Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

It’s Downpatrick’s biggest race meeting of the year the Ulster National. It normally attracts the courses biggest crowd of the year so it will seem strange to see it run behind closed doors.

Downpatrick

2:40 – Severus Alexander, a winner of a Listowel handicap on the flat in September shaped with promise when 4^th of 20 at Leopardstown 20-days ago. That was the 4-year-old’s first start for new trainer Gavin Cromwell and the step up to 2m 3f can hopefully bring out more improvement in the gelding.

1pt win – Severus Alexander – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:10 – Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f

General Principle won the2018 Irish Grand National of 8lb higher but struggled for form after that big race success. A bit better recently and built on the promise of his fourth placed effort in the Grand National Trial two starts back, when occupying the same position in the Leinster National 14-days ago. Not as good as he once was but he’s got each way claims here.

Jimmil showed much improved form to win a valuable 3m novices handicap chase at Navan 8-days ago. The handicapper has had his say and hiked the 7-year-old up 14lb for that win. Could still be on a lenient mark though and whilst his stamina for 3m 4f has to be taken on trust, he remains open to more progress over fences.

1pt win – Jimmil – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – General Principle – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

For anyone interested I have decided to send through my free selections from the Irish Racing which is still taking place behind closed doors.

How long that situation will continue, is anyone’s guess. If a jockey was to contract Covid-19 then it will soon end. Likewise, if the situation worsens among the general population then the sport will come to halt.

Until then we all have our part to play. Wash your hands and keep practicing social distance. Small stuff in the great scheme of things but if we all do it then we can help stop the transmission of the virus.

Dundalk

4:00 – Top weight Irradiate improved for the step up to 2m when winning here on her handicap debut back in October. Not so good on her next start but bounced back to form 21-days ago. Drops back to 1m 4f but the 4-year-old looks capable of a bit more improvement.

1pt win – Irradiate – 5/1 @ Bet365

4:30 – Fit For Function won on the turf at Gowran Park last May although he’s been consistent enough around here he hasn’t won on the synthetics since 2016. The 7-year-old shaped like he’s on a winnable mark when finishing well here over 5f last week. Return to 6f will suit and he should go close.

1pt win – Fit For Function – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The less said about yesterday’s selection the better.  I wasn’t going to put up any selections until Friday but I couldn’t resist mentioning one going at Kelso on Monday.

Kelso

4:10 – Pougne Bobbi, a three-time winner, twice over fences, when trained by Nicky Henderson. First start for 732-days and first run since moving to present trainer Keith Dalgleish. A winner at Huntingdon off today’s mark in January 2018 and wasn’t disgraced when 7^th of 22 in a handicap chase at that years Cheltenham Festival. Hard to say how much ability he retains but he’s on a decent mark if ready to roll here.

1pt win – Pougne Bobbi – 9/2 – Gen

My Cheltenham Review will be with you sometime on Tuesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A bit of a frustrating couple of days. Let’s hope we can sign off with a winner on Sunday. Racing will take place behind closed doors at Limerick tomorrow and there is one race that interests me.

Limerick

4:50 – Denham Hana’s best three RPR’s have come here at Limerick. A winner of a maiden hurdle here 12 months ago. All the mare’s best runs have also come with heavy in the going description so she ticks the all-important course & going boxes. The 7-year-old has just had the two starts over fences putting in a career best effort when no match for Cut The Mustard in a beginners chase 77-days ago, the 4^th has since gone onto win the Grand National Trial at Punchestown. Steps up to 3m for her handicap chase debut which should suit and has each way claims.

1pt each way – Denham Hana – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

That’s me done now until Friday when hopefully racing won’t have joined the sporting lockdown. I suspect if it does take place Saturday’s horse racing action will take place behind closed doors which at this stage I would take.

I will send out my Cheltenham Festival Review on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Keep safe.

Cheers

Hi all,

Well that’s the end of the Cheltenham Festival for another year and it’s been a dramatic one that’s for sure. More importantly it was a profitable one, both for my ante post selections and bets on the day. It would have been a better one, if Column Of Fire hadn’t fallen when challenging at the last.

Hey, that’s jumps racing for you and I would have taken that level of profit on Tuesday morning.  I have had better festivals but I have had a lot worse too.

I will be taking a look back at Cheltenham next week in my latest notebook post.

For now, we have racing taking place behind closed doors in Ireland & Scotland, I doubt England will be to far away.

Will the Aintree Grand National Festival take place without spectators or not at all?

How will the Codiv-19 virus effect the start of the flat season at Doncaster? Which is just two weeks away.

Those are two questions that will be on the minds of most racing fans in the coming days with the Cheltenham Festival now done and dusted. For now, we have a couple of decent cards at Kempton & Uttoxeter. The latter course hosts it’s biggest meeting of the season with the latest running of the Midlands Grand National.

Uttoxeter

3:00 – Faire Part Sivola, beat nine rivals to win a heavy ground Leicester novice hurdle in December before improving further to finish runner-up at Wincanton. Struggled when stepped up to Grade 2 company at Kempton last month. Handicap hurdle debut today off what looks a workable mark. First go left-handed, all five previous starts the other way and first try beyond 2m but goes well on heavy. Veteran Theo’s Charm can never be discounted over a C&D that he goes well at and he looked as good as ever when runner-up here 35-days ago.

1pt win – Faire Part Sivola – 11/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Theo’s Charm – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

3:35 – Marston’s 61 Deep Midlands Grand National (An Open Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 4m 2f

Fourteen chasers at set to meet the starter for what will be a gruelling stamina test on heavy ground.

The eyes are drawn to the lightly raced Truckers Lodge who finished runner-up in the Welsh Grand National last time and is just 2lb higher here. Prime Venture was 4^th that day and also filled the same spot in this race last year. No problem with the going or trip for the 9-year-old but he’s 0 wins from 11 runs over fences now and needs the application of the first-time blinkers to work the oracle.

De Rasher Counter won the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury and carried top weight to victory here 12 months ago in the 3m novices handicap chase. No issues with heavy ground and has the class to win this but his stamina for the distance has to be taken on trust.

Irish horses have done well in this race in the past so the mud loving Se Mo Laoch has to be a contender off bottom weight, if he stays.

Dominateur looks a useful staying novice handicap chaser. Twice a winner on heavy at Chepstow he found Grade 2 company too hot when 3^rd of 6 at Wetherby last time and should find this test more suitable.

Captain Drake is another novice who should relish this test. A winner at Exeter two starts before falling at Ascot last time. He needs to improve on what he’s shown so but he could do so and Bryan Carver takes off a handy 5lb. Trainer Harry Fry has had this race in mind for the for the 7-year-old since the autumn.

Verdict: If the classy De Rasher Counter can defy top weight it will be a hell of a weight carrying performance. I wouldn’t put anyone of Truckers Lodge. However. I’m just siding with the novices Dominateur & Captain Drake.

1pt win – Dominateur – 11/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Captain Drake – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Truckers Lodge – 5/1 @ Bet365

Kempton

2:40 – The lightly raced Downtown Getaway showed a good attitude to hold off Palmers Hill over C&D three weeks ago and off just 5lb higher looks capable of going close again.

Tamaroc Du Mathan’s 5^th of 24 in the Betfair Hurdle is solid form. The lightly raced 5-year-old seemed to enjoy the sounder surface at Newbury and if he stays today’s longer trip won’t be far away.

1pt win – Downtown Getaway – 7/2 @ Bet365

Bootlegger is in deeper waters here after his recent win at Doncaster but he’s another who seemed to enjoy the better ground and looks to be going the right way.

3:15 – Drumconner Lad is in the form of his life after wins at Leopardstown & Ayr and can go well again. Pistol Whipped looks capable of defying his present mark over fences if his jumping holds up and the return to handicap company and a sounder surface are in his favour. Legal Eyes made it two from three since going chasing when an impressive winner of a 3m handicap chase here last. Up 9lb for that success and dropping back in trip today but he’s on the upgrade and is the one they all must beat.

1pt win – Legal Eyes – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

You can see why people make the analogy of children waiting for Christmas Day when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.

It seems to take an eternity to arrive and then it’s gone in a flash. Yes, It’s the final day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Friday March 13h – Cheltenham Festival – Day 4

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Verdict: We saw on Tuesday with Asterion Forlonge the danger of horses who jump to their right at the track. Goshen unbeaten on his three starts over hurdles has shown a tendency to jump to his right. That said I think he’s the best juvenile hurdle we have seen out this year and as long as he doesn’t do an Asterion he wins this year’s race. Solo is capable of emulating Zarkander and doing the Triumph/Adonis Double. The more the ground dries out the better his chance for me. Stablemate Sir Psycho has relished the mud, so the softer the ground the better for him and he’s got each way claims with the right underfoot conditions.

2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 1f

Another race which I haven’t found the winner, indeed I have struggled to find horses to place. I still like it though and can’t resist a dart or three at it.

Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls & Dan Skelton have saddled 9 of the last 12 winners of the race – 9 winners from 55 runners +113 16 placed. That’s 75% of the winners from 18% of the total runners. Mullins saddles five, Nicholls two & Skelton one.

Dan Skelton saddles Mohaayed who won this race two years ago and finished 7^th, beaten 9 lengths 12 months ago. Now 11lb lower he clearly needs respecting given he’s 3 wins from 10 runs 4 placed in field sizes 16+.

Of the Mullins five, my preference is for the J P McManus pair Ciel De Neige & Saint Roi and also Buildmeupbuttercup.

Ciel De Neige, remains a maiden over hurdles but was has some excellent form in big field handicaps, was third in last years Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and finished 2^nd of 24 in last month’s Betfair Hurdle. Up 4lb higher now but the softer ground should be in his favour.

Saint Roi is very unexposed for a race like this. The 5-year-old has only had two runs since switching from France. Beaten at 1/3 at Clonmel but left that form well behind when winning at Tramore 72-days ago. A mark of 137 for his handicap debut could turn out be lenient if he can over come his inexperience.

Buildmeupbuttercup has run well on both her last two starts in handicap hurdles but tends to make mistakes in crucial parts of the race as she did at the last hurdle at Leopardstown. Has the ability to win a race like this but will here jumping hold up when it matters and can her jockey produce her at just the right time.

Of the Nicholls pair Christopher Wood looks open to the most improvement after his win at Musselburgh last month but Cheltenham is a totally different track.

Gordon Elliott is 0 from 16 2 placed in this race in the past 12 years. He saddles two Thatsy & Lethal Steps. The former looks his best chance, he finished 5 ½ lengths behind Buildmeupbuttercup at Leopardstown but gets a 3lb pull here and this stiffer track should suit the 6-year-old. If it wasn’t for the trainer’s record, I would be seriously interested in him.

Verdict: Ciel De Neige, Saint Roi and the shade frustrating Buildmeupbuttercup give Willie Mullins a strong hand in the race.  

1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 8/1 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Buildmeupbuttercup – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (Both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) (Class 1) – 3m

Verdict: The best of the British look to be Thyme Hill, Harry Senior but both hail from yards whose runners have underperformed so far this week. Henry De Bromhead trained last years winner and he saddles Cobbler’s Way here. The 6-year-old looked an Albert Bartlett type when winning at Gowran Park two starts back and the finished 2^nd to Latest Exhibition in the 2m 6f Grade 1 at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival. He got the run of the race that day and found the winner just two strong at the finish. Latest Exhibition has some of the best form in the race and a stronger gallop here should be even more in his favour.

3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2f ½ f

Verdict: Last year’s winner Al Boum Photo has a good chance of back to back wins in jumps racings blue riband race. Delta Work has to prove his stamina for 3m 2 ½ f but he’s a double Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown on his last two starts and given he’s a 7-year-old is open to more progress. Kemboy unseated his rider at the first last year, apart from that blip he was a progressive Grade 1 chaser beating Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree and Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. I think the 8-year-old will stay the Gold Cup distance and drying ground would be in his favour. But is Cheltenham his track? Has finished behind Delta Work on both this season’s starts but did get closer to that one last time. Of the rest Chris’s Dream is improving with racing and would have an each-way chance if the ground continues to be soft. Rachel Blackmore opts for Monalee. He was only beaten a head by Delta Work in the Savills Chase at Christmas. A sound jumper, most pundits don’t think he stays beyond 3m but trainer Henry De Bromhead doesn’t agree. If the trainer is right, he does look overpriced and like stablemate Chris’s Dream has each-way claims.

1pt win – Delta Work – 5/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2)

Verdict: The talking horse of the festival preview circuit has been the Edna Bolger trained Staker Wallace. The 9-year-old won a point to point on his last start and is the least exposed horse in the race. Granted Derek O’Connor has opted for the J P McManus runner Minella Rocco but Jamie Codd isn’t a bad substitute.

4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

I’m on Lisp at 20/1 and I think this race will really suit the 6-year-old. Mind you 7/1 is plenty short enough now and Alan King’s runners haven’t exactly run well here over the last few days.  

Greaneteen comes into the race on the back of wins at Musseleburgh & Fakenham. I was hoping that connections would go to Aintree with the 6-year-old. Not hard to think he’s a Grade 1 chaser in the making but will Cheltenham be his track? If it is and he gets luck in the run a mark of 150 underestimates him. Chosen Mate is another lightly raced chaser, just the three starts over fences, and he impressed when winning a Gowran Park beginners’ chase 50-days ago.  Looks on a competitive mark off 147 for his handicap chase debut and shouldn’t be far away. Only 2 of the last 12 winners of the race from 117 runners had won a race in their last three starts which is a bit of a stat negative for the first three mentioned horses. Of the more experienced chasers Paloma Blue looks capable of running a big race.  The 8-year-old has always threatened to win a nice pot like this. Last time out he was 2^nd of 15 behind one of today’s rivals Eclair De Beaufeu at Leopardstown and at the revised weights he can finish closer to that one today. Davy Russell who rode him last time is on Chosen Mate. So, make of that, what you will. Still he’s one I want onside. Eclair De Beaufeu won nicely that day and looks progressive but has a 9lb penalty to defy here and no horse since 2004 has won this after winning handicap chase that season. However, he gives the very much in form Gordon Elliott a strong hand in the race.  Paloma Blue’s stablemate Jan Maat was in good form over fences in the Summer & Autumn culminating in beating three rivals in Grade 3 novice chase at Punchestown. First run for 149-days, four horses have won this off a 90+ day break, off more of a concern would be soft ground as his best form has come on a sounder surface.

Verdict: All Gordon Elliott’s runners need respecting and Chosen Mate & Eclair De Beaufeu are strong contenders. Polama Blue has the ability to land a race like this. Fingers crossed for Lisp for those of us on ante post but my confidence is dented by the form of the trainers few runners this week.

1pt win – Poloma Blue – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Eclair De Beaufeu – 15/2 @ Bet365

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Well I’m on Front View (16/1) & Column Of Fire (10/1) ante post so I’m more than happy with the both of those in particular the first named who is now around 9/2 for the race and could easily go off shorter.

Front View’s owner J P McManus also has Ilikedwayurthinkin who caught the eye when 5^th of 25 at Leopardstown over Christmas. Lightly raced, just the nine career starts, he looks an ideal type for the race and looks to have been trained for it. David Pipe would love to win this race named after his father but he’s 0 wins from 19 runners just 1 placed since 2009. He saddles Umbrigado this year. The 6-year-old travelled like a well handicapped horse at Haydock two starts back. The 3m trip seemed to stretch his stamina that day. He was sent off the 9/2 joint favourite for a valuable Ascot 2m handicap hurdle before Christmas. Was possibly unsuited by a combination of 2m and heavy ground that day and could only finish 6^th to Not So Sleepy. This intermediate trip could be ideal and he does get the first time cheekpiece which will hopefully allow him to finish his race off better. Besides Column Of Fire, Gordon Elliott who trained the winner of this in 2017 & 2018 and had the second & third last year, also has the lightly raced The Bosses Oscar. Started the season with a win in a Thurles bumper and his form figures in hurdle races are 212. Beaten favourite last time but a stronger pace and a stiffer track should be more to his liking. Willie Mullins has won the race in 2011, 2014 & 2015 and saddles three this year. The best of his trio looks to be Five O’Clock. The 5-year-old’s form figures are 211 since joining the yard. He beat Front View by 6 lengths in a Grade 3 at Thurles last month. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights but Front View was having his first run since November that day and is likely to be a lot sharper today. However, there should be more to come from Five O’Clock and if you like Front View you have to like him too as he’s three times the favourites price.

Verdict: Front View & Column Of Fire have been well backed ante post. Their chances are clear for all to see. It would be a nice to see David Pipe win this race and he’s got a contender in Umbrigado. The Bosses Oscar & Five O’Clock represent trainers with good records in the race and are capable of better still.

1pt win – The Bosses Oscar – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Five O’Clock – 14/1 @ Coral ( Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The action switches to the New Course for the final two days of the festival. As with the previous two day’s I have had a look at all the races. Only one ante post selection running today and its Itchy Feet in the first. It looks a tough day with three big field handicaps to navigate through.

Thursday March 12th – Cheltenham Festival – Day 3

1:30 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) – 2m 4f

Itchy Feet was my ante post selection at 7/1.

Verdict: I’m happy with Itchy Feet and hopefully he can hold off the likes of Faugheen & Samcro who need no introduction. Surely Faugheen can’t roll back the clock and win another Grade 1 at Cheltenham, or can he?  How will Samcro react to his recent wind op? Mister Fisher has won his last two over fences, including on soft, however, if the ground dries out, he would be an even big player.

2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m

Not a race I got involved in ante post wise but one normally I have two or three darts at.

Twenty-four go to post and you can make a good case for ten or twelve of them.  The Gordon Elliott pair of Sire De Berlais & The Storyteller are big contenders. The former when this last year. He’s 7lb higher but still needs respecting. The Storyteller sneaked in to the race when finishing 6^th in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas. He’s 7lb higher than at Leopardstown but remains on a competitive mark compared to his chase mark.  Skandiburg didn’t look like winning when losing his place two out over C&D on New Year’s Day but he stayed on powerfully after the last to register what had looked an unlikely win. He’s 5lb higher but he’s going the right way and has a good chance of back to back C&D wins. Rapper finished runner-up that day and has a similar chance to the winner but is a lot bigger in the betting. A Great View was 6^th in this race in 2018. He ran a good prep for this when 3^rd of 16 in a Punchestown qualifier last month but he’s 7lb higher than he was 2-year-ago. Relegate finished one place behind in 4^th and she’s been well backed ante post. Won the Champion bumper here 2-year-ago when trained by Willie Mullins. Has only had four starts over hurdles so is capable of more progress. Welsh Saint won a Haydock qualifier last month. He goes well in the mud and is only 4lb higher. However, winners of a qualifier have only won this race twice in the past 20-years which is a slight negative. Third Wind also won a series qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day. He’s up 4lb and is another contender. Runner-up to Third Wind was Jatiluwih who will be ridden by owner/jockey David Maxwell. If the jockey was to land this it that would be some story. And he’s got a chance on his effort at Wincanton. The 6-year-old achieved an RPR of 132 when winning a Sedgefield maiden hurdle on his seasonal reappearance, he’s improved 20lb and that progress may not have finished just yet. Tout Est Permis has solid placed form in big field handicap hurdles this season and trainer Noel Meade puts up a good 7lb conditional Eoin Walsh which puts the 7-year-old on a competitive mark.  Dream Berry who put in a great effort when runner-up in a Sandown qualifier in December. That was his first start for 392-days. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but looks on a good mark based on his best form in big field handicaps, albeit from three years ago. He goes well fresh so another 96-day absence shouldn’t be an inconvenience and trainer Jonjo O’Neill has saddled winners of the race in 2003, 04 & 12.  

Verdict: The Gordon Elliott pair Sire De Berlais & The Storyteller have to be high on the shortlist. Dream Berry has the look of a plot for a trainer who has won this race three times since 2003. No doubt A Great View will win as I’m not putting up him up today. Relegate looks on a competitive mark but may find herself too far behind. Skandiberg & Rapper were first or second over C&D in January. I like Skandiberg a lot but Rapper is twice his price and they are weighted to run the same race.

1pt win – Sire De Berlais – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – The Storyteller – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Rapper – 25/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) – 2m 4 ½ f

Another race where I don’t have ante post interest.

Verdict: A Plus Tard won the novices handicap chase here 12 months ago and last time out beat Chacun Pour Soi in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Frodon & Aso finished first and second in this race last year. The first named won a Grade 2 at Kempton last time and that will have set him up for a track that he goes so well at. Aso hasn’t been at his best on his three starts this season but this will have been the target all season. He gets the first time blinkers and always needs respecting over C&D. Min, who finished runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing Festival and is better over this trip, 4 wins from 5 runs 5 placed at 2m 4f. Add in Riders Onthe Storm who had a hard race when winning a Grade 2 at Ascot last month and you have the makings of another cracker of a race.

3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m

Can anyone beat Paisley Park? He’s rightly the odds-on favourite for Thursday’s Stayers Hurdle. There is, however, a good each way bet in the race and its Irish raider Ronald Pump.

Ronald Pump was a highly progressive handicap hurdler last season. He’s been mixing it over fences and hurdles this season and it’s his 2nd of 25 in a valuable Leopardstown handicap hurdle over Christmas that interest’s me when he was trying to concede 29lb to the improving Treacysenniscorthy that day. That form is similar to what the likes of Summerville Boy & Emitom have achieved and they are half his odds in the betting. 

You could back him in the market without Paisley Park or each way. I think he’s the each-way value of the race.

0.5pts each way – Ronald Pump – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Twenty-four handicap chasers are set to meet the starter for an interesting handicap chase.

Simply The Betts won over C&D on Trial’s Day, the runner-up Imperial Aura gave the form a boost when winning here on Tuesday. He’s 9lb higher in the weights but he’s young chaser very much on the upgrade and looks a worthy favourite.  Ben Dundee was third to A Plus Tard here 12 months ago. He made a good return action. putting in a career best effort on RPR’s when 2^nd of 12 at Navan in December. Will have been trained for this race and trainer Gordon Elliott won this in 2018. Spiritofthegames was third in this race last year and has finished runner-up in valuable C&D handicaps on his last two starts. On the same mark as last time and can usually be relied on to run his race. Stablemate Oldgrangewood has won his last two and although he’s 5lb higher then winning over C&D on New Year’s Day can’t easily be ruled out in his hat trick bid. Siruh Du Lac won this last year off 9lb lower. Pulled up in the BetVictor Gold Cup back in November, on his sole start this season. The 7-year-old remains unexposed over fences and could easily bounce back to form here. Blazer doesn’t win very often but he’s always looked capable of winning a decent pot over fences when all the cards fall right. Finished 4^th of 25 in a valuable Leopardstown handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival 39-days ago and finished 4^th in the 2016 Coral Cup on his only other start at Cheltenham. Not Another Muddle, a solid 5^th in last year’s Grand Annual. Has only had six starts over fences so remains capable of some more progress particularly over this trip. He’s on a competitive mark, off which he can win races, but has a 335-day absence to overcome which is tough in a hot handicap like this. Livelovelaugh ran in last year Grand National, didn’t stay and has been down the field in the Paddy Power & Thyestes. This is more the 10-year-old’s trip, last season his two best performances came in handicap chases over 2m 4f /2m 5f. You could see him getting into the places at big odds.

Verdict: Simply The Betts is an improving young chaser goes well here and can win again. All Gordon Elliott’s horses are going well so expect the nicely handicapped Ben Dundee to go close if his jumping doesn’t let him down. Not the most exciting of selections but they will do for me.

2pt win – Simply The Betts – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Ben Dundee – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – Daylesford Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run) – 2m 1f

Verdict: Minellla Melody is 3 from 3 over hurdles. She’s tough and only seems to do enough to win and looks capable of better. May find this on the short side but looks the one they all have to beat. Colreevy was runner-up to Minella Melody at Fairyhouse she can go well again but won’t find it easy to reverse placing with the winner here. Dolcita finished third she’s only had the four career starts so could be open to more improvement for Willie Mullins and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was to finish ahead of stablemate Colreevy this time. Floressa trained by Nicky Henderson looks the best of the home team and she impressed when winning a listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Newbury in November. She wasn’t suited by the pace of the race and was hampered on the run in when third to Lady Buttons at Doncaster 47-days ago. Best form so far has come on good to soft so connections will be hoping the course dries out. This has been the plan and she looks to have a good chance if the ground isn’t too testing.

5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

I managed to find the winner of this race last year. Can lightning strike twice? This looks a fiendishly tough puzzle to solve.  

Le Breuil won the National Hunt Chase here 12 months ago. Not in the same form on his first two starts this season but ran better when 5^th to Kimberlite County in the Classic Chase, just one place behind Tuesday’s winner The Conditional, and has Jamie Codd back in the saddle. Deise Aba is 7lb higher then when winning at Sandown but the 7-year-old looks progressive and has only had four starts over fences. Capable of better but needs to jump a bit better than he did at Sandown. Bob Mahler represents the trainer/jockey combination that won this race in 2018. The 8-year-old got up in the final strides to win the 4m 1f Edinburgh National on his last start. He’s a real staying type and the first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces. This has always been a target race and if the ground dries out, his chance would be enhanced. Derek O’Connor is on board the lightly raced Champagne Platinum who was third to Itchy Feet in a 2m 4f Grade 1 at Sandown last time. Big step up in trip here and hasn’t always convinced with his jumping so far. Potentially very well handicapped after just three starts over fences and six career starts under rules. Owner J P McManus also has Fitzhenry. The 8-year-old has been running consistently well in big field handicap chases over in Ireland this season. Runner-up in the Paddy Power & The Troytown. He had just creeped into contention when badly hampered by a faller at the last fence jumped in a 2m 5f handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival last time. He’s just 1lb higher now and deserves to win a good pot. Fingerontheswitch had been in the form of his life and was good second in the Sky Bet Chase last time. Up a further 7lb and he’s another who probably need the ground to dry out though. Kilfilum Cross is 1lb lower than when runner-up in this race 12 months ago. He bounced back to form when runner-up at Kempton last time, shouldn’t be far away again and looks on a good handicap mark. Plan Of Attack has just had the four starts over fences, winning two of them, and finished one place behind Fitzhenry in the Paddy Power on his last start. A 78-day absence shouldn’t be a problem as he’s won at Aintree in October off an even longer lay off. Now 5lb higher than in the Paddy Power but he remains open to further improvement over fences.

Verdict: I think this is the most competitive race of day three. Last year’s runner-up Kilfilum Cross is handicapped to go one better but this year’s renewal looks tougher. Fitzhenry has a handicap chase like this in him. Plan Of Attack could be capable of more progress and can’t be easily dismissed either.

1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 12/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Fitzhenry – 12/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Plan Of Attack – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s too early to be too confident but I managed to find the first two handicap winners on day one and Darver Star & Rouge Vif placed in their respective races. All in all, a solid days punting.

Let’s hope we can continue in winning form on Wednesday. Apart from my ante post selections I’m not adding much to the portfolio today.

Wednesday March 11th – Cheltenham Festival – Day 2

1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

The Willie Mullins trained The Big Getaway was an ante post selection for the race and if he handles the Cheltenham undulations won’t be far away at the finish.

Verdict: Irish banker of the meeting and the unbeaten Envoi Allen seems to have scared off all his rivals with just 12 set to go to post for this year’s renewal. Impressive Ascot winner Sporting John is also unbeatenon his three hurdle starts and this slick hurdler is open to further improvement. As are The Big Getaway & The Big Breakaway.

2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Ten have declared to run and it’s not a race that I got involved in ante post after I missed the 25/1 available about Copperhead.

Verdict: Champ is many pundits lay of the week. He’s not mine though. A good winner of his first two starts before falling at the second last here in the Dipper Novices’ Chase with the race at his mercy. Horses running in Grade 1 chases at the festival who fell on their last start are 1 winner from 22 runners 5% – 17 6 placed 27%. That said he’s a class horse who can win this if his jumping holds up.  Minello Indo ticks the all-important Cheltenham Festival form box having won last years Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle. A Navan beginners chase winner on his second start over fences. He’s not as speedy as Champ but he’s got a good attitude and is a solid contender. Allaho also won on his second start over fences when running out an impressive winner of a Fairyhouse beginners’ chase 46-days ago. A very promising young chaser but will his stamina for 3m hold out? Robbie Power has opted for Slate House rather than Copperhead which is interesting. I still prefer Copperhead who jumped well when winning last month’s Reynoldstown Novices Chase and looks an ideal type for the race.

2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 2m 5f

Not a race I have had much success in the past ten years although I did find the winner in 2012.  I have had three ante post darts at the race Alfa Mix, Dame De Compagnie & Protektorat who are all much shorter in the betting now.  

Verdict: Given twenty-six are set to meet the starter it’s a tough race to get a horse to place never mind find the winner. I remain hopeful that my three will give us a good run for our money.

Of the rest Birchdale is an interesting one on his handicap hurdle debut. A Grade 2 winning novice hurdler last season, he’s just had the one start this season, over fences and Barry Geraghty has opted for Dame De Compagnie.  Willie Mullins won this in 2018 and he saddles seven. The best of his could be last year’s Cesarewitch winner Stratum. He’s not been as successful over hurdles, as the flat but ran well when 4^th of 25 in a valuable handicap hurdle at last seasons Punchestown Festival. Canardier is having his first start since switching to the Mullins stable. The 8-year-old was 5^th in last years race, off 4lb lower and has to be respected once more. Franco De Port is the least exposed of the Mullins runners having just had the four starts over hurdles. A good second to Stormy Ireland in a Naas Grade 3 last time puts him on a competitive mark for his handicap debut. But does he have the experience for the rough and tumble of a big field handicap like this?

3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

My first of this season’s Cheltenham Festival ante post bets was Defi Du Seuil 10/1 each way. If he stands up, I can’t see him being out the first three. I also added Dynamite Dollars each way and I remain convinced that he will out run his odds.

Verdict: It’s a shame that Altior misses the race from a race perspective but it makes life a bit easier for my picks. Chacun Pour Soi has a big engine but how will he cope with the track?  All questions that will be answered by 3:45. I remain in the Defi Du Seuil camp although at the prices I would prefer Dynamite to blow his rivals away.

4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (Class 2)

Verdict: Tiger Roll against the French raiders. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Tiger Roll gets turned over by one of the French horses but which one?  Not a question I can answer and not a betting race for me either, although I will be cheering the Tiger on. Good luck if you are playing though.

4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

I never found the winner of this race but that hasn’t stopped me form having a couple of ante post punts on Palladium & Repetitio.

Verdict: With 22 juvenile hurdlers, many of them unexposed in handicap company and open to more improvement, it’s hardly a race to be confident about. Especially when noting that the past ten renewals have produced winners at 40/1, 33/1 x 3, 25/1 x 2. If I was picking a selection now Palladium would be one of them and at around 12/1, he still represents a bit of value.  Looking at the race pace maps it should be run at a good gallop which could see one of the more patiently ridden horse come through to win but which one? The Alan King trained Blacko has won both his starts on soft ground since joining the stable. There could be more improvement to come and he’s got claims.  Paul Nicholls has won this three times since 2010.  He saddles Mick Pastor & Thyme Hill. The former ran no sort of race on his debut for the trainer at Cheltenham back in November. Ran much better when running out an easy winner at Ludlow 63-days ago. Has had a wind-op since that run and also gets the first-time hood here. Hopefully that and a big field can help him settle better. Gordon Elliott has won this race twice since 2013, he runs five, the likes of Aramax & Recent Revelations give him a strong hand in the race but they all have some sort of chance.  

1pt win – Blacko – 10/1 @ Bet3765

1pt win – Mick Pastor – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Ask A Honey Bee was a 50/1 each way ante post selection after his Haydock bumper win and he’s since gone on to win a Wetherby bumper.

Verdict: Appreciate It created a good impression when winning a Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival and looks a worthy favourite on that form. However, at 15/8 he hardly screams back me. Gordon Elliott has won the race twice in the past three years.  He has three contenders in Eskylane who actually finished one place ahead of the favourite at Fairyhouse back in November. He also runs last time out winners Queens Brook & Darling Daughter who get the handy 7lb mares’ allowance. The former won on her debut under rules at Gowran Park 25-days ago.  She probably didn’t beat the strongest of fields, that day, but the time was a good one for a bumper. After her win connections seemed to suggest Cheltenham wasn’t on the radar so it’s interesting, she takes her place here. Not many horses win a bumper race under a double penalty so Ask A Honey Bee shouldn’t be dismissed lightly despite his odds, albeit this a big step up in class. I still think he can get into the money and who knows he may even cause a surprise and win. Well we can dream.

1pt win – Queens Brook – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s finally here the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. We can look forward to the best four days of horse racing in the world. Champions will be crowned and just as importantly on Friday I will find out if my ambitious ante post punt has worked out or not.

On one level it’s already been a success most of my ante posts selections will run in their respective races and the great majority are much shorter in the betting than I advised, a few significantly so.

It’s going to be a four-day rollercoaster of emotions that’s for sure.

A busy few days ahead so this will be the longest of this week’s festival previews.

It will be interesting to see how much rain falls on Monday but it looks likely the going will be at least soft all over.

Apart from my ante post bets I have concentrated on today’s handicap races.

Tuesday March 10^th – Day 1

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

We are already on Asterion Forlonge ante post and it looks like he will go off favourite now with the going being soft.

Add in the likes of Shishkin,  Abacadabras, Chantry House & Fiddlerontheroof and even Captain Guinness & Edwardstone and you have the makings of high class renewal and a great race to get the festival underway.

Verdict: Shishkin is classy and looks to have plenty of pace, if the going was good to soft, he would take the beating.  Chantry House could be open to the most improvement of the market leaders so can’t be ruled out. Fiddlerontheroof probably needs a real stamina, so the softer the better for him. I’m happy with Asterion Forlonge but If you are looking for a further selection then I wouldn’t want put you off, Abacadabras who’s only loss over hurdles came when beaten by Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse two starts back.

2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

This years Arkle has attracted 11 novice chasers but it’s a race full of quality and could be one of the races of the festival.

I don’t normally have a bet in this race but this year I have had three ante post punts: Brewin’upastorm, Global Citizen & Rouge Vif. I’m happy that all three will face the starter and hopeful one of them will win.

Besides those three we have the Irish raiders Notebook & Fakir D’oudairies and Esprit Du Large and the under radar Put The Kettle On. That seven out off 11 that you can make a strong case for.

Verdict: I expected Notebook to be shorter in the betting and he’s starting to look a bit of value now. Partly due to punters thinking his temperament may let him down. If he handles the preliminaries, he’s got the form and jumping ability to win this. That said I’m happy with my three in the race and given it looks like it could be a very strongly run race which would suit Brewin’upastorm who will be held up off the pace.   

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) – 3m 1f

The first of two handicaps on day one and just a 23-runner puzzle to solve.

If you can find a winner or two in the festival handicaps you will have probably paid for your week’s punting. The hard bit is to find one winner. This isn’t a race that I have had an ante post punt in.

If and it’s a big if, Vindication can replicate his form going right-handed he’s more than capable of winning this. He showed the benefit of a summer wind -op with an impressive win in a valuable Ascot handicap chase back in December. He’s 8lb higher now but he remains on a winnable mark. It’s not the weight rise that will prevent him winning.

Discorama has finished runner-up at the last two Cheltenham festivals.  No problem with the track for him but this is his first start since a wind-op and his first run since December. His form prior to the wind op wasn’t great so he does have well-being questions to answer. Given his festival you can see why he’s so short in the betting for this.

The Conditional won over C&D in October before finishing 2^nd of 24 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. Travelled well for a long way in Warwick’s Classic Chase when last seen in action but his stamina for 3m 5f seemed to run out. The drop back in trip will suit and he remains a progressive handicap chaser.

Cepage has some excellent form at the track. Three of his top four RPR’s have come here albeit over 2m 4 ½ f. The 8-year-old put in arguably career best when winning here on Trial’s Day. He’s a really economical jumper of a fence which is a major asset in a race like this. Only 1lb higher than last time so remains on a competitive mark but this will be his first run beyond 2m 5 ½ f so his stamina for 3m 1f is a big unknown.

Verdict: Stamina for 3m 1f has to be taken on trust but Cepage remains on a competitive after his last course win and given his jumping is hard to leave out of calculations.  Top weight Vinndication has a touch of class and still looks handicapped to win this despite an 8lb rise in the weights. No stamina concerns for him but going left-handed is a concern. Discorama ticks the festival form box but needs the wind op to revive him. The Conditional remains a handicap chaser with upside and won’t be far away back down in distance.

1pt each way – Cepage – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – The Conditional – 15/2 @ Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

Verdict: I’m more than happy with each way ante post selection Darver Star. Not sure I would be on him on him at 12s though.  Supersundae has been backed for the race in recent days. He can run well but 10-year-old’s in Grade 1 races at the festival don’t appeal. Egg firmly on face if he wins. I have been against Epatante for the last couple of months. If there is a star in the race it’s her. On flat track I doubt any of these can touch her but but will she get up the hill on soft ground?

4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) 2m 4f.

Verdict: Benie Des Dieux & Honeysuckle would be first and second favourite for the Champion Hurdle which shows how good this year’s mares’ hurdle is quality wise.  Not a betting race for me but Benie’s stablemate Stormy Ireland has looked much improved this season it’s hard to see her beating the big two but she has each way claims.

4:50 – Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m 4f

The second of the day’s handicaps with 19 novice handicap chasers set to meet the starter for this year’s race.

Imperial Aura heads the market and you can see why. His 2^nd of 12 to Simply The Betts here on Trial’s Day is the best form on offer. The 7-year-old is 7lb higher now but he’s only had three starts over fences and remains a progressive handicap chaser who can rate higher.

Champagne Court won his first two starts over fences before finishing 5^th in that Cheltenham race. He has a plenty to find with Imperial Aura on that running but that was his first start since November so may just have needed the run that day and a stronger run race could see him get closer today.

Earlofthecotswolds has also just the three starts over fences. A winner of a novice chase at Exeter in December. He’s another capable of better over the larger obstacles and gets the first time cheekpieces today.

Espoir De Guye looked progressive young chaser when winning at Ascot on his last start 80-days ago. The handicapper has hiked up 14lb for that success. Has won two of his three starts over fences and was runner-up on his chase debut to Simply The Betts at Chepstow on his seasonal return. Taking that form literally he has a few pounds to find with Imperial Aura.

Hold The Note, trained by Mick Channon who won this race two years ago with Mister Whittaker, has yet to win over fences but was travelling strongly when badly hampered at Kempton two starts back and looked set to win coming to the last when upped to Grade 2 company and 3m at Warwick 59-days ago.  Up 12lb for finishing runner-up but he’s got the stamina and class to go close if the drop back in trip doesn’t prove an inconvenience.

Paint The Dreams is another maiden over fences, after four starts, but if he reproduces his second in the Dipper here two starts back wouldn’t be without an each way chance. Ran no sort of race at Ludlow when dropped back to 2m last time. The return to this trip is in his favour and If you forgive that lifeless performance then he’s a contender with Jack Tudor taking off a handy 5lb.

Galvin, trained by Gordon Elliott, was 6thy in last season’s Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Fell on his chase debut at Galway in October when still in with a chance, Has finished 4^th and runner-up on to subsequent starts over fences. Handicap debut today and has a 105-day absence to overcome. Not without a chance but needs to jump better than he has done so far over the larger obstacles.

Precious Cargo found things happening to quick when 3^rd of 6 behind Rouge Vif in the Grade 2 Kingmaker at Warwick 31-days ago. Should stay today’s extra distance and could well improve for the step up in trip. Top weight to carry here but looks the type to win more races over fences.

Verdict: Galvin could improve for going handicapping but his jumping needs to be better. Precious Cargo could improve for the step up to 2m 4f and trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race. Espoir De Guye would be of big interest if he had a recent run under his belt but he hasn’t. That leaves the front two in the market Imperial Aura & Hold The Note who both have the sort of profile for a winner of this race.

1pt win – Hold The Note – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Imperial Aura – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 6f

The longest race of the four days which this year is being run over 2f shorter than previously but it will remain a severe test of stamina on then likely ground. Not a race I usually take much of an interest in but actually found last years winner.

Carefully Selected heads the market and probably rightly on form and given he’s 3 from 3 over fences this season. However, his jumping needs to improve on what he’s shown so far at a track like this. With a clear round he probably wins but will he make a mistake he won’t be able to recover from.

Ravenhill has the added assistance of Jamie Codd in the saddle. This is first start since falling in the Troytown Handicap Chase back in November. Will be fit enough given he hails from the Gordon Elliott stable but soft ground still remains a bit of an unknown in this company.

Forza Milan finished runner-up to Carefully Selected at Naas last time. He’s got nearly stone to find with the favourite on that running but he’s got an extra six furlongs to travel here which could enable the 8-year-old to get closer today. He’s a full brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur which suggests a marathon trip like this could be ideal. Another positive for his chance is the booking of top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor.

Lord De Mesnil has high class staying handicap chase form and will like the testing ground. On known form he’s the best of the British trained runners and if he handles the track is a strong contender for sure.

Both Newtide & Springfield Fox are promising novice chasers who can find more improvement for the step up to 3m 6f. Slight preference for the former who was probably a lucky winner of the Grade 2 Towton Chase at Wetherby when Boldmere fell at the last. He looks a real stayer and goes well in the mud.  The only negative to both their chances is that horses with 2 or less runs over fences are 0 winners from 27 runners 3 place in the race in the past 12-years.

Verdict: The weakest race of the day. Carefully Selected is the classiest horse in the race but is too short a price given his jumping. He won’t be able to get away with the mistakes over these fences.  Forza Milan could get closer to the favourite than he did at Naas over today’s distance and claims as does Newtide who has top Irish amateur Barry O’Neill in the saddle.

0.5pts win – Newtide – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

0.5pts win – Forza Milan – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A disappointing Saturday but I’m not disheartened. I’m really excited about my Cheltenham ante post portfolio and if you have followed me in, you can be excited too.  Most of the ante post bets will run in their respective race which is half of the battle and the majority of them have shortened considerably in the betting.  

My confidence is high that we will be leaving Friday with a healthy profit that will more than make up for the first two months of 2020.  I made a conscious effort this season to focus on Cheltenham and hopefully it will pay off.

A final betting day before the start of the festival.  There’s a good card at Naas and the Warwick card also looks competitive.

Let’s begin this Sunday preview at Naas and the Leinster National.

Naas

3:15 – MansionBet “GetItReady” For Cheltenham Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

A field of 15 have been declared for this valuable handicap chase although one of them The Long Mile won at Gowran Park on Saturday so looks an unlikely starter.

Willie Mullins has won this race three times since 2010, including the last two. He saddles Bonbon Au Miel who is having his first start since falling in the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham two years ago.  A 725-day absence to overcome but if he’s ready to roll is probably on a winnable mark.  The other Mullins runner is Chef Des Obeaux. The 8-year-old has yet to win since switching to his present stable but ran a cracker when 5^th of 27 in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas. Was then sent of the shortest priced of the Mullins runners (6/1) for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park but he made a mistake at the first and was never going after that and was pulled up at the 5^th. If you can forgive that run, he’s got a good chance here of reproducing his Paddy Power run.

Joseph O’Brien saddles two with a chance. Choungaya shaped like a stayer when beaten less than a length into second by Tornado Flyer here over 2m 3f in November.  He unseated his rider at the first in the Thyestes on his handicap chase debut but remains capable of winning a race off his present mark. Shady Operator is more exposedin handicap chases than his stablemate but he’s got a chance on 3^rd of 16 to Sumos Novios in a valuable handicap chase at Limerick at Christmas. Sent off just 7/1 for big field handicap chase at the Dublin Festival an wasn’t disgraced in 9^th. Step up in distance should suit the 7-year-old and big run can’t be ruled out.

Castle Oliver comes into the race with the most likeable profile seeking the hat trick. A winner at Down Royal starts back over 2m. Stepping up in class he was suited by the return to 2m 4f here 14-days. Strong at the finish that day and looks set to appreciate today’s step up to 3m. All his last three wins have come on soft or heavy so underfoot conditions hold no terrors for the 6-year-old. Great chance of the four timer, if this race doesn’t come to quick.

Verdict: Castle Oliver is the form pick. Choungaya brings some solid novice chase form to the race and has to be respected and looks the pick of the O’Brien pair. Both Mullins runners need respecting and Chef Des Obeaux would be competitive if forgiving his Thyestes run.

1pt win – Castle Oliver – 7/2 @ Bet365

Warwick

3:35 – I fancied Spider’s Bite for a race at Wincanton on Thursday but he was pulled out on account of the testing ground. The 8-year-old had looked a promising novice chase early last season, finishing runner-up to King of Realms on his chase debut at Ascot and was in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider on his next start at Ludlow. Two starts this season have been poor and he was beaten horse when pulling up four out at Doncaster 67-days ago.  Returns from a wind op today and if the procedure has worked has a good handicap mark to exploit. Clearly comes with risks attached but Richard Johnson takes the ride and he’s a contender here if the rain stays away.

Fleminport has yet to win on his seven starts over fences but did put in put in a career best when 4^th here 46-days ago. He shaped that day like he would be suited by today’s 3m 5f trip. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are replaced by the first-time blinkers and if he jumps better can’t be ruled out. Has been supported in the early bird market which suggests a big run is expected.

Echo Watt come into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Uttoxeter & Fontwell. Stays three miles as he showed at Uttoxeter. He’s looked a much-improved horse since going over fences and is now 2 wins from 3 runs. Takes a big step up in trip from Fontwell and if his stamina holds out 6-year-old can’t be discounted despite a 6lb rise in the weights.

Verdict: Spider’s Bite could be a very well handicapped horse. It’s not hard to think Fleminport could find improvement for a step up to a marathon trip. Echo Watt has a nice profile and has only had three starts over fences. If he stays 3m 5f he can win again.

1pt win – Echo Watt – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:40 – Closing Ceremony was an eyecatcher early in the season and then ran really well for a long way at Haydock his favourite track when last seen in action 78-days ago but was pulled up coming to two out. Jockey reported the horse had lost in action. He might have reached the veteran stage but as he showed last season, he’s capable of winning a handicap hurdle on a flat speed favouring track. Questions to answer after his Haydock run but he’s had a break and he’s 5 wins from 11 runs +23.41 6 placed when racing within 75-days of his last start. Each way claims if he bounces back to last seasons best form.

0.5pts each way – Closing Ceremony – 20/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John