all such runners at the Punchestown Festival in the past five seasons you would have made a profit of £71 to a £1 level stake at SP.
She saddles two here in Conron & Press Conference who both won their last two starts. The former likes it around Punchestown having won twice here in the past. Whilst the latter impressed when last seen over hurdles when winning at Limerick over Christmas. They will do for me in open looking race.
Conron – 10/1 – Gen
Press Conference – 8/1 @ Paddy Power
4:20 – I’m going with another Harrington runner here in The Holy One. The 6-year-old was a good winner of a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 9-days ago. Has a bit to find with likely favourite Zero Ten on form but he’s in good form and if he handles the softer ground likely today, he should get into the money.
The Holy One – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way
5:30 – We have the first three home from the Albert Bartlett in Minello Indo, Commander Of Fleet and Allaho running in this 3m Grade 1 novice hurdle. Carefully Selected was a useful bumper horse finishing runner-up in last years Cheltenham Bumper and third in the Champion Bumper here 12 months ago. The 7-year-old returned from a 326-day break with a good win in a 2m 6f Limerick novice hurdle 45-days ago. The step up to 3m should bring out more progress in him. Best from so far has come on soft or heavy ground so the softer the ground the better for him.
Carefully Selected – 6/1 @ Paddy Power
6:40 – I wouldn’t normally go for a race like this in all truth. However, Beacon Edge trained by Noel Meade was an eyecatcher when 4th to subsequent Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner Envoi Allen in the Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival back in February. Won on his bumper debut at Ayr for previous trainer Nicky Richards but his run at Leopardstown was even better from. Missed Cheltenham & Aintree and can get into the money here.
Beacon Edge – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – each way
7:10 – A field of 13 are declared to go to post for this valuable 2m 4f handicap chase. I have four on the shortlist but if Tuesday is any guide then I probably haven’t found the winner among the four.
Jett is another for the Harrington Punchestown Festival micro angle I mentioned earlier. The 8-year-old won a Grade 2 on his last start at Fairyhouse. The 8-year-old is improving with racing over fences. Granted he got an uncontested lead at Fairyhouse but if he gets another one today, he will be hard to get past.
Ben Dundee, trained by Gordon Elliott, ran a cracker to finish third to Impressive winner A Plus Tard in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on his last start. Granted he was well beaten at Cheltenham but he jumped much better than he has done in the past. A previous C&D winner and this only his second start in a handicap chase so he looks on a competitive mark.
Sizing Granite, won this race in 2017 off 1lb lower. The 11-year-old bounced back to form when runner-up at Ayr 19-days ago. He’s been trained for a spring campaign with this race as his target no doubt. He remains vulnerable to any improver in the field and there’s a suspicion that he is better suited by a sounder surface. But Jonjo O’Neill takes off a valuable 3lb in a tight looking handicap which could make all difference.
Blast Of Koeman, usually runs his race in these valuable handicaps but he’s found it hard to win over fences just 1 win from 10 runs 5 placed. Was beaten just a neck in this race 12 months ago off 4lb lower. He was travelling better than the eventual winner when making a bad mistake at the last and the jockey lost his irons. He would probably have won but for that mistake but he’s a horse that doesn’t always find as much when hitting the front. Won over hurdles here 121 days ago on his last start off a much lower handicap mark. The 8-year-old has the ability to win a race like this, but he will have to be given a clever ride to do so. Lack of a recent run is a slight concern as he’s 0 wins from 6 runs 0 placed when racing 60+days since his last start.
Blast Of Koeman – 8/1 @ William Hill – each way ( Paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Jett – 9/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Ben Dundee – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Ascot
4:25 – Canvassed, made it 2 wins from 2 runs when bolting up at Kempton 28-days ago. The second home at Kempton did nothing for the form when beaten in a Windsor handicap on Monday but Canvassed looked a potential Group horse that day and can put his fitness to good use here. Likely favourite Barney Roy is the class act on back form. However, he returns from a failed stud career and hasn’t raced for 557-days.
Canvassed – 11/2 @ Paddy Power
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John