Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

The Irish Champions Weekend roadshow moves from Leopardstown to the Curragh. There are four Group 1 races on the eight-race card, including the Irish St Leger and what looks the hottest juvenile race in Europe this season.

All the action at the Curragh gets underway at 2:00pm with a 22-runner sprint handicap. Like yesterday I have looked at a few of the races on the card.

Curragh

2:00 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Bold Lad” Sprint Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 6f

Tide Of Time has been in good form over 5f this season winning at Navan in July and put in a another excellent effort when 3^rd of 11 back at the same venue 8-days ago. Needs to prove he’s has good over 6f.  Stablemate Romantic Proposal won the ‘Scurry’ here over 6 ½ f and wasn’t disgraced when 4^th in a Listed race over C&D last time and another big run can be expected. Trainer Edward Lynam has won this race twice in the past 10 years.

English raiders always must be respected in Curragh sprint handicaps. The Richard Fahey trained Mr Lupton won a Group 2 over C&D last May before losing his form. Back to something like his best when 3^rd of 19 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last month. Colin Keane is a positive jockey booking and he should be in the mix. Treacherous showed he could be as good on turf as the all-weather when winning the consolation Goodwood Stewards Cup 43-days ago. Up 8lb but you couldn’t rule out further progress from the 6-year-old.

Half Nutz made it 2-4 this season when winning at Naas 21-days ago. This is the 3-year-old’s trip and although he’s up 8lb for his last success he’s open to further improvement and can go well if there is plenty of juice in the ground.

Another 3-year-old in good form is Big Gossey. A winner over C&D, off 6lb lower, on his seasonal return. Found the drop back to 5f just too sharp a test when 3^rd of 11 here 45-days ago. Still that was a good effort and the return to 6f is a positive. Has been dropped 2lb since that run and given he’s only had six career starts is open to further progress.

Verdict: Treacherous could turn out be the best of the British raiders. Big Gossey is capable of more improvement, goes well over C&D and should appreciate the drying ground.

1pt win – Treacherous – 8/1 – Gen

1pt each way – Big Gossey – 9/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

3:10 – Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes (Group 1) – 5f

Last year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye Glass Slippers has the best chance on form. Ran well to get within 2 ¼ lengths of Battaash in a Group 2 last time. The ground would have been plenty quick enough that day for the filly who is probably at her best with give underfoot.

At an each-way price I like the claims of Sonaiyla. The filly has really improved on her three starts this season. A winner at Cork on her seasonal return before winning a handicap here over 7f. Last time out she was denied by Glen Shiel in a Group 3 here over 6f 35-days ago. Looks interesting dropped back to the minimum trip and can get into the money.

1pt each way – Sonaiyla – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1) – 7f

This looks the hottest juvenile race of the season and whoever wins it will probably end up being the seasons leading juvenile.

Lucky Vega won the Group 1 Phoenix Park Stakes here last month. An extra furlong today but should stay and is the one to beat on form.

Master Of The Seas has impressed on both his starts at Newmarket, including a Group 2 last time. More improvement expected and could give trainer Charlie Appleby a third successive win in the race.

Battleground has won his last two. The first of those wins came in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Before improving further to win the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Seems ground versatile and is going the right way.

Law Of Indices beat Lucky Vega two starts back before finishing 4^th behind that one in the Phoenix Stakes. Doing his best work at the finish he will be suited by the extra furlong and could get closer to Lucky Vega today.

The likes of Mac Swiney, Military Style, St Mark’s Basilica & Masen are all open to improvement and add further spice to the race. Although they will have to have progressed considerably to beat the big three in the betting.

4:40 – Comer Group International Irish St. Leger (Group 1) – 1m 6f

Sovereign won last year’s Irish Derby and did as well as could be expected when runner-up to Enable in the King George last month. Another attempt at 1m 6f looks worth another go.

Fujaira Prince has returned from a 12 month lay off to win at Royal Ascot and last months Ebor Handicap in decisive fashion. Might be better off a longer break but worth his place in pattern company in what doesn’t looks the strongest of races.

Search For A Song won this 12 months ago. Last time out was doing her best work at the finish when 3^rd of 6 behind Magical in the Tattersalls Gold Cup over an inadequate 1m 2f here last time. Yard struggling for winners at present but she should give it a good go to defend her crown.

Sovereign’s stablemate Passion, fifth in the Oaks and third in the Irish Oaks seemed to improve for the step to 1m 6f when winning a Group 3 at Naas three weeks ago. Unexposed over the distance and her improvement could continue.

The most intriguing runner in the field is the Willie Mullins trained Micro Manage. The 4-year-old won both his starts last season and returned to action with an encouraging 3^rd of 7 in the St Leger Trial over C&D last time. Needs to have improved further to win this but could well do so and will be a lot sharper today.

5:50 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Northfields” Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 2f

Just a 22-runner handicap puzzle to conclude Champions Weekend.

Tauran Shaman threatens to win a race like this and is 4^th of 18 at Galway can be marked up as he wasn’t best placed.

Johnny Murtagh saddles a couple of serious contenders in Wilderness & Sonnyboyliston. Wilderness won her first three starts this season and has finished runner-up on her last runs. Off the same mark as when beaten just a length at Naas three weeks ago. Sonnyboyliston made it two from three this season when winning a C&D handicap 57-days ago. Up 13lb for that success makes life tougher but he’s a handicapper going the right way and connections opt for the first time cheekpieces today.

Flaming Moon started this season over 6f but improved for the step up to a mile when beating 15 rivals here two starts back before finishing well from off the pace to take 7th in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Stamina not guaranteed for 1m 2f but shapes like he will get it. Is 2lb lower than last time and Joey Sheridan takes off a further 5lb.

Kipling, trained by Aidan O’Brien, broke his maiden tag at the fourth attempt when winning Navan maiden 15-days ago. That win came over a mile but he was at his strongest at the finish and is bred to improve further for 1m 2f. Handicap debut off what looks a decent mark.

Simsir won a Meydan handicap back in February, off 5lb lower. Lacked race fitness when last off five in a Limerick listed race back in June. Returned to form when runner-up to an improving filly in a Leopardstown 52-days ago. Plenty of ability but needs to be produced as late as possible.

Verdict: Kipling could be much better than his handicap mark but will need luck in the run. The Johnny Murtagh pair of Wilderness & Sonnyboyliston have both improved this season and remain contenders. Simsir has place claims and Flaming Moon would be a danger to all if he stays today’s extra two furlongs.

1pt win – Sonnyboyliston – 13/2 @ Coral

1pt each way – Wilderness – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A veritable feast of action to get the pulse going over the next two days with the best weekend’s horse racing of the year.  At Doncaster it’s St Leger Day on Saturday with the feature race being Britain’s oldest classic.

Over the Irish Sea it’s Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown on Saturday and the action moves to the Curragh on Sunday. The feature race of an eight-race card at Leopardstown is the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes which you’ll be able to see live on ITV for the first time.

It’s hard to do justice to all the great action on offer. So, I will just concentrate on those races where I have selections.  Let’s begin at Doncaster.

Doncaster

2:25 – bet365 Portland Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f

Arecibo is on a losing run of seventeen but he is 7lb lower than when finishing a length 4^th of 22 in this race 12 months ago. Big field suit and he wasn’t seen at his best when runner-up at Sandown last time.

A Momentofmadness won this race in 2018 and was beaten half a length into second 12 months ago. He can race off 4lb lower and shaped like he could be about to hit form when 3^rd of 11 at Goodwood 46-days ago.

Danzeno is maintaining his form well for a 9-year-old.  He can usually be relied on to run his race in these big field sprint handicaps. As he did when a running on 3^rd of 11 at Haydock 7-days ago.

Meraas won three of his first four starts this season and wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 27 in the Goodwood Stewards Cup. Never got competitive at York on soft ground last time and will be seen in a much better light returned to a sounder surface.

Mountain Peak has improved with each of his five starts winning twice at Haydock over 5f. Last win came off 4lb lower on good to firm and he’s another who will be suited by the drying ground. The slightly extra distance could well suit and he’s got each way claims.

1pt win – Arecibo – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Mountain Peak – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Pertemps St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) – 1m 6 ½ f

Santiago didn’t win the strongest of Irish Derby’s. No issues with stamina for the colt as he won the 1m 6f Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. A bit keen when a shade disappointing third behind Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup last time but this track will suit him better than Goodwood and has solid claims.

Leopardstown

2:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF ‘Petingo’ Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 5f

Persia could well be suited by this sort of trip. Returns for the first time since winning at Chelmsford on his final juvenile start last November. Handicap debut off a mark of 100 but a reproduction of his juvenile form would see the Aidan O’Brien colt in the mix.  

Mirann made a winning stable debut at Gowran Park in June. Before finishing 2^nd of 10 when stepping up to 1m 6f at the Curragh. Was doing his best work at the finish when 3^rd of 14 at Dundalk back at 1m 2 ½ f. Back up in trip will suit although carrying top-weight of 10-0 he remains on a workable mark if the ground isn’t to quick.

Buildmeupbuttercup can usually be relied uponto run her race as she did when 2^nd of 17, beaten a neck, in this race 12 months ago. Now 5lb higher but useful apprentice Joey Sheridan takes off a handy 5lb means she races off the same mark as last year. Not the strongest of finishers and must be produced at the right moment but if she does, won’t be far away.

1pt win – Persia – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Buildmeupbuttercup – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Ghaiyyath made it 4-4 when winning the International Stakes at York last month. Earlier in the season he had won the Coronation Cup & the Coral Eclipse. Hard to see he him getting an uncontested lead as he had done in his previous races but he’s the one to beat.

Aidan O’Brien saddles three in last year’s winner Magical & Japan, was reported to have suffered from sore feet when running badly behind Enable in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last time. Ryan Moore has chosen him over Magical which could be significant. The third O’Brien horse is Armory who could well challenge Ghaiyyath for the lead.

French raider Sottsass adds further intrigue to the race. Last years Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) winner went on to finish third in last years Arc. Won the Group 1 Prix Ganay at Chantilly on his second start this season. Returned from a two-month layoff to finish 2^nd of 7 in a Group 3 at Deauville 28-days ago. That run will have put him spot on fitness wise. A reproduction of his Arc run would see him get into the places and he could be the one to take advantage should the favourite underperform. Trainer won this race in 2016 with Almanzor.

1pt win – Sottsass – 6/1 @ Bet365

5:15 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF ‘Sovereign Path’ Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 7f

Music To My Ears made it 2 wins from 6 runs when winning a mile handicap at the Curragh on her second start of the season. Improved on that performance when coming from last to finish a head 2^nd of 17 back at the same venue over 7f. Up 3lb but the filly can surely defy her new mark if the 7f here doesn’t prove to sharp a test. Can’t afford to leave as late as she did last time from stall 4. Is the one to best although she is short enough for competitive handicap like this.  

1pt win – Music To My Ears – 7/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Breanski managed to get into the places yesterday but sadly Broughton’s Gold just missed out finishing 5^th in his races.

The feature race on Day 3 of the St Leger Festival is the Group 2 Doncaster Cup at 3:15. I’m running behind schedule this morning so today’s post just concentrates on the races where I have selections.

Doncaster St Leger Fesival – Day 3

1.40 – bet365 Mallard Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6 ½ f

Alfaatik returned from a 455-day lay off to win at York three weeks ago. Even from a 5lb higher mark the unexposed 4-year-old will be tough to beat.

Sleeping Lion, trained by James Fanshawe, was a recent eyecatcher looks to be coming to the boil at the right time. Runner-up at Newcastle two starts back. He ran just as well when 3rd of 10 at Ascot last time Not for the first time I think 2m just stretches his stamina and a slight drop back in trip could help. His best performance on RPR’s came when winning the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster last September. That success came over the St Leger distance of 1m 6 ½ f. And a strongly run race over that trip looks to be his optimum trip. As does good to firm going, as his best turf RPR’s have now come on good to firm going. Hopefully the going will be quick enough today and he’s my selection against the likely favourite.

1pt win – Sleeping Lion – 5/1 @ Bet365

2:10 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6 ½ f

The record of three-years-oldin the race is an unappealing 1 winner from 23 runners 2 placed in the past 11 years which puts me off the well fancied Sunset Breeze and Musicality.  Of the pair my preference is for the latter. Today’s extra furlong will suit, as does a galloping track, as he showed when winning at Newmarket 14-days ago. Up 7lb for that success apart from the 3-year-old stat he’s high on the shortlist.

Ghalyoon returned from 399-day lay off to finish 2^nd off 11 here over 7f. It was an encouraging effort by the lightly raced 5-year-old who was having just his fourth career start. The slight drop in distance and a strongly run race should suit and he’s a big player.

Chiefofchiefs came from off the pace to win the Silver Wokingham at Royal Ascot, off 5lb lower, and ran another respectable race back at the same venue when 4^th of 19 in the International Stakes over 7f last time.  Remains on a competitive mark but trainer Charlie Fellowes has gone 34-days and 41 runners since his last winner.

Edgewood form figures since returning to action are 131. The 4-year-old is up 7lb for the latest of those wins at Hamilton. His improved performances have come on good to soft/soft but if he’s as effective on quicker ground is firmly in the mix.

Tranchee comes into the race in excellent form and has finished runner-up on his last two starts at Newbury and latterly Haydock 7-days ago. Today’s slightly shorter trip should suit and if he’s as effective on quicker ground looks set to go well again. Vulnerable to any unexposed types in the race but Ray Dawson takes off a handy 5lb and he’s got each way claims once more.

Verdict: I wouldn’t put you off the likely favourite Ghalyoon who remains capable of better. Musicality is a 3-year-old going the right way and should be thereabouts. Tranchee is an each-way player off the same mark as last week.

1pt each way – Tranchee – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was good to get the meeting off to a profitable start with Strait Of Hormuz coming from off a strong pace to land the 1m 2f handicap.

Here is a short preview of the day’s action and a handful of selections from the last three races on the card.

Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 2

1:40 – British Stallion Studs EBF “Carrie Red” Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6 ½

Plenty of possible improvers in this nursery handicap. Eve Johnson-Houghton saddled the winner of this race last year and her representative this year is Tattoo. A winner at Wolverhampton on her last start she should be suited by the extra half furlong and looks on a competitive mark for her nursery debut.

Nazuna looked good when winning here over 7f last month. The drop back to 6 ½ f shouldn’t inconvenience as she travelled powerfully through the race. Open to plenty more progress and is the one to beat.

2:20 – May Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 1m  

Zabeel Queen a winneron her racecourse debut at Ascot 47-days ago. Open to any amount of improvement she will be suited by the step up to a mile and is expected to go close.

Indigo Girl also won her racecourse debut at Yarmouth 11-days ago. A half-sister to 1m 4f, Group 1 winner Journey she’s bred to better as a 3-year-old. It was soft ground at Yarmouth but today’s better ground should be fine. She lacks a bit of experience but is an exciting prospect going forward.

3:15 – bet365 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 6 ½ f

The defection of likely favourite Alpinista means just the seven fillies are set to go the start. It’s an opportunity for Believe In Love to make her mark in Group company for the first time. A winner of her last three starts in handicap company she’s a rapidly improving filly who could easily make the step up into pattern company a winning one. Only seven runner’s mean’s the race isn’t great from an each-way perspective either.

For those looking for an alternative to the favourite Vivionn could be the answer. The Sir Michael Stoute trained 4-year-old finished runner-up in York’s Galtres Stakes last month. This is her first start beyond 1m 4f. However, more of a stamina test should suit and her full sister did win a Group 3 in Meydan over 1m 6f which gives hope today’s extra distance can bring out a bit more improvement.

1pt win – Vivionn – 15/2 @ Bet365

3:45 – Price Promise At bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Plenty in with a chance in a competitive looking 3-year-old handicap.

Jumaira Bridge is the bookies early bird favourite. The 3-year hails from a yard that has won this race twice in the past three years. Last time out the colt won a soft ground Chepstow maiden. The colt gets the first time cheekpieces today for a return to handicap company and could be capable of better.

Eastern World a winner over a mile at Newmarket back in June. He looked the most likely winner when coming to challenge a furlong out at York last time but faded into 5^th in the final 100yds.  A drop back to 7f could suit with the addition of the of the first time cheekpieces.

Persuasion a winner on his juvenile racecourse debut last season and runner-up, albeit well beaten, to Wichita in Group 3 last September. Predictably outclassed (250/1) when down the field in the 2000 Guineas on reappearance.  First run since for the colt since the Guineas. The booking of Frankie Dettori suggests a better run is expected on his handicap debut.

Broughton’s Gold has been in good form this season having won three of his four starts and bids for the hat trick today. Ground versatile he’s been nudged up 4lb for his last win at Newmarket but he doesn’t win his races by much so he could still be a head of the handicapper. Looks a solid each way contender.

1pt each way – Broughton’s Gold – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:15 – Jaguar Land Rover Doncaster JCT600 Handicap (Class 3) – 6f

The lightly raced Fresh ran the rapidly improving Starman to a neck at Lingfield two starts back. Before making a winning handicap debut at Kempton 23-days ago. Different surface today and 7lb higher but the 3-year-old is going the right way and if as effective on grass looks the most likely winner.

Jim Goldie had the one two here in the 5f handicap yesterday so Call Me Ginger must be respected. The 4-year-old bounced back from a poor Goodwood run to finish 5^th of 10 at Chester last time. This more galloping track will suit, as will a strongly run race and he holds each-way claims off what looks a competitive mark.

Breanski twice a winner here over 7f is another each way contender. The 6-year-old has run with credit on his last four starts over longer distances. He’s having just his second start over sprint distances but looks worth a go in what will hopefully be strongly run 6f.  Trainer Jedd O’Keeffe & jockey Andrea Atzeni combined for a win here yesterday.

1pt each way – Breanski – 9/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of Doncaster’s St Leger Festival. Which culminates with the final Classic of the British Flat season on Saturday and paying spectators are back on a British racecourse for the first time since March 17th.  It’s not going to be the pre-covid race day experience but it’s a step in the right direction.

Doncaster St Leger Festival – Day 1

Rain on Tuesday has turned the going from good to soft. However, it looks like it’s going to be dry and mainly sunny for the four days of the meeting.

1:40 – bet365 Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

A Boy Named Ivy won an Ayr maiden on his second start before finishing a close second on his nursery debut at Haydock. Given he was caught out wide he did well to get within a neck of the winner. He’s been nudged up 3lb for that effort but remains on a competitive mark.

1pt win – A Boy Named Ivy – 15/2 @ Bet365

2:10 – bet365 Scarborough Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f

The two juveniles receive plenty of weight from the older horses here but it’s still going to be tough for Acklam Express & Country Carnival against the likes of Dakota Gold and Moss Gill.

Dakota Gold bounced back to form when winning the Beverley Bullet. Before finishing runner-up to an improving 3-year-old at York on Sunday. Two of his career wins have come when running within seven days of his last start so the quick turnaround shouldn’t be a problem.

Moss Gill finished third behind Battaash in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes last month. It looks between the pair but preference is for Dakota Gold.

3:15 – bet365 Sceptre Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Jubiloso looked set for a big future when finishing third in last years Group 1 Coronation Stakes on just her third career start. However, she’s just beaten one rival home on her last two starts and ran no sort of race on her seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot. Has been given an 85-day break to freshen up and wouldn’t be surprise me if she bounced back to win.

A safer option looks to be Cloak Of Spirits who finished third in this year’s 1000 Guineas and has placed in Group 3 company on her last two starts at Epsom & Deauville. The drop back to 7f should suit and she can gain a well-deserved success if Jubiloso fails to give her running again.

1pt win Cloak Of Spirits – 5/1 @ Bet365

3:45 – Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

The most competitive race on the card and there are plenty in with a chance.

Rise Hall was a steady improver last season but hasn’t fired on either start this season. He’s 2lb below his last winning mark though and would be a danger to all, if returning to his best.

Caradoc wasn’t suited by the modest gallop at Ascot last time. Normally a hold up horse. A strongly run 1m 2f looks ideal and if the ground dries out, he’s a got a big chance.

Derevo’s ran better than his 6th of 15 at York last suggests, as he probably didn’t enjoy the soft ground. He’s better judged on his 4th of 18 at Goodwood two starts back and is a live contender.

Strait Of Hormuz gets in off bottom weight here. The 3-year-old is going the right way. Putting in a joint career best on RPR’s when 2nd of 14 at Chester 26-days ago.  Just 1lb higher, he’s unexposed over the distance and will be suited by a strongly run race. He could be the answer in a tricky looking contest.

1pt win – Strait Of Hormuz – 13/2 @ Coral

0.5pts each way – Rise Hall -20/1 @Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:15 – I’m happy to take a flyer here on Terentum Star. The 8-year-old ended last season with a win at Newbury (heavy) and can now race off 3lb lower. He’s dropped down the weights because he’s struggled on four of his five starts this season. Last time out he ran in the Goodwood Stewards Cup but prior to that was a slightly more encouraging 5^th of 12 at York.  Probably needs soft to be still in the going description to win but has each way claims at big odds.  

0.5pts each way – Terentum Star – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another frustrating day yesterday although I was pleased with my reading of most of the races.

I’m running late this morning so today’s post is shorter than I would like.  I have had a look at two of the races on the York card and the Mayo National at Ballinrobe.

York

1:30 – Thibaan looks a typical Sir Michael Stoute improving middle distance handicapper. A tidy winner at Doncaster last month he’s only up 4lb for that success and looks capable of more improvement on just his fifth career start.

Arctic Fox, trained by Richard Fahey, has been running with credit on her last three starts and gets the first-time visor in a bid to eke out that bit more improvement to enable her to get her head in front. Given her record at York – 2 wins from 3 starts, including C&D – she needs respecting and has each way claims if the first-time headgear works the oracle.

1pt win – Thibaan – 100/30 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

1pt each way – Arctic Fox – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (Paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:40 – Royal Content a winner at Southwell over 6f, 12 months ago. Looks to have improved nicely from two to three. Runner-up on his seasonal return at Haydock in June. He went one better at the same venue on his last start. Both those wins came over 5f but he should be just as effective over 6f.  Nudged up 5lb for his last success. The lightly raced 3-year-old is going the right way and should go close if as effective on a quicker surface.

1pt win – Royal Content – 5/1 – Gen

Ballinrobe

4:45 – Plenty of inform horses in this year’s Mayo National with the likes Go Another One & Mindsmadeup both seeking the hat trick.

Peaches And Cream is the least exposed of the 15 runners over fences. The 5-year-old has just had the three starts over the larger obstacles. Last time out he improved to win a beginner’s chase at Wexford. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark and can go well for a yard among the winners.

There should be more to come from Young Turk, trained by Gordon Elliott, who bounced back to form when winning a Tramore Handicap chase three weeks ago. Up 6lb for that win but maybe capable of better over the larger obstacles.

Portmore Lough was an improving handicap chaser last season winning twice at Galway before finishing third in the valuable Troytown Chase at Navan last November.  Was just behind the leading group when falling five out at Galway on his seasonal return and can’t be discounted with the going in his favour.

Plinth in the same ownership as Portmore Lough is the choice of Mark Walsh. A winner here over hurdles the 10-year-old put in a good effort to finish 4^th of 14 in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan two starts back, before struggling back over hurdles last time. He looks on a competitive mark on the best of his form and a reproduction of his Kilbeggan run should see him in the money.

1pt win – Peaches And Cream – 11/1 – Gen

1pt win – Portmore Lough – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

I’m off tomorrow so let’s hope we can go out on a winner.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Really struggling for winners at present and back to the poor form of the first two weeks of June. Plenty of betting opportunities today so there’s a good chance we can turn things around today. Let’s start at Ascot where there are four competitive handicaps for punters to get stuck into.

Ascot

2:30 – Trainer Charlie Fellowes is struggling for winners but he did have runner-up here yesterday and his runners always seem to go well on Ascot’s straight course. He saddles Perfect Inch who struggled when stepped up to Group 3 company at Salisbury but prior to that she had put good effort to finish 2^nd of 9 at York. Now 5lb higher but she remains on the upgrade and can go well.

1pt win – Perfect Inch – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:05 – Just the 11 runners go to post for this valuable handicap over 1m 4f but it’s a strong field with the likes of Kipps, Shandoz and Grand Bazaar all capable of going well. Kipps gets the first time cheekpieces and if the headgear has the desired effect, he’s got the ability to go close. Shandoz returned from a 322-day lay off to win over C&D, beating Grand Bazaar in the process. He’s going the right way and has only been raised 4lb for that win. However, I think there is the proverbial Group horse in handicap in My Frankel, trained by Sir Michael Stoute.  Just the one start as juvenile behind Palace Pier and returned to action this season when beating recent Salisbury winner Nasraawy in a Leicester maiden. Improved for the step to 1m 4f when winning a Kempton novice under a penalty. It was a strong race at Kempton and has been given top weight for his handicap debut. That said I think he can go onto better things.

1pt win – My Frankel – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:40 – Spanish City doesn’t win very often for a horse of his ability but on his day he’s more than capable of going close here. Made a cracking return to action when 3^rd of 22, beaten just a length, in the Wokingham Handicap over C&D. Wasn’t disgraced when 7^th in the Bunbury Cup but put in a rare disappointing effort in the International Stakes here over 7f. If you forgive that run and he can reproduce his Wokingham performance he should be in the mix.

1pt each way – Spanish City – 10/1 @ Bet365

4:15 – Another big field handicap this time over 7f. Society Lion looked a horse worth following when overcoming a wide draw to win at Goodwood two starts back. Was sent of the 6/4 favourite for a hot handicap at Chelmsford and ran well to finish 3^rd of 14. That was his first start on the all-weather but the return to turf will suit and remains capable of better. In the same ownership is Blue Mist. The 5-year-old finally landed a big pot when winning the International Stakes over C&D 42-days ago. Prior to that had got no luck in the run when 9^th in the Silver Wokingham. A big field on a straight track really suits him so he has his optimum conditions and despite a 6lb penalty could be capable of defying his career high mark.

1pt win – Blue Mist – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Society Lion – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Haydock

The Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup is the race of the day but I’m going to concentrate on two of the handicaps on the card.

2:50 – The 1m 6f Old Borough Cup has a very competitive look this year with 17 declared to go to post. The going is soft and a bit of rain is forecast so I don’t think the ground will dry out. Plenty in with a chance.

Rhythmic Intent has improved for the step up to middle distances and last time out and ran out an impressive winner over 1m 5 ½ f at Newbury 20-days ago. Up 6lb which could be lenient and goes very well on soft ground.  

Future Investment is another who goes well with ease in the ground. Last time out he put in a career best effort when winning at Chester on his first run over 2m. Up 6lb for that success, demands more from the 4-year-old, and he drops back in trip but should run well again.

Diocletian an easy winner at Chester last September bounced back to something like his best back at that venue when 4^th of 6 in a Listed race back at the same venue 16-days ago. Soft ground suits and he’s a contender.

Australis improved on the all-weather winning at Wolverhampton on his seasonal return in June and then finished runner-up in the Northumberland Plate. He didn’t replicate that form when back on grass when only 5^th of 10 at Ascot last time. He may not have been suited by the quick ground that day. Yet to race on soft ground but he’s got the physique to do well on it. He can’t be ruled out if handling the surface as he looks on a nice weight.

Cape Coast an improving 3-year-old middle distance handicapper, returned from a mammoth 1024 day lay off to finish runner-up at Catterick two starts back. He improved further when winning a competitive 1m 6f handicap at Newmarket 57-days ago. He’s lightly raced and although he’s up 5lb looks capable of more progress. William Buick takes the ride and given he’s a prominent runner should be suited by the track and has a handy draw in stall 4. Trainer Mark Johnson won this race in 2012.

1pt each way – Cape Coast – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

4:00 – Come From The Dark won over C&D, on soft ground, 12 months ago before finishing a close up 2^nd of 17 at Ascot a month later. Only returned to action at York 17-days ago when down the feld on good ground.  The race was probably needed that day and better can be expected on today’s surface. Trainer form is a slight concern but he can’t be discounted.

Aplomb is another who goes very well on soft ground and gets it for the first time this season. Hasn’t been disgraced in big field handicap on much quicker ground than he likes although struggled at York last time. The first time cheekpieces are applied and if they have the desired effect, he’s more than capable of landing a handicap like this of his present mark.

Militia comes into the race at the very top of his game having won his last three starts. This a much better race but he’s only been raised 4lb for his last success and his improvement may not have ended just yet.

Count D’orsay reallyhit form last autumn when getting an easy surface, winning at Ripon and Catterick sandwiched between those wins he was an excellent 2^nd of 22 at York. Hasn’t had his ground on his four starts this season and has dropped down to his last winning mark. Can’t be totally discounted and has place claims, if bouncing back to form.

1pt win – Aplomb – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Ascot

3:40 – Look Closely made it 3 from 7 and 2 from 2 over C&D when winning here 27-days ago. Up 3lb for that success, all his career wins have come on good to firm and the drying ground is in his favour The 4-year-old is going the right way and although 3lb increase in the weights makes life tougher I think he can win again and hold off the even less unexposed Labeebb.

1pt win – Look Closely – 4/1 @ William Hill

4:50 – Gin Palace won his first two starts of the season at Newbury & Newmarket before disappointing when only 10^th of 19 here in the International Stakes off today’s mark, two starts back. Showed that he could be competitive of this mark when an excellent 2^nd of 15 at Sandown 13-days ago.  Given his wide draw in 16 that day. He did well to get within a neck of the winner. It was a career best effort on RPR’s last time and he remains on the upgrade.

1pt win – Gin Palace – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Haydock

5:25 – Two recent Daily Punt eyecatchers Cockalorum & Lunar Jet run in this 1m 2f handicap. The latter looks to be about to hit winning form but the forecast soft ground just makes me side with the first named here.  Cockalorum’s best three turf RPR’s have come on soft at around today’s distance. Last time out was back to his best when 4^th of 15 in a Class 2 at York. Drops back a couple of notches in class today and a reproduction of his York effort would be good enough here. Granted the yard could be in better form but the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is hardly a negative to the 5-year-old’s chance.

1pt win – Cockalorum – 9/2 @ Bet365

Down Royal

3:10 – Mere Catherine looked much improved for the step up to 1m 3f when winning at Killarney 16-days ago. Interesting that trainer Dermot Weld opts to step the filly up to 2m 2f here. Up 5lb for that last win, a useful 7lb apprentice has been booked to negate that weight rise.  If her stamina holds out, she will be tough to beat. There should be no issues with the distance for winning hurdler Shanroe. The 6-year-old is unexposed on the level, just the two starts, winning a Limerick maiden on his return from lockdown before finishing 2^nd of 13 at Leopardstown on his handicap debut over 1m 7f last month. Up just 1lb for that effort and should be firmly in the mix here if handling today’s soft ground. Has won on good to soft but has yet to run on soft or worse.

1pt win – Shanroe – 11/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Indigo Times plugged on into the placings in the lucky last at Wolverhampton yesterday evening.  At a BOG 12/1 I can’t really complain as the bet produced a small profit. Today’s selections runs at Newcastle.

Newcastle

4:45 – Boudica Bay wins her fair share of races on the turf 5 wins from 19 starts over 5f. Yet to win on the all-weather but she only had two runs on the synthetics and was a good second over C&D on her seasonal return in June. That run provides plenty of hope that the mare can win on the surface. Fourth at Chester 20-days ago she comes into the race in form and for yard that is 4-13 31% +30.83 7 placed 54% in the past 30-days. Vulnerable to any better handicapped horses in the field but has each way claims.

1pt each way – Boudica Bay – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The post York dip in form continues and all three of yesterday’s selections didn’t run as expected.  Today I have an ante post selection for the Saturday’s Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup and one running in the lucky last at Wolverhampton this evening.

Wolverhampton

8:45 – Indigo Times might be a six-race maiden but he’s shaped with a bit of encouragement for the step up to middle distances of late. Was slowly away over 1m 6f last time and didn’t the get the clearest of passages when making his effort two furlongs out. A further step up in distance promises to suit and I think he can go close here. 

1pt each way – Indigo Times – 9/1 @ Bet365

Ante Post Advice:

Saturday September 5th 2020

Haydock 

3:25 – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f

Tabdeed is ightly raced for a 5-year-old, just the eight starts with five wins, he looked a much-improved horse when winning the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury last month. Granted he’s got a few lbs to find with the likes of Dream Of Dreams & Hello Youmzain but he’s going the right way and is open to a bit more improvement. Really soft ground would be an unknown but he will be suited by the likely fast pace. At around 10/1 he looks a bit of each way value.

1pt each way – Tabdeed – 10/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet.

Cheers

John