Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

I fancy so many today it’s scary, especially given my present run of form. Anyway, you will be relieved to know I would be putting up nearly 20 selections.

It’s Day 2 of Future Champions Weekend at Newmarket and with it the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. Another very tricky Juvenile race like yesterday’s Fillies Mile.  There’s also the 34 runner Cesarewitch Handicap to get stuck into. A race where you could back five and still not get one into the places. Add in some big field York handicaps and you can see why it will be either a very good day or a bit of a nightmare punting wise.

Newmarket

2:55 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) – 7f

Fourteen juvenile colts have been declared for this year’s renewal which kind of indicates it’s an open race where no one fears anyone else add in soft ground and you have what looks a very tricky puzzle.

Despite being by Wootton Bassett, I want to take on the unbeaten Chindit as being held up wasn’t the place to be yesterday. Ante post favourite Thunder Moon showed a good turn of foot to win the Group 1 National Stakes last month but connections are going to be working the course this morning to see if he will run due to the soft ground.

Alkumait looked a speedy colt when winning the Mill Reef Stakes last time but I’m not sure he will appreciate 7f on soft ground. The well regarded Fivethousandtoone was sent off the 5/2 favourite before finishing runner up in the Mill Reef. Today’s extra furlong will bring out more improvement in the Frankel colt and he did seem to handle soft ground on racecourse debut at Windsor.  I expect him to go well and can reverse placings with Alkumait here.

Aidan O’Brien saddles Wembley & St Mark’s Basilica who were second & third behind Thunder Moon in the National Stakes. There doesn’t look much between the pair. Wembley should go on the ground as he won a Roscommon maiden on heavy. On breeding he looks more like a future 3-year-old middle distance horse to me and he came from behind in the National Stakes. St Mark’s Basilica looks the more speedily bred of the pair. He won a Curragh maiden on soft and His sire Siyouni won on very soft. The ground at the Curragh may have been a shade to quick for him in the National Stakes. He can’t afford to give ground away at the start but if he gets off on level terms, he’s a lively contender despite Ryan Moore opting for his stablemate. I’m not sure why he’s drifting in the betting overnight but he’s becoming a bit of value.

Cadillac is dropping back from a mile after winning a Group 2 at Leopardstown last time. He seemed to like the good ground that day although I think it was more inexperience than soft ground that cost when runner-up on soft ground at the Curragh two starts back. His stamina could well come into play here and he’s a live one.

Verdict: I want to take on the front two in the betting. St Mark’s Basilica is a drifter in the betting but should go well and could prove best of the Aidan O’Brien pair. Cadillac is an each- way contender as is Fivethousandtoone who can improve for the step up to 7f.

1pt each way – Cadillac – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

0.5pts each way – St Mark’s Basilica – 22/1 @Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 2f

Coltrane won the Melrose Handicap over 1m 6f (good to soft) by 4 lengths on his last start. The handicapper has put him up 11lb for that easy win but he’s a progressive 3-year-old who should relish 2m in time although 2m 2f on soft ground at this stage of his career maybe asking too much of him. I think he remains well handicapped horse but he will to be to overcome his wide draw.

Lynwood Gold, trained by Jessica Harrington has fared a bit better on the draw front (22). He’s been running well in big field handicaps in Ireland this summer and will handle the soft ground. Just his second start beyond two miles on the flat and he didn’t seem to improve for it when 3^rd of 18 at the Curragh back in June. Had a recent spin over hurdles as a prep for this and  he’s high on the shortlist.

Rock Eagle has only had three starts since winning the Old Rowley Cup here two years ago. On a mark he can win off but he’s yet to race beyond 1m 6f and will be having his first start on ground worse than good. It’s also slightly off putting that Harry Bentley has opted for stablemate Future Investment. He’s unexposed as a stayer and won at Chester over 2m two starts back. Effective on soft ground but maybe he’s a more a Chester Cup contender.

Summer Moon was third in this race 12 months ago. He’s 9lb higher this time around but showed how well suited by a stamina test he is when beating 16 rivals at York over 2m at the Ebor Festival, off 4lb lower. Tough task under top weight but has a handy draw in stall 5 and is a guaranteed stayer.

Verdict: Despite his wide draw I must have the improving Coltrane on side. Last year’s third Summer Moon can get in to the money again and Lynwood Gold shouldn’t be far away if his stamina holds out.

1pt win – Coltrane – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Summer Moon – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds) – Sky Bet are paying 8 places.

York

1:30 – Coral “Racing Super Series” Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Heights Of Abraham a winner on soft ground at Musselburgh two starts back improved again when runner-up on his nursery debut at Ayr 21-days ago. The step up to a mile suited the colt and although he’s been nudged up 2lb for his Ayr he remains on a winnable looking mark.

1pt each way – Heights Of Abraham – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:35 – Coral Beaten By A Length Free Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

The improving Ilaraab bids for the five timer. He handles soft ground and a 5lb rise for his last win at Newbury looks lenient. The third home that day Kingbrook won the Old Rowley Cup yesterday so the form looks rock solid. Plenty in the colts favour then although the slight negative is that none of the last 22 winners of that Newbury handicap went on to win their next start.

Crystal Pegasus is another improver who bids for the hat trick after wins at Bath & Yarmouth. This is a better race and he’s yet to race on soft (good to soft winner). That said he’s going the right way and shouldn’t be far away.

Johnny Drama has finished runner-up on both his run over C&D including this race 12 months ago. Two poor runs in earlier in the season and he returns for the first time since a wind-op. Looks on a good mark on the best of last year’s form and has form on soft ground. If the wind-op has the desired effect the 5-year-old can go close but is up against some improving 3-year-olds.

Verdict: Johnny Drama like it here and is nicely treated on his best form but the improving 3-year-old’s Ilaraab & Crystal Pegasus look the more solid win contenders.

3:10 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

Mighty Spirit showed much improved form when making all to win Ayr’s Silver Cup three weeks ago. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but could be up to defying his new mark if as effective on soft ground. Stablemate Bielsa did well from a poor draw when 9^th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup on the same day. He’s well suited to soft ground. After last year’s efforts this season has been poor but his last run offered some hope. Irish raider Laugh A Minute put up his best performance of the season when coming from off the pace to finish 4^th of 22 in a valuable sprint handicap at the Curragh last month and has each way claims in a wide-open sprint handicap.

Verdict: Mighty Spirit could take some catching if in the same form as last time. The disappointing Bielsa has a race like this in him off his present mark and Laugh A Minute can’t be ruled out if backing up his recent Curragh run.

1pt each way – Bielsa – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Laugh A Minute – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Day 1 of the two-day Newmarket Future Champions Festival. The juveniles take centre stage with the Group 1 Fillies Mile today’s feature race and the Dewhurst Stakes tomorrow. There’s are strong supporting races over the two days with Old Rowley Cup and the historic Cesarewitch handicap two of the biggest betting races of the meeting.

ITV are covering eight races from Newmarket, York & Chepstow, who host the first big jumps meeting of the winter campaign, this afternoon. The going is being described as soft at York & Newmarket and at Chepstow.

Newmarket

1:50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) – 5f

Eleven 2-year -old’s are set to meet the starter for what looks an interesting renewal of the race. The market is headed by Method who was well fancied for the Middle Park Stakes here 13-days ago. Very keen in the early stages, his saddle slipped and he couldn’t run his race. He drops back a furlong in trip today. First run on soft ground but looks the one to beat. Acklam Express is real speedster. He won a nursery at Goodwood before following up in Listed company at York on his next start and was disgraced when 4^th of 8 against the older sprinters in the Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster last month. Bahrain Pride won his first two starts both on soft ground before finding the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes (good) to hot last time. He’s interesting back on rain softened ground. First Edition finished one place in front of Bahrain Pride at Newbury. The drop back to 5f looks a positive but soft ground is an unknown. The filly Royal Address has improved with each of her five starts winning nursery’s at Goodwood & Sandown before winning a Chantilly Listed race on heavy 11-days ago. This is hotter but she’s going the right way and will be suited by underfoot conditions.

2:25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 7f

Saffron Beach certainly knew what was asked of her when winning on her racecourse debut over C&D. Always in a nice position. She took it up a furlong out and stayed onto strongly for her 14 rivals. It was an impressive success and although she steps up from maiden company, the daughter of New Bay looks a useful prospect.

3:00 – Godolphin Stud & Stable Staff Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Glorious Journey can be a bit in and out performer. But the former Group 2 winner was on a going day when winning a Listed race at Newbury 21-days ago. Khaloosy so impressive when winning the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot on his seasonal return. Has been a beaten favourite on his last two starts in Group 3 company. The drop back to 7f could suit the keen going 3-year-old and he’s very a much player on going that should suit. Happy Power bids for a hat trick after wins at Salisbury and Goodwood (Group 3) and can’t be discounted for a trainer who won this race in 2014. German colt Namos has yet to win Group 2 company but wasn’t disgraced when 8^th of 12 in the Group 1 July Stakes. The soft ground will suit and he’s got each way claims in open race with Ryan Moore booked for the ride.

3:35 – bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1) – 1m

A fascinating race and there are a few questions to be answered. Shale and Pretty Gorgeous are very closely matched on recent running. The former beat the latter in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes on good ground. However, the latter had beaten Shale in a Group 2 on soft the time before. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pretty Gorgeous turned the tables on her old rival on today’s ground.  However, does he want a stiff mile just yet? No stamina issues for Indigo Girl could well turn out to be the best of these as a 3-year-old. She’s won both starts and came from behind to win the Group 2 Mill Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Looked a bit of a tricky ride at Doncaster which could have been down too inexperience. Can jockey Rab Havlin produce her at the right moment on a track that can be difficult for hold up horses? Isabella Giles won the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes here last time. This is tougher and there is question mark about a stiff mile for her at this stage of her career. On the plus she handles the track and soft going and looks a very useful prospect going forward. Dubai Fountain and Zabeel Queen were second & third behind Indigo Girl in the May Hill. There’s no reason why the former should reverse form with the winner. However, Zabeel Queen came into the race on the back of one career start a win in an Ascot maiden (good to firm). Sent off the 6/5 favourite she got no cover on the outside that day and is probably better than the bare result suggests. Soft ground is an unknown but the daughter of Frankel is certainly bred to win Group 1’s. Possibly hasn’t been favoured with draw again out wide in 11 but has each way claims again. A tough race and maybe one to sit out and enjoy.

4:10 – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f

It looks a strong renewal of what is normally competitive handicap for 3-year-olds. There are plenty of unexposed types in the 17 strong field.

Luncies has shown the benefit of a summer gelding operation winning a soft ground Haydock handicap before going onto win at Kempton last month. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but is improving and should find 1m 4f well within his compass.

Tritonic runner-up in valuable handicap at Royal Ascot (1m 2f) on his seasonal return.  Hasn’t been seen to best advantage in small field races on his last three starts. The 1m 4f trip poses a few questions but he looks worth another go over it.  No issues with the ground for the colt and a suspicion that he will be suited by a return to big field handicap. Trainer Alan King saddled last years winner

Sir Michael Stoute saddled the 2015 winner and his runner Galata Bridge is 3-3 since going handicapping. All three wins have come on the tapeta though so he needs to show his effectiveness on grass but even off 9lb higher can’t be ruled out.

1pt each way – Luncies – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

York

2:05 – Richard Fahey has a strong hand in this 1m handicap with Crownthorpe, last year’s easy winner off 1lb lower. His claims are obvious but less so are those of his stablemate the unexposed Baronial Pride. A decent juvenile he missed the whole of last season but returned from 452-day break to be an unlucky 4^th of 9 at Newcastle back in January. He also didn’t get the best of passages back at the same venue a month later. Goes well fresh, won on his juvenile racecourse debut, so another 233-day absence doesn’t put me off and has won on soft ground. Shapes like he will stay a mile and is my idea of the winner. Shelir is a solid enough handicapper won at Thirsk two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when a close-up third behind two improving 3-year-old’s at Ayr last time. Off the same mark here and shouldn’t be far away again.

1pt each way – Baronial Pride – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Shelir – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:40 – Favourite Moon has a favourites chance after his easy Haydock win over the distance and on soft ground, However, he did disappoint on his last start her two starts back. way. Strawberry Rock, trained by Hugo Palmer, is a middle-distance handicapper going the right way The 3-year-old still looked inexperienced and didn’t seem to handle the bend to well when making a winning handicap debut at Ripon 13-days ago. There was plenty to like about how he picked up for pressure two furlongs out and finished his race off.  Up 8lb for a 4-length success but he’s going the right way and is open to plenty more improvement for the step up to 1m 6f. Prince Alex has been well placed to win his last four starts. He’s up in class here but he goes well on soft ground and can’t be ruled out. Just a short head separated Zeeband and Ispahan at Thirsk last time. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both are unexposed handicappers and can go well although I just prefer the claims of Zeeband.  

1pt win – Zeeband – 13/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Strawberry Rock – 5/1 @ Bet365

Chepstow

3:15 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

The first Graded hurdle of the new jumps season. The claims of favourite McFabulous are obvious and trainer Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of race four times in the past ten years.  Philip Hobbs had trained two winners of the race since 2010 and both were making their hurdles debut as Everglow is today. The 5-year-old looked useful on his two bumper starts last season and is clearly highly regarded by connections to be making his hurdle debut in such a tough race. Getaround has won his last two start when making all at Perth 32-days ago. He will be fitter today and the slightly easier going should suit. Up in class here but is going the right way and doesn’t have too much to find with the favourite on official ratings.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Two non-runners at Ludlow yesterday and Bigmartre suffered the fate of all good each way bets by finishing 4^th.

On the eve of three good days racing, I have a couple of selections for you today.

Exeter

2:30 – Mr Medic lost his way after winning a valuable Ascot handicap chase back in November 2018. Which means the 9-year-old has now dropped 4lb below his last winning mark. At his best on good or quicker ground – 4 wins from 7 runs +26 compared with 1 win from 12 runners on good to soft or worse. He also seems best in the autumn with all five of his career wins coming between October & December (0 wins from 8 runs 0 placed outside those months). First run for 271-days but he’s 2 wins from 5 runs + 21 when returning from a 121 to 355-day layoff. A previous C&D winner he looks set for a good run if bouncing back to something like his best.

1pt win – Mr Medic – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Chelmsford

7:30 – Navajo Star is 3 wins from 4 runs + 12.21, form figures 1121 over C&D. The mare is having her first run at the track since winning over C&D in January 2019, off 5lb higher. Down the field at big odds on two starts, on turf, off a 466-day absence. The last of those runs came 11-days ago and mare is 6 wins from 16 runs + 34.26 10 placed when returning within 11-days of her last start ( 1-23 3 placed of a longer absence). Risks attached given her recent form but hopefully a return to the venue can see the mare bounce back to form.

1pt win – Navajo Star – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s some good jumps action at Ludlow with a couple of competitive looking handicap chases the highlights of a seven-race card at the Shropshire track.

Ludlow

3:20 – Tintern Theatre returns from a 684-day layoff but he’s well handicapped, 12lb below his last winning mark, if ready to roll. Two from two at Ludlow but may prefer the ground easier than good.

Bigmartre is also down to his last winning mark. No issues with good ground for the top weight as he’s 4-8 +34 on good ground. A 229-day layoff also shouldn’t be an issue either, as he’s 3-5 + 29.63 when returning from a 121+day absence. Stamina for 3m to be proven although this track will be helpful and the yard is among the winners.

Relentless Dreamer’s form figures around here are 521, including a C&D success back in December 2017. The 11-year-old has just had the three starts since winning at Cheltenham in October 2018, off 1lb lower. A dour stayer he may find 3m around here a bit sharp on good ground but a 325-day absence isn’t necessarily negative as he’s 2-5 – 3 places when returning from a 121 to 356-day break.

Verdict: Tintern Theatre is the most intriguing runner given his present mark. The overnight market suggests he will be fit enough after his long absence but how much ability remains. There are stamina doubts about Bigmartre but he’s got his ground and has each way claims.

1pt each way – Bigmartre – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places 1/5 odds).

4:30 – Morning Vicar was still travelling strongly when falling four out at Newbury on his chase debut last December. A winner here over hurdles. He looks capable of winning races over fences off his present mark.

Canelo is one of the most experienced of these over fences and won at the fourth attempt of asking at Huntingdon back in March. That win came on heavy but he’s also won on good ground in the past. Now 6lb higher and faces some unexposed chasing debutants types.

Ruthless Article was well suited to good ground over hurdles 3-9-6 places and looks the type to make up into a chaser.

Back On the Lash ticks the vital course and going boxes being 2-2+9 at Ludlow and 3-7 +17 on good ground. It’s the 6-year-old’s first run for 256-days but he should be ready to roll as he’s 2-3 +16 when returning from a 121+day break.

Now Look At Me is another who goes well on a sound surface. It’s the 6-year-old’s first run since falling over hurdles at Newbury back in December. He’s another who goes well fresh and has scope for improvement.

Demachine shaped with plenty of promise on his four starts over hurdle last season. He’s the type to do a lot better over fences and trainer Kerry Lee is 6-20 30% +21.45 with her runners over fences at the track.

Verdict: A fascinating novices handicap chase. Morning Vicar will surely win races over fences as will the likes of Ruthless Article and Now Look At Me. However, at the prices my two against the field are Back On The Lash and the Demachine.

1pt win – Back On The Lash – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Demachine – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Gold Trip (33/1) saved Arc Day when finishing 4^th in the big race on Sunday.

Plenty to look forward to at the end of the week and over the weekend. On Friday it’s the start of two days of Group 1 juvenile action at Newmarket with the highlight being the bet365 Fillies’ Mile, there’s also the Group 2 Challenge Stakes and the normally competitive Old Rowley Cup. It’s also the first big jumps meeting of the autumn/winter campaign at Chepstow with the feature race being Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle. ITV are covering eight races from Newmarket, York and Chepstow.

On Saturday it’s Europe’s premier juvenile race the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket and the marathon Cesarewitch Handicap. There’s also the Coral Sprint Trophy at York and another competitive day’s jumping at Chepstow.  ITV will be broadcasting seven of the day’s top races from Newmarket & York.

The big race action doesn’t end on Saturday either. It just switches over to Ireland with the Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh and T McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick.

To get us in the mood for what sure to be a busy weekend on the betting front there are couple of decent looking handicaps at Leicester this afternoon. Neither of today’s selections are big prices but I will be disappointed if one of them can’t win.

Leicester

2:20 – Just the six go to post for this 1m 4f handicap but it’s an intriguing race. Brentford Hope impressed when winning a 1m 2f Newmarket maiden last October on soft ground. Not disgraced on either start this season and has been gelded since his 3^rd of 9 behind My Frankel at Kempton 55-days ago. The return to soft ground should suit and he remains with potential on his handicap debut.

1pt win – Brentford Hope – 2/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:50 – Ainsdale improved for rain softened ground with an October hat trick (3-3 soft/heavy). Not seen out until finishing an eyecatching 4th of 11 at Haydock 10-days ago. That was promising effort from the 3-year-old who looks capable of winning another race. Trainer form isn’t great at present but he will do for me.

1pt win – Ainsdale – 5/2 @ Bet365

Not sure if there will be any selections tomorrow or Thursday so watch your inbox for updates.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Shame we lost Ascot as it meant it was a quiet day on the betting front. Half Light ran well to finish runner-up in the Sun Chariot and Ey Up It’s Maggie finished 8^th just two lengths from the places in the 2-year-old Trophy at Redcar. You she can a good race and will more races when she gets soft ground.  I thought Lullaby Moon would be tough to beat in the race and so it proved. Sometimes it’s worth just going with the obvious rather than trying to overcomplicate a race.

It’s Arc Day at Longchamp and Europe’s biggest horse race. We might have lost Love due to heavy ground and the four remaining O’Brien runners look like they won’t be running to due to contaminated feed issues. If those four don’t run than the race will take on a completely different look as two likely front runners in Serpentine & Sovereign won’t be in the field.

Despite concerns about the ground the defection of the O’Brien runners makes her task an easier one now.  I expect Enable to win now and I hope she does. History making it will be if she wins but in some ways the gloss will be taken away and not only because her win take place in front of a virtually empty Longchamp.

ITV are covering four races from Longchamp sadly one of them is an Arabian race!  I have a few tentative selections from some of the other races on the card.

Longchamp

1:50 – Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) – 1m

There are slight doubts about the participation of ante post favourite Pretty Gorgeous. That leaves the Richard Fahey trained Fev Rover as the most likely winner. I did fancy Thunder Beauty each way for the race. The daughter of Night Of Thunder won a Curragh maiden on her racecourse debut and ran well to finish 5^th in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes last time. She came with a good run on the outside and coming to the furlong mark and looked like she would finish third. Her effort slightly flattened out in the final 50yds or so but she still looked inexperienced in my eyes. Soft ground shouldn’t be a problem for the filly although heavy is anyone’s guess, and a today’s extra furlong will suit. Thunder Beauty will do for me.

0.5pts each way – Thunder Beauty – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) – 1m 4f

It’s going to come down to who loves the conditions.

You must wish Enable well in her history making bid to win the race for a third time. I would love to see her do it and her task will be eased by the defection of the four O’Brien runners.  

The softening ground has seen money come for Gold Cup winner Stradivarius.  You can understand why. A strongly run 1m 4f should really suit him and the more of a stamina test it is the more chance he has. I can just remember Gold Cup winner Ardross coming within a head of winning this in 1982. The price has now gone though.

My own ante post punt Raabihah was a shade disappointing when only runner-up in the Prix Vermeille. Whilst I think she will relish a strongly run 1m 4f. I’m not sure she will appreciate a likely slog in the mud.

In Swoop has strong German middle distance pedigree and won the German Derby on his third career start. Returned from a 62-day break to finish 2nd of 10 in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris on his last start. The more of a stamina test the better his chance.  One place behind him that day was Gold Trip he was having his first run since disappointing the Prix du Jockey Club. He’s no forlorn hope and he’s three times the price of In Swoop.

Verdict: In a race where attitude as much as ability will triumph. I’m not sure my ante post tip Raabihah will like the ground but you never know. At the prices now Gold Trip probably offers some value at 33s with bookies paying four places.

0.5pts each way – Gold Trip – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:50 – Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) – 1m 2f

Hard to look beyond Alpine Star who still looks to be improving and returns to her optimum trip here. Apart from Palace Pier she was the only one who seemed to handle heavy ground at Deauville, when runner-up in the Prix Jacques le Marois.  The unbeaten Tawkeel, a winner of the Group 1 Prix Saint Alary in June, returned from a 69-day break to win a Group 2 at Deauville on very soft in August. This looks like it’s been her target and she should give Alpine Star most to do.

1pt win – Tawkeel – 4/1 @ William Hill

4:25 – Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) – 5f

Glass Slippers won this 12 months ago and looks to have solid claims of back to back win in the race. The 4-year-old won a Group 1 at the Curragh last time when just doing enough to hold off tough filly Keep Busy. The latter has each way claims again and could be better drawn than the favourite. Another each way contender is the improving Air De Valse. The 4-year-old made it 3-4 over 5f whenwinning over C&D last month and is improving with racing.

1pt each way – Air De Valse – 11/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

4:55 – Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1) – 7f

One Master bids for a hat trick in the race and she looks to have a great chance of doing it. The 6-year-old is arguably in better form this year than she was 12 months ago. Dual Group 1 winning juvenile Earthlight heads the market after his win in a Group 3 here over the distance last month. He beat stablemate Tropbeau that day and the runner-up has each-way claims again.  Tropbeau was fourth in the French 1000 Guineas earlier in the season and has been doing all her winning on soft or very soft ground.

0.5pts each way – Tropbeau – 16/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Raaeq bolted home at Ascot and showed soft ground no terrors for the improving 3-year-old. More importantly my sole selection Rochester House bounced back to form, as I hoped, when winning the 2m handicap card on the same card.

Well its Arc Weekend with high class racing at Longchamp over the next two days. There’s also some competitive racing at Newmarket with the feature race of a seven-race card being the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes. Ascot has a six-race card with highlight race being the competitive Tote sponsored Challenge Cup a Heritage Handicap over 7f. Redcar has its richest days racing of the season with feature race being the 2-year-old Trophy with £56,710 on offer to the winner.

The going is soft at all three tracks and with more rain forecast it could even go heavy at one or two of them. ITV have a bumper eight race card to enjoy and are covering races from all three meetings. The channel will also be broadcasting four races from Longchamp on Sunday, including the Arc.

Onto today’s action and there’s plenty to get through. I shall begin the Saturday preview at Ascot where I have had a look at all four cases being covered on terrestrial tv.

Ascot

1:55 – tote.co.uk Rous Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f

Dakota Gold won this race 12 months ago and bids to give trainer Michael Dods a hat trick of wins. The 6-year-old is 4 winners from 6 starts on soft ground and has a good chance of back to back wins.

Maid In India beat Dakota Gold at Newbury last September. That win came on was on good to firm but she’s also won on heavy/soft so is ground versatile. Was a close-up 4^th in a Group 1 at the Curragh, behind Glass Slippers, last time and can go close.

Aljady made it 2-2 on soft when easily winning at Sandown two starts back and has since gone onto win at Beverley.  That success made it 2-2 over 5f for the improving 5-year-old who may not have reached his class ceiling just yet. The cheekpieces he wore at Beverley are discarded today.

Last Empire was beaten 1 ½ lengths by Dakota Gold in the ‘Beverley Bullet’ but she didn’t have the best of starts and did well to finish as close as she did from the rear. Has since finished 2^nd of 16 in fillies Listed race at Ayr 15-days ago. Could be capable of a bit more improvement and goes well on soft ground.

Verdict: I wouldn’t put you off Dakota Gold in his bid for another win in the race. At the prices I’m going each way Last Empire.

1pt each way – Last Empire – 11/1- Gen (Betfair Sportsbook are paying 4 places)

2:30 – tote.co.uk Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f

Logician last years St Leger winner easily beat one rival back at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance last month. He’s top of the Official Ratings and is the one to beat but really soft ground would be an unknown.

Morando won this 12 months ago and loves the mud. No doubt he will give his running but if Logician handles the ground, he should have to much class for 7-year-old.  

Highland Chief a winnerof a handicap here at the Royal Meeting, over 1m2f, could give the hot favourite most to do.  He’s finished runner-up to Mogul in a Group 3 at Goodwood and occupied the same position behind Pyledriver in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Needs to improve to beat Logician but he’s 2-2 on soft so the going won’t inconvenience the 3-year-old.

3:05 – tote.co.uk Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f

Seventeen have been declared to go to post for what’s a tight looking handicap.

Last year’s winner Kynren has been backed into favouritism for back to back to wins in the race. He’s 4lb higher this time around but ran a screamer to finish 5^th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup on his return from a short break. He won 12 months ago on soft so connections will be delighted that the rain arrived.

Raising Sand is sure to be there or thereabouts if the rain arrives before post time. The 8-year-old’s best five RPR’s have come on Ascot’s straight course with the best one coming over C&D, off 4lb lower.

King Ottokar’s connections will also be doing a rain dance over the next few days. The 4-year-old was an eyecatcher at Doncaster three weeks ago and was in process of running a big race when denied a run at the crucial time. He might be better over a mile but looks on a winnable mark.

River Nymph is a steadily progressive 3-year-old. He’s won his last two starts, the first over C&D and the second at Newbury (soft) last month. He’s 11lb higher now but further improvement can’t be ruled out.

David O’Meara runners in these big field handicaps always need respecting. He could saddle Shelir & Orbaan.  The former won at Thirsk two starts back before finishing third at Ayr last time. Not disgraced when 8^th of 19 in the International Handicap over C&D in July, off 2lb lower. Orbaan a 1m winner at York, off 3lb lower, back in July. Not so good since but did well to finish 4^th of 8 in steadily run race over mile here last time. A strongly run 7f on easy ground could really suit his running style.  

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Orbaan likes ease in the ground although this will be the softest ground he’s raced on. King Ottokar was an eyecatcher at Doncaster last time and the soft ground makes him interesting dropping back to a mile for trainer who does well with his runners on Ascot’s straight track.

1pt win – King Ottokar – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Orbaan – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:40 – John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

Cape Byron won this race 12 months ago, is 4-8 at Ascot and 4-5 with soft in the going description. First run since flopping over C&D in the Group 1 Champion Sprint 12 months ago on heavy.  Well being must be taken on trust but has won of a lay off in the past.

The Tin Man isn’t as good as he used to be but wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 13 in the Beffair Sprint Cup last time. Has won on heavy in the past and is capable of a big run over a C&D that he’s won three times over.

Brando is another former Group 1 winner who isn’t the force he used to be but will handle the conditions and can’t be totally dismissed down in class.

Snazzy Jazzy is 2-4on soft/heavy. He’s got a few pounds to find with principals but the going is in his favour and the first time cheekpieces are applied. If the headgear has the desired effect, he could run a big race.

Newmarket

I have had a look at two of the races at Newmarket being covered by ITV.

2:10 – British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

Be More won over 1m 2f at Sandown (good to firm) in July but made it 3-3 on soft when winning here over a mile last October. The 4-year-old is 3lb higher than her last win but should be competitive.

Moll Davis was a progressive 3-year-old and has run well on both her starts this season, First run for 113-days but won’t be far away if ready to roll. Has won on soft and placed on heavy in France 12 months ago.

Oti Ma Boati made it 2-2 when seeming to relish soft ground at Goodwood 36-days ago. Steps up to 1m 2f for the first time today but shaped last time like she would stay further than a mile. Very much on the shortlist for an inform yard.

2:45 – Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies & Mares) (Group 1) – 1m

Twelve fillies and mares are set to meet the starter for this Group 1 contest and but it looks competitive renewal.

Champers Elysees & Peaceful were first and second in the Group 1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. The former has been one of the most improved horses in training this season. More than capable of winning this if in the same form as last time.

Peaceful won the Irish 1000 Guineas before finishing a close-up third in the French Oaks. Handles soft ground and given the Matron Stakes was her first start for 69-days she could be sharper today. There shouldn’t be much between the two 3-year-old’s today.

John Gosden saddles Terebellum & Nazeef. Terebellum won here over 1m 2f on her seasonal return before running Circus Maximus to a head in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Hasn’t been seen since finishing third to her stablemate in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course 85-days ago. Goes well fresh so fitness won’t be an issue but she’s probably better on a sounder surface.

Nazeef won her first three starts this season but hasn’t been at her very best on either start since. Both those runs have come over 1m 2f and she will be better suited to returning to a mile. Good chance if returning to her early season form.

Billesdon Brook won this last year and the 1000 Guineas (2018) over C&D. A straight mile and a strong pace really suits the 5-year-old and she can never be ruled out here.

Feliciana De Vega, hails form the inform Ralph Beckett yard. The 4-year-old is one of the most interesting runners in the field. Lightly raced, just five starts, she’s having her first run since winning a Group 3 here over 1m 1f last October. Two from two at Newmarket and 2-2 on soft ground she remains open to more progress and is a lively each way contender.

French raider Half Light is another with each way claims. A winner of her first two starts this season she put in a career best on RPR’s when finishing a ¾ length runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauvile two starts back. Ground versatile but needs a career best to win this.

Verdict: You can’t rule out Billesdon Brook over her favourite C&D. The Irish pair of Champers Elysees and Peaceful have the best recent form coming into the race. The ‘Dark Horse’ of the race is Feliciana De Vega and both her and Half Light can get into the money.

1pt each way – Feliciana De Vega – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Half Light – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Sky Bet (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Redcar

3:25 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) – 6f

The usual big field for this valuable juvenile contest with 22 declared to run.  

Lullaby Moon handled heavy ground effectively when winning a Goodwood two starts back and improved again to run last week’s Cheveley Park third Umm Kulthum to two lengths in a Group 3 at Ayr two weeks ago. Might need an extra furlong now but it’s sure to be a stamina test on soft ground. Has a favourites chance and is the one to beat!

Shark Two One won a valuable sales race at the Curragh 20-days ago and must be respected with possibly more improvement to come. Trainer Richard Fahey has won two of the last three renewals of the race.

One who could run well at a big price is Ey Up It’s Maggie. The filly won a soft ground Catterick maiden on her third start and although she was well behind Lullaby Moon at Ayr last time she goes well in the mud. Trainer Tony Coyle has aimed her at this race and after her Catterick win he told the Racing Post; “she’s one of the best I’ve ever had.”

Verdict: Some time it’s worth going with obvious one and favourite Lullaby Moon will be a tough nut to crack if reproducing her recent Ayr run. At bigger price I can see Ey Up It’s Maggie outrunning her odds, on ground that suits.

0.5pts each way – Ey Up It’s Maggie – 33/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Good morning all,

Ice Lord got into the places at Salisbury yesterday so no damage done to the betting bank. There could be plenty of damage over the next two days with Storm Alex set to bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the UK. The going was being officially described as good at Ascot overnight. However, that seems sure to change this afternoon. With Ascot set to get between 45 to 50 mm over the next 36 hours, it’s going to be a potential minefield for punters.

I had a good look at the Ascot card yesterday and there are two competitive handicaps. However, the horses that I really liked are unproven on rain softened ground.

Ascot

3:05 – I was taken with Raaeq’s win at Sandown. He’s an improver who can more race but soft ground is an unknown for the 3-year-old. The same applies to Tiger Crusade who was 3^rd of 12 over C&D 68-days ago.

Ebury won over a mile here last September and showed he handled soft ground when 2^nd of 12 at Newmarket last November. The 4-year-old finished 6^th of 23 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, doing best of those drawn far side. Arguably put up a seasonal best when fourth at Sandown three weeks ago. Yard form is a concern but he’s talented enough to win a race like this.

Add in previous C&D winner Breanski who will be fine on the going and in the talented Herculean who returns from an 84-day layoff but looks on a competitive mark and you have a tricky puzzle to solve.

If the ground was good, I would have been with Raaeq here but the likely rain tempers enthusiasm. If the yard was in better form I would also like the claims of Ebury.

3:40 – Natural History returned form 734-day absence to win at Chester three weeks ago. If he doesn’t bounce, he looks the sort to improve for the step up to 2m. Rochester House has run poorly on his last two starts. However, a reproduction of his 2^nd of 15 at Goodwood over an extended 2m 4 ½ f would see him go close. He’s got placed form on heavy so underfoot conditions should be fine. All three of his career wins have come in field sizes seven or less and if he was to get an uncontested lead in front, he could be hard to peg back.

1pt win – Rochester House – 7/1 – Gen

4:50 – Soft ground is an unknown for the potential improvers Society Lion, Kings Lynn and Fresh. Cold Front is fine on the ground and shapes like the drop back to 6f will suit but that’s reflected in his price. Many A Star is getting better with racing and has won two of his four starts this season. He’s big scopey sort who we haven’t seen the best of yet and will more races. The 3-year-old would have been the pick here on good or quicker. Musicality showed a good battling attitude to win on soft ground at Newmarket two starts back. Bot so good on quicker ground at Doncaster last time. A strongly run 6f and a return to soft ground should see him go close but he’s vulnerable to any improvers.

So just the one selection today and he needs to bounce back from a couple of dire runs.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Welcome to a new month and if the weather forecasters are correct it’s going to be a stormy one.

A couple of nice winners last Sunday and hopefully some more this weekend. I have a couple running today at Salisbury that are of interest.

Salisbury

3:05 – Apart from a respectable seasonal return when 3rd of 8 at Newmarket. Ice Lord‘s recent from doesn’t have much to recommend it but the 8-year-old is now 12lb below his last winning mark which came in October 2018 and last season arguably his best run came 12 months ago when 2nd of 14 at Newbury. Both those runs came on soft/heavy ground and this previous C&D winner is too temptingly handicapped to ignore if bouncing back to form.

1pt each way – Ice Lord – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds).

4:15 – Vixen has yet to win on her eleven starts for Emma Lavelle but is another who’s dropped down to winnable handicap mark. The mare, a previous C&D winner (soft) previous three career wins all came when racing between 16 to 30-days since her last run and jockey Edward Greatrex is 3-7 +7.63 on the 6-year-old.

1pt each way – Vixen – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds).

I will be disappointed if one of them can’t get into the places today.

Good luck with your bets.

John

Hi all,

A much better Saturday than of late which could have been even better as I left Cheveley Park winner Alcohol Free out of yesterday’s selections.

Today’s racing doesn’t have the quality of most of this Summer’s Sundays but there are a handful of competitive looking handicaps.

Nottingham

4:25 – Bernardo O’Reilly bounced back to form when beating 13 rivals at Doncaster two starts back and was an eyecatching 6^th of 24 in Ayr’s Silver Cup 8-days ago, doing best of those drawn high. Needs a bit of ease in the ground and a strongly run 6f to be seen at his best. If he gets both he looks handicapped to win again. Roulston Scar having first run since a wind-op and 227-day absence but the 4-year-old returned from 104-day layoff to win in Meydan in January so goes well fresh. Hails from an inform yard and this prominent racer could be well positioned if the race turns out to be slowly run.

2pts win – Bernardo O’Reilly – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Roulston Scar – 15/2 @ Paddy Power

Curragh

2:30 – The lightly raced Breakfast Club is sure to be popular after his recent win at Cork. The 3-year-old was having his first start since switching to present trainer Dennis Hogan and although he’s been hiked up 11lb for his Cork success he looks the sort to improve plenty, if handling today’s slower surface.

A Step To Far has been one of the handicap success stories of the season and bids for the six timer. Well suited to ease in the ground and a strongly run 5f. The first time cheekpieces are applied today, to eke out the bit of improvement needed to defy a 3lb rise in the weights.

1pt each way – A Step To Far – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

5:20 – Sure Cert made a winning handicap debut when successful over 7f at Fairyhouse 6-days ago. Always in a prominent position she found plenty for pressure inside the final furlong. Should stay today’s extra furlong and although up 6lb for her Fairyhouse win she’s going the right way and can win again before the season is out.

1pt win – Sure Cert – 4/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John