Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

No joy for Echo Watt on Tuesday who’s jumping was rusty on his return to action at Uttoxeter.

There are no selections today although chase debutant Palmers Hill in the 2:15 at Taunton would be interesting at 11/4 or bigger.

It’s day one of Cheltenham’s International Meeting tomorrow so there should be some good betting opportunities over the next few days.

From today and each Thursday I will be sending out any ante post bets. The focus will be on building up my Cheltenham Festival betting portfolio but it will also be the place to get other ante post selections for upcoming big races.

There was a time when the edge seemed to have been take away from ante Post betting. However, in the last couple of seasons I think the wheel has turned full circle back in favour of this type of bet.

This long view betting of course comes with bigger risks than day to day betting, i.e., your selection may not run and you lose your stake. But the risks are mitigated by the potentially higher returns if the bets are successful.

Last season I shared my Cheltenham ante post portfolio with subscribers and to advised prices it made 56.60pts profit. In old money that’s £565 to £10 stakes and paid for four months subscription with tidy profit on top.  

N.B. All the bets will be 2pts win or 1pt each way.

If last year is any guide It’s going to be an exciting ride so, let’s get started.

Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selections:

I have had three Cheltenham Festival ante post bets.  Interestingly the first two selections are in races that I wouldn’t probably have a bet in come the day.

Mares Novices Hurdle

Trainer John ‘Shark’ Hanlon has a serious Cheltenham contender in Skyace. The 5-year-old picked up for just £600 from Willie Mullins has really improved on her last two starts. She caused a 66/1 shock when winning a Grade 3 Mares Hurdle at Down Royal two starts back and showed that success was no fluke when winning a 2m 4f Listed Hurdle in the fog at Punchestown on Sunday.

Now 4-8 over hurdles. If she still trained by Willie Mullins, she wouldn’t be a 25/1 shot for the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival she would be single figure odds. Make no mistake this is a very good mare who won’t be disgraced if she takes her place in the race. Given her cost the daughter of Westerner is a fairy-tale in waiting.

1pt each way – Skyace – 25/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet

Triumph Hurdle

An Aga Khan bred 3-year-old. The son of Nathanial won at the fourth time of asking on the flat in July when trained by Michael Halford. Now with Gordon Elliott the gelding made a winning hurdle debut at Ballinrobe. He had clearly learned from that experience when impressively winning a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last month. There were just five runners in the race but it looked a strong renewal.

Previous race winners include Champion Hurdle winner Espoir D’allen who won the race in 2017 and 2012 Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor. It’s the best performance we have seen so far by a juvenile. He got a RPR of 145 for his Fairyhouse win which is 3lb more than Goshen had achieved at the same point in his career. Of course, we may not have seen next year’s Triumph Hurdle winner yet but it will take a good one to beat Zanahiyr.  Not much a of a price but even at around 4/1 he looks a bet.

2pts win – Zanahiyr –  4/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Star Gate a winner of an Irish point cost the Rucker’s £140,000 when bought out of the Cheltenham February Sales. Sent into training with Evan Williams he made an impressive winning hurdles debut at Chepstow in October (in a good time). Pitched into the 2m 4f Grade 2 at Sandown’s Tingle Creek Meeting. Due to heavy ground, he faced just two rivals. They went no gallop and the race turned into a bit of a sprint over the last two hurdles. The 5/4 favourite had to much for speed for his rivals and ran out an easy 8 ½ length winner.

Granted both his wins have come on soft & heavy ground so we must take on trust how good he will be on a sounder surface but make no mistake he’s a smart recruit to hurdling and would be shorter in the betting for the Ballymore if trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson.

1pt each way – Star Gate – 20/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power

Next week, I will have one for the Aintree Grand National and maybe one for the Welsh Grand National.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A quick update on what to expect for the rest of the week.

Looks like a quite week on the punting front until Friday which sees the start of the two-day International Meeting at Cheltenham. You can see the best of the action on ITV racing. When the course will be witnessing the return of paying spectators for the first time since the Festival.

There will now be an eight-race card on Friday with Sunday’s abandoned Peterborough Chase being moved from Huntingdon to jump racings headquarters.

On Saturday the feature races are Grade 2 International Hurdle (3.00) and The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (1.50) is the big betting race of the weekend. I’m not expecting many selections until Friday but I do have one running at Uttoxeter today.

Watch your inboxes on Thursday for my first ante post selections next year’s Cheltenham Festival.

Uttoxeter

2:47 – Echo Watt won two of his first three starts over fences, including here (3m) early in the year. Struggled when upped in class/distance at Warwick when last seen in March. Remains unexposed over fences and the drop back in class will help. If ready to roll should go close.

1pt win – Echo Watt – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Smooth Stepper plugged on to take 5^th in the Becher Chase yesterday at 25/1 but we had to wait until the final race at Sandown when Benson stayed on strongly after the last to catch Galice Macalo in the final 75yds.  Still a profitable day and hopefully we can end the weekend on a high.

Sadly, we lost Sunday’s Huntingdon meeting and with it the Peterborough Chase due to parts of the racecourse being flooded after the nearby river burst in banks. Let’s hope the race can be rescheduled as it was a couple of seasons back when the same thing happened.

Still we have a couple of good races to look forward to on Sunday with the Borders National (3:20) at Kelso and of course the little matter of the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase (1:40) at Punchestown. The race has attracted arguably it’s strongest field in years and it’s no exaggeration to say there’s unlikely to be a better race than this before the Cheltenham Festival.  

Punchestown

1:40 – John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase – 2m 4 ½ f

Last season’s Ryanair Chase winner Min brings the best form to the table and bids for a hat trick in the race but this is much stronger than the two he won first time up. Still he’s the one to beat.

Min’s stablemate Allaho also makes his seasonal reappearance here. The 6-year-old ended last season with a 3^rd of 10 behind Champ in the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. Drop back in distance but there is a good chance it will suit and he’s probably got more improvement in him given he’s only had three starts over fences.

Besides those two trainer Willie Mullins also saddles Melon & Tornado Flyer. The former finished runner-up to Samcro (beaten a nose) in the Marsh Novices’ Chase. That was a career best effort from the 8-year-old but he will probably need another to win this. Tornado Flyer has the benefit of race fitness compared to his three stablemates but this looks a tough ask for the 7-year-old on ratings.

Gordon Elliott saddles Battleofdoyen & Samcro. Both have a race under the belt having finished first & third in a Grade 2 at Down Royal 36-days ago. Battleoverdoyen jumped solidly and put in a career best effort in winning last time. He was well behind by Allaho in the RSA in 4^th but this is more his distance. First run on heavy for the 7-year-old but he should handle it.

Interestingly Jack Kennedy keeps faith with Samcro who has six lengths to find with his stablemate. In Samcro’s defence he would have finished closer at Down Royal but for a mistake three out.

Chris’s Dream looked to be travelling like the most likely winner coming to the last but just lost out to the race fit The Storyteller in the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Down Royal. A strong traveller, the drop back to an extended 2m 4f could suit.

Verdict: Min is the one to beat but there are some serious rivals in Chris’s Dream, Allaho and the Elliott pair. At the prices I like Battleoverdoyen & Samcro with a preference for the former who looked much improved when winning last time. Two from two at Punchestown he will do for me if he handles the heavy ground.  

1pt win – Battleoverdoyen – 6/1 @ Bet365

Kelso

3:20 – Persimmon Homes Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 4m ½ f

It’s not the John Durkan but still a competitive 13 runner staying handicap chase.

Sandy Thomson like to plot one out for this race and saddles likely favourite in Duc De Grissay.  A course winner back in March on his just his second start over fences. He made a solid return to action when 4^th of 12 in the Durham National showing he stays 4m in the process. Big player but may prefer softer ground.

Bigirononhiship won both his starts last season including this race last year. Not disgraced when runner-up at Ayr first time up last month. This will have been the target and although he’s 10lb higher this time around he’s got a great chance of back to back wins in the race.

Just Your Type was runner-up in last years race and the slightly better ground could see him finish closer to Bigirononhiship this time.

Iwilldoit won here last December. That was the 7-year-old only start over fences so he lacks experience compared to his rivals but it also means he’s open to more progress over the larger obstacles. I think a mark of 133 will be defied by the 7-year-old some time this season but whether it’s here over 4m on his first start since 343-days is open to doubt.

Bob Mahler got up in the final strides to win the Edinburgh National in February, off 5lb lower, and finished 3^rd of 23 in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.  Has pulled up on both starts this season but today’s ground will suit him better and trainer had a welcome winner at Sandown on Friday.

Looking Well looked like the most likely winner of this race when falling out three out two years ago. A dual course winner he’s just 3lb higher than his last winning mark. Ran well on his first start since March 2019 when 4^th over hurdles here last month. The cheekpieces are back on for a return to fences and the 11-year-old is capable of big run on good to soft ground.

Red Giant followed up his win in the Durham National with a good second at Catterick. Not out of it here but may prefer quicker ground.

Classic Example made all to win at Southwell on his fourth start over fences. Up 10lb but is going the right way.

One For Us is another who has pulled up on his last two starts. He won the Southern National last November but has looked out of sorts since. Two from three when racing 3m 4f+ and gets the first-time blinkers which need to make a big difference. If they do, he’s got have a chance off his last winning mark.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect. Duc De Grissay looks an ideal type for the race and should be kept on side. Last year’s winner Bigirononhiship can’t be ruled out. Iwilldoit is very interesting and looks on a winnable mark but lacks a bit of experience. Looking Well should have won this two years ago and provided the ground isn’t to soft should go close.

1pt win – Duc De Grissay – 9/2 – Gen

1pt win – Looking Well – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Dawson’s City ran a blinder at Exeter he just found trying to give 20lb to the eventual winner to much in the final few strides and was beaten a head.

A cracking day’s racing. It looks a tremendous renewal of the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown with the returning Altior facing five rivals. There’s also a high-class card at Aintree with a return to racing over the Grand National fences for the first time in 12 months.

Sandown

The going was testing on both chase & hurdle tracks at Sandown on Friday so you need to factor that into your betting today.  Two Grade 1’s begin the ITV coverage from Sandown

1:50 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f

There may only be six runners but It looks a strong renewal of the race with all six runners being unbeaten over the larger obstacles.

Allmankind made all to make a winning chase debut at Warwick. It was an impressive performance he jumped well and ran out a comfortable winner. The well beaten runner-up Zanza won a handicap chase at Newbury last Saturday off a mark of 138.

Paul Nicholls is 4 winners from 13 runners 31% + 7.36 6 places with his runners in the race since 2008. He saddles Ffos Las beginners chase winner Hitman and equally impressive Wincanton novices’ handicap chase winner Tamaroc Du Mathan. Hitman is the choice of jockey Harry Cobden and looks the most likely of the pair but I did like the quality of Tamaroc Du Mathan’s jumping and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Eldorado Allen has had one more start over fences than other three mentioned. Jumped slickly when winning a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Cheltenham three weeks ago. Highly regarded by connections, trainer Colin Tizzard described him as the “best two-miler we’ve had” after his Cheltenham success.

Ga Law has won all three starts over fences. Won a Wincanton Grade 2 last time, over 2m 4f. The drop back shouldn’t be an inconvenience for the 4-year-old on this ground which will bring his stamina into play.

Phoenix Way showed the better turn of foot to beat two rivals in a Warwick novices’ chase on his return to action.  A winner over 3m 1f over hurdles last season he showed at Warwick that he doesn’t lack tactical speed.

Verdict: I wasn’t going to have a selection in the race, as it more a race to watch than bet in, but the at the prices Tamaroc Du Mathan would tempt me in.

2:25 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) – 1m 7 ½ f

The 2018 winner Altior and 2017 winner Politologue both take their place in the line-up and neither need any introduction.  

Rouge Vif romped away with a Cheltenham handicap chase success on his seasonal return. He’s going the right way but the soft ground is a worry.

Greaneteen is another improving chaser who won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his seasonal return. The 6-year-old should improve further with that run under his belt and shouldn’t have any problems with the ground.

Irish raider Castlegrace Paddy has won both his last two starts in Grade 2 company at Navan. Yet to prove he’s a Grade 1 horse but the more testing the ground the better for the 9-year-old who shouldn’t be disgraced.

Verdict: Altior is out due to the testing ground which is a big shame as far as the race is concerned. Like the novice chase it’s probably not really a betting race but It may pay to take a small punt on Castlegrace Paddy with Altior out and possibly Rouge Vif to as his trainer will walk the track before racing.

1pt win – Castlegrace Paddy – 12/1 – Gen

3:00 – Betfair Exchange Back And Lay London National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 5f

Just the seven are set to meet the starter which is a bit disappointing but it’s probably not surprising given it clashes with the Becher Chase at Aintree.

Recent Southern National winner, Cloudy Glen heads the betting. He’s up 11lbfor that Fontwell success but remains the one to beat. Trainer Venetia Williams has her horses in excellent form.  

Classic Ben, a course winner over three miles early last year was a good 2^nd of 18 at Exeter, first time up this season. He races off the same mark as for his last win and although he’s got prove he stays this far he shapes like he should.

Crosspark won the Eider Chase two seasons back and then went onto finish runner-up in the Scottish Grand National. Last season was a wash out, running poorly on both starts. Returned to action with good performances at Chepstow (beaten a nose) and was beaten less than a length here over 3m.  The step up in distance is a big positive for the 10-year-old but the easing of the ground would be a concern.

Shanroe Santos ran a decent race when 3^rd of 7 at Huntingdon first time up, 25-days ago. His jumping was a bit rusty that day and needs to jump better here. Now 7lb below his last winning mark, stays well and goes on soft ground. Would be a good each way play if there were the eight runners.

Verdict: Cloudy Glen is a worthy favourite but at the prices you can let him win.  Classic Ben is solid enough, Crosspark can win off this mark but the ground will be plenty soft enough for the 10-year-old. Shanroe Santos is back down to a winnable mark. He needs to jump better than he did last time but he’s got his ground.  

1pt win – Shanroe Santos – 11/1 @ Paddy Power

3:35 – Betfair Exchange December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 2m

Benson has won his last two starts both at Hereford on good to firm & good to soft. Handicap hurdle debut but looks on fair mark and won’t be far away if handling the more testing ground.

Mister Coffey was an easy winner of a C&D handicap hurdle last month. Up 10lb for that success but is progressive and the right favourite.

Totterdown returns to hurdling after two attempts over fences. Twice a C&D winner, and his form on heavy is 1131.

Jolly’s Cracked might be an 11-year-oldand four of his five career wins have come at Ascot but he’s on a winnable handicap mark. Ran well for a long way on his return to action at Aintree (2m 4f). He goes on the ground, two miles his trip and trainer Harry Fry has booked Kevin Broga to take off another 7lb. Plenty to like about his chance.

Galice Macalo is a highly regarded mare whose won both her starts this season. Handicap hurdle debut off what looks a workable mark. May not be the most straight forward but is clearly talented. Softest ground she’s run on but if she handles it can go well.

Nickolson hasn’t lived up to his trainer’s lofty expectations yet but he remains with some potential and is going handicapping for the first time.

Verdict: Mister Coffey is 10lb higher than when winning over C&D on his seasonal reappearance but that may not stop the progressive 5-year-old who could be graded horse. We may not have seen the best of Nickolson and the yard is better form now. Benson is another capable of going close on his handicap debut and could take advantage if the favourite fails to perform.

1pt win – Benson –  9/1 – Gen

Aintree

1:30 – William Hill Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 2f

Kimberlite Candy and Walk In The Mill are at the front of the betting and you can understand why. The latter bids for a third successive win while the former looked an improved handicap chaser when winning the Classic Chase at Warwick back in January and was a leading fancy for the cancelled Grand National. 

Le Breuil was 7^th in last year’s race but he’s does get a 17lb turnaround in the weights with the winner. His form also ties in with Kimberlite Candy and he now gets 27lb from that one compared with when they met at Warwick. Trainer Ben Pauling said the 8-year-old “wasn’t right last season”. If he’s back to his form of two seasons back he will surely win races off a mark of 141.

Vieux Lion Rouge (16/1) who won this race in 2016 can never be discounted at his preferred course and distance and has each way claims. He’s one of two possible from the David Pipe yard. The other being recent Cheltenham winner Ramses De Teille (8/1). The disappointed in the 2019 National but looks the type for the race.

Smooth Stepper won the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February, off 6lb lower, and advertised his well-being when 5^th of 10 at Sandown last month.

Coo Star Sivola is a bit of a ‘dark’ horse. The 8-year-old was a very progressive handicap chaser two seasons back winning the Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. Last season was a bit of a wash out for him but there were encouraging signs when he finished 5^th of 13 at Bangor on his return to action. If building on that performance he’s on an attractive mark.

Verdict: I could easily go for five or six in the race. Walk In the Mill has a good chance of third successive win in the race. Le Breuil ran well on his seasonal return at Kelso and is back down to a good mark. The price has now gone on Coo Star Sivola who was 16/1 early in the week. Smooth Stepper has each way claims if his jumping holds up. Both Pipe horses Ramses De Teille & Vieux Lion Rouge can go well and Tom Scudamore opts for the former.

1pt each way – Smooth Stepper – 25/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

2:05 – williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) – 2m 1f

Juvenile hurdle races don’t really get my juices flowing. The ex-German trained filly Army Of One makes her stable/hurdle debut for Gavin Cromwell. The Irish trainer is 2-3 +11 3 placed with his runners in the race since 2012.

2:40 – (Mildmay) William Hill Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) – 3m 1f

Just the five go to post but only three are serious contenders. Gold Cup runner-up Santini and last years race winner Native River are at the frontof the betting closely followed by Frodon. The latter has the benefit of race fitness with both Santini & Native River makes their seasonal reappearance. It’s not really a betting race for me but if Native River & Frodon take each other from the front it could set up the race for Santini who needs a strongly run race at this distance.

3:15 – (Grand National) William Hill Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Nineteen have been declared for the second race over the National fences.

There has been plenty of money for the Venetia Williams trained Didero Vallis in the past 24 hours. Soft ground suits and he finished 5^th in this race as 6-year-old. Back over his right trip and looks set for an inform yard.

Huntsmans Son won at Wetherby on his return to action in good style but the soft ground is a concern

Lord Du Mesnil was an improving staying handicap chaser last season. However, his improvement came over 3m+. A good jumper, these fences shouldn’t pose any problems for the 7-year-old but the drop back in trip is a worry.

The Nigel Twiston – Davies pair of Flying Angel & Crievehill are contenders. The later was 4^th in this race last year and is back down to his last winning mark. Crievehill is another on a competitive mark and ran well for a long way on his return in the Old Roan Chase here 41-days ago.

Alan King also saddles a pair in Senior Citizen & Dingo Dollar. The former has just come out of the novice chase company. A winner at Newton Abbot in September. He then just failed to give 10lbs to Espoir De Romay at Huntingdon last time out which looks good form. He’s 2-5 over fences and open to further improvement but does lack experience.  Dingo Dollar a good jumper of a fence on his day has been a bit of a disappointment in the last two seasons but he’s dropped down the weights and the drop in trip could suit.

Might Bite is on the decline but showed plenty of spark at Ascot on his return. He will either really take to these fences or he won’t. If he does, he’s a very well handicapped horse.

Verdict: The price has gone on Didero Vallis. There could still be some juice in Senior Citizen’s price, although he does lack some experience for race like this, and stablemate Dingo Dollar.

1pt win – Senior Citizen – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Dingo Dollar – 12/1 Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A three-day feast of racing with the best races being covered by ITV. What could be better? Well, a few winners but mostly importantly a weekend profit. I have a handful of selections from Sandown & Exeter.

Sandown

3:00 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f

Farrants Way returned from 12 months off the track to win a maiden hurdle at Hereford in March. That was a much-improved effort from the lightly raced 6-year-old. A big chasing type owned by Trevor Hemmings. Interesting to see Venetia Williams has pitched him into a Pertemps Series Qualifier, on just his 5^th career start and seasonal return. Looks a strong stayer, goes well fresh and will like the ground.

Trainer Chris Gordon won this race 12 months ago and he saddles a similar sort here in Straight Swap. The 5-year-old makes his handicap debut after three starts in maiden/novice company. A steady improver on all three of his three starts this autumn. Taking a big step-in distance today but can improve further for it and will like the testing ground.

1pt win – Farrants Way – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Straight Swap – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Exeter

2:40 – tote.co.uk Home Of The Placepot Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 3f

Venetia Williams has her horses in great form and she could have another win here with Quick Wave. The mare was a steady improver at the end of last season winning at Leicester on heavy before putting in a career best effort when 2^nd of 6 here (3m). Now 7lb higher but remains competitive mark and can go close if ready to roll first time.

Three of Molineaux’s four career wins have come at Wincanton but he’s got place form around here. The latest of his wins came in February off 3lb lower. The 9-year-old returned from a 248-day break to be a good 3^rd of 7 to Amoola Gold 34-days ago. Has tended to come on first for the season which is encouraging and the trainer’s runners are in better form now.

1pt win – Quick Wave – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Molineaux – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Close Brothers Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 6 ½ f

This marathon trip will take some getting if the ground is very testing. Twice a C&D winner Dawson’s City. Plenty of encouragement to be taken from his 3^rd of 7 over an inadequate 3m at Uttoxeter last time. The 11-year-old is handicapped to win again, being 11lb below his last winning mark which came over C&D and looks set for a bold show.

Bermeo a winner of a 3m 1f handicap chase at Cheltenham two starts back before putting up a career best effort on RPR’s when runner-up back at the same venue 20-days ago. Up 4lb for his last effort but he’s in good form, has won on soft ground and looks set to appreciate today’s step up in trip. Capable of going close, if replicating his recent form going right-handed.

Last year’s runner-up Petite Power can’t be dismissed nor can the front running Dancing Shadow in what looks a competitive staying handicap chase.

1pt win – Dawson’s City – 15/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Bermeo – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

After a few blank days, a couple of selections from Haydock today.

Haydock

2:20 – Seeyouatmidnight might be a 12-year-old but hasn’t had too much racing for his age. He showed he was still capable of winning races at a good level when winning a veterans handicap chase Carlisle back in February, off 2lb lower. If ready to roll first time he won’t be far away.

The Dutchman won a valuable Peter Marsh Handicap Chase over C&D for Colin Tizzard in January 2018. Now with Tristan Davidson. The 10-year-old shaped with a bit of encouragement over hurdles last month on his first start 931 days.

1pt win – Seeyouatmidnight – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Sky Bet

2:55 – It’s a competitive handicap hurdle and you can make case for half of the field but I’m going with Minella Charmer. Third in this race two years ago, the 9-year-old won here on his seasonal return last December. He goes well on heavy ground with his form figures on the going being 1311.

1pt win – Minella Charmer –7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cloth Cap & Impact Factor did the business for us at Newbury & Fairyhouse respectably. The first time cheekpieces really worked on Cloth Cap who jumped better than he has ever done when making all to win the Ladbroke Trophy.  He got a fine ride from Tom Scudamore. I’m glad I kept the faith in the 8-year-old who always had a decent handicap chase pot in him when he got decent ground.

Meanwhile across the Irish Sea Impact Factor defied 576-day absence to win the big handicap chase at Fairyhouse.  He got into a great jumping rhythm form the off and showed he was on a winnable mark for his handicap chase debut.

I was hopeful that we would have good day and we did. Let’s hope we can end the weekend with another profit.

Fairyhouse takes centre state today. It’s Day 2 of the tracks Winter Festival. There are three Grade 1’s on the eight-race card and a couple of valuable handicaps.

Envoi Allen seems to have scared of most of the competition as he just faces three rivals in the Drinmore Novices’ Chase (1:35). Later, on the card Honeysuckle bids for back to back wins in the Hatton Grace Hurdle (3:35). She will have to be at her best on her seasonal return to win as she faces the likes of Fury Road who was third in the Albert Bartlett and has race fitness on his side after winning a Grade 2 at Punchestown 14-days ago. Add in Ronald Pump & Beacon Edge. The former runner-up in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham and was in the process of running a good race when falling at the last at Navan three weeks ago. Whilst Beacon Edge is improving with racing and has won both his starts this autumn.

It’s the three handicaps on the card that provide the best betting opportunities.

Fairyhouse

12:00 – Bar One Racing Best Odds Guaranteed Irish EBF Mares’ Handicap Chase – 2m 4f

Lunch In Adare won a mares only maiden here 12 months ago. Promise on her three starts over fences this season and was beaten just a head in a Ballinrobe novice chase 43-days ago. Handicap debut here off what looks a competitive mark.

Emily Moon 1-3 over fences, was well beaten in a Grade 2 at Punchestown 15-days ago. Back to 2m 4f should suit and although she needs to jump better, this race is easier than ones she’s been competing in.

Fiveaftermidnight won a novices’ handicap chase at Naas 12 months ago, off 9lb lower. The application of the first time cheekpieces had the desired effect that day. Returned to action with a solid enough effort when 4^th of 14 over hurdles at Limerick last month. The cheekpieces left off that day return and a big run can’t be ruled out, although the yard has gone 91 runners and 84-days since they had a winner which is off putting.

1pt win – Lunch In Adare – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:05 – BARONERACING.COM Porterstown Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 5f

A €73,750 winners prize has attracted a strong field of twenty of staying chasers. Plenty in with a chance as you would expect.

Voix Des Tiep hails form the very much inform Willie Mullins yard. The 8-year-old has only had the five starts over fences and has yet to race to beyond 2m 4f. Takes a big hike in distance here and needs to jump better than he did last season. Not handicapped out of this if his stamina holds.

Gordon Elliott saddles eight. Jack Kennedy is on 2018 Thyestes Chase winner Monbeg Notorious. If the going turns heavy he wouldn’t be without a chance. The best of the Elliott runners could be Cheb De Kerviniou.  The 10-year-old goes well on soft/heavy and there are no issues with stamina for 3m 5f. Ran like the run was needed when down the field in the Troytown Handicap Chase on his return. Handicapped to win a staying chase like this but he’s on a long losing run though.

Noel Meade saddled last year’s winner and won the race in 2009. He runs novice Brace Yourself who won a Beginners’ chase at Gowran Park on his seasonal return. Hasn’t been disgraced on either start since and was a 14-length 3^rd of 7 behind Pencilfulloflead in a Grade 2 at Punchestown two weeks ago. A solid enough jumper, the 7-year-old steps up 1m 1f for handicap chase debut but looks capable of more improvement and is on a workable mark if he stays.

Treacysenniscorthy is second reserve but would be a contender if he gets into the race. Improved to win four handicap hurdles last season, three over 3m.  A useful 4^th of 10 at Listowel back over fences in September. He can race off a 14lb lower mark over the larger obstacles than hurdles and must be respected off his low weight.

Dromore Lad caused a 40/1 shock when winning the Cork National (3m 4f) on just his third start over fences. He’s been raised 10lb for that success but he stays very well and goes well in the mud. You couldn’t rule out further improvement given he remains unexposed over the larger obstacles and must be considered a serious contender again although this a better race.

Verdict: Treacysenniscorthy could take advantage of his light weight if he sneaks in. I think there is more to come from Dromore Lad over these marathon trips but he’s not the biggest to cope with a 10lb rise. Both Brace Yourself and Voix Des Tiep need respecting stepping up in trip with a preference for the former. Cheb De Kerviniou stays all day, is on a winnable mark and wouldn’t be winning one of races out of turn.

1pt each way – Dromore Lad – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Cheb De Kerviniou – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

3:05 – Bar One Racing Extra Places Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) – 2m

I’m doing better over fences than hurdles so far this season but this race has tempted me in.

The overnight betting is headed by Cayd Boy. The five-year-old made a winning return to action when beating 16 rivals in competitive Down Royal handicap hurdle 29-days ago. Up 9lb for that success but he’s only had four starts over hurdles and is capable of more improvement. Connections will be hoping the ground isn’t to testing for this speedy type.

Willie Mullins has three of the 13 runners and all three have chances. Getaway Gorgeous is the choice of Paul Townend she was 5^th in the race won by Cayd Boy but a 9lb pull in the weights should enable her to get closer today as would more testing ground. Hybery finished two places behind his stablemate in that race but ran better than his finishing position suggests. He got hampered at the first that day and did well to get back into the race. Ciel De Neige remains a maiden after eight starts but went close when runner-up in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. Ran to bad to be true when down the field in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham on his last start.  The 5-year-old was a running on 4^th of 15 in this race last year on his seasonal return. Mark Walsh opts for Cayd Boy but I can see him going close if at his best.

Drop The Anchor beat Getaway Gorgeous at Listowel two starts back. The 6-year-old was under pressure but still in with a chance when brought down two out in the Down Royal race. Not without a chance, if none the worse for that mishap, but needs to find s bit more improvement to win this.  

Gold De Bois was 8^th at Down Royal but that was the 6-year-old’s first start since joining Gordon Elliott. Improved to finish 3^rd of 10 at Punchestown two weeks ago. Nudged up 1lb for that effort but it was only his second start in a handicap and he could progress further. Stablemate Eclair De Beaufeu is back over hurdles after falling at the last in a Grade 2 chase at Navan 21-days ago. Did well over fences last season, winning a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown before finishing runner-up in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. Twelve months earlier he had looked the most likely winner of the County Hurdle when coming down at the last off 1lb higher. A winner over C&D the   6-year-old looks well handicapped here on his improved form over the larger obstacles.

Verdict: Cayd Boy’s chance is for all to see. I have a feeling that Ciel De Neige could be a bit of a cliff horse but he will surely pop up in one of these. Hybery ran well enough in the circumstances at Down Royal. Gordon Elliott has a strong hand with the well handicapped Eclair De Beaufeu and unexposed Gold De Bois.

1pt win – Ciel De Neige – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Gold De Bois – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not the best of starts to Newbury’s two-day meeting for me. I’m looking forward to a much better day on Saturday.

ITV are covering six races from Newbury and Newcastle. The feature race at Newbury is the Ladbroke Trophy which is one the best handicap chases of the whole season   

At Newcastle the highlight is the return of Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante in the Grade 1 Betfair Fighting Fifth Hurdle.

The first race that interest’s is at Newbury but isn’t on ITV.

Newbury

1:15 – Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 6 ½ f

Kapcorse won this race on soft ground two years ago off 10lb lower. He only had two starts after that both hurdles winning one of them. Just the three starts over fences so he’s unexposed in the sphere.  First start since a wind-op and has 644-day absence to overcome if he’s to win this race again.

Tom George had a winner here yesterday and he could have another winner here with Doctor Dex. The 7-year-old is having his first start since pulling up at Kempton on soft ground in December. Another one who’s unexposed over fences, just three starts winning on his seasonal return and chase debut last November.  Can go fresh, goes well on the going, and the trainer won this in 2016.

Cap Du Nord finished fifth in the race 12 months ago and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Fine on the ground and shaped with promise when 4^th of 10 at Wincanton three weeks ago on his first run since February.

Court Master has been busier than most this autumn and will be having his fourth start of the season. Looks to have improved over the summer winning at Warwick and finishing runner-up at Market Rasen. Only beaten 2 lengths when 4^th of 11 behind Morning Vicar. Goes well on a sound surface and won around here last season over an extended 2m 7f.

Verdict: Kapcorse and Cap Du Nord will have their supporters butI’m going withCourt Master and Doctor Dex.

1pt win – Doctor Dex – 12/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Court Master – 8/1 @ Bet365

1:50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4f

Tea Clipper made it 4-5 over hurdles when winning the valuable Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow. Up 7lb for that win but the 5-year-old may not have reached his class ceiling just yet. Needs top of the ground and this trip is ideal. Will be tough to beat.

Howling Milan won a good ground novice hurdle here over 2m ½ f back in January 2019. Was in the process of putting up a career best effort, a couple of lengths ahead, and going like the winner when falling at the last over C&D last December. Well beaten on two starts over fences this season and the 6-year-old is more interesting back in a handicap hurdle. Gets the first time cheekpieces and is handicapped to go close.

Verdict: It’s hard to look beyond likely favourite Tea Clipper. However, at the prices Howling Milan looks worth an each-way punt.

1pt each way – Howling Milan – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

2:25 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m ½ f

Marie’s Rock made it 3-3 when winning a Listed Mares Hurdle at Taunton last December. The 5-year-old is having her first since that win and her first since a wind-op. Highly regarded and an entry in today’s Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Remains capable of much better over hurdles and could be a Grade 1 hurdler running in a handicap. Trainer Nicky Henderson won this with Epatante last year and bids for his 4^th win in the race since 2010.

The favourite does face some useful rivals though. Milkwood won at Ffos Las on his seasonal return and put in a career best effort back at the same venue when 4^th of 12 in a competitive Welsh Champion Hurdle. Same mark and should be competitive.

Botox Has bids for the hat trick after two wins at Cheltenham. The last of those wins came on his seasonal return 35-days ago. Handicap hurdle debut here and raised 8lb for his last win.  Won on good ground last time so shouldn’t have problems with the ground.

Thyme White looked a much-improved hurdler when winning at Chepstow last month. The handicapper has raised him 11lb for that success which makes life harder but he’s going the right way and likes good ground.

Sebastopol is another who’s better on a sound surface. Steady improvement on his three starts last season winning at Wincanton & Musselburgh. First run since the latter of those wins in February but has winning form fresh. Another going the right way and should go well but might be better over further than 2m this season and could find one or two more speedy.

Verdict: As with the previous handicap hurdle we have another strong favourite in Marie’s Rock who could prove to be a Grade 1 mare. That said it looks a strong race and at her price I can let her win. Botax Has comes into the race on the back of a Cheltenham win and makes his handicap debut here. Milkwood and Thyme White have recent solid handicap hurdle form. Sebastopol was an improving handicap hurdler last season, goes well fresh and has the ground in his favour.

1pt win – Sebastopol – 11/1 @ Bet365

3:00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 3m 2f

There isn’t a Denman or Bobs Worth in the field but it’s open looking renewal.

Aye Right, third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall Chase has been vying for ante post favouritism with Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase winner and last year’s runner-up The Conditional. A former useful staying handicap hurdler he’s already a better chaser than a hurdler and he jump’s and gallops. Looks on a good mark, just 4lb higher than for his Charlie Hall run.

The Conditional runner-up last year and then improved to win the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival in March. Has been raised 8lb for his Cheltenham win so needs to have improved again over the summer.

Vinndication, trained by Kim Bailey, finished runner up in the Charlie Hall. He’s got a touch of class but it won’t be easy off 11-11 for him. Should stay 3m 2f but maybe prefers more ease in the ground.

Kildisart was runner-up to The Conditional at Cheltenham and is weighted to finish ahead of that one on Saturday. He’s had a good prep over hurdles at Wetherby and will be suited by the going. Closely weighted with the Conditional & Vinndication on their running in the Ultima.

Potterman has been doing well over the summer and was beaten just a short head in a driving finish in the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton. He can race of the same mark here and is 5lb well in. But can he replicate that form on good to soft. All the 7-year-old’s best performances have come on genuinely good ground.

Copperhead has likely been laid out for the race by trainer Colin Tizzard.  Improved to win three of his first four starts over fences including a C&D handicap before going to win the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot. Was strongly fancied for the RSA Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on the back of his Ascot win but was a beaten horse when falling at the last. Pulled up over hurdles at Wetherby on his return to action.

Mister Malarky was a good 6^th in this race 12 months ago. He’s another well suited to decent ground as he showed when winning at Kempton (good to soft) back in February off 3lb lower. Gets the first-time blinkers here and maybe better over 3m.

Secret Investor beat Potterman by 7 lengths at Chepstow on his seasonal return last month. The better the ground the better his chance and his last five form figures on good are 41121. Slight question mark about his stamina for 3m 2f apart from that has a good chance on this going.

Cloth Cap goes well on good ground and lacks little in terms of stamina was an excellent 3^rd of 23 in the 2019 Scottish Grand National on just his fourth start over fences. Wasn’t disgraced on his four starts last season all on soft ground. A good third behind Frodon on good ground at Cheltenham on his seasonal return. The 8-year-old sneaks in at the bottom of the weights and is interesting in the first time cheekpieces.

Verdict: Aye Right looks the most interesting of those at the front head of the market and should be favourite but he’s drifted out to a double figure price. The Conditional will probably prefer softer ground as might Copperhead. Kildisart had a nice prep for this over hurdles and the drying ground has come in time for him. Secret Investor will like the ground and if he stays the 3m 2f has a good chance. Cloth Cap has a decent handicap pot in him and gets the first time cheekpieces.

1pt win – Aye Right – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Cloth Cap – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Just the eight go to post for this handicap chase that concludes the card but it’s still looks a competitive race.

Ibleo trained by Venetia Williams returned from 244-day absence to almost beat the race fit Amoola Gold at Ascot 28-days ago. Up 5lb but has just had the four starts over fences and looks capable of winning a nice pot in the coming weeks. Best form has come on soft or heavy but if he’s as effective on a sound surface is the one to beat.

Moonlighter won over C&D in January and was only beaten a neck by Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his seasonal reappearance. Up 5lb for that effort but it’s arguably the best form on offer. Ground versatile and could be hard to pass if getting an uncontested lead.

Zanza won four over hurdles including two here at today’s distance. Decent efforts in two hot novice chases this season. Handicap chase debut here and should be ok on the ground. Has the size and scope to win races over fences that’s for sure.

The Russian Doyen won a novices’ handicap chase over C&D in January 2019. Lightly raced since finishing 4^th of 20 at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. Travelled well for a long way in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham but made a bad mistake four out which seemed to knock the stuffing out of him and was pulled up before two out. Not ruled out and interesting dropped back in trip in the first-time blinkers.

Verdict: There must be a doubt about Ibleo’s participation on this ground. If he runs, I prefer the claims of previous C&D winner Moonlighter who was an excellent second to Greaneteen. The first-time blinkers could see The Russian Doyen put in a much better performance.

1pt win – Moonlighter – 7/2 @ William Hill

Newcastle

3:15 – Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 7 ½ f

Whatmore travelled like a well handicapped horse when putting up a career best effort to finish runner-up to Regal Encore at Ascot on his seasonal return. Up 4lb and 1-7 over fences but expected to go close on going which he’s won three times on.

Pym made it 3-6 over fenceswhen beating If The Cap Fits at Sandown on his reappearance. That was a welcome return to form after pulling up on his last two starts last season at Ascot and Cheltenham, albeit those runs came in Graded company. Needs to improve on his handicap debut but going & distance fine for the 7-year-old. Might be tough to pass if he gets a uncontested lead. Trainer Nicky Henderson is 1-1 in the race.

Henderson also saddles Brave Eagle. Looked a useful staying handicap chaser two seasons back on good ground. Two poor runs in the Ladbrokes Trophy and at the Festival.  Better could have been expected at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance on quick ground but he never jumped or travelled. Just 1lb above his last winning mark and if the first-time blinkers have the desired effect has a chance.

The Butcher Said has been well backed this week. Won two of his first three starts in novice company on good ground. Didn’t jump as well on soft when 3^rd of 5 behind The Big Breakaway at Cheltenham. Well suited by a sound surface and mark of 139 looks more than workable for his handicap chase debut but he needs to jump better than he did last time.

Cool Mix goes on good ground and looks worth a try at 3m. A winner at Wetherby (2m 4f) two starts back and then third behind Modus at Aintree. Probably remains on competitive mark, if he stays.

Takingrisks won this 12 months ago, off 4lb lower.Needed every yard of the distance to get up home on the line.  It was soft ground last year and he did win the 2019 Scottish Grand National on good ground.  Can’t rule out another win in the race but could find this too sharp a test on good ground these days.

Verdict: Takingrisks won this last year on heavy and although he’s very effective on good ground this looks too sharp a test. The Butcher Said needs to jump better than he did last time but is on a good mark.  Pym and Whatmore head the market and are big contenders with a slight preference for the latter.

1pt win – Whatmore – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Fairyhouse

The first of two good days racing at Fairyhouse and there’s a competitive 2m ½f handicap chase at 12:30.

12:30 – EasyFix Equine Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m ½ f

Kildorrey doesn’t win very often. Looked set for the runner-up spot in this 12 months ago.  Now 2lb lower and a useful 5lb conditional booked. Nice run when 3^rd of 6 in a Grade 2 at Navan 20-days ago.

Gordon Elliott has won this race for the last two years. He saddles three of the 11 runners. The best of his three looks to be Timoteo. Respectable first start for the trainer when 5^th of 13 at Down Royal 29-days ago. Needs to improve on that performance but has only had five starts over fences so more improvement could be forthcoming.

Snugsborough Hall a useful novice chaser two seasons back winning a good handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Just two starts last season and was well fancied (6/1) for a valuable handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. Pulled up and was found to have burst a blood vessel. Nice prep over hurdles for this last month on his return.  Likely on a winnable mark given the market support he received at Leopardstown.

Impact Factor finished runner-up to Snugsborough Hall at Punchestown. A previous C&D winner this is first run for 576-days. Handicapped to finish closer to that one at the revised weights. Can go close if ready to roll first time up.

Paloma Blue comes into the race fitter than most has already three starts since July, winning at Wexford two starts back. Well behind Easy Game & The Storyteller in a Grade 2 at Gowran Park 56-days ago. Drop back to 2m is a positive as would less testing ground. Tends to travel strongly in 2m handicap chases but doesn’t often find much off the bridle. Top weight here but classy at his best and interesting in first-time cheekpieces.

Verdict: Timoteo will prefer the better ground and looks to have a good chance of giving Gordon Elliott a hat trick of wins in the race. Paloma Blue has a touch of class and should run well if the ground isn’t too testing. . Kildorrey doesn’t win very often but can win a race like this. Impact Factor looks on a decent mark, if fit enough first time and looks worth a play.

1pt win – Impact Factor – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Yesterday’s two selections were total hounds and I can’t even blame the fiasco that the chases became due to low sun at Taunton.

Back to top-class action today and the ITV cameras are covering four races from Newbury’s Ladbrokes Winter Carnival. The going is being described as good, good to soft in places.

The feature race is the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (3:00). It’s no exaggeration to say this is like a mini Stayers Hurdle.

All the best British based staying hurdlers are in the lineup including established stayers Paisley Park, Lisnagar Oscar and the upcoming McFabulous and Thyme Hill. Add In recent impressive Cheltenham handicap hurdle winner Honest Vic and you have the makings of a cracker. Besides the feature race there’s a competitive 2m 4f Class 2 handicap chase (2:25) which has attracted a decent sized field of 11 declared runners.

Newbury

2:25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase – 2m 4f

Oldgrangewood won this race in 2017 and last year. The 9-year-old made a solid return to action when 4^th of 12 in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree. He races off a career high mark but won’t be far away.

Clondaw Castle finished runner-up in the Old Roan. Two wins on good or quicker so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any terrors for the 8-year-old. Has improved for the step up to 2m 4f but has been nudged up 2lb so needs to find a bit more improvement here.

Cepage has got top-weight to carry but has a touch of class.  A winner at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, off 1lb lower. He ran well for a long way when 7^th of 24 in the 3m 1f Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival. Only fading after the last when his stamina seemed to run out. First run since March but his form figures when returning from a 180+day break are 1222.

Defi Sacre was an improving handicap chaser last season winning his last three including two here both over 2m. The 7-year-old caught the eye when finishing runner-up on his seasonal return at Aintree 20-days ago. Looks capable of more progress this winter but stamina for 2m 4f is an unknown. as is the going.

San Benedeto won a C&D handicap chase back in March and finished fourth in this 12 months ago. Ran poorly in two starts over the summer and needs the 140-day absence too have freshened him up. Goes very well on a sound surface though and is back down to his last winning mark so can’t be totally dismissed.

1pt win – Cepege – 13/2 @ Bet365

1pt win- Defi Sacre – 10/1 @ Bet365

3:00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m

All eyes on Paisley Park last year’s winner hasn’t been seen since disappointing in the Stayer Hurdle at the Festival. If he’s back to his best he will be tough to beat. It looks a stronger renewal that 12 months ago so he will have to be at his best though.

McFabulous has improved with each of his five starts since going hurdling and made an eye-catching return to action to win the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow last month. Not surprisingly after the race there were comparison’s with Big Bucks who won this race three times. First run at 3m but he shouldn’t lack for stamina.

Another potential improver this season is Thyme Hill. The 6-year-old landed the Grade 2 Challow Novices’ Hurdle here last December. And then finished 4^th of 19 in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. He was only beaten 1 ½ lengths at the finish and indeed could be considered a little unfortunate not to prevail as he got squeezed for room at the last. First run for 259-days but he goes well after a lay off.

Lisnagar Oscar caused a 50/1 shock when winning last season’s Stayers Hurdle. He raced like the run when only 4^th of 8 at Wetherby last month. A bit to prove in what looks a high-class renewal of the race. Good ground not really an issue and we shall find out today if his Cheltenham success  was a fluke or not.

Honest Vic was an impressive winner of competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month. That was his first start over 3m and he certainly improved for the step up in trip. The drying ground has come at the right time for the 7-year-old. This is a big step up in class but gets 6lb from both Paisley Park & Lisnagar Oscar. On Racing Post Rating’s (RPR’s) he’s got a better chance than his odds imply and If he’s going to be contender for the Stayers Hurdle, he’s got to run well here. The 20/1 generally available looks generous to me and I’m hopeful he can get into the places.

1pt win – Paisley Park – 5/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Honest Vic – 12/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m

Hill Sixteen romped home in an 8-runner handicap chase at Ffos Las 9-days ago (heavy). Looks well very handicapped on that run but the going will be completely different today and he looks worth taking on.

Dell’ Arca might be an 11-year-old but he’s started the season in tremendous form winning handicap hurdles at Aintree and over C&D 22-days ago. Goes well on good ground and whilst he’s up 6lb for his last success another win can’t be ruled out. His record at Newbury is a fantastic 3 wins from 7 runs + 16.50 6 placed with form figures 2251131.

Neville’s Cross improved for going handicapping winning on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter and then following up at Hereford off 9lb higher. Never really got competitive from the rear when 6^th of 17 behind Honest Vic at Cheltenham last month. Trainer in better form than he was then and the 5-year-old does tick the all-important going & distance boxes.

1pt win – Dell’ Arca – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Neville’s Cross – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

To get us in the mood for three fantastic days of action at Newbury, Newcastle and Fairyhouse. I have headed to Taunton for a couple of selections.

Taunton

2:11 – Forgetthesmalltalk returned from a 584-day lay off to finish 2^nd of 14 at Kempton 12 months ago before disappointing on next start in February. Lightly raced in recent seasons. The 8-year-old makes a belated debut over fences this afternoon and hopefully make it a winning one.

1pt win – Forgetthesmalltalk – 13/2 @ Bet365

3:11 – One For Dunston – Modest form over hurdles and had no chance (250/1) on his chase debut behind Fiddlerontheroof at Exeter 15-days ago. Handicap debut over fences and needs to improve to defy his mark of 92 but there’s a good chance that 5-year-old can be seen to better effect over the later obstacles. It will be interesting to see if the money comes in for him this afternoon.

1pt win – One For Dunston – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John