Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

I seem to have gone down with yet another cold. This wet and mild winter just seems to go on and on.

Well no Atlantic storms to worry about this weekend, although is still likely to be showery and windy over the weekend and Chepstow Saturday’s card was been abandoned on Friday morning due to a waterlogged track. So we haven’t broken free of the winter weather just yet.

Kempton hosts it’s best jumps cards outside King George Day. There are three Grade 2 races; the Pendil Novices’ Chase, The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. Add in the rescheduled Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle from last Saturday’s abandoned Wincanton card and the 3m Betway Handicap Chase and racegoers have an eight-race card to enjoy.

The Clerk of the Course at Kempton is even hoping to have good somewhere in the going description which has been a rarity at British racecourses since the turn of the year.

Elsewhere at Newcastle it’s the historic Eider Chase which this year is being run over one furlong longer than usual. A stamina sapping 4m ½ f is now 4m 1 ½ f and with the going being described as heavy, soft in places I don’t think there will be many finishers in this year’s race.  

It doesn’t look the strongest of renewals of the race either with highest rated horse in the field being 136. Whether the ground has played a part or not it’s a poor turnout quality wise for a Class 2 handicap with £50,048 on offer to the winner. 

For all weather fans, it’s the Group 3 Betway Winter Derby at Lingfield which looks a match between Bangkok & Dubai Warrior.

I will get started at Kempton.

Kempton

12:40 – An interesting 17 runner handicap hurdle gets the card underway. Downtown Getaway returns from wind surgery and needs respecting on his handicap debut. Palmers Hill is returning from 451-day absence. Up 9lb since winning a Cheltenham handicap hurdle but remains open to more improvement. Connections will be hoping the going doesn’t ease too much before post time. Midnightreferendum was an excellent third to Dame De Compagnie at Cheltenham 70-days ago. The short break won’t be problem as she’s 2 wins from 2 runs when racing 61 to 90-days since her last start. Capable of getting into the money if the ground isn’t to soft. Polish has really taken to hurdling, finishing runner-up on his debut before going to win at Ludlow 17-days ago. Strong at the finish last time and maybe even better over further than 2m 5f. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark for a trainer among the winners.

1pt win – Polish – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:15 – Betway Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Master Tommytucker a winner here over 2m 2f in November. Was still in contention when falling at the 15^th in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase when stepped up to 3m here on Boxing Day. Lightly raced for his age, the 9-year-old’s form figures now read 11F1F. if he stands up he’s the most likely winner.

2:25 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m

Elgin returns for the first time since July 2018 and is having his first run over hurdles since finishing 5^th of 11 in that years Champion Hurdle. The 8-year-old won this race two years ago and trainer Alan King has aimed the horse at it all season so he shouldn’t lack for fitness.

3:35 – Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m

It may not be the race it once was, but it seems to have attracted an above average field, quality wise for this year’s renewal. Looking at the 14 runners you can make a case for most of the field.

Paul Nicholls won this race in 2015 with Rocky Creek and he saddles four top-weight Black Corton, last year’s third Adrien Du Pont, Sametegal & Romain De Senam.  The first two named look his main contenders.

Adrien Du Pont, a previous C&D did best of the hold-up horses when third 12 months ago. He’s 6lb lower this time around and just 1lb higher than for his last win. Big chance at the weights and the drying ground has come at the right time for the 8-year-old.

Black Corton is another previous C&D winner. He’s been given a 63-day break since finishing a brave 4^th of 10 behind Regal Encore at Ascot in December. The break should have done him good and he’s edging down the weights slightly. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he looks sure to run his race and his prominent style of running is suited to the track.

Highway One O One made a bold bid over C&D when 3^rd of 11 over Christmas, was only beaten 1 length that day and is just 1lb higher now. Pulled up at Cheltenham on Trials Day but clearly wasn’t right that day. If you forgive him that run, he looks a shade overpriced although there maybe stronger stayers over the 3m.

Kildisart has struggled on heavy/soft ground on his three starts this season but it’s worth remembering that he looked a handicap chaser on the upgrade when winning a 3m handicap chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting last season, off 3lb lower. The sounder surface will suit the 8-year-old and he’s not without a chance if back to form.

Double Shuffle made a bold bid in this race last year when runner-up, beaten just a length off 4lb higher. Three of the 10-year-old’s, four best RPR’s have come over C&D so he always needs respecting even though he’s now reached the veteran chase. No doubt trainer Tom George will have aimed him at the race again and connections fingers will be firmly crossed that the rain stays away.

Whatmore is an intriguing contender. He’s just had the four starts over fences winning on good ground at Market Rasen in May. Hasn’t been disgraced on his last two starts in novice company, most latterly when 3^rd of 7 in a Grade 2 at Warwick last month. The ground has been plenty soft enough on the last two occasions so he’s another who will be suited by the ground going good to soft. Jumping will be tested on his handicap debut but if he can cut out the errors won’t be far away.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Paul Nicholls has a strong hand with Adrian Du Pont and Black Corton. If Whatmore’s jumping holds together he can go close on his handicap debut. Better can be expected from Highway One O One who has each way claims.

1pt win – Whatmore – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Highway One O One – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds) or 14/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Newcastle

2:45 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase – 4m 1 ½ f

Not the best renewal of the race given the highest rated horse is just 136. Twelve go to post but how many of them will complete the marathon trip? I’m underwhelmed by the quality of the field but it doesn’t make the puzzle any easier to solve.

Shanroe Santos has dropped 1lb below his last winning mark and won last season’s Southern National at Fontwell over 3m 3 ½ f so is a proper stayer, should stay this far, who’s well suited to soft & heavy ground. Trainer Lucy Wadham is among the winners this week and 11-year-old looks a solid each way contender.

Alminar is 7lb higher than when winning on heavy ground at Chepstow last month. The 7-year-old is capable of more improvement. It’s a marked step up in trip for him today although he shapes like he should be suited by it. Should get a good ride from Danny Cook.

Financial Outcome, trained by Rebecca Curtis, left his previous hurdle/chase form behind when winning a handicap chase at Doncaster two starts back. Was still in the race when making a bad mistake four out, jockey did remarkably well to stay in the saddle. That was a race ending mistake so in the circumstances his third placing was a good effort. He’s had win surgery since that Uttoxeter run and unlike most of the field has the potential for a bit more improvement if he stays the trip.

Verdict: Financial Outcome could be well suited to this marathon trip and remains on a winnable mark.  Shanroe Santos would normally struggle in a race like this but has each way claims on ground that suits.

1pt each way – Shanroe Santos – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Financial Outcome – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Lingfield

3:50 – Spirit Warning – Returned from a 147-day break with a decent effort to finish 5^th of 7^th over C&D 14-days. He was only beaten 1 ½ lengths that day and shaped like he would be sharper for the run. All his four of his career wins have come within 30-days of his last start which suggests he can go well.

1pt win – Spirit Warning – 8/1 @Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s a Class 2 handicap chase at Warwick which looks interesting, but that track will have to pass a morning inspection to see if racing can go ahead. At Exeter it’s the marathon Devon National that’s the highlight of a seven-race card.

Exeter

4:20 – The 3m 6 ½ f always takes some getting around here and given the ground is likely to be the on heavy side its sure to provide an even greater stamina test than normal. 

Fourteen handicap chasers are set to go to post for this years Devon National and I suspect not many will finish the race.

Dawson City comes into the race looking for hat trick after wins in the race in 2018 & 2019. Can race off the same mark as 12 months ago. Good to soft last years but the 11-year-old has won on soft and heavy so the going shouldn’t be a problem. Relishes a stamina test and has no doubt been trained for the race again. Claims are there for all to see.

Vinnie Lewis won the Sussex National on heavy ground in January 2018. Hasn’t reached that level of form since but was a good second at Sandown last March, off 3lb higher. Ran like the race was needed on his seasonal reappearance in the Durham National in October but took a step back when only 5^th of 11 in the Sussex National 47-days ago. Capable of going close off this mark if stepping on his recent form.

Belle Empress won over C&D two starts back before finishing 4^th in the Sussex National return to venue will be in the mare’s favour but is 6lb higher than for her last win.

Ice Cool Champs broke his maiden tag over fences at the 5^th attempt when winning a soft ground Class 4 handicap chase at Wetherby last month. That was the 9-year-old’s first start since switching to the Kerry Lee yard. Up 10lb in a better race and steps up markedly in distance so a few questions to answer.  A sound jumper of a fence. He goes well on soft and heavy ground and on pedigree should be suited by marathon trips.

One Of Us won over C&D in April and also won at Fontwell in November. Returned from a 74-day break and could have been expected to run a lot better than he did at Wincanton last time. Maybe he found things happening to quick over 3m 1f that day and it’s worth noting the 8-year-old is 2 wins from 2 runs when racing 3m 3 ½ f+.

Verdict: This has the makings of a good race. Dawson City has a great chance of a race hat trick but the 4/1 available looks skinny enough. One Of Us should do better back up in distance. Vinnie Lewis is on a winning mark if bouncing back to something like his best. Last time out Wetherby winner Ice Cool Champs looks the type to improve for a marathon trip in the mud.

1pt win – Ice Cool Champs – 7/1 @ Bet365

0.5pt each way – Vinnie Lewis – 14/1 @ Bet365

Warwick

4:40 – Springtown Lake was a good secondat Chepstow 56-days ago.  The 8-year-old is 2lb blow his last winning mark and goes well on heavy ground. Looks capable of winning a race off his present mark.

Cloudy Glen remains a handicap chaser on the upgrade. Beat one rival at Haydock three starts back before running out at the first in a valuable novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Trials Day. Ran much better when 2^nd of 10 at Sandown 20-days ago. Drop back from 3m looks a positive 4 wins from 10 runs 6 placed when racing up to 2m 4f, compared to 0 wins from 6 runs 2 placed beyond that distance. Trainer Venetia Williams is among the winners and Cloudy Glen will take some beating here.

Storm Control looked a handicap chaser on the upgrade when making all to win on soft ground at Doncaster in December but then ran no sort of race at Wetherby 29-days ago. Trainer felt the ground was too tacky for the 7-year-old at Wetherby. Given his age he is open to more improvement over fences but how he handles today’s going is anyone’s guess.

Dan Skelton saddles three of the ten declared runners. His best chance could be Shannon Bridge who won a Class 3 novices handicap chase at Uttoxeter on heavy ground 52-days ago. Up 5lb for that success and has a chance in a better race with the ground very much in his favour.

Verdict: Cloudy Glen can provide trainer Venetia Williams with another winner. Springtown Lake is down to below his last winning mark and looked back to his best at Chepstow last time.

1pt win – Cloudy Glen – 3/1 @ Bet365 & Betway

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Aintree Grand National Ante Post Selections

As promised here are my two ante post darts at the upcoming Grand National. The weights for the world’s most famous horse race were published last week and one of my picks ran at Haydock on Saturday.

Ramses De Teillee – David Pipe

Three potential National contenders were in action over the weekend. Ramses De Teillee was the most interesting of three. His rein broke in last year’s Grand National so a line can be drawn through that run.

He’s had an interesting campaign so far this season with three of his four runs having come over hurdles. Adding a second successive Grade 2 novice hurdle to his CV on Saturday. He could well go for next month’s Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and wouldn’t be without a chance there if the ground was as soft as it was on Saturday at Haydock.

Last season his high-class staying handicap chase form included finishing runner-up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, and he occupied the same spot in the Welsh Grand National. The 8-year-old is all stamina, has good form in big field handicaps and goes well on soft ground. Looks set for a big run in this year’s Grand National and remains an attractive price.

The other horse I like at a bigger price, finished runner-up in last month’s valuable Thyestes Chase.

Class Conti – Willie Mullins

The 8-year-old has only the five starts since joining the Willie Mullins yard. Looked a chaser worth following when running out an easy winner at Tramore last April. That was his first run since switching from France where he had won over hurdles and fences for his previous trainer.

Not so good on three subsequent starts but put in a career best when finishing 2^nd of 18 to stablemate Total Recall in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. Has been raised 2lb for that performance but remains on a mark from which I think he can win a decent staying handicap chase.

A half-brother to the smart Silviniaco Conti and Ucello Conti, who ran well twice in the Grand National, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t go well over the Aintree fences and he looks capable of going well at big odds.

1pt each way – Ramses De Teillee – 25/1 @ Paddy Power – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – Non Runner No Bet or 33/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Class Conti – 66/1 @ Ladbrokes or William Hill (both paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 50/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – Non Runner No Bet

The pair are likely my only ante post selections for the Grand National although there will no doubt be a couple more bets on the day.

The start of the new flat season is just over a month away and the next big race to come under the ante post microscope will be next month’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster. My ante post selection(s) for race will be with you next week.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

General Principle ran a cracker to finish 4^th in Tuesday’s BoyleSports Grand National Trial at Punchestown. Not a winner but at an each-way advised 25/1 it was a great return. My other selection Rocky’s Silver wasn’t at his best on this occasion and probably didn’t stay the marathon trip.

Some good racing on Wednesday. There’s Class 2 handicap at Newcastle which looks the most competitive handicap we have seen on the all-weather this winter season. There’s a Veteran’s Handicap Chase Series Qualifier at Doncaster which has attracted a good field. Finally, there’s a previous eyecatcher running in the Pertemps Series Qualifier at Punchestown.

I’m going to start with the Newcastle race.

Newcastle

3:10 – Fourteen go to post for this Class 2 handicap which has £28,013 on offer to the winner. We have last year’s winner Keyser Soze, an ex-Group 1 winner Librisa Breeze and the pattern class Oh This Is Us. Add in six last time out winners and we have the makings of a cracker.

Keyser Soze, won this 12 months ago off 2lb lower. Returning from a 83-day break shouldn’t be a problem as he has winning form off a longer lay off. This year’s race is tougher than last year’s, but he can go close again if he’s in last season’s form.

Straight Right, on the race in 2018, off 2lb higher.  The 6-year-old bounced back to something like his best when winning a 6f conditions race at Kempton last month. Back up in trip again but if he can settle has a good chance of another win in the race.

Glen Shiel is the forecast favourite. A decisive win over C&D last month on his first start at 7f since his racecourse debut. The drop back in trip suited that day and he clearly relished the tapeta surface. Nudged up 4lb and in a deeper race but he’s in form and shouldn’t be far away at the finish.

Aljari, finished ahead of Straight Right at Newcastle when runner up to Above The Rest over C&D in December. The 4-year-old has just had the five starts so remains capable of further progress and the first-time blinkers are applied today which could eke out the improvement needed.

Verdict: A race that wouldn’t look out of place on a Saturday winter card. The unexposed on the surface Glen Shiel can go close again. Aljari has each way claims in a better race than last time especially if the first-time blinkers have the desired effect. Previous race winners Keyser Soze & Straight Right are both capable of winning again.

1pt win – Keyser Soze – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Straight Right – 6/1 @ Bet365

Doncaster

3:55 – Warrior’s Tale is having his first run since pulling up in the Grand National. In the meantime, the 11-year-old has had a wind-op. Best form last season came when winning the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase over the National fences in December 2018, off 3lb lower. Has good C&D form to his name finished a head second in the valuable Sky Bet Handicap Chase in January 2018. Capable of going close if fully tuned up and trainer Paul Nicholls has his horses in great form.

My Old Gold made it 3 wins from 6 runs over fences when winning over C&D 67-days ago. The 10-year-old is lightly raced for her age and is up just 3lb for her last win. Looks capable of more progress over fences and deserves to head the market.

Missed Approach returns from an even longer lay off than Warrior’s Tale. This is the 10-year-old’s first start since finishing 6^th of 18 in the Becher Handicap Chase over the National fences in December 2018. Won the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival that year, off 3lb lower. Stays further than 3m and if fully tuned up, has won first time up in the past, is on a good handicap mark.

Verdict: My Old Gold is capable of more progress which is an unusual for profile for this veterans’ races but this a better race than last time. However, my preference is for the returning Warrior’s Tale & Missed Approach.

1pt win – Warrior’s Tale – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Missed Approach – 6/1 @ Bet365

Punchestown

3:15 – I try to stay away from Pertemps Series Qualifiers but previous eyecatcher Great View runs in it and he’s tempted me in. The 9-year-old won a valuable C&D handicap hurdle at the 2018 Punchestown Festival, off 4lb lower. Just the three runs since and made a solid seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m here, doing all his best work at the finish to finish when fourth to Drop The Anchor. Before disappointing back over 3m at Leopardstown over Christmas. The cheekpieces return for the first time this season and he could be set for a better run today on ground that suits.

1pt each way – Great View – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It seems to be all the rage for tipsters to put up a Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15. I have never done before, It’s more a fun bet than anything else but here goes.  

What you will see is that I have added two horses that are not in my ante post portfolio and indeed in one race it’s going against my pick in the race.

There is a good reason for this. The whole point of an each-way Lucky 15 like this is to find four selections that are value to place in their respective race. It’s great if one wins but it’s more important that all four place. Well that’s my thinking anyway.

Victor’s Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15

Sporting John – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 8/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

Made it three form three over hurdles when a novice hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. His novice hurdle form is as good as anything on offer from this side of the Irish Sea. This looks his most likely option ahead of the Supreme and he looks a solid each way alternative to short priced favourite Envoi Allen.

Copperhead – RSA Novices Chase – 8/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

The best performance on Saturday came from Copperhead in Ascot’s Reynoldstown Novices Chase. Stepping up in class the 6-year-old stamped himself a smart staying novice chaser in the making with an impressive win. Hopefully connections will aim him at the RSA rather than the more stamina demanding National Hunt Chase. He looks far better value than favourite Champ.

Palladium – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 16/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

After his last win at Sandown win trainer Nicky Henderson said he was aiming the gelding at the race which is always a major positive when it comes to ante post betting. The trainer won the race in 2012 and had the runner-up in 2017 & 2018.

Brewin’upastorm – Arkle Novices’ Chase – 7/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook

We haven’t seen him since making two out of two over fences when winning a Taunton novice chase back in November. His absence from the track isn’t a negative as he’s 3 wins from 3 runs when returning from a 121+day layoff. He needs to improve to win a race like the Arkle on what he’s shown so far but I fully expect him to rate much higher than a 150 horse.

There you have it a 11015/1 fourfold with Betfair Sportsbook.

If all four were to win a £1 Lucky 15 would return a life changing £18,017.03 and if all just place a non-life changing but a not to be sniffed at £198.13 would be returned.

My two Grand National ante-post selections will be up tomorrow.

Good luck if you are playing!

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s hopefully third time lucky and Punchestown can get the Grand National Trial run on Tuesday afternoon.

You will be relieved to know I won’t go through the race again (you can read my full preview on previous posts), as my selections remain the same.

Punchestown

2:45 – BoyleSports Grand National Trial Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f

General Principle, trained by Gordon Elliott, has been in dreadful form since finishing third in this race 12 months ago off 11lb higher. The 2018 Irish Grand National winner, off 8lb higher, has tumbled down the weights after some poor runs but is a very well handicapped horse if reproducing last year’s run. Gets the first-time visor today which may spark the 11-year-old back to form.

Rocky’s Silver made it 4 wins from 8 runs over fences and 2 wins from 2 runs at Punchestown when winning the Amateur National 28-days ago. Up 7lb for that win but a 5lb claimer has been booked which negates much of that weight rise. The 7-year-old races like today’s step up in trip will suit and he can go close at track that suits. Hopefully the rain will arrive to ease the ground which would enhance his chance.

1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – General Principle – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 28/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds – Not BOG at time of writing)

Cheers

John

I’m going to begin this week’s notebook on a slightly down beat note. This weekend was a disappointing one on the selections in front, indeed 2020 has been a bit of a struggle.

However, it’s worth remembering that things don’t always your way on the betting front. It’s easy to get disheartened or even give up when hitting a losing run.

From my experience of running this service for nearly seven years. I know things turn around. It’s just the nature of the peaks and troughs of being a racing tipster.

Anyway, that’s the negative stuff out of the way. There is plenty to look forward to. We are just three weeks away from the start of the Cheltenham Festival and on Saturday we have the historic Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle and the 888Sport Handicap Chase at Kempton.

More on the latter two races later in the week.

The weekend’s racing didn’t bring much in the way of eyecatchers. And with the going as testing as it was at Haydock & Ascot. i think the form from both courses on Saturday should be treated with caution going forward.

Grand National Pointers

Let’s begin this week with a look not at the Cheltenham Festival but at the Grand National. The weights for the world’s most famous horse race were published last week and a few horses who could run in this year’s race were in action over the weekend.  

So, what did we learn from their runs?

Tiger Roll, last years winner who will be seeking a historic third successive win in the race returned to action at Navan on Sunday in the Boyne Hurdle. It was a solid enough seasonal return to finish 5^th but we will know more about him after he runs in the Cross Country at Cheltenham next month.

Ballyoptic showed he relished the mud when winning the Swinley Chase at Aascot on Saturday. He’s a potentially well handicapped horse for the Grand National after this success. However, I don’t see him as Grand National winner as I don’t think he stays much beyond 3m 1f. I know ran well in last years race when falling four out, but I think his stamina was coming to an end at the time. His overall record at Aintree also leaves a lot to be desired.

Ramses De Teillee looks the most interesting of three. His rein broke in last years race so a line can be drawn through that run. He’s had an interesting campaign so far this season with three of his four runs having come over hurdles. Adding a second successive Grade 2 novice hurdle to his CV on Saturday. He could well go for next month’s Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and wouldn’t be without a chance if the ground was as soft as it was on Saturday at Haydock. But the Grand National must be very much his agenda. Last season his high-class staying handicap chase form included finishing runner-up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial, and he occupied the same spot in the Welsh Grand National. The 8-year-old is all stamina, has good form in big field handicaps and goes well on soft ground. Should he run there’s’ plenty to like about his Grand National claims.

Copperhead Advertises Cheltenham Claims

The best performance on Saturday came from Copperhead in Ascot’s Reynoldstown Novices Chase.

Stepping up in class the 6-year-old stamped himself a smart staying novice chaser in the making with an impressive win. Granted both the front two in the betting Sam Brown & Pym failed to give their running but that shouldn’t take away from a good performance by the winner. The way he jumps, and travels has impressed me both here and last time at Newbury.

Hopefully connections will aim him at the RSA rather than the more stamina demanding National Hunt Chase. He’s 9/1 for the RSA, which looks far better value than the 7/2 available about favourite Champ.

Tracker Horses:

A few horses that could be worth adding to the tracker. They are a mix of all-weather & National Hunt horses this week.

True Belief – Brett Johnson

Has yet to win on his ten starts on the synthetics but has placed six times. Since winning at Windsor in October he’s been beaten less than two lengths in all five starts on the all-weather. He was only beaten a head at Kempton on Wednesday. He did best of those held up and if his jockey had made his effort a faction early, he would probably have won. The 4-year-old will remain on a competitive mark and just needs all the card to fall right to gain that first all-weather success.

Pitcher’s Point – John Gosden

The 3-year-old has improved with each of his three starts. Had no problem with the step up to 1m 2f at Chelmsford on Thursday. Sent into the lead, he was only headed in the final 50yds by eventual winner Da Vinci. The first two pulled clear of the rest so the form looks solid enough. He now qualifies for handicaps and it will be interesting to see what mark he gets.

Greaneteen – Paul Nicholls

One of the best performances of the last week, for me, came from Greaneteen at Fakenham. Twice a winner over hurdles last season. He’s a much better chaser than a hurdler and he made it 3 wins from 3 runs over the larger obstacles with a novice chase success on Friday.

Jockey Harry Cobden was full of praise for the 6-year-old after his win on Sky Sports Racing.  Hopefully connections will by-pass Cheltenham with him and go to Aintree as the jockey suggested. One to note for Aintree and he could easily prove up to Grade 1 standard over fences.

Queens Brook – Gordon Elliott

I always take note when a horse put in a good time in a bumper. You couldn’t fail to be impressed visually by the performance of the mare on her debut under rules at Gowran Park on Saturday. A half sister to useful staying handicap chaser Shotgun Paddy. Queens Brook should stay well when she goes over hurdle next season but before then she should be able to hold her own in better bumper races. The 5-year-old won’t be going to Cheltenham but the Mares bumper at the Grand National meeting was mentioned as a possible target by the trainer after Saturday’s race. Wherever she goes next, she’s one to keep on side.

Wiley Post – Tony Carroll

The 7-year-old has returned from a short break to win at Kempton two starts back and arguably ran just as well when 2^nd of 10 back at the same venue on Sunday. He didn’t get the clearest of passages when making his effort in the final two furlongs in the straight. He remains unexposed on the all-weather, just the four runs, and can remain competitive in 6f sprint handicaps at Class 4 level.

Ballyadam – Gordon Elliott

Short priced favourite backers got their fingers burnt as he was turned over at 1/4 on his debut under rules in the Navan bumper on Sunday. An expensive purchase at £330,000 after winning an Irish point in October. The 5-year-old travelled like the best horse in the race, but the heavy ground took its toll on his finishing effort from off the pace. I suspect the son of Fame And Glory will prove to be much better than this initial effort when he gets better ground to race on.

My ‘fun’ each way Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15 and a couple at big prices for the Grand National will be with you either tomorrow or Wednesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Fingers crossed the weekend’s racing isn’t hit by ‘Storm Denis’ as it looks like it will be. It’s all a bit of a pain to spend hours of form study and do write up for races that don’t take place. There are potentially good cards at Haydock & Ascot.

I have selections from Haydock, Ascot & Wincanton and there’s an in-depth preview of the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Haydock

3:15 – Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Just eleven have stood their ground for the race and one of those Ballyoptic has Ascot as his first preference. Two of the leading ante post fancies Truckers Lodge & Ramses De Teillee have not been declared but its still looks a good race with plenty in with a chance.

Vintage Clouds enhanced his excellent record at the course when winning the Peter Marsh Chase here at the last meeting. He jumped well that day and although he’s been raised 9ilb for that win can never be ruled out at his favourite track. Has 3 furlongs further to travel today but has shown in the past that he gets 4m and is very effective on heavy ground.

Geronimo was third in the Peter Marsh. Was still in contention when making a bad mistake 6 out in last season’s Scottish Grand National. He made a winning seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m 4f at Newcastle back in December before his career best effort her last month. The 9-year-old has only had seven starts over fences and remains capable of better still. Gets a handy 12lb from Vintage Clouds for a 7 ¼ beating and needs to today’s longer distance to bring out further improvement. If it does, he’s got each way claims.

Lord Du Mesnil made it 2 from 2 at Haydock when winning over C&D 47-days ago. The 7-year-old is an improving staying handicap chaser and goes well very on soft & heavy going. Hard to say that he’s reached his class ceiling, but he is now 10lb higher than last time and in a better race.

The Two Amigos was close behind the leaders when falling in this race 12 months ago. Has run with promise again this season, was a close-up 3^rd under top weight in the Southern National at Fontwell two starts back and last time finished 5^th of 17 in the Welsh Grand National. The 8-year-old stays well and goes in the mud but may not quite be up to this class.

Yala Enki, like Truckers Lodge trained by Paul Nicholls, finished two places in front of The Two Amigos in the Welsh Grand National and has since gone on to win at Taunton. The 10-year-old won this race two years ago for previous trainer Venetia Williams. Was a well beaten 5^th in this 12 months ago but the ground was good and he’s much more effective with plenty of juice in the ground. Can’t be ruled out here but he’s on a career high mark and vulnerable to better handicapped rivals.

Steely Addition looked a promising staying handicap chaser in the making when winning on heavy ground at Chepstow back in December 2018 and in March went on to win a Hereford novice chase. The 8-year-old has only had the one run this season when last of four behind Santini at Sandown 97-days ago. That run was too bad to be true and he could well show that running all wrong before the end of the season.  Should he run has each way claims if trainer Philip Hobbs has got him back to something like his best.

Previous Grand National Winner One For Arthur returns for the first time since finishing 5^th of 18 in the Becher Chase at Aintree 70-days ago. Has had a wind-op in the meantime and gets to race in the first time cheekpieces. Clearly no issues with stamina for the 11-year-old and trainer Lucinda Russell likes the race 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +22 since 2010. Lay off shouldn’t be an issue as his 4 wins from 7 runs 5 placed when racing 61 to 240-days since his last run. Back to a good mark but will connections want him to have too hard a race on what looks like will be bottomless ground?

Verdict: Lord Du Mesnilis improving and looks a worth favourite. Geronimo has a decent chance of finishing ahead of Vintage Clouds and has each way claims. Steely Addition is another with each way claims if fully tuned up.

1pt each way – Steely Addition – 14/1 @ Paddy Power

1pt each way – Geronimo – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Ascot

2:25 – Domaine De L’Isle made it 3 from 3 when winning here over 2m 4f 28-days ago. Step up to 3m shouldn’t be a problem as he won at Newcastle over 2m 7 ½ f two starts back. All three wins have come on soft or heavy. Up 6lb but has potential for more improvement back at 3m.

Regal Encore won this race in 2018, third last year and won over C&D in December. The 12-year-old seems to come alive over Ascot’s 3m distance with form figures 10P1321. Has been raised 4lb for his last win but is still lower than when winning this race.

Verdict: A race that has cut up badly since I first had a look it earlier in the week. Course specialist Regal Encore will be popular, but my preference is the progressive Domaine De L’Isle.

2pts win – Domaine De L’Isle – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – A competitive handicap hurdle over 2m 3 ½ f.  The ante post market is headed by recent heavy ground Chepstow winner Eden Du Houx, trained by David Pipe who won this race in 2015. The 6-year-old was having his first run since a wind-op that day and looks on the upgrade. Unbeaten in two bumper runs, including a listed race here. He should stay today’s longer distance and looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut.

Donald McCain, won this race in 2012, and could saddle The Con Man. The 7-year-old ran out a comfortable 6 ½ length winner at Kelso 19-days ago. Raised 7lb for that success but he’s handicap hurdler going the right wat and is strong contender.

Verdict: Despite fifteen handicap hurdlers being declared to run I think the race lacks a bit of depth and I can’t really look beyond Eden Du Houx and The Con Man who both hail from previous winning yards.

1pt win – The Con Man – 11/2@ Coral & Ladbrokes

Wincanton

2:12 – Kayf Adventure bounced back to form when 3^rd of 8 behind Domaine De L’Isle in a better race at Ascot last time. A previous C&D winner, form figures 212. The 9-year-old is on a fair mark and is well suited to soft or heavy ground.

Not Another Muddle was a decisive winner at Sandown on his second start after a 11-month absence from the track. Did well to finish 5^th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off 2lb lower. He made a couple of mistakes at crucial points in that race and in the circumstances his running on 5th of 19 can be regarded as a good effort.  Career high mark of 140 now but remains capable of winning a nice pot when gets ease in the ground over 2m to 2m 4f. First run for 309-days but did win first time up in 2017.

Verdict: Not Another Muddle could be aimed at another tilt at the Grand Annual but can win this if fully tuned up. Kayf Adventure ran much better at Ascot last time and is a previous C&D winner and rates a strong contender for the win especially with the first time cheekpieces enlisted.

1pt win – Kayf Adventure – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Not Another Muddle – 5/1 @ Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

My final Cheltenham Festival Ante Post article and completed earlier than expected.

I have also added at the end a list of my previous ante post selections including the price when advised.  Next week I will email you with my Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15.

Last weekend’s racing at Newbury & Warwick witnessed some interesting performances. I will begin by highlighting a couple of horses from Newbury who I haven’t put up ante post, but I will be keeping onside.

I was impressed with Chantry House in the novice hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. Not sure whether he will go for the Supreme or Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Although I haven’t advised him this week, he’s one I will be keeping on side whichever race he goes for at the festival.

Saturday’s Betfair Hurdle winner Pic D’Orhy doesn’t have much to find on my figures to go well in the Champion Hurdle. He must be supplemented for the race, but I will be surprised if connections don’t let the 5-year-old take his chance. In an open year he’s got each way claims especially if the going was good to soft or better.

Cheltenham Festival 2020 Ante Post Selections

Tuesday March 10th

Arkle Novices Chase

I can’t say this race is one I tend to have many bets in but this year I have already put up Global Citizen & Brewin’upastorm and I’m in for a third with Rouge VIf.

This is now one of the races at the Festival that I won’t be adding selections to, even on the day. Fingers crossed all three will run so there is no need to add anymore.

Rouge Vif put in an excellent jumping performance to win the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices Chase. Always in a good position behind the leader he took it up three from home and soon pulled clear of his rivals with favourite Nube Negra unable to catch him. This was a high-class novice chase performance which was run in a good time. 

On my figures only Notebook has produced a better performance than Rouge Vif in the 2m novice chase division this season. The 6-year-old deserves to take his chance in the Arkle at Cheltenham after this run and, on a sound, surface would have a good each way chance.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s eyecatcher article the Kingmaker doesn’t hasn’t been a great guide to the Arkle in recent years, but trends are there to be broken.

1pt each way – Rouge VIf – 20/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook or 16/1 @ Ladbrokes & William Hill

Wednesday March 11^th

Champion Chase

My main ante post bet in the race remains Defi Du Seuil but I wouldn’t back him now at the prices.However, I seem to be the only pundit who was impressed with Dynamite Dollars run behind Altior at Newbury on Saturday.

Returning from a 378-day absence. He looked in need of the run but ran a race full of promise, beaten just 3 ½ lengths.

The 7-year-old jumped well but didn’t have the change of gear to cope with the winner on the run in. If he comes out of the race well, he deserves to take his chance in the Champion Chase. The 33/1 I mentioned yesterday has gone but anything above 20/1 remains decent each way value to me.

1pt each way – Dynamite Dollars – 25/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

Coral Cup

Another race where I already have got a couple of picks, but I have another selection for you now and I suspect there could be another one or two on the day. It’s one of those festival handicaps where you can easily have three of four running for you.

Dame De Compagnie, trained by Nicky Henderson, has won two of her four starts at Cheltenham so issues with track for the 7-year-old.

The mare returned from a 577-day absence to run a highly encouraging 5^th of 14 in the Greatwood Hurdle here back in November. Over a 2m ½ f trip that would have been plenty short enough for her. Built on that promise when winning over 2m 4f at Cheltenham’s December meeting.

Up 10lb but she’s only had seven starts over hurdles and could be capable of the improvement required to win this. Given her aptitude for C&D this looks an ideal race for her.

1pt each way – Dame De Compagnie – 25/1 @ Bet365 & BetVictor (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

I put up Palladium for this race last week and I’m putting up another one here. It’s another of those competitive Festival handicaps where you really need at least two or three onside.

Repetitio, trained by Nigel Hawke, proved steadily progressive in juvenile hurdles last year. A winner at Newton Abbot back in August. The gelding put in a career best when finishing with 9 ½ lengths of Triumph Hurdle ante post favourite Allmankind, in the Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham’s November meeting.  He then matched that effort when taking advantage of his 3-year-old weight allowance to win a 2m 1f handicap hurdle at the December meeting, finishing ahead of the likes of Oakley & Never Adapt.

The trainer told the Racing Post at Cheltenham; “The Fred Winter has always been in the back of my mind and he had to win here or run well to vindicate it”.  The handicapper raised him 5lb for that success which could underestimate the gelding who has a good attitude and handles big field handicaps.

1pt each way – Repetitio – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Here are my previously advised selections.

Victor’s Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Portfolio

1pt each way – Defi Du Seuil – 10/1 – Champion Chase

1pt each way – Global Citizen – 20/1 – Arkle Novices’ Chase

1pt each way – Ask A Honey Bee – 50/1 – Champion Bumper

1pt each way – Longhouse Poet – 25/1 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

1pt each way- Alfa Mix – 33/1 – Coral Cup

1pt each way – Protektorat – 14/1 – Coral Cup

1pt each way – Brelan D’As – 20/1 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase

1pt each way – Lisp – 20/1 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase

2pts win – Asterion Forlange – 11/2 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2pts win – Brewin’upastorm – 10/1 – Arkle Novices’ Chase

1pt each way – Darver Star – 33/1 – Champion Hurdle

1pt each way – The Big Getaway – 12/1 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

1pt each way – Palladium – 20/1 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

2pts win – Itchy Feet – 7/1 – Marsh Novices Chase

2pts win – Column Of Fire – 10/1 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

1pt each way – Front View – 16/1 @ William Hill – Handicap Hurdle

That’s now twenty ante post selections (40pts staked), far and away my biggest ever ante post Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hopefully there will be an improvement in the weather this week. After the havoc to the fixture listed caused by Storm Ciara over the last couple of days.

What do we have to look forward to this week? On Thursday Kelso hosts a valuable card and we are likely to see leading RSA fancy Champ use the 2m 7 ½ f novices chase to complete his Cheltenham prep.

Plenty of top-class action on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton. The feature race of Saturday is the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase which should see the return of Ascot specialist and highest rated chaser Cyrname, a race he won last year.

The big betting race of the day is the Unibet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock with the likes of Welsh Grand National runner-up; Truckers Lodge, Peter March Chase winner Vintage Clouds & third Geronimo, Ramses De Teillee and improving C&D winner Lord Du Mesnil all having entries.

At Wincanton it’s the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle which is the feature race of a seven-race card at the Somerset track.

Oh, and Grand National hero Tiger Roll could make his seasonal comeback over hurdles at Navan on Sunday.

Back to last weeks action and some eyecatchers. I say some, because there are only three this week. It’s usually par for the course at this time in the season. As from now my tracker horses tend to be focused on horses that will be going for the upcoming big spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown.

I shall start this review of last week’s action at Friday’s Kempton meeting.

Friday February 7th

Kempton

We saw two excellent front running performances from On the Slopes & Legal Eyes.

On The Slopes put In a super round of jumping to land the 2m 2f novices handicap chase. As I mentioned after his recent Cheltenham run, the drop back in trip really suited the 6-year-old.

He could now head for the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Which is a race that could suit him well.

Legal Eyes was a welcome winner for the Ben Pauling yard.  The 7-year-old a winner at Plumpton on his seasonal return hadn’t been seen pulling up at Sandown in December.

This was his first start since a wind-op which seem to have done the trick as he jumped his 10 rivals into the ground. He relished the quicker ground here and although he’s likely to get a big rise in the weights for this success he should remain competitive going forward.

The Close Brothers Handicap Chase at Cheltenham could come under consideration although connections could wait for a valuable 3m handicap chase at Aintree that the trainer won last season.

Previous eyecatcher Kilfilum Cross was no match for the winner but put in a much better effort than his previous two runs to finish second. He’s another who was having his first run since a wind-op. I suspect he will now attempt to go one better in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase, a race he was second in last year.

The final two races on the Kempton card were bumpers which were won by horses that should win more races in the future.

Hoi Polloi, trained by Emma Lavelle, won the first division. The 5-year-old was held up is a slowly run race. He made good headway two furlongs out but had to be switched inside to make his challenge, once in the clear he showed a nice change of gear to win by 2 ½ lengths. He was probably worth more than the final margin of victory suggests. The time was slow, but he’s bred for jumping and will races when going over hurdles.

Flinteur Sacre, trained by Nicky Henderson is bred to be jumps champion being a full brother to Sprinter Sacre.  The 5-year-old built on the promise of his recent Newbury racecourse debut. Travelling powerfully through the race he was never off the bit and won hard held by 4 ¾ lengths. There should be plenty more to come from him in the future.

Saturday February 8^th

Warwick

Rouge Vif put in an excellent jumping performance to win the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices Chase. Always in a good position behind the leader he took it up three from home and soon pulled clear of his rivals with favourite Nube Negra unable to catch him. This was a high-class novice chase performance which was run in a good time. 

On my figures only Notebook has produced a better performance than Rouge Vif in the 2m novice chase division this season. The 6-year-old deserves to take his chance in the Arkle at Cheltenham after this run and on a sound surface would have a good each way chance.

The Kingmaker hasn’t been the best guide to the Arkle in recent season. Five winners of the race have gone onto run at Cheltenham since 2008, none have won although two have finished runner-up, including Finian’s Rainbow in 2011.

The race has been a better guide in recent seasons for the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree, with Finian’s Rainbow (2011) and Balder Succes (2017) doing the double. The 2017 Kingmaker winner Flying Angel won the 2m 4f Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree, a race last year’s runner up Kalashnikov also went on to win.

Precious Cargo finished a well beaten third, he did make a bad mistake four out. Not match for the first two home but he shaped like he could improve a bit further when stepped up in distance.

Newbury

I won’t add to the words already written on Altior & Native River’s wins in their respective races.

I was taken with the performance of Dynamite Dollars in finishing third to Altior. Returning from a 378-day absence. He looked in need of the run but ran a race full of promise, beaten just 3 ½ lengths.

The 7-year-old jumped well but didn’t have the change of gear to cope with the winner on the run in. If he comes out of the race well, he deserves to take his chance in the Champion Chase. Where he has a better chance than his 33/1 ante post imply.

In the novice hurdle that opened the Newbury card we saw an impressive performance from the Nicky Henderson trained Chantry House. A winner on his hurdle debut at Cheltenham at the December meeting.

Giving weight to all bar one of his 14 rivals, he only had to be pushed out to register a comfortable win. Now three from three under rules he’s now put himself into the picture for either the Supreme or Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. It will be interesting to see which race he goes for. He has plenty of speed, but the trainer thinks he will stay 2m 4f.

Interestingly trainer Nicky Henderson last time out winners, that had placed previously at Cheltenham and are sent off 10/1 & under at the Cheltenham Festival in the past five years have produced 10 winners from 24 runners 42% +17.78 A/E 1.56 16 placed 67%.

The race produced the first of this week’s eyecatchers.

Namib Dancer – Emma Lavelle

Namib Dancer had finished runner-up on his first two starts over hurdles. Returning from a 75-day break he ran with promise once again to finish 6^th. He now qualifies for handicaps and that’s where the 6-year-old future lies.  He’s only raced on good ground so far and should get further than two miles. I’m sure he can be placed to win a handicap hurdle in the spring, on a sound surface.

Tamaroc Du Mathan – Paul Nicholls.

An eyecatcher from the Betfair Hurdle. From the same yard as winner Pic D’Orhy, Tamaroc Du Mathan ran a real eyecatcher to finish 5^th. The 5-year-old had been beaten on heavy at Ascot on his handicap debut just before Christmas. However, he improved for facing much better ground and was only beaten 1 ½ length at the finish.

He will be nudged up a bit in the weights for this but should remain competitive in valuable handicap hurdles once he’s been reassessed.

Mont Des Avaloirs – Paul Nicholls

The 7-year-old was having his fourth start over fences. Pitched into the deep end when 4^th of 6 behind Champ in a Grade 2 novices chase before disappointing in a match at Ascot in December.

Plenty keen enough in the early stages on his return, from a 50-day layoff, he tanked through the race like a well handicapped horse. Leading four out he was headed coming to the last and was outstayed by Sussex Ranger after the last.

Both his hurdle wins came over around 2m 1f so Saturday’s 2m 7 ½ f trip probably found him out stamina wise. A mark of 142 over fences looks workable when he’s dropped back in distance to a round 2m 4f/2m 5f.

That’s all for now. I’m putting together my final ante post selections for the Festival which should be with you tomorrow.

Cheers

John