Hi all,
Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 3
The management of Doncaster racecourse must disappointed with field sizes for their Class 2 handicaps. There are some really noncompetitive races from a betting perspective today but I have still managed to find three selections.
2:10 – Angel’s Hideaway would win this with a reproduction of her 1,000 Guineas 4th and Jersey Stakes third. However, she’s a bit to hit or miss for me and she hasn’t run well on either start since Royal Ascot, albeit they were at Goodwood. This track will suit her better.
The favourite is the Roger Varian filly Farzeen. She’s won her last two starts. The latter of those wins came in a Kempton novice last month. At Kempton she looked a smart filly in the making and you can see why connections are giving it a go in a Group 3 today. Connections have some reservations about the quick ground and she by no means a certain runner.
A stiff 7f looks ideal for Di Fede. She’s consistent and arguably put in a career best when a 2 length 4 of 12 to Suedois in a Group 3 at Goodwood 19-days ago. I had the 4-year-old down as a filly at her best on soft ground, but her trainer Ralph Beckett doesn’t seem perturbed as he’s told the Racing Post “The ground is no concern, she doesn’t worry about anything.”. Three-year-old’s have won eight out of the last ten running’s of the race but that age group has had 67% of the total runners.
Di Fede – 6/1 @ Bet365
2:40 – The Mallard Handicap has had an average field size of 11 in the past ten years. This year’s renewal has attracted just six runners. Saroog comes into the race on hat trick after wins at Ascot and Newmarket. He’s capable of more improvement but 11/8 doesn’t appeal.
Mark Johnston has trained the winner of this race twice since 2012 and he saddles my idea of the winner in Charles Kingsley. A three-time winner this season, two of them coming in races with field sizes 7 or less. The 3-year-old has won on quick ground, stays the trip and is just 2lb above his last winning mark.
Charles Kingsley – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
5:30 – Effective over 6f/7f this intermediate distance could well suit Reputation who was beaten just ½ length into second in a better race than this at Newmarket back in July and now race off 4lb lower. Not so good on three subsequent starts but there have been excuses with the all-weather and soft ground not being to his liking. Trainer Ruth Carr is 0 winners from 21 runners in the past 14-days which is a big concern but at around 12/1 and with 8 runners I can chance the stable form each way.
Reputation – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way
Cheers
John