Hi all,
Master of Reality came within a head of giving Joseph O’Brien a second win in the Melbourne Cup unfortunately he was deemed to interfered with the eventual fourth and was demoted to that position after a steward’s inquiry.
That’s racing but as long as you were with the bookies paying four places or first past the past you landed a nice little each way bet as Master Of Reality was returned at 25/1 for the ‘race that stops a nation’.
Let’s hope for better fortune on what looks a decent card at Exeter with the feature race being the Coral Haldon Gold Cup.
Exeter
2:10 – Coral Haldon Gold Cup (A Limited Handicap Chase) (Grade 2) 2m 1 ½ f
Looking at the trends all the last ten winners of the race had an OR between 147 & 157 and had at least one win on the going. That leaves us with a short list of three: Dolos, Lalor & Charbel.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race three times since 2010 and he saddles Dolos in this year’s renewal. The 6-year-old won at Kempton on his final start of last season off 3lb lower. Granted this is harder but he’s ground versatile, has won on good and soft, and his two best RPR’s have come going right-handed. Has gone well off a lay off and if he’s to take advantage of what looks a tough enough mark, it may well be over today’s extended 2m 1 ½ f trip and on his first start to the season.
Charbel has the back class to win this but he maybe better of further than 2m 2f and didn’t look a winner waiting to happen on his seasonal return at Chepstow last month.
Lalor looks of more interest here. An impressive novice chase winner on his seasonal return last November. He didn’t build on that early promise on three subsequent starts. A reproduction of his win over Dynamite Dollars at Cheltenham would be good enough to win this off his present mark but you must take his well-being on trust.
1pt win – Dolos – 9/2 @ Paddy Power
3:10 – A competitive looking 3m, Class 3, handicap chase for which 13 have been declared to run. For Good Measure won his first race over fences at the ninth attempt with success at Warwick 33-days ago. That win came on good ground and although he’s twice won heavy, he may be better on a sounder surface. Now 7lb higher than at Warwick but still very much in the mix here.
Le Boizelo has run well here in the past and is at his best on rain softened ground. Down the field on his seasonal reappearance here but it’s worth noting he’s 2 wins from 3 runs 3 placed when racing within 15-days of his last start.
Perfect Candidate, a previous C&D winner, shaped like the fire remains in his belly after his 4th of 9 at Chepstow 25-days ago. Now a 12-year-old, but he’s on a good mark albeit vulnerable to younger legs.
I think 3m on soft ground are the optimum conditions for Holdbacktheriver. The 7-year-old won here over hurdles in April 2018. Just the three starts over fences, winning at Bangor but didn’t build on that promise on two subsequent runs, one over the larger obstacles. Probably on a decent mark but how fit is he for his seasonal return?
Dell’ Arca is on winnable mark but the 10-year-old is hardly the most reliable of horses. Now doubt will pop in one of theses races probably when least expected.
Verdict: For Good Measure is arguably the most reliable of the 13 runners and shouldn’t be far away. Better can be expected from Le Boizelo on his second start of the season.
1pt win – For Good Measure – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes
Cheers
John