Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

It’s a Saturday to savor with Newmarket taking centre stage. We have two mouthwatering Group 1’s for juveniles which should provide plenty of clues for next year’s big races and the 29 runner Cambridgeshire Handicap to look forward to.

ITV are covering the four big races at Newmarket. Plus, two at Haydock and one from the Curragh. I have had look at all the races on the terrestrial channel.

Showers are forecast around the UK today but it’s hard to say how many will hit Newmarket & Haydock. The going at the time of writing at Newmarket is good, good to soft in places. While Haydock is reporting good to soft which could ease significantly if there’s a lot of showers around.

Let’s begin today’s preview at where else but Newmarket.

Newmarket

1:50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m

Just the five go to post but it’s still intriguing contest. New Mandate has benefitted from a gelding operation and showed a good attitude to win a Listed race at Doncaster 15-days ago. Different ground today and tries a mile for the first time. He can be keen in his races though which means he will probably need a good pace to chase to allow him to settle.

At the prices I like the Mark Johnston trained Gear Up. Unbeaten on both starts at York. He won the 7f Group 3 Acomb Stakes last time out and it was stamina that helped him to prevail that day. There are slight doubts about the Acomb form and just 1 winner of that race from 18 runners have gone onto win their next race.  However, today’s extra furlong will suit the son of Teofilo and he should go well.

1pt win – Gear Up – 9/2 – Gen

2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) – 6f

A competitive looking renewal of the race with eight fillies declared to go to post.

Favourite Miss Amulet has the best form having won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York last month. Ryan Moore takes over on the Irish raider and she looks a worthy favourite.

Dandalla has won all her three starts but she has been off the track since winning a Group 2 on the July Course 78-days ago. If she’s at her best she won’t be far away.

Happy Romance & Alcohol Free were first and second in a Group 3 at Salisbury 23-days ago. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. However, the runner-up was only having her second start and could have more scope for improvement than the winner.

Umm Kulthum is an improving filly who came from the rear to win a Group 3 at Ayr last Saturday. If this race doesn’t come to quick, she a contender.

3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Eight go to post for what looks a good renewal of the race.

Lucky Vega has got the best form and has a favourite’s chance. A winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes two starts back and looked a shade unlucky in the run when 5^th of 10 in the National Stakes 13-days ago. With a clear run he would have finished second. Suited by some ease in the ground he’s the one they all must beat.

Method posted an excellent time when winning a Listed race at Newbury and has scope for more improvement. 

Minzaal was visually impressive when winning the Gimcrack at York last time. The form of that race has taken a few knocks since but 6 of the last 23 winners of the Gimcrack went onto win their next start and if you backed them all you would have made a £7.71 profit to a £1 level Stake. He might not turn out to be the best of these long term but he could have too much speed over 6f for his seven rivals.

Supremacy won the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood 58-days ago. Like Gimrack the form of the Vintage Stakes can be questioned but he remains a contender.

3:35 – bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 1f

The big betting race of the week and the first part of the ‘Autumn Double’. You can make some sort of case for most of the field.

Tempus has won both his starts this season (first in the Stewards room). He carries a 4lb penalty for his last success Ascot, a race last year’s winner Lord North prepped in. Has won on good to soft so won’t be inconvenienced if the rain arrives. Progressive and a big player.

Bell Rock has been my idea of a likely winner of the race since he made it 2-2 on the Rowley Course on his seasonal reappearance in June. He stormed away from his rivals that day over a mile and showed he stays 1m 2f when 3rd of 18 at Goodwood last time. First run on going slower than good but he handles it he won’t be far away from stall 24.

A strongly run 1m 1f could well suit Derevo who just found an improver to strong at Doncaster (1m 2f) last time. He’s probably is better on good or quicker ground though.

William Haggas has a strong hand with Sinjaari, Montatham (14/1), and the improving Ilaraab who won last Saturday. Montatham could turn out to be the best of his three runners. Progressive in big field handicaps this summer. He wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in small field Listed race at Sandown 10-days ago. The ground was a shade to quick for the 4-year-old that day and he will be better suited by today’s conditions.  Drawn on the far side and racing beyond a mile for the first time but is a solid contender.

The more rain the better for King Carney who made a good handicap debut when beaten just ¾ length by Tempus at Newbury 42-days ago and now gets 6lb from Tempus.  A useful juvenile. winning a soft ground Listed race at Pontefract last October. Needs to improve to win but he’s a 3-year-old so it could be forthcoming. He’s closely handicapped with the likely favourite and twice that one’s price.  William Buick takes the ride. Each way claims from stall 9.

The 3-year-old Lucander who put in a career best when beating 14 rivals at York last month on soft ground last month. Going the right way, he seems fairly ground versatile but as he showed last time soft ground does suit.

Verdict: A race where you could have three picks and not get any of them into the places. My three darts at the race are Bell Rock, King Carney & Lucander.

1pt each way – Bell Rock – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – King Carney – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Lucander – 20/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

4:10 – Rookie trainer George Boughey had had a great 2020 with 25 winners from 125 runners + 42.89. He saddles Mystery Angel who was a taking winner at Wolverhampton last time. Nursery & turd debut today but looks on a workable mark off 72 and could be well drawn in stall 17. Hopefully the filly can provide the trainer with another winner here.

1pt each way – Mystery Angel – 10/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Haydock

ITV are covering two races from Haydock. They may lack the quality of the Newmarket races but they are wide open handicaps. It will be interesting to see how the ground rides at Haydock today if the showers arrive.

2:05 – Alternative Fact put in a career best when winning over C&D back in June, off 4lb lower. Best form on soft ground and should be far away again.

Danyah has been steadily progressive on his last three starts winning at Doncaster (good to soft) before finishing third on his last two starts at Newbury & Ripon. Looks capable of winning off his present mark.

Milltown Star improved for getting soft/heavy ground last Autumn. The 3-year-old returned form 284-day break with a promising 4^th of 8 at Goodwood (soft). Not quite as good on quicker ground at Doncaster 16-days ago but a return to softer ground and a step up to a mile should see him go close.

1pt win – Milltown Star – 8/1 @ Bet365

2:40 – Count D’orsay & Come Form the Dark were first and second in a similar race over C&D three weeks ago. The latter was only having his second start of the season and is fancied to reverse placings with the winner. Both are suited by soft ground and Count D’orsay really hit form at this time last season and his form figures on soft or good soft going are 11211. His stablemate Copper Knight is well handicapped on his best form and is 7lb lower than when beaten a short head at Newmarket (good to firm) on his seasonal reappearance and can’t be easily dismissed. However, he was only 7^th behind his stablemate last time. Mid Winster bounced back to form when winning at Ayr 9-days ago (good to soft). She’s 5lb higher here but did win off a higher mark when trained in Ireland last season. Unproven on ground worse than good to soft.

1pt win – Count D’orsay – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

3:10 – Commanche Falls looked an improver when winning at Thirsk on good to soft on his seasonal return. Didn’t build on that on his next two starts but bounced back to form when winning over C&D 16-days ago. Now 5lb higher in a better race but shouldn’t be far away with cut in the ground. 

Quick Look is in with a good chance should the ground soften further. The 7-year-old has been running well without winning. Finished 4^th of 15 at Ripon 25-days ago. Danny Tudhope has been booked for the ride and he’s 4 wins from 7 rides 57% +9 when combining with trainer Mick Easterby in the past two seasons.

1pt win – Quick Look – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

3:15 – Alan Smurfit Memorial Beresford Stakes (Group 2) – 1m

Aidan O’Brien has won the last nine running’s of this juvenile contest. He saddles three here in High Definition, Brazil & Sir Lucan. The first named impressed when winninghere over a mile on his racecourse debut last month. Looks a smart prospect and is the short priced favourite. Brazil improved for the fitting of the blinkers when also winning a maiden here last month. There should be more to come from him like High Definition. Wuqood, trained by Dermot Weld could give the O’Brien runners most to think about. The son of Dubawi is bred for middle distances but showed a good attitude to win on his racecourse debut at Gowran Park 45-days ago. Needs to have improved plenty for that initial run but he’s an exciting prospect.

4:50 – This is a cracking handicap.  Jassaar won the Irish Cambridgeshire over C&D last season, off 1lb lower. Only beat one rival in this year’s race but that was on heavy ground and his best form has come on a sounder surface. Gets the first-time visor today and he can’t be ruled out if the ground was to dry out.

Dance Jupiter beat the much-improved Patrick Sarsfield on his second career start last October. Now with Joseph O’Brien the 4-year-old returned 343-day layoff to finish runner-up at Galway 18-days ago. Well suited to soft ground and could be nicely treated for his handicap debut.

Mythologic two best runs this season have come over C&D and was beaten less than two lengths into 6^th in this year’s Irish Cambridgeshire. Capable of winning a handicap off, 2lb lower with Gavin Ryan taking off an additional 3lb, when all the cards fall right but he’s 1 win from 17 runs.

Quizical was 2^nd of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire. Can race off the same mark here and shouldn’t be far away again.

Mudlahhim, in the same ownership as Jassaar, has only had the five starts. Yet to win, he finished runner-up to 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia on his 2-year-old debut and made a highly promising handicap debut when 2^nd of 13 at Tipperary, off 2lb lower, 12-days ago.  

1pt each way – Mythologic – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Mudlahhim – 16/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Listowel

2:50 – Humm Baby is 2-5 here at Listowel. The mare made an encouraging seasonal return when 3^rd of 12 at Cork. Not quite as good when 5^th of 18 at Punchestown 18-days ago but for mistakes at the third and second last hurdles she would have finished closer. Wouldn’t want the ground to get any softer but if it doesn’t, she won’t be far away at a track that suits.  

1pt win – Humm Baby – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day 2 of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting. The going eased on Thursday morning to good, good to soft in places. The day’s action looks better than Thursday’s although the field sizes remain on the ‘smallish’ side. ITV are covering four races from Newmarket this afternoon and you can read my thought on them below. All in all, a cracking day’s racing with the prospect of even better to come on Saturday.

Newmarket

1:50 – Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m

The ante post market is headed by the 5-year-old Ummalnar who hasn’t been seen since winning an Ascot handicap 440-days ago. Might be good enough to win if ready to roll after long absence.  Trainer William Haggas has won this race three times since 2014.

Clock of Spirits third in the 1000 Guineas over C&D on her seasonal return hasn’t really built on that performance on subsequent runs. Drops into Listed class and back to a mile today after 7f to short at Doncaster 16-days ago.

John Gosden saddled the winner of this 2015 & 2016 and has two declared this year in Bizzi Lizzi & Indie Angel. The former looks the more likely of the pair with Frankie Dettori opting to ride the 3-year-old. She’s unbeaten on both her career starts and it’s interesting that the trainer ups her in class here given her handicap mark is 84.

Bounce The Blues twice a winner over 7f at Naas this summer, the latter of those wins in Listed company. Has since switched to Andrew Balding and was keeping on well to finish 3^rd of 15 at Doncaster 16-days ago, finishing two places in front of Clock Of Spirits. Has a 3lb penalty for her Naas success to carry but will be suited by today’s easier ground. Capable of going close if staying the mile.

Verdict: Bounce The Bluescan go close if she stays the mile. Bizzi Lizzi looks the best of the Gosden pair. However, the lightly racedUmmalnar has a Group 1 entry and could be the best of these fillies.

1pt win – Ummalnar – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Just the six fillies & mares are set to meet the starter. The form pick and favourite is Alpinista who finished runner-up to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Franconia looked a useful filly when winning a Listed race at York in July but was well beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks. That surely wasn’t her true running and if you forgive that effort, she’s a strong contender. Trainer John Gosden has a good record in the race – 4 winners from 12 runners 33% +12.88 8 placed 67% – since 2010.

Sir Michael Stoute saddled the winner of this race in 2013. He runs the progressive Katara.  The 3-year-old has won her last two starts, at Kempton and latterly a Listed race on the July course. Looks worth her first go in Group company. Her Newmarket win came on good to firm so softer would be an unknown.

Antonia De Vega has won on soft ground and his 2-2 in Listed company. Looked like she needed every inch of the 1m 4f to win on her seasonal reappearance at Pontefract 102-days ago. Goes well fresh and soft ground will being her stamina into play.

3:00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 7f

Monday built on the promise of her racecourse debut when winning a Leopardstown Listed race 13-days ago. Looks a smart prospect for next season over 1m+. Might need further than 7f but should be good enough here.  I have already backed her each way for next year’s 1000 Guineas.

Alba Rose impressed when winning at Thirsk (good to soft) last time and has the scope to make up into a high class 3-year-old. She takes a big step in class here but I wouldn’t be surprised if she got into the money.

3:35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 1f

Eight have been declared for the race of the day and it’s a cracker. They include last year’s winner Benbatl who makes his long-waited return to action. Goes well fresh won this race last year off even longer lay off.  Big chance of another win in the race but wouldn’t want the going to soft.

This year’s race looks tougher than 12 months ago with 2000 Guineas winner Kameko in the field. Kameko is the class horse of the race and should be suited by the return to mile. However. he does have a 5lb penalty to carry for his Group 1 success and soft ground would be a unknown for the colt.

No issues with soft ground for the improving Top Rank. The 4-year-old stayed onto strongly for his six rivals when winning a soft ground Group 3 at Haydock 20-days ago. He won a handicap over C&D 12 months ago so we know he handles the track.  He’s going the right way an deserves to take his chance in a Group 2.

Tilsit has won his last two and improved for his first start on the turf when winning a Group 3 at Goodwood (good to firm) 56-days ago. Given he’s only had the three career starts he’s open to plenty of further improvement. Has a similar chance to Top Rank, on a line with My Oberon, and at the weights doesn’t have much to find with Benbatl & Kameko. Different ground today than at Goodwood but a big plater if handling it.

Verdict: A cracker of a race. I’m hoping the forecast rain arrives overnight as the softer the ground the more I like the chance of Top Rank.

4:10 – Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes (Listed Race) 1m 4f

Loxley heads the official ratings and the ante post betting.  It’s his first start since winning the Group 2 ‘City Of Gold’ at Meydan in March and should go close if ready roll after a break.  

Stablemate Walton Street returned from 405-day lay off to finish runner-up at Lingfield 13-days ago. Will be sharper today and doesn’t have much to find on ratings with the favourite.

Laafy is improving with racing and put in a career best on RPR’s when carrying top-weight of 10-0 to victory in a Class 2 handicap at Ascot three weeks ago. Looks worth the step into pattern class and is suited by ease in the ground.

4:45 – A field of nine are declared for the 1m 1f handicap that concludes the card and there are plenty in with a chance.

Make It Rain made it 2-2 on the synthetics, a maiden on grass after four starts, when winning at Wolverhampton 12-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success. That shouldn’t stop the3-year-old but softish ground may do. Yard’s horses are going well at present.

Kattani a winner (good to yielding) when trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld. Has yet to win on her three starts for Michael Appleby but has finished runner-up on her last two runs and put in a career best when 2^nd of 12 at Newbury 7-days ago, under James Doyle who keeps the ride today. The first two pulled clear of the third that day and she can race off the same mark here.

If the Stuart Williams yard was in better form, I would like the chances of Marrionnier.  A winner on heavy at Epsom 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The 4-year-old was an eyecatcher when hampered and not getting a clear run in the final furlong at Sandown two starts back. On a competitive mark and can’t be ruled out.

Breath Caught was 2^nd of 13 at Epsom 83-days ago. Might find this trip on the short side but can’t be totally discounted off 3lb higher than last time.

Wild Hero won a 7f Leicester maiden (good to soft) in July and hasn’t been disgraced on either start back in handicap company.  Slowly away at Chester last time when finishing 3^rd of 8, 14-days ago, and shouldn’t be far away again.

Both Mosakhar’s win have come on the Fibresand but the 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 8 at Redcar on first run on turf last month. That was his first start since February so he’s entitled to improve for that run but needs to if he’s to trouble better fancied rivals here.

Verdict: Kattanihas been knocking on the door on his last two starts and can hopefully go one better this time.

1pt win – Kattani – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

There’s also some good racing at Listowel and Dundalk today.

Listowel

3:15 – Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m

Golden Spear a previous C&D winner. Has run plenty of good races over both hurdles and on the flat but is on a losing run that goes back to November 2018. Despite being a 9-year-old he showed he was still capable of running well at good level when 3^rd of 20 on the flat at the Galway Festival. Nicely handicapped on his best form and can go well.

Nibblers Charm is 1-1 over C&D and found plenty to power away from a big field when winning a handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival. Has run respectably on the flat since his Galway win and although he’s 12lb higher than for his last success looks capable of big run on ground that will suit.

Getaway Gorgeous looks on a good mark for handicap hurdle debut. The mare is a novice but she’s won two of her last three starts over hurdles and is improving with racing. Her jumping will be tested here against some experienced handicappers.

Verdict: Nibblers Charm has each way claims after a good win at Galway on his last start over hurdles but Getaway Gorgeous looks well handicapped for her handicap hurdle.

1pt win – Getaway Gorgeous – 5/1 @ Bet365

4:25 – Southampton Goodwill Plate Handicap Chase – 2m 6f

Minella Times just failed to get into the Kerry National. A winner at Navan (soft) back in December off 8lb lower. He then ran well to finish 2^nd of 16 at Limerick over Christmas. Not been seen out since finishing well beaten in a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown 236-days ago. Surely better than that run and can go well fresh.

Owner JP McManus also has Bay Hill in the race. The 9-year-old has a good record at the course with form figures 31314. A solid 4^th of 15 in the Galway Blazers last time. That was only 9-year-old’s fifth start over fences so he remains unexposed over the larger obstacles. Mark Walsh prefers him to Minella Times. Good chance in the re-applied cheekpieces if he stays the 2m 6f.

Treacysenniscorthy won a C&D beginners’ chase 12 months ago before going on to improve and win four handicap hurdles on the trot between November & February, including making all to win a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Leopardstown. Ended last season with good effort to finish runner-up in novices handicap chase at Navan. Down the field over hurdles Punchestown 16-days ago but better expected and the 8-year-old looks well handicapped over fences off a mark of 124.

Verdict: Minella Times & Bay Hillgive J P McManus a strong hand in the race. Treacysenniscorthy lacks chasing experience but he’s got the build for the larger obstacles and he looks well treated on last seasons high class handicap hurdle form.

1pt win – Treacysenniscorthy – 11/2 @ Bet365

Dundalk

6:45 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Diamond Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2 ½ f

Vatican City looked set for a good season when finishing runner-up in the Irish 2000 Guineas on his seasonal return. Hasn’t really gone from that performance but was 3^rd of 10 in a Group 2 at Leopardstown last time. No issues with the surface as he won her last October.

Crossfirehurricane is 2-2 at the track. The 3-year-old won his first four starts and improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh on his first start since the end of lockdown. Probably didn’t stay when down the field in the Irish Derby (8/1).  First run for 90-days but he goes well fresh.  Could return to winning ways back down in trip. Stablemate Bolleville won a Listed race at Leopardstown three stars back before being slightly outclassed when 5^th of 11 in a Group 1 at Deauville. Was doing her best at the finish when 4^th of 11 to Cayenne Pepper in a Group 2 at Leopardstown 12-days ago. Seems progressive and has each way claims if she handles the surface.

Bowerman is 2-2 here including C&D and shouldn’t be far away although he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field. The same applies Simsir who won here last September before finishing runner-up over C&D last December. Was beaten a length into second by Bolleville. In the mix if he gets a good pace to chase.

Verdict: The Joseph O’Brien pair of Crossfirehurricane & Bolleville look the biggest dangers to favourite Vatican City with a slight preference for proven Dundalk performer Crossfirehurricane who remains open to further progress.

7:15 – Both Major Reward’s career wins have come here, including C&D. Hasn’t been disgraced on his last three starts in valuable handicaps on grass. Better expected returned to the synthetics but stall 15 isn’t a positive.

Golden Valour is 2-5 over C&D. The latest of those wins came in March off 5lb lower. Not so good on two starts on turf. since Another expected to go well back on the surface and has a handy low draw.

Brinjal has yet to place on her six career starts. However, she put in a career best effort when 5^th of 15 behind the improving Baron Samedi at Navan 15-days ago. She will surely win a race off her present mark. Ran well enough when 4^th of 14 in a maiden here back in December so the surface shouldn’t be a problem for the daughter of Kingman.

Wilderness won her first three starts this season before finishing runner-up in the Ulster Oaks and Naas. The mare couldn’t dominate when down the field in a valuable Curragh handicap last time. If she bounces back, she’s on a competitive mark for her first start on the synthetics Stall 17 isn’t great for a front runner.

Eaglemont placed in two competitive maidens before disappointing when favourite at Navan 15-days. Handicap debut and first run on the all-weather for the lightly raced 3-year-old. Big weight to carry but claimer Mikey Sheehy takes off a handy 7lb. Another drawn high in stall 12, so will probably be ridden for luck.

Verdict: Wide draws are putting me off Major Reward and Wilderness. Eaglemont is interesting on his handicap debut but will probably need luck in running from his draw. Both Golden Valour and Brinjal have handy draws and looks the ones to focus on.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Day one of Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meeting. It’s an eight-race card and ITV are covering four races from HQ, as well as two from Pontefract. I have to say the Newmarket races don’t excite due to the small field sizes.

Newmarket

2:35 – Betsey Trotter beat 19 rivals at Thirsk 20-days ago. That success came on good to soft but she’s ground versatile. Now 6lb higher than last time but she did win off her present mark last October so she can remain competitive.

3:35 – Mildenberger is having his first start since finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle 110-days ago. He’s 2-3 on good to soft and is the highest rated of the five runners in the Listed race. His chance is obvious and he’s won fresh in the past.  He will be tough to beat.

4:45 – I was hoping the rain would have eased the ground as that would have enhanced the chances of Scottish Summit. If the ground remains on the quick side of good It’s hard to look past King Ragner. The 3-year-old put in a career best effort when 2^nd of 8 at Yarmouth eight days ago.  Gets the first-time blinkers today and if the change of headgear has the desired effect can go close again.

The most competitive race of the day is a 1m 4f handicap at Listowel and provides Thursday’s selection.

Listowel

3:55 – Baron Samedi has won his last three starts. He been raised 20lb for his last win at Navan but he’s a rapidly improving handicapper and he may not have reached his class ceiling just yet.

Persia was well fancied for a 1m 5f handicap at Leopardstown. That was his first start for 315-days but he was slowly away and could never get involved. He made steady headway to finish 8th of 19. In the circumstances he did well to finish within 3 ½ lengths of the winner. He will be sharper for that run and did win on soft at Galway last year. If he handles the forecast heavy won’t be far away.

One who won’t fear the mud is Layfayette. The 3-year-old looked to have improved for the step up to 1m 2f when winning at Navan 32-days. He’s only been raised 4lb for that win and raced last time like he would stay further. Has stall 15 to overcome if he’s to win this though.

Sayo, trained by Willie Mullins, is 2-2 with heavy in the going description over hurdles. Won over hurdles at Kilbeggan last month and ran well to finish 2nd of 18 on his last start on the flat. Now 5lb higher but remains on a workable mark and can go well.

Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone off the favourite Baron Samedi who remains progressive over today’s distance. I’m expecting a better run from Persia if he handles the heavy ground. The mud loving Sayo looks capable of winning off his present mark and can get into the money.

1pt each way – Sayo – 5/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A much better day on Monday with To Hard To Hold winning at Listowel and Red Gerry finishing third.

We have one of the first big National Hunt races of the autumn at Listowel this afternoon. The Kerry National, run over 3m, is the feature race of the Listowel Festival. There could be plenty of rain about at the venue today so it could be soft come post time.

Listowel

4:30 – Guinness Kerry National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

The inform Henry De Bromhead stable has two of the leading fancies in Plan Of Attack & Spyglass Hill. The former was ultra-consistent on his three starts last season. Finishing third in the Paddy Power and fourth in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. Spyglass Hill was pulled up after making a bad mistake in the Galway Plate last time.  Forgive that effort and you have progressive handicap chase last season on soft/heavy ground who will appreciate any rain that falls.

Doctor Duffy was the ante post favourite after wins at Kilbeggan & Ballinrobe (Mayo National).  He remains progressive but has a 10lb rise in the weights to overcome after his Mayo National success.

At bigger prices Internal Transfer was fourth in this race 12 months before pulling up when favourite for the Munster National at Limerick. A winner here over hurdles in the past. This looks to have been the plan for the 9-year-old as he had recent spin over hurdles, and the yard has won this race three times since 2007.

Freewheeling Dylan could provide the pace to the race. He made all to win the Midlands National at Kilbeggan, off 5lb lower on his last start over fences. Has run twice over hurdles since.  A previous C&D winner. He’s a good jumper and can’t easily be dismissed although this is a tougher race.

Verdict: There has been good support for Plan Of Attack in recent days but I just prefer stablemate Spyglass Hill, if the rain arrive sin time. At bigger odds you can’t rule out another big run from last years fourth Internal Transfer.

1pt each way – Spyglass Hill – 7/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – Internal Transfer – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There were no selections on Sunday. I was going to hold fire until Thursday and the start of the Cambridgeshire Meeting. However, the best way out of my present poor run is not to baton down the hatches but plough on. We’ll find out by the end of the day whether it was a good move or not.

Listowel

3:10 – Seventeen 4-year-old hurdlers are set to go post for an intriguing renewal of the Lartigue Hurdle. The top two in the weights: Cerberus & Fujimoto Flyer were top-class juveniles last season. The former has the benefit of a recent spin on the level when 3rd of 15 at Navan 11-days ago. While Fujimoto Flyer hasn’t run since pulling to hard when runner-up to Solo in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton 172-days ago. Both have the ability to win but there are a few improvers who could be better handicapped.

Red Gerry is one such runner. Just the four starts over hurdle. He we beaten 19 length by Cerberus on his hurdling debut last November but gets a handy pull in the weights today. Broke his maiden tag over timber when winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle 12-days ago. Looks to have a reasonable weight for his handicap hurdle debut. Looks like a strongly run 2m will be his optimum. There should more improvement to come although his jumping well be tested here. Yard has it’s runners in excellent form.

1pt each way – Red Gerry – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds).

Leicester

2:00 – Bella Notte caused a shock (66/1)when beating seven rivals including a couple of better fancied stablemates on her nursery debut 10-days ago. That win came over 7f but she travelled well enough to suggest she cope with drop back to 6f here. Only up 4lb for that success the odds compilers think her win was a bit of fluke but the time seems good so the form should be reliable.

1pt win – Bella Notte – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Warwick

3:45 – Dragon Khan was still very much in contention when hampered and unseating his rider four out at Southwell 18-days ago.  The 11-year-old is now 1lb below his last winning mark and if none the worse for that Southwell mishap has each way claims here.

0.5pts each way – Dragon Khan – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Hamilton

5:35 – Zealous is 1lb below his last winning mark and looked to be returning to winning form when 3^rd of 9 at Haydock 18-days ago. Back down to his last winning distance today and the 7-year-old should give his backers a good run for their money.

1pt win – Zealous – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Fairyhouse

6:25 – To Hard To Hold looked have bounced back to something like his best when staying on strongly from off the pace to finish 7^th of 17 at the Curragh two starts back. However, it was one step back next time as the 3-year-old never get involved at Tipperary 7-days ago. Both those efforts came over 5f and he looks worth another try over 6f. Each way claims if reproducing his Curragh run.

0.5pts each way – To Hard To Hold – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A busy Saturday with the Ayr Gold Cup and the Group 2 Middle Park Stakes at Newbury. Due to time I’m just going to look at the races where I have selections.

Ayr

1:20 – The form of the Tim Easterby yard means recent Ripon runner-up Intello Boy must be respected. However, my fancy in this 1m Nursery Handicap is last time out Musselburgh winner Heights Of Abraham. The colt had shaped with promise on his racecourse debut here two starts back before overcoming greenness to win at Musselburgh 24-days ago. Today’s extra furlong should be fine and he looks to be on a workable mark for his handicap debut.

1pt win – Heights Of Abraham – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:30 – QTS Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

The lightly raced Kings Lynn is a strong favourite for the Silver Cup. The 3-year-old has only had three career starts. A winner at Doncaster 12 months ago. He ran recent York Listed winner Starman to 2 ½ lengths on his seasonal return last month. He will strip fitter for that run and mark of 94, likely underestimates him on his handicap debut.

Last year’s winner Golden Apollo is 3lb higher but showed he could be competitive of his mark when 2nd of 12 at York back in July. Big run expected from the ground versatile 6-year-old.

Bernardo 0’Reilly hasn’t been the most consistent of horses but he stayed on strongly to beat 14 rivals at Doncaster 9-days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but it was almost a career best effort from the 6-year-old.

Atalanta’s Boy also has a 5lb penalty to carry for a decisive success at Goodwood 20-days ago. The 5-year-old can be slowly away in his races as he has been on his last starts but looks the sort capable of landing a big handicap like this.

Verdict: Kings Lynn could be a very well handicapped horse but at the prices I prefer the claims of last time out winners Bernardo 0’Reilly & Atalanta’s Boy.

1pt each way – Bernardo 0’Reilly – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Atalanta’s Boy – 9/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

3:40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

This year’s renewal doesn’t look as competitive as the Silver Cup. Nevertheless, it will be tough to find a winner as ever.  

Nahaarr looked a sprinter on the up when winning at Newbury two starts back but could only finish 9^th of 27 when 3/1 favourite for the Goodwood Stewards Cup. If you forgive that run, he’s got a good chance although might need the ground to dry out further.

Staxton bids for the hat trick after his recent win Ripon’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap. A 5lb makes life tougher but can’t be easily dismissed given his yard present form.

Hey Jonesy bounced back to form when winning the Wokingham handicap at Royal Ascot off 5lb lower. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race 3 winners from 26 runners in the past 10-years. Well below that form in the Stewards Cup last time but a reproduction of his Wokingham run makes him a contender.

Ryan also saddles Bielsa. The 5-year-old was sent off the 5/1 favourite for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. A poor run there and subsequently in two small field races at Haydock, the most recent after a wind-op is a slight concern but a return to last season’s best would see him go close.

Arecibo can normally be guaranteed to run his race in these big field sprint handicaps without winning, as he did once again when 4^th of 22 in the Portland Handicap 7-days ago. The first-time eye shield and returning blinkers replace the cheekpieces which is interesting. He probably needs to be placed on the line to win and is 0-9 over 6f.

Wise Counsel doesn’t have too many miles on the clock, just the ten runs and three wins. The last two of his wins have come at 7f and the last of those successes came at this meeting 12 months ago off 6lb lower. Just the two starts this season and shaped with encouragement for this when 8^th of 16 at Ascot 14-days ago. Get’s the first time cheekpieces for a return to 6f and this could well have been the plan. Trainer Clive Cox won this race in 2009.

Verdict: Arecibo has the ability to go close but finds winning hard. Hey Jonesy and Bielsa are contenders for Kevin Ryan and my preference is for the latter who looks the sort to land a big pot like this. Wise Counsel looks interesting dropped back to 6f and in the first time cheekpieces and this looks to have been the plan.

1pt each way – Wise Counsel – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Bielsa – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

4:15 – Johan looked the type for good handicap when winning at Newbury three starts back. Bombed out when last of 16 at York last time. If you forgive that run which was too bad to be true then he has a good chance here.

1pt win – Johan – 13/2 @ Bet365

5:25 – National League caught the eye bounced when 3rd of 13 in the Doncaster 7f handicap 9-days ago. His effort can be slightly marked up as he didn’t get the clearest of runs when making his effort inside the final furlong. Looks competitive off the same mark and trainer Richard Fahey saddled the winner of this in 2012 & 2015.

1pt win – National League – 6/1 @ Bet365

Newbury

2:15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Good Birthday was third in last years Cambridgeshire off 8lb higher and could be about to hit winning form.

Ilaraab bids for the four timer here.  Up 6lb for his last success and this is a much tougher race but the lightly raced 3-year-old may not have stopped improving just yet.

Tenbury Wells just failed by a short head in his hat trick bid at Sandown 28-days ago.  That was a career best effort form the 3-year-old and he could be capable of better.

Kingbrook was 1 ¾ length behind Tenbury Wells at Sandown and gets a 3lb pull from him today.  That was the colts first run since switching to Ian Williams. He’s entitled to be sharper today and looks on a workable mark.

Maydanny so impressive when bouncing back to form at Goodwood struggled on soft ground at York last time. A return to a sounder surface will suit and he won’t be far away.

The City’s Phantom shaped with promise on both his juvenile starts last season. He was gelded over the winter and put in an a much-improved effort when winning at Yarmouth on his seasonal return 66-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but looks capable of more improvement and is at the right end of the handicap.

Verdict: The City’s Phantom is an intriguing runner with probably more improvement to come. Kingbrook should be better for his recent return to action at Sandown.

1pt win – The City’s Phantom – 17/2 @ Paddy Power

1pt win – Kingbrook – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The Bronze Cup is the feature race of Day 2 of a competitive eight race card at Ayr.  Not as busy on the betting front as yesterday.

Ayr

3:55 – QTS Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Call Me Ginger isn’t the most consistent of horses but will have his supporters and has finished runner-up twice this season, in the Scottish Stewards Cup and at Doncaster last week.

Alben Spirit & Abstemiouswere first & third at York (good) 12-days ago. Alben Spirit is now bidding for the hat trick after wins at York & Leicester. He’s only up 3lb for that last success and as a 3-year-old could be open to more improvement. Trainer Richard Fahey has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2009.

Abstemious is arguably better with some juice in the ground and gets 4lb from Alban Spirit. The first time cheekpieces are applied today and the 3-year-old is handicapped to land a race like this before the season is out.

Music Society won this race 12 months ago off 1lb higher. He hasn’t been in the same form on five starts this season but put in a more encouraging effort when 5^th of 15 at Ripon 17-days ago. This race has likely been the plan all season and the yard is in red hot form.

Helvetian bounced back from a couple of low key runs this season when 4^th of 12 at Haydock(soft) 14-days ago. He’s dropped down to a winning mark and today’s slightly better ground will be in his favour returned to 6f.  Each way claims at a big price.  

Verdict: Alben Spiritcould be capable of better still and should be favourite. He looks the one to beat.  Music Society has likely been aimed at the race and is handicapped to win again. At bigger odds I wouldn’t dismiss the chances of Helvetian.

1pt each way – Helvetian – 20/1 @ @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Music Society – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:25 – Ralphy Boy Two looked to be an improver when a ½ length second at Hamilton two starts back. Looked the most likely winner coming to the furlong mark over 1m 3f at Musselburgh 17-days ago but his stamina seem to run out and he could only finish 5^th. Drop back to mile looks a positive mood and the cheekpieces are applied for the first time this season. Yesterday’s easy winner Cassy O will be tough to beat if the quick turnaround doesn’t inconvenience but Ralphy Boy Two is an each-way suggestion here.

1pt each way – Ralphy Boy Two – 6/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

Newbury

2:30 – The defection of Fox Vardy meansit might be worth taking a chance with the John Gosden trained Humanitarian. The 4-year-old, a Salisbury novice winner last May, was thrown in the deep end when 7^th of 13 in last years Derby.  Was below that form when only 7^th of 8 in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.  Hasn’t been seen since Ascot but has been gelded and remains a horse with potential on his handicap debut.

1pt win – Humanitarian – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of the 3-day Ayr Gold Cup Festival which culminates on Saturday with the annual cavalry charge known as the Ayr Gold Cup. In normal years this would be the best attended meetings at the Scottish track. However, this isn’t a normal year and the meeting will be held behind closed doors. I have had a look at four races.

Ayr

2:30 – It looks like there should be a good pace for this 1m handicap. That would suit top-weight Phantasmal who broke his maiden tag at 12^th attempt when winning at Musselburgh just 5-days ago. Has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success but 5lb apprentice Ray Dawson has been booked which negates his weight rise.

1pt each way – Phantasmal – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:00 – Hajjam disappointed at Haydock 13-days ago. However, he always needs respecting back at Ayr where his form figures are 1121. The last of those wins came over a mile but he’s just as effective over 7f. Usually held up in his races he should get a decent pace to chase and has each way claims.

1pt each way – Hajjam – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:00 – Victory Angel broke a losing run that stretched back to August 2017 when winning at Musselburgh 11-days ago. The harder they go up front the better for the 6-year-old who has a 5lb penalty to carry for his last success. At his best on a sound surface, so the drier the weather the better his chance.

1pt each way – Victory Angel – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:35 – Dreams And Visions hasn’t been seen on the track since winning this race 12 months ago off 3lb lower. Looked capable of better that day and remains on a competitive mark with Ray Dawson taking off a handy 5lb. Back to back win a serious possibility if fully tuned up.

1pt each way – Dreams And Visions – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There are Listed races at Sandown and Yarmouth today and it’s the former race that provides today’s tip.

Sandown

3:35 – Zaaki won twice in Group 3 company last year with both wins coming on good to firm going. A solid 3rd of 8 behind Century Dream on his reappearance. Not at the same level on his last two starts but his last run at Haydock can be excused as he was too keen over 1m 2f. A return to fast ground is a positive, as is the drop back to a mile. Can go close for an inform yard.

1pt win – Zaaki – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sonaiyla ran on to grab some place money in the Flying Five at the Curragh yesterday. But I had to wait until the lucky last for Sonnyboyliston to provide the service with a winner.

A bit of a frustrating weekend as I missed out both Mr Lupton and Search For A Song in the Irish St Leger. It’s been a few tough weeks for the service but there’s no excuses, I just haven’t been in form. However, there have been some positives to be taken form the last few days, less selections, and signs that things are about to turnaround.

It’s going to be a quieter on the tipping front this week and it looks like my first selections for the week will be at Sandown on Wednesday.

The three-day Ayr Gold Cup meeting gets under way on Thursday and culminates on Saturday with the annual cavalry charge of the Ayr Gold Cup.

Newbury hosts a two-day fixture on Friday & Saturday with the highlight being the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. There are sure to be selections from both meetings.

There are no selections today and I’m not sure there will be any tomorrow either. However, do keep an eye on your inboxes for any updates.

Cheers

John