Hi all,
It’s the start of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. Although looking at the seven-race card it’s hardly worthy of the name in terms of class, with the most valuable race being the Listed Scarbrough Stakes. Thankfully we have the Kerry National at the Listowel Festival which is the big race of the day either side of the Irish Sea.
Doncaster
2:25 – Oweney Madden made it 2 wins from his last 3 starts when winning a Class 2 nursery at York 21-days ago. He only got up close home over 6f and can improve for the step up in distance. Mind you he must, as the handicapper has raised the colt 9lb for his York success. The Martyn Meade stable has been hit by a virus which is a slight concern but hopefully this one is clear of it.
Oweney Madden – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Top weight Hariboux is now 3 wins from 4 starts. The gelding took advantage of a lenient handicap mark to come from behind to win at Newmarket 18-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 10lb for his last win, but he might not have stopped progressing just yet.
4:45 – Another small field for this 1m 2f Conditions race with just six going to post. Loxley won a Group 2 at Deauville last August before finishing a well beaten 10th in the St Leger (6/1). Hasn’t been seen since finishing 5th of 10 in a Group 1 at Meydan back in March. Has been gelded since that run and goes well fresh, having won first time up in the last two seasons. Best form has come with some juice in the ground and may want further than 1m 2f but he’s 4lb clear on official ratings and is the class horse of the race.
Willie John won a C&D novice (good to firm) here 13 months ago and put in a career best when runner-up to Elarqam, beaten 2 ½ lengths back in May. Was well behind that horse at Royal Ascot but wouldn’t have liked the rain softened ground there. First start since Ascot but he should be fit enough and will appreciate the return to quicker ground. Trainer Roger Varian is 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +45.88 A/E 1.85 10 placed 59% in Class 1 & Class 2 non-handicaps at the St Leger Festival in the past 5 -years and won this race in 2016 & 2017.
Willie John – 7/2 @ Paddy Power
5:20 – The most competitive race of the day with 20 runners declared to go to post for this 5f handicap.
Paul Midgley won the race in 2011 and he saddles Line Of Reason. The 9-year-old is a bit an in and out these days but is handicapped to win this if at his best. He’s now 6lb lower than when a length 3rd of 19 at York back in June. Bounced backed to form when 3rd of 9, beaten ½ length, behind Harry Hurricane at Windsor 9-days ago. Final Venture has the back class to win this and shaped like he was coming back to form last time.
Not for the first time this season Abel Handy disappointed 11-days ago. James Doyle whose form figures on the 4-year-old are 164 is back in the saddle which is a positive. The Declan Carroll trained runner races of his last winning mark and he was 6th here in last season’s Portland Handicap as a 3-year-old. Big chance at the weights if you forgive his lifeless run last time.
Line Of Reason – 7/1 @ William Hill
Listowel
4:15 – Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m
I see the Kerry National as the first big handicap chase of the winter jumps season. A maximum field of runners are set run with €118,000 on offer to the winner.
Dell’ Arca, trained David Pipe was staying on strongly at the end of last year’s race to finish 4th, beaten 4 3/4, is 6lb lower now and is nicely handicapped if he can reproduce last year’s run. Not really run to that level since and at ten is vulnerable to any improvers in the field.
Shantou Village was 5th in this 12 months ago. He ran well for a long way and was just outstayed by those who finished ahead of him. The soft ground wasn’t his favour either. He’s attractively weighted, being 2lb lower than his last winning mark and if the ground is no worse than yielding has each way claims. Robbie Power takes the ride and he will be riding at his minimum weight of 10-4.
Movewiththetimes looks set to go off favourite. Formerly with Paul Nicholls the 8-year-old was well fancied to make a winning start for Enda Bolger when sent off the 7/1 joint favourite for the Galway Plate but fell at the 9th. Made no mistake when landing a beginners’ chase at Killarney 20-days ago. Despite being a novice, he’s got plenty of experience in big field handicaps over fences & hurdles. Yet to try 3m but should stay and will like the ground.
Ravenhill trained by Gordon Elliott ran a cracker to finish 5th in the Galway Plate. The step up to 3m will suit the 8-year-old. However, will the going, if it turns soft? His best form has come on a sound surface so far in his career. Big chance off a nice racing weight.
Poker Party only got as far as the second in the Galway Plate. A good novice last season he should be suited by the step up to 3m and will like the ground. The 7-year-old needs to improve further but may be capable of doing so on his second season over fences.
Trainer Eric McNamara has won the Kerry National three times and he has two live contenders in Internal Transfer & first reserve Black Scorpion. The former made it 2 from 2 over fences when winning a Limerick handicap chase. He’s been raised 9lb for that win and lacks the experience of most of his rivals. At least there’s no issues with rain softened ground and he’s capable of more improvement over fences. Black Scorpion, who was impressive last year when winning a handicap chase here 12 months ago and then ran just as well when 3rd in the Munster National at Limerick on his next start. The 8-year returned to action from a 200-day break to finish 3rd of 11 over an inadequate 2m 1`f at Killarney last month, doing his best work at the finish. That race should have put him spot on fitness wise for this and this has been the plan since he won here 12 months ago. If he gets in, can go well off just 9-11.
Icantsay wasn’t so good over hurdles on his last startbut prior to that had ran a cracker to finish 2nd of 16 in the Galway Blazers. Last years Killarney National winner, off 4lb lower, looks the sort to do well in a race like this. Goes well at the track with form figures 2231. A useful 5lb claimer has been booked for the ride and the 9-year-old has a good chance of getting into the money with a reproduction of his Galway run.
Willie Mullins saddles Pravalaguna, Some Neck & Yorkhill and all three have chances. The first named was 7th in the Galway Plate but 3 miles may stretch the mare’s stamina. Some Neck gets the first-time blinkers. No issues with the trip for the 8-year-old who is a real staying type. Tried to give Yorkhill 7lb at Galway but was not match for his stablemate at the weights. His jumping let him down at Galway as it did when second favourite for the Thyestes Handicap Chase back in January. More than capable of landing a race like this off his present mark with an error free round of jumping. Yorkhill is a horse with plenty of ability but has a mind of his own. The 9-year-old won the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham festival in 2017. He’s better going left-handed and he’s clearly a well handicapped horse if he puts it all in. The question is will he?
Verdict: Yorkhill is the class horse who could beat these easily if he feels like it. Some Neck is another potential winner, but he needs to jump better. Icantsay may lack a bit of class but he’s got each way claims. As does Dell’ Arca. Movewiththetimes remains capable of much better over fences and is a worthy market leader.
The going could play a big part in the outcome. The better the ground the better the more I like Ravenhill’s chance. The same applies to last year’s 5th Shantou Village. The Eric McNamara pair are strong contenders. The sounder surface will benefit Black Scorpion if he sneaks in the race, but softer ground would favour his other runner Internal Transfer.
In the hope that the going is no worse than yielding I will go for Black Scorpion, if he gets in and Shantou Village.
Black Scorpion – 9/1 @ Paddy Power
Shantou Village – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John