Hi all,
Chester May Festival – Day 1
The going is good at the time of writing this, but rain is forecast. It all depends how much we get between now and the start of racing which will determine whether it’s on the easy side of good or genuinely soft.
1:50 – The 5f Lily Agnes Stakes for 2-year-olds. Top Buck was easy to back on his juvenile debut at Windsor, 9 days ago. Still he ran well to finish runners-up that day. Should improve for that experience and has a good draw in stall 2. Genuinely soft ground would be an unknown for the son of Dandy Man but it would be for most of the runners. It’s a race I probably shouldn’t really get involved in but Top Buck is a tentative each-way play at around 8/1 to go one better than last time.
Top Buck – 8/1 @ Bet365 – each way
3:00 – A tricky handicap sprint for which 11 are declared to go to post.
Leodis Dream, trained by David O’Meara, come in to the race looking for his fifth successive win and impressive form figures of 21111. Won on good to soft at Catterick back in October. However, both this seasons wins have come on good to firm at Thirsk and Sandown 12 days ago. He showed plenty of early speed last time and the handicapper has only put him up for 4lb for that win. Never seems to win by far which make life tough for the handicapper could be pattern level sprinter in the making. Stall six could be better but it could be a lot worse.
Society Queen, has to be respected. The Richard Fahey trained filly won two of her four starts as a juvenile. The latter of those win came in July when she won a York nursery on good to soft. Ran well on her first start last season so should be fit enough. Up 6lb for her last win but the useful Sean Davis takes off 5lb. Trainer among the winners and stall 4 is a good one.
The softer the ground the better for previous C&D winners Dave Dexter from the inform Ralph Beckett yard. He won’t be 14/1 should plenty of rain arrive. Stall nine could have been better though. Tom Dascombe saddles three and the best of those could be C&D winner She Can Boogie out of stall five.
Verdict: I think Leodis Dream can continue his progression and win this,but it might also be worth chancing an each -way saver on Society Queen on her seasonal return. Dave Dexter will be of interest if the going got very soft but stall 9 does slightly temper enthusiasm.
Leodis Dream – 9/2 @ Paddy Power
Society Queen – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way
3:35 – The most valuable race of the day the Group 3 Cheshire Vase. Aidan O’Brien saddles three of the eight runners. Ryan Moore has opted for Norway but soft ground would be an unknown for the colt who has the look of a St Leger contender. Get the first time cheekpieces and if he’s effective on the ground has the form to win this. His other runners are Gentile Bellini & Sir Dragonet. The latter comes in to the race after just one run which was a win at Tipperary 13-days ago. Open to improvement but drawn out wide in stall 8. The former has a good draw in stall 2. The son of Dubawi made all to win at Cork on his seasonal reappearance and in race which there doesn’t look there’s much in early pace he could get an easy lead out in front.
The more rain the better for the Charlie Fellowes trained King Ottoker. The son of Motivator really impressed when winning at Newbury. That win came on soft ground and he’s now 2 from 2 on that ground. The extra two furlongs will suit that’s for sure. If he handles the track and the rain arrives, he would probably go off favourite.
Dashing Willoughby & Kaloor were second & third behind the Fellowes horse at Newbury. The former is another who will appreciate the rain. Whilst the latter was an eyecatcher for from that race. The step up to 1m 4f should really suit Kaloor who is a colt with plenty of improvement to come on his just his third career start. Each way claims here but I think he would prefer a sounder surface than seems likely.
Verdict: The rain will have a big bearing on the result of this race. The more rain the better for King Ottoker but how will he handle the twists and turns of Chester? He’s a horse i do like a lot. Norway is the class horse of the race, but soft ground is an unknown for the colt. Kaloor will be suited by the step up to 1m 4f but the suspicion is he might be better on a sounder surface. Norway’s stablemate Gentile Bellini made all to win at Cork on his seasonal reappearance and could get the race run to suit again.
Kaloor -18/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way
4:35 – Wild Edric, trained by Tom Dascombe, has a big chance out of stall 3. The 3-year-old made all to win a soft C&D nursery back in September off 2lb lower. He wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 11 at Pontefract on good to firm on his recent seasonal reappearance. Slight concern that he won’t get an uncontested. But any rain likely enhances his already strong claims.
Andrew Balding has an excellent record in handicaps at this meeting. In the past five seasons he’s had 7 winners from 18 runners 39% +38.58 A/E 2.9 11 placed 62%. I’m backing his handicap runners blind this week. He saddles Pass The Gin whose sole 2-year-old win from six starts came here over C&D back in July (good). She wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 10 back here in a 7f nursery in September. That was on soft ground and he seemed to handle the ground well enough. Made a pleasing return to action when 3rd behind Leodis Dream over 5f at Sandown 12-days ago. Up 3lb for that good effort but today’s extra furlong will be more in her favour. Stall nine could be a lot better though and the trainer’s not in the hot form he was two weeks ago.
Pass The Gin – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:05 – Another 7f handicap this time for four-year-old + horses. There’s been early support for Gossiping whose early price has halved. The 7-year-old seemed to bounce back to life when winning at Kempton 42-days ago off a much lower AW mark. Returns to the scene of his best run of 2018 when runner-up in the Class 2 handicap over C&D 12 months ago. He’s 8lb lower in Class 4 race and to well handicapped to ignore even from stall 9.
Gin In The Inn has been running mostly over 6f but the 6-year-old was only beaten a short head in this race two years ago on his last go at the trip. He had won first time up in his last seasons but looked in need of the run when 5th of 15 at Ripon 11-days ago, a race he had won last year. Handicapped to go well with Sean Davis taking off a further 5lb. Big chance out of stall 3 for trainer Richard Fahey. Like Gossiping has been well found in the early bird market for the race.
Verdict: The market hasn’t missed the chances of Gossiping and Gin In The Inn. I wouldn’t normally be happy with former’s draw over this distance but he’s to temptingly handicapped to ignore. He and Gin In The Inn will do for me.
Gossiping – 4/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Gin In The Inn – 5/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Cheers
John