Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

As promised, here’s another Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting preview. This my first dip into Handicap races at the Festival with ante post selections for the Coral Cup & Grand Annual Handicap Chase.

It’s worth noting that these selections are for races where the weights have yet to be published. There are two selections for each of the races.

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections:

Wednesday March 11th

Coral Cup

Here are my two ante post selections the Coral Cup a handicap hurdle run over 2m 4f and is traditionally one of the most competitive races at the Cheltenham Festival. Last year’s renewal was won by the Nicky Henderson-trained William Henry.

I have already mentioned my first selection Alfa Mix in this week’s eyecatchers article. I don’t know if the race will be the 5-year-old’s target or not. But he does look an ideal type for the race and one that I want to have onside.

The other horse I like for the race, ran on Cheltenham Trials Day and it’s the Dan Skelton trained Protektorat. Like Alfa Mix I don’t know if this will be the horses target at the Festival but he’s another I like, and should he take his place in the line-up will be a lot shorter in the betting.

The 5-year-old caught the eyes of plenty, after his third placed effort behind Harry Senior in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and indeed was a Racing Post Eyecatcher: “Ran with credit conceding weight all round. He’s long looked a Coral Cup type”

The step up to 2m 4 ½ f has brought improvement in the gelding who won a Cheltenham Listed novice hurdle on New Year’s Day. He ran a remarkable race on Saturday having been keen for much of the race and did well to finish as close as he did at the finish.

The big field of Coral Cup should be perfect for him as he can be dropped in and get some cover before being unleashed for a strong late finish. He’s a novice which means he could go for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle but I’m hoping connections will opt for the Coral Cup.

Sadly the 20/1 still available On Monday has now gone but he still rates value bet at around 14/1 for a trainer who can prepare a handicap hurdler for the Festival.

1pt each way- Alfa Mix – 33/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds) & William Hill (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Protektorat – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) & William Hill (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

Friday March 13th

Grand Annual Handicap Chase

The Grand Annual Chase used to be the final race of the Cheltenham Festival but due to safety concerns it’s now the penultimate race of the Cheltenham Festival. Run over 2m ½ f last year’s race was won by outsider 66/1 Croco Bay.

As with the previous race I have already mentioned one my selections for the race in this week’s eyecatchers article. The horse in question is the Alan King trained Lisp. The 6-year-old is now qualified to run in the Grand Annual and it’s a race which Lisp looks ideal for as long as the handicapper gives him a competitive weight.  

The other I like, is a previous eyecatcher of mine and it’s the Paul Nicholls trained Brelan D’As. Third in last years race. I have had the 9-year-old in mind for this race since he was beaten a neck by Happy Diva in the BetVictor Gold Cup back in November.

He could only finish 8^th of 13 behind the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on his next start. However, he was still in contention when stumbling three out. It was a race ending mistake. He wasn’t subjected to hard ride after that mistake and finished in his own time.

Seems at his best on soft ground which is a slight concern, was good to soft last year, but he’s got the ability to win a decent pot when all the cards fall right and I fully expect that Paul Nicholls will have trained him for this race.

1pt each way – Brelan D’As – 20/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Lisp – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

I have now got eight horses in my Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio. This weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival is likely to see plenty more horses shorten or lengthen for their respective races. I will probably have most of my ante post bets in place in the next two weeks which means there is likely to be at most two remaining ante post articles.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As I was away last week there wasn’t a weekly notebook but in all truth we didn’t miss much on the eyecatchers front.

All eyes across the Irish Sea this weekend with the latest running of the two-day Dublin Festival at Leopardstown. Fingers crossed that the fixture isn’t blighted by quickening ground that led to whole raft of non-runners on the Sunday card. There has been selective watering of the track recently which should hopefully mitigate the problem this year.

This side of the Irish Sea there’s also quality racing action on Saturday.

Sandown hosts a seven-race card which includes the Grade 1 Betway Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase and some competitive looking handicaps.

There’s a Grade 2 novices chase at Wetherby and Lingfield play hosts to a couple of Listed races on its all-weather card.  

Finally, Musselburgh plays host to it’s Cheltenham Trials Weekend, with a two-day fixture. The big races on its Saturday card are two Class 2 handicaps, the Scottish County Hurdle and the 4m 1f Edinburgh National and both races are being covered by ITV Racing.

It’s going to be the biggest betting weekend of 2020 for me and I can’t wait for all the action to begin.

Before all that let’s take brief look back some of the last week’s racing and a few horse’s worth adding to your trackers. My first horse tracker horse comes from the previous weeks action.

Saturday January 18^th

Navan

Alfa Mix – Gavin Cromwell

Kilfenora produced a good performance to win his second successive Graded handicap hurdle when landing the Grade B 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Navan. The 8-year-old will probably be forced out of handicap company after this success. He should continue to hold his own in better races.

The first two pulled well clear of the rest of the field and the one with future in mind could be the second Alfa Mix, a winner of C&D handicap hurdle on his previous start was the only one to give the winner a race. The 5-year-old is now 2 wins from 6 runs since going handicapping and remains one to keep on side. The handicapper has raised him just 6lb for this effort which doesn’t look harsh. It will be interesting to see what the English handicapper gives him for the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival as I think that could be an ideal target for him.

Saturday January 25^th

Cheltenham

It was Cheltenham Trials Day on Saturday and there were some good performances and a handful of eyecatchers.

Paisley Park is on course to retain his Stayers Hurdle crown at the Cheltenham Festival after a decisive success in the Cleeve Hurdle. Saturday win means he’s now 5 from 5 when racing beyond 3m.

Can anything beat him in March?  Well, if Benie Des Dieux  was to run she would make the race interesting but her trainer is more likely to aim here at the Mares Hurdle again. However, If Paisley Park turns up in the same condition, he was on Saturday he will win the Stayer Hurdle. It’s as simple as that.

Santini divides opinion,doesn’t he.He hadn’t impressed when only scrambling home on his seasonal return at Sandown back in November. Not seen out since that run. He’s had a wind-op in the meantime and that seems to have had the desired effect as he ran out a game winner of Saturday’s Cotswold Chase.

It was a career best effort from the 8-year-old who was given a Racing Post Rating of 173 after this win. Now the 8-year-old does carry plenty of condition so he could be even fitter in March and could improve further. He goes well at the track and handles the unique Cheltenham Festival atmosphere. He did seem to have a hard race on Saturday so let’s just hope it doesn’t have an impact on him come March.

Hot Race: Timeform Novices Handicap Chase

I mentioned in Monday Daily Punt column that the 2m 4 ½ f novices handicap chase on Trials Day is a race where the form can be followed next time out.

Looking at the last 22 running’s of the race.  If you had backed the first three home in the race on their next start you would have made £18.87 to a £1 level stake. Those that ran in a Grade 3 or Listed race on their next start produced – 5 winners from 15 runners +23.25 8 placed.

Three horses from this race have gone onto win the Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival. Which means the likes Simply The Betts, Imperial Aura and even 5th placed Champagne Court can’t be ruled out here back in March.

Note Lalor When He Gets Better Ground

Unlike the novices’ handicap chase earlier on in the card this hasn’t been a race that has produced much in the way of next time out profit. If you had backed all the 66 horses that had finished in the first three on their next run, you would have lost £25.75 to a £1 level stake.

The only serious profitable angle would be to back the winner on their next start if racing in Grade 3 company – 3 winners from 8 runners +11.50 4 placed.

There was a good finish to this year’s race with Cepage battling on well to hold of Spiritofthegames & Lalor on the run in.

Those stats would make Cepage of interest if his next start was in the Festival Plate or even more so the Grade 3 handicap chase at Kempton at the end of February.

No doubt the likes of Spiritofthegames & Lalor will be back for the Festival Plate. The last named backed up a good effort here on New Year’s Day, not something he’s always done in the past, and would be worth noting on a sounder surface that he got on Saturday. He’s retains the ability to win a decent handicap pot either at Cheltenham or Aintree if gets his favoured underfoot conditions.

The Twisler – Neil Mulholland

My Cheltenham Trials eyecatcher ran in the handicap hurdle that concluded card.  The Twisler holds no secrets from the handicapper but he ran much better than his final position of 5^th suggests. The 8-year-old who wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to Gunnery at Doncaster on his previous start.

Upped to Class 2 company here he was still bang in contention coming to the last before weakening on the run in.

Given the ground would have been plenty soft enough for him it was a good effort in the circumstances. His best two RPR’s have come on a sounder surface and it’s worth noting he’s now 1lb below last season’s winning mark. A drop back in Class and a sounder surface can see him back into the winner’s enclosure.

Doncaster

The standout performance of Doncaster’s Saturday card which I attended came from Mister Fisher, many Doncaster racegoers will probably say Lady Buttons, who made 2 wins from 3 starts since going chasing when beating a small but select field in the Grade 2 Lightning Novice Chase. Mister Fisher who had won a 2m 4 ½ f novice chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting wasn’t troubled with the drop back to 2m ½ f.

He certainly appreciated the drying ground here and he now has the option of the Arkle and the longer Marsh Chase at Festival. He will be strong contender for whichever race he goes for although his winning chance may depend on the ground.

Lisp, trained by Alan King, a useful big field 2m handicap hurdler wasn’t beaten far into third. The 6-year-old probably doesn’t have the class for an Arkle Novices Chase, but the Plumpton novice winner has now qualified for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Festival and he would be suited by the big field scenario that race normally attracts.

O K Corral so disappointing on his two starts this season took Doncaster’s feature race the Sky Bet Handicap Chase. Travelling well through the race he had a enough left in the tank to hold off the inform Fingeronthswitch after the last.

His improved from was put down to the 10-year-old returning to a flatter track. Credit should also go to top Irish Amateur jockey Derek O’Connor who seems to get on well with the horse.

Whether he can back up this effort is the big unknown. He won’t be going to Cheltenham, but connections are contemplating a tilt at the Grand National. He doesn’t scream an Aintree horse to me but he’s a contender if he did go for the race.

Chidswell – Nicky Richards

The horse for the tracker from the Sky Bet Chase could be Chidswell. The 11-year-old appreciated the drying ground he got on Saturday. He’s got plenty of ability but just makes too many silly mistakes in his race as he did again on Saturday. He finished a well beaten third but made a bad error two out but for that mistake would have finished a bit closer to the front two at the line.

Twice a winner early last season including over 3m 2f at Doncaster last March, off 5lb lower. He remains on a competitive mark. He can win a race with a better round of jumping and in slightly less demanding company than he faced on Saturday. The Doncaster race he won last year could well be on his agenda again.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A rare midweek selection from Down Royal.

Down Royal

3:50 – Eleven have been declared to go to post for this 0 – 123 handicap chase.

Henry De Bromhead is among the winners in the past 14-days and his record at Down Royal with runners having their first run at Down Royal is a healthy – 14 winners from 44 runners 32% +41.76 A/E 1.58 21 placed 48%.

He saddles former hurdle winner Aherlow in this 3m handicap chase. The 8-year-old has yet to win over fences after 8 attempts but has placed on four occasions, He finished third at Gowran Park in October before putting a career best effort over the larger obstacles when 3^rd of 16 in the 3m 4f Cork Grand National two starts back. Not so good when pulling up in a valuable handicap chase at Fairyhouse 58-days ago. A reproduction of his Cork effort would see him go close in this less demanding company.

1pt each way – Aherlow – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No selections today and it doesn’t look like it will be a busy week on the betting front at least until the weekend.

I will post up an eyecatchers article over the next couple of days and there could also be another ante post article so keep an eye on your inbox’s.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good win for Simply The Betts gave us a small profit on the day to advised early pricesbut I’m a bit frustrated that I let Sky Bet Handicap Chase winner O K Corral go unbacked.

Not the best of Sunday’s from a betting perspective with the best meeting either side of the Irish Sea being at Naas. The two handicaps on the Naas card both look tricky puzzles to solve.

Naas

3:10 – Seventeenhurdles are set to go to post for what looks a competitive 2m handicap hurdle.

Like An Open Book doesn’t win very often 2 wins from 27 runs over hurdles but the mare was travelling as well as anything and in the process of going close when falling two out at Thurles last Sunday. If her confidence hasn’t been dented by that fall, she’s capable of going close here on drying ground that will suit.

Morning Skye a winner on the flat when trained in Britain by Hugo Palmer has yet to win on his seven starts over hurdles but ran some good races in maiden company last year for previous trainer Dennis Hogan. Returned from a 101-day absence to finish a respectable 3^rd of 16 at Thurles on first start for Peter Fahey back in November. Up 3lb but if he reproduces his Thurles run on this stiffer track he shouldn’t be far away.

Trainer Martin Brassil trained last year’s winner and he’s represented by handicap hurdle debutant A Different World. The 5-year-old has shown promise on his three starts in maiden company and wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 23 to the useful Captain Guinness at Navan last month. Looks a workable mark off 102 and could be a different proposition now going handicapping.

Verdict: A slight preference for Morning Skye but I wouldn’t put you off Like An Open Book or A Different World if you fancy either of them.

1pt win – Morning Skye – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Cheltenham Trials day on Saturday and there’s also a seven-race card at Doncaster where the feature race is the Sky Bet Handicap Chase.

Let’s begin this Saturday betting preview at Doncaster and the Sky Bet Chase.

Doncaster

3:15 – Alan King won the race in 2016 & 2017 with Ziga Boy has three entries: Dingo Dollar, Azzerti & Good Man Pat. The first named was 6th when 3/1 favourite for last year’s race. He should do better this time around if he can get uncontested lead.  Azzerti could improve for the step up to 3m especially if the ground dries out this week.

Sue Smith won the race in 2018 and could saddle recent Haydock winner Ravenhill Road.  That was the 9-year-old’s first win over fences, and hopefully he’s got his career back on track. Up 6lb for that win, isn’t too excessive as he the potential for further improvement, if he stays 3m. This would be much harder than last time, but he can’t be dismissed.

Calipto was third in this race before going onto win a listed handicap chase at Ascot off 3lb lower. A reproduction of his Ascot run would put the 10-year-old very much into contention.

Nicky Henderson saddles Burbank & O K Corral. Burbank made it 2 wins from 5 runs when winning at Newbury 28-days ago. That win came over 2m 6 ½ f but he looks capable of staying 3m on the evidence of that run. Up 11lb makes life more difficult for the 8-year-old but he remains on an upward curve which is a positive. O K Corral a smart novice although he did pull up in the 4m at the Cheltenham Festival. Well beaten, although well backed (9/1), in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on his seasonal return. Didn’t run well when dropped back to 2m 4 ½ f in a hot handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day although to be fair he was hampered at the 12^th that day. Can’t be ruled out here but has questions to answer.

Quarenta returned from a short break to beat two rivals at Fontwell last month before running just as well in defeat when beaten just a head into second at Kempton 29-days ago. Did well to get as close as he did as he made a mistake two out and was a slightly squeezed for room coming to the last. Ran on well on the run in and looked a shade unlucky. Up 4lb but today’s stiffer 3m should suit the 8-year-old.

Verdict: O K Corral is probably still better than his mark. Alan King has a strong hand in the race and his three can go well. But slight preference goes to the inform Quarenta who looked a shade unlucky at Kempton last time.

1pt win – Quarenta – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheltenham

1:15 – Twelve have been declared for what is normally an informative novices handicap chase. Simply The Betts & On The Slopes were second and third in a decent novices handicap chase at Kempton over Christmas. It’s a race where the form can usually be relied on to produce plenty of winner. Indeed, the first three home in the Kempton race running between 16 to 30-days after that race have produced 6 winners from 12 runners +10.10 8 placed. You can expect good runs from both horses and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but preference is for Simply The Betts who wasn’t suited by going right handed at Kempton and remains a novice chaser open to more progress.

Champagne Court made it 2 wins from 2 runs since switching to fences when making all to win at Plumpton 68-days ago. A useful novice hurdler last season finishing 4^th of 24 in last seasons Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The 7-year-old gets the first-time tongue tie and is 5lb higher than at Plumpton today but is a novice chaser worth keeping on side.

Last time out winners Mercy Mercy Me & Cloudy Glen are capable of more improvement over fences as his handicap debutant Imperial Aura who was runner-up to Pym here in a novice chase at the December Meeting.

Verdict: I can’t leave out Simply The Betts and Champagne Court shouldn’t be far away in his hat trick bid.

1pt win – Simply The Betts – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Champagne Court – 6/1 @ Bet365

1:50 – A field of ten runners are declared to go post for this handicap chase over the same distance as the novice handicap chase.

Warthog won the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D back in December he heads the ante post market. He’s up 4lb for that success but remain on a competitive mark here.

Spiritofthegames was a head behind Warthog and gets a 1lb from the winner here and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.

Lalor is up 4lb after bouncing back to form when beaten just a short head by Oldgrangewood over C&D on New Year’s Day. Handled soft ground well enough that day but won’t be inconvenienced should the dry out further. Has run some good races here over fences and shouldn’t be far away at the finish.

Count Meribel is another who has won over fences at Cheltenham. The 8-year-old was runner-up to Lostintranslation on his seasonal return at Carlisle. Hard a hard race that day and didn’t seem to run to form when only 6^th of 17 to Happy Diva in the BetVictor Gold Cup back in November. First run for 70-days but has won twice off longer absences in the past and maybe better when fresh.

Cepage is handicapped up to his best but the top weight has run some of best his races at Cheltenham and was a 2 ¾ length 4^th behind Warthog in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and is 5lb better off with him today. Disappointed behind Oldgrangewood and Lalor on New Year’s Day but if he bounces back to his best can’t be ruled out on a track that suits.

Verdict: It’s a tough call between Warthog & Spiritofthegames with slight preference for the former. Lalor shouldn’t be far away if reproducing his last effort and Count Meribel is better fresh.

1pt win – Lalor – 6/1 @ Coral

1pt win – Count Meribel – 8/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Ten runner are set to go to post for this 2m 1f handicap hurdle that concludes Cheltenham Trials Day.

Lust For Glory didn’t seem to take to fences at Doncaster on her last start and pulled to hard here two starts back over hurdles. The mare must be respected on her two length, second behind No So Sleepy at Ascot on her seasonal return at Ascot in November. A reproduction of that run would see her go close here.

The Twisler put in his best performance for some time when 2^nd of 11 to Gunnery at Doncaster 27-days ago. He’s 1lb below his last winning mark and has each way claims but maybe more effective on a sounder surface.

We Run The Night is an intriguing contender. The 5-year-old won over fences on his last start when trained in France and his having his first start for Ben Pauling today.  It’s hard to way weigh up his French form but he’s lightly raced and open to improvement.

Sofia’s Rock was runner-up at Huntingdon on his last start 74-days ago. The 6-year-old races off the same mark today and is another contender as is Ainchea who returned from a 700-day absence at Sandown recently. The 7-year-old should be sharper for that run and given he’s only had four starts over hurdles he could be capable of further progress.

1pt win – Lust For Glory – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As promised, here’s my preview of Thursday’s Thyestes Handicap Chase. It’s a race I really like although I don’t think I have ever found the winner.

Thursday January 23^rd

Gowran Park

3:00 – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m 1f

One of the best Handicap Chases of the season, and as ever this valuable race has attracted a strong field of entries with €59,000 on offer to the winner.

As you would expect plenty standout at the five-day stage. Here are my thoughts on a few of the leading fancies and a couple of lively each way contenders.

Chief Des Obeaux, trained by Willie Mullins, looks likely to head the betting on the strength of his 5^th of 27 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown. Just the two starts since switching to the stable and is open to more improvement. Needs to jump better than he did last time, made a mistake three out when in the lead. Acts on soft. Quite short at 8/1 for a competitive race like this but could go off even shorter.

Smoking Gun lacks experience over fences -1 win from 3 runs – but showed he jumps and stays well when winning a 3m 1f beginners chase at Punchestown 23-days ago. That win came on yielding ground so heavy will provide a different test for the 7-year-old. A winner here over hurdles he looks capable of being competitive in staying handicap chases this season and could be an Irish Grand National horse. Has been backed ante post for this and shouldn’t be far away.

Castlebrook, is a young staying chaser who I really liked for this, but news came through yesterday that he’s now out for the season.

Ex Patriot went into the notebook after a good effort when close-up 4^th of 12 to Oldgrangewood at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. I had him down as ideal type for drop back to strongly run 2m in a race like the Grand Annual at Cheltenham so interesting to see him so well fancied in the ante post betting for this race stepped up to 3m 1f. A winner at the track over fences back in March at 2m 2f. Stamina very much to prove but the 7-year-old has only had two goes over further than 2m 4 ½ f. Has the ability to win a decent handicap this season.

Discorama, put in a great effort over fences when runner-up in last year’s 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Made an encouraging seasonal return when runner-up to Champagne Classic at Wexford in October. Expected to go well (8/1) in the Troytown Handicap at Navan on his next start but could only finish 8^th of 23.  Ran even worse back over hurdles at Limerick last time. Has the ability to win a race like this when back to form but questions to answer after two low-key performances.

Solomn Grundy doesn’t win very often but he has run some good races in valuable big field handicaps chases. Made a bad mistake at the 10^th in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase, his rider was lucky to stay in the saddle. He managed to work his back into the race and was second after four out. Ultimately weakened out of it two out and ended up finishing 7^th. In the circumstances it was a better run than his final position suggests. Has the ability to get into the places with a decent round of jumping.

Another couple of Mullins trained horses with each way claims:

Acapella Bourgeois, beat Road to Respect as a novice back in early 2017. He hasn’t reached the high levels that could have been expected after that success but showed what he was capable of when 3^rd of 30 in last years Irish Grand National off 2lb lower. No show over hurdles on his return to action but ran better returned to fences when runner-up to Al Boum Photo at Tramore 22-days ago. That was step back in the right direction from the 10-year-old. If he runs, he will carry top-weight which wouldn’t necessarily be a negative as three of the last 11 winners of the race carried top weight to victory.

Total Recall, probably not as good as he used to be, and the 11-year-old hasn’t won since landing a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival nearly two years ago. Won the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury in 2017 off 2lb lower. Showed last year that he retains ability when runner-up to subsequent Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo at Tramore 12 months ago. Had a pipe opener over hurdles at Clonmel last month and is on a decent enough mark for a return to the larger obstacles.

Verdict: Any Willie Mullins runners must be respected as he’s trained four of the last ten winners of the race. That brings the likes of Chief Des Obeaux and Acapella Bourgeois very much into the mix. Ex Patriot is a consistent chaser who goes well at the track and has the ability win this if his stamina holds out. Smoking Gun is a potential improver now going handicapping. Whilst Solomn Grundy has each way claims, if he jumps better.  With Castlebrook now out it’s the Mullins pair Chief Des Obeaux and Acapella Bourgeois but should one of them not go to post I wouldn’t put anyone off Ex Patriot.

1pt win – Chief Des Obeaux – 7/1 Gen

1pt win – Acapella Bourgeois – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Ex Patriot – 14/1 @ Sky Bet & BetVictor

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m away in North Wales for most of the week. Which means these are my last selections until Saturday and there won’t be a tracker horses update this week.

However, I have had a look at Thursday’s Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase from ante post perspective and my betting preview and selections for that race will be out on Monday morning.

Not a brilliant Saturday for the selections although Defi De Seuil’s win in the Clarence House Chase means he’s now a best priced 2/1 for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. That 10/1 ante post bet is looking better by the day.

It’s not great racing today. However, I have selections from Thurles, if it survives a precautionary early morning inspection due to the possibility of overnight frost.  Hopefully we can end the weekend with a profit.

Thurles

2:10 – Two horses interest me in this 2m handicap hurdle. One prefers a sounder surface and the other showed he relished heavy ground last time.

Polished Steel showed he was at his best on good or good to yielding going when winning over C&D and Punchestown last season. The 6-year-old is 5lb higher than for his Punchestown win. Not so good on three starts on softer ground this autumn but to be fair was still in contention when falling four at Punchestown 19-days ago. The drier the ground the better the 6-year-old’s chance.

Bajan Excell won his first race over hurdles when winning a maiden hurdle at Limerick over Christmas. He relished the heavy ground last time so it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce his form on drying ground. The 4-year-old looks interesting on his handicap hurdle debut off a mark of 118 if he can.

1pt win – Bajan Excell – 4/1 @ Paddy Power

0.5pts each way – Polished Steel – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

3:50 – It might be worth taking a chance with Call The Taxie who returns from a 666-day break.  A winner of a maiden hurdle, on heavy ground, back in February 2017. He hasn’t run over fences since pulling up in the valuable Thyestes Handicap Chase, when sent off just 9/1, two years ago. Unexposed over fences (1 win from 5 runs), if he retains any of his old ability, he’s a big contender off a mark of 128.  Granted his best form has come on soft or heavy ground and he may need further than 2m 5f these days.

Double Portrait won this race last year off 3lb lower, but Kevin Brouder takes off 3lb so he’s effectively racing off the same mark. Ground was good, 12 months ago so today’s ground will be different.

Brex Drago looked a winner in waiting when 3^rd of 15 at Leopardstown two starts back on good ground. Back in novice chase company he was on the heels of the leaders when unseating his rider three out. I doubt he would have won even if he stood up, but he could have reached the places. Better ground will suit, and he should go close with a clear round of jumping.

1pt win – Brex Drago – 6/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Call The Taxie – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Wolverhampton

3:10 – Boom The Groom’s last win came over C&D 11 months ago, off 8lb higher. Has had two starts since returning from 142-day absence and put in a good effort to finish runner-up at Lingfield over 6f 15-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise now and the drop back to 5f will be in his favour, as is his inside draw in stall one. Nudged up 2lb for his Lingfield effort but he’s still well handicapped on his best form.

1pt win – Boom The Groom – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

An intriguing Saturday with good cards at Haydock & Ascot.  The going is described as heavy at both venues to it will be make for gruelling conditions for both horses and jockeys.

The feature race at Haydock is the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase at 2:40 and is the highlight of a seven-race card at Lancashire track. At Ascot it’s Grade 1 action with the latest running of the Clarence House Chase.

Five have stood their ground for the Clarence House with Defi Du Seuil & Un De Sceaux. First & second in the Tingle Creek Chase renewing rivalry.

Fingers crossed my Champion Chase tip Defi De Seuil can win to enhance his claims for the Cheltenham Festival. He heads the ante post betting for the race just ahead of his old rival. Note of caution for favourite backers this will be his first run on heavy ground. Whilst we do know Un De Sceaux, trained by Willie Mullins, handles the going; 2 wins from 3 runs on heavy and he’s 2 wins from 2 runs at Ascot and has won this race three times (once when run at Cheltenham).

I don’t think there will be much between the pair in the betting come post time indeed you get make a case that Mullins horse should be favourite.

Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview at Haydock.

Haydock

2:40 – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f

Ten have been declared for this valuable handicap chase worth £42,713 to the winner although two runners Red Indian & Flying Angel are also declared for the 3:00 at Ascot.

Vintage Clouds ticks the key trend’s boxes I highlighted in my Monday Daily Punt column and his form figures at the course are 12222F3213. The only time he’s been out of the places was when falling three out in this race in 2017. Finished a well beaten third here last time and has yet to win on heavy – 0 wins from 8 runs but handles it. Dropped back down to his last winning mark. Given his course record he can never be ruled out and he makes plenty of each way appeal for trainer Sue Smith who has won this race twice since 2016.

Midnight Tune is another who ticks the trends boxes. The mare has been well placed to win her last two starts over 3m & 2m 1 ½ f. Well suited to heavy ground 3 wins from 4 runs. The mare might be 2lb out of the handicap here, but the return today’s trip will be in her favour and she’s on a competitive mark off 136.

Champers On Ice, might be a 10-year-old but he’s only had four starts over fences and remains unexposed over the larger obstacles. A winner twice over hurdles in the autumn this will be his first start over fences over fences since pulling up in the 4m National Hunt Chase at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. Effective in the mud he’s an intriguing contender for David Pipe who won this race in 2010.

Two contenders who fail the 2+ runs in last 90-days trend are: Red Indian & Geronimo.

Geronimo has the profile of an improving handicap chaser looking at his RPR’s. Progressive over fences last season, you forgive his run when pulling up in the Scottish Grand National (12/1) was still in contention when making a bad mistake six out. The 9-year-old put in a career best when winning at Newcastle, last month, over a trip that would be short of his best. Up 5lb in a better race but’s open to further progress over today distance. Trainer Sandy Thomson’s horses are in winning form and tend to go under the radar in races like this. One for the betting shortlist.

Red Indian is another intriguing runner. The 8-year-old makes his seasonal return today from a 287-day absence. That shouldn’t put you off as all his three career wins have come fresh and form figures after 121+ day layoff are an impressive 13131. He relishes the mud; all three wins have come on soft and heavy going with form figures 121 on heavy. Just his second start in a handicap chase and off 10-11 looks of a nice weight with Ben Jones taking off a further 5lb. He looks too big a price here.

Definitely Red isn’t without a chance even under top weight of 11-10. The class horse of the race but he’s remains vulnerable to any progressive rivals.

Verdict: Vintage Clouds has a solid each way each way chance but I’m finding it hard to split Midnight Tune, back in handicap company today, and Red Indian & Geronimo.

1pt win – Red Indian – 10/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Midnight Tune – 13/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Geronimo – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:15 – The New One Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7 ½ f.

Just four runners stand their ground for this Champion Hurdle trial. The ante post favourite is the Nicky Henderson trained Pentland Hills but there must be significant doubts as to whether last years Triumph Hurdle winner will be at his best today on the forecast heavy ground.

At the prices it could pay to go with the Joseph O’Brien trained Darasso. The 7-year-old’s form when trained in France reads well and includes a seven-length win over the smart Janika back in November 2017. Comes into the race seeking the hat trick after win in Grade 3 & Grade 2 company when last seen in action in February/March.  

Was due to make his seasonal; reappearance in the 2m Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas but taken out as ground quickened up. His last two wins were over 2m and he relishes the mud, winning twice on heavy ground in France.

He may turn out to be better over 2m 4f and could get out speeded by todays rivals, but Ruby Walsh did put him up at 33/1 for this year’s Champion Hurdle. The 33/1 non-runner no bet is still available with Bet365 for the Champion Hurdle. If he was to win today, he would be a single figure price for Cheltenham and if he loses, he won’t run so you get your money back. That could be the way to go betting wise today.

1pt each way – Darasso 25/1 @ Bet365 for Champion Hurdle (NRNB)

Ascot

There are two handicaps worth looking at on the Ascot card.

2:25 – Matchbook Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m 3 ½ f

Sadly, the field for this valuable handicap hurdle has cut up and just eight are now set to meet the starter.

The Paul Nicholls trained Pic D’Orhy head the ante post betting. The 5-year-old had smart form in the mud when trained in France. Down the field on his sole run in Britain in last season’s Triumph Hurdle (12/1). He travelled strongly throughout the race and was still in with every chance when hitting two out. That mistake and being a shade short of race fitness, it was the gelding first run since November, ended any chance and he faded into 10th up the hill.

A faller on his sole start this season in a Grade 1 Auteuil in November. Now rated 146 over hurdles he still retains the scope to become a high-class hurdler.

Bold Plan showed a nice change of gear to win at Haydock 56-days ago. That win came on good to soft and he’s 10lb higher today. The 6-year-old remains progressive and he did win on soft at Taunton last February and finished runner-up on heavy at Uttoxeter.

Ballymoy, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, won last years race off 2lb lower. Runner-up on all three starts over fences in the autumn he reverts to hurdles today and can’t be dismissed easily given he ticks the all-important going, course & distance boxes.

Verdict: Last years winner Ballymoy has to be respected reverting back to hurdling. Bold Plan is progressive but there’s a good chance Pic D’Orhy is on a winning mark for his handicap debut.

1pt win – Pic D’Orhy – 10/3 – Gen

3:00 – Bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

The field size has held up here with eleven handicap chasers set to go post for this valuable prize. More the three quarters of the field have winning form on heavy ground which doesn’t make shortlisting strong contenders easy. Doesn’t look the strongest of race for the grade.

Espoir De Guye was an impressive winner here last month over two furlongs shorter, the handicapper has had his say putting the 6-year-old up 14lb for that success. Still he’s a young chaser very much on the upgrade who is well suited to heavy ground. Looks a worthy favourite for Venetia Williams who won the race in 2016.

Happy Diva, a previous C&D winner was third to Cyrname in this 12 months ago. The mare has since gone to win the BetVictor Handicap Chase at Cheltenham back in November and was just touched off by Lady Buttons in a mare’s listed race at Doncaster 20-days ago. Up 6lb since Cheltenham but she remains in form and trainer Kerry Lee is among the winners in the past 7-days.

Red Indian, who I mentioned for the Peter Marsh Chase would be a contender given his record fresh but is more likely to head to Haydock which is preferred race.

Domaine De L’Isle was an impressive winner at Newcastle last time. The 7-year-old is progressive, but this is a much tougher assignment, dropped back to 2m 5f. He will do well to confirm form with runner-up Sam’s Adventure who he meets on 8lb worse terms for 5 ½ lengths and that’s not considering Jack Tudor taking another 7lb off Sam’s Adventure. The latter also relishes the mud and his form figures on heavy are 121312. The 8-year-old may lack the class needed to win what looks a hot renewal but given his form on heavy and light weight he can’t be ruled out.

The same could be said about another mud lover Kayf Adventure. The 9-year-old is 3 wins from 7 runs 5 placed on heavy going. Made a promising reappearance at Bangor but didn’t seem to enjoy the National fences when pulling up in the Grand Sefton. Ran better at Chepstow last month and will appreciate the return to 2m 5f. Each way claims if at his best.

Allysson Monterg is yet another runner who goes well on heavy going -2 wins from 5 runs 4 placed – the 10-year-old is having his first start since finishing 4^th to Frodon in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase at the Cheltenham Trial’s Meeting 357-days ago.  The first time cheekpieces (retained today) seemed to suit him that day and he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark. Fitness has to be taken on trust given his long absence, but he’s won off a 456-day lay off previously. Might be better over 3m but the testing ground will bring his stamina into play. First run since wind surgery and his first run at Ascot but worth noting his form figures going right-handed are 2111 (0 from 9 the other way).  An intriguing contender who looks on a competitive handicap mark, if he’s retained his ability.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance. Espoir De Guye so impressive here last time must be high on the shortlist. Both Kayf Adventure & Sams Adventure must be respected and Allysson Monterg looks one to be interested in, if ready to go after his long layoff.

1pt win – Allysson Monterg – 15/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 7/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sadly, we lost Wincanton on Thursday, but they raced at Ludlow and Town Parks one of the gambles of the day gave us a nice profit to early advised prices.

Nothing excites me today and I will be back on Saturday.

Cheers

John