Hi all,
A bit of uncertainty as to how rain the track will receive on Wednesday. It could be anywhere between 3mm & 9mm depending on the forecast you are using. There’s even a possibility that they could do some watering overnight. After today its dry and spring like weather for Thursday and Friday.
Inside today’s preview I look at all the races on day two. Like yesterday, I’m concentrating my betting on the two ultra-competitive handicap races.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 2
1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f
Sir Gerhard, having bypassed Tuesday’s Supreme is likely to go off odds on here. He’s not bred to improve for the step up to 2m 5f. However, his class may get him through against some weak looking opponents.
For those looking for an alternative to the favourite Journey With Me could be the answer. The 6-year-old has won his four starts under rules, including two over hurdles. He’s a sound jumper of a hurdle and is capable of better. Good ground would be an unknown but the yard won this with Bob Olinger last year.
The best of the home contenders is likely to be the Paul Nicholls, trained Stage Star who impressed when winning the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury in December and won’t be inconvenienced by the ground.
Verdict: Despite concerns over stamina, I think Sir Gerhard’s class will get him through here.
2:10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Eleven novice chasers are set to go to post for an intriguing renewal and arguably one of the most open of the Grade 1 races.
Bravemansgame heads the betting. The 7-year-old is a good jumper of a fence and comes into the race having won all four of starts over the larger obstacles. I think he’s better on a flatter track and maybe over slightly shorter but he’s a worthy market leader and the better the ground the better his chance.
Ahoy Senor wasn’t at his best when runner-up to Bravemansgame at Kempton two starts back. However, he bounced back to best when making all to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby last month. Going left-handed suits but this will be the biggest field he has faced over fences so far. We haven’t seen the best of the 7-year-old over fences and he can win this especially of the rain arrives.
The decision by Venetia Williams to bring L’Homme Presse here rather than go for the 2m 5f race adds more spice to the contest. The 7-year-old has won all four of his starts over the larger obstacles and showed he handles Cheltenham well when winning the Dipper Novices Chase on New Year’s Day. He’s an economical jumper of a fence and should stay 3m.
The Irish challenge is headed by the Willie Mullins trained Capodanno. Progressive over hurdles last spring. A winner at Naas on his chase debut he then ran Bob Olinger to 4 ¾ lengths in a Garde 3 at Punchestown. Only got as far as the fifth when unseating his rider in a Grade 1 won by stablemate Galopin Des Champs last time. That’s not an ideal preparation for this but the step up to 3m over fences can bring out more improvement in him as it did over hurdles.
Mullins also saddles Gaillard Du Mesnil who was 2 length third behind Capodanno on their chase debuts at Naas. The 6-year-old has improved with each of his three starts over fences and last time stayed on to take third behind Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown. He finished one place ahead of Bravemansgame in last season’s Ballymore and shaped at Leopardstown like a step up to 3m will suit.
Beacon Edge a useful staying hurdler, won the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase earlier in the season. He fell at the sixth in the race won by Galopin Des Champs two starts back. But his confidence was restored when he finished a ¾-length 2nd of 4 in Grade 2 at Navan 22-days ago. He’s got solid each way claims if his jumping holds up in this bigger field for yard in good form.
Verdict: This looks a competitive race and I want to take on Bravemansgame here. If Ahoy Senor can get into a good jumping rhythm then he can go close. Of the Irish contenders Beacon Edge could be a bit of each way value ahead of Capodanno.
2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f
Thirteen of the last 14 winners of the race had nine or less starts over hurdles. A recent win also looks a useful guide with 11 of the last 14 winners having won a race on their last three starts.
Grand Roi was sent off 6/1 favourite for this race 12 months ago. Could only finish a 15-length 12th of 26 but he was hampered between the third and second last that day and couldn’t recover. Just three starts this season for the 6-year-old and it was a decent effort when 4th of 9 in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan last month. The first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition and a big run could be forthcoming.
Fastorslow is another interesting Irish contender. The 6-year-old is unexposed over hurdles at this trip and hasn’t shaped badly on either start this season over shorter. It will be interesting to see if any money arrives for him before the off.
Drop The Anchor, I put up at 16/1 ante post for the race after his 5th of 27 at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s now almost half those odds. There was plenty to like about the way he finished his race off when a 3 ½ length 7th of 25 to Belfast Banter in last season’s County Hurdle, off 3lb higher.
The Shunter won the Paddy Power Plate over fences here 12 months ago and has a 7lb lower mark over hurdles to exploit. The 9-year-old also won the Greatwood Hurdle here last season so the course holds no terrors for him.
Unexpected Party has a nice progressive profile for the race. The Dan Skelton trained 7-year-old has improved with each of his five starts this season and posted a career best on RPR’s when comfortably beating ten rivals at Ascot last time. A strong traveller, he produced a good change of gear to win at Ascot. Looks the type to be suited by a strongly run big-field handicap. Granted he’s been hiked up 12lb for his latest success but there could be more to come from him.
Camprond needs a sound surface to be seen at his best. He won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow back in October and easily dispatched two rivals here later that month. Finished a good 6 length 4th of 19 to West Cork in Greatwood Hurdle last time. The return to 2m 4f is a plus but he does need his ground.
Verdict: I have six on my shortlist and I still may not have found one that will finish in the places. Drop The Anchor is already in the portfolio. On good ground Camprond is in the mix. The Shunter goes well around here and is big contenders as is the progressive Unexpected Party.
3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m
The rematch between Shiskhin and Energumene with Chacun Pour Soi added to the mix. If the latter could transfer his high-class Irish form to Cheltenham, he would have a big chance but I don’t think he will.
I think it’s between the big two in the betting. His winning form here gives Shishkin the edge. However, there is just 1 length between the pair on their Ascot running and the 3/1 available about Energumene makes him the value play here.
Put The Kettle and Nube Negra were first and second in last year’s race. The latter has solid each way claims again and won’t be concerned about good ground either. Whilst the latter can never be ruled out on her favourite track, four wins here including at the last two festivals, her form this season has been dire which is why she’s around 25/1. The application of the first time cheekpieces really need to revive her. Her stablemate Envoi Allen could be well suited by a strongly run 2m and has had wind surgery since his last run. A smart horse over hurdles, won the Ballymore and the Champion Bumper at previous festivals.
Verdict: The most likely winner is Shishkin but Energumene is a bit of value at around 3/1. For those looking for one at bigger odds each way then the De Bromhead pair of Put The Kettle On and Envoi Allen could get in to the places.
4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) – 3m 6f
All eyes on favourite Tiger Roll who bids for a fourth success in the race and could well be retired should he win today.
Looking at the fate of favourites and second favourites in the Cross-Country race.
Favourites are 2 winners from 14 bets 14% -8.87 8 placed 57%.
Meanwhile second favourites are 6 winners from 14 bets 43% +15 11 placed 79%. For those backing the second favourite each way in the race the profit was +23.68.
Stablemate Delta Work looks Tiger Roll’s main opponent on official ratings and he makes his Cross-Country debut here. However, he’ll need the new discipline to spark a revival in form because he’s looked regressive on his last two starts over regulation fences.
Ex French trained cross-country winner Prengarde was an expensive purchase for owner J P McManus. Now with Enda Bolger the 6-year-old will surely win races in the sphere and must be respected. As does Easyland who beat Tiger Roll in the 2020 renewal, runner-up 12 months ago. The latter doesn’t have the scope for improvement that Prengarde has but he’s surely better than he has been able to show on two hurdle starts since joining the Jonjo O’Neill yard.
Verdict: Give the record of second favorites in the race I would be interested Prengarde here if he was to go off second in the betting.
4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m
Eleven of the past 12 winners of the Grand Annual have had an official rating between 138 and 152.
Last year’s winner Sky Pirate will like the return to a strongly run big field scenario. However, you must go back to 1959 for the last horse to retain their crown.
Andy Dufresne has been popular in the ante post market and the 6-year-old back to best when 4 ¾ lengths 2nd of 6 to Captain Guinness in a Naas Grade 3 back in November. He’s got a 130-day layoff to overcome but he’s won three times off an even longer break so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. He races off a mark off 155 but must be high on the shortlist. His stablemate Buddy Rich has been laid out for the race, the better ground will suit him and he gives trainer Gordon Elliott a strong hand in the race.
Embittered finished third in the 2020 County Hurdle and was sent off the 9/2 favourite for this race last year but he fell when making headway at the 9th that day. He’s likely been laid out for the race again and will like the drying ground.
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner twice since 2016. He has a couple of live contenders in Il Ridoto & Thyme White. The former looked a smart 2m handicap chaser when bolting up at Newbury in November. He got stuck in the mud at Lingfield last time but I don’t think we have seen the best of the 5-year-old over fences yet and he could be suited by the pace of a big field handicap. Thyme White won a novices’ handicap chase at Doncaster 77-days ago. He’s been raised 8lb for that success but looked well a head of his mark that day. However, he’s only had three starts over fences so does lack experience.
Amarillo Sky has a likeable upwardly progressive profile. He made it 2-5 over fences when jumping well to beat six rivals at Newbury 24-days ago. The going was testing when he won at Newbury but he has plenty of form on a sounder surface too.
Before Midnight was in excellent form in the autumn winning handicap chases over C&D and at Ascot. He’s maintained that form on his last two starts and was an excellent 1 length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last time. His best form has come on a sound surface so connections will be hoping there isn’t too much rain before post time.
Gumball can be a tricky ride but he’s got some good form a round here and looked set to go close when falling two out in a C&D Grade 2 last season. Put in a solid effort under a big weight when a ½-length 2nd of 6 to Not Available in handicap at Ludlow last time. Has been dropped 1lb since and has place claims.
Verdict: Of those at the front of the betting Andy Dufresne and the progressive Amarillo Sky appeal most. Given Paul Nicholls’s record in the race his pair Il Ridoto & Thyme White are respected as is Before Midnight.
5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
Twenty-two go to post for this years and the winner’s prize is surely heading across the Irish Sea. Willie Mullins has won six of the last 14 running’s of the race and he saddles seven here including favourite Facile Vega who looked a machine when winning at Leopardstown last month. Stablemate Redemption Day looked a smart prospect when winning on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown over Christmas
Mullins is 5-23 +71 with his runners in the race returned 11/1 to 25/1. So, you can never rule out his bigger priced runners here. Off those at a bigger price James’ s Gate looked useful when winning at Punchestown on his racecourse debut, as did Madmansgame when making all to win at Navan last month.
Until Facile Vega’s Leopardstown’s win. American Mike was the ante post favourite for this. The 5-year-old has won both his start in good times and his form looks as good as the favourite. Like Facile Vega he looks an exciting prospect.
Verdict: Facile Vega could be something special and if he’s as effective on a sounder surface looks a worthy enough market leader. That said American Mike’s form is also strong and he might turn out to be the value here.
Cheltenham Betting Advice:
2:10 – 1pt win – Ahoy Senor – 7/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt each way – Beacon Edge – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
2:50 – 1pt win – The Shunter – 12/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill and 1pt win – Unexpected Party – 11/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
4:50 – 1pt win – Amarillo Sky – 17/2 @ William Hill or 8/1 @ Bet365 and 1pt win – Before Midnight – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.
Cheers
John