Hi all,
If you were wondering where this weekly’s notebook is. I haven’t forgotten it but sadly I have been poorly over the last few days so haven’t had the energy to get around to doing it yet and instead I have concentrated on looking at the form for the next two days at Epsom.
Epsom Derby Festival – Day 1
Apart from the Oaks I have just looked at today’s handicap races.
2:35 – Recent eyecatcher History Writer has been running back into form and was a close-up 3rd at Sandown 8-days ago. He’s better drawn in stall 8 and can race off the same mark as he did last week. Will surely win a handicap like this before long. First run here at Epsom asks a new question but if handles the track, he can go close.
History Writer – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:45 – Elector impressed when winning on his seasonal reappearance. That was the 4-year-old’s first run since a gelding operation. Up just 2lb for that win means he must go close again and has a good draw in stall 3.
The eyecatcher of that race was Jazeel was beaten just a neck by Elector at Newmarket and is just 1lb better off. That was his first start of the season, so he’s entitled to strip fitter here. Drawn in stall 8 which could be better.
Mountain Angel won over C&D on his return to action. His trainer Roger Varian is 2 winners from 3 runners +6.75 in this race, including last year with Ajman King who won same race as Mountain Angel before winning this. Despite stall 6 he looks the one to beat for me.
Previous eyecatcher Ripp Orf also runsbut I’m not sure this track suits but he probably needs to win this to get into the Hunt Cup and he was beaten favourite in this race last year. albeit that was on soft ground and today’s sounder surface will be in his favour. Recent trainer form is also a slight concern at present
I can’t leave Jazeel out of calculations although I’m not sure about the track, but I also really like Mountain Angel’s recent C&D form. That said, Ripp Orf will probably now win as I’m leaving him out today.
Jazeel – 13/2 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way
Mountain Angel – 9/2 @ William Hill & Paddy Power
4:30 – Investec Oaks – This looks a more open race than the betting suggests. The filly’s classic has produced more than its fair share of shocks in the past ten years. Those horses returned between 20/1 & 50/1 have produced:
4 winners from 37 runners +77 7 placed – The expected wins from such priced horses should have been 1.17. If you had backed all 34 runners to Betfair SP you would have made a profit of +156.64.
So, whilst the likes of Pink Dogwood, Mehdaayih and Maqsad, in particular the, latter, could be special fillies.
As I mentioned in Monday’s Daily Punt column. “In an open looking year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see aa filly unfancied in the market make the places this year and maybe even win it”. With that in mind I’m looking further down the betting for some value with Lavender Blue & Tarnawa. The former, a daughter of Sea The Stars, is open to more progress on just her third career start and the latter wasn’t beaten far into third behind Pink Dogwood two starts back and won the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas on her last start. Like Lavender’s Blue she should appreciate the step up to 1m 4f.
Lavender Blue – 18/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way
Tarnawa – 28/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor – each way
5:50 – Nobleman’s Nest – The 4-year-old impressed when a decisive winner at Yarmouth on his final start of last season. Seasonal reappearance here of just 4lb higher and he can give his supporters a decent run for their money if fully tuned up. Did win off a 112 -day break last season so there is hope that he will be. Trainer Simon Crisford is 2 winners from 3 runners +4.75 at this meeting in the past 5-years and jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 27%-win strike rate at Epsom, including 13 winners from 37 runners 355 +23.46 20 placed 54% over C&D.
Nobleman’s Nest – 7/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power
Recent Eyecatcher Running
Chelmsford
7:40 – Rio Ronaldo – Has won on the tapeta, although his best effort subsequently has come on the turf. Handicapped to win but he’s only beaten two rivals on either of his two starts here at Chelmsford.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available.
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John