Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Things didn’t go to plan on Monday although The Domino Effect gave it a good go. I have some selections from Wetherby and Hereford which can help claw back Monday’s losses.

Wetherby

2:25 – Some Reign looked set for victory over C&D when falling at the last 26-days ago.  Goes well on good/ good to soft and provided his confidence has been dented won’t be far away off just a 2lb higher mark. Previous C&D winner Ballyvic Boru was the one to take advantage of Some Reign’s mishap. However, he looked held at the time and meets his old rival on 2lb worse terms today. He’s another who will be suited by the drying ground though.

1pt win – Some Reign – 100/30 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Hereford

3:20 – You can make a good case for six of the 11 runners in this handicap chase. My two against the field here Garrane and Clondaw Rigger:

Garrane has yet to win after 11 starts over fences but he’s often placed. Hopefully he will bounce out in front and make this a true stamina test. If he does maybe today’s the day, he can finally register a victory over the larger obstacles.

Clondaw Rigger will be able to take advantage of his present mark.  Ran well to finish runner-up at Ffos Las on his seasonal return and was still contention for second when falling at the last at Newton Abbot 27-days ago. The ground was heavy last time and he will prefer less today’s testing ground. A previous C&D winner who’s dropped down to his last winning mark and when he gets into a good jumping rhythm.

1pt win – Garrane – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Clondaw Rigger – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good day at Cork on Sunday with win from Chatham Street Lad and Rebel Early came so close to winning at big odds in the handicap hurdle. A profit, albeit a small one, from the weekend’s betting but I will take that every time.

There’s an interesting card at Kempton this afternoon. A Mares Listed race (2:00) is the feature race of a six-race card. However, most eyes will be on Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Shishkin who makes his debut over fences in the beginners’ chase (1:25).

Looking ahead we have the two-day Newbury Winter Carnival starting on Friday. The centerpiece of the two days is the Ladbroke Trophy on Saturday. Apart from the Grand National. The race is the most important handicap chase run during the National Hunt season and one of my favourite races of the year. Last year I tipped up the winner Da Rasher Counter at 14/1. I will be hoping to find the winner again in 2020.

Looking at the rest of the week. There won’t be any selections on Tuesday, it’s my day off, but there may be the odd one on Wednesday and Thursday. If not, the service will return on Friday.

Before all that. There are two handicaps at Kempton that have tempted me in today.

Kempton

2:30 – Getareason ran well on his first start since switching to Paul Nicholls when 3^rd of 7 at Sandown 15-days ago. That was his first run since a wind-op and first start for 12 months. Entitled to be fitter today and is unexposed over fences.

Locks Corner has returned from a winter break in excellent form winning twice over fences and finishing 2^nd of 17 in Pertemps Hurdle Series qualifier at Cheltenham last month. Likes good ground but is 14lb higher now over fences.

Psychedelic Rock goes well on good ground and a flat track. The 9-year-old was down the field on his first start for 495-days when 7^th of 11 at Stratford last month. Yard among the winners and if he builds on his Stratford run could run into the places.

Generous Day was 9^th in the Stratford race but that was his first start since a wind-op and he did win this race last year off 1lb higher. It was good to soft 12 months ago but he’s also won on good in the past. Good chance he’s been laid out for another win and can’t be dismissed off his present mark.

Mystical Clouds is another C&D winner having won in February, off 4lb lower, for previous trainer Alan King. The 7-year-old appreciates a sound surface finished 4^th in the Stratford race that the two previous horses ran in. That was a highly encouraging first for his new trainer. Should be shaper for that run and he’s only had four starts over fences.

1pt win – Generous Day – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Mystical Clouds -7/1 @ Bet365

3:10 – Eleven go to post for this 3m Class 4 handicap hurdle. Of those at the head of the overnight betting I like the claims of The Domino Effect. The 6-year-old ended last season with a good effort here when 3^rd of 12 in a 2m 5f novices’ hurdle, shaping if he needed further. Looked in need of the run and step up in distance when third here last month. Improvement expected on his handicap debut and looks the one to beat.

Board Of Trade doesn’t have many miles on the clock for a 9-year-old but he’s on a losing run of 13. He shaped with encouragement when 5^th of 12 at Lingfield (soft) last month. Will be all the better for that run fitness wise and should find today’s less testing ground more in his favour.

1pt win – Domino Effect – 100/30 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

0.5pts each way – Board Of Trade 14/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Main Fact saved the day, if you got on at the 8/1 advised, when winning the Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock. Arrivederci was still going well when falling three out and would have gone close at the same venue.

Today’s action is much lower key than recent Sunday offerings. It would be nice to end the weekend with a winner.  So, am I off across the Irish Sea to Navan and Cork for today’s selections.

Navan

2:55 – BetVictor Run For Your Money Handicap Hurdle – 2m 6f

Gavin Cromwell has a strong hand to play in the race with Walk Me Home & Tokyo Getaway. The former has been in good form since returning to action in August and looked like she was going to win when unseating her rider at the last over C&D 14-days ago. If none the worse for that mishap has strong claims on similar ground.

Tokyo Getaway was sent off the 4/1 favourite for the Cork National but could never get competitive from the year. Prior to that she had made a good return to action when 3^rd of 14 over hurdles at Limerick. This trip is a bit short of the mares best but she’s better than she was able to show last time and both career wins have come with heavy in the going description.

Oh’herewego might be a 11-year-old but he showed that the fire remains in his belly when beaten just ½ length in this race 12 months ago.  Just 1lb higher now and a useful conditional takes off a handy 7lb. Two runs since February, ran well when finishing 3^rd of 10 at Tipperary last time, should have him spot on fitness wise. Looks the sort to run his race and can get into the money.

1pt win – Tokyo Getaway – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Oh’herewego – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 0dds)

Cork

2:00 – Kevin McManus Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4f

Plenty of contenders in this trappy looking handicap hurdle. Slippery Serpent returned from 581-day layoff to finish and encouraging 5^th of 10 at Galway last month. That was over 2m and he should do better stepped back up to 2m 4f. Just 2lb above his last winning mark and can go well if building on his Galway performance.

No Memory has won two of her last three starts over hurdles. Up 8lb, for beating one of today’s rivals Owenacurra Lass by 1 ½ lengths at Wexford last month. Owenacurra Lass is entitled to get closer to her old rival, at the revised weights and was a good third in this race 12 months ago. However, you would think that No Memory is open to a bit more progression given she’s only had five starts over hurdles.

Jukebox Jive, last year’s Irish November Handicap has had just two starts since December, finishing 15^th of 34 in the Cesarewitch and then ran well for a long way in this seasons November Handicap. Just the four starts over hurdles and goes well on heavy ground. Looks on a competitive mark if getting his act together over hurdles. Trainer Gavin Cromwell had a double at Naas on Saturday.

Rebel Early won a 2m 4f handicap hurdle at Gowran Park on heavy in January, off 6lb lower. The mare shaped like she could be about to hit winning form when 4^th of 12, behind the very well handicapped Dreal Deal in a Ladies only handicap hurdle at Punchestown 25-days ago. No issues with going/distance and the 6-year-old shouldn’t far away.

1pt win – Rebel Early – 12/1 @ Bet365

3:10 – Mallow Handicap Chase – 2m ½ f

Another interesting if trappy handicap. Off You Go was the best of these over hurdles and won the valuable 2m Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown in February 2019. Went novice chasing last season, 0 wins from 5 starts, but was highly tried on occasions. First run since February so may be better for the run but he did win off a similar lay off two seasons back. Handicap chase debut today and the 7-year-old races off a 13lb lower mark than over hurdles. Top-weight of 11-10 to defy but Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb.

Henry De Bromhead has a couple of interesting contenders making their seasonal returns in Arvico Bleu & Capuccimix. The former is 0-8 over fences but ran well in a couple of good handicap chases at the end of last year. On a fair mark and interesting in the first-time tongue tie but may prefer slightly less testing conditions than likely here. Capuccimix on the other hand needs soft ground. The 7-year-old did well on his first four starts novice chasing, making all to win a beginners’ chase at Naas in March. Not so good back in a Grade 3 at Thurles 13-days later. Another who may be better for the run but has gone well first time up in the last two seasons and looks the sort who can win races now going handicapping for the first time.  

Chatham Street Lad a useful handicap hurdler two seasons back, 3-4 over hurdles at Cork, returned from 463-day layoff to win a handicap chase in good style at Ballinrobe (soft) in October. Struggled in a novice chase at Galway 7-days later, race may have come to quick, and better can be expected returned a track he’s gone well at in the past.

1pt win – Capuccimix – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Chatham Street Lad – 7/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Saturday Selections

Haydock

12:40

1pt each way – Ice Cool Champs – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 3 places ¼ odds)

1:50

1pt win – Arrivederci – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25

1pt win – Imperial Alcazar – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Main Fact – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:35

1pt win – Sheneededtherun – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Alminar – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes

Ascot

3:17

1pt win – Capeland – 9/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Drumconnor Lad – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good start to the weekend with an Ascot Double on Friday.

What a fabulous days racing with Haydock & Ascot both providing high quality action for ITV viewers.

Twelve months ago, the Grade 1 Betfair Chase was slightly overshadowed by Altior and Cyrname running in the Grade 2 at Ascot. No problem this year and it’s the Haydock race that will rightly capture all the racing headlines.

This is my in depth preview of eight races at Haydock and Ascot. Five of them on ITV which allows you to digest some of Saturday races at leisure.

My final Saturday selections will be with you early tomorrow morning.

Haydock

12:40 – Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

This handicap chase isn’t on ITV but it’s a competitive race that has attracted a good field of 12 runners.

The market is likely to be headed by Secret Reprieve. The 6-year-old had three starts over fences last season and looks to be on a good mark for his handicap chase debut. Won on heavy ground over hurdles so goes on easy ground. First run since last December but likely fit enough for this. Trainer Evan Williams won the race in 2011.

Deise Aba got his act together over fences in the second half of last season winning twice before finishing a respectable 5^th of 23 in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. Better expected from the 7-year-old this season and his main aim is the Welsh Grand National.

Bob Mahler finished two places in front of Deise Aba in the Kim Muir. Prior to that he had finished strongly to win the 4m 1f Edinburgh National. Pulled up on his seasonal reappearance and has since had a wind-op. Handicapped to run well although he probably won’t the ground to soft. Trainer form is a concern as Warren Greatrex has gone 32-days since saddling a winner.

Newtide is another being aimed at the Welsh Grand National. All winning form on soft ground and won on his seasonal reappearance, beating Secret Reprieve 2 ½ lengths. That one gets 10lb from him today so Newtide will have to have improved over the summer to beat the favourite.

Ice Cool Champs returned from a 323-day absence to win on his stable debut for Kerry Lee at Wetherby (soft) in January.  Disappointed on his next two starts but is maybe the type to catch fresh. All three wins on soft/heavy and Sam Twiston-Davies 3-15 +18.75 when teaming up with trainer Kerry Lee. On a good mark and has each way claims.

1:50 – Betfair Racing Only Bettor Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3f

Seventeen have been declared for what looks a really competitive handicap hurdle.

Recent Ascot winner Kid Commando. The handicapper has only raised him 7lb for that success which isn’t harsh and he’s open to more improvement. No problem with soft ground, form figures 1211 on the going. Steps up 3 furlongs in trip but if he stays, he will be tough to beat.

Flash The Steel was an excellent second in a valuable handicap hurdle at Chepstow last month. He was 8lb higher than when winning the same race 12 months earlier. The ground was plenty quick enough at Chepstow and today’s easier ground will suit the 8-year-old better.

Arrivederci bids for a hat trick after making a winning seasonal reappearance at Wetherby three weeks ago. No issues with going/distance for the 5-year-old who has been raised 8lb for his last win. Open to more progress and is one for the shortlist.

Shakem Up’Arry a useful novice last season finishing runner-up to both Shishken & Mister Coffey. Broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the fifth attempt at Ffos Las 13-days ago. Handicap debut off a workable mark and shouldn’t be far away.

Umbrigado looked to be travelling like the most likely winner coming to three out in the stayers’ handicap hurdle on this card 12 months ago before his stamina ran out. Not so good on his next two starts but starts the season on a good mark and this distance could suit the 6-year-old.

Our Power seemed to get his act together over hurdles for stepping up in distance in the second half of last season culminating in a win a valuable 2m 5f handicap hurdle at Kempton in March. Ran a very promising race when 6th of 19th at Cheltenham on his return to action last month.  Will be fitter for that run and will be more suited to this flatter track.

14:25 – Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f

A maximum field of 17 has been declared for arguably the big betting race of the day.

Recent Fontwell, soft ground winner Collooney is up 5lb for that success but has the scope to improve for the step up to 3m.

Imperial Alcazar has been backed into favouritism this week. The 6-year-old looked a useful prospect when beating three rivals at Leicester 297-days ago. Both his career wins have come on soft and heavy. Unexposed and could be on a good mark for his handicap debut.

Dolphin Square & Third Wind were second and fifth respectively in a Pertemps Series Qualifier at Newbury 16-days ago. The latter has three lengths to find on that running but is 2lb better off. An excellent 4th of 24 in last season’s Pertemps Final. I fancy that Third Wind can finish in front this time, especially as his form figures on soft/heavy are 11114.

Seven-year-olds are 0-35 5 placed in the past ten years. However, there are couple of lively contenders from that age group in Main Fact and The Jam Man.

The Jam Man showed he was a well handicapped horse over the larger obstacles when easily wining the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase 13-days ago. Another big run can’t be ruled out back over hurdles.

Main Fact has been well placed to take advantage of low handicap mark to win three times on the flat. Ended last season very much on the upgrade over hurdles winning his last five starts, including a 2m 4f Class 2 handicap at Uttoxeter in March. Up 15lb for that win but may not have reached his class ceiling yet. First start beyond 2m 4f and although he’s not certain stayer on pedigree he shapes like he will. Trainer David Pipe knows what’s required to win the race 3-12 +5.5 in the past ten years.

Relegate won the Champion Bumper in 2018 for previous trainer Willie Mullins. Was sent off the 11/2 joint favourite for the Pertemps Series Final at Cheltenham on just her second start for Colm Murphy. Was set to much to do but finished her race of well enough to finish 5^th of 24, just one place behind Third Wind. Caught the eye on her Navan reappearance and gets the first time cheekpieces which will hopefully help her travel better as she can get too far out of her ground in her races.

West To The Bridge put in a career best effort over hurdles when winning at Carlisle (heavy) 20-days ago. All four of the 7-year-old career wins have come on soft/heavy so underfoot conditions will hold no terrors for him. Stamina for 3m to still to be proven but trainer Dan Skelton saddled the winner of the race in 2015. Up 7lb for his Carlisle win and in a deeper race but still comes into consideration.

Who Dares Wins is a thorough stayer and has been a wonderful servant for connections having won at Royal Ascot and the Northumberland Plate on the flat and won over fences. Three wins from 13 starts over hurdles but his best performances over the smaller obstacles came when third in the 2017 Coral Cup and close-up in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree a year later. The 8-year-old is nicely handicapped on his best hurdle form and should give it a good go if the ground isn’t too testing.

3:00 – Betfair Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

Just five are set to go to post for this year’s race. If we assume that Bellshill & Keeper Hill are competing for the minor money and 4th place. That leaves last years first and second Lostintranslation & Bristol De Mail and Clan Des Obeaux as genuine contenders for the £90,032 on offer to the winner.

Lostintranslation had the benefit of run when winning last year. He will be making his seasonal debut here. The Tizzard runners have been needing their first runs but I think he will pretty much spot on for this. The 8-year-old’s form figures are 211 when returning from a 121+day absence. His sole poor run last season came when pulling up in the King George VI. The wind-op he had after Kempton seemed to have worked the trick as he was an excellent third in the Gold Cup.

It’s no exaggeration to say this is Bristol De Mai’s Gold Cup. A dual winner of the race in 2018 & 2019. He’s 4-5 at Haydock and last year was the first time he had been beaten at the course. No issues first time up and if the ground did become really testing, he would have a serious chance of reversing places with Lostintranslation.

Clan Des Obeaux looks a shade overpriced at around 3/1, as he’s joint top on Official Ratings (OR). However, he’s 0-4 on his first run of the season compared with 4-4 on his second start and was only 4th in the race in 2018. That said he’s a better horse now than he was two years ago and I think trainer Paul Nicholls will have the 8-year-old straight for this. Flat track suits as does soft ground. But is he a better horse at 3m?

3:35 – My Odds Boost On Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Don Poli very useful for Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott placing in the Gold Cup and in Grade 1 chases. Won twice in point to points last season and is now with Dan Skelton. Ran well for a long way in a Veterans’ Chase at Aintree on his stable debut last month. Trainer says he’s hard to get fit and he will have needed his reappearance. On a tempting handicap mark if building on his Aintree run.

Pobbles Bay finished two places in front of Don Poli at Aintree. The 10-yearpold showed there that he hasn’t lost his enthusiasm for the game and is now down to his last winning mark. Last win came over today’s distance in the West Wales National at Ffos Las in April 2019 and he can’t be ruled out off this mark.

Kings Monarch returned for the first time since pulling up last December, when winning 3m handicap chase at Ffos Las (Heavy) last month. He finished third in this race 12 months ago and remains unexposed over marathon distances.

Perfect Candidate is now a 13-year-old but he showed he could still be capable of winning in this company when successful in this race 12 months ago. Seasonal return at Aintree will have blown the cobwebs away and he can’t be discounted, even off 5lb higher.

Sheneededtherun improved to win four handicap chases last season and showed good reserves of stamina to win over 3m 5 ½ f at Bangor in February.  Below her best but not disgraced when 4^th of 14 in the Midlands Grand National on her final start last season. Now 8lb higher than for her last win but she goes well on soft/heavy ground.

Alminar is 2-8 over fences and made a promising return to action when 3^rd of 13 at Cheltenham last month. The 7-year-old goes very well on soft/heavy ground and looked the sort who could improve for a marathon trip like this.

Midnight Tune loves heavy ground and stays very well but her best form has come in field sizes seven or less.  First run since a wind-op and if it’s had the desired effect then mare looks set for a bold run.

Financial Outcome travelled and jumped nicely to win a 3m 2f handicap chase Doncaster in February. However, his jumping has let him down on several occasions since. Runner-up to Kings Monarch on his seasonal return at Ffos Las. Sent off the 3/1 favourite for his next start at Wetherby but made a bad mistake at the 6^th and that was his race run. If he can reproduce his run behind Kings Monarch then he’s a contender.

Ascot

Three races come under the microscope. The first isn’t on ITV but it’s a decent looking 3m novices’ handicap chase.

12:55 – Play The Coral “Racing Super Series” Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m

Demachine and Young Bull were first and third in what looks like it was a good novices’ handicap chaser at Uttoxeter with the runner-up Morning Vicar going onto win next time out. The winner has been raised 10lb for that win but it was just his first start over fences and can rate higher. Young Bull might well have needed the run more than the winner and he’s entitled to get closer on 9lb better terms for a 7 ½ length beating. The step up to 3m should also be in his favour and I think he can finish ahead today.  You can never rule out a Venetia Williams chaser on soft ground and Hold That Thought must be respected. Runner-up on his handicap debut at Lingfield last month.  Up 4lb for that performance but he’s started chasing on a good mark and won’t be far away.

2:05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 5f

Like the Betfair Chase It’s a small but select field for the race, in this case just the four runners. However, you can’t discount any of them. Paul Nicholls saddles Real Steel & Black Corton. The former is having his first start since joining the yard from Willie Mullins. He was very good going right-handed when trained in Ireland. Imperial Aura impressed when making a winning seasonal return at Carlisle. Thus, maintaining his improved form of last season over fences which saw him win a valuable handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Itchy Feet unseated his rider in the Arkle Novices’ Chase at the Festival but prior to that had impressed when winning a Grade 1 Novice Chase at Sandown. Jumping was a bit rusty on his seasonal reappearance when finishing third in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree last month. Expected to be fitter today and although he will need to improve again to win this. It’s worth noting he’s 2-2 going right-handed over fences.

3:17 – Coral Hurst Park Handicap Chase – (Class 2) – 2m 1f

Magic Saint appreciated the drop back to 2m when winning at Cheltenham 8-days ago.  Can’t be ruled out but he’s up 7lb makes life tougher and he’s 0-4 on soft ground.  Stablemate Capeland who won this race 12 months ago. Now 7lb higher, he unseated his rider at the 6^th over C&D and gets the first time cheekpieces.  Looks a stronger contender than Magic Saint on soft ground.

Amoola Gold won that Ascot race which made it 2-2 this season for the 7-year-old. Has a 6lb more to carry here but given he’s only had the 8 starts over fences you couldn’t rule out further improvement.

Drumconnor Lad might be a 10-year-old but he put in a career best effort when winning at Ayr on his return to action three weeks ago. Up 5lb for that win and racing off a career high mark but given his present form can’t be ruled out.

Abbey Magic is a rare handicap runner from the Henry De Bromhead stable. Has returned from a 678-day absence in great form finishing runner-up on her first run back before making it 4-5 over fences when landing a valuable Cork handicap chase last month. Has 3lb more to carry than she would if racing in Ireland but not impossible she can improve further.

First Flow a useful enough hurdler improved for going over fences last season winning 4 of his 8 starts. Seasonal reappearance today and whilst he’s won on soft, he’s even better on heavy with his form figures being 31111.  No great record first time up being 0-4 1 placed on his first run of the season. Likely on winning mark if ready to roll but may not run unless the ground is genuinely soft according to trainer Kim Bailey.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Rathbone suffered the fate of all good each way bets in finishing 4^th at Chelmsford yesterday evening. 

It’s Friday and the weekend starts here. There’s a decent card at Ascot which part is day one of a two-day meeting at the Berkshire track.

The highlight of the weekend though is Haydock’s Betfair Chase Day. In addition to the Grade 1 feature race there is an excellent supporting card with Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle the standout of four competitive looking handicaps that have attracted good field sizes.

Onto today’s action. It’s soft, good to soft in places at Ascot. There’s a possibility of some rain on Friday morning which should keep the going soft.

The four handicaps that close the card are the ones that interest me most.

Ascot

2:05 – Coral Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Red Risk heads the overnight betting. The 5-year-old looked useful recruit to the Paul Nicholls yard when winning easily winning a Ludlow handicap chase (soft) in February. Looked a bit rusty when 3^rd of 10 at Market Rasen on his return to action last month. Today’s easier should better than last time and he’s got solid claims.

Espoir De Guye looked a handicap chaser on the up last season. Runner-up to Simply The Betts on his chase debut before winning back to back handicap chases at Exeter and here (2m 3f) last December. Ran poorly when pulled up at the Cheltenham Festival (8/1) in a race won by Imperial Aura. Has had a wind-op since that run and hopefully he can get back into the groove today. The softer the ground the better his chance.

1pt win – Espoir De Guye – 100/30 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:40 – Coral ‘Fail To Finish’ Free Bet Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Nicky Henderson has saddled the winner of this race three times in the last 10-years and he has likely short priced favourite Buzz. A winner of his first two starts over hurdles last season before disappointing in a Grade 2 at Kempton. Showed that running was all wrong when finishing 3^rd of 12 in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on his handicap hurdle debut last month, a neck behind Ballyandy.  

Ecco who finished a well beaten 8^th in the same race, was sent off the 9/2 favourite is next in the betting.  It’s hard to see him beating the favourite on that running but he did win twice last year, including C&D, and may be better going right-handed. Gets’ the first time cheekpieces today which should help him concentrate better. If you forgive his last run, he looks on a winnable mark.

The 9-year-old Eddiemaurice has won twice at the course in the past, including this race in 2016.  He will be sharper for a recent spin on the flat and must be respected on a track that suits.

Kloud Gate was progressive handicap hurdler two seasons back winning twice before finishing lame when favourite for the valuable Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January 2019. Not seen out since and has a 678-day absence to overcome today. Probably on a good handicap mark if he retained his old ability.

Rosie And Millie looked useful in mare’s novice hurdles last season winning at Ayr before finishing runner-up in a Listed race at Haydock.  Returned from a wind-op to finish a promising 4^th in a Listed race at Wetherby last month, the third won a handicap hurdle at Fakenham this week. Improvement can be expected and she could get into the money on her handicap debut.

3:15 – Watch Racing Free Online At Coral Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m

Wandrin Star goes well fresh and has won first time up in the past two seasons. Found plenty for pressure when winning at Wincanton, off 2lb lower last October. That win came over an extended 3m 2f but he’s just as effective over 3m provided they go an even gallop. First run since a wind-op could be the time to catch the 9-year-old.

Didero Vallis won twice over fences in this class two seasons back before seeming to struggle in a higher-grade company. Two low key runs early last season before bouncing back to form when runner-up to Top Ville Ben in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in December.  Goes well on soft ground and looks competitive off a mark of 132 if ready to roll first time.

Townshend won a C&D handicap chase on heavy in January and will appreciate today’s drop-in class after a poor run here behind Regal Encore 20-days ago.

Favorito Bucks won this race in 2018 off 1lb higher but it was good ground that day and the 8-year-old’s best form has come on a sound surface.

Pure Vision is a fascinating contender on his first run since a wind-op. The 9-year-old returns from a mammoth 734-day absence but is potentially on a good handicap mark for his return to action.  Trainer Anthony Honeyball has a good recent record with his chasers returning from a 181+ day layoff with 11 winners from 31 runners 36% +37.53 13 placed 42%.

Onefortheroadtom in the same colours as Pure Vision finally got off the mark over fences at the 11^th attempt when winning at Fakenham back in March. Seasonal return but has gone well fresh in the past. He’s got plenty of ability and is only 4lb higher than for his last success.

1pt win – Didero Vallis – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Onefortheroadtom – 6/1 – Gen

3:45 – Coral Supporting Prostate Cancer UK Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 2m 7 ½ f

Apple Rock won on his seasonal return at Carlisle (soft) two starts back but failed to give his running when beaten favourite (5/6) at Wetherby last time. Today’s stiffer stamina test should suit the 6-year-old better.

Tide Times has shown ability in maiden company putting up a career best on RPR’s when 3^rd of 15 at Chepstow 24-days ago.  Handicap hurdle debut and races like he can improve for the step up 3m.

Certainly Red is a maiden after seven starts over hurdles but has placed on three of his last four starts. Solid third at Lingfield last month off an unchanged mark. No problem with trip/ground and the 6-year-old who wouldn’t be winning out of turn.

1pt win – Certainly Red – 11/2 – Gen

1pt win – Tide Times – 6/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Just the one winner yesterday but it was the early priced advised 8/1 Potters Legend. Well backed, the softening ground was in his favour and it was stamina that won the day. Vintage Clouds ran better than he did on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree and isn’t one to give on just yet. There is a race in him when the Sue Smith stable is in better form.

The most valuable race of the day is the 2m 6f Listed Chase (1:20) at Thurles. It features the like of Monalee, Kemboy, Presenting Percy and the unexposed over fences Darasso. The first two named are making their seasonal reappearance. Presenting Percy has the benefit of a recent run but needs to jump better than he did at Down Royal. Darasso steps up to 2m 6f but he can’t be totally dismissed especially if the going changes to heavy.

It might be a Listed race but, it’s really Grade 2 quality. Monalee looks the most likely winner given he goes well fresh and is effective on soft ground but I will be watching Darasso with interest.

I have two selections for you from Thurles and Chelmsford

Chelmsford

5:30 – Race favourite Aberama Gold could be a well handicapped horse on just his second start on the all-weather. A winner of Class 2 handicap at Doncaster two starts back. He made Dakota Gold pull out the stops when 2nd of 15 in a Listed race back at the same venue 12-days ago. Will be tough to beat if reproducing that run here.

Rathbone is 0-4, but has placed three times on the synthetics and two of his best three RPR’s have come at Newcastle. He was well behind Aberama Gold at Doncaster last time but that was soft ground which doesn’t suit. He’s better judged on his 2nd of 11, beaten a head off today’s mark at Ascot in September. And when running recent Group 1 winner Glen Shiel to 2 ½ lengths at Newcastle in June. Drawn out wide in 10 but has each way claims.

1pt each way – Rathbone – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Thurles

2:55 – Optum is one of the least exposed runners in this 2m 4f handicap hurdle. The 5-year-old looked like he was going to win on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse 9-days ago. Clear at the last but got caught in the final strides and had to settle for the runners-up spot. Was beaten a short head in a maiden hurdle here in March. Nudged up 3lb but he remains on a competitive mark.

1pt win – Optum – 5/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Today’s highlights are a Veterans Chase at Warwick (3:15) and Listed race and two Class 2 handicaps at Kempton.  I have two selections in the Veterans’ Chase and a couple from Dundalk.

Warwick

3:15 – Just the seven go to post for this Veterans Chase Series qualifier. Present Man has obvious claims on a track that will suit his bold jumping style. However, I like a couple at bigger odds who are handicapped to go well if bouncing back to form.

Trainer Sue Smith ‘s runners have been needing the run and Vintage Clouds who was well beaten on his seasonal return at Aintree was one who certainly did. Showed last season that he was still capable of going well when landing the valuable Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock in January, off 4lb lower. The 10-year-old needs to get into a good jumping rhythm from the off to win.

Potters Legend could get the race run to suit with plenty of pace expected, despite the small field. First run since a wind-op for the 10-year-old who has dropped down to his last winning mark. Has gone well off a break in the past 2-4 when returning from a 121+ day layoff.

1pt win – Vintage Clouds – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Potters Legend – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Dundalk

1:50 – Clonard Abbey might be a 15-race maiden but she finished runner-up on her last two runs over C&D. Was beaten just a neck 21-days and can race off 1lb lower today. Handy low draw and should go close again.

1pt win – Clonard Abbey – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

4:10 – Latchet is one of the best handicapped horses running at Dundalk this afternoon.  Twice a course winner. The mare is now 9lb below her last winning mark which came here over an extended 1m 2f last October. Shaped with promise when 6^th of 13 over C&D 7-days ago and looks set to go well from a good draw in stall 5.

1pt win – Latchet – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tremendous Saturday ahead which is headlined by the first British Grade 1 of the season, the Betfair Chase (3.00) at Haydock. The Colin Tizzard-trained Lostintranslation, who beat dual race winner Bristol De Mai last year, is the early favourite, and the pair will do battle again. Add in double King George winner Clan Des Obeaux and you have the makings of a cracker.

In addition to the Betfair Chase, Haydock has a nicely balanced card  which should offer plenty of betting opportunities for punters with The Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25) likely to attract a decent sized field.

The ITV cameras will be covering eight races on Saturday. Four from Haydock and four from an interesting looking Ascot card.

Nothing from me today. I couldn’t find anything that really interested me at decent odds. However, there should be a few selections over the next couple of days.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Plumpton

2:20 – Wenceslaus made a promising seasonal reappearance when 2nd of 7 at Uttoxeter last month before running too bad to be true at Huntingdon 15-days ago. Needs to overcome that poor performance today but a return to Plumpton where his form figures are 7111 can hopefully show the 8-year-old in a better light.  Last win came here on heavy in February, off 7lb lower. Hopefully he receives market support this afternoon. As all five of his career wins from nine runs have come when he was returned 6/1 & under.

1pt win – Wenceslaus – 100/30 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Kempton

6:30 – Apart from a good effort on his first run since lockdown in June. The 7-year-old has been run poorly on turf. Well-being has to be taken on trust and hopes are pinned on a return to Kempton producing a return to form. He’s 3-5 over C&D and returns for the first time on the polytrack since February when he won off a 2lb higher mark. Stall 12 isn’t ideal but Jim Crowley booked and trainer Kim Bailey has his jumpers in great form.

1pt win – Blazon – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John