Hi all,
On the eve of the St Leger and Irish Champions Weekend things are going to hot up on the selections front. I have looked at six of the seven races at Doncaster and my betting advice is at the end of the preview.
Cazoo St Leger Festival – Day 2
I’m happy to leave out the first race which is a juvenile maiden.
1:40 – Cazoo Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 7f
Eldrickjones remains a maiden after five starts but still he tops the RPR’s for the race. He’s been running in Group 2 company on his last four starts so this is a drop-in class. Looks worth another try over 7f on a sound surface. Should be there or thereabouts but is vulnerable to any improvers among his nine rivals.
Noble Truth heads the ante post betting for the race. The Charlie Appleby trained colt looked a useful prospect when winning a Newmarket maiden two starts back but disappointed when upped to Group 3 company at York last time. He was too keen in the early stages and didn’t convince with his finishing effort either. Maybe the track didn’t suit but he has questions to answer after that run.
Hoo Ya Mal won Britain’s richest maiden race at York last month. He remains open to further improvement and holds a Group 1 entry.
Razzle Dazzle holds three Group 1 entries and comfortably landed a Newmarket novice contest 14-days ago on his second career start. There should be more progress to come from the colt who looks a nice prospect.
Find got his head in front at the fourth attempt when easily dismissing five rivals in a Yarmouth novice 12-days ago. Prior to that he had finished runner-up to smart juveniles Lusail and Bayside Boy.
No fancy entries yet for the Shadwell pair of Ribhi & Alflaila. The first named created a good impression when making a winning racecourse debut at Salisbury last month. He powered away from his rivals showing a nice change of gear to lead inside the final furlong. He’s got scope for plenty of improvement. Interesting that connections opt to come here rather than go for a race under a penalty. Alflaila finished a 1 ½ length 2nd of 16 to Harrow in York nursery last month. Given he made his effort wider than the winner his effort can be marked up a bit.
Verdict: If the Roger Fell yard was in better form, then Eldrickjones would look a nice price at around 15/2. Ribhi created a good impression and is open to more improvement and would be my choice.
2:10 – Wainwright Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Armor looked a very smart juvenile when winning the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood. Slightly below that form when 2 ¼ length 4th of 14 in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time. Back at the minimum trip and won’t be inconvenienced if the thunderstorms arrive as it was soft when he won at Goodwood. Remains the one to beat.
Corazon built on the promise of his racecourse debut when winning Lingfield novice last month before improving when winning a Group 3 at Deauville 8-days ago. The filly showed a good battling attitude to prevail as she was headed inside the final furlong before rallying to get back up in the shadow of the post. There should be more to come from her and she should give the favourite a race.
The Organiser a soft ground winner at York on his racecourse debut in May. Not disgraced but found Group 2 company to hot on just his second start in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The colt ran better than his 3-length 6th of 11 suggest behind Lusail in the Group 2 July Stakes the following month. He didn’t get the best of runs a 1f out that day or would have finished closer. Another useful effort when beaten a head, trying to give the useful Pearl Glory 5lb at Salisbury last time. Drop back to 5f doesn’t seem a bad move but he probably needs some ease in the ground to win this.
Caturra just failed to get up when beaten ½ length in the Listed Roses Stakes at York last time. Trainer Clive Cox saddled the winner of the race in 2017 but Caturra needs Armor to under perform and some of the less exposed runners to fail to progress if he’s to win.
Verdict: Armor has the best form coming into the race but if the thundery showers have arrived to ease the ground, I can see The Organiser dropped back to the minimum trip giving him a race.
2:40 – Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) – 2m 2f
The feature race of day 3 of the St Leger Festival. The Stradivarius/Trushan match could be on if the forecast showers arrive. If the ground is on the soft side of good and they go a decent gallop to enable Trueshan to settle I think he can win but if it’s a sedate pace and the race is tactical you must fancy Stradivarius. It looks a two-horse race on the figures although I can see the sole 3-year-old Alerta Roja outrunning her odds. The filly gets plenty of weight from the big two, stays 2m well and looks like she will improve for the step up 2m 2f. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott won the race in 2015 and his form figures with 3-year-olds are 3434. Sadly, there are just seven runners but I can see her getting into the first four.
Verdict: If the rain has arrived then my preference is for Trueshan but don’t rule out a big run from the 3-year-old filly Alerta Roja.
3:15 – racehorselotto.com Mallard Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6 ½ f
The first of three handicaps that conclude today’s card. It’s tightly knit handicap. All eyes on the potentially well handicapped Sevenna Star from the shrewd Emmet Mullins yard. The 6-year-old was classy 3-year-old who won Sandown’s Classic Trial before running down the field in the 2018 Epsom Derby when trained by John Gosden. Only joined his present yard in the spring and has run well on his last two starts off a much-reduced mark. Runner-up over 2m at Tramore two starts back and he was doing his best work at the finish when 4th of 10 at Killarney over 1m 6f 22-days ago. First time hood applied and he looks a better horse than his current mark of 80. if the money arrives that should be heeded.
Prince Alex needs the heavens to open if he’s to win. Likewise Rhythmic Intent also needs the ground to ease. He looked worth another try over 1m 6f when 5th of 15 at York last month. Future Investment is consistent sort in these staying handicaps but edges up the weights for not winning. The first time cheekpieces are applied which may eke out the improvement to win off a mark of 97.
Sovereign Duke wasn’t seen on the flat in 2020. Returned to original trainer Henry Candy, after going hurdling with Jeremy Snowden. The 6-year-old built on his Kempton reappearance in June with a good effort when a 1 ¼ Length 2nd of 12 at Sandown 19-days ago. Just 1lb higher but remains on a competitive mark based on his back form. This a better race than last time but Saffie Osborne takes off a handy 5lb and he’s got each way claims.
Verdict: A bigger field than for recent renewals and open looking handicap. Sevenna Star is an interesting contender for the shrewd Emmet Mullins yard. . However, at the prices I’m happy to take a chance with two at bigger odds. Rhythmic Intent ran well at York last time and looks worth another go at 1m 6f. Sovereign Duke has each way claims
3:45 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2) – 6 ½ f
Chairmanoftheboard is now 1lb below his last winning mark and shaped better than his 5-length 5th of 13 at Thirsk last time suggests. Slowly away that day he also met trouble in the run when making his effort 1f out and wasn’t subjected to hard race when his jockey realized his chance had gone.
Asjad is the least exposed runner in the field, The 3-year-old has only had the three career starts and was only touched off by a head by one of today’s rivals Desert Doctor at Ffos Las 2-weeks ago. He get’s 1lb from the winner today and has more scope for improvement.
Kimifive was only beaten a head in last season’s Stewards Cup at Goodwood. Now 5lb lower he shaped nicely enough when a ¾ length 3rd of 5 at Epsom 10-days ago on his second start since joining a new yard. Has dropped 3lb in the weights since that run and a return to a more strongly run race should suit. On a losing run of 25 but the 7-year-old is well handicapped if all the cards fall right.
Bernardo O’Reilly is a useful sprint handicapper at his best but is a bit of an in/out performer. Was on a going day when winning here over 6f at last year’s St Leger Festival and when coming up against an improving 3-year-old at Ascot 7-days ago. Back down to his last winning mark but his hold up style means he needs a strong pace to chase but if he gets one, he won’t be far away. Effective enough on quick ground but his best form has come on an easier surface.
Raatea took advantage of a handy mark when coming from the rear to win at Newmarket last month. He’s been raised 5lb for that success but there could be more to come from the 4-year-old who has only had seven starts on the grass.
Verdict: Kimifive is a well handicapped horse if the cards fall right but the 25 long losing run is a slight concern. Chairmanoftheboard ran well at Thirsk last time and is another capable of winning off his present mark. Asjad is a lightly raced and open to further improvement but lacks the experience of these older handicappers. Raatea appreciated quick ground when winning at Newmarket last time and is another who could be capable of better performance. Bernardo O’Reilly needs a strongly run race, if he gets it won’t be far away and any rain would be a plus for him.
4:20 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Viola beat Sea La Rosa a neck over C&D when last seen in action 55-days ago. She’s 6lb higher now but the runner-up has improved since which means she meets Sea La Rosa on 1lb better terms here.
Sea La Rosa shaped well for this when a ½ length 2nd of 12 at York last time. That was over an extended 1m 2f and she’s got scope for more improvement returned 1m 4f. Up 2lb for her York effort but Adam Farragher takes off a useful 5lb which negates her rise in the weights.
A Thousand Oaks showed improved form for the step up to 1m 4f when winning a Newmarket novice last month. The 3-year-old is open to further improvement and looks on a workable mark for her handicap debut.
Ms Gandhi got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning a 1m 2f Ripon Handicap 27-days ago. The daughter of Kingman is bred to improve for the step up 1m 4f and shouldn’t be far away although this is a deeper race than last time.
Verdict: A small field but some unexposed fillies who are open to further improvement. Ms Gandhi could improve for the step up in distance. There shouldn’t be much between Viola and Sea La Rosa and at the prices the former makes plenty of appeal. I wouldn’t be surprised if A Thousand Oaks won this on her handicap debut but she’s plenty short enough in the betting.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
2:10 – 1pt win – The Organiser – 13/2 @ Bet365
3:15 – 1pt win – Rhythmic Intent – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt each way – Sovereign Duke – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – 1pt win – Kimifive – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 1pt win – Bernardo O’Reilly – 14/1 @ Bet365
4:20 – 1pt win – Viola – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John