Hi all,
As promised, here’s my preview of Thursday’s Thyestes Handicap Chase. It’s a race I really like although I don’t think I have ever found the winner.
Thursday January 23rd
Gowran Park
3:00 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m 1f
One of the best Handicap Chases of the season, and as ever this valuable race has attracted a strong field of entries with €59,000 on offer to the winner.
As you would expect plenty standout at the five-day stage. Here are my thoughts on a few of the leading fancies and a couple of lively each way contenders.
Chief Des Obeaux, trained by Willie Mullins, looks likely to head the betting on the strength of his 5th of 27 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. Just the two starts since switching to the stable and is open to more improvement. Needs to jump better than he did last time, made a mistake three out when in the lead. Acts on soft. Quite short at 8/1 for a competitive race like this but could go off even shorter.
Smoking Gun lacks experience over fences -1 win from 3 runs – but showed he jumps and stays well when winning a 3m 1f beginners chase at Punchestown 23-days ago. That win came on yielding ground so heavy will provide a different test for the 7-year-old. A winner here over hurdles he looks capable of being competitive in staying handicap chases this season and could be an Irish Grand National horse. Has been backed ante post for this and shouldn’t be far away.
Castlebrook, is a young staying chaser who I really liked for this, but news came through yesterday that he’s now out for the season.
Ex Patriot went into the notebook after a good effort when close-up 4th of 12 to Oldgrangewood at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. I had him down as ideal type for drop back to strongly run 2m in a race like the Grand Annual at Cheltenham so interesting to see him so well fancied in the ante post betting for this race stepped up to 3m 1f. A winner at the track over fences back in March at 2m 2f. Stamina very much to prove but the 7-year-old has only had two goes over further than 2m 4 ½ f. Has the ability to win a decent handicap this season.
Discorama, put in a great effort over fences when runner-up in last year’s 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Made an encouraging seasonal return when runner-up to Champagne Classic at Wexford in October. Expected to go well (8/1) in the Troytown Handicap at Navan on his next start but could only finish 8th of 23. Ran even worse back over hurdles at Limerick last time. Has the ability to win a race like this when back to form but questions to answer after two low-key performances.
Solomn Grundy doesn’t win very often but he has run some good races in valuable big field handicaps chases. Made a bad mistake at the 10th in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase, his rider was lucky to stay in the saddle. He managed to work his back into the race and was second after four out. Ultimately weakened out of it two out and ended up finishing 7th. In the circumstances it was a better run than his final position suggests. Has the ability to get into the places with a decent round of jumping.
Another couple of Mullins trained horses with each way claims:
Acapella Bourgeois, beat Road to Respect as a novice back in early 2017. He hasn’t reached the high levels that could have been expected after that success but showed what he was capable of when 3rd of 30 in last years Irish Grand National off 2lb lower. No show over hurdles on his return to action but ran better returned to fences when runner-up to Al Boum Photo at Tramore 22-days ago. That was step back in the right direction from the 10-year-old. If he runs, he will carry top-weight which wouldn’t necessarily be a negative as three of the last 11 winners of the race carried top weight to victory.
Total Recall, probably not as good as he used to be, and the 11-year-old hasn’t won since landing a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival nearly two years ago. Won the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury in 2017 off 2lb lower. Showed last year that he retains ability when runner-up to subsequent Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo at Tramore 12 months ago. Had a pipe opener over hurdles at Clonmel last month and is on a decent enough mark for a return to the larger obstacles.
Verdict: Any Willie Mullins runners must be respected as he’s trained four of the last ten winners of the race. That brings the likes of Chief Des Obeaux and Acapella Bourgeois very much into the mix. Ex Patriot is a consistent chaser who goes well at the track and has the ability win this if his stamina holds out. Smoking Gun is a potential improver now going handicapping. Whilst Solomn Grundy has each way claims, if he jumps better. With Castlebrook now out it’s the Mullins pair Chief Des Obeaux and Acapella Bourgeois but should one of them not go to post I wouldn’t put anyone off Ex Patriot.
1pt win – Chief Des Obeaux – 7/1 Gen
1pt win – Acapella Bourgeois – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
1pt win – Ex Patriot – 14/1 @ Sky Bet & BetVictor
Cheers
John