Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Hopefully you went with the five places on offer with Ladbrokes & Coral about Sky Pirate in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase. And some of you may have got paid out on Tobefair who finished 4^th in the 3m Handicap Hurdle that followed.

ITV are covering four races from the final day of the November Meeting and as a bonus they are showing the Southern National from Fontwell and the Grade 1 Morgana Hurdle at Punchestown.

Cheltenham has a nicely balanced six race card with the highlight being the Grade 2 Shloer Chase (2:25) where Put The Kettle aims to prove her Arkle Chase success in March was no fluke. She takes on last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil. Impressive last time C&D winner Rouge Vif and Riders On the Storm who drops back to the minimum trip for his seasonal return.

The big betting race of the Cheltenham card is a competitive looking Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (3:00) which has attracted a big field of 17 runners.

All today’s selections are from Cheltenham.

Cheltenham November Meeting – Day 3

1:15 – mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m ½ f

The Big Breakaway, trained by Colin Tizzard, won his first two starts over hurdles last season before finishing 4^th to Envoi Allen in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Connections think he could win a Gold Cup one day and he’s odds on to make a winning debut over fences here.

Soldier Of Love was well placed to win four races over fences on good ground over the summer before finishing runner-up to Galvin here at the last meeting. Different ground today and looks set for the minor money.

The Mighty Don finally put it all together to win over fences at the 7^th attempt at Chepstow on his seasonal return last month. The second has gone onto win since so the form looks reliable. He could take advantage if the favourite underperforms.

Doc Pentro will enjoy the soft ground looking at his hurdle form. His trainer Emma Lavelle won this race in 2013 and it’s interesting she gives the 8-year-old his chase debut in a race as good as this.

Verdict: The Big Breakaway is the most likely winner but I think the Mighty Don can out run his odds.

1pt win – The Mighty Don – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:45 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 3 ½ f

Irish raider Discorama has placed three times at Cheltenham Festival. Just got touched off by Milan Native in a three-runner race at Galway on his return to action last month. Back up in trip today and yard had one that went close here yesterday. Looks to have a favourites chance.

West Approach won this last year off 6lb lower. Made an encouraging seasonal reappearance when runner-up to Froden here last month. As his win strike rate of 13% suggests he’s not the easiest to catch right but can be expected to go close again if in the mood. Robbie Power opts for Discorama today.

Captain Drake runner-up in last season’s Midland National has just had the five starts over fences, winning once at Exeter. A winner back over hurdles last month. He should be spot fitness wise for this and can win races off his present mark this winter. Having his first run at Cheltenham today.

Big River has plenty of big field handicap chase form at the Festival. Not the most reliable as he showed when pulling up in this race 12 months ago. Handicapped to go well and like heavy ground and plenty of winning form in small fields.

Yala Enki stays well, goes very well in the mud, and has dropped back down to a workable mark.

Ramses De Teillee is another who goes well in the mud and can win a handicap chase off his current mark but was only 4^th in last year’s renewal.

Cloth Cap can win a handicap chase off his present mark but the ground has probably gone against him today.

Verdict: West Approach isn’t the most reliable but has to be respected in his bid for back to back wins in the races. Discorama goes well here and will be spot on fitness wise. Captain Drake can win races off his present mark and Bryan Carver takes off a handy 5lb. Big River likes a small field and provided he doesn’t get to far behind is handicapped to go close.

1pt win – Big River – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – West Approach – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) – 2m

Just the five now with Forest Bihan a none runner. Last year’s winner Defi Du Seuil bids for back to back wins in the race. Ran no sort of race when odds on favourite in the Champion Chase here in March but better expected today. He remains the one to beat.

Put The Kettle On bids to show her win last years Arkle was no fluke. The time of her Arkle success suggests it wasn’t. Gets 10lb from Defi Du Seuil today and with normal improvement can take this.

Rouge Vif was impressive when winning a handicap under a big weight over C&D last month. That performance gives him a big chance here but has the ground gone against this improving 6-year-old.

Riders Onthe Storm was a big improver over 2m 4f/2m 5f last season. He won first time up last years and goes well in the mud. Interesting dropped back to 2m but this will be tough against proven rivals at the distance.

Verdict: Despite his poor run in the Champion Chase Defi Du Seuil is the one to beat. Put The Kettle gets the allowances from the favourite and with normal improvement on her second season chasing won’t be far away.

3:00 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Two non-runners mean 16 are set to go to post for what is usually a competitive handicap hurdle.

Alan King has saddled the winner twice in the last three seasons. He saddles second season hurdler Edwardstone. A winner of his first two starts over hurdles last season. The 6-year-old was well beaten in the Supreme Novices when last seen in action, better can be expected this season although I am not totally sure Cheltenham is his track. King also saddles last year’s winner Harambe. He’s 6lb higher this time around and doesn’t have the benefit of a run this time.

Sir Psycho showed a distinct liking for soft/heavy going when winning at Exeter & Haydock early in the year and wasn’t disgraced when 5th of 13 in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. Ran well for a long way on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow last month, on ground that would have been plenty quick enough. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race twice since 2011 and both his winners were 4-year-old’s who had previously run that season. Stablemate Thyme White was impressive on his seasonal return at Chepstow. He’s up 11lb for that success and must prove he’s as good on soft ground.

Tegerek has returned to action in good form and last time out was a decisive winner of a 17-runner handicap over C&D last month. Runner-up One True King ran a brave race under a big weight here yesterday so the form looks reliable enough.  That win came on good ground but he did win on soft last at Huntingdon in March.  Up 8lb in a better race but he’s going the right way and can go close.

Proschema is very much unexposed over hurdles. A useful staying handicapper on the flat, the 5-year-old is 1-4 over hurdles and returned from a 322-day absence to finish 2^nd of 11 at Wetherby last month. He’s only been raised 3lb for that effort and looks capable of plenty more progress on just his second start in a handicap hurdle. Trainer Dan Skelton saddled the winner in 2016.

Ballyandy holds no secrets from the handicapper but the recent rain brings him very much into contention here.  The 9-year-old goes well at the track, beaten just a neck in the Grade 2 International Hurdle last December and got up in the final strides to win a Grade 2 at Haydock in January (heavy), Vulnerable under top-weight to any better handicapped rivals but his recent 2^nd in the Welsh Champion Hurdle shows he’s as good as ever.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Top-weight Ballyandy looks sure to give his backers a good run for their money. The form of Tegerek’s recent C&D win was franked yesterday and he can go close. The softer the ground the better for Sir Psycho. The unexposed Proschema lurks on what looks a competitive mark for an inform yard.

1pt win – Proschema – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Tegerek – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s expected to be wet at Cheltenham tomorrow and it won’t take much for the going to go soft. Maybe the best place to be watching Paddy Power and the other five races of the November Meeting is at home in the dry and in front of the TV.

This years Paddy Power looks a cracker but there’s a good supporting card of races.

Cheltenham – November Meeting – Day 2

1:05 – South West Syndicate Handicap Chase (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 3) – 3m 1f

Kilfilum Cross has finished twice runner-up here in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He goes well on rain softened ground. The 9-year-old returned from a 218-day break to finish 4^th at Fakenham last month and should be sharper today.

1pt win – Kilfilum Cross – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Saint Sonnet and Mister Fisher have been well backed ante post for the race. Both are unexposed over fences, in particular the former who won’t have any problem if the going eases. Mister Fisher is capable of better this season but he may be better on good/good to soft than soft.

It’s not going to be easy to win this under 11-11 but Simply The Betts has to rate a strongest contender of those at the front end of the betting.The 7-year-old has Festival handicap chase winning form and is 3 wins from 3 runs on his seasonal reappearance. The forecast rain is arguably a positive with his form figures over fences being 11211 on heavy or soft.

There are plenty of others in the field with course form. None more so than last year’s winner Happy Diva. The mare had a nice spin at Wetherby two weeks ago and should go well again but may find others are better handicapped.

Slate House was travelling like the most likely winner in the race 12 months ago but fell two out. This year’s race looks to have more depth but he should go well and looks on a good mark.

Siruh Du Lac is interesting on his first start for the inform David Pipe yard. Twice a winner here for his previous trainer Nick Williams. He pulled up in this 12 months ago and fell when still in contention two out at the Festival. Definite contender if the stable switch had had the desired effect.

Sky Pirate is a maiden over fences after nine starts but he’s finished runner-up on his last three starts. Ran as well as ever on his return to action at Wetherby last month on his first start since a wind-op. Has a nice light weight (10-2) and the ability to land a decent handicap chase this season. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill knows what’s required to win this race as he’s saddled the winner twice since 2013.

Brelan D’As has run some good races here in defeat. He finished third in the Grand Annual last years and was runner-up last year, beaten a neck, this would be his first start since stumbling badly three in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here last December. Could get into the places again with a decent round of jumping.

Verdict: It looks one of the strongest renewals of the Paddy Power. Saint Sonnet is in the ‘could be anything category’. Simply The Betts is solid choice and of those at bigger odds I wouldn’t rule out a big run from Sky Pirate.

1pt win – Simply The Betts – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Sky Pirate – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:50 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) – 3m

Golan Fortune and Tobefair were first and third in this race 12 months ago and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again.

Tobefair disappointed when down the field at the last meeting probably the ground was bit to too quick that day and he should be fitter today. The 10-year-old can never be dismissed at Cheltenham. 

Golan Fortune ran well when 4^th of 12 behind Unowwhatimeanharry at Aintree last Saturday. Quick turnaround for the 8-year-old but he’s 1-1 when racing within 7-days of his last run. No problem with soft ground for the 8-year-old and the first time visor replace the cheekpieces today.

Tea Clipper has improved with each of his five starts over hurdles. Showed plenty of stamina to win a valuable 2m 3f handicap hurdle at Chepstow 35-days ago. Up 7lb but the 5-year-old looks like he can improve further for the step up to 3m. Yet to race going worse than good to soft so soft ground would be an unknown for the ante post favourite.

Irish raider Mrs Milner won a 2m mares handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival and showed she stayed 2m 6f well when 3^rd of 14 at Ballinrobe in September. Scope for more improvement for the step up to 3m. Has form on yielding to soft in Ireland but whether she wants it very deep is a questionable.

Debestyman looked to have the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at his mercy when unseating his rider at the last in January. Once again showed he enjoys these big field handicaps when 2^nd of 19 here at the last meeting. Stays 2m 5f well but 3m on soft ground will test his stamina to the limit.

Verdict: Tea Clipper is the form horse but is vulnerable on soft ground and may not run. The Debestyman can win a handicap like this over the winter but his stamina for 3m will be tested today. That leaves last year’s first and third Tobefair & Golan Fortune.

1pt win – Golan Fortune – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportbook

1pt each way – Tobefair – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Punchestown

12:50 – Alanna Homes Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 3 ½

Willie Mullins saddles seven of the 18 runners in this valuable handicap chase.He also has the front two in the betting inTornado Flyer & Salsaretta.

Tornado Flyer won his first two starts over fences (soft/soft to heavy) and ended last season finishing 3^rd to Faugheen in the Grade 1 Flogas Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown and fifth to Samcro in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Only had five starts over fences so can progress further and he looks on a fair mark for his handicap debut. First run since Cheltenham but he’s 3-3 when returning from a 121+ day break so a lack of fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

Salsaretta is 4-4 since going chasing last season with two of those wins coming here, including C&D. The mare is 4-6 on soft/heavy ground so the more rain the better for her. First run for 244-days but she’s 2-3 when returning from a 121+ day absence. All her chase wins have come in small field so the ‘hustle and bustle’ of a big field will be a new experience   Could be on a good mark for handicap debut but Paul Townend has opted for Tornado Flyer.

Tintangle looked like she would Salsaretta a race when unseating her rider two in a Grade 2 at Limerick in March. She was getting 3lb from the Mullins mare that day but was still going well before her mishap. Ran poorly on her return at Clonmel 16-days ago and not for the first time didn’t look the most enthusiastic. However, she gets 20lb from Salsaretta today which brings her in the mix if on a going day.

Castle Oliver improved to win three handicap chases at the start of the year before looking to fail for stamina in the 3m Leinster National in February. Drops back in trip for his seasonal return and looks to be starting the season on a good mark. No great record off a lay off though.

Zero Ten ended last season winning a Grade 3 Novices Chase at Thurles in March. Had a spin on the flat 13-days ago which should have blown away the cobwebs. First run beyond 2m 2f over fences but won a hurdle here over today’s distance last year. Just the four starts over fences and the 7-year-old is another who could progress further as a second season chaser.

Verdict: Hard to separate the Mullins pair of Tornado Flyer and Salsaretta but I’m taking the former to make a winning seasonal return.

1pt win – Tornado Flyer – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The old timers used to say the winter jumps season only starts with the Cheltenham’s November Meeting and the Paddy Power Handicap Chase. That’s less of a case these days, as you can argue that Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby sees the start of the jumps season proper.  That all said, the November Meeting is arguably the most important fixture between now and Christmas.

Not only high-class racing but it normally offers clues to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Since 2011 some 42 horses ran at the meeting that went onto win at the following years Festival.

All the weekend’s action starts here and ITV 4 will be broadcasting the four of the six races from Day 1.

Cheltenham November Meeting – Day 1

1:15 – Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 5f

ITV are not covering this 18-runner handicap hurdle for the conditional jockeys but it’s an intriguing race nonetheless.

There are a couple of interesting race stats.

Just five trainers have won this race in the past 12-years and three of them have runners in this year:

Induno – David Pipe – 4 winners from 11 runners 36% +46.33 5 placed 45%.

Steal A March – Nicky Henderson – 3 winners from 12 runners 25% +6.25 6 placed 50%.

Tango Boy & Heavey – Neil Mulholland – 1 winner from 5 runners 20% +3 3 placed 60%.

Even more interesting is the stat for the clear favorite in the race. For what is normally a big field handicap that attracts an average of 20 runners, clear favorites have produced – 6 winners from 11 runners 55% +12.33 8 placed 73%. Indeed, if you backed all the clear favourites each way you would have made +16.04.

1:50 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m

The first of the ITV races and for me the race of the day.

Magic Saint heads the ante post betting. The 6-year-old will be suited by a return to 2m after seemingly not staying 2m 4f at Aintree last month. He’s suited by good, good to soft ground but his Cheltenham record is 0-3 and he maybe better on a flatter track. Yard couldn’t be in better form but I want to take him on.

On The Slopes was an improving handicap chaser up to 2m4f season. Winning twice in good style at Kempton in Feb/March. He raced like the run was needed when 5th of 13 behind Rouge Vif here at the last meeting. Will be a lot sharper for his seasonal return and trainer Chris Gordon’s horses are running much better than they were three weeks ago. The 6-year-old is 6lb higher than for his last success but he’s capable of landing a decent pot in the coming weeks.

Beat The Judge finished two places but just 1 ¼ lengths ahead of On The Slopes last time. He’s only had the four starts over fences, winning two of them so could be capable of better but he did have race fitness on his side last time and I think On The Slopes can finish in front of him this time.

Fanion D’Estruval made an impressive stable debut when winning at Newbury (soft) last November. He was then sent of 6/4 for a Grade 2 at Kempton at Christmas but struggled to go the early pace and finished 5^th of 6.  Not seen out since suggests something was amiss that day with the 5-year-old. Best form has come on softer ground than he’s likely to get here but he goes well fresh and is another with scope for more improvement this season.

1pt win – Fanion D’Estruval – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:25 – SSS Super Alloys Supports Racing Welfare Novices’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f

Just the four go to post for the race but they include Impressive last time out winners Protektorat and Southfield Stone (C&D). Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled last years winner and he runs Mossy Fern who should be sharper for his chase debut here over extended 3m at the last meeting.  The drop back to 2m 4f looks a positive. He’s no forlorn hope here as there’s not much between all three horses on their hurdle ratings but his jumping needs to have improved.

3:00 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 6f

It’s not often that the Cross-Country race is the race of the day. However, you can see why with easy Festival Cross Country winner Easyland, two-time Grand National winner Tiger Roll and a last season’s Welsh Grand National Winner Potters Cross whose having his first start over the course. All three of them have the Grand National in their sights and whoever emerges victorious here will be ante post favourite for the big one in April. These types of races are not my cup of tea from a betting perspective but this does a fascinating race to watch.

3:35 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

Just the seven go to post and it looks between the Kim Bailey trained Does He Know who has won his last two starts including over C&D three weeks ago. Really took to the course last time and has proved himself on good or quicker ground. Grand Mogul looks the biggest danger to the favourite. The 6-year-old won a Thurles bumper for Gordon Elliott before switching to Nicky Henderson last autumn. Showed he had ability on his two starts last season but too his form to a stronger level when running out a comfortable winner of Chepstow maiden hurdle (soft) 17-days ago. Must prove he’s as good on quicker ground but jockey Nice De Boinville said after his win that he would prefer better ground. Has 11lb to find with the favourite on official ratings but he looks a useful prospect.

4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f

A seventeen-runner novice handicap hurdle looks a tough getting out stakes race.

One True King finished runner-up over C&D three weeks ago and has each way claims again off 2lb higher.

Given the form of the David Pipe yard handicap debutant Panic Attack must be respected after her win at Uttoxeter 14-days ago. Looks the type to win more races over hurdles.

Fergal O’Brien saddled last year’s winner and has runners in this year’s race: Handicap debutant Art Approval and The Bees Knees whose won his last two and looked much improved when easily winning on his handicap hurdle debut at Musselburgh 9-days ago.  Has a 7lb penalty to carry for that success but could defy it, if handling the track.

Takeit Easy won a handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last month. The handicapper has raised him 8lb for that success but he’s another going the right way and has each way claims for trainer who rarely sends one to Cheltenham.

1pt win – One True King – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Takeit Easy – 14/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The possibility of heavy overnight rain means Clonmel must pass a morning inspection. Let’s hope the racing takes place given it’s due to be covered by ITV. No problems at Taunton where the going is described as good. 

Clonmel

The big race at Clonmel is the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase (3:00) which looks a match between the Willie Mullins pair of Cilaos Emery & Bachasson. It could be a good day for the trainer, as Cabaret Queen is fancied for the Listed Mares Chase (2:25).  From a betting perspective I can leave both races alone and look at the handicap chase (3:35).

3:35 – Getaday shaped with promise when 2nd of 11 in a Wexford beginners chase. That was only the 7-year-old’s second start over fences and he looks capable of winning a handicap chase off a mark 109. Best form over hurdles came on heavy ground so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any fears for him either.

1pt win – Getaday – 15/2 @ Bet365

Taunton

ITV are broadcasting two races from the Somerset track this afternoon. The 2:05 doesn’t hold much appeal with a long odds favourite in the shape of Tomorrow Mystery who looks well ahead of her mark.

2:40 – The 2m 7f handicap chase looks more competitive. Another Stowaway is on a good mark, if in the mood, but he’s a difficult one to catch right.  I see Tom Segal has gone for him in his Racing Post Pricewise column.

Irish Prophecy ran Badger Beers Trophy Winner El Presente to a length at Exeter last month. Up 7lb, but that form is arguably the best in the field. He’s well suited to a sound surface and this sharper track should suit.

Pontresina was first past the post on his chase debut at Fontwell, lost the race in the stewards’ room, but made amends when winning at Kempton 25-days ago. The 7-year-old is already better chaser than a hurdler and has only been put up 4lb for his Kempton success. Needs to improve again but that seems likely for a yard 6-20 +24.91 in the past 14-days.

1pt win – Pontresina – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Some good racing this afternoon as Bangor holds its most valuable meeting of the year. Meanwhile at Exeter we have an interesting clash between Sporting John & Fiddlerontheroof in the beginners’ chase (3:10). However, I am off to the Welsh track for today’s selections in a competitive looking handicap chase (1:55).

Bangor

1:55 – Anne Duchess Of Westminster Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Boldmere heads the betting and should be fitter for his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow last month. A winner of two of his four starts over fences last season. He had the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby at his mercy when falling at the last back in February. 

The Two Amigos has done all his winning at 3m 2f+. Put in a career best on RPR’s when runner-up at Taunton in March. The soft ground will bring his stamina into play and although this is his seasonal reappearance, he did win first time up in 2018. He deserves to win a race like this.

Venetia Williams is 4-7 +48.5 with her runners in the race since 2010 and she relies on Yalltari for a fifth win in the race. The 9-year-old looked an improving chaser two seasons ago. Last season was a bit of a write off as he ran poorly on both starts. First run for 256-days but he’s won off a layoff in the past. If he was to bounce back to his best, he looks on a good mark.

Django Django has a bit of an in and out profile but when he’s on song he’s good, as he showed when winning a handicap chase at Newbury in January.  The 7-year-old was well beaten on his seasonal return at Ascot 11-days ago but is on a handy mark, if bouncing back.

Verdict: The obvious pick looks to be the potential improver and favourite Boldmere. I’m loathe to leave a Venetia Williams runner out of this race. Django Django has each way claims if on a going day and I can see The Two Amigo’s going well on his seasonal return if fully tuned up.

1pt each way – Django Django – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – The Two Amigos –  7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There are a couple of decent handicaps today at Huntingdon and Hereford this afternoon.

Huntingdon

1:45 – Michaelmas Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m

Rowland Ward has only had three starts over hurdles. A faller, two out when still in contention, on his hurdling debut at Warwick. He put that mishap behind him to win a juvenile hurdle at Kempton (soft) over Christmas.  Stepped up to Grade 2 company. albeit a weak one, at Cheltenham a month later. Got badly hampered when making his effort on the inside after two out and that was race over. Won on good ground when trained on the flat by Ralph Beckett so underfoot conditions should be fine. First run since January but worth another chance now going handicapping for the first time. Yard among the winners and have a good record at the track.

1pt win Rowland Ward – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Hereford

2:07 – Just the seven go to post for this 2m 5f handicap chase (Class3). Town Parks has won over C&D in the past and the 9-year-old made a pleasing return to action when 2nd of 11 at Stratford 12-days ago. Looks competitive off a mark of 127 but maybe he will need softer going to exploit it.

Highest Sun is another who may prefer a bit softer ground than he gets here. The 6-year-old has scope for more improvement over fences and I think a mark of 136 will be workable this season. Colin Tizzard’s runners have been needing their first run of the season but I could see this one going close here.

1pt win – Highest Sun – 9/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Out of luck in the Troytown yesterday. Today, I have a fancy for one at Chepstow that runs in the same race that he won last year.

Chepstow

2:05 – Big Meadow won this handicap chase 12 months ago. That win came on his seasonal reappearance like it does today. All the 9-year-old’s best form has come on soft or heavy ground so the more ease in the going the better. Given his profile he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field but he’s dropped to a good handicap mark, 2lb lower than this time last year. Each way claims today with the possibility of better.

1pt each way – Big Meadow – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds) – If you have a Sky Bet account, they’re paying a generous 4 places.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Unowhatimeanharry & Modus did the business at Aintree to provide an excellent Saturday profit. Still struggling to nail the big the races but the Troytown Handicap, at Navan, this afternoon provides another opportunity in that regard.

Navan

1:35 – Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m

Very useful handicap hurdler The Jam Man heads the market. The 7-year-old who improved over hurdlers last season and can race off a 14lb lower mark over fences. Has been running well on the flat of late and If he can reproduce his best hurdle form back over fences, he’s going to be hard to beat here.

Plan Of Attack had some good form in handicap chases last season, including finishing third in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown last Christmas and 4^th of 23 in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. Pulled up on his seasonal return in the Kerry National. He was struck into there so if you forgive that run, he’s player.

Discordantly was a shade inconsistent over fences last season but did win a beginners Chase at Gowran Park in March.  The 6-year-old put it altogether when winning at Galway (soft) on his seasonal reappearance 14-days ago. He’s up 10lb for that success which isn’t to excessive as there should be more improvement to come for the step up to 3m. He won’t be far away if he jumps as well as he did last time.

Gordon Elliott won the race four times between 2014-2017. He saddles 10 of the 22 runners in this year’s race. The two I like most are Aforementioned comes into the race on a roll after win at Clonmel and in the Munster National (soft). Up 9lb but there could be more to come form the 7-year-old.

The other Elliott runner I like is top-weight Death Duty. A Grade 1 winner as novice in December 2017. He was off the track for 758-days before returning to action in January. Four runs last season weren’t devoid of promise and its’ worth noting he was backed into 8/1 for a big handicap chase at the Cheltenham in March. He’s 3-3 at Navan and he goes well on soft and heavy. First run for 229-days but is 3-3 when racing 121 to 365-days since his last start. He looks on a good mark on the best of his back form, especially with a handy 5lb claimed off his back.

Portmore Lough was a solid third in this race 12 months ago and returned to something like hie best when runner-up to Aforementioned in the Munster National. He gets a 6lb pull with that one today and looks set for another good run.

Fitzhenry was runner-up 12 months ago and then went on to occupy the same position in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown.  Had a nice spin over hurdles at Tipperary last month which should have him spot on for today and looks set for another big run here.

Verdict: The Jam Man could be very well handicapped. However,ff Gordon Elliott has Death Duty back to anything like he’s best he would take some stopping here. There should be more to come from Discordantly for the step up to 3m. The likes of Portmore Lough and Fitzhenry have place claims once more and Plan Of Attack can go well if bouncing from a poor run in the Kerry National.

1pt win – Death Duty – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Discordantly -11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Sandown

There’s a decent seven race card at Sandown this afternoon with the veterans’ chase at 3:30 the highlight. The going at Sandown is soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles track but good, good to soft in places on the chase course

3:30 – The ten runners in this 3m veteran’s chase have won 54 races between them and it looks a competitive race.

Step Back won the Bet365 Gold Cup here over 3m 5f in April 2018. Struggled after but finished third in the same race the following season. Just the two starts since and got back on track when making all to beat two rivals at Wincanton 14-days ago. Up 3lb, the 10-year-old is at his best going right-handed and if Jack Tudor can get him into a good jumping rhythm once again, he could be hard to peg back even over a trip that could be a bit short of his best. He’s 3-8 +5.12 5 places over fences on good or good to soft.

Crosspark advertised his well being when runner-up in veterans chase at Chepstow last month. Two seasons back he won the Eider Chase and finished runner-up in the Scottish Grand National. Goes very well on a sound surface and should go well over a trip that’s probably a bit on the short side for the 10-year-old.

Top-weight Gold Present is having his first start since a summer wind-op. Three miles looks his optimum trip and he goes well on a sound surface. First start for 337-days but has won twice off a layoff in the past. Nicely treated on his best form and today’s going should show him at his best if the wind -op has worked.

Verdict: I’m hoping the wind-op has the desired effect on Gold Present who could have a bit too much speed for Step Back and Crosspark over 3m.

1pt win – Gold Present – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

There’s a busy week end to the week with three days from Cheltenham, starting on Friday all being covered by ITV and as bonus they’re also broadcasting six races from Clonmel & Taunton on Thursday.

Watch your inboxes for any selections before Thursday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s a very busy today. We have Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase at Wincanton and it’s the final day of the flat season with the November Handicap at Doncaster. There’s also the Irish version at Naas on the final day of the Irish turf season.  Over the Atlantic the Breeders Cup continues at Keeneland.

The big race action switches across the Irish Sea on Sunday with Navan hosting the historic Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase an there’s also a decent card at Sandown.

Doncaster

12:55 – Kynren’s career best effort came when winning a 7f Heritage Handicap at Ascot (soft) last October, off 1lb lower. More miss than hit this season but wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup three starts back. Two lesser efforts since but can go close on a going day.

Tomfre bids for the hat trick after wins at Leicester andwon with more in hand than the final margin of victory suggests when beating 14 rivals over C&D 14-days ago. A 4lb rise in the weight’s isn’t excessive and both wins have come on heavy.

Molls Memory is another well suited to the mud. She comes into the race fresher than most having just had three starts this season and last time out showed a good attitude to win at Newbury. Just 3lb higher and is a big player.

2:05 – Anna Nerium & Trefoil were second and fourth in a Group 3 at Newmarket last month. The latter was having her first start for 87-days and is entitled to have improved for the run. Won on soft as 2-year-old and her trainer Ralph Beckett saddled the winner of this in 2010 & 2012.

1pt win – Trefoil – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Betfair November Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Euchen Glen has been in tremendous form of late and comes into the race having won two small field Group 3’s in the mud at York & Newbury.  The top-weight will be vulnerable to any better handicapped horses in the field but should give his running if in the same form as last time.

Sam Cooke could be one such well handicapped horse. The Ralph Beckett trained 4-year-old has only had six career starts and is open to more progress over 1m 4f. He’s ground versatile won on soft and good going. First run since finishing 2nd of 9 at Ascot 104-days ago, beaten just a nose by Jeremiah and is just 3lb higher here. Absence isn’t a negative as he’s won off an even longer layoff. 

David O’Meara saddled Open Eagle to win the race in 2014. He saddles Eagle Court who’s improved for the step up to 1m 2f and soft ground winning his last two starts at Redcar and Nottingham. Up 5lb but the 3-year-old is going the right way and a mark of 90 looks workable.

Kingbrook won the Old Rowley Cup on his last start. Up 6lb for that success but he’s another improving 3-year-old who could rate higher and goes well on soft ground.

Tulip Fields showed she was effective on soft ground when a C&D handicap two starts back. Ran well to finish 5^th in a Listed race at Lingfield just 5-days later. Interesting that Harry Bentley who has ridden Sam Cooke on his last three starts opts for the filly here.

Verdict: I have fancied Sam Cooke for this all week so I can desert him now.  Eagle Court an improving 3-year-old who like soft ground and could get the race run to suit. Tulip Fields is another progressive 3-year-old who races off a nice weight and can go well.

1pt win – Sam Cooke – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Tulip Fields – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds) – 14/1 @ Sky Bet paying 7 places.

Wincanton

1:50 – The forecast good ground means that Sunrise Ruby looks the right favourite. The Nicky Henderson trained mare bids for the hat trick after wins at Newton Abbot and Kempton.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of this twice since 2011. He has two entered up. The one that I like is top-weight Eglantine Du Seuil. The 6-year-old is having her first start since switching from Willie Mullins. Winner of the Mares Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019, which she won after 180-day layoff. She goes well fresh so a 241-day absence shouldn’t be too much of an issue. And Bryan Carver takes off a handy 5lb off the 6-year-old’s back.

1pt win – Eglantine Du Seuil – 6/1 @ Bet365

3:25 – Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m 1f

Paul Nicholls has won five of the last ten renewals of the race, including the last three.  He has three entered at the five-day stage: Danny Whizzbang, Present Man & My Way.

Danny Whizzbang has just had the three starts and won first time up last season. The 7-year-old looks progressive and the type his trainer would target at the race. Handicap debut and a mark of 145 could well underestimate him.

Present Man won this in 2017 & 2018 but disappointed in the race 12 months ago, although given that was his only start last season, something was probably amiss which explains his poor run. Now a 10-year-old he showed his well being when winning a veteran’s chase at Chepstow last month. He’s been nudged up 2lb for that success but if Bryony Frost can get him into a good jumping rhythm. You couldn’t rule out a third win in the race.

Just A Sting, trained by Harry Fry, was 4th in the race 12 months ago.  He was very much in contention coming to three out but he was awkward at that fence and would probably have finished closer but for that error.  It seems you need to catch him either first or second time out. As he’s 5-8 +17 6 places compared with 0-7 on his 3+ start of the season. Has won on good but his chance would be enhanced on good to soft.

Cobra De Mai is nicely handicapped on the best of his form and gets the first-time blinkers after a disappointing effort at Cheltenham two weeks ago. Goes very well on a sound surface and if the headgear has the desired effect won’t be far away.

Verdict: Danny Whizzbang could be well ahead of his mark but I’m going with Present Man and Just A Sting.

1pt win – Present Man – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Just A Sting – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Aintree

1:35 – Golan Fortune ticks the boxes marked going and distance and is just 2lb above last season’s winning mark. Not disgraced when 9^th of 19 at Cheltenham on his seasonal return 15-days ago. The cheekpieces left off last time return today and he’s 4-5 in November/December.

Unowhatimeanharry is a 12-year-old and probably isn’t the Grade 1 winning hurdler that he used to be. That said, he’s got a great record on his seasonal reappearance with form figures 1331113. Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 7lb off the top weights back and gives the veteran place claims.

1pt win – Golan Fortune – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Unowhatimeanharry – 16/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4  places 1/5 odds)

2:10 – Modus has been off for 465 days but he’s gone well fresh in the past with form figures 123116 when returning from a 121+day absence. No issues with the going and distance for the 10-year-old. Jumping has let him down in the past at crucial stages of a race but if he can cut out a race ending errors, he can go close 5lb below his last winning mark.

1pt win – Modus – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Naas

2:00 – Naas November Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 6f

Takarengo last win came at Leopardstown back in 2019, off 9lb lower and showed stamina was the name of the game when 3^rd of 34 in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last time. Drops back in trip today but a bold bid expected.

Jukebox Jive won this race 12 months ago, off 7lb lower. Just the one start this season when in midfield in the Irish Cesarewitch last month. Needs the first cheekpieces to eke out a bit more improvement off this sort of mark but Gavin Ryan takes off a handy 3lb

Haparanda has really improved for the step up to 1m 3f/1m 4f. There was plenty to like about her win at Leopardstown three weeks ago. Up 10lb higher, open to more improvement for the step up to 1m 6f and Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off 5lb.

1pt win – Takarengo – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The racing this side of the Atlantic is moderate to say the least. So, I am off over to Keeneland and the Breeder Cup. Where it’s the juveniles who take centre stage today.

Breeders Cup – Keeneland

8:10 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – 1m

Battleground won the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and then got the job done in workmanlike style in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. The form of the race isn’t strong but he’s open to more progress for the step up to a mile. Not seen for 101-days, missed his intended engagement in the Group 1 National Stakes due to coughing. Will have been trained for the race, trainer Aidan O’Brien seeks his 5^th win in the race since 2010, and given his sire is War Front he should go on the forecast fast ground. Stall 9 could have been better but he’s a big player.

New Mandate has improved on his last three starts and last time won the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket.  Was a shade keen at Newmarket and if he gets a bit of cover he could be capable of a better performance. No issues with the trip for the gelding and has a handy draw in stall 2.

Chad Brown saddled last years winner and he relies on Public Sector. The son of Kingman won a Saratoga maiden on his racecourse debut before finishing runner-up to one of today’s rivals Fire At Will in a Grade 2 at Belmont Park. Handy draw in stall 4 and he looks the sort to be suited by a strongly run race. A winner on firm ground he’s got decent each way claims.

Verdict: I’m expecting a big run from Battleground and Public Sector can get into the places.

1pt win – Battleground – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Public Sector – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

9:30 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – 1m

Plum Ali made it 3-3 when winning a Grade 2 at Pimlico 33-days ago. Looks open to more progress and has a good draw in stall 4. Looks the one to beat here.

Oodnadatta won a Leopardstown maiden on her racecourse debut before disappointing in a Group 3 at the same venue in August. Ran much better to finish third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes. The daughter of Australia is bred for middle distance so the step up to a mile should bring out more improvement in her. Each way claims if she doesn’t find this too much of a speed test.

Chad Brown has been the go-to trainer in this race in recent seasons and he goes in search of his 5^th win in the race since 2014. He saddles Editor At Large. The daughter of Lope De Vega has just the two career starts, winning a Saratoga maiden, before finishing third behind Plum Ali at Belmont Park.  Open to more improvement she should get the race run to suit but stall 14 will vert hatd to overcome.

Verdict: Plum Ali looks a Grade 1 filly in the making.  I’m expecting a big run from Editor At Large but her berth in 14 is a concern. If she’s not run off her feet in the early stages then Oodnadatta can get into the money.

1pt win – Plum Ali – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Oodnadatta – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers John