Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

When Red Force One won the Summer Hurdle it looked like it was going to be another good day for the service but sadly it didn’t turn out to be the case. Still not much damage to the betting bank on the day.

The Group 1 July Cup is the highlight of an eight-race card on the final day of Newmarket’s July Festival. There’s also a good supporting card at Ascot with the Group 2 Summer Mile the highlight of another eight-race card.

We have been spoilt with the quality of Sunday racing since racing resumed from lockdown so tomorrow’s fare will come as a bit of a shock. I don’t see any potential selections tomorrow so these will be the final ones of the weekend.

I will begin Saturday’s betting preview at Newmarket.

Newmarket

1:50 – Haqeeqy has won both starts this season, both over 7f at Yarmouth and under a penalty on the Rowley Course 22-days ago.  Has been given a decent mark of 92 for his handicap debut. Open to more improvement and should stay a mile.

Establish improved for the step to a mile as his pedigree suggested when an excellent 3^rd of 12 at Lingfield two starts back.  Didn’t have to reach that level of form when winning a Bath novice 16-days ago.  The son of Australia is going the right way and although he’s bred for a bit further, he travels well enough in his races to think he can win a handicap like this over a mile.

1pt win – Establish – 17/2 @ William Hill

3:35 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Thirteen have been declared for this race and it looks a high-quality race with impressive Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde taking on Diamond Jubilee winner Hello Youmzain.

Hello Youmzain won the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup last September and added a second Group 1 win to his career when winning the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot on his seasonal return. Always in a prominent position it looked like eventual third Sceptical had his measure when taking a slight lead, a furlong out but his credit Hello Youmzain battled back to lead close home and hold of the late challenge of Dream Of Dreams. Diamond Jubilee winners racing in a Group 1 race and racing between 16 to 30-days are 4 winners from 14 runners 29% +8.75 7 placed 50%.

Sceptical re-opposes again and has a chance of reversing form on this slightly speedier 6f, especially if the ground dries out.

Khaadem was 1 ¾ lengths back in fourth that day. He was too keen for his own good that day but was only run out of the places in the final 100yds. He’s won over C&D in the past and today’s bigger field could enable him to get more cover. On good or quicker ground, he would need respecting. Interesting that jockey Jim Crowley come here rather than ride Mohaather at Ascot.

Golden Horde a high-class juvenile showed he had trained on well from two to three with a decisive win the Commonwealth Cup and is open to more improvement.

Of the rest Threat travelled strongly but didn’t seem to stay a mile when 5^th of 7 in the Group 1 St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Drop in trip looks a wise one and he can’t be dismissed lightly although you would expect there would be a couple who might have a bit too much pace for him.

Verdict: Golden Horde could prove to be this seasons champion sprinter by winning this and has a favourites chance. If the going was good a win by Khaadem wouldn’t surprise. However, on the anticipated ground and at the prices it has to be the slightly underrated Hello Youmzain.  

1pt win – Hello Youmzain – 9/2 @ Bet365

4:10 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

A typically competitive renewal of the Bunbury Cup with 18 declared to run. The ante post betting has been dominated by the Hamdan Al Maktoum pair of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik who were first & third in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot and they could dominate again. 

Raising Sand wasn’t disgraced when 8^th of 23 in the Hunt Cup and did best of those racing over the far side. The softer the ground the better for the 8-year-old back down to 7f. Looks better drawn in 16 today but is vulnerable to any better handicapped horses.

Tomfre is 2 wins from 2 runs, including C&D. The 3-year-old is ground versatile and ran a cracker to finish a short head second to Well Of Wisdom at Sandown last month. Raised 4lb he remains open to more progress and shouldn’t be far away.

Sir Busker is seeking the hat trick after wins at Newcastle & Royal Ascot. The last of those wins coming in the Silver Hunt Cup where he came with a powerful late run to lead in the shadow of the post. That was over a mile so he will need the anticipated strong pace dropped back a furlong in distance. Up 5lb for his Ascot win but the 4-year-old is going the right way and has to be high on the shortlist.

Arigato & Kasbaan were first & third in a 7f handicap on the Rowley course two weeks ago. Arigato is looking for a hat trick and should go well. Kasbaan a three-time winner on the all-weather was having his first start on turf for present connections and seemed fully effective on it. He might need a mile but a strongly run 7f and he could get in to the money. At the revised weights there shouldn’t be too much between the pair today.

Keyser Soze is rated 10lb better on the all-weather than the turf. The 6-year-old tends to be slowly away as he was when well beaten in the Buckingham Palace last time. However, he was only sent off 14/1 that day so someone thinks he can win a race like this on grass. Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb and on a going day I could see him running into the money at big odds.

Verdict: The claims of Motakhayyel & Mutamaasik  are obvious but they look plenty short enough for me. Keyser Soze could easily pop up in a race like this. Dual course winner Tomfre is an improving 3-year-old who has to be respected.  If you like Arigato you can’t dismiss the claims of Kasbaan who’s more than three times his price in some places. It’s hard to say how the draw will pan out but if low numbers hold sway then don’t rule out Sir Busker who will be suited by a strongly run 7f on easy ground.

1pt each way – Sir Busker – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

0.5pts each way – Kasbaan – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/4 odds)

Ascot

3:15 – Mohaather was unlucky with how the race panned out when only 7^th to Circus Maximus in the Queen Anne at the Royal Meeting. He got no sort of run at crucial part of the of the race and would have gone close to winning with a clear run. The best is yet to come and he’s the one to beat.

Drying ground brings the consistent Marie’s Diamond into the mix. He was an excellent third in the Queen Anne could get an uncontested lead out in front.

Skardu was another not suited by the way the race was run in the Queen Anne. Fourth in last year’s St James’ Palace over C&D, the drier the ground the better for the 4-year-old but once again the forecast slow pace could be an inconvenience.

San Donato hasn’t fared well with draw in stall 10 but he’s the most intriguing of the 11 runners. The 4-year-old beat Hello Youmzain as a 2-year-old and ended his juvenile season with a win in a Listed race at Doncaster. Just the one run since October 2018 when 3^rd to Persian King in the French 2000 Guineas last May. He may end up being more effective over 7f but has each way claims if retaining his old ability.

Verdict: Mohaather is priced up on potential rather than form. Now he’s the most likely winner but looks short enough given he’s yet to conclusively prove a mile is his right trip. Marie’s Diamond will be hard to peg back if given an easy time up front. Despite his draw I like the claims of the unexposed San Donato, who like the favourite has to be prove a mile is his optimum distance, but is a fair each way price.

1pt each way – San Donato – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:50 – Arecibo has finished runner-up on both starts over C&D. Hold up style of running means he’s a hostage to fortune in his races but he’s capable of going close,

Aplomb has run very well here in the past over 6f but the drying ground isn’t likely to be in his favour as it wasn’t last time in the Silver Wokingham.

National Anthem is a progressive handicap sprinter who comes into the race looking for the four timer. His two wins have come on good to firm so the dryer the ground the better for the 5-year-old. In a better race here and up 4lb in the weights but may not have reached his class ceiling just yet on suitable going.

Ed Walker saddles a couple of strong contenders in Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak. Jonah Jones twice a winner as a juvenile when trained by Tom Dascombe. He seemed to lose his way last season and has switched to the Ed Walker yard. Gelded over the winter and dropping back to 5f for the first time, he ran a cracker to finish third to Celsius at Haydock last month. There should more to come from him this season. Mountain Peak was C&D winner as 3-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when winning at Haydock 17-days ago. The handicapper has hiked the 5-year-old up 7lb for that success but it would folly to think he can’t defy if given his current form if he gets good or quicker going.

Lahore put in a career best when dropped back to 5f when winning at Doncaster two starts back. Never recovered from a slow start when down the field in the Gosforth Park Sprint, A strongly run race will suit and better can be expected from the 6-year-old returned to turf.

Wedding Date finished runner-up to Chairmanoftheboard at Windsor and just failed by a shorth head to catch Dark Regard at Newmarket 15-days ago. Both those runs came over 6f but a return to a stiff 5f could suit the filly.

Stone Of Destiny doesn’t win very often but Ascot is very much his track. A C&D winner last August off 1lb higher. The 5-year-old ran well for a long way when 6^th of 22 in the Wokingham at the Royal Meeting. He looked like was coming to challenge the eventual winner Hey Jonesy, a furlong out but couldn’t find any extra in the final stages. Drop back to 5f is a positive but is another who will probably need luck in the run.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance in this nineteen-runner handicap. The Ed Walker pair of Jonah Jones & Mountain Peak are high on the shortlist. The anticipated strong gallop will suit the likes of C&D winner Stone Of Destiny, Arecibo and Lahore.

1pt each way – Mountain Peak – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Jonah Jones – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Chairmanoftheboard (6/1 BOG) continued his good recent form with a decisive win at Newmarket. More good racing to look forward to today with day two of the July Festival.

It’s also what’s normally Market Rasen’s biggest race day of the year with the Summer Plate Handicap Chase & Summer Hurdle the two feature races. Over the Irish Sea there’s also an impossible card at the Curragh.

Let’s begin Friday’s preview at Newmarket.

Newmarket

12:10 – Grand Bazaar got off the mark at the 5^th attempt when winning at Windsor 18-days ago. Improved for the step up to 1m 3 ½ f so could be capable of more progress. Group One Power didn’t get the best of runs when 4^th of 17 in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, with a better passage would have finished much closer to the winner. He was doing his best work at the finish and has more races in him. Arthurian Fable was one place behind in that race. Tended to over race on the outer that day. He had been expected to improve for the step up 1m 4f and so it proved, he can win again.

Verdict: A few potential improvers in this 1m 4f handicap. However, It may pay to focus on the King George V Handicap form and Group One Power & Arthurian Fable. The latter needs to settle better than he did at Ascot so slight preference for the Group One Power who is bred to appreciate ease in the ground.

3:00 – Sam Cooke improved for the step up to 1m 4f and relished the soft ground when winning at Chester in May 2019. Off the track for 428-days, he’s 7lb higher now but looks capable of more improvement this season. Big chance with the ground coming in his favour.

Mark Johnston saddles Cape Coast returned from a 1024-day absence when runner-up at Catterick 18-days. Step up to 1m 6f should suit and Dettori booked but soft ground is an unknown and the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor is a concern. Stablemate King’s Advice won this race 12 months ago, off 5lb lower, but he doesn’t come in to the race in the same form as last year.  Star Of The East missed the whole of 2019 due to injury but showed he’s retain plenty of his ability when 2^nd of 6 on the Rowley course 12-days ago. He’s 2 from 2 over C&D and can’t be ruled out of his present mark. Themaxwecan was an improver over 1m 6f/2m last season and put in a career best when 4^th of 16 at Royal Ascot last time. Capable of winning more races this season and Ryan Moore booked but testing ground would be slight concern.  

Christopher Wood didn’t get the best of runs a furlong out but still went on to win at Pontefract last month. Handicapper has only raised him 3lb for that win which means the 5-year-old remains on a competitive mark. Should stay 1m 6f and the soft ground is in his favour.

Holy Kingdom has won both his starts since the resumption of racing. Both wins have come on the other course and his last win over today’s distance was a career best on RPR’s. Just 4lb higher and has a good chance of the hat trick although the ground will be a lot softer here.

Verdict: The Mark Johnston foursome have to be respected. If Cape Coast doesn’t bounce, he could be the best of them, if handling soft ground. No issues with the ground for Sam Cooke who remains with potential for more improvement. At the prices it could be worth chancing Christopher Wood who like the ground and remains on good mark after his recent Pontefract success.

1pt win – Christopher Wood – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Sam Cooke – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:35 – Arguably the most competitive handicap on the card. Lucander improved to win to nursery handicaps last Autumn. Showed he had trained on when putting a career best when third at Haydock 16-days ago, should appreciate the step up to 1m 2f and won on soft last season.

Kipps has finished runner-up on his last two starts, including last time in the King George V at Royal Ascot. The first-time blinkers and drop back to 1m 2f could enable him go one better today.

Grand Rock won twice on heavy ground last year. Returned to action with an excellent 5^th of 14 at Royal Ascot. Looked to have slipped his field coming to the final furlong but a lack of race fitness took its toll in the final stages.

Global Storm finished two places in front of Grand Rock at Royal Ascot but he had race fitness on his side and may need a bit further now.

HMS President finished 4^th but also had the benefit of a previous run. He’s another going the right way and handled the soft ground well enough at Ascot. First run since being gelded and looks competitive enough handicap mark.

Enemy caught the eye when 4^th of 22 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. Didn’t get the best of starts that day but was doing his best work at the finish.  He should stay 1m 2f on pedigree and can win a handicap of his present mark.

Verdict: Lucander looks progressive and can improve for the step up to 1m 2f.Kipps has the ability to win a decent pot and if the first-time headgear has the desired effect, it could be today. Enemy is bred to appreciate 1m 2f but testing ground would be an unknown.  Grand Rock will be much fitter for Royal Ascot reappearance and looks a big danger to all.

1pt win – Lucander – 10/1 @ bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Grand Rock – 9/1 @ Bet365

A couple of competitive handicaps at Market Rasen.

Market Rasen

2:05 – Emma Lavelle has made an excellent start to the new jumps season so her runner Highly Prized needs respecting in the Summer Hurdle. A progressive handicap hurdler last season good ground and ran better than his final position suggests when 18^th of 24 in the Betfair Hurdle on his last start. Big chance if the ground doesn’t ease any further.

Dino Velvet was 6^th in this 12 months ago and this previous C&D winner finished his race of well when 3^rd of 11 at Southwell 9-days ago. Likes to come off a decent gallop and if he gets one should be competitive off his present mark.

Red Force One is another who probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much further. Had decent prep for this on the flat at Thirsk last week. Just 1lb higher than when running Gumball to a neck in a valuable Ascot handicap last November. Well suited to a big field and looks set for a big run.

In form Ollie Murphy saddles two contenders in Fiesole & Valentino Dancer.

Fiesole had recent spin on the flat and should be spot on fitness wise. The 8-year-old showed he’s effective in a big field when 4^th of 17 in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May 2019.  Richard Johnson booked and the first time cheekpieces are added. Provided they go a good gallop he should go well.

Valentino Dancer was 5^th in this race last season, his last start over hurdles, and made a perfectly respectable return to action on the flat at Newmarket last month. Like his stablemate he gets the first time cheekpieces today to sharpen him up and can go well if he takes to the headgear.

Verdict: The form of the Ollie Murphy stable means both Fiesole & Valentino Dancer have to be respected. Red Force One can surely win a race like this off his present mark. Highly Prized needs good ground to be seen at his best but if he gets it is the one to beat.

1pt win – Highly Prized – 9/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Red Force One – 11/2 @ Bet365

2:40 – Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5 ½ f

Lough Derg Spirit is interesting on his first start for Paul Nicholls since switching from the Nicky Henderson.  The 8-year-old need good or good to soft ground to be at his best. Goes well fresh 2 wins from 3 runs 3 placed when racing 121+days since his last start. First run since a wind-op and go well. Stablemate San Benedeto also has claims on his best form. He’s another who goes well on good ground and has the benefit of a recent run on the flat.

Harry Fry saddles three Bags Groove, Art Of Payroll & Drumcliff. All three have some sort of chance but the most interesting of the three is Bags Groove. The 9-year-old is having his first run for 463-days. He was a decent novice chaser when last seen in action winning Grade 2 contests at Wincanton & Kempton.  Has won four times on good to soft and his form figures on good are 111211. First run since a wind-op and looks set for a big run if over what kept him off the track for over a year. Big weight to carry but can win this if retaining his old ability.

Verdict: Bags Groove has a touch of class and if over what kept him off the track can win this. Lough Derg Spirit is interesting on his first start for Paul Nicholls and goes well fresh.

1pt win – Bags Groove – 5/1 @ Bet365

Now a quick look at three of the Curragh handicaps.

Curragh

6:15 – A Few Bob Short ended last year on the up, winning a 1m 4f Handicap at Thurles and finished first past the post at Galway, later disqualified, races off the same mark here. Returns from a 256-day absence, did win first time up last year and easy ground suits.

Leahman, a winner over hurdles is 0-6 on the flat, made an eyecatching return to action when 7^th of 15 at Navan 7-days ago. Didn’t get the best of runs in the final stages and wasn’t subjected to hard race when his chance had gone. Should be sharper today and a big run can be expected.

1pt win – Leahman – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – A Few Bob Short – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:45 – Plenty of regulars in this 18 runner Curragh 6f handicap. Top-weight Ardhoomey was beaten just a neck over C&D on his seasonal return 28-days ago. Nudged up 2lb shouldn’t be a problem but of more concern would be 6f on testing ground for the 8-year-old.

Fridtjof Nansen is an in and out performer. He finished a neck behind Ardhoomey two starts back but was never competitive back here over 5f, albeit in a much stronger race. A better run wouldn’t be out of the question.

Miacomet won a C&D handicap last October, off 2lb lower. Two low key efforts since the season started but bounced back to form when a ½ length 2^nd of 10 at Navan last week. Second reserve but if she gets in, would have to be considered a contender if building on that effort.

Flaming Moon has only had four career starts but the 3-year-old put in an excellent effort when just touched off over C&D (good) on his seasonal return 13-days ago. A winner on soft at Navan last season he’s up 5lb for last time but going seems to be going the right way and looks on good mark.

1pt win – Flaming Moon – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:45 – Verimli could be well handicapped on just his second start for trainer Joseph O’Brien but he’s been well found in the market. Stablemate Latrobe won the Irish Derby two years ago. Has top weight of 10-1 to carry but should be fitter for his recent return to action here last month. Effective between 1m 2f & 1m 6f, doesn’t do anything too quickly so a strongly run race should suit.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Everlastingpromise proved he was an improving handicap chaser when winning at Killarney on Tuesday. Ornua my second selection in the race also ran well to finish third. All in all, a pleasing race from a race reading perspective.

I decided to sit yesterday out given the likelihood of going changes due to rain and I’m glad I did. Newmarket’s July Festival, if you can call it that this year, begins three days of action on the July Course.

The Knavesmire sees racing to return for the first time this season. It’s bizarre to see both the Dante & Musidora, traditionally seen as Derby & Oaks trials on today’s card.  Still it’s great to see racing back at York, although it would be so much better with a crowd.

Like yesterday the weather looks wet so we can expect some ease in the going in particular at York.  It’s going to be a busy few days for the service so I’m not going in too hard today.

Newmarket

12:45 – A competitive looking 6f Class 2 handicap although forecast favourite Nahaarr is now a non-runner on account of the easing ground.

Highland Dress a winner at Southwell back in March showed he handled turf when winning on the other course in June. He wasn’t beaten far into 8^th in the Wokingham last time, only 7/1 for that race, showed the market thinks he may not have stopped improving and he shouldn’t be far away if he handles the potential ease in the ground.

Well Done Fox was a smart juvenile winning a Listed race at York and finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Cornwallis. Only two starts last season but returned to action with a promising 4^th of 11 in the Palace House Stakes. No chance in the King Stand Stakes last time but is interesting on his first start in a handicap and third start beyond 5f.

Pass The Vino won over C&Dand finished runner-up in a valuable 6f handicap last summer. Returned to action with an encouraging 3^rd of 11 on the Rowley Course last month. He can win a good sprint handicap this season but if the ground eases I doubt it will be today.

Chairmanoftheboard has returned to action in great form and ended a long losing run when winning at Windsor two starts back. Needed a stronger gallop to chase when only 4^th back at the same venue 11-days ago. Any easing of the going won’t inconvenience the 4-year-old and a good pace should see the 4-year-old in the mix.

Verdict: Highland Dress is likely capable of more improvement although the ground is a slight unknown. Well Done Fox won’t be far away if he gets the 6f. On a sounder surface I would have been with Pass The Vino but any ease in the ground just favours the inform Chairmanoftheboard.

1pt win – Chairmanoftheboard – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Another 6f Class 2 handicap this time for 3-year-old’s only. Like the earlier race how much rain falls could decide the outcome.

Dancin Inthestreet has caught the eye, when not getting the best of runs on both her last two starts. Step back to 6f shouldn’t be a problem nor will some ease in the ground but she can be a hostage to fortune in running.

Lexington Dash is in great form having won both his starts since the resumption of racing. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for the last of those wins on the Rowley Course. Going the right way and should be in the mix.

Meraas is another seeking the hat trick after all the way wins at Kempton and latterly Pontefract. Just 6lb higher now, he’s a sprinter very much on the upgrade and will be hard to pass if getting an uncontested lead.  Rain softened ground is a bit of an unknown by the looks to have a good chance.

Troubador, a useful juvenile finished runner-up to Meraas at Pontefract. A strongly run 6f will suit and at the revised weight he’s got a good chance of reversing places with the winner here but it’s not hard to think that he was slightly flattered in how close he got that day.

Kevin Ryan saddles three and the one I like at a big price is Treble Treble. A winner of a novice at Haydock (good to soft) last July he struggled in listed company after that win. Appreciated handicap company when a close-up 4^th of 11 at Leicester on his seasonal return 26-days ago. Should have improved for that run and looks on a workable handicap mark.

Verdict: Meraas is going the right way and a 6lb rise in the weights probably won’t stop him but easier ground might. Dancin Inthestreet has a favourites chance and can go close if not finding trouble in running again. Treble Treble should be sharper for his seasonal return and get into the places at big odds.

1pt each way – Treble Treble – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 22/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Meraas – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

And a couple from York.

York

1:30 – Storting broke his maiden tag at the 7^th attempt when winning a mile novice at Pontefract last August and followed up with an even better performance when runner-up in a Classified contest at Doncaster a month later. Yard among the winners and jockey Osin Murphy has a 21%-win strike rate when riding for Mick Channon. On a workable handicap mark if ready to roll for the for the first time 258-days.

1pt win – Storting – 7/1 @ Bet365

4:50 – Its’afreebee was probably a shade flattered by how close he got to Who Dares Wins in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot. Nudged up 4lb for that effort makes life tougher for this lightly raced 10-year-old who hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound in recent seasons. Stable among the winners and any ease in the ground won’t inconvenience him.

1pt win – Its’afreebee – 8/1 @ Coral & Sky Bet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Minellacelebration (7/1 BOG) came with a late thrust to land the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter yesterday. I’m sticking with the jumps today and going for a couple of selections in the valuable 2m 1f handicap chase at Killarney.

Killarney

6:30 – Trainer Henry De Bromhead saddles three of the eleven strong field. Jan Maat was a consistent novice chaser last season and was disgraced when 10th in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen action. The 7-year-old can win races this season and is very effective on a sound surface.

Top weight Ornua probably isn’t as good as he was when winning a Grade 1 Novices Chase at Aintree in April last year or when finishing runner-up to Dynamite Dollars in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Struggled last season but wasn’t disgraced on heavy when 2^nd of 4 in a Navan Grade 2 in March.  He’s much better on a sound surface all six of his career wins have come with good in the going description. Has the benefit of a recent spin over hurdles at Tipperary and can go well as long as the going doesn’t ease.

Everlastingpromise won two of his nine starts over fences last season. Get’s plenty of weight from Ornua today but looks the sort to win a decent handicap pot this season on a sound surface this season. Trainer Edna Bolger has a good record with his chasers at the track 8 winners from 25 runners 32% +15.25 and saddled Ballyoisin to win this in 2017.  Can go well if ready to roll after a 184-day absence.

1pt win – Ornua – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (BOG)

1pt win – Everlastingpromise – 7/1 @ William Hill

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After the last weeks nice profit, it was bang down to earth this week with a small loss. It’s likely to be a busier week on the betting front with the three-day Newmarket July Festival starting on Thursday. York is also back for the first time this season on Thursday with the feature races being the Dante & Musidora Stakes which this year are big races in their own right rather than being seen as trials for the Derby & Oaks.

There’s a big handicap chase at Uttoxeter with the Bet365 Summer Cup the feature race. I have selections from that race and one at Windsor this evening.

Uttoxeter

3:30 – Twelve have been declared for this year’s Summer Cup and it looks a competitive renewal of the race.  The two that catch my eye most are Minellacelebration and Anteros.

Minellacelebration wins his fair share of races, including two last May/June at Aintree and here. Looked all over the winner after jumping the last at Doncaster in February but got collared in the shadow of the post  Up 3lb, but he goes well on the ground, has a decent enough record fresh and given he’s 2 from 2 at Uttoxeter there’s a good chance of him going close, if he sees out 3m 2f.

Anteros gained a hat trick of wins on good or quicker ground between August & October last year. Not so good on his last four starts on soft going and his jumping let him down at Kelso when still going well in the Borders National at Kelso in December. This is a tough race for him but he’s got each-way claims and it’s encouraging that the son trainer’s son told the Racing Post “This has been the plan for a long time, ever since he hit form last summer”.

1pt win – Minellacelebration – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Anteros – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Windsor

5:15 – Spoof, trained by Charlie Hills, has won three times in his career but the last of those wins was in May 2018. Struggled last season but ran several races that would give him a good chance here including when beaten ¾ length into third at Leicester last Autumn. Pulled to hard when beaten favourite at Bath 11-days ago but prior to that had shaped with promise on his return from a 155 day lay off at Kempton.  Needs to settle better than he has done both this season’s starts but is handicapped to win a race if he does.

1pt win – Spoof – 15/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Saturday was disappointing but Amhran Na Bhfiann landed the each-way bet in the Derby to save the day.

Today is arguably the best ever Sunday of horse racing in Britain. We have the Coral Eclipse at Sandown and the main supporting card at Haydock features the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks & the historic Old Newton Cup.

Sandown

3:35 – Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 1m 2f

Last years winner Enable will take all the beating here if fit enough for her seasonal return. However, she will need to be as she has two worthy opponents in recent Coronation Cup winner Ghaiyyath and Japan. It’s the latter who could take advantage should Enable lack any sharpness. Fourth in last years Derby the 4-year-old then went on to win the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris and the International Stakes over today’s distance before finishing a credible 4^th, two places behind Enable in the Arc. He ran like the race was needed when 4^th of 7 in the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes at Royal Ascot. Stays further so a more strongly run race will suit at 1m 2f and he should be fitter of his Ascot return.

1pt win – Japan – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Haydock

1:30 – Well Funded looks worth an each-way play here. The mare was three-time winner last year at around 1m 6f and is 3 wins from 5 runs +12.84 4 placed when racing 1m6f+ with soft in the going description. The 4-year-old built on her Pontefract seasonal return, closely matched with one of today’s rivals Theatro on that running, when 4^th of 13 here over 2m. Today’s softer ground will be in her favour as should drop back to 1m 6f. First time cheekpieces are applied for the first time and the filly should be set for a big run from stall 2.

1pt each way – Well Funded – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

2:05 – Subjectivist caught the eye and looked a winner in waiting when 3^rd of 17 in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. A half-brother to last year’s St Leger second Sir Ron Priestley, who improved for the step up to 1m 4f/1 m 6f, he was bought steadily into the race from his wide draw and had every chance at the furlong post and stayed on well enough to take third. Step up to 1m 6f should be fine for the 3-year-old and he should be effective on today’s much softer surface.

1pt win – Subjectivist – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Sixteen have been declared for this years Old Newton Cup. As ever it’s looks a tricky race om paper. I’m just going to side with last time out course winner Babbo’s Boy. The 4-year-old looked to have improved for a winter gelding operation when quickening clear of his rivals coming to the final furlong for a decisive success 28-days. The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that success but the manner of his win suggests he remains on a winnable mark handling today’s much softer ground.

1pt win – Babbo’s Boy – 7/1 @ Coral & Bet365

3:50 – Cold Stare has two career wins to his name and both of them have come here, including C&D On his soft & heavy he’s 2 wins from 4 runs. A poor seasonal return, 33-days ago, could be explained by an irregular heartbeat that he was found to be suffering from post-race. Probably best judged on his best form here and is just 1lb higher than his last winning mark.

1pt win – Cold Stare – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a quiet week on the betting front but the next two days are going to be very busy. It’s Derby Day at Epsom and with it the Oaks today and on Sunday it’s the Group 1 Coral Eclipse and the return of Enable at Sandown. Over at Haydock it’s the Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup.

Today’s preview is shorter than normal most of today’s selections are from Epsom but I also have a recent Royal Ascot eyecatcher running Haydock.

Epsom

3:00 – A tricky little 1m 2f handicap which has attracted 16 runners. The two I like are Johnny Drama and Tinandali.

Johnny Drama, twice a winner when trained In Ireland has yet to win on his five starts since switching to Andrew Balding yard but placed twice at York and a reproduction of his 2^nd of 14 in a valuable handicap at York’s Ebor Meeting would see the 5-year-old go close. He pulled to hard and was caught out wide on his seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot. This track could suit as should the drop back to 1m2f.

Tinandali, shaped with promise on his first start for new trainer David O’Meara when 2^nd of 9 at Ayr 12-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for that effort but he was clear of the third that day and he can make his presence felt.

1pt win – Tinandali – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt win – Johnny Drama – 12/1 @ Coral

3:40 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) – 1m 4f

Just eight fillies have held their ground for this year’s renewal.  Hot favourite Love bids for a 1,000 Guineas/Oaks Double and she looks to have an excellent chance of doing it.  Frankly Darling has won both her starts this season and should run well. However, Love’s biggest threat could turn out to be her stablemate Ennistymon.  A winner of a Leopardstown maiden on her return to action she improved on that run when a 1 ¾ length second to Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. She wasn’t as well placed as the winner and is entitled to get closer today in a better run race.

Verdict: Love has a great chance of fillies’ classic double but I’m just siding with her stablemate Ennistymon.

1pt win – Ennistymon – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:55 – Investec Derby (Group 1) – 1m 4f

Unlike the Oaks this years Derby has attracted a field of 16 runners.

English 2000 Guineas winner Kameko has the best form by some margin. Yet he’s only second favourite. He should be favourite given the lack of three-year-old form on offer and is a backable price although there are real doubts about his stamina for the Derby distance. If he does stay and handles the track, i know two big ifs, he wins it.

The booking of Frankie Dettori for Lingfield Derby Trial winner English King is an eyecatching one. The favourite might well go on and win comfortably but there are doubts about the Lingfield form. No issues with the trip though for the colt and he’s drifted out to a backable price.

Aidan O’Brien has several contenders. Mogul is the choice of Ryan Moore. He seems to have gone a bit under the radar after his underwhelming reappearance effort. However, he badly needed the run at Royal Ascot and will have been trained to peak at Epsom. Like stablemate Japan last season, I expect to have come on plenty for that initial run.

Vatican City runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas has the class but like Kameko may find his stamina running out come the final furlong.

Russian Emperor was doing his best work at the finish when winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. He should be suited by the step up to 1m4f, He’s tough and should be in the mix.

At a massive price I wouldn’t dismiss Amhran Na Bhfiann. He’s only had two career starts. His 2-year-old debut was no more than a nice introduction to racing at the back of the field as befits a horse bred for middle distances. He left that form well behind when 4th to Tiger Moth in Leopardstown maiden last month. He will improve plenty for that run and is no forlorn hope. His sister won the Epsom Oaks in 2012 and his brother Douglas MacArthur was disgraced when 7th in the 2017 Derby. Now it may turn out he’s a just a pacemaker. However, if he’s not, could sneak into the money at very big odds.

Verdict: The draw puts me off English King & Mogul.  Kameko is the class horse of the race on form but there have to be serious doubts about his stamina for the Derby distance. Russian Emperor possibly lacks a bit of class but he’s tough and shouldn’t be far away. At a really big price Amhran Na Bhfiann could sneak in to the places.

0.5pts each way – Amhran Na Bhfiann – 100/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Russian Emperor – 11/2 @ Bet365

5:35 – Previous course winner Reputation won on his seasonal reappearance and first start for Ruth Carr last Spring and races off 1lb higher. The 7-year-old has his first start for Ian Williams today but he’s starting the season off on a good mark and can go close if he’s fully tuned up.

Tintoretto comes into the race looking for a hat trick after a pair of wins at Kempton. He’s up 5lb for that success and despite a rise class is going the right way.  Off more concern could be the track for the 5-year-old. Back on turf today, won on grass when trained in Ireland, and has to be respected.

1pt win – Reputation – 12/1 @ Coral

1pt win – Tintoretto – 13/2 @ William Hill

Haydock

2:40 – Shelir twice a winner when trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld went into my tracker when 5^th of 23 in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot on just his second start for David O’Meara. He wasn’t that well away at Ascot and should have finished a bit closer. The return to the mile looks a positive and he’s 2lb lower than last time. If the 4-year-old handles the very soft ground looks more than capable of winning this.

1pt win – Shelir – 9/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Strong Johnson got his head in front where it mattered in a thrilling finish to the valuable Rockingham Handicap at the Curragh yesterday. Another profitable weekend for the service. Although as I tend to stress, you’re only as good as your last tip in this business.

Hopefully some of you read my Royal Ascot eyecatchers articles. If you did you would have been all over Santiago in the Irish Derby and Pogo (4/1) at Windsor on Sunday.

As I said last week, their worth a read, as there will be plenty of winners among them.

Nothing caught my eye from a betting perspective today and I doubt there will be too many bets until Saturday but watch your inbox.

The weekend action looks fantastic weather permitting. On Saturday it’s Derby Day at Epsom. The Derby & Oaks part of a seven-race card and ITV Racing will be covering the first six races.

On Sunday we have the bonus of another day’s racing being covered live on ITV. They will be broadcasting four races from Sandown, including the Group 1 Coral Eclipse which this year won’t have any of the classic generation in the field.

ITV cameras will also be at Haydock to cover three races including the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks and the Old Newton Cup, which usually attracts a decent sized field of high quality middle-distance handicappers.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Caravan Of Hope & Big Baby Bull gave us a decent profit for the second successive Saturday.

A couple of selections today from the Curragh but nothing to get to excited on the betting front today.

Curragh

3:45 – Strong Johnson has been hiked up 9lb for a decisive C&D win 15-days ago. The 4-year-old was eased down that day so he looks capable of defying his new mark although the going probably won’t be as quick as it was last time. The second has since gone onto win a Naas handicap so the form looks solid.

1pt win – Strong Johnson – 4/1 @ Bet365

5:15 – Centroid’s a half-brother to Enable and is an interesting contender. We haven’t seen the 5-year-old for 663-days ago so we don’t know how much ability remains but a mark of 82 looks workable if the gelding is over what’s keep him off the racecourse for so long. Hamley won a valuable C&D handicap back in September 2018, off 3lb higher. She failed to win last season but she would go close here if reproducing her 2 ¼ length 4^th of 14, in a C&D handicap 12 months ago. Should be all the better for her Gowran Park seasonal reappearance 11-days ago and expected to go close.

1pt win – Hamley – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Irish Derby Weekend at the Curragh and the historic Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. The best of the action from Newcastle & Newmarket is being covered on ITV racing today. And there’s the bonus of ITV covering nine races on Sunday from Windsor, Newmarket & the Curragh. So, there’s plenty for us to look forward to over the next couple of days.

Newcastle

2:25 – Fool For You, Copper Knight & El Hombre finished first, second & third in this race 12 months ago.

Fool For You wasn’t able to replicate her winning form on three subsequent starts on turf last season but shaped with promise when 4^th of 12 at Ayr 5-days ago. She’s 3lb higher than 12 months ago but will be sharper for her return and her form figures on the tapeta are 211. Looks set for a bold bid.

Copper Knight a winner of the race in 2018, can race off the same mark as when runner-up last year. Only beaten a short head on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket but was a shade disappointing in a Doncaster Listed race 8-days later. A reproduction of his form 12 months & Newmarket puts him firmly in the mix.

El Hombre whose probably slightly better over 6f showed last year that a strongly run 5f at Newcastle also suit. The 6-year-old’s best form has come on the tapeta and he ran almost to his very best when winning at Wolverhampton (6f) 112-days ago. Despite than win can race off 2lb lower than 12 months ago and looks set for another good run.

1pt win – El Hombre – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Copper Knight – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Betfair Northumberland Plate Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Nineteen have been declared for this years Plate and two lightly raced 4-year-old dominate the ante post betting.

Australis was steadily progressive in handicaps on the all-weather at the end of last season and produced a career best effort on RPR’s when winning at Wolverhampton on his seasonal reappearance 18-days ago. Up 5lb but he’s lightly raced and could improve for the step up to 2m.

Caravan Of Hope also improved with racing last season winning twice on turf at Ascot & Doncaster last October. The 4-year-old showed the tapeta surface held no terrors for the gelding when beaten just ½ length by Australis on his return at Wolverhampton. He’s up 4lb, so there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Despite a wide draw in stall 17. I think he could find a bit more than his old rival for the step up to 2m.

Carnwennan goes really well over C&D as he showed when winning the Plate consolation race at this meeting last year and when finishing runner-up to another of today’s rivals Smart Champion 121-days ago.  Vulnerable to any improvers but should go close given his liking for a big field.

Smart Champion was one of my Royal Ascot eyecatcher when 4^th of 19 in the Ascot Stakes 11-days ago. He remains unexposed as a stayer and can win races of his present mark this season but my slight concern here would be the quick turnaround from Ascot.

Kings Advice was a big improver in 2019 winning a valuable 1m 6f handicap at ‘Glorious’ Goodwood. Wasn’t beaten far into 6^th in this race 12 months ago and shaped with encouragement in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes over C&D on his reappearance and has since finished runner-up in a Listed race at Doncaster. Has to be considered a contender from a decent draw in 8.

Rajinsky improved for the step up to 1m 6f when winning at Wolverhampton back in December. Was lacking in a bit of tactical speed back down to 1m 4f at Newbury on his return but was doing his best work at the finish to take third. Unexposed as a stayer and is another who can improve for the step up to 2m. He’s got each way claims for a trainer & jockey combination who were third in this 12 months ago.

Verdict: Carnwennan has to be respected given his liking for big field handicaps. Smart Champion can win races of his present mark but seemed to have a hard race at Royal Ascot last time. I think this can go to one of the improving 4-year-old’s Australis & Caravan Of Hope & Rajinsky.

1pt win – Caravan Of Hope – 8/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Just seven have been declared for this seasons Northumberland Plate consolation race. Al Kout was no match for Australis & Caravan Of Hope when third at Wolverhampton on his return to the flat 18-days ago. The 6-year-old has finished runner-up twice here in 2018, including over C&D, and is handicapped to go close.

1pt win – Al Kout – 4/1 @ Bet365

Newmarket

1:30 – Breath Of Air has returned to action in good form when making all to win at Newbury 15-days ago. Up just 4lb and there could be more to come from the 4-year-old. War Glory has much better record on the all-weather but his turf mark 12lb lower than the all-weather reflects that. Ran well to finish 8^th of 23 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot 11-days ago. Big chance here if the going stays on the quick side of good.

1pt win – War Glory – 7/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365

Curragh

I think Santiago can build on his recent Queen’s Vase Success to win today’s Irish Derby.

6:15 – Ice Cold In Alex is my ‘cliff horse’he goes well at the Curragh (two wins) including C&D. Very consistent and goes well in strongly run big field handicaps. Shaped well once again when 4^th of 14 over 6f on his seasonal return. Back to 7f today and set to go well if he gets the race run to suit.

Big Baby Bull has only had nine career starts and shaped well on his first start for new trainer Dennis Hogan when 4^th of 16 over 7f at Leopardstown 6-days ago. This is a better race but if he can build on last week’s promise won’t be far away here.

1pt win – Ice Cold In Alex – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt win – Big Baby Bull – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes

Cheers

John