Hi all,
The action switches to the New Course for the final two days of the festival. As with the previous two day’s I have had a look at all the races. Only one ante post selection running today and its Itchy Feet in the first. It looks a tough day with three big field handicaps to navigate through.
Thursday March 12th – Cheltenham Festival – Day 3
1:30 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) – 2m 4f
Itchy Feet was my ante post selection at 7/1.
Verdict: I’m happy with Itchy Feet and hopefully he can hold off the likes of Faugheen & Samcro who need no introduction. Surely Faugheen can’t roll back the clock and win another Grade 1 at Cheltenham, or can he? How will Samcro react to his recent wind op? Mister Fisher has won his last two over fences, including on soft, however, if the ground dries out, he would be an even big player.
2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m
Not a race I got involved in ante post wise but one normally I have two or three darts at.
Twenty-four go to post and you can make a good case for ten or twelve of them. The Gordon Elliott pair of Sire De Berlais & The Storyteller are big contenders. The former when this last year. He’s 7lb higher but still needs respecting. The Storyteller sneaked in to the race when finishing 6th in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas. He’s 7lb higher than at Leopardstown but remains on a competitive mark compared to his chase mark. Skandiburg didn’t look like winning when losing his place two out over C&D on New Year’s Day but he stayed on powerfully after the last to register what had looked an unlikely win. He’s 5lb higher but he’s going the right way and has a good chance of back to back C&D wins. Rapper finished runner-up that day and has a similar chance to the winner but is a lot bigger in the betting. A Great View was 6th in this race in 2018. He ran a good prep for this when 3rd of 16 in a Punchestown qualifier last month but he’s 7lb higher than he was 2-year-ago. Relegate finished one place behind in 4th and she’s been well backed ante post. Won the Champion bumper here 2-year-ago when trained by Willie Mullins. Has only had four starts over hurdles so is capable of more progress. Welsh Saint won a Haydock qualifier last month. He goes well in the mud and is only 4lb higher. However, winners of a qualifier have only won this race twice in the past 20-years which is a slight negative. Third Wind also won a series qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He’s up 4lb and is another contender. Runner-up to Third Wind was Jatiluwih who will be ridden by owner/jockey David Maxwell. If the jockey was to land this it that would be some story. And he’s got a chance on his effort at Wincanton. The 6-year-old achieved an RPR of 132 when winning a Sedgefield maiden hurdle on his seasonal reappearance, he’s improved 20lb and that progress may not have finished just yet. Tout Est Permis has solid placed form in big field handicap hurdles this season and trainer Noel Meade puts up a good 7lb conditional Eoin Walsh which puts the 7-year-old on a competitive mark. Dream Berry who put in a great effort when runner-up in a Sandown qualifier in December. That was his first start for 392-days. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but looks on a good mark based on his best form in big field handicaps, albeit from three years ago. He goes well fresh so another 96-day absence shouldn’t be an inconvenience and trainer Jonjo O’Neill has saddled winners of the race in 2003, 04 & 12.
Verdict: The Gordon Elliott pair Sire De Berlais & The Storyteller have to be high on the shortlist. Dream Berry has the look of a plot for a trainer who has won this race three times since 2003. No doubt A Great View will win as I’m not putting up him up today. Relegate looks on a competitive mark but may find herself too far behind. Skandiberg & Rapper were first or second over C&D in January. I like Skandiberg a lot but Rapper is twice his price and they are weighted to run the same race.
1pt win – Sire De Berlais – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – The Storyteller – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
0.5pts each way – Rapper – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f
Another race where I don’t have ante post interest.
Verdict: A Plus Tard won the novices handicap chase here 12 months ago and last time out beat Chacun Pour Soi in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Frodon & Aso finished first and second in this race last year. The first named won a Grade 2 at Kempton last time and that will have set him up for a track that he goes so well at. Aso hasn’t been at his best on his three starts this season but this will have been the target all season. He gets the first time blinkers and always needs respecting over C&D. Min, who finished runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing Festival and is better over this trip, 4 wins from 5 runs 5 placed at 2m 4f. Add in Riders Onthe Storm who had a hard race when winning a Grade 2 at Ascot last month and you have the makings of another cracker of a race.
3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
Can anyone beat Paisley Park? He’s rightly the odds-on favourite for Thursday’s Stayers Hurdle. There is, however, a good each way bet in the race and its Irish raider Ronald Pump.
Ronald Pump was a highly progressive handicap hurdler last season. He’s been mixing it over fences and hurdles this season and it’s his 2nd of 25 in a valuable Leopardstown handicap hurdle over Christmas that interest’s me when he was trying to concede 29lb to the improving Treacysenniscorthy that day. That form is similar to what the likes of Summerville Boy & Emitom have achieved and they are half his odds in the betting.
You could back him in the market without Paisley Park or each way. I think he’s the each-way value of the race.
0.5pts each way – Ronald Pump – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)
4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f
Twenty-four handicap chasers are set to meet the starter for an interesting handicap chase.
Simply The Betts won over C&D on Trial’s Day, the runner-up Imperial Aura gave the form a boost when winning here on Tuesday. He’s 9lb higher in the weights but he’s young chaser very much on the upgrade and looks a worthy favourite. Ben Dundee was third to A Plus Tard here 12 months ago. He made a good return action. putting in a career best effort on RPR’s when 2nd of 12 at Navan in December. Will have been trained for this race and trainer Gordon Elliott won this in 2018. Spiritofthegames was third in this race last year and has finished runner-up in valuable C&D handicaps on his last two starts. On the same mark as last time and can usually be relied on to run his race. Stablemate Oldgrangewood has won his last two and although he’s 5lb higher then winning over C&D on New Year’s Day can’t easily be ruled out in his hat trick bid. Siruh Du Lac won this last year off 9lb lower. Pulled up in the BetVictor Gold Cup back in November, on his sole start this season. The 7-year-old remains unexposed over fences and could easily bounce back to form here. Blazer doesn’t win very often but he’s always looked capable of winning a decent pot over fences when all the cards fall right. Finished 4th of 25 in a valuable Leopardstown handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival 39-days ago and finished 4th in the 2016 Coral Cup on his only other start at Cheltenham. Not Another Muddle, a solid 5th in last year’s Grand Annual. Has only had six starts over fences so remains capable of some more progress particularly over this trip. He’s on a competitive mark, off which he can win races, but has a 335-day absence to overcome which is tough in a hot handicap like this. Livelovelaugh ran in last year Grand National, didn’t stay and has been down the field in the Paddy Power & Thyestes. This is more the 10-year-old’s trip, last season his two best performances came in handicap chases over 2m 4f /2m 5f. You could see him getting into the places at big odds.
Verdict: Simply The Betts is an improving young chaser goes well here and can win again. All Gordon Elliott’s horses are going well so expect the nicely handicapped Ben Dundee to go close if his jumping doesn’t let him down. Not the most exciting of selections but they will do for me.
2pt win – Simply The Betts – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
1pt win – Ben Dundee – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:50 – Daylesford Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run) – 2m 1f
Verdict: Minellla Melody is 3 from 3 over hurdles. She’s tough and only seems to do enough to win and looks capable of better. May find this on the short side but looks the one they all have to beat. Colreevy was runner-up to Minella Melody at Fairyhouse she can go well again but won’t find it easy to reverse placing with the winner here. Dolcita finished third she’s only had the four career starts so could be open to more improvement for Willie Mullins and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was to finish ahead of stablemate Colreevy this time. Floressa trained by Nicky Henderson looks the best of the home team and she impressed when winning a listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Newbury in November. She wasn’t suited by the pace of the race and was hampered on the run in when third to Lady Buttons at Doncaster 47-days ago. Best form so far has come on good to soft so connections will be hoping the course dries out. This has been the plan and she looks to have a good chance if the ground isn’t too testing.
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f
I managed to find the winner of this race last year. Can lightning strike twice? This looks a fiendishly tough puzzle to solve.
Le Breuil won the National Hunt Chase here 12 months ago. Not in the same form on his first two starts this season but ran better when 5th to Kimberlite County in the Classic Chase, just one place behind Tuesday’s winner The Conditional, and has Jamie Codd back in the saddle. Deise Aba is 7lb higher then when winning at Sandown but the 7-year-old looks progressive and has only had four starts over fences. Capable of better but needs to jump a bit better than he did at Sandown. Bob Mahler represents the trainer/jockey combination that won this race in 2018. The 8-year-old got up in the final strides to win the 4m 1f Edinburgh National on his last start. He’s a real staying type and the first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces. This has always been a target race and if the ground dries out, his chance would be enhanced. Derek O’Connor is on board the lightly raced Champagne Platinum who was third to Itchy Feet in a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Sandown last time. Big step up in trip here and hasn’t always convinced with his jumping so far. Potentially very well handicapped after just three starts over fences and six career starts under rules. Owner J P McManus also has Fitzhenry. The 8-year-old has been running consistently well in big field handicap chases over in Ireland this season. Runner-up in the Paddy Power & The Troytown. He had just creeped into contention when badly hampered by a faller at the last fence jumped in a 2m 5f handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival last time. He’s just 1lb higher now and deserves to win a good pot. Fingerontheswitch had been in the form of his life and was good second in the Sky Bet Chase last time. Up a further 7lb and he’s another who probably need the ground to dry out though. Kilfilum Cross is 1lb lower than when runner-up in this race 12 months ago. He bounced back to form when runner-up at Kempton last time, shouldn’t be far away again and looks on a good handicap mark. Plan Of Attack has just had the four starts over fences, winning two of them, and finished one place behind Fitzhenry in the Paddy Power on his last start. A 78-day absence shouldn’t be a problem as he’s won at Aintree in October off an even longer lay off. Now 5lb higher than in the Paddy Power but he remains open to further improvement over fences.
Verdict: I think this is the most competitive race of day three. Last year’s runner-up Kilfilum Cross is handicapped to go one better but this year’s renewal looks tougher. Fitzhenry has a handicap chase like this in him. Plan Of Attack could be capable of more progress and can’t be easily dismissed either.
1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 12/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Fitzhenry – 12/1 @ Bet365
1pt win – Plan Of Attack – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John