Hi all,
You can see why people make the analogy of children waiting for Christmas Day when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.
It seems to take an eternity to arrive and then it’s gone in a flash. Yes, It’s the final day of the Cheltenham Festival.
Friday March 13h – Cheltenham Festival – Day 4
1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
Verdict: We saw on Tuesday with Asterion Forlonge the danger of horses who jump to their right at the track. Goshen unbeaten on his three starts over hurdles has shown a tendency to jump to his right. That said I think he’s the best juvenile hurdle we have seen out this year and as long as he doesn’t do an Asterion he wins this year’s race. Solo is capable of emulating Zarkander and doing the Triumph/Adonis Double. The more the ground dries out the better his chance for me. Stablemate Sir Psycho has relished the mud, so the softer the ground the better for him and he’s got each way claims with the right underfoot conditions.
2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f
Another race which I haven’t found the winner, indeed I have struggled to find horses to place. I still like it though and can’t resist a dart or three at it.
Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls & Dan Skelton have saddled 9 of the last 12 winners of the race – 9 winners from 55 runners +113 16 placed. That’s 75% of the winners from 18% of the total runners. Mullins saddles five, Nicholls two & Skelton one.
Dan Skelton saddles Mohaayed who won this race two years ago and finished 7th, beaten 9 lengths 12 months ago. Now 11lb lower he clearly needs respecting given he’s 3 wins from 10 runs 4 placed in field sizes 16+.
Of the Mullins five, my preference is for the J P McManus pair Ciel De Neige & Saint Roi and also Buildmeupbuttercup.
Ciel De Neige, remains a maiden over hurdles but was has some excellent form in big field handicaps, was third in last years Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and finished 2nd of 24 in last month’s Betfair Hurdle. Up 4lb higher now but the softer ground should be in his favour.
Saint Roi is very unexposed for a race like this. The 5-year-old has only had two runs since switching from France. Beaten at 1/3 at Clonmel but left that form well behind when winning at Tramore 72-days ago. A mark of 137 for his handicap debut could turn out be lenient if he can over come his inexperience.
Buildmeupbuttercup has run well on both her last two starts in handicap hurdles but tends to make mistakes in crucial parts of the race as she did at the last hurdle at Leopardstown. Has the ability to win a race like this but will here jumping hold up when it matters and can her jockey produce her at just the right time.
Of the Nicholls pair Christopher Wood looks open to the most improvement after his win at Musselburgh last month but Cheltenham is a totally different track.
Gordon Elliott is 0 from 16 2 placed in this race in the past 12 years. He saddles two Thatsy & Lethal Steps. The former looks his best chance, he finished 5 ½ lengths behind Buildmeupbuttercup at Leopardstown but gets a 3lb pull here and this stiffer track should suit the 6-year-old. If it wasn’t for the trainer’s record, I would be seriously interested in him.
Verdict: Ciel De Neige, Saint Roi and the shade frustrating Buildmeupbuttercup give Willie Mullins a strong hand in the race.
1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 8/1 @ Bet365
0.5pts each way – Buildmeupbuttercup – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (Both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (Class 1) – 3m
Verdict: The best of the British look to be Thyme Hill, Harry Senior but both hail from yards whose runners have underperformed so far this week. Henry De Bromhead trained last years winner and he saddles Cobbler’s Way here. The 6-year-old looked an Albert Bartlett type when winning at Gowran Park two starts back and the finished 2nd to Latest Exhibition in the 2m 6f Grade 1 at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. He got the run of the race that day and found the winner just two strong at the finish. Latest Exhibition has some of the best form in the race and a stronger gallop here should be even more in his favour.
3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2f ½ f
Verdict: Last year’s winner Al Boum Photo has a good chance of back to back wins in jumps racings blue riband race. Delta Work has to prove his stamina for 3m 2 ½ f but he’s a double Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown on his last two starts and given he’s a 7-year-old is open to more progress. Kemboy unseated his rider at the first last year, apart from that blip he was a progressive Grade 1 chaser beating Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree and Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. I think the 8-year-old will stay the Gold Cup distance and drying ground would be in his favour. But is Cheltenham his track? Has finished behind Delta Work on both this season’s starts but did get closer to that one last time. Of the rest Chris’s Dream is improving with racing and would have an each-way chance if the ground continues to be soft. Rachel Blackmore opts for Monalee. He was only beaten a head by Delta Work in the Savills Chase at Christmas. A sound jumper, most pundits don’t think he stays beyond 3m but trainer Henry De Bromhead doesn’t agree. If the trainer is right, he does look overpriced and like stablemate Chris’s Dream has each-way claims.
1pt win – Delta Work – 5/1 @ Bet365
4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2)
Verdict: The talking horse of the festival preview circuit has been the Edna Bolger trained Staker Wallace. The 9-year-old won a point to point on his last start and is the least exposed horse in the race. Granted Derek O’Connor has opted for the J P McManus runner Minella Rocco but Jamie Codd isn’t a bad substitute.
4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f
I’m on Lisp at 20/1 and I think this race will really suit the 6-year-old. Mind you 7/1 is plenty short enough now and Alan King’s runners haven’t exactly run well here over the last few days.
Greaneteen comes into the race on the back of wins at Musseleburgh & Fakenham. I was hoping that connections would go to Aintree with the 6-year-old. Not hard to think he’s a Grade 1 chaser in the making but will Cheltenham be his track? If it is and he gets luck in the run a mark of 150 underestimates him. Chosen Mate is another lightly raced chaser, just the three starts over fences, and he impressed when winning a Gowran Park beginners’ chase 50-days ago. Looks on a competitive mark off 147 for his handicap chase debut and shouldn’t be far away. Only 2 of the last 12 winners of the race from 117 runners had won a race in their last three starts which is a bit of a stat negative for the first three mentioned horses. Of the more experienced chasers Paloma Blue looks capable of running a big race. The 8-year-old has always threatened to win a nice pot like this. Last time out he was 2nd of 15 behind one of today’s rivals Eclair De Beaufeu at Leopardstown and at the revised weights he can finish closer to that one today. Davy Russell who rode him last time is on Chosen Mate. So, make of that, what you will. Still he’s one I want onside. Eclair De Beaufeu won nicely that day and looks progressive but has a 9lb penalty to defy here and no horse since 2004 has won this after winning handicap chase that season. However, he gives the very much in form Gordon Elliott a strong hand in the race. Paloma Blue’s stablemate Jan Maat was in good form over fences in the Summer & Autumn culminating in beating three rivals in Grade 3 novice chase at Punchestown. First run for 149-days, four horses have won this off a 90+ day break, off more of a concern would be soft ground as his best form has come on a sounder surface.
Verdict: All Gordon Elliott’s runners need respecting and Chosen Mate & Eclair De Beaufeu are strong contenders. Polama Blue has the ability to land a race like this. Fingers crossed for Lisp for those of us on ante post but my confidence is dented by the form of the trainers few runners this week.
1pt win – Poloma Blue – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
1pt win – Eclair De Beaufeu – 15/2 @ Bet365
5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Well I’m on Front View (16/1) & Column Of Fire (10/1) ante post so I’m more than happy with the both of those in particular the first named who is now around 9/2 for the race and could easily go off shorter.
Front View’s owner J P McManus also has Ilikedwayurthinkin who caught the eye when 5th of 25 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Lightly raced, just the nine career starts, he looks an ideal type for the race and looks to have been trained for it. David Pipe would love to win this race named after his father but he’s 0 wins from 19 runners just 1 placed since 2009. He saddles Umbrigado this year. The 6-year-old travelled like a well handicapped horse at Haydock two starts back. The 3m trip seemed to stretch his stamina that day. He was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite for a valuable Ascot 2m handicap hurdle before Christmas. Was possibly unsuited by a combination of 2m and heavy ground that day and could only finish 6th to Not So Sleepy. This intermediate trip could be ideal and he does get the first time cheekpiece which will hopefully allow him to finish his race off better. Besides Column Of Fire, Gordon Elliott who trained the winner of this in 2017 & 2018 and had the second & third last year, also has the lightly raced The Bosses Oscar. Started the season with a win in a Thurles bumper and his form figures in hurdle races are 212. Beaten favourite last time but a stronger pace and a stiffer track should be more to his liking. Willie Mullins has won the race in 2011, 2014 & 2015 and saddles three this year. The best of his trio looks to be Five O’Clock. The 5-year-old’s form figures are 211 since joining the yard. He beat Front View by 6 lengths in a Grade 3 at Thurles last month. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights but Front View was having his first run since November that day and is likely to be a lot sharper today. However, there should be more to come from Five O’Clock and if you like Front View you have to like him too as he’s three times the favourites price.
Verdict: Front View & Column Of Fire have been well backed ante post. Their chances are clear for all to see. It would be a nice to see David Pipe win this race and he’s got a contender in Umbrigado. The Bosses Oscar & Five O’Clock represent trainers with good records in the race and are capable of better still.
1pt win – The Bosses Oscar – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Five O’Clock – 14/1 @ Coral ( Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John