Hi all,
A nice way to end the weekend and the first week since the return of racing with a Newmarket double courtesy of Jabbarockie (11/1) & West End Charmer (13/2).
The first few weeks are inevitably going to be tough on the betting front so to end week one with a profit is pleasing.
There are no selections today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Smokey Bear battled on to win at Newmarket and a best priced 5/1 meant not much damage was done on the day.
It’s not often you get Sunday racing like todays. Not only is it the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket but Haydock also hosts a bumper ten race card with two Group races, including the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes which has been moved from it’s normal venue Sandown.
Let’s start today’s betting preview at Newmarket.
2:25 – Davydenko made four from five last season when winning at Doncaster in September. That was the 4-year-old’s first run over 1m 2f and he’s capable of more improvement over the distance. He won first time up last season so should be ready roll after a 269-days absence. Good Birthday was an improver over this distance last season and ended last season with arguably a career best when 3rd of 30 in the Cambridgeshire. Races of the same mark here and the easing of the ground will be in his favour. West End Charmer represents the inform Mark Johnston yard. The 4-year-old won two of his four starts last season. Now up 10lb for an easy win at Doncaster in June. A prominent racer, the track should suit and he could get the run of the race out in front. William Buick is a positive jockey booking.
3:35 – The first fillies classic the of the season the Qipco 1000 Guineas. A field of 15 have been declared and it looks a strong renewal of the race if all main contenders have trained on.
Quadrilateral has been the ante post favourite for the race but she’s been weak in the betting over the last 24 hours. Last year’s Fillies Mile winner over C&D it was her stamina & battling attitude that won that race. The ease in the ground will be in her favour and she clearly won’t lack for stamina. I think she will take the beating if she’s improved over the winter.
Aidan O’Brien has only bought over Love for the race. was just behind Quadrilateral in third in the Fillies Mile. The daughter of Galileo had previously beaten Daahyeh in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh. More ease in the ground may not be to her liking though and I fancy Quadrilateral will confirm form with her. Feng
Millisle put in a career best when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. She got outpaced at halfway before battling on for a hard-fought success. The further they went the stronger she looked that day. Being by sprinter Starspangledbanner there have to be stamina doubts about the mile but on the dam side she’s closely related to horses to that did stay 1m+. Millisle has the build of a horse that should stay further and if she’s trained on she’s going to go close.
Cloak Of Spirits is highly regarded by trainer Richard Hannon. The daughter of Invincible Spirit had decent juvenile form and her third placed effort behind Daahyeh in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes looks solid enough. She’s got each way claims although you would like her yard to be in better form since the return.
Verdict: Millisle was doing her best at the finish when winning the Cheveley Park last Autumn and should get the mile. However, I think she might just find a stronger stayer in Quadrilateral who remains unbeaten after three starts and may have a bit more scope for improvement than the Irish filly.
6:30 – I’mgoing to take a chance with National Anthem in this 5f sprint handicap. The 5-year-old returned from a 417- day absence and a wind operation to win three times on the fibresand at Southwell, including two over the minimum trip. He’s been gelded since the last of those wins and the first time cheekpieces are applied for just his second start on grass. This only his 8th career start so his relatively lightly raced for his age and if he’s as effective on turf he shouldn’t be far away here. Jabbarockie seemed to improve last season as a 6-year-old and put in a career best when making all to win at Musselburgh in August. Up 7lb for that win makes life difficult but William Buick is an eye-catching jockey booking and the gelding has finished runner-up on his seasonal return for the last two years.
1pt win – National Anthem – NR
12:55 – Country, trained by William Haggas, notched a hat trick of wins last season before running below par on his final two starts. Drop back to 1m 2f will suit the 4-year-old who has scope more progress this season. The trainer has a good record with older handicapper at the track that are returned 8/1 & under – 6 winners from 13 runners 46% +11.47 8 placed 62%.
1:30 – London Arch won on his second career start at Newcastle in December and put in a career best when runner-up under a penalty at Lingfield 95-days ago. Has the potential for more progress, now going handicapping. First start on grass for the 3-year-old but trainer Charlie Fellowes has a decent record with his 3-year-old handicappers at Haydock -3 winners from 9 runners 33% +7 in the past 5-years.
3:15 – Happy Power can hopefully continue the good form of the Andrew Balding yard in this 7f Listed race. A winner first time up last season before finishing a close up third in this race. The 4-year-old was probably slightly flattered by his two-length 4th in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last August but a reproduction of last years best form puts him firmly in contention.
4:25 – Maid In India has to give weight away here having improved to a win a 5f, Group 3 at Newbury on her final start of 2019. The 6-year-old seems to be ground versatile, is 2 wins from 3 here, including one over C&D. Catching her fresh seems to be best as she 4 wins from 4 runs +55.50 when racing off a 90+day lay off.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
A couple of big days racing ahead. It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket. On Saturday it’s the 2000 Guineas and on Sunday the fillies take centre stage with the 1000 Guineas.
Today it’s the first time since the return of racing that there will be three meetings. Besides Newmarket there are fixtures at Newcastle & Lingfield.
As well as the Guineas meeting, ITV Racing will be covering three races at Newcastle, including the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes which is normally run at Ascot.
A lot to cover today so I don’t have the time to go into things in too much detail but I have selections from both Newmarket & Newcastle.
Let’s begin the first Saturday betting preview of the flat season, at where else but Newmarket which has a bumper nine race card to enjoy or endure depending how the betting goes.
There were some heavy showers at Newmarket on Friday and more are forecast for Saturday. They shouldn’t ease ground too much and as horses will be running on fresh ground the going should be almost perfect.
1:15 – The action gets underway with a 5f Class 2 handicap for which 12 runners have been declared.
Count D’orsey improved with each of his last four starts last Autumn winning at Ripon and ending the season with a decisive success in the Catterick Dash. Up 5lb in the weights for that latter win but looks the sort to continue to improve as a 4-year-old. Both those wins came with soft in the going description so if he’s as effective on a sounder surface seems he’s the one they all have beat. James Doyle is an eye-catching jockey having his first ride for trainer Tim Easterby.
3:35 – The first colt’s classic the Qipco 2000 Guineas has attracted a field of 15 runners.
Last year’s top juvenile Pinatubo is a hot favourite for the race. An almost freakishly top 2-year-old. The best for 25 years. He will be something special if he’s improved over the winter. He looked a shade small last year which adds to the intrigue as to how well he’s trained on. If he has then It’s hard to see him getting beat.
Kenzai Warrior a so ofn French 2000 Guineas and Breeders Cup Mile winner Karakontie. The colt won both his starts last season. Making all to win on his racecourse debut at Salisbury before going onto win the rearranged Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newmarket in November. It was heavy ground that day but he showed a good attitude inside the final two furlongs to gain battling success. The colt hails from an unfashionable yard (Roger Teal) which means he should go off a decent price. He handles the track and worth remembering the trainer had the runner-up in the race in 2018.
Aidan O’Brien brings over four colts from Ireland. The one that interests me most isn’t his first-string Arizona but Wichita. The colt had impressed when a seven-length winner of the Group 3 Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket last September. That success prompted connections to supplement him for the Dewhurst Stakes. The son of No Nay Never seemed to resent the soft ground but wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4 ¾ length third to Pinatubo. With the required improvement I can see him giving Pinatubo a race should he get decent ground.
Verdict: Hard to look beyond Pinatubo in truth. I’m expecting better from Wichita this season and on better ground he should get closer to the favourite than he did in the Dewhurst. At bigger odds the unbeaten Kenzai Warrior can get into places for a trainer who had a big race win here on Friday.
4:10 – Exec Chef was a multiple winner in 2018 but found life tougher last season off his lofty mark Despite not winning last year he put in some really good efforts in defeat last summer, including when runner-up in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance. His form tailed off in the second half of the season which means he’s dropped to a winnable mark again. His best form on RPR’s has come over 1m 1f/ 1m 2f but if he gets a strongly run race, he’s handicapped to go close.
5:20 – Jouska a winner of a Sandown maiden on her second career start last July. The filly ended last season when putting up a career best to finish a ¾ length 3rd of 12 here in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes. A big strong filly she should make up into a decent sprinter this season and should stay 6f < Capable of a bold show if fully tuned up for her return.
Smokey Bear built on the promise of his first two starts last year when winning at Newbury & Kempton in the Autumn. The son of Kodiac makes his handicap debut off a workable mark of 87 and looks to have a good chance of making it a winning one.
5:55 – Another competitive handicap concludes the 2000 Guineas card. There may only be nine declared runners but you can make some sort of case for all of them.
Ralph Beckett horses seem to be needing the run which puts me slightly off C&D winner Rock Eagle who ran only once in 2019 and is having his first run for 378-days. He can win races of his present mark but I’m not sure it will be today.
Rise Hall won twice last yearat around 1m 2f, including over the July Course. He ran just as well when 4th in a big field handicap at York’s Ebor Meeting. A son of Frankel he races like he will get 1m 4f, even if his pedigree raises doubts. Just 2lb higher than his last winning mark, he did win first time up last season and if he stays can go close.
2:40 – The Group 3 Sagaro Stakes, normally run at Ascot, is the highlight of the Newcastle card. A Gold Cup Trial, it doesn’t normally attract a big field of stayers but this year 11 have been declared to run and it looks a competitive renewal.
Withhold is one from one here having won the 2018 Northumberland Plate over C&D. He won that race off a 259-day break and also won first time up at Newbury last July so he should be fit enough to himself justice today. The cheekpieces he’s worn since winning the 2017 Cesarewitch are replaced by the first-time blinkers. If the change of headgear works, he’s a major player.
Ispolini won the German St Leger on his final start last season but his best form of 2019 came when he finished runner-up to stablemate Cross Counter in the Dubai Cup at Meydan over 2m. A winner of his one start on the all-weather at Kempton if he takes to the Tapeta he’s unexposed as a stayer.
Prince Of Arran finished runner-up to Withhold in the Northumberland Plate, He went Down Under in the autumn winning the Geelong Cup over 1m 4f before finishing runner-up in the Melbourne Cup. He’s a definite contender if fit enough although I suspect another tilt at the Melbourne Cup will surely be his main target for the year.
Royal Line has had his training problems but at his best he’s not far off Group 1 standard over staying trips. He’s won fresh in the past so should be ready to go for his first since November. The 6-year-old won the Group 3 September Stakes on the polytrack at Kempton so should be fine on the surface. his sire Dubawi is 11 winners from 22 runners 15 placed with his progeny here in non-handicaps. If he stays the extended 2m he’s a major player.
Mark Johnson trained last years winner he saddles three Nayef Road, Mildenberger & Kings Advice. The first two named look to have his best chance. Nayef Road won a Group 3 at Goodwood and was third in last year’s St Leger. If he stays 2m and handles the surface won’t be far away at the finish. Mildenberger has won his last two starts, both over two miles on the polytrack, and has potential as a stayer. The track will suit and he’s one for the shortlist.
Verdict: Withhold could get the run of the race like he did when winning the Northumberland Plate here. Provided the jockey on Royal Line times his run properly then he looks to be the one to be with.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
The racing moves into turbo class wise on Friday. Just the two fixtures but both are full of quality.
At Newmarket the Guineas Meeting continues. The feature race of a ten-race card is the first Group 1 of the season the Coronation Cup which is usually run at Epsom. The race has attracted a decent field including the likes of Ghaiyyath, Stradivarius and last years winner Defoe. The support card includes the Group 3 Abernant Stakes, which Brando bids to win the race for the third time in the last four years, and four competitive looking handicaps.
The other meeting takes place at Lingfield. The feature races of a nine-race card are the Lingfield Derby & Oaks Trials. Both those races will be run in the turf but the rest of the race will be run on the all-weather.
I’m concentrating on Newmarket and the handicaps for today’s selections.
1:50 – Ten are set to go to post for this 6f Class 2 handicap, It looks the most competitive handicaps since racing’s resumption and you make a case for most of the field.
The Ed Walker trained Swindler heads the ante post market. The lightly raced 4-year-old only had three starts last season winning twice at Ascot on good to firm ground. He’s a bit quirky as he showed when hanging left when winning at Ascot in September but is a class horse when putting it all together. Up 6lb for his last win but he could be capable of more progress this season. Given how well he goes at Ascot you would think this could be a good prep for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot.
Dazzling Dan is next in the betting. The 4-year-old won over C&D last May and later in the season won over 6f on the July Course, beating subsequent Portland Handicap winner Oxted in the process. Just touched off on his seasonal reappearance, so he goes well fresh and as I mentioned yesterday, we know trainer Pam Sly can prepare one off a long layoff.
Pass The Vino won a 20 runner handicap at the July Meeting last year and ran to even better form figures when runner-up at the same venue and Ascot. Form tailed off later in the season. If the break has freshened, him up he can be competitive.
Amanda Perrett saddles Open Wide & Tinto. The former won at Windsor in June and then finished runner-up on his next three starts. The 6-year-old subsequently finished a length third to Swindler at Ascot and gets 5lb from that one today. Needs to be produced as late as possible but not handicapped out of it if the race is run to suit and he’s fit enough (has gone well fresh in the past). He just win often enough for me. Tinto won three times last season (two in the autumn). The 4-year-old looks to have a similar chance to his stablemate.
Summerghand & Flavius Titus ran against each other twice over C&D last Spring. The latter beat the former on the first occasion but Summerghand finished one place in front on their next start. Flavius Titus has since been sold and is now with Jedd O’Keeffe. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the weights although Summerghand did run respectably at Meydan during the winter and may have a slight fitness advantage. Flavius Titus goes well fresh – 1 win from 3 runs 2 placed when returning from a 121 to 365-day absence, goes well at the track and is 3 wins from 5 60% +14 on good to firm ground between April & June.
Verdict: Swindler still looks on a winnable mark but I wonder if the Wokingham is main early season target. Looks the most likely winner but look plenty short enough. It will be interesting to see how Jedd O’Keeffe does with Flavius Titus who is just 2lb above his last winning mark and goes well over C&D.
4:10 – Top weight Skymax won here as 2-year-old, so handles the track, and put in a career best effort when 4th of 12 to Hamish in the Melrose Handicap at York in August. Not handicapped out of things if fit enough for his seasonal reappearance but is vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field.
Severance’s sole career win came as a 2-year-old but he put in a couple of decent efforts last season which bring him into contention, including when 6th of 16 in the valuable King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. Trip suits the 4-year-old and he needs respecting although he may prefer a bit more give in the ground.
The lightly raced Look Closely, Dubai Instinct & Edinburgh Castle appeal as possible improvers as 4-year-olds.
Look Closely, trained by Roger Varian, ran just four times last season and won a Leicester novice on his final start. Looks capable of more progress and winning races now going handicapping for the first time.
Dubai Instinct won two of his five starts last year, winning a Nottingham maiden and a Sandown handicap in August. Highly regarded by trainer Brian Meehan who described him as “progressive and he ought to be even better next year” after his Sandown win. Steps up to 1m 4f today, should stay, and Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking.
Edinburgh Castle, hails from the very much inform Andrew Balding yard. He just had the three starts last season winning at Epsom on heavy ground on his second start before finishing a close-up 3rd of 9 at Chelmsford. By Sea The Stars he should improve for the step up to 1m4f on pedigree and makes his handicap debut off a workable mark of 82.
Grandee is one of the more exposed of the twelve runners but he looks on a decent handicap mark. The 6-year-old can usually be relied on to give his running and a reproduction of his 2 ¼ length, 4th of 11 at York last May, off 5lb higher puts him firmly in the mix. Stays further than 1m 4f and if they go the forecast decent gallop then the race could be run to suit a hold up performer like him.
Verdict: Edinburgh Castle, Dubai Instinct & Look Closely are sure to be popular in the market given their lightly raced profiles. However, it may pay to go with one of the more exposed horses in the line up in Grandee who get the race run to suit.
6:30 – Likely favourite Highland Dress has only had five career starts and won a 6f handicap at Southwell in March. Up 5lb for that win and back on turf today. Capable better of still if the 4-year-old takes to the grass.
Danzan has moved from Andrew Balding to the Tim Easterby. Can be placed to win races for his new connections this season and did go well of a break for his previous trainer.
Dream Today finished runner-up on his first two starts in Meydan in January. This race represents a drop-in class for the top-weight and he can’t be dismissed.
Wentworth Falls losing run is now 18 and goes back to April 2017 but he’s often placed in big field handicaps since. Looked an unlucky loser of today’s mark when 5th of 22 in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last September. Handicapped to win if ready to roll for the first time for 265-days.
Ice Lord is another nicely handicapped horse. Last win came in October 2018 at Doncaster, off 4lb higher. Ran really well on his seasonal reappearance when 4th of 15 behind Flavius Titus in a Class 2 C&D handicap last April. He didn’t get the clearest of run when making his effort two out and if he had got a clear run would have finished much closer to the winner. Can now race off 7lb lower and can win races off his present mark when he gets a good pace to chase.
Verdict: Wentworth Falls is well handicapped but is on a long losing run. Another well handicapped runner is Ice Lord who was unlucky in the run here last Spring and can race off a 7lb lower mark today.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Racing returns at Newmarket for the first time in 2020. It’s the first of four days of action at flat racing’s HQ and it’s a bumper ten race card although the first six races on the card are for 2-year-old’s.
The Group 3 Pavilion Stakes, normally run at Ascot, is the highlight of a ten-race card on the all-weather at Newcastle. I have a selection in the Pavilion Stakes and also one running at Newmarket.
Newcastle
3:55 – Betway Pavilion Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
A field of 14 three -year-old’s are set to go to post for a race that was one last season by Calyx. The winner of the race will no doubt become one of the leading fancies for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
Malotru showed he had trained on from two to three when winning a 7f Listed race at Lingfield in February. That was a career best effort and the drop back to 6f should inconvenience the colt who can go well.
A’Ali did well as a juvenile, winning three Group 2 races, including the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Flying Childers at Doncaster all at 5f, before disappointing in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint at Santa Anita in November. If he’s trained on and is effective over 6f then he will be there at the finish even though he has to give 4lb to his main rivals.
Ventura Rebel won his first two starts as juvenile before running A’Ali (gets 4lb here) to a neck in the Norfolk Stakes. The colt then disappointed when 5/4 favourite for the Super Sprint at Newbury and wasn’t seen out after that run which suggests that something was amiss with him that day. Looked in need of an extra furlong at Newbury so the step up to 6f should suit.
Dream Shot was alsoa useful juvenile winning at Goodwood (racecourse debut) & Chelmsford. The son of Dream Ahead ended last season with career best RPR’s, when beaten a length by A’Ali in the Flying Childers and occupying the same spot in a Group 3 at Dundalk in October. Given he won first time up he should be fit enough to himself justice and on the evidence of his runs at both Doncaster & Dundalk he should be suited by today’s step back up to 6f. Trainer James Tate is 6 winners from 22 runners 27% over C&D. And it’s also worth noting his exceptionally good record in the past three years with horses returning from a 121+day break – 26 winners from 75 runners 35% +11.83 A/E 1.54 40 placed 53%. Albeit those going off 6/1 & bigger are 0 winners from 29 runners 4 placed 14%
Verdict: A’Ali has the best juvenile form. Whilst Malotru has shown he’s trained on and could be capable of more progress back sprinting. Ventura Rebel won first time up last year and if over what kept him off the track from July has each way claims. Another with each way claims is Dream Shot, also gets 4lb from A’Ali, and has a chance of reversing placings with that one over today’s extra furlong.
0.5pts each way – Dream Shot – 10/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 0dds)
Newmarket
4:45 – Mio Mento looks set to be a popular choice with punters in this 6f handicap. The filly should go close on her first start since finishing a close up second at Newcastle back in March. Despite her obvious claims it may pay to take a chance with the Pam Sly trained DRUMMOND WARRIOR. The four-year-old won his first two starts last season (both at Windsor) before finishing a neck second on the July Course, off 1lb higher. Didn’t beat a rival on either of his last two starts but he surely didn’t give his true running on either occasion and a subsequent wind-op could see him bounce back this year. We know the 4-year-old can win first time up and he looks on a good mark for his return to action. Trainer Pam Sly also has a great record with her runners returning from a 120+ day layoff – 13 winners from 64 runners 20% +104.25 A/E 1.89 22 placed 34%. At around 12/1 the 4-year-old looks worth chancing each way.
1pt each way – Drummond Warrior – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Not the best of starts with Cosmic Law never getting competitive at Newcastle yesterday.
The quality of the racing steps up today with Kempton hosting the Group 3 Classic Trial which is usually run at Sandown at the end of April and the Listed Snowdrop Stakes for fillies both part of a nine-race card.
Racing returns to the grass at Yarmouth on Wednesday with a bumper ten race card. The going description is firm (good to firm in places). The course has been watering to maintain the going but if it stays dry, we can assume the ground will be quick side.
I’m focusing on Kempton today and it’s two pattern races.
Kempton
2:45 – Unibet Classic Trial Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
A race for the classic generation which has been rescheduled from its normal home at Sandown. Given its proximity to the Derby means it’s attracted a good-sized field off 11 runners. I think it will pay to look towards the first three or four in the betting for the likely winner of the race.
Born With Pride heads the Racing Post betting forecast for the race. Once raced last year as juvenile the filly caused a bit of a shock when winning the Listed Montrose Stakes at Newmarket on her racecourse debut. She’s entitled to improve as 3-year-old and could be a serious Oaks contender. Should go well if ready to roll first time.
Max Vega comes into the race with the best juvenile form. Like the favourite he’s yet to try the polytrack but it shouldn’t inconvenience him. A son of Lope De Vega. The colt won easily at Pontefract on his second start before going onto land the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket in October. It will be interesting to see if he’s improved over the winter as he didn’t look biggest horse as 2-year-old.
Bright Melody won’t be inconvenienced by the surface as the gelding won at Chelmsford on his race course debut in January, in what looked a decent time. He looks set to improve this season but you would be disappointed if a gelding was to win this.
Hypothetical a well-bred son of Lope De Vega also won he’s sole start at Chelmsford back in December. It wasn’t run in a quick time but the colt showed a good turn of foot to win his race in the final furlong. He wasn’t stopping at the finish of the mile contest and the extra two furlongs of this race should bring out more improvement in the colt. Trainer John Gosden is 4 winners from 12 runners in the race since 2008.
Verdict: Born With Pride is as short as 8/1 for the Oaks so probably needs to win this if she to be a serious contender for the Epsom Classic. Max Vega has the best juvenile form but may find that some of rivals have improved past him. Hypothetical looks like one who will find improvement for the step up to 1m 2f and looks a good prospect for a trainer who knows the type of horse needed to win the race.
1pt win – Hypothetical – 7/2 @ Bet365
3:55 – EBF/Unibet Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes – (Listed) – 1m
Fourteen fillies & mares are set to go to post for what looks a competitive renewal of the Snowdrop Stakes.
Nazeef, trained by John Gosden, heads the betting forecast. The 4-year-old improved with each of her four starts last season and looks set to progress further this year.
Gosden also saddles Scentasia. Another 4-year-old she also progressed nicely last season, ending 2019 with two wins in Listed company at Lingfield in the autumn. The latter of those wins came over 1m 2f but she’s a free going filly who should be well suited by a strongly run mile.
Billesdon Brook, a winner of the 2018 1000 Guineas won the Group 1 Sun Chariot at the same venue last October. Her Group 1 success means she has a 7lb penalty to shoulder today. It will be a tough ask to give weight to some potential improvers but she takes a sizable drop-in class and the faster they go the better her chance.
Romola, trained by Sir Michael Stoute who looks to have his horses well forward after the break, is interesting. The daughter of Pivotal was another to improve last season after the fitting of the visor, albeit in handicap company. Looks the sort to continue to improve as a 4-year-old. Her trainer does well with such fillies and also has an excellent record with his older horses on their seasonal reappearance – 31 winners from 96 runners 32% +35.84 A/E 1.32 48 placed 50% since the start of 2015.
Verdict: This looks a strong renewal of the race. Billesdon Brook has the class to win and the harder they go the better her chance. John Gosden has a strong hand with potential improvers Nazeef & Scentasia, with a slight preference for the former. Sir Michael Stoute has his older horses nicely forward and although Romola has plenty to find on ratings with the likes Billesdon Brook she looks the type to improve this season and has place claims.
1pt each way – Romolo – 11/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Well it looked like racing behind closed doors at Newcastle went off without too many hitches yesterday.
Newcastle races again on Tuesday and racing returns in the south of England with a bumper card at Kempton.
There are two interesting Class 2 handicaps at Newcastle and the second of them provides my first selection since the break.
2:30 – Sir Michael Stoute had a winner at the track yesterday and he saddles the lightly raced Mubakker in this 6f handicap. The 4-year-old won at Kempton after returning from a long break last September and although the colt disappointed at Ascot on soft ground on his next start. The return to the synthetics should see a better run from the likely favourite.
Glen Shiel won here over 7f in January. This is the 6-year-old’s first start over the distance but he’s a prominent racer so should be able to get competitive.
My selection though is the Richard Fahey trained COSMIC LAW. The 4-year-old disappointed when down the field in the Goodwood Stewards Cup. Prior to that he had shown his effectiveness on the surface when 2nd of 12 to Staxton in a similar contest over C&D. Trainer had a sprint handicap winner here yesterday with Brian The Snail. He also runs Growl in the race but it’s Cosmic Law I want to be with today.
Cheers
John
Good morning all,
After a 76-day absence horse racing returns to England today. Ok, it’s behind closed doors but given I don’t think we’ll see large crowds at any sporting fixture for some time, it’s better than nothing.
I’m chomping on the bit, as I’m sure you are, for what looks a great week’s action culminating in three great days racing at Newmarket from Friday to Sunday.
It’s certainly going to be different that’s for sure. Not only is it behind closed doors. There are also some other restrictions being put in place, at least for the short term. The number of fixtures is much reduced, the field sizes are limited to 12 runners and jockeys from other countries won’t be able to ride due to quarantine reasons.
The temptation to go in “all guns blazing”, is there, given how starved we have been of the sport we love. However, I suggest a fair degree of caution on the betting front at least for the first couple of weeks.
Newcastle hosts the first British horse race meeting since the sport was shut down on March 18th. It’s a bumper ten race card with each of the races containing the maximum twelve runners allowed under the new regulations.
I decided at the start of the year to concentrate on the better class of race and nothing during the enforced break has changed my mind on that score.
There will be selections later in the week but I will be sitting today out.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
Well that’s the Cheltenham Festival done and dusted for another 12 months. After the over indulgence of the Festival comes the inevitable hangover and this year the hangover is even worse due to the Covid-19 virus. No racing of any sort in the UK until the end of April at the earliest. Ireland is keeping the sport going behind closed doors but how long that will last is anyone’s guess.
Here is my belated Cheltenham Festival review using the ever-wonderful benefit of hindsight. Which contains three lessons learned from the last week, a couple of micro angles that are worth noting for next year, my highlight performances from each day and five eyecatchers from the meeting.
Betting wise; a good profit on the week although it could have been oh so much better if Column Of Fire hadn’t have fallen at the last when challenging in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.
The ante post selections made a profit, although I had hoped for a bit better, as did my bets on the day which was even better.
In Monday’s Daily Punt I highlighted three lessons that I learnt from last weeks Festival.
1. Don’t Back Hold Up Horses in Festival Handicap Chases: Once again this year the handicap chases were won by horses who were prominent or tracked the leaders like The Conditional, Imperial Aura & Simply The Betts or were at worst in mid-division like Milan Native & Chosen Mate.
2. Concentrate on the big yards: Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott & Nicky Henderson are ahead of their peers in preparing a horse to be spot on for the big day. The ‘big three’ won 18 of the 28 races at this year’s Festival.
3. Cheltenham form from previous festivals is more important than more recent form elsewhere. We saw that again with the likes of Concertista, Min and Sire Du Berlais to name just three.
J P McManus
I highlighted the angle to Daily Punt readers on the day before the start of this year’s Festival
J P McManus runners sent off 9/1 & under, with 1 to 6 previous runs at Cheltenham.
The angle was profitable once again this season:
2020 – 4 winners from 10 runners 40& +8 A/E 2.09 6 placed 60%
22 winners from 85 runners 26% +37.68 (+53.33 BFSP) A/E 1.39 44 placed 52% since 2013.
Gordon Elliott Handicaps
Using that benefit of hindsight. It’s probably worth paying attention to Gordon Elliott runners in handicaps that are towards the front of the market.
Looking at his record in handicap races at the past three Cheltenham Festivals. Those sent off 11/1 & under are:
8 winners from 29 runners 28% +35 A/E 2.04 15 placed 52% (+44.75 each way)
Those sent off 12/1 & bigger produced
1 winner from 33 runners 3% +1 A/E 0.62 9 placed 27%
This looks an interesting trend. Between 2011 and 2017 his record in handicaps with runners 11/1 & under was:
1 winner from 21 runners 5% -15.5 A/E 0.37 11 placed 52%
The official going description on the Old Course on day one was soft but looking at the times for the day it was heavy.
The two stand out performances of day one where Shishkin & Epatante and it’s hard to split them.
Won what looks a high-class renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He should make up into high class novice chaser next season. There looks to be plenty of scope for more improvement from the 6-year-old with another summer on his back.
Runner-up Abacadabras was only a head behind the winner. He probably hit the front to soon and was just done by a stronger stayer on the day. The ground would also have been plenty soft enough for the 6-year-old. He will probably stay over hurdles next season and have a go at the Champion Hurdle.
The first two in the Supreme pulled 11 lengths clear of the third Chantry House who can also do well when going over the larger obstacles, at further than 2m.
Asterion Forlonge finished 4th but his jumping was a big let-down. He continually jumped to his right and caused carnage at the third & second last hurdles. He’s clearly got a good engine but at the moment he needs to go right-handed and his jumping needs to improve if he’s to fulfil his potential.
Epatante
If there was going to be a star in the Champion Hurdle field it was going to be Epatante as she put any doubts about the suitability of the track and the testing ground to bed with a decisive win. The mare has a bit more improvement in her and will no doubt be trained for back to back wins in the Champion Hurdle.
Captain Guinness came into the Supreme with just two career starts under his belt and one of the least experienced horses in the field. He had travelled through the race like a top-class horse before being hampered three out and then being brought down two out.
But for events at the second last he would surely have finished in the first three. There should be plenty more to come from the 5-year-old, if his confidence hasn’t been affected to much.
Like day one Wednesday’s racing took place on going softer than the official going description.
Another day with plenty to choose from: Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, Champ in the RSA Novices Chase, Dame De Compagnie’s win in the Coral Cup or even Easyland in the Cross Country.
Champ just edges it for me in what turned to out to be the finish of the meeting. For many he was the lay of the day. Coming into the race having fallen isn’t the best preparation for a Grade 1 Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Once again his jumping was hardly fluent and coming to the last he looked to have no chance of catching the front two Minells Indo & Allaho . However, jockey Barry Geraghty conjured up an incredible finish from him on the run in to register what looked a most unlikely win. It was stamina and class that won the day and if he can improve his jumping, he’s a serious Gold Cup contender. Mind you poor jumping didn’t stop Dawn Run from winning the Gold Cup, so it may not stop Champ.
It wasn’t a good Festival for trainer Colin Tizzard so in the circumstances The Big Breakaway’s fourth placed effort behind the impressive Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle can be marked up. The 5-year-old came into the race having won both starts over hurdles. A big chasing type anything does over hurdles is a bonus.
A half-brother to 3m chaser Kildisart, he remains one to follow both this season and next when racing over 3m. Will no doubt he going over fences next season with the RSA Novices’ Chase looking a target.
The action moved over to the New Course on Thursday. The official going description was soft, good to soft in places but looking at the race times it was soft on the hurdles course but heavy on the chase course.
It could have been Samcro’s win the Marsh Novices’ Chase, or Min’s deserved first Cheltenham success in the Ryanair Chase. However, I have opted for Sire Du Berlais win the Pertemps Series Final.
Sire Du Berlais has only won three of his fifteen starts over hurdles but two of them have now come here in the Pertemps Final. Carrying top weight, 7lb higher than in 2019, and racing in the first time blinkers he travelled better into the race than he had 12 months earlier. Coming to the last it looked like stablemate The Storyteller was going better but jockey Barry Geraghty hadn’t asked his mount for his effort and the 8-year-old found plenty for pressure on the uphill finish to outstay the runner-up. The faster pace of these big field handicaps clearly brings out the best in Sire Du Berlais as does Cheltenham. Looking at RPR’s his performance was rated 2lb better than what Lisnagar Oscar achieved in winning the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle later on the card. He deserves a go in Graded company after this performance but he wouldn’t be seen at his best in a tactical race. Maybe connections will target it him at next year’s Stayers Hurdle given how well he goes at Cheltenham.
Robin Des Foret had looked a winner in waiting when finishing 3rd of 12 to Warthog in the valuable Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at the December meeting. Looked to be travelling like the winner coming to two out in the 3m Paddy Power Handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas before his stamina seemed to give way and he eventually finished 6th of 27.
Having his first run since a wind-op he was held up at the back of the field in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase. The 10-year-old was never really put into the race but was making steady headway and picking off rivals before being badly hampered by the fall of Siruh Du Lac two out.
He’s been running well enough in valuable handicap chases this season to think there could be a race in him, maybe at the Punchestown Festival, off his present mark.
The official going description on the final day of the Festival was good to soft but it was more like soft on the hurdle track. However, the chase course was riding much quicker than it had been on Thursday and was closer to the official going description.
It has to be Al Boum Photo’s second successive win in the Gold Cup but there has to be an honourable mention for Goshan in the Triumph Hurdle. The juvenile was about to put in an impressive performance when making a mistake at the last and unseating his rider. He was ten lengths clear at the time and set for an easy win when coming to grief. There was no sign of jumping to the right and has trainer Gary Moore has a top-class horse on his hands. He didn’t deserve to lose but there will be other days for him maybe in next years Champion Hurdle.
Al Boum Photo became the first horse since 2004 to retain the Gold Cup. Jockey Paul Townend took plenty of stick for his ride on Beni De Deux earlier in the week but he got spot on here giving Al Boum Photo a fabulous ride. It was also a great training performance from Willie Mullins who had the 8-year-old spot on for the day.
I just hope Al Boum Photo now starts to get the praise he deserves. He was a good winner last year and an even better one this year. Yet I suspect many are still underwhelmed by him. Maybe it will take a hat trick of Gold Cup wins to show people what a great chaser he is.
The Bosses Oscar probably suited by the standing start in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle that concluded this years Festival. He also may not have been totally at home on the track on his handicap debut either.
Always in the rear he started to make good headway between the final two hurdles and final effort wasn’t helped by stablemate Column Of Fire’s fall at the last. Still the 4-year-old stayed on strongly up the hill to claim what had seemed an unlikely 5th at the finish.
He’s only had the four starts over hurdles and still looks a work in progress to me. There should be more to come from the juvenile going forward.
Cheers
John
Hi all,
The start of the new Irish flat season should be a time of great celebration but sadly it’s starting with a whimper behind closed doors at Naas this afternoon.
I have one selection for you today.
3:30 – The King Of Kells, improved with racing last season winning three times, including a Curragh nursery on heavy ground. Ended last season with a success on the all-weather at Dundalk and returned to that venue to finish a 3rd of 6 in a conditions’ race 10-days ago. The 3-year-old has race fitness on his side which could be vital on what is sure to be testing ground today. Steps up to 7f which should be within range stamina wise and he’s got each way claims in what looks a competitive handicap.
Cheers
John