Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

Hi all,

It’s almost done and dusted as we head into the final day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. There’s more great action in store for us today on Gold Cup Day. It’s been a tough four day on the punting front. However, the sport has been excellent and there have been some stellar performances.

Just like the last three days I have looked at all seven races on day four. It’s going to be a ‘death or glory day’ on the betting front so buckle up and prepare for the ride. As ever my betting advice follows at the end of today’s preview.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

The going wasn’t as soft as I thought it would be on Thursday and with a dry, sunny and mild day being forecast the ground is likely to dry out further.

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Provided the ground isn’t to heavy Vauban looks the one to be with after his recent Grade 1 Leopardstown success. Pied Piper shouldn’t be far away and did get the better of Vauban when the pair made their hurdling debuts. It looks like Davy Russell has opted for Fil Dor who was no match for Vauban last time but could get closer in a race where the emphasis on stamina. Of the home team the recent rain hasn’t helped Knight Salute but it was a positive for Porticello.

Verdict: Vauban could be a special and who could be a Group horse on the level. The best of the home team looks to be Knight Salute who will appreciate the drying ground and has each way claims.

2:10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f

With 28 declared to run it’s not surprising you can make claims for pretty much most of them. West Cork won the Greatwood Hurdle here in November and is better than he was able to show at Ascot a month later but I’m not sure he wants too soft.

Suprise Package has a 5lb penalty to carry for his easy success in Saturday’s Imperial Cup.  Now 5lb extra wouldn’t have stopped him at Sandown so he as to be respected on what seems likely to be similar ground and the yard won this 12 months ago with Belfast Banter. Must be on the high shortlist provided this race doesn’t come to quick.

State Man a faller two out on his debut for Willie Mullins The 5-year-old made no mistake when winning a Limerick maiden (soft) last month. He’s only had three career starts so lacks the experience of most of his rivals but is open to plenty of improvement. Stablemate Tempo Chapter Two isn’t out of this despite his big odds. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles when winning at Fairyhouse last month. Doesn’t look on bad mark for his handicap debut but does need to jump better than he did last time.

Top Bandit has been well placed to win his last three starts, including here in October (good). The 6-year-old looks open to more improvement but his best form so far has come on a sounder surface.

Colonel Mustard’s 12 length 3^rd of 8 to Sir Gerhard in a Grade 1 last time looks decent form given that one’s success in Wednesday’s Ballymore. A strongly run 2m on soft ground could be ideal for the 7-year-old.

First Street is a progressive novice and there was plenty to like about his 3 ¾ length 3^rd of 14 in last months Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. He’s up 1lb for that effort but there could be more to come from the 5-year-old.

Éclair De Beaufeu’s record at the festival means he must be respected despite his poor recent form. He was in the process of going close in the 2019 County Hurdle when unseating his rider at the last. He then finished runner-up in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the following year’s festival. Last season was a 2 ½ length 4^th of 25 to Belfast Banter in last season’s race and is 3lb lower here.

Gua Du Large likely wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft. The 6-year-old bounced back from a low-key seasonal return to win a valuable 2m handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse (good) when last seen in action 110-days ago. Could do even better for the step up in distance but does need a sound surface.

Verdict: Plenty of potential unexposed horses here. Top Bandit is one of them and drier ground is a plus. State Man is open to more improvement as his bigger priced stablemate Tempo Chapter Two. Suprise Package is high on the shortlist after his easy Imperial Cup win. The drying ground will suit Gua Du Large and he could be capable of better. The form of the Nicky Henderson runners this week means First Street must be respected after third placed effort in the Betfair Hurdle. You can’t rule out Éclair De Beaufeu given his record at the festival.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Hillcrest is a worthy market leader after his recent success on a heavy ground in a Grade 2 at Haydock last month. He looks well suited to today’s serious stamina test.

Ginto won a Grade 1 at Naas last time. That was over 2m 4f on soft ground but he races like he will improve further for the step up to 3m.

Minella Cocooner made all to win a Grade 1 at Dublin Racing Festival. He remains capable of better but that win came over 2m 6f and he’s not certain to be as good over 3m. His stablemate The Nice Guy lacks the experience of most of rivals but couldn’t have been more impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Naas in January.

I tipped Falcon Eight ante post 33/1 for this but I suspect the rain has scuppered his hopes. No problem with testing ground for Shantreusse who has improved to win his last two on heavy ground. A neat jumper of a hurdle, he stays very well and this race should suit the 6-year-old.

Another ideal type for the race is Ballygrifincottage. A onto win a three-time point winner the 7-year-old finished a 6 ¼ length 3^rd of 7 to the useful Blazing Khal over C&D in December. He’s since gone onto win a Lingfield novice on heavy ground.

Stag Horn, a strong stayer in the mud on the flat, has taken well to hurdling winning both his starts over hurdles, including a Grade 2 at Warwick last time. The 5-year-old’s latest success came over 2m 5f but he’s open to further improvement stepped up to 3m.

Good Time Jonny was supplemented for this after showing improved from to win back-to-back handicap hurdles at Leopardstown. The latest of which came over 3m at the Dublin Racing Festival and his big field experience will be helpful.

The Real Whacker is nice staying prospect. A winner at Carlisle two starts back. He then improved again when a 2-length 2nd of 7 in Grade novice hurdle at Doncaster last time. Needs to have improved again to win this but he’s capable of better.

Verdict: A competitive looking renewal and it looks a good race. Falcon Eight a classy stayer on the flat needs to improve on what he has shown so far over hurdles but if the ground continues to dry up, he should run well. Hillcrest deserves to head the betting but horses who ran at Haydock prior to running here are 1 from 126 since 2016. Shantreusse looks an improving stayer who will relish this stamina test and don’t rule out the progressive staying handicap winner and the recently supplemented Good Time Jonny.

3:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f

Minella Indo looks to have a good chance of back-to-back Gold Cup winners. Stablemate A Plus Tard was runner-up last year. He’s since gone onto win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock before finishing runner-up to Galvin in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown last time. May find one or two stronger stayers over this trip but drying ground will be a positive.

Galvin is an improving stayer who won the National Hunt Chase here last season before getting up close home to beat A Plus Tard. This trip should will suit him even better than 3m around Leopardstown. He’s another who will appreciate drying conditions.  

Tornado Flyer proved his stamina for 3m when winning the King George VI at Kempton last time. He’s got another 2 ½ f to travel today but you wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed it. If he does, he’s got the form to be there or thereabouts. Stablemate and double Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo get the first time cheekpieces. There doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace, so the 10-year-old could go to the front in the first time headgear. Not out of it but that 10-year-old plus stat in Championship races is of concern.

The recent rain came at the right time for Royale Pagaille. He struggled in this race on good to soft 12 months ago and the more testing the ground the better for 8-year-old.

There’s a lot of confidence around for Protektorat. I think he’s a Grade 1 Chaser in the making but I just wonder if he will prove better at a bit shorter than 3m 2f..

Verdict: As ever the Gold Cup provides a unique test. You must stay 3m 2f strongly but you also need class.  If the ground was like it was on Wednesday, then Royale Pagaille would have a good chance. I think A Plus Tard might find stronger stayer or two at the trip and I think Galvin can confirm placings with that one again. Ok, there are doubts about the reliability of the King George VI form but my tentative selection is Tornado Flyer who I think could improve for the further step up in distance.

4:10 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2 ½ f

Not a race I normally looking to having a bet in. However, I do like one here at its Winged Leader. A multiple point and hunter chase winner, looks to have improved plenty this season as evidenced by his comfortable seasonal return win in a Thurles hunter chase in January. He’s a sound jumper of a fence and given he’s only an 8-year-old we may not have seen the best of him in the sphere.

4:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Another race which I haven’t looked at in any detail. A chance is taken with the novice Concertista who made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Grade 2 mares’ only novices chase at Limerick over Christmas. The 8-year-old was successful in the Mares novices’ hurdle at the 2020 festival and finished runner-up the Mares Hurdle last season. Given she’s only had two starts over fences she’s capable of better and could find the improvement necessary to win.

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Langer Dan finished runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in last year’s race. He’s only 2lb higher this time around and will have been laid out for this. Had nice spin at Taunton 24-days ago which should have blown away the cobwebs. Looks a very nicely treated horse.

Decimation shaped as if needing the run after 10 months off when 6 length 7th of 16 to Carrig Sam in handicap at Fairyhouse last month. Will be sharper today and look on a workable mark.

Quinta Do Mar won twice on good ground in the autumn before putting in a personal best when 4^th of 12 here in December. Was in the process of running a big race when falling at the last in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. Vulnerable to better handicapped horses but won’t be far away if the ground continues to dry out.

Cobblers Dream bids for the hat trick after wins at Doncaster and latterly in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. He’s up 8lb for his Kempton success but his improvement may not have stopped yet. Drying ground won’t be an inconvenience either and he’s got solid claims.

Banbridge made it 3-5 over hurdles when winning a Navan novice hurdle last time. His latest success came over 2m and he’s capable of better stepped back up in trip.

Chemical Energy made it 2-3 over hurdles when winning at Fairyhouse in November. The return to 2m 4f suited the 6-year-old who seem to have been kept fresh for this. Jockey Shane Fitzgerald won on the horse last time which is a further plus to his chance here. Another who will be suited by drying ground. I tipped up his stablemate The Goffer ante post at 16/1. The 6-year-old seems to improving with racing and last time out won a Grade 3 at Thurles. There was plenty to like about his attitude the last day and although needs to improve for his handicap debut that’s certainly possible given his profile.

Adamantly Chosen got off the mark at the third time of asking over hurdles when winning at Thurles last month. His Thurles win came over 2m but he’s bred to improve for the step up to 2m 4f. Looks to have a good chance with last time out winning jockey Richie Deegan keeping the ride. Stablemate Five O’Clock is having his first start since finishing a 4 ½ length 7^th of 23 in this race in 2020. Hard to know how much ability remains after his long time on the sidelines but he could be capable of better and is 4lb lower than 2-years ago. Jack Foley is also a positive jockey booking.

Verdict: Langer Dan will be plenty of punters get out of trouble horse here. There’s no doubting he’s on a good mark but will he find one even better handicapped like 12 months ago. There are plenty of unexposed types who could be ahead of their marks. They include my ante post selection The Goffer, his stablemate Chemical Energy and Banbridge. Adamantly Chosen has the potential to improve for the step up to 2m 4f. Of the more experienced handicap hurdlers Quinta Do Mar will appreciate the drying ground and has each way claims. As will Lanzarote Hurdle winner Cobblers Dream.

Betting Advice:

2:10 – 1pt win – Suprise Package- 11/1 @ William Hill and 1pt win – Top Bandit – 14/1 @Bet365 and 0.5pts each way – Éclair De Beaufeu – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 7 places 1/5 odds).

2:50 – 1pt win – Good Time Johnny – 16/1 @ Bet365

3:30 – 1pt win – Tornado Flyer – 14/1 @ Bet365

5:30 – 1pt win – Banbridge – 12/1 @ William Hill, 1pt win – Cobblers Dream – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts each way – Quinta Do Mar – 40/1 @ Bet365 (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John