Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

A bit of treat for us today, weather permitting, with Sunday’s rescheduled Punchestown meeting hopefully passing a morning inspection.

Punchestown

4:00 – BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f

Twenty have been declared to run for this year’s renewal. Here’s what I wrote about the race on Saturday. My two selections in the race stay the same.

General Principle, trained by Gordon Elliott, has been in dreadful form since finishing third in this race 12 months ago off 11lb higher. The 2018 Irish Grand National winner, off 8lb higher, has tumbled down the weights after some poor runs but is a very well handicapped horse if reproducing last year’s run. Gets the first-time visor today which may spark the 11-year-old back to form.

Minella Till Down, a stablemate of General Principle, is much better fancied than his stablemate. He was a decisive winner at Cork 36-days ago. The first-time blinkers clearly had the desired effect on the 8-year-old. Steps up markedly in trip here from 2m 4f and is 14lb higher now. The rise in the ratings isn’t as big a concern as stamina for today’s 3m 4 ½ f. If he stays, he will take plenty of beating.

Rocky’s Silver made it 4 wins from 8 runs over fences and 2 wins from 2 runs at Punchestown when winning the Amateur National 28-days ago. Up 7lb for that win but a 5lb claimer has been booked which negates much of that weight rise. The 7-year-old races like today’s step up in trip will suit and he can go close at track that suits. Hopefully the rain will arrive to ease the ground which would enhance his chance.

Cheb De Kerviniou, finished 8 lengths behind Rocky’s Silver in third here last time. He gets a 7lb pull with the winner, not considering that horses jockey’s claim, so shouldn’t be far away here. The 10-year-old has only had two starts for Gordon Elliott since switching from France. Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride so a big run can be expected.

Forza Milan, was useful staying handicap hurdler when trained by Jonjo O’Neill. The 8-year-old has run well on both his last two starts in beginners/novice chase company when runner-up to Castlebawn West and latterly to Carefully Selected at Naas 14-days ago. Seems to be well fancied in the betting for his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark.

Verdict: If he stays, Minella Till Dawn must be feared.  Forza Milan looks nicely weighted for his handicap chase debut.  Rocky’s Silver is nicely progressive, should be suited by today’s step up in trip and the rain has come at the right time for him.  General Principle hasn’t been in much form since finishing third in this race 12 months ago, but he’s dropped down to a tempting mark.

1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – General Principle – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hopefully Sunday’s racing won’t be wiped out by ‘Storm Ciara’ as there’s some decent action at Punchestown & Exeter. Both racecourses will hold morning inspections to see if racing can go ahead. The feature race at the first named track is the BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase and Exeter has Veteran’s Series Qualifier chase and Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier for racegoers to enjoy.

I could do with a winner today and I have selections from Punchestown & Exeter.

Exeter

3:00 – Palmers Hill is having his first start since winning a Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle 448-days ago.  Looked worth following, after that win and even off 9lb higher he looks capable of winning this, if his long absence hasn’t impacted on his ability. Won first time up last season and in 2017 so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

Welsh Saint is a steadily improving novice hurdler and makes his handicap debut over a trip that can elicit further progress from the 6-year-old. Of the more exposed runners

Kilbricken Storm is a strong contender. The 9-year-old won the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Last season was a bit of a write off after winning on debut over fences. Probably needed the run when 8th of 11 at Cheltenham on his seasonal return in December, running well to two out before fading after being headed at the last. Caught the eye when 3^rd of 12 behind Skandiburg back at the same venue on New Year’s Day. Retains plenty of his old ability and can remain competitive in staying handicap hurdles like this, albeit he’s vulnerable to less exposed rivals.

1pt each way – Kilbricken Storm – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:30 – Back into the tracker for another selection. Joe Farrell was well fancied in the market sent off 3/1 favourite for a veteran’s chase at Chepstow on his seasonal return in October.He travelled well through the race and when hitting the front two out looked likely to win. However, he made a mistake at the last, lost two places and had to settle for third. Not disgraced when staying on into 7^th in the Ladbroke Trophy and remains capable of winning a staying handicap chase this season.

Granted 3m is on the short side for this previous Scottish Grand National winner and heavy ground would be a concern but if it’s soft it will bring out his reserves of stamina.

Missed Approach would be a big danger to all on the best of his old form. The 10-year-old won the 2018 Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, off 3lb lower and returns from a 428-day absence today. No issues with soft or indeed heavy ground for him. Fitness has to be taken on trust, however, he has won off a big lay off in the past.

1pt win – Joe Farrell – 10/1 @Bet365

1pt win – Missed Approach – 13/2 @Bet365

Punchestown

4:25 – BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f

Nineteen have been declared to run for this year’s renewal. Here’s my short list of contenders:

General Principle, trained by Gordon Elliott, has been in dreadful form since finishing third in this race 12 months ago off 11lb higher. The 2018 Irish Grand National winner, off 8lb higher, has tumbled down the weights after some poor runs but is a very well handicapped horse if reproducing last year’s run. Gets the first-time visor today which may spark the 11-year-old back to form.

Minella Till Down, a stablemate of General Principle, is much better fancied than his stablemate. He was a decisive winner at Cork 36-days ago. The first-time blinkers clearly had the desired effect on the 8-year-old. Steps up markedly in trip here from 2m 4f and is 14lb higher now. The rise in the ratings isn’t as big a concern as stamina for today’s 3m 4 ½ f. If he stays, he will take plenty of beating.

Rocky’s Silver made it 4 wins from 8 runs over fences and 2 wins from 2 runs at Punchestown when winning the Amateur National 28-days ago. Up 7lb for that win but a 5lb claimer has been booked which negates much of that weight rise. The 7-year-old races like today’s step up in trip will suit and he can go close at track that suits. Hopefully the rain will arrive to ease the ground which would enhance his chance.

Cheb De Kerviniou, finished 8 lengths behind Rocky’s Silver in third here last time. He gets a 7lb pull with the winner, not considering that horses jockey’s claim, so shouldn’t be far away here. The 10-year-old has only had two starts for Gordon Elliott since switching from France. Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride so a big run can be expected.

Forza Milan, was useful staying handicap hurdler when trained by Jonjo O’Neill. The 8-year-old has run well on both his last two starts in beginners/novice chase company when runner-up to Castlebawn West and latterly to Carefully Selected at Naas 14-days ago. Seems to be well fancied in the betting for his handicap chase debut off what looks a workable mark.

Verdict: If he stays, Minella Till Dawn must be feared.  Rocky’s Silver is nicely progressive and should be suited by today’s step up in trip. General Principle hasn’t been in much form since finishing third in this race 12 months ago, but he’s dropped down to a tempting mark.

1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt each way – General Principle – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well it’s not as busy on the betting front this weekend as it was last. The racing is interesting though.

At Newbury, Altior returns in what was formerly known Game Spirit Chase and a good win here will put him on course for another success in the Champion Chase. In the Denman Chase, previous Gold Cup winner Native River is another chaser returning to action in preparation for another tilt at the Gold Cup crown.  In addition to those small field chases we have the Betfair Hurdle which is one of the most valuable races of its kind in the jumps racing calendar and it’s attracted a big field of 24 handicap hurdlers.

Over at Warwick it’s Grade 2 action with the latest running of the Kingmaker Chase with six declared runners and the winner of that race could head to the Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. There’s also a competitive looking eight runner Class 2 handicap chase on Warwick’s seven race card.

Let’s begin Saturday’s betting preview at, where else but, Newbury. Despite having the Game Spirit & Denman Chase on the card It’s the handicaps that have attracted me from a betting perspective. I have looked at the Betfair Hurdle in some depth so all we need to do now is find the winner.

Newbury

A mostly dry week at Newbury means the going description has been changed to good from good to soft.

3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m ½ f

Looking at the trends which contain 10 winners from 198 runners 38 placed.

The last ten winners shared the following trends.

Age: 5yo to 6yo;

Last Time Out Placing: First Three;

Handicap Wins: 0 to 1

10 winners from 61 runners +57.25 19 placed

Good race for trends fans but as ever trends are always there to be broken. Indeed, the well fancied Not So Sleepy fails two of the three trends.

In my Monday’s Daily Punt column, I put up Flegmatik as a lively long shot at 25/1. He can big backed at 28/1 now which suggests he’s not as well fancied as I thought he would be. The drying ground shouldn’t be a problem. I think he’s open to more improvement and is on mark he can win off. Trainer Dan Skelton had the third in the race in 2018.

Not So Sleepy a good staying handicapper on the flat seems to have been rejuvenated by the switch to hurdles this season. Twice a winner at Ascot he 17lb higher than for his last win and at eight he does fail the age trend. He did us a favour last time, but I don’t think I will be with him this time.

Irish Raider Ciel De Neige, trained by Willie Mullins, comes over for the race. He’s suited by a big field as he showed when 3rd of 21 in last seasons Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. Going with good in the description is an unknown for the 5-year-old but he remains a strong contender last seasons Cheltenham Festival form.

Evan Williams saddles a couple of contenders in Mack The Man & Quoi De Neuf.  The formerhas improved to win both his starts over hurdles this season and has sneaked into the race at the bottom of the weights. Up 8lb for his last win and today’s better ground will provide a new test for him. The latter was a close 4th in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle back in November and must be respected on that run, off 4lb higher but was bought down at the 4th in the race that Not So Sleepy won at Ascot. Won a good ground novice hurdle at Aintree in November 2018 but his best recent form has come on soft and heavy.

The mare Never Adapt isnow 2 wins from 4 starts over hurdles, pulled to hard when 3^rd of 13 on her seasonal return at Cheltenham before winning in the style of a well handicapped horse at Kempton last month, despite being keen once more. Up 10lb for that win she needs to settle better if she’s to be able to fulfil her undoubted ability. At least the big field can help in this regard.

Philip Hobbs saddles Oakley & Gumball. Oakley is proving a consistent handicap hurdler. He’s improved on each of his three starts over hurdles, finishing third to Not So Sleepy at Ascot back in November before finishing a neck 2nd of 13 at Cheltenham on his last run 57-days ago with Never Adapt back in third. He gets 15lb from Not So Sleepy, for 2 ¼ lengths, today and he shouldn’t be too far away. Gumball finished runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle and is now 6lb higher.  Likes big field handicaps but must carry top-weight of 11-12 which make him vulnerable to any less exposed rivals.

Harambe won the Greatwood Hurdle on his last start 83-days ago and the 7-year-old could be capable of a bit more improvement, which he will need to find from a 7lb higher mark than in the Greatwood.  Trainer Alan King had a welcome winner at Kempton on Friday and the drying ground isn’t a problem as he’s won on good and to good to soft in the past.

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +35.5 4 placed 67% since 2014 in the race, including last year’s winner at Ascot. He saddles Stolen Silver & Sir Valentine in this year’s renewal. The first named looks the stables first choice and look to have an ideal profile for a winner of the race. Stolen Silver was an unlikely looking winner coming to the last but a strong finish on the run-in saw him snatch a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle on the line, at Haydock last month. A 5lb penalty for his Haydock win makes life tougher but he’s going the right-way and still looks a big player here.

Back in third, 2 lengths, in the Haydock race was Thebannerkingrebel. The 7-year-old was giving Stolen Silver 5lb that day and but for a mistake at the last could well have gone onto win. A big field handicap is new experience, but he gets 9lb from the winner today and is another sure to be there or thereabouts at the finish.

The quicker the ground the better for the Emma Lavelle trained Highly Prized. Has won his last two starts both on good ground and remains open to further progress, despite a 10lb rise in the weights. But I’m not sure the ground will have dried out sufficiently for the 7-year-old and he also fails the age trend for the race.

Mill Green is another who fails the age trend. The 8-year-old came with a strong finish to win at Sandown last time. No issues with the drying ground but shaped like he needs further on 2m on this sort of ground.

Nelson River was a useful juvenile hurdler last season, finishing 4^th of 14 behind Pentland Hills in the Triumph Hurdle but his mark looks plenty high enough for his handicap debut.

Verdict: Novices like Thebannerkingrebel & Stolen Silver retain the potential to rate higher than their present marks. Highly Prized will enjoy the return to good ground. But how good will the ground be? Flegmatik looks the type who will appreciate a big field handicap scenario and has each way claims in a hot race. That set up also suits Irish raider Ciel De Neige who might just need further on this sort of ground. If the lightly raced mare Never Adapt can settle better today, she’s another very much in the mix.

0.5pts each way – Flegmatik – 28/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Never Adapt -7/1 – Gen

4:10 – Once again the drying ground means a small field for this 2m 7 ½ f Class 3 novices handicap chase. Redzor will appreciate the return to a sounder surface. However,I’m going to take a chance here with the Nicky Henderson trained Post War. The 9-year-old returned from a mammoth 1051-day break here 42 days ago. He ran better than his final position suggests of 6^th, beaten over 30 lengths, on his chase debut and was still in contention four out before a lack of fitness tolled and he weakened out of it. Should be sharper for that run and given his lightly raced profile could still rate higher than 123.

1pt win – Post War – 7/1 @Bet365

Warwick

Like at Newbury it’s been a dry week at Warwick which means the going has changed from soft to good to soft.

2:05 – The Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase. Nube Negra heads the ante post market. The 6-year-old is an improving chaser who will be suited by the drying ground and comes into the race with the best form after his runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown 63-days ago. The one to beat on form.

Moonlighter & Precious Cargo were first and second in a heavy ground Newbury novices handicap chase. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again, but the runner-up has arguably more scope for improvement and may be better on this sounder surface.

The one who could give the favourite most to do is Rouge Vif. The 6-year -old won a Market Rasen on his chase/seasonal debut back in October before being a shade disappointing when last of four upped to Grade 2 company at Cheltenham a month later. Showed that running was all wrong when running Global Citizen to 1 ½ f in a Kempton Grade 2 over Christmas. That was his first run since a wind-op which seemed to have done the trick. More progress likely and he should give his backers a good run for their money.

1pt win – Rouge Vif – 7/2 @Bet365

3:15 – A 2m 4f Class 2 handicap. At the time of writing the field size has held up, despite the going change, with 8 declared runners.

Belami Des Pictons won a novice chase here over 3m three years ago. Having his first start, since pulling up in February, in the Betvictor Gold Cup, he was hampered at the second and soon found himself at the back of the field. To his credit. He managed to work his way through the field to finish a never nearer 4th of 17 at the finish. The 9-year-old was to bad to be true at Kempton over Christmas when sent off the 2/1 favourite. Better expected and there’s a decent pot to be won with him if back to his best.

Two Taffs has returned from a 735-day break with two efforts over hurdles and last time in the Ladbroke Trophy. Drop in trip will suit and the good ground is in his favour but how much of his old ability does this former progressive handicap chaser retain.

Clondaw Castle is another for whom the drying ground is a positive. The 8-year-old needs respecting on his 1 ½ length second to Diego Du Charmill two starts back at Ascot, off 1lb higher. Stamina for trip still to be proved and the trainer is struggling for winners at the moment.

Gala Ball is a likeable handicap chaser who left a poor seasonal reappearance well behind when winning at Wincanton last month. Only up 2lb for that last win and interesting that trainer Philip Hobbs for the first time cheekpieces today.

Katpoli appreciated the return to going left-handed when winning at Wetherby 28-days ago. Up 4lb now but this is only the 5-year-old’s fifth start over the larger obstacles so he’s open to further improvement in the sphere.

King Of Realms ran better last time at Kempton than he had done on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot.  A 3m handicap chase winner here on good ground, last March, off 1lb lower, he has to be respected of his handicap mark but the drop in trip could prove to sharp unless the first-time blinkers have the desired effect. Did win in the first visor last season which is a positive for the headgear change.

Verdict:  Belami Des Pictonshas the ability to win this but may prefer softer. Despite the drop in trip I think we can see a good run from the first-time blinkered King Of Realms.

1pt win – King Of Realms – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Lingfield

2:20 – An interesting1m Class 2 handicap which has attracted a field of seven runners. A few inform all-weather horses: Kuwait Currency, Corazon Espinado, Silent Attack & Goring. But I’m taking them on with two horses returning to the track for the first time since September.

Zhui Feng on a losing run that dates to June 2018 but has run some decent enough races since then to think he retains ability. Has run well first time on all his last three seasonal reappearances so fitness should be fine. Not had many goes on the all-weather 1 win from 2 runs and finished 4^th here. in the 2017 Winter Derby. Dropping down to a winnable mark and can go well.

Spirit Warning also has placed form when returning from a break and was in great form on the synthetics in the first half of 2019 with form figures 21141. The only time he was out of the first two was on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Should give a good account of himself here.

1pt win – Zhui Feng – 10/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Spirit Warning -9/1 @ Bet365

There’s some good racing both sides of Irish Sea on Sunday at Punchestown with the feature race being the BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase. Exeter’s seven race card is also a decent one for a Sunday with a Listed novices’ hurdle, a Veteran’s Series Qualifier chase and Pertemps Series Qualifier the main highlights. Mind you the latter meeting may not take place as it’s subject to a Sunday morning inspection with ‘Storm Ciara’ on the way.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Kempton

2:25 – Ar Mest a three-time 127 rated hurdler, unseated his rider three out at Fontwell on his seasonal return/chase debut. He looked to be in the process of going close but for that error in what now looks like was a decent novice chase.  Ran well on his return to fences when third to Molineaux at Wincanton last month., the second that day has since gone onto win a handicap chase. He needs to improve further here but he was progressive over hurdles and this is only the 7-year-old’s third start over fences, so that’s possible.

1pt win – Ar Mest – 9/2 – Gen

3:30 – Waikiki Waves, like Ar Mest trained by Garry Moore, has been well placed by his trainer to win five of his seven starts over fences. The selection made a winning seasonal reappearance at Fontwell back in October. Was put up 10lb for that success but put in a decent effort off his new rating when 5th of 9 at Sandown last month. Had been off for 73-days prior to that run so may just have needed it and still bang in contention when making a race ending blunder at the last. Probably needs to find some more improvement to win off his present mark but the step up to an easy 3m could do the trick. Has an each-way chance in a decent looking  handicap chase.

1pt each way – Waikiki Waves – 10/1 @ William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another Cheltenham Festival ante-post betting preview and this the penultimate one in the series. With the final one coming either next week or possibly the week after.

Last time I put up a couple of selections for the Coral Cup & Grand Annual Handicap Chase. This week I have a couple of selections for the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, one for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, one for the Marsh Novices’ Chase, one for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, one for Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, a second selection for the Arkle Novices Chase and a dip into the Champion Hurdle betting.  

It’s a lot but it could have contained two more but I’m still sitting on the fence regarding adding them. I now have 16 horses in my Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio. I will post up the full list next time.

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections

Tuesday March 10^th

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Asterion Forlange, trained by Willie Mullins, is now three wins from three runs this season, last two wins have come since going hurdling. A ten-length winner on his hurdle debut a Naas last month. He was upped to Grade 1 company at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 6-year-old took the rise in class in his stride and he proved to strong for his six rivals, including the high class Easywork who came into the race unbeaten on his three starts over hurdles.

It was an impressive success by an inexperienced horse and there looks sure to be more improvement to come from him. The shortest of the horses I’m putting up for the portfolio but he’s worth putting in as I think he will win the opening race at the Cheltenham Festival and give his trainer a fifth win in the race in eight seasons.

For the stats fans it’s worth noting Willie Mullins’ record at the Cheltenham Festival with 5- & 6-year olds, that had won their last start at Leopardstown – 11 winners from 29 runners 38% +40.09 A/E 1.88 17 placed 57%.  That’s a stat worth noting at this year’s festival more generally.

Asterion Forlange is plenty short enough but is my first 2pt ante post bet of this year’s festival.

2pts win – Asterion Forlange – 11/2 @ William Hill

Arkle Novices Chase

I put up Global Citizen up for the Arkle a couple of weeks ago. Today I’m adding a second in the shape of Brewin’upastorm, trained by Ollie Murphy, the 7-year-old was a 148 rated hurdler who finished 4^th in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle before finishing runner-up in Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree in April.

Connections always expected the horse to be a better chaser than a hurdler and so it’s proved as he’s already a 150 rated over the larger obstacles after just two starts. We haven’t seen Brewin’upastorm since making two out of two over fences when winning a Taunton novice chase back in November. His absence from the track isn’t a negative as he’s 3 wins from 3 runs when returning from a 121+day layoff.

He needs to improve to win a race like the Arkle on what he’s shown so far but I fully expect him to rate much higher than a 150 horse.

I wouldn’t put anyone off going each way on the selection at a double figure price but I’m going on the ‘nose’ here.

2pts win – Brewin’upastorm – 10/1 – Gen

Champion Hurdle

Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell won last year’s Champion Hurdle and he has a lively outsider for this year’s renewal in Darver Star. All eyes were on Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Racing for the first time out of novice company.  He ran a super race out running his 20/1 odds to finish runner-up to Honeysuckle, beaten just ½ length. The race was run in a good time, so the form is reliable and there was plenty to like about how the way he finished off his race.

He’s still a novice so could head to Cheltenham for one of the novice hurdles but surely connections will roll the dice and head for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this performance. He doesn’t have to improve much more to be a contender what’s an open looking race. The 33/1 available with William Hill looks a bit of value to me.

1pt each way – Darver Star – 33/1 @ William Hill (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

Wednesday March 11^th

Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Top Irish Novice hurdler Envoi Allen is a short-priced ante post favourite for this Grade 1 novice hurdle run over 2m 5f. You can see why the 6-year-old heads the market as his form is the best on offer. However, there is one that appeals each way and it’s the Willie Mullins trained The Big Getaway.

The son of Getaway was beaten favourite on both his bumper starts (odds on twice) last season but finally got his head in front in a bumper when winning at Punchestown on his seasonal return in November. Sent off 11/10 for his hurdle debut at Leopardstown over Christmas he could only finish 4^th of 15 to Cobbler’s Way. However, he was unlucky not to make a winning debut that day as it looked like he had just the better of the eventual winner coming to the last before making a bad mistake which he couldn’t recover from.  It was his costly mistake.

The 6-year-old then demolished a big field of maidens by 17 lengths at Naas last month. He jumped notably well at Naas and seemed appreciate being given a prominent ride from the off.

The Big Getaway is big galloping type who has a huge stride and can gallop his rivals into the ground. Very much on the up with plenty of scope for improvement as you would expect from a horse that could make up into a top-class staying chaser in time. He has entries in both the Ballymore & Albert Bartlett but after his Naas success Willie Mullins indicated that the Ballymore was his likely target which I hope it will be.

Normally I look for 14/1 or bigger if I’m going each way but given Envoi Allen is set to be in the line up maybe an each way bet is the best way to go here.

1pt each way – The Big Getaway – 12/1 – Gen

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Now sponsored by Boodles. The Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, run in the memory of one jump racings great trainers, is a race for juveniles hurdlers run over 2m ½ f  It’s race that was first staged in 2005  and is for horse who aren’t quite good enough for the Triumph Hurdle later in the week’ Last year’s renewal was by the 7/2 favourite Band Of Outlaws for trainer Joseph O’Brien.

Palladium, trained by Nicky Henderson, a useful maiden on the flat when trained by Martyn Meade, has done well since switching to hurdles. Runner-up on his hurdle debut at Warwick in December he built on that promise with two wins at Sandown. The latest of which came on Saturday. The 4-year-old was a bit keen so the big field of the Fred Winter should help him settle better. It was encouraging that after Saturday’s win that trainer Nicky Henderson said he was aiming the gelding at the race which is always a major positive when it comes to ante post betting. The trainer won the race in 2012 and had the runner-up in 2017 & 2018.

The 20/1 available with William Hill looks great value to me.

1pt each way – Palladium – 20/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Thursday March 12th

Marsh Novices’ Chase

The Marsh Chase, formerly known as the JLT, is shaping up to be one of the races of the meeting if the front five in the ante post betting all show up. Just ½ length separated Faugheen & Easy Game at Leopardstown on Sunday and I think the latter provides better value than his more illustrious stablemate. Besides those two, Willie Mullins also has Allaho in the field who many shrewd judges see as a likely winner of the race.

We also Mister Fisher who’s capable of more improvement, especially if he gets better ground than he’s been running on so far this winter.       

Itchy Feet was a taking winner of Sandown’s feature race, the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase on Saturday.

The 6-year-old was only having his second start over fences. An easy winner at Leicester when making all. He was held up here off a good pace. Making nice headway coming to three out, he made a slight mistake on landing two out didn’t stop his momentum as he powered clear of his rivals after the last.

Granted hot favourite Laurina again failed to perform. She was never jumping or travelling at any stage and eventually was pulled up when well behind. But that shouldn’t take away from the winner performance.

It was Olly Murphy’s first Grade 1 winner and it won’t be his last, that’s for sure. Could he now go on and train a first Cheltenham Festival Winner? I think he can, and he may well have two.

2pts win – Itchy Feet – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Friday March 13^th

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

This race now brings down the curtain on the Cheltenham Festival. It’s arguably one of the toughest puzzles of the four days but it’s an opportunity for the conditional jockeys to showcase their talent in the saddle.

First run in 2009 last year’s race produced an exciting finish with the Jonjo O’Neill Jnr ridden Early Doors just getting the better of Dallas Des Pictons on the run in.

I have two selections for the race. The first, Column Of Fire caught the eye at Leopardstown on Sunday. The 6-year-old has improved with each of his last four starts over hurdles. He broke his maiden tag at the sixth attempt over hurdles with a comfortable win of a Punchestown maiden last month, although probably should have done so on his previous start at Fairyhouse when falling two out.

It was a career best on Racing Post Ratings (RPR’s) from the Gordon Elliott trained gelding on his handicap hurdle debut when finishing 3^rd of 28 to Treacysenniscorthy in the valuable 3m handicap hurdle on Sunday. He stayed the 3m mile well enough at Leopardstown but the drop back to 2m 4 ½ f shouldn’t inconvenience him. He’s continues on an upward curve and look and looks an ideal type for the race if he comes over in March. Owned by Gigginstown House Stud, I believe they are sponsoring this year’s race and their colours have a great record in the race 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +28 7 placed 70% +40.88 since 2013. The last two winners were also trained by Gordon Elliott.

The other I like for the race at this stage is Front View. Trained by Joseph O’Brien the 5-year-old is less experienced than Column Of Fire but brings undoubted potential to the race should he run. A winner of a bumper at last year’s Punchestown Festival. He took on Envoi Allen on his hurdle debut at Down Royal and wasn’t disgraced in finishing second to Ireland’s leading novice hurdler. Fifteen days later he won a Cork maiden in a decent time. The runner-up that day has since gone on to win a Listed bumper at Navan so the form looks solid enough. After his Cork success, Jockey J J Slevin described the gelding as having “a lot of ability. He has a lot of speed and he’s an exciting horse.

There’s every chance that Front View should stay 2m 4f and he might have gone a little under the radar for the Martin Pipe given we haven’t seen him on the track since mid-November. Given a mark of 134 by the Irish handicapper, hopefully he won’t get much more from the British one, if he doesn’t, he would be racing off an attractive mark should connections bring him over for the race. Trainer won this race last year with Early Doors who like Front View is owned by J P McManus.

2pts win – Column Of Fire – 10/1 – Gen

1pt each way – Front View – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

The Dublin Racing Festival is done and dusted for another year. The racing was compelling, there were plenty of noteworthy performances, a few blowouts and a handful of horse’s worth adding to the tracker.

The controversy over watering the Leopardstown track continued. On the Saturday trainer Gordon Elliott was critical that not enough watering had been done prior to the meeting. The course management watered after racing on Saturday and that added to a small amount rain that fell overnight turned the ground much softer than the official going description of yielding. Looking at the times the hurdle course was nearer soft, and the chase track was bordering on heavy for Sunday’s racing.

This weekend racing isn’t as spectacular as last weeks. But there a few highlights to look forward to. At Newbury we should see the return of Altior in the Game Spirit Chase.

Another previous Cheltenham winner Native River well complete his Gold Cup preparation in the Denman Chase.

Add in the valuable Betfair Hurdle which is sure to attract a big field of handicap hurdlers for a winner’s prize of £87,219 and you have some good action to look forward too.

At Warwick there’s Grade 2 action, with the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase the feature of a seven-race card at the midlands track

On Sunday, Exeter hosts a high-quality seven race card with a Listed 2m1f novice hurdle which has been won by the likes of Native River & Politologue in recent seasons in addition to a Pertemps Series Qualifier & Veteran’s Chase Qualifier.

Over the Irish Sea. Punchestown stages a good card with the highly competitive BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase the feature race.

Back to last weekend and this eyecatcher article solely concentrates on the Leopardstown action.

Leopardstown

Saturday February 1^st

Longshore Poet my Albert Bartlett ante post selection ran a perfectly good race in the opening Grade 1 novices’ hurdle.  He was plenty keen enough through the race and did well to finish as close as he did. Coming to the last he was just in the lead, but his effort just flattened on the run in and he had to settle for third.

A bigger field at Cheltenham should suit him as he can be dropped in. In the circumstances it was a perfectly respectable run and he remains on course for the Festival but is maybe more a place contender than a win one now.

Previous eyecatcher Golden Jewel did what Golden Jewel always does and run well in a big field handicap without winning. Held up at the back, he was smuggled into the race on the inside but had to be switched at the last. Staying on strongly on the run in to finish second he might have got closer to winner Thosedaysaregone but for not getting the best of runs at the last.

He could come over to Cheltenham to run in the County Hurdle and in a big field handicap you can never rule him out.

Appreciate It, trained by Willie Mullins, was the most impressive winner over the two days in the Grade 2 bumper that concluded the card. Travelling strongly in second 3f out. He took the lead coming to the final furlong and only had to pushed out to win by an easing up 7 ½ lengths.

He’s now a best price 5/2 with Paddy Power for the Champion Bumper. He will be a banker for many there and he will be tough to beat on the evidence of this high-class performance in what was a really good time for a bumper race.

My ante-post selection in the race Ask A Honey Bee is ticking along nicely and won his third bumper race on the trot at Wetherby on Saturday.

The 50/1 advised his looking rather tasty as he’s now down to a general 20/1 for the Champion Bumper.  Still the Mullins looks like he will be a tough nut to crack.

I have two eyecatcher from day one of the Dublin Racing Festival.

Batcio – Ted Walsh

The 8-year-old had been in good form in December winning a beginners’ chase at Clonmel before stepping into handicap chase company for the first time and finishing 2^nd of 16 over C&D at Christmas.

He set out to make all in the 2m 1f handicap chase. Always up in the lead he was still shading it when falling two out. He will remain on a competitive mark after this and there are more races to be won with him, provided this mishap hasn’t dented his confidence.

Darver Star – Gavin Cromwell

All eyes were on Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle but the eyecatcher of the race was Darver Star. The 8-year-old has been one of the most improved hurdlers in Ireland this season.  Back in August he won a minor hurdle at Downpatrick when rated just 119. Since then he’s gone onto win three more hurdles, before finishing a 4 length third to top novice Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse in December.

Racing for the first time out of novice company.  He ran a super race out running his 20/1 odds to finish runner-up to Honeysuckle, beaten just ½ length. The race was run in a good time, so the form is reliable and there was plenty to like about how the way he finished off his race.

He’s still a novice so could head to Cheltenham for one of the novice hurdles but surely connections will roll the dice and head for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this performance. He doesn’t have to improve much more to be a contender what’s an open looking race.  

Sunday February 2^nd

The feature of day two was the Irish Gold Cup and it was a re-run of December’s Savills Chase.

Delta Work the winner of the Savills Chase over Christmas did it again with another solid win. The 7-year-old is now a strong contender for the Gold Cup and should appreciate the extra distance at Cheltenham.

Kemboy only 4^th in the Savills Chase but was giving away race fitness that day. As expected he got closer to Delta Work on Sunday to finish second but for me, he made too many jumping errors to be a Gold Cup winner.

Presenting Percy is a bit of an enigma. Fifth in the Savills Chase, he finished third here but was ¾ length further behind the winner than at Christmas.

On the face of it this seems a disappointing run by the 9-year-old, but he was travelling like the most likely winner coming to two out. A slight mistake there didn’t help his cause, but he was in slight lead coming to the last. His backers for this and the Gold Cup will, however, have been underwhelmed in finishing effort after the last.

He was pushed out in the Gold Cup betting after this run but maybe the bookies have been a bit premature. I think he’s been trained to be spot on for Cheltenham in March. It’s worth remembering last season’s Gold Cup aside, he has won twice at the Cheltenham Festival and was such an impressive winner of the RSA Novices’ Chase two years ago.  

I wouldn’t be surprised if he was to beat Delta Work in March but whether he can be beat the last year’s winner Al Boum Photo & up and coming Santini is another matter.

I have a two eyecatchers from the handicap races on the card.

You Can Call Me Al – Edward O’Grady

The 6-year-old has shaped with plenty of promise in maiden company since going hurdling this season, most notably when a close-up 3^rd of 25 behind Embittered at Naas. He’s a big strong chase type with plenty of scope for improvement but you can see why the hood has been applied on his last four starts.

A beaten favourite (6/4) when 3^rd of 16 at Limerick over Christmas. Not for the first time he far too keen in the early stages of the race and didn’t see his race as well as the two who finished in front of him.

Stepping markedly in distance to 3m for his handicap hurdle debut he was once again noted travelling powerfully behind leader Treacysenniscorthy and was still very much in contention when falling four out.  Given how hard he was pulling at the time of his departure it was too early to say whether he would have played a part in the finish but there’s no doubt he has plenty of ability.

If he’s to fulfill his undoubted potential, he needs to settle better in his race but when he does he’s on a winnable mark.

At The Acorn – Tony  Martin

Two 33/1 shots Glamorgan Duke & Trainwreck fought out the finish of the 2m 5f handicap chase. However, it proved to be a race full of incident, most notably at the final fence jumped, the normal last fence was bypassed.

Articulum who was close-up fell at the fence. If only the 10-year-old could put in a clear round of jumping as he’s got the ability to win a good pot. It’s just hard to say when that will be, as he’s now failed to complete on his last three starts.

The two worst suffers from Articulum’s fall where 9/2 favourite At The Acorn who did well to finish as close as he did in 6th.

The 6-year-old had been raised 15lb for winning a Fairyhouse novice chase last month but he clearly remains on a winning mark and is one to keep onside going forward in valuable handicap chases until the end of the season. There’s plenty to like about the gelding who should get 3m and could even develop into an Irish Grand National contender. A race the trainer won back in 2001.

Another suffer at the final fence was Fitzhenry. The Paul Nolan trained 8-year-old had creeped into contention when badly hampered by Articulum’s fall and it ended any chance he had.

Prior to this he had finished runner-up in the Troytown & Paddy Power. He’s proving very consistent in these valuable handicap chases, but that consistency means he’s risen 7lb in the weights. He deserves to win one a decent pot.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There was a lot to take out of the Dublin Racing Festival. Some great performances and few horses to add the trackers going forward.

On the betting front, yesterday wasn’t good and I got involved in a couple of races I shouldn’t have but the racing was so tempting to resist.

My latest eyecatcher article will be with you tomorrow and by Wednesday you will have my latest Cheltenham ante post article which is likely to be the penultimate one as far as the Festival is concerned and there are a few more selections that I will be adding to the portfolio.

Just a few thoughts I would share with you on the Dublin Racing Festival and an improving handicap chaser that ran at Taunton yesterday

Leopardstown

Looking at the times for yesterday at the Dublin Racing Festival,

The watering, plus the small amount rain that fell overnight turned the ground much softer than the official going description of yielding.

The hurdles track was soft, and the chase course was more soft to heavy than yielding. It will be worth taking that into account going forward.

In the circumstances it was a good effort by Easy Game to run Faugheen so close in the Flogas Novices’ Chase. I have Easy Game down as a better horse on a sounder surface. Not sure why he’s as big as 12/1 for the Marsh Chase at the Festival while Faugheen is as short as 5/1.

If they both end up in the Marsh Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. That is going to be some race with the likes of Itchy Feet, very impressive at Sandown on Saturday, Allaho & Mister Fisher other possible runners.

Taunton

There was a welcome return to form for the Kim Bailey stable over the weekend.

Lots Of Luck was one of his winners taking the 2m 2f novices’ handicap chase at Taunton on Sunday in the manner of a progressive young handicap chaser. The 6-year-old is a big chasing type, just the sort that the trainer enjoys working with. He should stay 2m 4f and is very much ahead of his mark. He will go up a fair bit the weights for this effort, maybe 11 or 12lb but he has an entry at Huntingdon on Thursday so it will be interesting to see if the trainer decides to run him under a penalty. The trainer is 2 winners from 6 runners 33% -0.25 4 placed 67% with winning handicap chasers racing within seven days of their last start. Both winners were sent off favourite.

I don’t think there will be many selections until the weekend but watch your inbox for any updates as well as the eyecatcher and ante-post articles.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well it was cracking day’s racing at Leopardstown but more gruelling for runners at Sandown.

Éclair De Beaufeu 1st (8/1 BOG) & Cobbler’s Way 2^nd (14/1) gave us a break-even day. It could have been a bit better, but it could have been a lot worse on a competitive day’s sport.

There’s good racing at Musselburgh but I’m concentrating on day two of the Dublin Racing Festival. I appreciate I spent too long on my Leopardstown write ups yesterday, but I enjoyed writing them and I hope you enjoyed reading them and got plenty from them.

I will try to make it shorter today.  Like yesterday you can find my selections at the end.

Leopardstown

A bumper eight race card at the Dublin Racing Festival and all the action gets underway at 12:55 with a 2m 2f mares handicap hurdle. The feature race of a great card is the Irish Gold Cup at 3:30.

12:55 – Well, just 27 runners in the opening race. Four that take my eye most are:

Jeremys Flame – Has improved with each of her five starts over hurdles but just found Fiddlerontheroof to strong in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown too strong last time. A classy novice hurdler who makes her handicap debut and despite her big weight looks competitively weighted.

Ena Baie – British raider from the Harry Fry stable. Both the 6-year-old’s last two starts have been in Ireland. Fourth of 20 at Galway back in August she improved further to finish 3^rd of 25 here over Christmas. Up 3lb for her last effort and up 2f in distance but she was strong at the finish last time so should stay the extra yardage of today’s race. Effective in big fields and plenty to like about her chance.

Willie Mullins who seems to dominate the mare’s division in Ireland has just the eight runners. The best of his could be Concertista. The 6-year-old ran a tremendous race to finish 2^nd of 22, beaten just a short head, in the Dawn Run Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, finishing well ahead of leading Champion Hurdle fancy Epatante.  Proved disappointing on her seasonal return when well beaten odds on favourite at Fairyhouse but fared slightly better when 3^rd in maiden hurdle on Boxing Day. Maybe she hasn’t progressed, or the ground has been a shade too soft for her this season. If it’s the latter she’s got a good chance with ground drying out on Saturday.

Paul Nolan saddled a winner here yesterday and jockey Kevin Brouder rode a winner. The pair combine today with lightly raced Mrs Milner. The mare won on her second start over hurdles at Thurles back in November before finishing 7^th in the same race as Ena Baie here over Christmas.Has 9 lengths to find with that one today but her jockey takes off a useful 5lb and she should be suited by today’s extra distance. Appealing each way claims.

1:25 – The first of today’s four Grade 1’s races, this one for the juvenile hurdlers. Aspire Tower is long odds on here and strong in the market for next months Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The 4-year-old has won both his starts since going hurdling and was notably impressive when winning over C&D 38-days ago.

One who could get close to the favourite is Never Do Nothing a who made all to win at Musselburgh on his hurdle debut 32-days ago. An expensive purchase from the Andrew Balding stable at 135,000gns in the autumn. He finished ahead of the favourite at the Shergar Cup and was rated 11lb higher on the level. The better the ground the better his chance so overnight watering might not be a positive for his chance.

1:55 – A Grade 1 novices’ hurdle over 2m. Willie Mullins has won this race six times since 2013 and he saddles three of today’s seven runners.  It may pay to take a chance with the bigger priced of his trio. Blue Sari finished runner-up to Envoi Allen in last season Cheltenham Champion Bumper and made a winning, if workmanlike, debut over hurdles at Punchestown in November. Was a tailed of last of 4 in a Grade 1 novices hurdle here at Christmas. That surely wasn’t his true running and the 5-year-old can bounce back here and show he remains an exciting prospect for next months Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

2:30 – A 3m handicap hurdle with €59,000 on offer to the winner it’s attracted a field of 28 runners.

This should be a 10/1 the field. The bookies favourite at 6/1 is one of the race reserves Cabaret Queen who returns to the smaller obstacles after falling in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase here over Christmas. She has a much lower hurdle mark to exploit if she gets in but at the prices, I can let her win.

Next in the ante post betting is the Gordon Elliott trained Column of Fire. The 6-year-old put in a career best at Racing Post Ratings when beating 17 rivals at Punchestown 18-days ago. Shapes like he will get 3m but the going was heavy at Punchestown and it will likely be quicker ground here.  He looks on a competitive mark for his handicap debut and should go well.

Tout Est Permis a high-class staying chaser who had done well on his last two runs since returning to the smaller obstacles. Last time out he finished 4th of 25 behind one of today’s rival Treacysenniscorthy in a Pertemps Series Qualifier over C&D. He’s rated 26lb lower than over fences and gets 7lb from that one today for a four-length beating.

Treacysenniscorthy remains a contender despite his 9lb rise in the weights. He’s won his last three starts and will make a bold bid for the four timer, despite his big rise in the weights.

Silver Sheen improved to win Pertemps Series Qualifier at Warwick last month to bring up the hat trick. There was plenty to like about how he rallied, after stumbling at the last to win by a neck. He’s been raised 3lb for that win but remains on a competitive mark with his trainer being better from now.

Owner J P McManus has a strong hand in the race and three of his: Gardens Of Babylon, Gran Geste & Morosini can be considered likely winners.

Morosini, like Silver Sheen trained by Jessica Harrington, has progressed with each of his last three start over hurdles since stepping up to 2m 4f. Put in a career best when winning at Cork last month. Up 9lb and steps up to 3m now which asks another question of the 5-year-old but he’s going the right way and a claimer takes off a useful 7lb.

Gran Geste is another capable of a big run here. The 7-year-old improved for the return to 2m 6f when winning a Galway handicap hurdle in October. Maintained that improvement when 3^rd to the Jam Man at Navan, one place behind Tout Est Permis, over 3m ½ f. He was strong at the finish that day and can go well here.

Gardens Of Babylon, third behind Pentland Hills in last year’s Triumph Hurdle before going on to beat Notebook over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival. Was down the field when well fancied (8/1) for the Galway Hurdle. Has finished runner-up in two small field Grade 3 hurdles on his last two starts. The 5-year-old takes a big step up in distance today but gives the impression he might stay especially if the ground isn’t too soft.

3:00 – The 2m 5f Grade 1 Flogas Novices Chase. It’s not a race I have bothered to look but surely Faugheen wins this if he stands up.

3:30 – The Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup. Delta Work, Presenting Percy & Kemboy were first, fourth and fifth respectively in the Grade 1 Savills Chase over Christmas. It hard to look beyond those three for the winner of this although Troytown Handicap Chase winner Chris’s Dream can’t be totally dismissed given he impressed when winning last time and is open to further improvement which he does need to find. Connections will hope the track gets plenty of water overnight.

Connections of both Kemboy and Presenting Percy will hope they can reverse form with Delta Work. The former was making his seasonal return and looked in need of the run. Three mile around here is his optimum. Presenting Percy is getting better with each race with the aim to peak at Cheltenham. He should be there or thereabouts but 3m is probably short enough for him.

An intriguing race but maybe one to watch rather than have a bet in

4:00 – A field of 24 handicap chasers are to meet the starter with €88,500 on offer to the winner. My shortlist includes: At The Acorn, Robin Des Foret, Dalles Des Pictons, Any Second Now, Articulum and the likes of Blazer, The Last Goodbye & Kitten Rock.

At The Acorn, heads the market after a good runs here over Christmas and then when winning a novice chase at Fairyhouse over 2m 5 ½ f 22-days ago. The 6-year-old is capable of more improvement despite a 15lb rise in the weights. Could he be the horse to give Tony Martin a big race win?

Robin Des Foret returned to action with a one length, 3^rd behind Warthog in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. Was still travelling well coming two out when stepped up to 3m in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over Christmas but his stamina ran out at the last and he faded to finish 6^th The drop back in trip will be in his in favour and the 10-year-old should give it a good go again.

Dallas Des Pictons a very useful handicap hurdler who the 3m handicap hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago before improving further to finish runner-up in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.  Won a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park on his debut over fences before a couple of decent, albeit well beaten efforts in Grade 3 company. Not hard to think he could be well handicapped off a mark of 135 but does need to jump better than he did last time behind Carefully Selected at Punchestown.

Any Second Now, won the 3m 2f Kim Muir Handicap at Cheltenham and was still very much in contention when hampered and unseating his rider four out in the Paddy Power. The drop back to 2m 5f may not be what he wants but he still needs respecting given trainer Ted Walsh has won this race twice since 2012.

Articulum has failed to complete on his last two chase starts which is a concern in a race as competitive as this but he’s travelled well enough in both races to think he’s a nicely handicapped horse. In the mix with a clear round of jumping.

Blazer, often gives off the impression he could win a race like this, hasn’t won since 2017, but tends to fail to deliver. Should be sharper for his recent return to action at Punchestown 22-days ago and the step back up in trip makes him interesting again.

The Last Goodbye won this race in 2018 off 2lb lower but not so good since. Ran respectably two starts back but wasn’t so good when last seen in action 105-days ago.

Mr Diablo won over C&D back in March 2017 off 1lb lower. More hit than miss since that success although was runner-up in the Troytown in November 2018. Not totally ruled out here but vulnerable to better handicapped horses.

Kitten Rock is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race but it’s hard to stay how much ability the 10-year-old still retains. A Grade 2 winning hurdler early in his career. He’s only had the five starts over fences, winning once, and was in contention when falling three out in a valuable Foxrock Handicap Chase back in December 2016. He’s only had three starts since that run but is now 11lb lower. Returned from a 517-day absence with a down the field effort over hurdles 33-days ago. Gets the first time cheekpieces today and can’t totally be ruled out.

4:35 – A Grade 2 mares bumper concludes the Dublin Racing Festival. Bigbadandbeautiful is the odds-on favourite after winning her last two starts. Those wins mean she must give weight all round to her rivals, but she remains the one they have to beat.

For those looking for one at bigger odds, it may pay to go with Politesse, a half-sister to Don Poli. The 6-year-old has only run once when 3^rd of 17 behind geldings Longhouse Poet & Monkfish in a Punchestown Festival bumper. She’s back against her own sex here and is open to further progress. Her trainer Lorna Fowler had a bumper winner at Down Royal on Thursday.

Leopardstown Selections:

12:55:

1pt win – Ena Baie – 10/1 – Gen

1pt win – Jeremys Flame – 7/1 @ Coral

0.5pts each way – Mrs Milner – 16/1 @ Bet365 (Paying 5 places ¼ odds)

1:55:

1pt win – Blue Sari – 13/2 @ William Hill

2:30:

1pt win – Morosini – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Silver Sheen – – 9/1 @ Bet365

4:00:

1pt win – At The Acorn – 5/1 – Gen

1pt win – Robin Des Foret – 8/1 @ Paddy Power

0.5pts each way – Articulum – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The Kings Writ ran cracker to finish second at 14/1 at Wincanton on Thursday with my other Moving in Style finishing 3^rd.  I read the race well enough and a small profit made on the race is what we are in the business for.

Fantastic! It’s the only word I can use to describe this weekend’s action from the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown and there’s also good jumps action this side of the Irish Sea with competitive enough cards at Sandown, Musselburgh & Wetherby.

Plenty to get through over the next couple of day so I will try to keep the words down to the minimum.  I have plenty of potential bets for Saturday from both Britain & Ireland but the only place I can start this weekend’s betting preview, is at the Dublin Racing Festival. I have taken an in depth look at all seven races for those of you who want to have bet in all the races. My Leopardstown selections will be at the bottom.

Dublin Racing Festival

Leopardstown

12:50 – I’m hoping my Albert Bartlett ante post selection; Longhouse Poet can win or go close in this 2m 6f Grade 1 novices’ hurdle. Elixir D’ainay finished one place ahead of Longhouse Poet behind Envoi Allen at Naas 27-days ago. He’s a good novice for sure but his stamina for the trip will be tested here. Cobbler’s Way was runner-up to the smart Andy Dufresne on his hurdle debut back in November and built on that promise when making all to win a maiden hurdle here over 2m 4 ½ f. The fourth The Big Getaway has since bolted up in a Naas maiden. A big chasing type Cobbler’s Way looked an ideal horse for the Albert Bartlett after his Leopardstown success. This is a step up in class for the 6-year-old who can improve for the step up in trip and has each way claims at around 12/1.

1:25 – Eight runners have been declared for the 2m 1f Dublin Chase. Favourite Chacun Pour Soi bids to restore his Champion Chaser credentials, after his second placed effort behind A Plus Tard, who re-opposes here, at Leopardstown over Christmas.  Connections will be disappointed if he can’t reverse places with the winner with that run under his belt.  This is not a two-horse race though. Besides the favourite trainer Willie Mullins also saddles Min & Cilaos Emery. The former bids for a race hat trick in the race. He might be better over further but his form figures at Leopardstown are 1211 so he can’t be easily dismissed on a track that suits. My preference is for Cilaos Emery who comes into the race slightly under the radar. The 8-year-old’s won both starts this season’s starts at Naas & Cork. He’s now unbeaten on his three starts over fences. Granted he lacks a bit of experience and his jumping will be tested in this company, but he remains a potential Grade 1 performer. We will know more about him today.

2:00 – Just the seven go to post for the 2m 1f Irish Arkle but what a cracking line up: Notebook, Fakir D’oudairies, Melon, Bapaume & Cash Back, the latter three trained by Willie Mullins. The first three named need no introduction. Bapaume, a good staying hurdler, finished 4^th of 18 to Paisley Park in last seasons Stayers Hurdle. The 7-year-old put in an impressive jumping display by a novice when winning a Naas beginners’ chase when dropped back to 2m 3f. This is just his third start over fences and there’s plenty of scope for improvement. Interesting to see he drops even further back in distance today. It’s probably a race to enjoy without having to have a bet but It wouldn’t surprise me if Bapaume turned out to be best of the three Mullins runners.

2:35 – The first of two big field valuable handicaps. This one is a 2m 1f handicap chase with 16 declared runners.

Last year’s winner Quamino, previous C&D winner Paloma Blue, Snugsborough Hall, Charlie Stout, Éclair De Beaufeu & Goulane Chosen all have chances. There should be a good pace so it should be a truly run race.

Quamino is 4lb higher than when winning 12 months ago. He’s vulnerable to any improvers or better handicapped horses, in the field but I wouldn’t be shocked if he popped up to win this again.

Snugsborough Hall was a good winner of a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival off 16lb lower, prior to that he had a novice chase over C&D. Had a nice prep for this over hurdles at Cork 28-days ago and should be spot on fitness wise.

Charlie Stout took advantage of a good handicap mark to win the valuable Dan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse 21-days ago. He’s just 5lb higher here and if he’s as effective at Leopardstown has a great chance of another big race success.

Éclair De Beaufeu was a good novice hurdler and was still in contention when unseating his rider in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The 6-year-old has taken well to the larger obstacles finishing runner-up to Notebook on his chase debut at Punchestown before winning a Wexford beginners chase. Has struggled in Grade 2 & 3 company on his last two starts but he looks competitively weighted for his handicap debut and Sean O’Keeffe takes off a useful 5lb. No problem with big fields over hurdles, was 4^th of 19 in the handicap hurdle here 12 months ago and can go well for trainer Gordon Elliott who had last year’s runner-up.

3:10 – The Irish Champion Hurdle.  A field of ten are set to meet the starter. The winner of the race could find themselves heading for next months Champion Hurdle with Honeysuckle, Sharjah & Klassical Dream all putting their Cheltenham credentials on the line. Klassical Dream won last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle before following up in the Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. Has been below par on both this season’s start. He’s better than he’s been able to show so far this season and it wouldn’t surprise me if last seasons top 2m novice hurdler bounced back to form to win this. He may need genuinely soft ground to be at his best but provided it doesn’t dry out too much he’s arguably the value in the race.

3:45 – Just the 23 go to post for the valuable 2m Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle not surprisingly given there’s €88,500 on offer to the winner.

Looking at the race I can make some sort of case for at least eight of the runners.  Willie Mullins saddles seven runners so you can’t rule out any of his out.

He has the ante post favourite in the J P McManus owned Unexcepted. The 6-year-old has only had the three career starts and is open to any amount of progress but at the prices I can let him win.

At slightly bigger prices Tiger Tap Tap & Buildmeupbuttercup look better plays.The former was a decent juvenile he has two his last two starts. Easily beat three rivals on his last start 23-days ago. He requires a good gallop which he should get today and he’s open to further progress now going handicapping. Paul Townend rode him on all three of his starts this season and he opts for Buildmeupbuttercup. The mare is an excellent dual-purpose horse who finished runner-up at Royal Ascot in the summer and also second in the November Handicap at Naas. She was traveling like the winner in a valuable Fairyhouse handicap hurdle 62-days ago when making a mistake two out but stayed on well enough all the way to the line to finish 2^nd of 15 to an improving stablemate.  Up 4lb but If jumping with more fluency, has a race like this in her.

Of the rest of the Mullins runners; Fan De Blues is an interesting light weight. A useful hurdler when trained in France. The 5-year-old made a winning debut for Willie Mullins when winning a Thurles maiden hurdle. Shaping that day like he would improve for a step up to 2m 4f. Hard to say whether a mark of 125 makes him well handicapped or not but excellent 5lb conditional Conor McNamara has been booked for the ride and he has no weight on his back.

Top Moon is open to improvement and comes into the race in great form having finished runner-up to Alfa Mix at Naas 48-days ago. The 5-year-old’s improvement has come when stepping up to 2m 4f so the drop to the minimum trip asks a different question of him. If it’s not an inconvenience he should be finishing his race of strongly.

Daybreak Boy was runner-up over C&D at Christmas in a 25-runner field. He’s up only 4lb for that effort and shouldn’t be far away if reproducing that that form.

Golden Jewel was third in the same Leopardstown handicap and he’s up 3lb here. The 7-year-old did best of those held up that day and was strong all the way to the line. He’s vulnerable to better handicapped horses in the field but is an outsider with serious each way claims.

Thatsy was one place and ¾ length behind Golden Jewel in 4^th. There won’t be much between the three horses at the revised weights, but he was having his first handicap start that day and will have gained some vital big field handicap experience. Up 3lb but he remains on a competitive mark I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 5-year-old come out ahead this time.

Of the rest Scheu Time has returned to form on his last two start. Last time out he took advantage of a falling mark to win a Cork handicap hurdle. He’s up 10lb for that success and this a much tougher race but he’s got a good each way chance.

4:20 – A Grade 2 bumper concludes an excellent day’s racing. Last time out Leopardstown bumper winners Appreciate It & Eric Bloodaxe head the betting for this and are at the head of the ante post betting for the Cheltenham Bumper. They look to have it between them from a win perspective and I just like the claims of Eric Bloodaxe who could appreciate the drying ground, his win here came on yielding.

At bigger price Lieutenant Command could give you a good run for your money. A winner of a point, he returned from a 593-day absence to win a Limerick bumper very easily on his bumper debut.  Could be anything and has each way claims if the ground doesn’t dry out too much.

The Rest of Saturday

There’s plenty of decent racing this side of the Irish Sea on Saturday and here’s a brief look and a few selections. Starting at Sandown.

Sandown

1:15 – Top weight Dolos has a touch of class but he holds no secrets from the handicapper and is vulnerable to better handicapped horse but if he gets a good pace, he’s a contender for the inform Paul Nicholls stable. Two novices on the upgrade are Full Flow, trained by Kim Bailey, who has won two of his four starts over fences. He’s a worthy favourite but he’s plenty short enough for me at a best priced 13/8. Joke Dancer from the inform Sue Smith stable has also won two of his four starts over the larger obstacles. A good winner at Warwick two starts back a combination of heavy ground and 2m 4f at Haydock seemed to find him out 14-days ago. Has jumped notably to his right on a four of his starts over fences and this is first time jumping right-handed. A quick return after Haydock but could early bounce back given the form of the stable.

3:00 – Seventeen are set to go to post for this 2m 7f Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. Given heavy ground stamina will be at a premium here.

Agrapart isn’t as good as he used to be but the softer the going the better for the 9-year-old who drops back into handicap company for the first time since winning the 2016 Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. Not without chance given underfoot conditions and he stay’s 3m well. Still vulnerable to younger legs.

Bold Plan landed a gamble when winning at Haydock back in November and was sent off 3/1 favourite for a valuable Ascot handicap hurdle 14-days ago. Only got as far as the third that day but is open to further progress. Stays 2m 4f but 3m on heavy ground asks a new question of this progressive 6-year-old.

Ask Ben has run well on both this season’s runs, putting up a career best when runner-up at Cheltenham. Stays 3m well, acts on soft but heavy is an unknown. Open to a bit more improvement but stable has gone 79-days & 50 runners since a win.

Ask Dillon made an encouraging seasonal return when a close-up 3^rd of 11 at Chepstow 36-days ago. He should be all the better for that run and remains unexposed as stayer and should enjoy a stamina test in the mud.

Big Shark is effective on heavy and stays well. Made a good start in handicaps when runner-up on heavy ground at Haydock last month. An improving staying handicap hurdler, just his 5^th career start, for trainer Philip Hobbs who has won this race twice since 2011.

Another trainer with two wins in the race is Paul Nicholls. He saddles Dan McGrue. The 8-year-old put up a career best when beating Acey Milan at Plumpton in November.  Almost tailed off at Newbury a few weeks later, maybe he had a tougher race on heavy ground than thought at Plumpton. First start since and the trainer’s runners are going well. Can be competitive on heavy ground although his stamina for 3m must be taken on trust.

Golan Fortune was runner-up in this race in 2018, off 2lb lower. Despite being an 8-year-old, he’s only had 12 career starts. Returned from a 559-day lay off with two starts at Cheltenham in the autumn winning the second of them 77-days ago. Handles the mud and has probably been trained for this race.

Coole Cody was runner-up in this 12 months ago, off 6lb higher. Ran well when third at Uttoxeter two starts back but was well behind Big Shark at Haydock last time. Gets the first time cheekpieces today but he hasn’t won since 2017. A place is probably the best he can hope for today and he might not to get the lead he managed to get in this 12 months ago.

3:35 – Classic Ben won this 3m handicap chase 12 months ago and is just 1lb higher this time around. Probably been trained for this race again and has a good chance of back to back wins.

Mister Malarky has a decent chance on last season’s best novice form. So far this season two underwhelming runs sandwich a good 6^th of 24 in the Ladbroke Trophy.

Cloudy Glen remains a handicap chaser with potential despite running out at the first at Cheltenham last Saturday and trainer Venetia Williams has won this race twice since 2014.

Deise Aba is even less exposed over fences this is just his 4^th start over the larger obstacles. Beat one rival at Catterick on New Year’s Day. This will test his jumping but he’s probably on mark he can win off. Trainer Philips Hobbs won this race in 2010.

Musselburgh

3:15 – Twelve are set to go to post for the Edinburgh National.

Little Bruce is a solid market leader. The 8-year-old has won two regional National’s. Tasting success in the 3m 6 ½ f Cambridgeshire National last March and staying on well to win the North Yorkshire Grand National 23-days ago. Up 6lb for the latter success but he’s a steadily improving staying handicap chaser.

Brian Boranha was in third when falling at the last in the Catterick race. Today’s better ground will suit the and the 9-year-old shouldn’t be far away.

Chic Name returns to regulation fences from two solid placed efforts in Cross Country race at Cheltenham. The 8-year-old has been trained for this race. A prominent racer, this track will suit as will the better ground he gets today.

Bob Mahler is another who will be suited by the sounder surface. He beat Little Bruce at Cheltenham in April and he’s better at the weights here.  A good second at Doncaster last time and has a good chance off his present mark if he stays the 4m. One big negative is the form of the stable, as trainer Warren Greatrex is 0 winners from 26 runners in the past 14-days.

Wetherby

2:45 – The Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase is being covered by ITV Racing. On paper it doesn’t look the strongest renewal of the race.

If there is a top-class novice chaser in the field, it will be the Kim Bailey trained Newtide. The 7-year-old hasn’t been seen since making a winning debut over fences in a Ffos Las novice chase 83-days ago. Goes well fresh and all his three career wins have come on soft ground. Trainer had a welcome winner at Wincanton on Thursday.

Chapel Stile, a useful handicap hurdler made it 1 win from 2 runs over fences with battling win over Cloudy Glen at Carlisle in December.  Steps up to 3m here but won three times over hurdles at 2m 7f+ so shouldn’t fail for stamina. This a step up in class but there could be more improvement to come from the 8-year-old.

Well I hope you enjoyed the read. Sorry for the length of today’s preview but the racing is that good it was hard to make it shorter.

Now for those all-important Saturday selections.

Saturday Selections

Leopardstown

12:50:

Cobbler’s Way – 0.5pts each way – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

1:25:

Cilaos Emery – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet Victor

2:35:

Éclair De Beaufeu – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365

Charlie Stout 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365

3:45:

Buildmeupbuttercup – 1pt win – 7/1 @Bet365

Thatsy – 1pt win – 12/1 @Bet365

Fan De Blues – 0.5pts each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 20/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Other Selections:

Sandown

3:00:

Bold Plan – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365

Big Shark – 1pt win – 9/1 @Bet365

3:35:

Classic Ben – 1pt win – 5/1 @Bet365

Musselburgh

3:15:

Little Bruce – 1pt win – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

More selections from Leopardstown tomorrow.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Aherlow landed the place side of the bet at Down Royal on Tuesday. I have had a good look at 3m 1f handicap chase at Wincanton today and I have a selection from that race for you.

Wincanton

2:20 – I do like a decent 3m + handicap chase and I couldn’t resist taking a looking at this race. Twelve are set to go to post for this Class 3 contest and you can make cases for half of the field.

Darlac, shapes like he’s on a winning mark and should be suited to the drop back to 3m 1f today but maybe needs slightly better ground to win.

Reikers Island couldn’t have been more impressive when winning over C&D in December 2018 before finishing a close 4^th of 10 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury. Was still in the lead when making a bad mistake at the last otherwise may well have won. Didn’t run up to his best on two subsequent last season and has been below par on both this season’s starts. The 7-year-old is on a tempting mark if bouncing back to his best but like Darlac may need a sounder surface to do so.

Worthy Farm responded to the fitting of the first-time blinkers to register a battling success over C&D. No issues with the ground for the 7-year-old but he’s up 5lb and needs the headgear to work again.

One Of Us won the 3m 3 ½ f Southern National at Fontwell on his last start 74-days ago. Up 4lb for that success, he’s going the right way but may find today’s trip a bit sharp. Trainers horses are going well though so he can’t be ruled out here given his steadily progressive profile over fences.

Elan De Balme, trained by David Pipe, is an intriguing ex-French trained 6-year-old who won two of his seven starts over fences in France. Making his debut for the Pipe yard today and he could be on a competitive mark for his English debut.

The Kings Writ looked a progressive handicap chaser winning at Exeter in December 2018. The 9-year-old was all the better for his return when a good second, clear of the rest, to an improver back Exeter on New Year’s Day.  Trainer Kayley Woollacott has gone 54 runners and 377-days since her last success which is a slight concern although stable star Lalor went close at Cheltenham last Saturday. Just his second start beyond 3m but his form figures racing at around 3m are 2P212. Handicapper has raised him 5lb since last run, but he must be respected.

Moving In Style all the better for his seasonal return when runner-up at Haydock two starts. The 9-year-old occupied the same spot when runner-up to the progressive Copperhead in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury last month. He’s on a competitive mark for a stable among the winners and looks a solid enough favourite. Sam Twiston Davies who has ridden the horse on his last two start is One Of Us which may or not be significant.

Verdict: Moving In Style deserves to head the market on recent form and wouldn’t be winning this out of turn. Sam Twiston-Davies who has ridden the favourite on his last two starts rides One Of Us who’s going the right way. Any support for the Pipe debutant Elan De Balme would be significant. The Kings Writ has drifted alarmingly  with some firms this morning but has a race like this in him and despite the 5lb rise in the weights for his last effort will appeal to each way players.

1pt each way – The Kings Writ – 14/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Moving in Style – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John