Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Montatham saved the day at yesterday’s Ebor Festival. We move onto day three still afloat and the feature race of a seven-race card is the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. It’s the day for Battaash to wow us like Love did yesterday. Bar the ground going too soft the fastest 5f horse in a generation should win Friday’s big one. That said I do have one that can get into the places.

York

1:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

A slightly disappointing field of just ten runners have been declared for the opener.

Zabeel Champion heads the market and the 3-year-old comes into the race with an improving profile having won twice at Newmarket before finishing 2^nd of 11 at Goodwood 22-days ago. Didn’t seem totally at home on the undulations at Goodwood and should be better on a more galloping track. The ground looks ideal and he shapes like the step up to 1m 4f will bring out more improvement. Plenty to like about his chance apart from his price.

The biggest danger to the favourite could be stablemate King’s Caper. The 3-year-oldcame within a nose of winning the Italian Derby two starts back. Last time out he finished 6^th of 10 in a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood. Needs to improve to win this but is progressing with racing and a stronger gallop than at Goodwood and the easier going could see him maintain that progress can get in to the places.

Verdict: Zabeel Champion has plenty in his favour but stablemate King’s Caper has each way claims.

1pt each way – King’s Caper – 9/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:15 – Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) – 2m ½ f

The step up to 2m shouldn’t stop Enbihaar winning this. The mare has a likeable profile and looks ready for today’s new distance. The only thing that will stop her is the ground. Good is fine, good to firm is even better. Good to soft and even soft would be slight concerns. That said I still think she follow in the hoof prints of stablemate Stradivarius who has won the last two renewals of the race.

Verdict: Enbihaar for me if the ground doesn’t come up to soft or sticky.

2:45 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 6f

From the stayers to the speedy juvenile colts & geldings. Minzaal heads the market after a facile win at Salisbury 12-days ago. After that success connections were talking about the colt being a Middle Park horse. We will know whether he’s up to that level later this afternoon but he looks a smart juvenile prospect. Both starts so far have been on good to firm and if he handles today’s different under foot conditions, I expect the colt to go close here. On form the pick must be the luckless Yazaman who has finished runner-up to the Tactical at Royal Ascot and the Group 2 July Stakes. The Kodiac colt then was unfortunate to come up against arguably the best English trained juvenile we have seen so far this season in Supremacy. He sets the standard that they all must beat and it will be interesting to see if the like of the Minzaal can rise to the challenge.

Verdict: Minzaal is the one with potential but Yazaman has the form in the book to win this.

3:15 – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series – 5f

Battaash is the fastest 5f horse in a generation. He wins this easy or he should do provided the ground isn’t to soft. It’s a fight for the places or the betting without market which offers punters as a chance of some return.  

Art Power is the new kid on the block. The 3-year-old is a rapidly improving sprinter who went over to Ireland to win a Group 3 last month. No doubt he’s a future Group 1 winner in waiting and the softer the ground the better his chance.

My offering each way though is Moss Gill. The 4-year-old’s form figures over C&D are 2211. Two of his career wins have come on soft so more rain the better for him. I don’t see him beating Battaash or Art Power on these terms but he can give us a good run for our money.

Verdict: Battaash all the way provided the ground isn’t to soft. Course specialist Moss Gill is a lively contender for the places at big odds.

0.5pts each way – Moss Gill – 40/1 @ Bet365

3:45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 2) – 7f

Plenty of unknowns in the most valuable juvenile maiden of the season. Broomy Law shaped with promise when 3^rd of 9 at Haydock on his racecourse debut and will have improved for that run. Rushmore must have been showing something at home as he was sent off the 11/4 favourite for Newbury maiden 34-days ago. He was slowly away that day and could only finish 7^th of 15. He’s likely better than he showed last time and better can be expected from this well-bred son of Lope De Vega.

Verdict: Better can be expected from Rushmore today but he wouldn’t be a confident selection in a race with too many unknowns.

4:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Asiaaf an eyecatcher for me at Goodwood last time heads the bettingand she must have a great chanceif reproducing the form of her recent Goodwood second. It’s the filly’s first run on going worse than good though which is a slight concern.

Roger Varian saddles a couple of lively contenders in Waliyak & Angel Power. The former was an excellent second in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot before occupying the same position behind all the way winner Chamade (who re-opposes here) at Goodwood. She’s gets 5lb from the winner and deserves to land a race like this. Angel Power won a Chelmsford novice on her seasonal return and has finished runner-up in handicaps at Haydock and Goodwood. Just the four career starts and could be capable of better stepped up to 1m 2f for the first time.

Chamade is an improving filly as she showed when making all to win at Goodwood last time. She got the run of the race that day and may not get that luxury this time. However, If she does she can’t be discounted here even off 8lb higher.

Verdict: Asiaaf looks the most likely winner but she looks plenty short enough given softish ground would be an unknown for her. I’m leaning towards the Varian pair of Waliyak & Angel Power with a slight preference for the latter at the prices.

1pt win – Angel Power – 13/2 @ Bet365

4:50 – Sky Bet Mile Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

Just a 16 runner, 3-year-old’s only handicap puzzle to solve and it’s a tough one for the ‘getting out stakes’.  Indeed, I could make a decent case for twelve here.

The most intriguing runner must be the Mark Johnson trained Visinari. The colt made a big impression and had the sectional fans ‘purring’ when winning on his racecourse debut at Newmarket last June. Had his limitations exposed in Group/listed company on his next three starts but has always looks like he would make a better 3-year-old. Seasonal return here but he goes well fresh and looks interesting on handicap debut.  Stablemate Overwrite was first past the post at Newbury on Sunday and can’t be discounted if getting an easy lead out in front.

William Haggas saddles three in Cold Front, Grand Rock & Johan. They all have claims but Grand Rock looks the most interesting in the first time cheekpieces and dropped back to a mile.

Magnetised was well fancied for his Goodwood Handicap debut 22-days ago. He ran too bad to be true and all only beat one home. After the race the trainer said the colt had a breathing problem so the first-time tongue tie could make all the difference today. He’s surely better than he showed last time and has a nice light weight here.

Hat trick seeking Mon Choix can’t be ruled out although his improved form has come on good to firm going and he’s 13lb higher than when winning at Sandown.

The likes of Eastern World and Finest Sound are solid. Add in improvers like Brunch, Hartswood and Cloud Drift and you have the makings of one of the most competitive races of the four days.

Verdict: Visinarihas questions to answer but remains with potential to be better than a handicapper.  Magnetised is likely on a winnable mark and if you forgive his Goodwood run and looks capable of a bold showing. William Haggas sets a poser with his three runners but the drop back to a strongly run mile could suit Grand Rock who won’t be inconvenienced by further rain either.

1pt each way – Grand Rock – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Visinari – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes

0.5pts each way – Magnetised – 16/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼  odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was a tough first day at the Ebor Festival but at least Cairn Island saved the day by winning the ‘lucky’ last.

Onto today’s action. York’s feature race is the Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks. Double classic winner Love comes over from Ireland to face five rivals. Despite the easing ground she still looks likely to be sent off the odds-on favourite.  

Like yesterday, I’m concentrating on the handicaps on the seven-race card. I also have selections from Chester and Killarney.

York

2:45 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

Nineteen are declared to go to post and it’s clearly the most competitive race of the day.

Montatham has looked an improved handicapper this season with two wins with a second placed effort in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot in between. Up 4lb for his last win and there could be more to come from the 4-year-old.

Prompting is another improving handicapper. He’s won all three of this season’s starts and last time out showed a decent change of gear to win the Golden Mile at Goodwood. Now 6lb higher he needs to improve again to defy his new mark but that’s possible.

Top Rank is lightly raced for a 4-year-old. He’s won all four of his starts and put in career best effort when beating 11 rivals on his seasonal return at Thirsk 22-days ago. Up in class and 12lb higher but he probably hasn’t reached his class ceiling just yet and could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap. 

Walhaan missed all last season and has since switched from France to the Ian Williams yard. Two low key runs were followed by an eyecatching effort when 2^nd of 12 at Ascot 25-days ago. That was over 7f but he was doing his best work at the finish and could well have gone to win if he had got a clearer passage a furlong out. The handicapper has nudged him up 2lb for that effort but he remains on a winnable mark. Should stay the mile around and a strongly run race will suit.

Verdict: I will be surprised if the improving Montatham or Top Rank don’t win this. At the prices I have a slight preference for the former.  Walhaan has each way claims if building on his recent Ascot run.

1pt win – Montatham – 15/2 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Walhaan – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:20 – Sky Bet EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Mayaas, trained by Mark Johnston, was sent off favourite for racecourse debut at Haydock but was to green to himself justice.  He put that experience to good use when 3^rd of 9 at Ascot last month, Today’s extra furlong should suit and he’s a strong contender.

Rhoscolyn put his experience to good use when making all to win at Haydock (good to firm) 17-days ago. Not certain to get an uncontested lead here but Ryan Moore has been booked and big run can be expected on his nursery debut.

Bonnyrigg won a 6f maiden on his second career start at Newmarket (good to firm) 55-days ago. Needed every yard of the 6f to win last time and on pedigree will be suited by 7f. Looks on a workable mark off 77 for his nursery debut and is open to further progress if he handles today’s likely going.

Verdict: Plenty of juveniles capable of more improvement. Mayaas has a favourites chance but preference is for Bonnyrigg who should relish today’s extra furlong.

1pt win – Bonnyrigg – 5/1 @ Paddy Power

4:50 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Another tricky handicap to concludes today’s card.

Excellent Times caused a shock when winning this race at 66/1 last season. She’s just 1lb higher this time around and won off 2lb higher at Thirsk on her next start. The 5-year-old’s three runs this season have been poor but she didn’t come into last year’s race in sparking form either. Each way claims if bouncing back to form.

Dancing Vega looked a smart prospectwhen winning on her juvenile debut Ran well below form in the Fred Darling on 3-year-old reappearance when sent off 3/1 favourite. Switched to the USA for a couple of underwhelming efforts. Returned to former trainer Ralph Beckett she ran a cracker to finish 2^nd of 12 over C&D last month. She was only beaten a short head that day and although she’s been raised 4lb she remains on a winnable mark if reproducing that effort.

Lawahed, trained by William Haggas, is the bookies early bird favourite. The 3-year-old won a Haydock maiden (good to soft) last month. Bred to be much better than an 85 rated filly, her dam won a Group 1 at Meydan, and she’s got plenty of scope for improvement on her handicap debut.

Odyssey Girl comes into the race in good form having finished runner-up on her last two starts. The first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces and could eke out the improvement needed to defy here mark.

Verdict: Lawahedshould be better than her initial handicap mark bur she looks plenty short enough here. Dancing Vega got chinned on the line over C&D last time and remains on a winnable mark. Excellent Times has each way claims if bouncing back to her best after three low key runs so far this season.

1pt win – Dancing Vega – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Besides York there’s also some good racing at Chester and Killarney and I have selections from both meetings.

Killarney

5:15 – Born By The Sea is a consistent performer on the flat and over hurdles. His sole career win came in a C&D maiden hurdle 12 months ago. Ran three good races at the recent Galway Festival, two on the level and one over hurdles. Was beaten just a neck in the handicap hurdle and has been raised 3lb. He deserves to win a race like this and shouldn’t be far away at the finish. Sole win came on good ground but he showed he could be effective on soft ground at Galway.

1pt win – Born By The Sea – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Chester

6:30 – I’m giving another chance to Recon Mission here. The 4-year-old lost any chance when stumbling at the start at Goodwood last time. He’s dropped down to his last winning mark, is suited by some juice in the ground and sharp 6f looks his optimum trip. Stall six could be worse for a prominent runner but if he can get to the front won’t be easy to pass.

1pt win – Recon Mission – 17/2 @ Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day one of York’s Ebor Festival and it looks a cracker. The standout race of a seven-race card is of course the Group 1 Juddmonte International (3:15). 

It’s a fascinating renewal with a small but select field of five runners. They are headed by Coronation Cup & Eclipse winner Ghaiyyath, six-time Group 1 winning mare Magical, Prince Of Wales winner Lord North and 2000 Guineas winner Kameko.

However, it’s the handicap races that provide the best opportunities for some value betting.

The going is being described as good, good to soft in places and a small amount of rain is forecast so the ground won’t be quicker than good.

York

1:45 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f

A maximum field of 22 are declared to go to post. The pace is forecast to be strong with plenty of the runners liking to be out in front.

Michael Dods saddled last year’s winner Dakota Gold and has the ante-post favourite in Jawwaal. The 5-year-old has won both his starts this season. He’s been raised 8lb for the last of those wins but is a sprinter in the winning habit and the hat trick is possible.

Kevin Ryan trained the winner in 2013 & 2014 and he saddle Justanotherbottle. The 6-year-old shaped with promise when 3^rd of 8 at Ayr on his last start. This intermediate trip could well suit and he’s dropped down to an attractive mark.

Arecibo doesn’t win very often and does need all the cards to fall right but he’s suited to this distance. As he showed when 3^rd of 22 in this race 12 months ago. He’s 4lb lower this time around and could get the race run to suit.

Ed Walker saddles a couple of lively contenders in Jonah Jones & Come From the Dark. The former gets 9lb from Jawwaal for a 2 ¾ length beating at Ascot two starts back. He’s since disappointed when 2/1 favourite in a 6f handicap here 24-days ago. If you forgive that run, he’s contender here and like Arecibo will be suited by the likely strong pace. Come From The Dark ended last season in fine form winning at Haydock (soft) and then improving further when a neck 2^nd of 17 at Ascot. Just 3lb higher now but capable of more progress this season and Ryan Moore booked for his seasonal return.

Aplomb finished fourth behind Jawwaal at Ascot. He’s handicapped to win a race like this but would probably prefer softer ground. That comment also applies to Hyperfocus.

1pt win – Arecibo – 7/1 @ Paddy Power

3:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Ralph Beckett trained the winner of this race in 2017 & 2018. The latter of those wins came with Here And Now who made an encouraging return from 613-day absence when 9^th of 16 at Royal Ascot. A good even gallop will suit the 6-year-old who has each way claims.

Beckett also saddles likely favourite Make My Day who also won here, off a long absence, on his first start for the trainer last month. Now 6lb higher he’s open to further improvement for the step up to an extended two mile. More rain wouldn’t inconvenience

Just In Time who made a promising return from a 645-day lay off when 6^th of 11 at Newbury last month. The first time cheekpieces have been applied and he’s another who could run into the money.

The inform Monsieur Lambrays bids for the hat trick after wins at Salisbury and over C&D 24-days ago. He’s 8lb higher in a deeper race but shouldn’t be far away given his present form.

1pt each way – Here And Now – – 12/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:20 – Sky Bet Fillies’ Sprint Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Yorkshire born William Haggas, likes having winners at York at any meeting but probably even more so the Ebor Festival. All nine of his winners in the past five years were aged two or three. He’s 0 winners from 19 runners 4 placed with his older horses.

Those qualifiers going off 15/2 or less have produced the following – 9 winners from 27 runners 33% +10.88 11 placed 41%. He saddles Dancin Inthestreet who had looked unlucky in the run in two starts in handicaps at Royal Ascot & Newmarket before struggling in a Group 3 here over 6f last time. The return to the minimum trip will suit her running style means she needs luck in running.

The other Haggas runner is the lightly raced Pink Sands. The 3-year-old was having just her 4^th start when a highly credible 3^rd of 6 on her handicap debut at Sandown 12-days ago. The first time cheekpieces are applied and Cieren Fallon takes off a handy 3lb. If the headgear has the desired effect then filly should be firmly in the mix.

1pt win – Pink Sands – 13/2 @ Paddy Power

4:50 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

A 13-runner nursery looks a tricky concluding race. It’s another race where plenty of paces is forecast. One of the likely front runners is the Mark Johnston trained Toussarok. A winner at Newcastle on his racecourse debut he followed up that effort with a good second by Darvel (who runs in the Group 3 at 2:15) at Ayr. He’s open to further improvement on his nursery debut.

A strong pace could set this up for a more patiently ridden horse like Pure Dreamer who looked in need of return to 6f when a running on third at Sandown 12-days ago and looks on a workable mark for his nursery debut. Trainer Richard Hanno saddled the 2018 winner.

Another runner who would be suited by a strong pace is Line Of Departure, trained by Roger Varian, more exposed than most but he’s improved to win his last two starts both on good to firm. He’s just 5lb higher than when a decisive winner at Ascot 11-days ago. In the mix if the slightly slower ground doesn’t inconvenience.

Cairn Island put his experience to good use when winning an Ayr novice last month. Another capable of more progress on his nursery debut and big run is expected for local trainer Kevin Ryan who won the race in 2010.

Churchill Bay is another open to more improvement on his nursery debut and is another contender if handling today’s likely slower surface.

1pt win – Pure Dreamer – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Cairn Island – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hukum impressed when winning the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury on Saturday. Apart from Hukum there rest of the selections didn’t run well. It was a toss-up between Jahbath & Tempus in the mile handicap and sadly I went with the wrong one there.

Onto Sunday’s racing and I have had a look at a few races at Newbury & Ripon, as well as the Prix Jacques Marois at Deauville.

Let’s begin at Newbury.

Newbury

1:50 – Aweedram bounced back to something like his best when 2^nd of 13 at Haydock last month. Best two RPR’s have come on soft ground so underfoot condition won’t hold any terrors for the 4-year-old should the going ease further. Can be a bit of a tricky ride but he’s well suited to a straight mile and is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark.

Confide is lightly raced 4-year-old, just the three starts. A good second at York last time and can race off the same mark here. Open to further improvement and won on good to soft on his racecourse debut in June.

Turntable bids for the hat trick after wins at Doncaster and latterly Newmarket. Up 6lb in a better race but he could still be on the upgrade and can’t be ruled out. Soft ground would be an unknown for the 4-year-old but sire Pivotal get’s more than his fair share of soft ground winners.

Verdict: The softer the ground the more I like the chance of the quirky Aweedram. If the ground dries out Turntable has good claims of the hat trick.

1pt win – Aweedram – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Turntable – 11/1 @Bet365

2:25 – Danyah a winner on soft on his 2-year-old debut and good to soft at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance 64-days ago. Up 10lb for that success but he’s got a nicely progressive profile and maybe best fresh. Takes on some exposed handicappers here and the 3-year-old could be up to defying his big rise in the weights. Impresser was at his best on good to soft or heavy ground last season. Disappointed when 6^th of 8 on his on his seasonal return on good ground at Sandown 64-days ago. Has only had five start so there is scope for further progress and he should get his ground today. Has each way claims.

Verdict: Danyah could be best fresh and looks a solid favourite. The ease in the going can help produce a better performance from Impresser.

1pt win – Danyah – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Ripon

2:05 – Hortzader won this race 12 months ago and can race off the same mark today. A good third at Thirsk 18-days ago and the 5-year-old won’t be far away again. Hesslewood is 1 from 12 on grass but he’s been in good form since racings resumption and he showed that he handles Ripon’s undulations when 4^th of 8 over 1m 2f last month. Drop back to a mile looks a positive and he could give Hortzader most to do.

Verdict: The drop to a mile should suit Hesslewood but hopefully Hortzader can make it back to back wins in the race.

1pt win – Hortzader – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

The big betting race of the weekend and plenty of the 20 declared runners have claims.

Motagally is suited quick ground. He’s 8lb higher than when winning over 5 ½ f at Bath 25-days ago. The second has since come out to win so the form of his Bath win looks solid. Has a good draw in 20 and if handles the track can go close!

Abate has won two of his five starts this season and didn’t get the best of luck in the run at Thirsk 7-days ago. A C&D winner last summer he’s got a nice light weight and has each way claims.

You can’t really argue with Kimifive’s position at the front end of the betting. He probably should be favourite, after his recent second in the Goodwood Stewards Cup.  On the negative side he hasn’t won for 14 races.

Gunmetal won this race in 2018. The handicapper has started to cut him some slack and he was good third behind Staxton & Watchable over C&D 10-days ago. He gets a 6lb pull with Staxton for 2 ½ lengths and should get a closer today although drawn down the middle which is off putting. 

Top-weight Dakota Gold has a touch of class. Runner-up in this race two years ago. He went one place better last year. Has found life tougher on his three starts this season but he’s back in handicap company and is just 3lb above his last winning mark. Might need the ground to ease a bit more to be seen at his best.

Tim Easterby saddles a couple of live contenders in Golden Apollo & Staxton. Golden Apollo won last years Ayr Silver Cup off 5lb lower. He seems to be hitting form at the right time and if he builds on recent York second won’t be far away from a good draw in stall 18.  Staxton won over C&D 10-days ago. Up 4lb for that success but was a six-length 5^th in this last year off 11lb higher and gets a 17lb pull with Dakota Gold this time around.

Verdict: Gunmetal is well handicapped but he’s drawn down the middle which probably isn’t the place to be. The Tim Easterby pair of Staxton & Golden Apollo are big contenders with the former well suited to C&D. Dakota Gold would be a big player, even under top-weight, if the ground was to ease. Abate has winning form over C&D and can run into the places.

1pt win – Staxton – 13/2 @ Bet365

0.5pts each way – Golden Apollo – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Abate – 25/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Deauville

2:50 – Prix Jacques le Marois (Group 1) – 1m

Despite the possibility of heavy ground this year’s renewal has the makings of one of the races of the season.  Last year’s winner Romanised would have a good chance of back to back wins in the race if the ground dries out before post time.

Ground worse than soft is a big unknown for ante post favourite Palace Pier.

Circus Maximus is tough and consistent and he can normally be guaranteed to run his race. He’s a three-time Group 1 winner over a mile and found only Mohaather too good in the Sussex Stakes last time. Any significant ease in the ground brings him very much into contention.

Persian King won last year’s French 2000 Guineas and then finished runner-up in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby). Last month landed his second Group 1 the Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly and has won a variety of going including heavy.  We probably haven’t seen the best of him yet and his tactical speed makes him a dangerous opponent.

Alpine Star an impressive winner of the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Before going onto finish runner-up in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) last month. Her stamina will come into play if the ground is on the soft side and she can emulate hoof prints of her half-sister Alpha Centauri who won the race in 2018.

Verdict: It’s a fascinating race but not one to get involved in until you know how what the exact going is.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

ITV Racing are covering seven races from Newbury & Newmarket on Saturday. The feature race on the Newbury card is the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes over 7f.

On Sunday ITV Racing are broadcasting four races from Newbury and three from Ripon. The highlight of the Ripon card is the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap. However, the biggest race of the weekend takes place over the English Channel at Deauville with latest running of the Group 1 Prix Jacques Marois.

Hard to know what the weather will do tomorrow at the various racecourses around the country. If they get the heavy storms it will become very testing and if the they stay away then the going will be on the quick side.

Not the best of Saturday’s but we are on the eve of the Ebor Festival so it’s not too surprising.

Newbury

1:50 – Denford Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Washington Singer Stakes) -7f

Four of the seven declared runners won on their racecourse debut last time.

Guru, trained by John Gosden, won over C&D 28-days ago. He wasn’t subjected to too hard a race that day. Open to plenty of progress and is potentially a smart prospect in the making.

Dhahabi a son of Frankel and half-brother to Golden Horn, is bred to be a Champion and he cost 3,100,000 gns as a yearling. Made an encouraging racecourse debut when winning a Newmarket maiden three weeks ago and is another with more improvement to come.

Jumby only cost45,000gns as a yearling but he’s shown he possesses plenty of ability when winning at Ascot 35-days ago. The Ascot win came in a good time and more can be expected from the colt today.

Francesco Guardi cost connections 200,000gns as a yearling. The son of Frankel looked a potentially smart colt when making a winning racecourse debut at Salisbury 35-days ago. His inexperience showed in the early stages but he came home strongly to win and can’t be totally dismissed.

Verdict: A fascinating race.Guru & Dhahabi are from top connections and are priced accordingly and it might be worth taking them on with the equally promising Jumby & Francesco Guardi.

1pt win – Jumby – 9/2 @ Bet365

2:25 – Unibet You’re On Handicap – 1m

Tempus is lightly raced for his age, just the for starts. Makes his seasonal return but did win first time out last year and should enjoy the rain softened ground. Remains capable of more improvement.

Afaak won last year’s Royal Hunt Cup off today’s mark. Ground versatile and back to his best when running a cracker to finish 3^rd of 14 in the Golden Mile at Goodwood 15-days ago. The choice of Jim Crawley and looks set to go close.

Jahbath another lightly raced 4-year old. Four wins on the all-weather and although he hasn’t won on turf yet, he’s only had two starts so remain unexposed on grass. Despite a poor start shaped with promise when 4^th of 12 at Haydock 28-days ago. That was his first start for 476-days so he’s entitled to sharper for that run. Capable of winning off this sort of mark but Crowley opts for Afaak.

Verdict: Afaak can be expected to run his race. The lightly raced Tempus and Jahbath could be on a good marks and Tempus should be suited on the going.

1pt win – Jahbath – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes

3:00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5 ½ f

Last year’s runner-up Morando will go close again if the ground is soft or worse. The more testing the going the better he is and looks a worthy market leader.

Alignak won a handicap on the all-weather on his seasonal return and improved further to finish runner-up in Listed race in Haydock last month. Capable of more progress and should be suited today’s step up to 1m 5 ½ f.

Hukum won King George V Stakes Handicap at Royal Ascot on just his third career start and handicap debut.  He has plenty to find on ratings with the favourite but has more progression in him and shouldn’t be far away given the 3-year-old allowance he receives.

Verdict: Morando should get his ground but Alignak is open to progression as is Royal Ascot handicap winner Hukum.  

1pt win – Hukum – 9/2 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

3:35 –   Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Likely favourite Dream Of Dreams has the best form among the ten runners. However, I think he may prefer a sounder surface and although he looks the most likely winner, I am happy to take him on.

Last year’s winner Glorious Journey must concede 3lb to his nine rivals this time around. He won on soft ground 12 months ago so underfoot conditions won’t be a problem. Will be sharper for his recent run in the Lennox Stakes.

German raider Namos would be an interesting contender should connections bring him over.  The 4-year-old won a Group 3 at Dresden over the distance two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when 8th of 12 in the July Cup. A bit of juice in the ground won’t worry this improving colt.

The more rain the better for History Writer. He’s a bit to find with the principals on official ratings but can’t be ruled out a big price.

Verdict: Dream Of Dreams is the one to beat on form but the ease in the ground brings last years winner Glorious Journey into contention. Namos wasn’t disgraced in the July Gup and is an intriguing runner from Germany.

1pt win – Namos – 10/1 @ Bet365

Dundalk

4:15 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Red God” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 2 ½ f

Probably the most interesting of today’s handicaps either side of the Irish Sea.

Stall 10 could have been better but I like Mythologic here. His sole career win came at Dundalk in March and he remains a 12-race maiden on grass. That said he’s been holding his form well in turf handicaps since racing resumed in Ireland in June. The 3-year-old put in another cracking effort when 4th of 16 in the mile handicap at the Curragh on Sunday. Held up in midfield he was making his effort on the far side when not getting a clear run a furlong out. Once in the clear he was running on strongly to grab 4th.  Looks worth another try over 1m 2f and is capable of landing a nice handicap pot before the season is out.

There’s a suspicion that we haven’t seen the best of stablemate Verimli who’s been backed into favoritism on both his starts since moving from France.  Takes a big drop in trip but has a good draw in stall 3 if connections decide to opt for a prominent ride with the 4-year-old. First run on the all-weather but had soft ground form when trained in France so if the ground is running as slow as it has been of late, he could be suited by it.

Charcor is a dual C&D winner and was third in this race last year. Not at his best on his last two starts on turf but a return to the all-weather more to his liking. Vulnerable to any improvers in the field but could get into the money again from a handy draw in stall 4.

Verdict: Mythologic caught the eye last weekend at the Curragh and although his draw could be better, he shouldn’t be far away. Stablemate Verimli is better drawn and worthy of consideration dropped back in distance.

1pt each way – Mythologic – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Verimli – 11/2 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A couple of poor days but not many points lost. In hindsight I got involved in a couple of races that I shouldn’t have.

Today I have three from Pontefract.

Looking at the weekend races I will be concentrating on a maximum of five races on Saturday and six on Sunday.

As for next week. It’s going to be busy from Wednesday onwards with four days of York’s Ebor Festival to look forward to and no doubt plenty of selections. I’m away for few days before York so there won’t be selections on Monday & Tuesday.

Pontefract

1:15 – Round The Island showed he hasn’t lost any enthusiasm for the sport when winning at Ripon two starts back. He’s 8lb higher now, has won off higher marks in the past and five of his career wins have come over C&D So although he might not be the most reliable of horses, he can never be ruled out here. Stall 5 is fair enough and I expect him to go close.

1pt win – Round The Island -12/1 @ Bet365

2:20 – Trainer James Given has a good record with his runners in Pontefract handicap in the past 5-years – 7 winners from 26 runners 27% +58.75 13 placed 50% (backing them all at Betfair SP would have produced an LSP of +87.19). He sets a bit of a poser here by saddling two in this sprint handicap. 

Stone Soldier & Many A Star are his two runners. The first named will be suited by a return to 6f and would come in to serious contention should the going ease significantly before post time. The one I like though is Many A Star. Then 3-year-old showed the benefit of gelding operation when winning at Doncaster (good to firm) on his seasonal reappearance 20-days ago. He’s been raised 4lb for that success which doesn’t look too excessive and there could be more improvement from him.

1pt win – Many A Star – 6/1 @ Bet365

4:20 – The very much inform Sir Michael Stoute yard provides today’s final selection. Prince Imperial a winner of a Chelmsford maiden on his final juvenile start last season. Hampered, but beaten at the time, on his seasonal return Doncaster 45-days ago. He may have needed the run that day and steps up to 1m 4f for his handicap debut. Capable of better and trainer does well with these types.

1pt win – Prince Imperial – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Least said about yesterday’s selections. I think they may still be running. 

Onto Thursday and there’s a Group 3 Desmond Stakes is the feature race of an eight-race card at Leopardstown this afternoon.

This side of the Irish Sea the best race of the day is the Listed Upavon Stakes at Salisbury which is the highlight of a bumper nine race card. There’s also a competitive looking, if lower grade, card at Hamilton.

Leopardstown

I don’t fancy anything strongly in the Desmond Stakes. However, I do like one in the 1m 6f Listed race.

3:30 – Aidan O’Brien saddles likely favourite Dawn Patrol who was doing his best work at the finish when 3^rd in the Irish Derby. He didn’t run to anything like that form when making all to win a 1m 2f maiden at Naas 22-days ago. Back up in trip but shaped in the Irish Derby like he can improve for this this sort of distance. A reproduction of his Irish Derby run would be good enough here. 

O’Brien also saddles recent course winner Shoshone Warrior. Like his stablemate he’s another son of Galileo. The 3-year-old made a winning return to action when making most in a 1m 4f maiden here 13-days ago. He isn’t as stoutly bred as his stablemate but raced last time further would suit. This only his fourth career start so is open to further progress. Needs to improve plenty to beat Dawn Patrol but could get into the places.

0.5pts each way – Shoshone Warrior – 10/1- Gen

Salisbury

2:20 – Queen’s Power is the class horse of the race and is sure to be popular with punters. Last time out the filly finished 4^th in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood so takes a big drop in class here Quick ground suits and she won’t find an easier opportunity to get back into the winner’s enclosure. Can be a shade keen in her races so needs a decent gallop to allow her to settle. That said she’s the one to beat on form.

This isn’t a one-horse race. Gold Wand and Award Scheme are couple of 3-year-old fillies who could find the improvement required to beat the favourite.  

Award Scheme represents last years winning stable. A winner of a C&D handicap two starts back she followed up that success with a comfortable win at York 19-days ago. Given the 3-year-old allowance she doesn’t have much to find on ratings with Queen’s Power and is open to more progress than the favourite.

Gold Wand was a winner of a Newbury maiden on her seasonal return. She was then thrown into the deep end in the Oaks on her next start and not surprisingly found the experience too much.  Much better when running the well-regarded Franconia to ¾ length in Listed Class at York 18-days ago. Might eventually be better over 1m 4f but looks the sort to improve with racing.

Queen is an interesting French raider. The daughter of Kingman had decent placed form in Listed & Group company last year. Put in a career best effort on RPR’s when running the smart Fanny Logan to a length in a Group 3 at Newmarket last October. Not at her best on three runs this season but the return to 1m 2f is a positive and a reproduction of last year’s best form gives her each way claims.

0.5pts each way – Queen – 12/1- Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hopefully some of you got on Somewhere Secret yesterday after Buniann was a non runner. Overnight rain at Haydock eased the ground enough to enable Somewhere Secret to hold on a for game success.

Some decent racing at Gowran Park this afternoon and I have a selections from two of  the handicap races.

Gowran Park

1:00 – High Altitude won three times in August last year and looked to be returning to form when 2nd of 17 at Tipperary 5-days ago. He remains 4lb above his last winning mark but has a good draw in stall 2 and Shane Foley is a positive jockey booking. Each way claims although vulnerable to any better handicapped horses in the field.

0.5pts each way – High Altitude – 14/1 @ Coral (paying 4 places)

2:00 – Centroid is a lightly raced for a 5-year-old, just the five starts, who bounced back to form when winning a big field Galway handicap 16-days ago. He looked like he would win more easily than he did when going clear a furlong out at Galway but idled close home and just held on. Up 6lb for that success but Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off a handy 7lb and Enable’s half brother can win more races.

1pt win – Centroid – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tricky Haydock card which made worse by the uncertainty about the weather. Heavy thunderstorms are being forecast for the North West and if they do arrive the good to firm going could ease significantly during racing.

Haydock

1:25 – Turkestan still looked green and didn’t really seem to handle Ripon’s undulations when 3rd of 12 at the Yorkshire venue 52-days ago. Should be suited by this more conventional track and the step up to 1m 2f should suit for his handicap debut. Looks the sort to improve with racing.

0.5pts each way – Turkestan – 13/2 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

2:25 – Buniann has won twice on the all-weather but showed he can be just as effective on grass when a 1 length, 4th of 10 at Beverley 18-days ago. The 4-year-old didn’t get the best of passages two out. had to make his effort out wide that day and in the circumstances can be rated an unlucky horse. Can race off the same mark as his last win on the all-weather and has each way claims.

Last year’s winner Somewhere Secret would be a big player off 3lb lower, if the thunderstorms arrive in time. He’s back down to a winnable mark once he gets soft/heavy ground and maybe worth a saver should the going ease.

0.5pts each way – Buniann – 8/1 @ Bet365

5:30 – Should the thunderstorms arrive and turn the ground soft Hawridge Flyer would look potentially overpriced here. He’s returned from 588-day absence with a couple of down the field efforts at Kempton and is 2lb lower than for his last win on turf (soft) at Newmarket in November 2018. Drawn out in the car park in stall 16 but the key to the 6-year-old’s chance is the ground.

0.5pts each way – Hawridge Flyer – 28/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places)

Good luck with your bets

John

Hi all,

A good ride from Richard Kingscote produced a win by Regal Reality in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury and Hello Youmzain finished runner-up Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville. All in another challenging weekend but no real damage done to the betting bank.

It looks a quiet one on the selections front this week. I’m not expecting more than one or two bets each day until Saturday and some days there probably won’t be any.

Racing returns to Chester for the first time this season today and there are a couple of interesting races on an eight-race card.

Chester

5:30 – True Blue Moon comes into the race in good form having finished 3rd of 12 at York 15-days ago.That was just his fourth start since joining Tim Easterby and looks on a competitive mark for a yard among the winners. Stall 5 could be a lot worse and if the 5-year-old handles Chester’s twists and turns can get into the money.

1pt win – True Blue Moon – 5/1 @ Bet365

6:30 – Major Jumbo was second in this race in 2018 went one better last year and looks to have a good chance of back to back wins. Stall six could be better but if he breaks well, it shouldn’t prove too much of an inconvenience. Hopefully the forecast rain arrives as he’s probably at his best with a bit of ease in the ground.

1pt win – Major Jumbo – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John