Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

We lost Sandown on Friday which is a big shame as the card was a good one for a pre-Cheltenham Festival Saturday. The days big meeting is now at Wolverhampton but in all truth it’s now a low-key day’s racing. That said there are still a few betting opportunities.

Given we are so close to Cheltenham I’m not going in to heavy today as there are going to be plenty of bets over the next seven days.

Wolverhampton

1:35 – Bombardier Golden Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f

It’s a Lincoln Trial but don’t expect to see any horse from this race going onto win the first big flat handicap of the new season later this month.

Likely favourite Fox Power is open to more progress and is arguably the quality horse of the race but at the prices I can let the 4-year-old win.

I prefer a couple at bigger odds in Kasbaan & Rathbone. Kasbaan won twice in 2019 and was only beaten ½ length into second by recent Winter Derby winner Dubai Warrior, off 1lb lower, in November. Not at his best on his last two starts but he’s back up in trip today and if he settles he can get into the places. Rathbone has finished runner-up on his two all-weather starts. Last time out he was only beaten just a neck in one of the hottest 7f handicaps seen on the all-weather this winter. Nudged up another 2lb but he’s not had many goes on the all-weather. Of more concern would be the extra 1 ½ f distance of today’s race but if he stays, he’s very much in the mix.

1pt win – Kasbaan – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Rathbone – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

2:10 – A Class 2 handicap which has attracted 9 runners. Last year’s winner Desert Doctor bids for back to back wins. He’s 3lb higher than his last winning mark but his form figures at the track are 11212. Returns from two runs on the dirt in Meydan and if fully acclimatised shouldn’t be far away.

Wasntexpectingthat has been in great form on the all-weather this winter and hasn’t been out of the first two on his five starts. First run here for the 4-year-old but he’s won three times at Newcastle so the surface shouldn’t be a problem and he need’s respecting here.

1pt win – Wasntexpectingthat – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

1pt win – Desert Doctor – 11/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Ayr

1:55 – If Sandown hadn’t been abandoned, I probably wouldn’t have been looking at this race. Ardera Cross jumped really well to win at Musselburgh 18-days ago. He’s up 4lb for that success but has a good chance following up. A winner over C&D back in November on soft ground he’s capable of a good run and should give favourite Drumconner Lad a race. There could be plenty of rain before post time which could turn the ground heavy but he’s won three times on the going so that shouldn’t pose a problem. At 10/1 he looks a bit of value too.

1pt win – Ardera Cross – 10/1 @ Bet365

Gowran Park

4:00 – The best jumps race on Saturday is this 2m 2f handicap chase. Diamond Turf has yet to win over fences but he’s only had four starts over the larger obstacles and last time out ran subsequent winner Castle Oliver to a neck at Down Royal. Soft ground suits and he should stay today’s extra distance on his handicap debut.  Tikkanen Express was a good 5^th of 16 to Drumconnor Lad at Leopardstown over Christmas before going onto to win at Thurles 16-days ago. He’s up 6lb for that win but he’s got a great chance of following up, if this race doesn’t come to quick.

1pt win – Tikkanen Express – 11/2 @ Bet365

It looks like there will be a selection or two on Sunday which will be the final chance to supplement the betting bank before four of the most exciting days in racing.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

An interesting Class 3 handicap chase where most of the field have questions to answer.

Wincanton

4:45 – Trainer Henry Daly has his horses in good form 3-8 38% +3.75 in the past 14-days and his record at Wincanton is a very healthy 3-7 43% +6.35 in the past 5-years. His saddles Spider’s Bite in this handicap chase. The 8-year-old had looked a promising novice chase early last season, finishing runner-up to King of Realms on his chase debut at Ascot and was in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider on his next start at Ludlow. Two starts this season have been poor and he was beaten horse when pulling up four out at Doncaster 67-days ago.  Returns from a wind op today and if the procedure has worked has a good handicap mark to exploit. Clearly comes with risks attached but at the prices he appeals.

Quite By Chance can never be ruled out around here, three of his five career wins have come at the track. The 11-year-old made a satisfactory return from a 314-day absence when 4^th of 10 at Taunton 32-days ago. Should be sharper today, goes well right handed and is undoubtedly well handicapped on his back form but you have to go back to October 2016 for his last win.

A bigger danger to Spider’s Bite could be the Tom George trained Air Navigator. The 9-year-old seemed to improve for the fitting of cheekpieces when third to Worthy Farm over C&D on Boxing Day. Struggled and was pulled up three out in desperate ground at Chepstow last time. The 9-year-old looks the type to bounce back for a yard very much among the winners in the past two weeks.

1pt win – Spider’s Bite – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Air Navigator – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was good to get off the cold list yesterday and even better to get two winners. That gets the month off to a flyer.

Anyway, here are the rest of the races from a trends perspective that I promised. They cover the final three days of the Cheltenham Festival.

Cheltenham Festival 2020 – Trend Races

Wednesday March 11th – Day 2

Looking at the trends for the first two races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

The results below contain 10 winners from 135 runners 30 placed.

Age: 5yo to 6yo

Position Odds Market: Clear Top, Clear Second, Joint Second, Clear Third, Joint Third, Clear Fourth & Clear Fifth

Runs in Hurdle Races: 3 or 4

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st or 2nd

8 winners from 23 runners +32.5 +26.23 13 placed

Coral Cup

The results below contain 10 winners from 261 runners 40 placed

Age: 5yo to 9yo

Weight: 11-0 +

Runs in Hurdle Races: 3 to 9

Runs in Season: 1 to 5

8 winners from 65 runners +96 (+134.27 BSP) 18 placed (+129.88 each way)

Cheers

John

Thursday March 12th – Day 3

Pertemps Series Handicap Hurdle Final

The results below contain 10 winners from 236 runners 40 placed.

Odds SP: 25/1 & under

Class Move: Up 1, 2 or 3

Maximum Distance Run: 3m to 3m 1 ½ f

Favouritism Status Last Race: Not Favourite

9 winners from 69 runners +52.5 (+74.82 BSP) 19 placed

Ryanair Chase

The results below contain 10 winners from 110 runners 29 placed

Age: 7yo to 9yo

Official Rating: 161+

Best in Five Runs: 1st

Runs in Previous 90-Days: 1 or 2

9 winners from 33 runners +31.25 17 placed (+47.10 each way)

Friday March 13th – Day 4

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The results below contain 10 winners from 181 runners 30 placed

Age: 6yo to 8yo

Highest Class Run: Grade 1, 2 or 3

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st 2^nd 3^rd of 4^th

Odds SP Last Race: 11/4 to 14/1

9 winners from 47 runners +129.26 (+241.23 BSP) 14 placed (+152.76 each way)

Cheltenham Gold Cup

The results below contain 10 winners from 129 runners 30 placed

Age: 6yo to 9yo

Odds SP: 20/1 & Under

Highest Class Run: Grade 1

10 winners from 49 runners +35.5 20 placed

A handful of interesting extra stats in addition to the above.

Only Lord Windermere (2014) was officially rated below 164.

Only one winner Don Cossack (2016) had run more than 12 times over fences.

Eighteen last time out beaten favourites ran in the Gold Cup, none won and just 4 placed.

Only Native River (2018) has won in headgear.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Here are the first of those Cheltenham Festival race trends I promised you. I have looked at two races on Day 1 of the festival.

I have also attached a basic Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide which you can find here.

In tomorrow’s email I will look at two races from Day 2 from a trend’s perspective.

Tuesday March 10th – Day 1

Looking at the trends for the first two races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The results below contain 10 winners from 157 runners 30 placed.

Age: 5yo to 6yo

Odds SP: 2/1 to 12/1

Last Race: Non-handicap

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st

8 winners from 25 runners +32.5 +45.50 16 placed

Arkle Novices’ Chase

The results below contain 10 winners from 88 runners 26 placed

Age: 6yo to 7yo

Position in Odds Market (Last Race):  Fav or Second favourite

Runs at Cheltenham:  1 or 2

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st

8 winners from 15 runners +39.59 10 placed (+46.53)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There is no eyecatchers article this week. Last weekend’s action wasn’t the easiest the eye and I have been concentrating my time on Cheltenham Festival preparation.

The next eyecatchers will be in two weeks and will look back at Cheltenham and focus on horses who could be headed for Aintree or Punchestown, etc.

Over the next couple of days, I’m going to share with you some Cheltenham Festival race trends. The first two will be with you later today.

Until then. Here’s a couple of selections from this afternoon’s action at Navan.

Navan

3:40 – Sizing Pottsie, got off the mark on just his second start over fences when making all to win in a beginners’ chase in good style at Fairyhouse 10-days ago. Interesting to see connections step him up into Grade 3 company today. The 6-year-old is suited to 2m, on heavy ground and given he’s lightly raced is open to plenty of improvement over the larger obstacles.

1pt win – Sizing Pottsie – 4/1 – Gen

4:40 – Mick The Jiver won over C&D back in December off 7lb lower and wasn’t disgraced when finishing 7^th in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. Disappointing that he wasn’t able to take advantage of a much lower hurdle mark at Punchestown last time but he’s a chaser than a hurdler.  Two from two over C&D, both with heavy in the going description and back in calmer waters today after his Thyestes run.

Mr Diablo is on a long losing run which dates back to March 2017 but three of his best four RPR’s have come at Navan and last season he finished runner-up in the Troytown Handicap Chase and occupied the same position in this race 12 months ago, off 5lb higher. Now down in the weights and rates a danger to likely favourite Mick The Jiver.

1pt win – Mr Diablo – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2pts win – Mick The Jiver – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newcastle

3:20 – Oscar Ceremony, a winner at Kelso back in October bounced back to form when winning a soft ground handicap chase at Musselburgh 14-days ago. The 9-year-old has only had the five starts over fences, winning two so is capable of more progress over the larger obstacles. Has been raised 5lb for his Musselburgh win but that was a career best effort and could underestimate him.

1pt win – Oscar Ceremony – 10/3 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Thankfully, it’s the start of a new month. I don’t think I have wanted a month to end quite as much as the last one.

Leopardstown

4:40 – Poker Party is a short-priced favourite for this valuable 2m 5 ½ f handicap chase. A winner at Listowel in September he was a respectable 4^th of 27 in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Drop in distance won’t be a problem and nor will the drying ground.

Anibale Fly has finished last on all three of this season’s starts in Grade 1 company but the top weight takes a big drop-in class and distance here. Granted his best form has come over much further, although he wasn’t beaten far when runner-up to Monalee in a Grade two 12 months ago. Six of his seven best RPR’s have come between February & April so despite his poor form so far this season he could easily bounce back to form here and if he does, he’s handicapped to win again.

Woods Well is another contender if reproducing his best form which came when winning this race last year before finishing 5^th in the Topham Handicap Chase over the Grand National fences last April. The 9-year-old has been disappointing on all four of this season’s runs which means he’s now 5lb lower than 12 months ago. Add in Conor McNamara taking off a useful 5lb and the first-time blinkers replacing the cheekpieces and you have another capable of going close if the new headgear inspires a return to form.

Verdict: Poker Party is an inform and possibly still progressive handicap chaser but at the prices there is value to be had if Anibale Fly or Woods Well come back to something like their best.

1pt win-Anibale Fly – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win-Woods Well – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As you would expect, with Cheltenham just ten days away, it’s not the best of Saturday’s in terms of quality. Still, there’s some competitive handicaps on offer at both Doncaster & Newbury.  Another winter storm is on the way and with it more rain but hopefully it won’t impact on today’s racing.

Newbury

2:05 – Theatre Guide, a former useful staying handicap chaser, he hasn’t won since December 2016 but looked set for success in this race 12 months ago but made a mistake at the last and was caught in the shadow of the post.  Returned to form when a close-up third in the Veterans’ Series Final at Sandown 56-days ago.  

Ten-year-old’s always need respecting in these veteran’s chase. The best of that age group looks to be Le Rocher & Strong Pursuit.  The former was runner-upto Gala Ball at Wincanton two starts before finishing 2nd of 10 at Sandown last time. Loves soft ground and shouldn’t be far away again.

Strong Pursuit is the least exposed horse in the field. He’s only had the four starts over hurdles and won a beginners chase here back in 2017. Showed he retains ability when 3^rd of 12 at Sandown 12 months ago, after a 463-day absence. Well beaten by Copperhead over C&D in December but he was hassled for the lead that day and if he gets an uncontested lead here could bounce back to form.

Verdict: Like most jumps fans I like these Veterans chases. Theatre Guide looked unlucky here 12 months ago and despite a long losing run should be in the mix again. Le Rocher & the lightly raced Strong Pursuit also appeal with the latter getting the pick.

1pt win – Strong Pursuit – 8/1 @ Bet365

3:15 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

As I mentioned earlier in the week Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race. He saddles three including last year’s winner San Benedeto, Secret Investor & Mont Des Avaloirs. They all have chances but first two may prefer less testing ground. Mont Des Avaloirs has likely been aimed at the race. I said in a recent eyecatcher article, a mark of 142 over fences looks workable when he’s dropped back in distance to a round 2m 4f/2m 5f. Like his stablemates he might prefer better ground but he’s also effective on soft ground. Looks the best of the Nicholls trio and is a worthy favourite.

Gala Ball has plenty of form at the track including a C&D win and finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago after a 707-day absence. Showed his well-being when winning at Wincanton two starts back before a lesser effort on good to soft at Warwick three weeks ago. A return to softer ground is the 10-year-old’s favour and he can get into the money.

Domaine De L’isle didn’t run well at Ascot over 3m last time on his bid for a four timer after wins at Chepstow, Newcastle & Ascot. I don’t think he got home last time out behind Ballyoptic and a return to this trip could well see his progression continue. If you are happy to forgive his last effort then you have one of the value bets of the race.

Verdict: Mont Des Avaloirs is a fairly obvious one. Gala Ball has place claims again as does Domaine De L’isle.

2pt win – Mont Des Avaloirs – 4/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Domaine De L’isle – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Doncaster

1:50 – Coded Message an easy winner of a 3m ½ f handicap hurdle at Kempton over Christmas, off 15 lower and hasn’t been disgraced on either of her subsequent two starts in Grade 2 & Listed races. The return to handicap company and back to 3m ½ f will suit and she won’t be far away at the finish.

1pt win – Coded Message – 9/1 @ Bet365

3:35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

Worthy Farm bids for the hat trick after wins at Wincanton on soft & heavy ground. The 7-year-old has responded well to the fitting of the blinkers. The softer the ground the better and although this a different track to Wincanton, today’s furlong longer distance is in his favour. Despite a 7lb rise in the weights he could improve further to defy it.

Boldmere is another young improving handicap chaser, an impressive winner here over 3m two starts back the 7-year-old looked set to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby when falling at the last. Capable of more progress and can rate higher than a mark of 147 but the trainer has stated he won’t be risked if the ground is too testing.

Fortified Bay is another seeking the hat trick after wins at Market Rasen and latterly at Newcastle 32-days ago. Stamina for 3m 2f to be proven, just the one run beyond 3m, but at Newcastle he was strong at the finish and shapes like he could progress further for the extra distance. Mind you he needs to find more improvement as the 8-year-old is 7lb higher than last time and upped in class.

Chidswell, last year’s winnerwas an eyecatcher when third here in the Sky Bet Chase last month. I thought this race would be a likely target again and he’s just 5lb higher than 12 months ago. Jumping will be tested and this year’s race looks stronger than last 12 months ago. Can’t be totally ruled in his bid for back to back wins but trainer Nicky Richards is 27-days and 40-days since his last winner which is a concern.

Despite carrying top-weight of 12-7 Definitely Red would be a serious contender here but his first preference is a race at Kelso.

Verdict: Fortified Bay has a nice light weight and has each way claims. Of the front two in the betting Worthy Farm & Boldmere, I just prefer the latter.

1pt each way – Fortified Bay – 11/1 @ Coral

1pt win – Boldmere – 4/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weather continues to take its toll on jumps racing which means we could see some bumper fields from the middle of the week onwards.

Looking towards the weekend the jumps action has an eve of Cheltenham Festival feel. Both Newbury & Doncaster will be hoping to they can stage their two-day cards on Friday & Saturday.

Doncaster’s feature race on Saturday is the 3m2f Grimthorpe Handicap Chase. Over at Newbury there is the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and another of the ever-popular veterans series qualifiers.

Also, on Saturday Kelso host one of its most valuable card of its season with the highlights being the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle and the Listed Premier Chase which has often been used as a Grand National prep race.

Saturday Big Race Trends

Before looking at last week’s action and horses for the tracker I though I would look at some of the trends for Saturday’s two big handicaps at Newbury & Doncaster. Starting with the Greatwood Gold Cup.

Newbury – Greatwood Gold Gup

The results below contain 11 winners from 128 runners 33 placed.

The one standout stat is the record of Paul Nicholls in the race.

8 winners from 23 runners 35% +52.83 A/E 2.65 10 placed 44%

It’s not often you get one trainer dominate a handicap like Nicholls has the Greatwood Gold Cup. Clearly anything he saddles in this year’s race must be on high on the shortlist.

Are there any other significant race trends?

Age:

7yo & 8yo’s: 8 winners from 53 runners +16.5 A/E 1.34 14 placed

9yo+: 1 winner from 60 runners -51 A/E 0.21 14 placed

Wins at Distance: 1

8 winners from 32 runners +52.5 A/E 2.5 14 placed

Days Since Last Run: 21 to 45 days

9 winners from 59 runners +23.33 A/E 1.4 19 placed

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st

0 winners from 23 runners 2 placed (Exp/Wins 2.64)

Horse’s who pulled up or unseated their rider on their last start are – 3 winners from 13 runners +30 A/E 3.3

Official Rating v Last Race: Higher

0 winners from 33 runners 6 placed (Exp/Wins 3.75).

Doncaster – Grimethorpe Handicap Chase

Looking at the last 11 renewals of the race which contain 11 winners from 102 runners 28 placed.

Official Ratings: 126 to 131

7 winners from 32 runners +43.5 A/E 2.05 10 placed

Days Since Last Run: 31 to 75-days

8 winners from 35 runners +31.5 A/E 1.64 14 placed

Last Time Out Placing: 1^st

5 winners from 20 runners +17.83 A/E 1.66

Distance Move: Up 2f to 3 ½ f

8 winners from 42 runners +43 A/E 1.54 15 placed

The trends for the Grimthorpe Chase are not as strong as for the Greatwood Gold Cup but nonetheless there are a few interesting ones, which should help when it comes to shortlisting contenders for the race.

Tracker Horses:

There are five eyecatchers and they include two impressive winners and a couple of handicappers on winnable marks when racing on decent ground.

Sir Oliver – Richard Hughes – Kempton – Monday February 17^th

The 3-year-old broke his maiden tag at the sixth attempt when putting a career best effort on RPR’s when winning a 5f novice at Kempton.  Returning from a 102-day break and having his first start since a gelding operation. The procedure looks to have done the trick and he looks well handicapped off a mark of 74.

Christopher Wood – Paul Nicholls – Musselburgh – Tuesday February 18^th

Twice a winner as juvenile before finishing 3^rd of 9 to Pentland Hills in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. Struggled on his first two starts this season but returned from an 80-day break and a wind-op to register a comfortable win at Musselburgh. Clearly the drop back to Class 3 company suited but the 5-year-old showed enough here to think he can step up back up in class and be competitive. Well suited by some ease in the ground and can win again.

Oh This Is Us – Richard Hannon – Newcastle – Wednesday February 19^th

The 7-year-old probably needed his recent return to action at Wolverhampton and ran much better here to finish 4^th of 14 in one of the most competitive 7f handicaps of the all-weather season. Last year’s All-Weather Mile winner at Lingfield on Good Friday. A strongly run 7f or mile on turning track really suits the gelding and two of his best four RPR’s have come over a mile at Lingfield. He’s hitting form at the right time and looks to have a good chance of retaining his all-weather mile crown at Easter.

Polish – Fergal O’Brien – Kempton – February 22nd

I tipped Polish for the handicap hurdle that opened Kempton’s Saturday card. And he will have gone into plenty of notebooks after his 4^th of 17 to Downtown Getaway. The 5-year-old made his handicap hurdle debut of what looked a good mark and so it proved. The moderate early gallop didn’t play to his strengths and he did best of those challenging late. But for a mistake three out he would have finished closer to the front two than he did. This was only his third start over hurdles, so he remains capable of better especially when he brushes up his hurdling. A stronger overall gallop would have suited better, and he should stay further.

Kildisart – Ben Pauling – Kempton – February 22nd

Mister Malarky won the valuable 3m Betway Handicap Chase and he looks capable of going close again but there were a couple who finished behind him that caught the eye.

Whatmore made an encouraging handicap debut in finishing 4^th. The 8-year-old was making steady headway from the rear when making a slight mistake three out. The decent ground suited and although he was ridden as a doubtful stayer, he showed that he does stay 3m and the jockey wasn’t hard on him over the last two fences. Won’t mind a slight drop in distance, on a stiffer track, and has a handicap chase in him.

KIldisart is my main eyecatcher from the race. The 8-year-old ran his best race of the season so far returned to better ground when finishing a six length 5^th. Three mile around Kempton is on the short side for him these days and a step up to 3m 2f+ surely beckons. Could do with improving his jumping which was a bit sloppy at times here. He’s just 3lb higher than his last winning mark and his four best RPR’s have come on good or good to soft ground. One to note for a decent handicap chase when getting spring ground.

Cheers

John

Hi all.

I must confess I’m going through a poor run and Sunday’s racing at Naas made for painful viewing. If you joined the service in recent weeks I can only apologise.

One thing I have learnt since starting betting is to not get disheartened and give up when things are not going the way you hope.  I have been here before and results can quickly turn around, often in spectacular fashion. Anyway, I would prefer to be out of form now than when it matters next month at Cheltenham.

I said I will have a look at the Lincoln Handicap this week, but the bookies don’t seem to have priced the race up yet. So, you will have to wait for my ante post thoughts on the first big race of the new flat season which is now less than five weeks away.

There will be an eyecatcher article which will be with you on Tuesday, but It looks like it will be a quiet week on the selections front which given my present form is maybe no bad thing. Keep an eye on your inbox just in case there are some before Friday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The losing run is mounting up so let’s hope we can get off the cold list today. I’m going over the Irish Sea for today’s selections at Naas.

It’s a seven-race card at Naas with the two best races, unusually at the very beginning of the card

Naas

2:10 – A Grade 3 race gets the card underway. Just the six go to post for this year’s renewal, including last years winner Cadmium. Despite the small field it looks a more competitive race than the betting suggests.

Hardline & Cadmium head the market but I’m happy to take them on with Articulum & Castlegrace Paddy.

Articulum, last three form figures are FUF. The last of those non completions came when falling at the last fence to be jumped in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown. He was still in contention at the time he fell. The drop back from 2m 5f to 2m shouldn’t be an issue and the 10-year-old has a race like this in him with a clear round.

Castlegrace Paddy was always likely to struggle on his first start for 277-days in the Grade 1 won by Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 9-year-old’s last five starts have been in Grade 1 company. A Grade 2 winner at Cork back in December he will appreciate the drop-in class and today’s much softer underfoot conditions.

1pt win – Articulum – 4/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Castlegrace Paddy – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – A valuable Grade B novices handicap chase which has attracted a quality field of 16 runners. Castle Oliver comes into the race after wins at Fairyhouse & Down Royal.  Step back to 2m 4f will suit and he goes well in the mud.

An Fraoch Mor, a winning hurdler on soft to heavy, built on the promise of his first start over the larger obstacles when winning a Navan novices’ chase over today’s distance. The 7-year-old makes his handicap debut off a very workable mark of 130.

Mormon, trained by Henry De Bromhead, who saddled last years winner, finished 2^nd of 12 on just his second start over the larger obstacles. A mark of 131 looks fair for his handicap debut although heavy ground would be an unknown.

No issues with heavy ground for Countless Cathleen, both her career win have come on heavy including a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse 40-days ago. Steps from 2m for her handicap debut but should stay the extra distance.

Add in previous C&D winners Best Behaviour & Valdieu and you have the makings of a competitive race. Valdieu hails from the Noel Meade yard which seems to be coming into form after a very quiet start to the year. The ground will be more testing than it was 15-days ago but if the 7-year-old handles it, he won’t be far away.

1pt win – An Fraoch Mor – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Valdieu – 11/1 @ Bet365

3:40 – Pasley has finished runner-up on all three starts over hurdles. The cheekpieces return for his handicap hurdle debut and the 4-year-old did win a heavy ground on the flat last October. Sean Says made a winning handicap debut at Punchestown last month. The filly found plenty for pressure after the last day and there was plenty to like about how she held of the eventual runner-up. Up 8lb for that win but looks the value each way alternative to likely favourite Pasley.

1pt each way – Sean Says – 8/1 @ Paddy Power

4:40 – The second of two competitive handicap hurdles on the card. This one has attracted a field of 23.

Goodbye Someday was an eyecatcher at Leopardstown over Christmas. Sent off 6/1 on that occasion. He was still very much in contention, just behind the leader when hampered and carried out four from home. It was too early to say where he would have finished but given the market support he received; it suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands. Must be on the shortlist.

Saol Iontach put in a career best effort when finishing runner-up to Sean Says at Punchestown two starts back. Ran poorly at Down Royal when sent off joint favourite but was found to be clinically abnormal after which explains why she ran so badly. The 7-year-old’s well being has to be taken on trust but a reproduction of her Punchestown form would put her right in the mix here.

Bythesametoken won a Navan handicap hurdle, off 3lb lower back in November and has since put in two solid placed efforts over C&D. The 6-year-old didn’t get the best of runs between the final two hurdles last time and with a clearer run would have finished closer to the eventual winner. Nudged up just 2lb and should find the softer ground more in his favour today.

Lord Erskine returns from a massive 579-day absence today. The 7-year-old was a progressive novice hurdler when last seen in action. Has won off a lay-off of 182-days in the past so there is hope that that he will be fit enough to do himself justice. and he has a very good record when soft or heavy is in the going description 4 wins from 8 runs +33.85.

1pt win – Goodbye Someday – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Lord Erskine – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John