Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

A pleasing day yesterday with the first & third in the 2m 5f handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. Need to maintain that form today. On what is another good of racing to suit both jumps and flat fans.

It’s the final Group 1 of the British Flat season with the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster alongside a second day at Cheltenham.

ITV are televising races from Cheltenham, Doncaster, and Newbury on a busy afternoon. I have selections from all three meetings. Let’s begin at Cheltenham and two competitive handicaps.

Cheltenham

3:15 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) – 3m

Tobefair won this race 12 months ago (heavy) on his seasonal return. The 10-year-old is 3lb higher than last year but Jack Tudor takes off a handy 5lb. He goes well fresh and although last years win came on heavy. His record on good or quicker is 6 wins from 9 runs so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be a problem for the veteran.

Trainer Harry Whittington had a big race winner yesterday with Rouge Vif and he has a lively contender in Sir Robbie who won a Uttoxeter handicap hurdle 20-days ago. All the 6-year-old’s career wins have come at Uttoxeter though. First run at Cheltenham but if he handles the track, he can go well off 6lb higher than last time.

A sound surface really suits Neville’s Cross who made it 2 wins from 2 runs when winning at Haydock 11-days ago. Up 12lb for that success but the 5-year-old is progressive and unexposed, just the five starts over hurdles, and can go close again on a sound surface.

Verdict: I really should leave these Pertemps Qualifiers alone but I do like three of the runners. Hard to split the three in truth. On good ground Neville’s Cross should be there. Tobefair goes well fresh and should be ready to roll today. Sir Robbie is going the right way and looks a decent each way price if he can replicate his Uttoxeter form at this venue.

1pt win – Tobefair – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Neville’s Cross – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1f

For me the most interesting race on today’s Cheltenham card.

Cogry is a bit of a standing dish around here. He won the race in 2017. Finished runner-up in 2018 and third 12 months ago. All those performances came on his seasonal reappearance so he shouldn’t lack for race fitness in Saturday.

Frodon is another Cheltenham specialist with 5 wins from 12 runs +27.25. He’s goes well fresh and handles most types of ground. Won’t be easy to defy top-weight but the 8-year-olds got a touch of class and a mark of 164 is workable, if ready to roll.

Manofthemountain made it 4 wins from 5 starts over fences when making a winning seasonal return to action at Bangor last month. A progressive handicap chaser. He seems ground versatile and although he’s 7lb higher looks the right favourite.

Cobra De Mai won a valuable handicap chase over 3m 2f here back in April 2019, off 2lb higher, and wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 23 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at this years Festival. Best three RPR’s have come on good ground so if the ground stays on the good side it will be in the 8-year-old’s favour.

Cloth Cap would be an interesting runner. The 8-year-old finished third in the 2019 Scottish Grand National. He didn’t win any of his four starts last season but put in a couple of good placed efforts at Ascot and Doncaster. Handles soft ground but his three career wins have come on good or good to soft. Looks on a winnable mark for his seasonal return.

Verdict: I wish I gone in for the good ground loving Cobra De Mai earlier in the week when he was double his present odds. Frodon has a touch of class and loves it here. Will he need the run though? That leaves Cloth Cup and early ante post favourite Manofthemountain as my two picks at present prices.

1pt win – Cloth Cap – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Manofthemountain – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

2:55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

Eleven are set to go to post for this year’s renewal.  Aidan O’Brien had 7 of the 18 declared at the five-day stage. He runs only one in Wembley. The ante post favourite for the race after his 2^nd of 14 in the Dewhurst. The colt goes on soft ground and can improve for the step up to a mile. He’s the one they all must beat on form.

One Ruler, trained by Charlie Appleby, won a Group 3 at Newmarket over mile two weeks ago. He’s going the right way and looks set for a big run.  

Megallan was three places and 3 ½ lengths behind One Ruler at Newmarket. He didn’t get the best of passages that day and is entitled to get closer to that one today. Has each way claims.

Andrew Balding saddled Kameko to win this last year and Elm Park in 2014. He saddles the twice raced maiden King Vega. The colt should improve for the step up to a mile. First run on soft but he should be fine in the ground.

Mac Swiney is rare Doncaster runner for Irish trainer Jim Bolger. The colt was well down the field in the National Stakes (Wembley was runner-up) on his last start. The ground was good that day at the Curragh. Prior to that run the son of New Approach had won a Group 2 at the Curragh on soft ground. The step up to a mile should bring out more improvement and he’s another with place claims.

Roger Varian won this with Kingston Hill in 2013 and he saddles Baradar who made it 2 wins from 3 runs when winning at York (soft) 14-days ago. Connections have supplemented the colt for the race which shows he’s clearly highly regarded.  Closely matched with Magallan on their running at Newbury last month. He’s 2 wins from 2 runs on soft ground and can go well.

Verdict: The obvious pick is Wembley. The others must improve to beat the favourite but there are few who can do so. The likely soft ground brings both Mac Swiney and Baradar into the mix. I have gone with the former each way at the 18/1 available with Bet365.

0.5pts each way – Mac Swiney – 18/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

Newbury

3:35 – Molson Coors Beverage Company Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) -7f

Existent seemed to relish the heavy ground when winning a Newmarket maiden 21-days ago. That was the son of Kingman’s first start since disappointing run in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Needs to improve further to win this but given this is just the colts fourth career start it’s a real possibility that he can.

1pt win – Existent – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A nice mix of racing today with Cheltenham hosting it’s first meeting of the jumps season. And where better to begin than at the home of National Hunt racing and competitive handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham

3:00 – quareintheair.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f

Dr Richard Newland saddled last year’s winner Duke Street and he’s got a lively contender here in handicap debutant Captain Tom Cat. The 5-year-old has returned from a 416-day layoff in cracking form, winning his last two starts in novice company at Uttoxeter. Steps up from 2m today but was strong at the finish last time so the trip should be within his stamina range. Both wins have come on good ground but seemed to handle soft ground on his point debut. 

The likes of Hijack and Hometown Boy look capable of winning more races this season. Exod’ela won on his handicap hurdle debut at Ludlow in February. Looked like the run was needed on his seasonal return at Hexham three weeks ago and could run a big race on a track that could suit.

Another capable of big run is Up The Straight. Third behind Siskin in a Listed race at Huntingdon in February. The 6-year-old won a second novice hurdle at Kempton a month later. He ran well for a long way on his seasonal return at Fontwell 20-days ago (two places behind Hijack). Very much a contender if there is enough ease in the ground.

1pt win – Captain Tom Cat – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Up The Straight – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Bentley Flying Spur Handicap Chase – 2m

Another competitive race. Market leaders Rouge Vif and On The Slopes will win more races this season. The former hails from last years winning yard and finished third in last season’s Arkle Novices Chase here. On The Slopes one his last two races of last season at Kempton. Now 7lb higher, He remains on a winnable mark and has form around here. Provided he doesn’t get into a pace duel for the lead he won’t be far away on his seasonal return. The likelihood of strong pace means this race could be set up for a closer like Ballywood who was a respectable 6^th of 18 in the Grand Annual at the Festival.

5:15 – An eighteen runner Conditional Jockeys Handicap hurdle concludes the card. Benny’s Bridge is 9lb higher than when successful in this race 12 months ago. First run since a beaten favourite in the Greatwood Hurdle but he won this last year on his seasonal return so fitness shouldn’t be a problem for the 7-year-old. Wild Max won his first two starts over hurdles at Taunton before disappointing at Musselburgh. He gets the first-time tongue tie for his handicap debut and looks set for a big run. Ashington also won twice over hurdles last season before placing in handicap hurdles at Musselburgh. On the latter occasion was an excellent 2^nd to Sebastopol. Only beaten ½ length and but for a mistake at the second last could well have won. Should be fitter for a couple spins on the flat and shapes like there’s handicap hurdle in him off his mark, if suited to Cheltenham.

Doncaster

ITV are covering two races from the South Yorkshire track this afternoon.  

2:40 – Vertem Investing In The Future Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Tranchee won here two starts back and the found only Gulliver to strong when 2nd off 22 at York 13-days ago. An inform handicap sprinter who should head the market.

Bernardo O’Reilly won over C&D last month, before finishing an eyecatching 6th of 24 in the Ayr Silver Cup. Only 5th of 7 at Nottingham last time. It may pay to excuse that Nottingham run on account of the field size and quickening ground. He’s a better horse in a big field and with juice in the ground neither of which he got last time.

Jonah Jones has been in good form since joining the Ed Walker yard this season. Last time out the 4-year-old put in a career best on RPR’s when 3rd of 11 at Ascot. Beaten a length, he would have finished closer but for being hampered a furlong out. Sent off the 100/30 favourite. The market support he received suggests he’s on a winnable mark. At around 5/1 he would be a bet but at 3/1 I can let him win.

Dazzling Dan struggled earlier in the season of a career high markbut has shaped with more promise on his last two starts. Was unlucky in the run when 4^th of 7 at Nottingham two starts back, one place in front of Bernardo O’Reilly, and occupied the same position when trying 7f for the first time at Leicester 10-days ago. A previous C&D winner he’s 8lb below his last winning mark.

1pt each way – Bernardo O’Reilly – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Dazzling Dan – 12/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:15 – vertem.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 6 ½ f

This looks between. improving last time out winners, Ocean Wind & Opera Gift with a slight preference for the latter.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Newmarket

2:45 – Fresh from Group 1 success on Champions Day. Trainer David Menuisier saddles Rewired in this Class 2 nursery handicap. Rewired had shaped with promise on his Newbury racecourse debut before going onto win on the AW at Lingfield 15-days ago. That win came over a mile and today’s extra 2 furlongs should suit the gelding. Soft ground is a bit of an unknown but he makes his nursery debut of what looks a competitive mark. Silvestre De Sousa is an eyecatching jockey booking – 3 wins from 4 rides 75% +14.88 when combining with the trainer.

1pt each way – Rewired – 8/1 @ Bet365 (If you have a Sky Bet account, they are 7/1 and offering a generous 4 places).

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just the one today but it’s a shortie.

Newcastle

3:00 – Fresh a recent eyecatcher when a strong finishing second at Ascot. Nudged up 4lb for that effort and having his first start on the tapeta (has won the polytrack) but the lightly raced and improving 3-year-old still looks the one to beat here.

1pt win – Fresh – 11/4 Gen

Cheers

John

Cheers

John

Hi all,

In what turned out to be a disappointing day. Brian Boranha ran on into the places in the Durham National and Lakemilan finished runner-up to an improver at Cork.

There will be the odd selection between now and Friday. So, keep an eye on your inbox’s for updates.

The weekend action looks good with Cheltenham’s first meeting of the winter jumps season on Friday & Saturday and the final Group 1 of the flat season with the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster.

On Sunday Aintree gets its season underway with the highlight being the Grade 2 Old Roan Handicap Chase.

Before all that there’s an interesting Listed race at Pontefract this afternoon.

Pontefract

1:45 – bfstallions.com Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m

Just the seven go to post for this juvenile contest which is a shame from an each-way perspective. Ralph Beckett saddled the winner in 2015 & 2018 and he’s got a contender in Iconic Queen. A winner at Chester (good to soft) two starts back she wasn’t drawn where the action was when 5^th of 16 behind one of today’s rival Mystery Angel in a valuable Newmarket nursery 23-days ago. Really testing ground is a unknown for the filly but she should be suited by the step up to a mile.

Percy’s Pride is the outsider of the field. The filly ran a cracker to finish 3^rd of 13 on her Salisbury racecourse debut (soft). Bred for middle distances, being a full sister to Blakeney Point she did well to get so close as she did over 7f at Salisbury. Should relish the Pontefract mile and goes well in rain softened ground. Up in class but she’s open to improvement and i fancy she can out run her odds here.

1pt win – Iconic Queen – 13/2 @ Sky Bet

0.5pts each way – Percy’s Pride – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 2 places ¼ odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I really enjoyed Champions Day and it was nice to see my preview highlight most of the winners.  I took Stradivarius & Dream Of Dreams on just went with the wrong outsider in the opening two races.

It’s Champion Hurdle Day today. Well the Welsh version at Ffos Las and there’s a regional National with the Durham version at Sedgefield.

Ffos Las

3:10 – Potter Group Welsh Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m

The drying ground has probably gone against the Harry Fry trained Lightly Squeeze. The 6-year-old was an improving handicap hurdler that season winning three times on soft ground. Was just in the lead when falling at the last in the Betfair Hurdle on good ground in February. Looks the sort to win more races this season and had a nice prep on the flat at Haydock last month.

1pt each way – Lightly Squeeze – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Sedgefield

4:33 – Paxtons Support The NHS Durham National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f

Brian Boranha won this race in 2018, off 5lb higher, granted he was only 4^th of 10 in the race 12 months ago, but is 8lb lower this time around. Was in the process of running a good race when falling at Catterick in the North Yorkshire Grand National in January. Possibly doesn’t always find as much in a finish as you would like but he’s got the good ground he likes and is to attractively handicapped to ignore.

1pt each way – Brian Boranha – 17/2 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cork

5:00 – coopsuperstores.ie Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 1 ½ f

Us And Them finished runner-up in Grade 1 novice chases both at Cheltenham and at Aintree two seasons back. Struggled in soft ground handicaps last season but bounced back to his best when 3^rd of 18 in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival in March (good to soft) and would have finished closer to the winner but for a bad mistake at the last. The 7-year-old’s best form has come on good ground in the past and he looks on a competitive mark here.

Lakemilan ran out an impressive winner of this race 12 months ago.He’s 9lb higher today but Simon Torrens does take off a handy 5lb. Has returned from a 299-day layoff with runs over hurdles and the flat and should be spot on fitness wise in his bid for back to back wins in the race.

1pt win – Lakemilan – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt win – Use And Them – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Naas

4:50 – Simply True put in a fine performance, in the first time cheekpieces when winning at Killarney 14-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 6lb for that success but 7lb claimer Sam Ewing has been booked for the 3-year-old which negates the weight rise. Needs soft ground or worse to be at his best but can go well again if the headgear continues to work. He’s been weak in the mark this morning which is a slight concern and is drawn out wide in stall 12 but he looks worth chancing as an each-way alternative to favourite Dance Jupiter.

1pt each way – Simply True – 14/1 @ Coral (paying 3 places 1/4 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Champions Day at Ascot and after yesterday’s miserable effort, it can only get better can’t it?  Apart from the six races at Ascot there’s the 5f Catterick ‘Dash’ and a 1m 4f Premier Handicap at Leopardstown.

The Champions Day action gets underway at 1:20 and I have had an in-depth look at the six Ascot races.

Ascot

1:20 – British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m

Looking at the betting. The 5/4 available about Stradivarius would be a bit of value for the 2018 winner, runner-up (beaten a nose) 12 months ago and third in 2017. However, he comes into the race after an abortive attempt at the Arc where he finished seventh.  Trainer John Gosden thinks he’s fine although it’s only 13 days since Longchamp. Will get a strong pace to chase and should win if the Arc hasn’t taken the edge off him.

The two renewals he didn’t win were won by an Aidan O’Brien trained horse. He has three entered in this year’s race:  Sovereign, Broome who hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in the Coronation Cup and Dawn Patrol. The latter named is the most interesting One bare rating he’s got plenty to find with Stradivarius. However, he has a 3-year-old and last time out he ran out a cosy winner of a 1m 6f Group 3 at the Curragh 20-days ago. The step up to 2m can bring out even more improvement in the ground versatile colt and he’s got each way claims.

Of the rest Spanish Mission made it 2-2 since switching to Andrew Balding when winning a weak Doncaster Cup (2m 2f) last time. He’s got a decent change of gear for a stayer and can’t be totally dismissed if the race got tactical. Maybe wants better ground than he will get here though.

Likewise, recent Irish St Leger winner Search For A Song into the mix. The fitting of the hood has really helped the 4-year-old and trainer Dermot Weld saddled the 2012 & 2014 winners of the race. This will be the softest ground she’s run on. If she handles it, she will be in the mix.

Trueshan takes a big step up in class here but goes well on rain softened ground and is progressive. Should be suited by the step up to 2m and could get into the places.

Verdict: I’m going to take on Stradivarius with something each way. Trueshan gets his ground and is open to improvement for the step up to 2m. However, I am going to take a chance with the improving 3-year-old Dawn Patrol.

1pt each way – Dawn Patrol – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f

Dream Of Dreams’s form figures since a gelding operation are 211 and the ante post favourite will be tough to beat after last month’s win in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Oxted won the Group 1 July Cup on his last start and has had a wind-op since Newmarket. First run on soft since his juvenile debut. Must prove himself on rain softened ground but Sire Mayson get horses that go well on soft and his dam also won on soft so he could still prove to be effective on it.

Glen Shiel put in a career best when finishing runner-up to Dream of Dreams in the Sprint Cup. As stiff 6f suits and he could give Hollie Doyle a first Group 1 success. Each way contender for sure on his Haydock run.

At a big price keep an eye on Irish raider Sonaiyla. A winner over 7f this season she put in a career best when third to Glass Slippers in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh last month. Doing her best work at the finish that day. She should be suited to the return to 6f and a bit of ease in the ground.

Verdict: Dream Of Dreams looks the most likely winner. Glen Shiel runner-up at Haydock is suited by a stiff 6f and can get into the money if reproducing his Haydock run. At bigger odds I’m happy to have a dart at Sonaiyla back at 6f.

1pt each way – Sonaiyla – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:30 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f

The likely favourite is recent Group 1 Prix de Royallieu winner Wonderful Tonight. That race was only 13 days ago though and all three of her wins have come on heavy ground. The drop back to 1m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience the improving 3-year-old but will this race come too quick for her after Longchamp.  

Dame Malliot goes well on soft ground as she showed when winning a Group 2 at Newmarket in July. Has since finished third in Group 1’s at Cologne and in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last month. Likely to face competition for the lead here.

Antonia De Vega has won her last two over 1m 4f in lesser company but has previous form at Group 1 level and deserves another chance at this level. Soft ground not an issue and the forecast strong pace will be in her favour

Even So improved to win the Irish Oaks back in July. She returned from a short break to finish 6th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille. On the bare form that run looks a shade disappointing but the slow gallop wouldn’t have suited the daughter of Camelot. Granted a better overall gallop she won’t be far away. Her Irish Oaks win came on good but she won twice on soft in the past.

Verdict: An opening looking race as the betting suggests. If this race doesn’t come to quick the improving Wonderful Tonight can win this. Irish Oaks winner Even So will be suited by the forecast strong pace and is better than she was able to show last time in the Prix Vermeille. The testing ground will also suit Antonia De Vega.

3:05 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

The defection of Kameko means Palace Pier is a best priced 4/6. I said after Palace Pier won Newcastle handicap on his seasonal reappearance that he could well end up the best 3-year-old colt. His two Group 1 successes at Royal Ascot and in the Jacques le Marois (heavy) have only firmed up that opinion and I think he will land a third successive Group 1 on Saturday. We could see a special performance from the colt today.

The others look like they are fighting it out for the places.

French raider The Revenant finished runner-up in the race 12 months ago. The 5-year-old goes very well on testing ground and looks to have been trained for the race.  Made a winning belated seasonal reappearance when winning the Group 2 Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp 14-days ago. Should make the places but Palace Pier will be the classiest horse he has faced.

Nazeef won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago. That win came on heavy so no issues with the ground for the filly and she’s won over C&D at the Royal Meeting. A perfect six from six over mile and is another with place claims.

Roseman a winner of a Newmarket Listed race on heavy last November. Made a promising seasonal reappearance when 4th in the Queen Anne Stakes over C&D at Royal Ascot. However, the 4-year-old didn’t build on that when only 7th of 9 behind Persian King in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly. First run for 90-day but he’s won of a longer layoff at Newmarket and could get into the money.

0.5pts each way – Roseman – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Verdict: I think Palace Pier will win this comfortably and the rest are fighting out for the places, Last year’s runner-up The Revenant will have his supporters on ground that suits. As will the filly Nazeef. At bigger odds don’t dismiss the claims of Roseman who will love the ground.

3:40 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – 1m 2f

Last year’s winner Magical is a best priced 7/4. The mare missed the Arc and last time out outpointed Ghaiyyath, with Sottsass back in fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes. A race she had won 12 months earlier. She will be tough to beat if at her best.

Mishriff has won all three starts this season, including the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) and last time out beat three rivals in a Group 2 at Deauville 63-days ago. The colt needs to have improved again but it’s possible given he’s only had seven career starts. How good is his French form? We shall find out later this afternoon.

Addeybb just found Magical too strong in this race last year. The fitting of the cheekpieces last year have been the making of the 6-year-old and his form figures are 12121121 since the headgear was applied. Returned from a short break to win a Listed race at Ayr last month under a 7lb penalty. Needs good to soft or worse and won’t be far away again. 

Lord North showed a potent turn of foot when winning the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, with Addeybb 3 ¾ length back in second. Wasn’t seen to best effect in the International Stakes at York when finishing third, one place behind Magical. Better expected back at Ascot where his form figures are 221. No problem with testing ground either as his form figures on good to soft or worse are 1211.

Pyledriver was underestimated in the betting when winning King Edward VII Stakes at the Royal Meeting and when successful in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. Possibly didn’t stay when a close-up third in the St Leger last month. Drops back to 1m 2f here which asks another question of the 3-year-old but as she showed at York, he’s a good turn of foot and can’t totally be dismissed.

Besides Magical Aidan O’Brien could saddle Epsom Derby winner Serpentine & Japan. The latter has been disappointing on his four starts this season. However, a return to the level of form that so him win last year’s International Stakes at York and finish fourth in the Arc would see him in the mix. First time this season that he gets ground worse than good and he won heavy ground at Listowel as juvenile.

Verdict: Arguably the race of Champions Day. Magical has a great chance of back to back wins in the race. Mishriff is open to more improvement. At bigger prices I can see Japan bouncing back to form provided they go a decent gallop. Lord North has arguably the best turn of foot in the race at the distance and he will be suited by the return to Ascot.

1pt win – Lord North – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – Balmoral Handicap – 1m

A maximum field of 20 for this normally competitive handicap on the straight course.

I fancied King Ottoker for the Challenge Cup here at the last meeting but that was abandoned. Looked unlucky in the run when 5^th of 12 at Doncaster on his last start. That run came on ground that would have been plenty quick enough for the 4-year-old, both his wins have come on soft. Just his second start in handicap company and will be suited by a strongly run race. Drawn near side in 22 though which may not be where he wants to be.

Raaeq is lightly raced, progressive and could still be a good deal better than his current mark. Showed he had no issues with soft ground when winning here over 7f last month. Has 6lb penalty   for that win which shouldn’t be an issue. Proven over a mile already so a return to the distance won’t be a problem. Drawn low in stall 5.

Tempus looked progressive when winning at Newbury and over C&D. Was then sent off the 9/2 favourite for the Cambridgeshire before finishing 6^th of 27. Now 2lb higher but back at Ascot and the return to a mile should be in the 3-year-old’s favour.  

Keats won a Listed race at Cork 18-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success and a big field handicap and testing ground ask further questions of the 3-year-old. Drawn near side in stall 21.

Ropey Guest finally won a race at the 13^th attempt when odds on favourite at Chelmsford. The 3-year-old has been model of consistency during his career without winning until last time. Has form on heavy and here, was sixth in last year’s Coventry Stakes and was 4^th of 12 in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on his seasonal reappearance and it looks his trainer has aimed him at this race.

Njord hasn’t had much luck in these big handicaps in Ireland this season. He’s 2lb lower than when 5^th of 20 in the Irish Cambridgeshire, goes well on testing ground and should go well.

River Nymph has won his last two, here and last time at Newbury. Both wins came over 7f but he’s finished his races off strongly enough to think he will stay a mile. Drawn middle to high in stall 14. Progressive but 11lb higher than when winning at Newbury.

David O’Meara has saddled two of the last three winners of the race. He saddles Hortzadar & Orbaan. Of the pair I like the claims of the latter. A winner over a mile at York back in July (good to soft). He was only 4^th behind Tempus on his last start but the race wasn’t run to suit him and big field and more strongly run race will suit. Drawn high in 20 and has a decent each way chance.

Prince Eiji represents the 2018 winning trainer Roger Varian. The 4-year-old ran well for a long way in the 1m 2f Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. Stamina seemed to run out that day. A strongly run mile could suit. A tough ask off 9-10 but at least he’s effective on soft ground.

Verdict: Raaeq could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap has to be high on the shortlist. The likes of Orbaan, Prince Eiji and Ropey Guest all have each way claims. The draw has slightly put me off King Ottoker. I hope I don’t come to regret leaving him out of my selections for the race.

1pt win – Raaeq – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Orbaan – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (5 places 1/5 odds)

A fantastic afternoon of racing which you can see on ITV. There may be a selection or two from Catterick & Leopardstown. If there are, they will be with you by 9am on Saturday morning.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After no selections yesterday. I’m back today with a few fancies.

Wetherby plays host to its first meeting of the new jumps season and it’s an intriguing looking card with some decent field sizes. The two handicap chases make most appeal from a betting perspective. There’s also one I like at Nottingham this afternoon’

Wetherby

4:10 – For a midweek handicap chase this is as competitive as it gets with 15 runners declared to meet the starter. Sky Pirate looked to be still going well when coming down four out in this race 12 months ago. He races off the same mark today and can be expected to go well again.

Storm Control readily out pointed Sky Pirate when the two met at Doncaster last December and gets a 2lb pull in the weights. No show on his seasonal return at Warwick 23-days ago. Will be sharper for that run as he was second time up last season. Ground versatile but both career wins have come when making all in small fields.

Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled last year’s winner and he has got Tintern Theatre here. The returns 9-year-old returns from a 684-day layoff but he’s well handicapped, 12lb below his last winning mark, if ready to roll. Was withdrawn on his intended seasonal reappearance at Ludlow last week on account of the quick ground. Best form has come going right-handed.

Philip Hobbs has won this race twice since 2015. He saddles Ecu De La Noverie & Awake At Midnight. The former ran well here on his seasonal return 12 months ago before winning here over 2m last November, off 8lb lower. His final two starts last season were over hurdles so there could be more to come from the 6-year-old over fences. Up in distance here but each way claims in the hands of Corinthian Mr David Maxwell.  

Awake At Midnight won first time up in 2018 and ran just once last year when disappointing at Sandown in December. Probably on a competitive mark but this is his first start since a wind-op and stamina for 2m 3 ½ f to be proven.

Verdict: Storm Control can win races this winter but might need an uncontested lead and small field to do so. Sky Pirate could well have won this 12-months and although he looks held by Storm Control on their Doncaster running this race set up could suit him better. Ecu De La Noverie may be capable of better over the larger obstacles, he has stamina to prove over this far but each way claims if ready to roll.

1pt win – Sky Pirate – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Coral

1pt each way – Ecu De La Noverie – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:15 – Another good handicap chase. Destined to Shine made it 2-6 over fences when making a winning seasonal return at Uttoxeter 10-days ago. Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that win but looks capable of being there or thereabouts. Previous C&D winner Movie Legend was my main fancy here but he’s now a non-runner. Vado Forte was an excellent 3^rd of 10 at Newbury, beaten short neck, in a pulsating finish in December. A three-time winning hurdler he’s 0-6 over fences, ideally needs a strong pace to chase and maybe softer ground but looks capable of winning a race like this for an inform trainer/jockey that are 11 winners from 27 runners 41% +13.50 when teaming up.

Verdict: Destined to Shine could find this tougher under a penalty but he’s had a recent run which could be vital and won’t mind the ground. A reproduction of Vado Forte’s Newbury run last December would see him go close on his return to action.

1pt win – Destined To Shine – 4/1 – Gen

1pt win – Vado Forte – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes

Nottingham

2:35 – Kryptos has returned from a near three-year absence in decent enough form. Yet to win beyond a mile but the was beaten only a neck at Chester over 1m 2f back in August. Raced on the unfavoured far side and ran better than his 15th of 27 in the Cambridgeshire suggests last time. Soft ground suits and he’s well handicapped on his best back form. Despite slight doubts about stamina he’s the pick with William Buick in the plate for the first time.

1pt win – Kryptos – 9/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not as good on Sunday but at least King’s Vow got into the money in the Irish Cesarewitch. As I feared Shoshone Warrior didn’t like the soft ground. What was disappointing about the race? Well the winner Country Gentlemen was the final horse left off my short list. So frustrating but that’s racing and sums up this summer of racing.

In the Munster National and Moyhenna ran a brave race to finish fourth. You have wonder if her day was missed at the Kerry National. Roaring Bull’s jumping was very rusty on his seasonal reappearance. He soon got behind and was pulled up before four out. Not one to give up on just yet though.

It looks a quiet week on the tipping front until Saturday although I think there will be the odd bet each day between now and then.  Indeed, I have one running at Musselburgh this afternoon.

Musselburgh

2:30 – Twelve are set to go to post for this 7f Class 2 handicap. Which is far and away the best race of the day. It looks a competitive one too with bookies going 5/1 the field.

Gale Force Maya is too consistent for her own good with her last six form figures being 223223. Ran well again over 6f at Newmarket 18-days ago. Return to 7f in her favour but she does need the cheekpieces to eke out a bit more improvement.

Idoapologise put in a career best effort when winning at Beverley 20-days ago. It’s a two notches step up in class for the 3-year-old but he’s capable of more progress.

National League looked unlucky In the run when 3rd of 13 at Doncaster two starts back but disappointed at Ayr last month. He gets the first-time visor today and wouldn’t be without claims on his Doncaster run.

My each-way pick is previous C&D winner Northernpowerhouse. The 4-year-old has won two of his five starts since racing resumed in June, both over today’s distance. Was doing his best work at the finish when 4th of 24 in last month’s Ayr Silver Cup.

1pt each way – Northernpowerhouse – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 3 places ¼ odds). 

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good day on Saturday. Mind you it’s about time. Let’s hope we can continue it today. There’s something for both flat and jumps fans today. It’s the Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh and JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National at Limerick.

Curragh

3:40 – Paddy Power Irish Cesarewitch – 2m

Willie Mullins could be set for another notable Cesarewitch double after Great White Shark’s win at Newmarket yesterday. He saddles last year’s winner Royal Illusion & Kaatskill Nap. Both have big chances but slight preference on soft ground for the former despite being 11lb higher than for last years easy win.

Emmett Mullins also saddles a couple of live contenders in Cape Gentlemen & Sneaky Getaway. Of the pair I like Cape Gentleman who made a very pleasing stable debut when finishing runner-up to Mount Leinster at Listowel 16-days ago.  A winner when trained in France (good to soft) he’s lightly raced and makes his handicap debut off what could be a good mark.

Run For Mary is favourite after running Princess Zoe to 1 ¼ lengths at Galway last time. Ground should be fine for the 6-year-old and promising apprentice Sam Ewing takes off a valuable 7lb. Plenty to like about her chance apart from the price.

King’s Vow handles testing ground and stays well. The 4-year-old looked to have put in an improved effort on turf when 4^th of 13 at Killarney 53-days ago. Strong at the finish that day and the return to 2m will suit, twice a winner over the distance on the all-weather.

Shoshone Warrior was a winner of Leopardstown maiden back in July but put in career best effort when 2^nd of 18 in the valuable ‘Petingo’ Handicap 29-days ago. Strong at the finish over 1m 5f that day and could improve further for the step up in trip. One poor run this season did come on soft ground at Navan which is a slight worry on today’s going. Still he represents powerful connections and in Aidan O’Brien & Colin Keane.

Verdict: A very tricky race. Royal Illusion must have a great chance of back to back wins in the race but her price has now gone. Likewise, the claims of Run To Mary are clear for all to see. Cape Gentlemen has scope for more improvement now going handicapping. King’s Vow has each way claims returning to 2m. Shoshone Warrior is an improving 3-year-old but is drifting like a dog on raft probably due to fears over the soft ground. 

1pt each way – King’s Vow – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Shoshone Warrior – 11/1 @ William Hill

Limerick

4:00 – JT McNamara Ladbrokes Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade A) – 3m

A tricky renewal. You have runners, like Roaring Bull making their seasonal return and there’s others like Portmore Lough who come into the race in poor form.

Apart from one horse ante post favourite Walk Away. You can hardly say there are many horses ahead of their present marks.

Walk Away has yet to win any of his three starts over fences but came up against some decent novice last season, including finishing 2^nd of 17 to Faugheen on his chasing debut. First run since January but seems to go well fresh. Handicap debut off 136 could be lenient for the 7-year-old.

Doctor Duffy had had a good summer and continued his good form when third in the Kerry National. Davy Russell takes over in the saddle but he surely would prefer better ground than he’s likely to get here.

Moyhenna a previous course winner, just failed to overhaul Cabaret Queen in the Kerry National, beaten a nose. Up 4lb, for that effort makes life tougher, but not insurmountable. It was a career best from the 8-year-old who bounced back from a poor 2019-20 season. Can she build on that performance here Three of the last 22 winners of the race had their last start in the Kerry National.

Gordon Elliott saddled the winner of this in 2016 with Tiger Roll. He has two runners today in Aforementioned & Roaring Bull. The former found plenty for pressure when winning a 3m Beginners Chase at Clonmel last time. Handicap chase debut, has no weight to carry and should go well. However, his winning form has come on a sounder surface that he faces here.

Roaring Bull got up in the final strides to win the valuable Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, off 6lb lower. Makes his seasonal return here. Now he may need the run but it’s worth noting he’s 3 wins from 4 runs when returning from a 121+day break. He’s a 7-year-old like his stablemate so remains a young horse and I think he can go well here.

The trainer of Internal Transfer likes to target the race and this fellow was the beaten favourite in this 12 months ago. He comes into this race having fallen in the Kerry National. Not an ideal prep for this but if he wins It wouldn’t be a total surprise.

Chavi Artist was runner-up to Doctor Duffy in the Mayo National on his last run. He’s entitled to finish a lot closer to that one today and he’s got winning form on soft ground. Not the most fluent of jumpers which will be tested here but the 7-year-old should be capable of winning a handicap off his present mark.

Verdict: Walk Away could be well in on his handicap debut. Roaring Bulll capable of bold run on his seasonal return. If Moyhenna can back up her recent Kerry National effort then she won’t be far away.

1pt each way – Roaring Bull – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Moyhenna – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John