Hi all,
Not the best of starts with Cosmic Law never getting competitive at Newcastle yesterday.
The quality of the racing steps up today with Kempton hosting the Group 3 Classic Trial which is usually run at Sandown at the end of April and the Listed Snowdrop Stakes for fillies both part of a nine-race card.
Racing returns to the grass at Yarmouth on Wednesday with a bumper ten race card. The going description is firm (good to firm in places). The course has been watering to maintain the going but if it stays dry, we can assume the ground will be quick side.
I’m focusing on Kempton today and it’s two pattern races.
Kempton
2:45 – Unibet Classic Trial Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
A race for the classic generation which has been rescheduled from its normal home at Sandown. Given its proximity to the Derby means it’s attracted a good-sized field off 11 runners. I think it will pay to look towards the first three or four in the betting for the likely winner of the race.
Born With Pride heads the Racing Post betting forecast for the race. Once raced last year as juvenile the filly caused a bit of a shock when winning the Listed Montrose Stakes at Newmarket on her racecourse debut. She’s entitled to improve as 3-year-old and could be a serious Oaks contender. Should go well if ready to roll first time.
Max Vega comes into the race with the best juvenile form. Like the favourite he’s yet to try the polytrack but it shouldn’t inconvenience him. A son of Lope De Vega. The colt won easily at Pontefract on his second start before going onto land the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket in October. It will be interesting to see if he’s improved over the winter as he didn’t look biggest horse as 2-year-old.
Bright Melody won’t be inconvenienced by the surface as the gelding won at Chelmsford on his race course debut in January, in what looked a decent time. He looks set to improve this season but you would be disappointed if a gelding was to win this.
Hypothetical a well-bred son of Lope De Vega also won he’s sole start at Chelmsford back in December. It wasn’t run in a quick time but the colt showed a good turn of foot to win his race in the final furlong. He wasn’t stopping at the finish of the mile contest and the extra two furlongs of this race should bring out more improvement in the colt. Trainer John Gosden is 4 winners from 12 runners in the race since 2008.
Verdict: Born With Pride is as short as 8/1 for the Oaks so probably needs to win this if she to be a serious contender for the Epsom Classic. Max Vega has the best juvenile form but may find that some of rivals have improved past him. Hypothetical looks like one who will find improvement for the step up to 1m 2f and looks a good prospect for a trainer who knows the type of horse needed to win the race.
1pt win – Hypothetical – 7/2 @ Bet365
3:55 – EBF/Unibet Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes – (Listed) – 1m
Fourteen fillies & mares are set to go to post for what looks a competitive renewal of the Snowdrop Stakes.
Nazeef, trained by John Gosden, heads the betting forecast. The 4-year-old improved with each of her four starts last season and looks set to progress further this year.
Gosden also saddles Scentasia. Another 4-year-old she also progressed nicely last season, ending 2019 with two wins in Listed company at Lingfield in the autumn. The latter of those wins came over 1m 2f but she’s a free going filly who should be well suited by a strongly run mile.
Billesdon Brook, a winner of the 2018 1000 Guineas won the Group 1 Sun Chariot at the same venue last October. Her Group 1 success means she has a 7lb penalty to shoulder today. It will be a tough ask to give weight to some potential improvers but she takes a sizable drop-in class and the faster they go the better her chance.
Romola, trained by Sir Michael Stoute who looks to have his horses well forward after the break, is interesting. The daughter of Pivotal was another to improve last season after the fitting of the visor, albeit in handicap company. Looks the sort to continue to improve as a 4-year-old. Her trainer does well with such fillies and also has an excellent record with his older horses on their seasonal reappearance – 31 winners from 96 runners 32% +35.84 A/E 1.32 48 placed 50% since the start of 2015.
Verdict: This looks a strong renewal of the race. Billesdon Brook has the class to win and the harder they go the better her chance. John Gosden has a strong hand with potential improvers Nazeef & Scentasia, with a slight preference for the former. Sir Michael Stoute has his older horses nicely forward and although Romola has plenty to find on ratings with the likes Billesdon Brook she looks the type to improve this season and has place claims.
1pt each way – Romolo – 11/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John