Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

A welcome winner yesterday with Oromo at taking the first division of the 1m 5 ½ f handicap in the capable hands of Rachael Blackmore. Sadly, a 35p Rule 4 took away some of the happiness. And with uncertainty over the weather over it looks like non-runners could be a feature of the next few days.

Just the one selection today from Doncaster.

Doncaster

3:55 – Kaloor looked a horse going places when winning on his juvenile debut at Salisbury in October 2018. Apart from a promising seasonal reappearance when 3^rd at Newbury last spring it was a disappointing year. Has switched to the David Menuisier yard and shaped with encouragement when 5^th of 12 at Haydock 17-days ago. That was over a mile and the step to 1m 2f looks a good move and he will surely be placed to win sometime this season, by his shrewd trainer.

1pt win – Kaloor – 6/1 @ Coral & Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Some good racing at Haydock today including the Listed Eternal Fillies’ Stakes (3:15) which has been moved from Carlisle.

The going at Haydock dried out on Wednesday and won’t be far away from good to firm today.

Haydock

1:45 – Likely favourite Aljady made a winning debut for new connections over C&D 16-days ago. Up 5lb for that win but expected to go close on quick ground that suits.

Motagally found 5f on the short side but still put in a good effort when runner-up at Newmarket on his seasonal return. The return to 6f and quick ground is in his favour and a bold bid can be expected.

Kimifive was travelling like the most likely winner when getting no sort of run two furlongs on his return at Newmarket 21-days ago. Drops back to 6f here, probably better at 7f, but still needs respecting as he’s clearly on a good handicap mark when all the cards fall right.

Celsius made it 3 wins from 3 runs here when winning 16-days ago. All three wins have come over the minimum trip and this is his first start over 6f since his 2-year-old days.  Up 6lb and a notch in class but he’s an improver and gives the impression he will stay today’s extra furlong.

Verdict: I’m happy to take a chance that the progressive Celsius will stay the extra furlong as a 4-year-old.

1pt win – Celsius – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – It looks a decent renewal of this fillies only Listed race. There are two fillies who ran in the 1000 Guineas – Under The Stars (6^th) and Boomer (12^th)although they were only separated by 3 ¼ lengths.

Under The Stars will be suited by the drop back to 7f but had high draw to overcome.

Boomer won a Group 3 at Goodwood and finished runner-up in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes last season. She was far to keen at Newmarket so the drop back in trip should be a positive, she looks to have a good draw in stall 3 and has to be respected down in class.

Stylistique failed to win any of her six starts last season but she improved with each start. Has 1 3/3 lengths to find on their running at Goodwood but improved further to be beaten a short head in a valuable Doncaster nursery before running a stablemate to ½ length in the Group 2 Shadwell Stakes at Newmarket.  Got her head in front in a Newbury novice race on her return. Needs to have improved for that run but if she runs to her juvenile best has to be a major player.

Jovial, a half-sister to stablemate Jubiloso. The daughter of Dubawi won on firm ground at Yarmouth on her second start last season and ended last season with a win on the tapeta at Newcastle. She showed she has trained on from two to three when winning a Lingfield handicap 20-days ago. Needs to find plenty of improvement to win but that’s not out of the question and it’s interesting that connections step her up significantly in class, given she would have been still running on a winnable mark in handicap company.

Charlie Appleby saddles a couple of strong contenders in Althiqa & Spring Of Love. The former has won both her career starts. Another step forward required but she looks useful and worth a go in this company. Stall 12 could be better but a big run is expected. Spring Of Love looked a decent prospect when winning a 7f Newmarket maiden in October. The runner-up finished second in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot so the form looks solid. The daughter of Invincible Spirit is the least experienced of the field but is capable of more improvement at three and is better drawn than her stablemate in 5.

Verdict: Jovial is bred to be better than a handicapper and its interesting she pitched into Listed company now. Stylistique can improve on her seasonal return and is the pick.

1pt win – Stylistique – 5/1 @ Coral

Fairyhouse

4:00 – Oromo finally got his head in front on the flat when strong at the finish in a 1m 4f handicap here 10-days ago. The handicapper has only raised the him 3lb for that success and with today’s extra 1 ½ f likely to suit he’s taken to follow up.

1pt win – Oromo – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Second part of my Royal Ascot 2020 eyecatchers covers Friday & Saturday’s racing.

For those new to the service. I have traditionally done a weekly eyecatchers article. This season will be different as I concentrate just on the big races and meetings.

Day 4

1:15 – Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

The well-backed Art Power was thought to be well handicapped and so it proved. He’s worth following for the rest of the season and could end the season running in Group 1 company.

Dancin Inthestreet – William Haggas

Had been very unlucky in the run when meeting plenty of trouble on her handicap debut at Haydock. She met trouble again coming at the furlong mark but was finishing off her race strongly. Whilst she wouldn’t have beaten Art Power even with a clear run but she remains a winner a winner in waiting.

1:50 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f

Setarhe – Roger Varian

The filly had created a good impression when coming from behind to win at Newmarket on her racecourse debut. Sent off the well backed 11/4 favourite at the off she wasn’t helped by a slow start here and was always playing catch up. However, she finished her race off strongly to finish second to impressive winner Dandalla and can win more races.

3:00 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f

Hamish – William Haggas

Last season’s 1m 6f Melrose Handicap winner had been expected to improve as 4-year-old. Dropped back to 1m 4f and taking a big step in class. Held up in the rear he was outpaced two furlongs out but ran on well to grab 4^th on the line.  A mile & half is too short in this grade but this was an excellent reappearance by the gelding who needs 1m 6f.

4:10 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) – 1m 6f

Santiago – Aidan O’Brien

Clearly enjoyed the softish ground and the strong pace in Friday’s Queen’s Vase. After the race he was not surprisingly cut into a best priced 8/1 for the St Leger. Wherever he eventually ends up he should be backed on his next start. Previous winners of the Queen’s Vase who ran within 60-days have produced – 6 winners from 12 runners 50% +27 7 placed.

4:40 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) – 1m 4f

Le Don Di Vie – Hughie Morrison

The 4-year-old was having his first start since September, he got shuffled back at an important part of the race and also had to be switched left two furlongs out to make his challenge. He stayed on all the way to line to finish 4^th. Given he was plenty keen enough in the early stages of the race did well to finish as well as he did and showed he stays 1m 4f. There should be other days for him.

Day 5

12:40 – Silver Wokingham Handicap (A Consolation Race For The 2020 Wokingham Stakes)(Class 2) – 6f

There were five who caught the eye for different reasons.

Nahaarr – William Haggas

Dropping back to 6f looked an interesting move for the normally strong travelling 4-year-old. Always up close up with the pace on the near side, he looked the most likely winner at the furlong mark but was going to be vulnerable to something coming from behind. He was just run out of second close to the line There’s a decent 6f handicap pot in him, maybe the Goodwood Stewards Cup?

Aplomb – William Haggas

Had finished a neck behind Tinto in a soft ground C&D handicap last October and was expected to go close again here. An encouraging 5^th of 12 over an inadequate 5f on his return. The drying ground probably didn’t help his cause. He only finished 7^th of 19 but remains on a winnable mark when he gets more ease underfoot.

Blue Mist – Roger Charlton

The ultimate ‘cliff horse’.  A strongly run 6f on a stiff track like Ascot should have really suited the frustrating 5-year-old and he was backed into 7/2 favourite. Slowly away and behind a wall of horses he got no sort of run. He’s not one to take a short price about and will need all the cards to fall right if he’s to land one of these.

Count D’orsay – Tim Easterby

Had been an improved over 5f on soft ground in the second half of last season.  He showed plenty of early speed down the centre but weakened a furlong out to finish 11th.  Ascot’s stiff 6f was always likely to test his stamina and he didn’t get home. A return to 5f or an easy 6f with plenty of juice in the ground can see him progress again.

Stablemate Golden Apollo, shaped with promise in 8^th. It was his first run of the season and first since his Ayr Silver Cup win last September. He normally takes a few runs to get fit but looks capable of winning again later in the season. He’s 5 wins from 11 runs 45% +27,5 6 placed 55% when racing over 6f and within 15-days of his last start, yet to place on his three starts on heavy or soft.

1:15 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 5f

Both the winner Campanelle & runner-up Sacred are smart juvenile fillies. I would love to see the Wesley Ward trained winner run in the Nunthorpe, as a 2-year-old filly she would get all the weight allowances.

Grammata – Denis Hogan

Had shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up on her racecourse debut at the Curragh. She travelled strongly and was still in contention a furlong out. However, she paid for her early exertions in the final stages. There are races to be won with her once her sights are lowered. 

Sands Of Time – Mark Johnston

Impressive when winning a Lingfield maiden on her first career start. Her saddle slipped at half-way and that was her race over. Looks worth another go in this company and could go off at big odds next time.

1:50 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Painless Potter – Alan King

Was very green on his Kempton racecourse debut but put in some solid work at the end of that race to finish 3rd. Thrown in the deep end here but he ran really well to finish 5^th.  There’s plenty of stamina on the dam side of the pedigree and he can win races when stepped up in trip.

4:10 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

Gulliver – David O’Meara

Held up he finished his race of strongly down the near side to take 4^th, beaten 1 ½ lengths. He seems versatile going wise having won on soft & good to firm in 2019.  Big fields really suit the 6-year-old. Third in the Ayr Gold Cup before winning at York, he’s entitled to remain competitive in big field handicaps this season.

Stone Of Destiny – Andrew Balding

The 5-year-old is hard to win with but is talented enough and on back down to a winnable mark. Goes really well at Ascot,won over 5f at the Shergar Cup last year and wasn’t disgraced when 6th in this race 12 months ago. He occupied the same position this time around. He looked like was coming to challenge the eventual winner Hey Jonesy, a furlong out but couldn’t find any extra in the final stages. A return to a stiff 5f can see him win again.

4:40 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

Its’afreebee – Richard Spencer

Had a lot to find on Official Ratings but he stays 3 miles over hurdles so not surprisingly was he staying on at the end of this marathon trip to take 5^th. He had 25lb to find with winner Who Dares Wins but managed to get within six lengths of that one. Hopefully the handicapper doesn’t over react to the 10-year-old run. Lightly raced in the past 18 months he’s clearly not been the easiest to keep sound but there’s a race in him in lesser company over staying trips, or back over hurdles.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I’m off to Naas & Haydock for today’s selections.

Part two of my Royal Ascot eyecatchers will be up later this morning.

Naas

1:30 – Art Of Unity ran well for a long way when 5^th of 13 at the Curragh 11-days ago. That was his first start since December so he’s entitled to be sharper today. Back down to his last winning mark and Ben Coen takes off a handy 3lb. Will pop up in a handicap like this when the cards fall right.

0.5pts each way – Art Of Unity – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Haydock

1:40 – Orvar looked to have benefitted from an off-season wind-op when a running on 3^rd of 12 at Doncaster 10-days ago. Should be all the better for that run and is handicapped to go close in what is a slight drop-in class for the 7-year-old. The one they all have to beat if he builds on his Doncaster run.

1pt win – 5/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Data Protection returned from a 201-day absence to finish a decent 3^rd at Lingfield 18-days ago. The tongue tie he normally wears is back on for his return to turf. Granted he’s now 6lb higher than when making all to win the Silver Cambridgeshire last September but James Doyle is back in the saddle and the yard is among the winners.

0.5pts each way – Data Protection – 14/1 @Bet365

Cheers

John

That’s Royal Ascot out of the way for another year. It was a surreal experience to watch such high-class racing being run behind closed doors.

Plenty to take away from the five-days. I think there will be plenty of winners to come out of the meeting and hopefully I’m about to pinpoint some of them in the next two posts.

It’s a mix of handicappers & non-handicappers and there’s also a hot race included where the first three home should be backed if they start as favourite for their next start.

This first one will cover the first three days and the second will cover Friday and Saturday’s action.

Day 1

1:15 – Buckingham Palace Handicap – (Class 2) – 7f

Shelir – David O’Meara

Wasn’t the best away but stayed on well to take 5^th. Just the two starts since joining the O’Meara yard and can win a nice handicap this season.

Edbury – Martyn Meade

Bounced back from a poor reappearance at Newmarket, doing best of those drawn far side in finishing 6^th. A winner over a mile last season and a return to that distance can see the 4-year-old win again.

1:50 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 1m

Mohaather – Marcus Tregoning

Lightly raced, he was travelling strongly in the rear but couldn’t find a gap when he needed it Once in the clear he finished well to finish 7^th. He clearly retains ability and has a good turn of foot. Can rate higher still.

4:40 – Ascot Stakes (AHandicap)(Class 2)- 2m 4f

Smart Champion – David Simcock

The 5-year-old got up late to win over 2m at Newcastle back in February. He was another he would have preferred the rain to have stayed away on Monday evening. Held up in the rear he made relentless progress in the straight but was never nearer than at the finish in 4^th. He looks on a good mark and is capable of more improvement over 2m+.

Day 2

1:50 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

Russian Emperor – Aidan O’Brien

Looked an unlucky loser when runner-up Derrinstown Derby Trial on his return. He made amends in good style here, got the strong pace he needed and finished his race off strongly. A step up to 1m 4f could unlock further improvement in the colt. If he takes his place in the Derby, he will be a major contender.

2:25 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) – (Class 2) – 1m 4f

A race that should be a source of plenty of future winners.

Subjectivist – Mark Johnson

Half-brother to last year’s St Leger second Sir Ron Priestley who improved for the step up to 1m 4f/1 m 6f.  Was bought steadily into the race from his wide draw and had every chance at the furlong post. Got slightly hampered by Arthurian Fable inside the final furlong but still stayed on well enough to take third.

Group One Power – Andrew Balding

Fourth on his handicap debut at Yarmouth earlier in the month improved on that effort in finishing 4^th.  He was keen in the early part of the race and didn’t get the clearest of runs two out. He was doing his best work at the finish and is another with races in him.

Arthurian Fable – Brian Meehan

Tended to over race on the outer. He’d been expected to improve for the step up 1m 4f and so it proved, finishing 5^th he can win again.

Bodyline – Sir Mark Prescott

Improved on his seasonal return at Yarmouth in finishing 6^th. The step up to 1m 4f suited the son of Australia and more progress should be forthcoming from him.

3:35 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

Being drawn centre to high was the place to be and well handicapped Dark Vision finally returned to his juvenile best in winning this historic handicap.

Montatham – William Haggas

Had looked much improved for the winter gelding operation when winning a Newmarket handicap on his return to action. He maintained that improvement in finishing runner-up here, despite not having the best track position.

Pogo – Charles Hills

Was favoured by his stands side draw but still ran a stormer to finish 3^rd.  He’s put in career best efforts according to RPR’s on his last two starts. If the handicapper doesn’t put him up too much for this effort, he should remain competitive in big field mile handicaps over the summer. He’s won on quicker ground too.

Lord Tennyson – John Gosden

The 4-year-old came into the race having just had the two career starts. Despite his lack of experience, he was sent off the 6/1 favourite. He travelled well in the rear through the early part of the race but couldn’t find any gaps between the final two furlongs. When the gaps appeared, the race was over and he eventually finished 11^th.  He’s worth giving another chance.

4:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f

Yazaman – William Haggas

Finished runner-up to Tactical, had to be switched right inside the final furlong when making his effort and finished his race off strongly to snatch second on the line. He can win in pattern company before the season is out.

4:40 – Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6f

In all truth not many got into the race which was won in good style by Ebor contender Fujaira Prince. There are, however, a couple whose efforts can be marked up.

Selino – James Fanshawe

The 4-year-old had improved with racing and stepping up in distance last season. Raised 12lb for a 2m Wolverhampton success in October and held up in the rear he came through the field to finish runner-up and given his track position did well to get as close to the winner. Racing for the first time in the Qatar Racing colours he remains unexposed as a stayer and can win more races over 2m.

Ranch Hand – Andrew Balding

A progressive handicapper last season winning a soft ground Haydock in September. Having his first start since a disappointing effort when 11/2 favourite for the Cesarewitch. The 4-year-old was well backed before the race to make a winning return to action. It was a satisfactory run in 6^th but he probably would have preferred softer ground. There should be more to come this season over 1m 6f to 2m.

Day 3

1:15 – Golden Gates Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Tritonic – Alan King

A winner at Newbury as juvenile put in a career best effort in finishing second although he was not match for the winner inside the final furlong. He should come on for the run and there should be more to come from the colt in valuable handicaps at around 1m 2f this season.

3:00 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f

The first three home in the Chesham have usually done well when sent off favourite on their next start, producing – 19 winners from 32 runners 59% +10.40 24 placed 75%.

4:10 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) – 1m

The Roger Varian trained Khaloosy turned out to be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap as he quickened away clear of his rivals inside the final furlong for an easy win. He’s a smart prospect and can hold own in much better company going forward.

There should be a few future winners in behind the impressive winner.

Enemy – John Gosden

Didn’t get the best of starts but was doing his best work at the finish.  He should stay 1m 2f on pedigree and can win a handicap or two when stepped up in distance

Toro Strike – Richard Fahey

Made a pleasing return to action to finish 5^th.  He had ended last season with third placed efforts in a competitive nursery at Goodwood and a valuable sales race at Doncaster. Staying the mile well, he looks on a workable handicap mark when his sights are slightly lowered.

Eshaasy – John Gosden

In the same ownership as the winner, was probably in need of his first run since down the field in the Group 1 Futurity at Newcastle back in November. Bar the winner he travelled better than anything else for six furlongs before fading into 8^th. The Oasis Dream gelding probably found this stiff mile stretching his stamina. He can win again when dropped back in trip.

4:40 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m

Soffika – Sir Michael Stoute

Has a pedigree that should see her improve with racing so did well to win over 6f as a juvenile. Her half-sister Dubka improved when stepped up to 1m 4f, as 3-year-old, and was Group placed over 1m 4f & 1m6f as a 4-year-old.  Wasn’t able to go the early pace but stayed on steadily to finish 7^th. The run was probably needed and she’s open to more improvement as 3-year-old.

Plenty to stick into the trackers.  Part two will be with you tomorrow.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Great run by Cape Coast after his long layoff. However, Boardman can be marked down after his underwhelming first start in Britain.

Part one of my Royal Ascot eyecatchers will be with you later this morning and part two tomorrow.

Today’s sole selections runs in the lucky last at Kempton.

Kempton

8:55 – Sure I’m Your Man made a satisfactory return to action stepped up to 1m 4f on his handicap debut 17-days ago. Held up in the rear he made steady headway to run on into 6^th. His got the pedigree for 1m 4f and could stay further. Should be sharper for his Lingfield return and he looks interesting in the first time cheekpieces.  

1pt win – Sure I’m Your Man – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No joy for Prejudice on Sunday. Horse racing returns to Scotland on Monday with a fixture at Ayr. I have a selection from there and Thirsk.

Thirsk

3:20 – We haven’t seen Cape Coast on a racecourse for 1034-days. When last seen in action he was a highly progressive 3-year-old winning at Pontefract & Ripon before bettering that form when occupying the runner-up spot in a valuable handicap’s at Ascot & Chester.

I don’t know what’s kept him off the track for so long so his well-being has to be taken on trust. However, given such a long absence I would expect him to be fit enough to himself justice and first time up could be the best time to catch him. 

A mark of 90 looks winnable, if he’s over what has kept him from racing and I think he can go close for the inform Mark Johnston yard.

1pt win – Cape Coast – 8/1 @ Bet365

Ayr

5:20 – Boardman is rare Ayr runner for Lambourn based trainer Joseph Tuite. The 4-year-old is having his first start for the trainer after switch from the Pascal Bary stable. Good enough to finish runner-up to the talented Persian King on his second start as a juvenile.

Last season he didn’t build on the form of a Saint-Cloud maiden last spring although wasn’t disgraced when 3^rd of 4 behind the now 107 rated Charlie Appleby trained Art Du Val back at the same venue.

First run after a gelding operation and the son of Kingman looks on a workable mark for his first Britain debut.

1pt win – Boardman – 17/2 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well a big day was needed on Saturday and we certainly got it as Chiefofchiefs (50/1) early priced advised won the Silver Wokingham. Yes, there was a 15p rule 4 to early prices but we can live with it. 

It got better in the next race as the Wesley Ward trained filly Campanelle won the Queen Mary at an early price advised 7/1.

I couldn’t manage the Wokingham double unfortunately. However, Gulliver managed to grab 4^th to land the each-way bet. Hopefully you also got on the six places available on Stone Of Destiny who sneaked into sixth.

The previous four days at Royal Ascot had been tough so it was good to end on a big high.

Just the one race to look at to today and it’s at Kempton.

Kempton

4:55 – Not a bad little 1m 4f Class 3 handicap. The market is headed by the Andrew Balding trained Edinburgh Castle. The 4-year-old was made favourite for reappearance & handicap debut at Newmarket 16-days ago. He ran satisfactory race and was bang there two furlongs but then faded to finish 4^th. Maybe the ground was quick or maybe he just needed the run. We shall find out more today on his return to the polytrack, a surface that suits.

Palavecino has shown the benefit of a gelding operation to win his last two starts at Lingfield and latterly here. Up 7lb for his latest success and up a furlong in distance, he’s clearly talented but has hung in the final stages of both in last two races and the hood he’s worn on his last two starts has been removed. Unlikely to get an uncontested lead here.

Emirates Knight’s best two RPR’s have come here over 1m 3f. Arguably his best performance of 2019 came when 4^th of 12 in the Middle-Distance Series final on his last start.  There could be a bit more improvement to come from the 4-year-old but he’s another who likes to force the pace.

A strong pace could suit the likes of dual C&D winner Landue who made a pleasing return to action when third at Lingfield 13-days ago.  Trainer Marcus Tregoning is among the winners and the now gelded Landue needs respecting.

Another who will appreciate a good gallop is Prejudice. His trainer David Simcock hasn’t had a winner since racing resumption but there have been a few signs that his horses are about to hit winning form. Just the three starts in 2019 since joining his present yard and not disgraced on any of them. It’s his first run since a gelding operation and his all-weather debut (dam won here). He’s unexposed over middle distances and looks on a winnable mark for his first start for 338-days.

Verdict: The pace should be a strong one which could suit a closer’s like Edinburgh Castle, Landue and Prejudice.

1pt win – Prejudice – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As promised yesterday here are my selections for the final day of Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot – Day 5

12:40

0.5pts each way – Chiefofschiefs – 50/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Swindler – 6/1 @Bet365 & Coral

1:15

1pt win – Campanelle – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:25

1pt win – Sharing – 7/1 @ Bet365

3:00

1pt win – Threat – 12/1 @ Bet365

3:35

1pt win – Khaadem – 17/2 @ Bet365

4:10

1pt win – Gulliver – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts win – Lethal Lunch – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Stone Of Destiny – 20/1 @ Sky Bet (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Royal Ascot concludes today with a bumper eight race card. It seems like they have kept the best till last. We have three Group 1, the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, Coronation Stakes & St James’ Palace Stakes. We also have two Group 2 juvenile contests the Queen Mary Stakes & Coventry Stakes. Add in the Wokingham Handicap and its consolation the Silver Wokingham and you have a day brimmed with competitive racing.

My final long form preview and oh boy it is a long one!

My selections for the final day’s action will be with you in the morning, as I wait to see what the weather does overnight.

Royal Ascot – Day 5

12:40 – Silver Wokingham Handicap (A Consolation Race For The 2020 Wokingham Stakes) (Class 2) – 6f

It’s hard to say how the draw will pan out here but most of the pace seems to be down the middle.

My ‘cliff horse’ Blue Mist (20) heads the market. The drop back to 6f is interesting and a big field set up really suits. If he was 12/1 rather than 6s I might be tempted in one final time but I will swerve him today. Cue a win for the talented but hard to win with 5-year-old.

The recent rain and subsequent easing of the ground has meant Blue Mist has taken over from Swindler (2) at the head of the market. Swindler made it 2 from 2 over C&D when winning a handicap here on his final start of 2019. The 4-year-old made a satisfactory return to action at Newmarket but this has probably been the plan. A return to C&D will suit and if the ground dries out, he’s got a major chance.

The opposite is the case for Aplomb (13), trained by William Haggas, who needs genuinely soft ground to be at his best. His best three RPR’s have come with soft in the going description. With a career best coming on soft over C&D back in October. Looks to have returned to action in fine fettle having finished 5^th at Newmarket 14-days ago over an inadequate 5f on good to firm ground. Will be spot fitness but will he get his ground?

Louie De Palma (12) has plenty of all-important C&D form with his form figures reading 112. He seems ground versatile and has won off a long layoff. Each way chance but slight concern that this grade of race will prove to much for the 8-year-old whose 0 wins from 8 runs 2 placed in Class 2 handicaps.

Count D’Orsay (16) was highly progressive 5f handicap sprinter on soft ground at the end of last season. The 4-year-old made a pleasing return to action finishing third (Aplomb 5^th) at Newmarket 14-days ago.  Ascot’s 6f is one of the stiffest in the country so how strongly will this speedy gelding be finishing off his race? There’s a nice pot or two in the gelding this season but will it be over 5f? He should be spot on fitness wise and Osin Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking so he can’t be discounted despite slight stamina reservations.

Chiefofchiefs (15) is an interesting contender dropping back to 6f for the first time in his career. All his five career wins have come over 1m or 1m2f. The 7-year-old hasn’t won since January 2019 but shaped with encouragement when dropped back to 7f for the first time at Meydan in February when a strong finishing 3^rd of 10. A strongly run race over 6f where the pace collapses could suit. Not easy to win with but could pop up in a race in which the leaders come back to him and William Buick is an interesting jockey booking.

Verdict: When I don’t tip Blue Mist will be the day, he goes in. I really fancied Aplomb when the rain arrived early in the week but drying ground has put me off. The drying ground brings dual C&D winner Swindler very much back into the mix. Count D’Orsay can win races off his present mark but this is a stiff 6f. Louie De Palma who goes well over C&D has place claims. Chiefofchiefs has dropped to a fair mark he may well be run off his feet in the early stages of the race but if they go hard up front he could get into the money.

1:15 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 5f

The only juvenile race at Royal meeting that has eluded Aidan O’Brien in recent years is the Queen Mary – 0 winners from 7 runners 1 placed in the past 12-years. He saddles the likely favourite in More Beautiful. The daughter of War Front who looked a smart filly in the making when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas 11-days ago (good to firm). On the evidence of that run in a quick time she will be hard to beat here if the ground continues to dry out.

Sacred & Sardinia Sunset finished first & second in a Newmarket maiden 16-days ago. The latter showed good speed that day and could reverse placings for the very much inform Roger Varian stable.

Sands Of Time showed plenty of speed from the gate when making all to win on the all-weather at Lingfield 13-days ago. Her dam Starlit Sands finished runner-up in this race in 2007.

Wesley Ward has won the race three times since 2009 and he saddles a couple of strong contenders in Campanelle & Royal Approval who finished first & second in a Gulfstream maiden on firm ground 20-days ago. The quicker the ground the better their chances with Campanelle the choice of Frankie Dettori.

Verdict: More Beautiful looked a smart filly when winning at Naas on her racecourse debut. Wesley Ward was unlucky not to win the Norfolk Stakes on Friday and his runner Campanelle could give the O’Brien filly a race.

1:50 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

This year’s Coventry looks the most competitive juvenile race at the meeting.  

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the race four times since 2011. He has the likely favourite in recent winner Admiral Nelson.  The son of Kingman created a good impression with a decisive success on his racecourse debut at the Curragh 8-days ago. Today’s extra furlong will suit and if the quick turnaround doesn’t inconvenience the colt, he will be tough to beat.

Qaader tops the Racing Post Ratings for the race after an impressive win at Newbury 8-days ago. The third has come out and won since so the form looks solid. Trainer Mark Johnson has his juveniles in winning form and won the race in 2015.

Lauded was a good winner on his racecourse debut at Haydock (good to soft) and Al Shaqab Racing have subsequently bought into the colt. He looked professional at Haydock and shouldn’t be far away at the finish.

Creative Force & Dark Lion finished 1^st & 4^th in a 6f Newmarket maiden 16-days ago. Creative Force made all that day and looked fit physically & mentally ready to win that day and fully deserves to take his place in then line-up. Dark Lion also looked a nice colt that day and indeed was sent off the 2/1 favourite to make a winning debut. His inexperience showed when he ran green making his effort between the final two furlongs. He was doing his best work when the penny finally dropped in the final stages of the race. Has 3 ½ lengths to find with Creative Force but I would be surprised if the son of Dark Angel finished ahead of that rival today.

John Gosden doesn’t have too many juvenile runners at Royal Ascot but those he does run often go well. In the past ten years he’s had 5 winners from 15 runners 33% +26 A/E 2.31 6 placed 40%. He saddles two in Existent & Saeiqa.  Existent is the choice of Frankie Dettori and is a well-bred son of Kingman who should be all the better for his recent promising third placed effort at Newmarket. Saeiqa also finished third on his debut one place ahead of Dark Lion at Newmarket. He’s capable of better although I think Dark Lion can finish in front of him today.

Verdict: Admiral Nelson looked a high-class juvenile when winning at the Curragh last week and will take plenty of beating. Qaader & Lauded look the best of the home team after their winning racecourse debuts. Dark Lion will improve for his debut run and could run into the places.

2:25 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) – 1m

The first of two cracking mile Group 1 contests for the classic generation. Seven fillies are set to go to post for the Coronation Stakes and you can give chances to six of them.

Quadrilateral, heads the market and the form of her 3^rd in the English 1000 Guineas is strong. However, she needs to settle better than she did at Newmarket. If she does, she’s got a big chance of another Group 1 success.

Clock of Spirits finished one place ahead Quadrilateral, in the 1000 Guineas. She got the run of the race that day on the fair rail and I would be disappointed if she finishes ahead of her rival today.  

Sharing comes over from the USA. The filly put in a career best effort when taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita and won her prep at Churchill Downs last month. Probably needs a sound surface and who knows how she will handle the track. Big chance though, if she gets her ground and Osin Murphy has been booked.

Run Wild ran away with the 1m 2f Pretty Polly Stakes on her seasonal reappearance. She’s clearly trained on from two to three and the drop back to a mile shouldn’t inconvenience her.

Frankie Dettori is on Irish raider Alpine Star whose half-sister Alpha Centauri won this for the yard in 2018.The filly doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run but there was plenty to like about her attitude in winning a Group 2 at the Curragh when last seen in action, had So Wonderful & Love behind her that day. She should improve plenty for the step up to a mile and is a big player.

Even nine race maiden So Wonderful can’t be ruled out, as she’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and finished third to a stablemate in last weeks Irish 1000 Guineas.

Verdict: The drying ground will help Sharing. Quadrilateral needs to settle better than she did in 1000 Guineas.  Alpine Star looked a good filly when winning a Group 2 last summer and is a fascinating runner on her seasonal return.  

3:00 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts) – 1m

Wichita and Pinatubo finished second & third in the 2000 Guineas. Can Pinatubo return to something like his juvenile best? If he does, he would win this. However, I think Wichita has the more scope for progress, as 3-year-old, and can confirm form with Pinatubo. He does wasn’t good ground or quicker though.

Palace Pier is an intriguing runner. Twice a winner at Sandown as a 2-year-old he sidestepped the first colts classic and ran in a Newcastle handicap for his seasonal return. He was very impressive in victory.  Three lengths behind the eventual runner-up coming to the furlong mark he quickened up in the style of a very smart colt to win by 3 ½ lengths at the line. The son of Kingman should come on a bundle for the run and I think he will make up into a Group 1 performer this season.

Of the rest Threat was a useful juvenile and connections opted to come rather than go for the 2000 Guineas. He finished runner-up in last years Coventry Stakes before going to win the Gimcrack & Champagne Stakes later in the season. Tough ask to win a race like this first time up but he shouldn’t be far away and should be a better horse at three.

Verdict: I think Wichita will confirm 2000 Guineas with Pinatubo. Palace Pier is the unknown quantity stepping out of handicap company but could turn out to be high class.

3:35 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 6f

I swerved my usual trends approach at this year’s meeting but this race does have some interesting ones.

Looking at the last eight running’s of the Diamond Jubilee – 8 winners from 118 runners 24 placed.

All eight winners were:

12/1 & under in the betting forecast and aged four to six.

8 winners from 37 runners +13.17 15 placed

Using those two filters leaves a shortlist of Sceptical, Hello Yomzain, Khaadem, One Master & Dream Of Dreams.

Sceptical is the short-priced favourite was a notable improver on the all-weather at Dundalk over the winter. The 4-year-old showed he was just as effective on the grass when easily winning a fast ground 5 ½ f Listed race at Naas 12-days ago. Big step up in class here but he looks a smart sprinter who will go on improving.

Hello Youmzain has the best form in the race, third in last years Commonwealth Cup over C&D he went on to win the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup (soft) on his next start in September although disappointed here on heavy in the Champions Sprint on Champions Day. Lightly raced he’s gone well fresh in the past and should continue his progress this season.

One Master finished runner-up in the Champions Sprint. Possibly better over 7f, twice a winner of the Group 1 Prix de la Foret on Arc Day and her stamina came into play here on Champions Day. but She has a potent turn of foot when produced to win her race at the right time. The softer the ground the better for the mare over 6f but she has no great record first time up.

Dream Of Dreams has been gelded since his last run when well beaten in the Champions Sprint. The 6-year-old was an improver in the first part of last season, putting a career best effort when beaten a head by Blue Point in this race 12 months ago. His form tailed off after that race but a reproduction of that run would make him tough beat today.

Khaadem looked a Group sprinter in the making when easily winning the competitive Goodwood Stewards Cup under a big weight last year. Sent off the 9/2 co-favourite for the Haydock Sprint Cup he ran poorly there and even worse in the Champions Sprint. If you forgive those efforts due to unsuitable ground, he doesn’t have much to find with the principals on his Stewards Cup success. Mind you he does needs good or quicker ground to be seen at his best.

Verdict: The drying ground has probably gone against One Master. Dream Of Dreams would go close if in the same form as he was in this 12 months ago. Sceptical could well improve past these but he’s plenty short enough on what he’s achieved so far. The drying ground will suit Khaadem and he’s a very interesting contender if reproducing his Stewards Cup form.

4:10 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

As with the consolation race it’s hard to say how the draw will pan out. However, most of the pace horses seem to be drawn low so it will probably pay to have at least one pick drawn low. However. I still want to keep onside one or two drawn nearer to the stands side.

One of my favourite sprint handicaps of the season and a race I have had plenty of success in the recent years, tipping three winners of the race since 2015. Most of the 23 runners have some sort of chance but the ones I like most are:

Bielsa (3) heads the ante post betting.  A likeable and progressive sprint handicapper last season. He’s only had the five career starts winning four of them. Goes well fresh, three of his wins have come off 100+day layoff and been purchased to run in the colours of King Power Racing. Looks like he could make up into a Group performer this year.

Highland Dress (17) is a rapidly improving 4-year-old handicap sprinter who comes into the race looking for a hat trick, after wins at Southwell and Newmarket (good to firm) 15-days ago. Now 6lb higher than at Newmarket but is going the right way. The better the ground the better his chance!

Tinto (11) won over C&D last October and put in a career best when winning at Newmarket 15-days ago. Raised 5lb for that success but the weight rise is negated by the booking of a useful 5lb claimer. Not without a chance given his present form and versatility ground wise.

Silent Echo (6) comes into the race in great heart having won at Newmarket 15-days ago. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that win but it’s worth remembering he was 2 ½ length, 5^th of 28 in this race in 2018 and can race off 2lb lower today.

Lethal Lunch, (22) trained by Clive Cox, last four career wins have come over 7f but he put in a career best effort over 6f when runner-up to Harry’s Bar at Kempton in December, Silent Echo back in third. He was also making his effort when hampered a furlong out in a C&D handicap won by Swindler back in September. Needs a fast pace to be seen at his best which he should get but he also probably needs quicker ground which he might not get.

Angel Alexander (23) won the Ayr Gold Cup last year, off 4lb lower. Not so good in Group/Listed company in Meydan over the winter. Needs to find bit more improvement to win this but at least we know he goes well in a big field and he can’t be totally ruled out.

David O’Meara saddles three and Gulliver (20) is the one I like most. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort on turf when winning a big field handicap at York last October, off 2lb lower. Bettered that effort on Southwell in January.  He seems versatile going wise won on soft & good to firm in 2019.  Finished well behind Tinto at Newmarket but it was his first run for 90-days and he should strip fitter today.  Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.

Recon Mission (5) looks handicapped to win a sprint handicap this season. The 4-year-old won a valuable York sprint handicap 12 months ago (good to soft). He also ran just as well when 4^th of 10 here over 5f at the Shergar Cup.  Beaten less than length that day he can race off 4lb lower now.  Finished two places ahead of Gulliver in the Tinto race at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance. He’s another who will be sharper for the run and a bit of ease does suit him well so he wouldn’t want the ground to get to quick. Might find stronger finishers over Ascot’s 6f but has a chance.

Stone Of Destiny (4) is 0 wins from 3 runs over C&D but wasn’t disgraced in this race 12 months ago.  He was beaten just under six lengths but should have finished closer as he didn’t get the clearest runs between the final two furlongs. Did go onto win here over 5f at the Shergar Cup off today’s mark. He made an encouraging return to action when 4^th of 12 at Newmarket two weeks ago. The 5-year-old is hard to win with but is talented enough and on back down to a winnable mark. Ff he gets luck in the run could get into the places on a track that suits.

Verdict: I have plenty on the shortlist. Bielsa could prove to be ahead of his mark but does need to have improved over the winter. Highland Dress is a handicap sprinter on the upgrade. If they go hard up-front Lethal Lunch should be finishing his race off strongly.  Gulliver likes a big field and should be thereabouts.  Recon Mission is on an attractive mark but the stiff finish could find him out. Stone Of Destiny has dropped back to his last winning mark and can run a big race on a track that suits.

4:40 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Class 2) – 2m 5 ½ f

The traditional final race of the Royal meeting One of the longest races in the flat racing calendar. A historic race, for sure, but one that now seems strangely out of place. It can attract a big field of runners although just 11 have been declared for this year’s renewal. There can be plenty of dead wood in the race as connections often like to have a runner at Royal Ascot.

It’s another race I have looked at the trends for away in.

Looking at the last eight running’s of the race – which contain -8 winners from 121 runners 24 placed

All eight were 12/1 & under in the betting forecast and had run in at Group/Grade 1 or Group/Grade 2 on the flat or over jumps.

8 winners from 40 runners +16.5 16 placed.

There are just four qualifiers: Mekong, Who Dares Wins, Nate The Great & Fun Mac.

Nate The Great is a 4-year-old and you have to go back to 2008 for the last winner from that age group. Made a satisfactory return to action on his first start since leaving Archie Watson and gelding when operation when 3^rd of 8 at Newmarket over 1m 4f. May stay this marathon trip and trainer Andrew Balding has a good record in the racing winning it twice since 2013 and also the third home (also a 4-year-old) in 2018.

The picks on ability are Mekong & Who Dares Wins. The first named was well down the field in the Gold Cup on Thursday but this is calmer waters and he’s the best horse on official ratings and should stay.

Who Dares Wins is an excellent dual-purpose horse. The 8-year-old won over fences at Kempton in February but was also quick enough to win the 2m Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last June. Stays really well and is more consistent than the talented but quirky Mekong. Trainer has had two winners at the meeting already and looks to have a great chance of third.

Verdict: Nate The Great given his trainers record in the race. Who Dares Wins has guaranteed stamina and has leading claims for a stable in the winners at the Royal meeting.

Cheers

John