Hi all,
The racing moves into turbo class wise on Friday. Just the two fixtures but both are full of quality.
At Newmarket the Guineas Meeting continues. The feature race of a ten-race card is the first Group 1 of the season the Coronation Cup which is usually run at Epsom. The race has attracted a decent field including the likes of Ghaiyyath, Stradivarius and last years winner Defoe. The support card includes the Group 3 Abernant Stakes, which Brando bids to win the race for the third time in the last four years, and four competitive looking handicaps.
The other meeting takes place at Lingfield. The feature races of a nine-race card are the Lingfield Derby & Oaks Trials. Both those races will be run in the turf but the rest of the race will be run on the all-weather.
I’m concentrating on Newmarket and the handicaps for today’s selections.
Newmarket
1:50 – Ten are set to go to post for this 6f Class 2 handicap, It looks the most competitive handicaps since racing’s resumption and you make a case for most of the field.
The Ed Walker trained Swindler heads the ante post market. The lightly raced 4-year-old only had three starts last season winning twice at Ascot on good to firm ground. He’s a bit quirky as he showed when hanging left when winning at Ascot in September but is a class horse when putting it all together. Up 6lb for his last win but he could be capable of more progress this season. Given how well he goes at Ascot you would think this could be a good prep for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot.
Dazzling Dan is next in the betting. The 4-year-old won over C&D last May and later in the season won over 6f on the July Course, beating subsequent Portland Handicap winner Oxted in the process. Just touched off on his seasonal reappearance, so he goes well fresh and as I mentioned yesterday, we know trainer Pam Sly can prepare one off a long layoff.
Pass The Vino won a 20 runner handicap at the July Meeting last year and ran to even better form figures when runner-up at the same venue and Ascot. Form tailed off later in the season. If the break has freshened, him up he can be competitive.
Amanda Perrett saddles Open Wide & Tinto. The former won at Windsor in June and then finished runner-up on his next three starts. The 6-year-old subsequently finished a length third to Swindler at Ascot and gets 5lb from that one today. Needs to be produced as late as possible but not handicapped out of it if the race is run to suit and he’s fit enough (has gone well fresh in the past). He just win often enough for me. Tinto won three times last season (two in the autumn). The 4-year-old looks to have a similar chance to his stablemate.
Summerghand & Flavius Titus ran against each other twice over C&D last Spring. The latter beat the former on the first occasion but Summerghand finished one place in front on their next start. Flavius Titus has since been sold and is now with Jedd O’Keeffe. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the weights although Summerghand did run respectably at Meydan during the winter and may have a slight fitness advantage. Flavius Titus goes well fresh – 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed when returning from a 121 to 365-day absence, goes well at the track and is 3 wins from 5 60% +14 on good to firm ground between April & June.
Verdict: Swindler still looks on a winnable mark but I wonder if the Wokingham is main early season target. Looks the most likely winner but look plenty short enough. It will be interesting to see how Jedd O’Keeffe does with Flavius Titus who is just 2lb above his last winning mark and goes well over C&D.
1pt win – Flavius Titus – 9/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – Top weight Skymax won here as 2-year-old, so handles the track, and put in a career best effort when 4th of 12 to Hamish in the Melrose Handicap at York in August. Not handicapped out of things if fit enough for his seasonal reappearance but is vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field.
Severance’s sole career win came as a 2-year-old but he put in a couple of decent efforts last season which bring him into contention, including when 6th of 16 in the valuable King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. Trip suits the 4-year-old and he needs respecting although he may prefer a bit more give in the ground.
The lightly raced Look Closely, Dubai Instinct & Edinburgh Castle appeal as possible improvers as 4-year-olds.
Look Closely, trained by Roger Varian, ran just four times last season and won a Leicester novice on his final start. Looks capable of more progress and winning races now going handicapping for the first time.
Dubai Instinct won two of his five starts last year, winning a Nottingham maiden and a Sandown handicap in August. Highly regarded by trainer Brian Meehan who described him as “progressive and he ought to be even better next year” after his Sandown win. Steps up to 1m 4f today, should stay, and Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking.
Edinburgh Castle, hails from the very much inform Andrew Balding yard. He just had the three starts last season winning at Epsom on heavy ground on his second start before finishing a close-up 3rd of 9 at Chelmsford. By Sea The Stars he should improve for the step up to 1m4f on pedigree and makes his handicap debut off a workable mark of 82.
Grandee is one of the more exposed of the twelve runners but he looks on a decent handicap mark. The 6-year-old can usually be relied on to give his running and a reproduction of his 2 ¼ length, 4th of 11 at York last May, off 5lb higher puts him firmly in the mix. Stays further than 1m 4f and if they go the forecast decent gallop then the race could be run to suit a hold up performer like him.
Verdict: Edinburgh Castle, Dubai Instinct & Look Closely are sure to be popular in the market given their lightly raced profiles. However, it may pay to go with one of the more exposed horses in the line up in Grandee who get the race run to suit.
1pt each way – Grandee – 14/1 @ Bet365
6:30 – Likely favourite Highland Dress has only had five career starts and won a 6f handicap at Southwell in March. Up 5lb for that win and back on turf today. Capable better of still if the 4-year-old takes to the grass.
Danzan has moved from Andrew Balding to the Tim Easterby. Can be placed to win races for his new connections this season and did go well of a break for his previous trainer.
Dream Today finished runner-up on his first two starts in Meydan in January. This race represents a drop-in class for the top-weight and he can’t be dismissed.
Wentworth Falls losing run is now 18 and goes back to April 2017 but he’s often placed in big field handicaps since. Looked an unlucky loser of today’s mark when 5th of 22 in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last September. Handicapped to win if ready to roll for the first time for 265-days.
Ice Lord is another nicely handicapped horse. Last win came in October 2018 at Doncaster, off 4lb higher. Ran really well on his seasonal reappearance when 4th of 15 behind Flavius Titus in a Class 2 C&D handicap last April. He didn’t get the clearest of run when making his effort two out and if he had got a clear run would have finished much closer to the winner. Can now race off 7lb lower and can win races off his present mark when he gets a good pace to chase.
Verdict: Wentworth Falls is well handicapped but is on a long losing run. Another well handicapped runner is Ice Lord who was unlucky in the run here last Spring and can race off a 7lb lower mark today.
1pt win – Ice Lord – 6/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John