Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Amateur’s win in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury meant a profitable Christmas for us. It could have been even better if I had put up Funambule Sivola in the last.

After all the Christmas big race action. Today seems a bit underwhelming. However, we do have a regional National to enjoy at Market Rasen with the latest renewal of the 3m 3 ½ f Lincolnshire National (2:15).

Market Rasen

2:15 – Cool Destination & Terrierman where first and second here over 3m last time. There was just a length between the pair at the line. The runner-up gets 3lb here and that could be enough to see him reverse placings here. The winner was idling a bit after the last so may have been value for more than the bare margin of defeat. That said I think Terrierman could prove the stronger stayer over today’s marathon trip. He’s just had the two starts over fences and is open to further improvement and trainer Dan Skelton has aimed the 6-year-old at this race.

The inform Cyclop bids for the hat trick after wins over fences & hurdles at Chepstow and won’t be far away if in the same form.

Trainer Nick Kent saddled the 2016 winner of the race and has another lively contender in the Who’s In The Box. The 6-year-old has finished runner-up on both on his two starts over fences. He should be suited by today’s stamina test and softer ground won’t inconvenience.  A mark of 109 looks workable and at around 10/1 he looks fair each way value with those bookies paying four places.  

1pt each way – Who’s In The Box – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Terrierman – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Of yesterday’s selections only Handsworth provided a return although both Articulum & Unexpected Depth went close in their respective races.

It’s the last of the Christmas crackers today with the final day of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. There’s also some decent racing at Newbury provided the course passes a morning inspection.  If they do race at Newbury you can settle down to a bumper nine races on ITV.

Leopardstown

It’s fair to say that Willie Mullins has dominated this meeting so far and I expect that to continue today. The two best races on the Leopardstown card are the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novices’ Chase (1:50) & Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle (2:25). And Mullins has got the favourite for both races.

1:50 – Monkfish beat Latest Exhibition a neck in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and made a winning debut over fences Fairyhouse last month. Big step in class here but with a clear round is probably the one to beat. I put up Latest Exhibition in my Daily Punt column as a good each-way bet at 7/1 and I think he can give Monkfish most to do and like the favourite will appreciate the step up to 3m.

1pt win – Latest Exhibition – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

2:25 – It’s a rematch between Morgana first & second Abacadabras & Saint Roi. Hopefully today’s race will be run at a better gallop than it was Punchestown and we can see whether Saint Roi was an unlucky horse or not. Besides Saint Roi, Willie Mullins also saddles Sharjah who bids for a hat trick of wins in the race and Saldier who runs for the first time since winning last year’s Morgana Hurdle. It will be tough to win a race of this quality off such a long layoff but he is 2-2 when returning from a 365+day break. If the eight stand their ground he would lively each way contender.

1pt each way – Saldier – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – A tricky enough novices handicap hurdle. Gabbys Cross bids for a hat trick after wins at Tramore and Punchestown. A mark of 121 looks workable for his handicap hurdle debut and he should go close. Top weight Jacksons Gold made it 2-4 over hurdles when winning a Tramore novice last month. The form of that race looks solid enough, the runner-up has won since. Millen To One was third in that Thurles race and was beaten ½ length in this race last year. He needs respecting with Jack Kennedy in the saddle.

1pt win – Jacksons Gold – 7/1 @ William Hill

Newbury

There’s decent racing at Newbury, if it survives a morning inspection, and some big fields. The feature race of a seven-race card is the Grade 1 MansionBet Challow Novices’ Hurdle (3:15). It’s not a betting race for me, although I hope Star Gate can enhance his Cheltenham Festival claims. It’s three of the handicaps that interest me from a betting perspective.

1:30 – There are four last time out winners in the eight strong field for this novices’ handicap chase. The eye is drawn to overnight favourite Demachine who made it 2-2 over fences with an impressive Ascot win last month. The Nicky Henderson Dickie Diver looks interesting on his chase debut off a mark of 141. The 7-year-old hasn’t been seen in action since finishing 4^th of 20 to Minella Indo in the 2019 Albert Bartlett Hurdle. Despite concerns over the yard’s form, he could be well handicapped horse.

1pt win – Dickie Diver – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – A big field of 14 have been declared for this 3m 2f handicap chase. Amateur is 0-4 over fences but has a couple of pieces of form that would give him a chance here. The 7-year-old finished 2^nd of 12 at Carlisle 58-days ago and is having his first start since a wind-op.

1pt win – Amateur – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – King D’argent made a winning chase debut at Warwick 19-days ago and although he’s been upped 11lb for that success he’s open to more improvement in the sphere and is the one to beat. Funambule Sivola looked much improved for jumping fences when winning at Wetherby (good to soft) on his chase debut two starts back. He probably failed to stay 2m 4f at Sandown last time and will be better suited back down in trip here. Bridle Loanan made it 2-2 in handicap chases when coming from behind to win at Fontwell last time.  He’s up 8lb in better race but testing ground suits the 7-year-old who has each way claims.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A couple of tasty winners on Sunday courtesy of Master McShee & Castlebawn West in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase. Yesterday more than made up for a low-key Boxing Day.

Leopardstown and Limerick take centre stage today. The feature race of seven race card at Leopardstown is a competitive looking Grade 1 Savills Chase (2:25).

Leopardstown

12:40 – Twenty go to post for this Pertemps Series Qualifier.

The market is headed by The Bosses Oscar. Fifth in last year’s Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle the 6-year-old has made a good return to action winning at Thurles and then finishing runner-up in Navan 23-days ago.

Morosini pulled up on his chase debut but was back to form when returned hurdling. Finishing 4^th of 16 at Naas last time. Looks worth another try at 3m.

Unexpected Depth returned from a 431-day break to make it 3-8 over hurdles when winning a 3m handicap hurdle at Punchestown 20-days ago. An 8lb rise in the weights isn’t harsh and he looks the one to be with here.

1pt win – Unexpected Depth – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes

1:50 – Handsworth remains a maiden after nine start over hurdles but put in a career best effort when 2^nd of 10 at Wexford two starts back. And wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 15 at Navan last time over 2m 6f. Drop back to 2m 4f could prove ideal and Jack Kennedy is an eyecatching jockey booking.

1pt each way – Handsworth – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

2:25 – Savills Chase (Grade 1) – 3m

Fourteen go to post for what looks an above average renewal of the race. Except for Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo it’s the best of the Irish three mile division.

Minella Indo, runner-up to Champ in the RSA Novices’s Chase head the market after two wins this season in lesser company. At 9/4 he looks plenty short enough, given he’s not proven in this company.

Delta Work won this 12 months ago and is 3-3 over C&D. He wasn’t seen at his best when only fifth in the Gold Cup and likely needed his Down Royal reappearance. Better expected here and Jack Kennedy stays onboard.

Presenting Percy put in a career best when beating Kemboy & Monalee at Thurles last time. Kemboy who won this in 2018 should get closer given he was giving away race fitness to the winner.

Samcro won the Grade 1 Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenhamin March. He will strip fitter for his Down Royal reappearance third behind Battleoverdoyen. Decent ground will suit the 8-year-old on his first start beyond 2m 5f. Each way claims and 3m could turn out to be his optimum trip.

A Plus Tard beat Chacun Pour Soi in the 2m 1f chase here 12 months ago. Big step up in distance from the minimum trip on his return to action. Doubts about today’s trip remain.

Melon was just a nose behind Samcro at Cheltenham. Third to stablemate Min in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance. Shapes like 3m could be interesting and could get into the money.

Allaho finished third, one place behind Minello Indo in the RSA Novices’ Chase. Ran no sort of race when 6^th of 7 in the John Durkan last time. He’s surely better than bare form and is the choice of Paul Townend.

1pt each way – Samcro – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Limerick

2:45 – Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 3 ½ f

A strong field of 16 are set to go to post for this handicap chase. You can make a strong case for half of the field.

Off You Go has a race in him off his present mark. He’s been doing his racing over fences over shorter is season but he won over this sort of distance over hurdles and looks worth a go. Needs to jump with more fluency than last time though.

Articulum put in an excellent effort when 3^rd of 17 to an improver in a similar race at Navan on his seasonal reappearance earlier in the month. Just one win from 10 starts over fences but the 10-year-old can land a race like this if cutting out the jumping errors (fell in this race 12 months ago when sent off the 5/1 favourite).

Rocky’s Silver best form has come over further, finished runner-up in the 3m 4f Cork National last time.  Two from two at Limerick and goes very well on heavy ground. Not totally dismissed off a light weight for a yard with a good record around here and is 1-2 in the past 14-days.

Westerner Point won this race in 2016 and again in 2018. The 11-year-old is vulnerable to younger legs but he’s 7 wins from 16 runs +26.5 10 placed with heavy in the going description. Given his liking for both C&D and going he’s got to be respected.

Dream Conti probably needs further than an extended 2m 3f but he’s only had three starts over fences and looks capable of more progress in the sphere. Capable conditional takes off a handy 5lb and the 7-year-old looks feasibly weighted.

Elwood was a steady improver over fences last season. Not in the same form so far this season and unseated his rider at Navan last time. Stays 3m so no issues on the stamina front.

Burning Ambition very useful in Hunter Chases, finished runner-up in the Aintree Foxhunters in April 2019. This looks the 9-year-old’s ideal trip and he gets the first-time blinkers today. Each way claims off a competitive mark if the headgear has the desired effect.

The Long Mile has improved for going handicap chasing with form figures of 111F. Two of those wins came with heavy in the going description so issues with underfoot conditions. Fell in hot handicap chase at Punchestown on his return to action which isn’t the ideal preparation and does need to improve to win this.  

The Goose Man was an improving handicap chaser when last seen in action two seasons back. First start for 556-days and may not want the ground as testing as it’s likely to be.

1pt win – Articulum – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Rocky’s Silver – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not the most auspicious of starts to the festive period but as the saying goes its marathon not a sprint.

Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National Meeting has been abandoned due to waterlogging which is a blow as i had a few selections for there. And now Wetherby has to survive a morning inspection.

Kempton

3:05 – Erik Le Rouge’s form figures at Kempton are 1114. Really soft ground and stamina 3m are bit of unknown but he’s had a wind-op since falling in the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton last time which could help him stay the distance. Can’t be discounted at track he goes well at.

The Kings Writ jumped well out in front and only found one to go when runner-up at Wincanton in January off today’s mark. Had a spin over hurdles on his first run since a wind-op when 3^rd of 12 at Chepstow 22-days and should be spot on fitness wise today. His prominent style of running should see him go well here.

The form of Cape Du Nord’s Newbury win over Canelo has been boosted with that one going onto win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby yesterday. Up 10lb for that decisive win but capable of better and interestingly get’s the first time cheekpieces today. Not sure hold up tactics will be seen to best effect.

Royale Pagaille made a winning return to action when winning a Haydock novice chase (heavy) 25-days ago. Goes handicapping for the first time over 3m off what looks a competitive mark and shaped last time like he needed further than 2m 5 ½.

Given the present form of the Emma Lavelle stable it would be unwise to rule out Manofthemountain bouncing back from a poor run at Cheltenham back in October. Likely his chance depends on the ground staying good to soft rather than easing further.

1pt each way – The Kings Writ – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Erick Le Rouge – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places ¼ odds)

3:40 – Useful novice hurdler Hang In There shaped much better for a return to prominent riding tactics when 6^th of 12 at Newbury last time. He probably didn’t stay 2m 4 ½ f that day and the return to 2m here should suit better.

Magic Dancer is on a losing run that goes back to April 2018 but is handicapped to go close on the best of last years form.

Torigni is a bit of an unknown quantity. A winner in France in June 2019. Returned from a 515-day break to finish a promising 3^rd of 9 to subsequent Haydock winner Albert’s Back 43-days ago. Won’t be easy for a 4-year-old but he looks on a competitive enough mark if building on his Wetherby performance.

1pt win – Hang In There – 4/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Torigni – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Leopardstown

2:20 – Master McShee has the potential to be well handicapped off a mark of 132 for his handicap hurdle debut. Ran out an impressive winner of a Cork maiden hurdle last time had previously run the highly regarded Appreciate It to 2 ½ lengths on his hurdle debut at the same venue.  That one runs in the in the Grade 1 novice hurdle (1:45). If it wasn’t for an unfashionable trainer/jockey Master McShee would likely be half the odds he is.

You Raised Me Up got his head in front at the fifth time of asking over hurdle when making a winning return to action in a Listowel maiden hurdle 95-days ago. The 7-year-old was a good 3^rd of 22 over C&D on his only start in a handicap in February.

The Moyglass Flyer hasn’t been seen since winning this race 12 months ago off 9lb lower. Both he and stablemate Winner Takes Itall give owner J P McManus a strong hand in the race.

Another McManus runner who could go well at a price is Spruced Up. The mare probably needed her Navan return 49-days ago and is competitively handicapped on her best form of last season when winning a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle and finishing 4^th of 27 here in February. Can’t be totally discounted with a useful conditional taking off a handy 7lb.

1pt win – Mister McShee – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Coral

1pt win – You Raised Me Up – 10/1 @ Bet365

2:55 – Apart from The Welsh Grand Nationa,l the Paddy Power Handicap Chase is the big betting race of the day.

Ten Ten a lightly raced 7-year-old, just the five starts over fences had a nice prep for this over hurdle’s last time and on his first start beyond 2m 4f looks open to improvement. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb and he should give his backers a good run for their money.

Top weight Castlebawn West must be respected. He’s ground versatile and was staying on well into third, over 2m 3 ½ f in a valuable handicap chase at Punchestown last month. Will be sharper for that run and is high on the shortlist.

Captain CJ finished 3^rd of 20 to Court Maid over 3m 5f last time. He’s got a decent handicap pot in him but probably needs the ground to ease considerably if he’s to win over 3m.

Interesting that Jack Kennedy has opted for Farclas who returned from a 522-day absence to finish two places behind Castlebawn West in the Punchestown race. Will be all the better for that run and if he stays 3m won’t be far away.

1pt each way – Castlebawn West – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Ten Ten – 12/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Wetherby

2:10 – Marracudja was beaten a nose in this race two years ago and went one better 12 months ago, off 3lb lower. The 9-year-old hasn’t been at the level of form in four starts this season but ran better at Newbury last time. This year’s renewal looks tougher but he can run a big race.

Nuts Well has really improved this year winning at Kelso on his seasonal return before putting in a career best when winning the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time. Up 4lb demands more from the top-weight but he’s won twice around here and despite the drop back to 1m 7f can’t be ruled out.

First Flow made it 5-9 over fences when beating Amoola Gold at Ascot on is seasonal reappearance. The more testing the ground the better he is and now the going has turned heavy looks the one to beat although he needs jump better than he did at Ascot.

Some Reign was beaten a short head over C&D last time. He’s in the form of his life but this is a much hotter race.

1pt win – Marracudja – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I wasn’t able to post up any ante post selections on Wednesday so decided to wait until today.

There’s some interesting racing at Kempton but I will be keeping my powder fairly dry on Boxing Day, as there will be plenty more betting opportunities over the week.

The ITV cameras are covering five races on Boxing Day. Four from Kempton and one from Wetherby. On Sunday and Monday, they will be broadcasting a bumper sixteen races over the two days.  

Looks a mainly dry Boxing Day so the ground isn’t likely to be testing at Kempton. Storm Bella is incoming, with perhaps 10 to 15 mm rain expected overnight which is likely to make the going more testing on Sunday. Let’s hope the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow will survive the deluge as the going is already described as heavy at the Welsh track. If they do race it will be attritional that’s for sure. Anyway, back to today

Kempton

1:15 – I like the claims of Hold The Note here. The 6-year-old was quickly pulled up in this race 12 months ago after being badly hampered at the 10th. He then went onto run Two For Gold to ½ length in Grade 2 at Warwick and was a good third behind Imperial Aura at the Cheltenham Festival. Granted he hasn’t been anywhere near that form on his three starts this season but he’s dropped back down to a competitive mark if he can bounce back to last season’s best. Trainer Mick Channon won this race with Glen Forza in 2018 and saddled the runner-up in 2017.

1pt win – Hold The Note – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:00 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase – 3m

Clan Des Obeaux bids for hat trick King George wins and looks likely to go off favourite. A good second in the Betfair Chase on his seasonal reappearance. Provided a tough race at Haydock hasn’t left his mark he’s the one to beat.

Cyrname last year’s beaten favourite, has 21 lengths to find with his stablemate. I don’t think he was right 12 months ago and probably proved his stamina for 3m when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He’s been given a 56-day break to freshen him up and I think he win this.

You can’t dismiss the claims of Lostintranslation. He pulled up in this 12 months ago and didn’t enjoy the heavy ground in the Betfair Chase last month. Better ground will suit the 8-year-old and his third placed effort in the Gold Cup is as good a form as there is here.

Santini made an underwhelming seasonal return at Aintree three weeks ago. Trainer Nicky Henderson supplemented him for the race on Monday. Not sure that 3m around here will play to his strengths though.

Saint Calvados has an each-way chance. He’s been doing most of his racing at 2m but improved when stepped up to 2m 4f on his last two starts of last season, on the final occasion finishing runner-up in the Ryanair a length down to Min. Three miles could be in his stamina range but this is his first start since March.

Waiting Patiently is another with place claims. The 9-year-old is having his first start since a strong finishing third in last season’s Tingle Creek Chase. That was over 2m but he stays 2m 4f well and could stay 3m. Was still going well when unseating his rider in this race 2-years ago and softer ground won’t inconvenience.

Verdict:

I think Cyrname can beat stablemate Clan Des Obeaux. On good to soft Lostintranslation could easily bounce back and win this and for those looking for one each way Waiting Patiently should give you a good run for your money provided the ground is soft enough.

2pt win – Cyrname – 11/4 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Barbados Blue returns from 593-day break in this 2m 5f handicap hurdle. The mare won on a bumper on her racecourse debut so she’s capable of going well fresh. Beat just two rivals when winning a maiden hurdle over C&D in May 2019. Both wins have come on good ground so soft ground will be a bit of an unknown but I think she’s on a competitive mark.

Distingo ran poorly last season but is a well handclapped horse on his best form two seasons back. Ran with encouragement when 4^th of 11 here over 3m last month. This intermediate trip could be ideal and any drying ground will also suit.

1pt win – Barbados Blue – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Wetherby

The best race on the Wetherby card is the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (2:05). It’s also the best handicap either side of the Irish Sea on Boxing Day.

2:05 – The likes of Canelo, Spiritofthegames, Springtown Lake & Windsor Avenue all have good chances if they stay. However, on soft ground it could pay to go with one of proven stayers in the none strong field.

Wandrin Star bounced back to form on his first start after a wind-op when beaten a head by Quarenta at Ascot last month. He’s up 4lb and in higher grade but remains on a competitive mark. The 9-year-old has tended to go well fresh in the past but hopefully a 36-day break will be sufficient break.

Snow Leopardess finished runner-up to Shan Blue here on her second start over fences before going onto win a soft ground Class 2 handicap at Haydock 35-days ago. The mare stays well and is very effective on soft ground. Up 9lb for that Haydock success but she’s capable of more improvement.

1pt win – Snow Leopardess – 4/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Jukebox Jive 11/1 (BOG) was a decisive winnerof the valuable handicap hurdle at Navan to provide a good profit on the day and a good start to the weekend.

Ascot & Haydock are my focus this Saturday. The race of the day is Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle (2:25) at Ascot. Which sees a rematch between Thyme Hill & Paisley Park who finished first and second at Newbury three weeks ago. Add in the improving Main Fact & Roksana who bounced back to her best when making a winning return in a Grade 2 at Wetherby and you have the makings of a pre-Christmas cracker of a race. Not a race I will be having a bet in though.

The feature race of a seven-race card at Haydock is the Class 2 Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (2:40).

I’ve already advised four selections ante post for the two big handicaps at Ascot and they all run which is a good start.

Ascot

1:50 – Benny’s King was beaten just a neck over C&D in January. Satisfactory return when 5^th of 8 at Aintree (4/1 joint favourite) 42-days ago. Just 2lb higher than in January, his stamina should come into play on the testing ground and looks the one to go with.

Smarty Wild is one of the least experienced in the field having had just two starts over fences. Found things happening to quick on the drop back to the minimum trip at Wetherby last time. The step back in distance will suit and his jumping will hopefully improve for it too, as it needs to if he’s to win.

Early Du Lemo returned from a mammoth 689-days lay off when beaten just a neck by a stablemate at Sandown 15-days ago. Stamina a slightly doubt on this ground, as is the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ coming into play but if not, he’s got to be considered a contender. Stablemate Not Another Muddle is another in the mix and is on a winnable mark. He’s only had one run, at the Cheltenham Festival, since April 2019 but he’s gone well fresh in the past and all his four career wins have come on soft ground, yet to race on heavy.

1pt win – Benny’s King – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Not Another Muddle – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Now the two races where I have already put-up selections. There are no further selections for the Silver Cup (3:00). However, I have a couple that interest me in the Betfair Exchange Trophy (3:35).

3:35 – I have already put-up Oakley and Lightly Squeeze each way and I’m still happy with both. Since the final entries were announced there’s a couple to catch the eye.

I was hoping Arrivederci would go for a lesser race at Haydock where he would have likely gone off favourite. However, it’s interesting that Jonjo O’Neill opts for this better race.  A winner at Wincanton in January and on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby. Sent off the 4/1 for a race at Haydock last time and was still going well when coming down three out. The 5-year-old gets the first-time tongue tie. I tipped him at Haydock and I can’t let him go unbacked here.

There’s a thought that Irish horses are better handicapped than their UK counterpoints as evidenced by Chatham Street Lad’s win in the Caspian Gold Cup last Saturday. Thus, you can’t rule out the Peter Fahey trained Belfast Banter. A winner of a soft ground maiden hurdle at Galway in October. He improved on that effort when finishing runner-up, a Punchestown novice hurdle 35-days ago.  Handicap debut off 129 looks interesting and he could go well.

1pt win – Arrivederci – 15/2 @ Bet365

Haydock

It’s going to be survival of the fittest at Haydock on what looks like will be almost unraceable ground.

2:05 – Albert’s Back a winner at Wetherby on his seasonal return 35-days ago. The 6-year-old is up 5lb for that win which doesn’t look harsh of more concern would be the step up to 2m 3f on testing ground.

Mcgowans Pass has finished runner-up on his last three starts since winning over two mile at Ayr (heavy) in January. Put up a career best effort on RPR’s when beaten a short head back at Ayr on his return to action. Nudged up 3lb but will love the testing ground although 2m 3f might stretch his stamina.

1pt win – Mcgowans Pass – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – Hill Sixteen bolted up over fences at Ffos Las (Heavy)two starts back and followed up over hurdles at Newbury (good) 22-days ago. Up 12lb for his Ffos Las win and must be respected on the hat trick bid.

Salty Boy twice a winner over hurdles when trained in Ireland. Has yet to win on eight starts over fences but shaped with promise when a staying on 4^th of 7 at Sandown on his stable debut in November. Not as good at Ascot last time when his jumping lacked fluency. Get’s the first time cheekpieces which should help his jumping. Three miles on heavy ground would be a bit of an unknown but he looks like he can win a race of his present mark.

Lord Napier a four-time winner over hurdles including a valuable soft ground 3m handicap hurdle at Sandown in March 2019. Shaped better on his second start over fences at Aintree than he had done on his first and built on that promise when runner-up at Chepstow two weeks ago. It was heavy that day so he shouldn’t have any problems with going and was a strong stayer over hurdles. Looks on a workable mark over fences but given his inexperience over the larger obstacles his jumping will be tested.

1pt win – Lord Napier – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The going is soft, soft to heavy in places at Ascot for the start of its two-day December meeting. More rain is forecast so it could well end up being heavy on Saturday. Let’s hope they don’t get to much of the wet stuff because there may not be any jumps action. The going at Haydock is already heavy and with plenty more rain forecast. There must be a real danger that there won’t be any racing at the Merseyside track on Saturday.

Sorry to start off on such a pessimistic note.

Let’s get down today’s main action which revolves around Ascot and interesting card at Navan. ITV are covering four races from Ascot and one from Navan this afternoon to cheer up racing fans.

Ascot

12:45 – Steal A March was an eyecatcher when staying on well to finish 3^rd of 17 at Cheltenham 35-days ago. A winner of a novice hurdle at Hereford on heavy 12 months ago the ground will be ideal for the 5-year-old but I wonder if he might need further than 2m 5f ½ f.

Shang Tang won a soft ground novice hurdle over C&D 27-days ago. Looks competitive on his second start in a handicap and can go close.

Dhowin returned from a 313-day break to finish a respectable 6^th of 13 at Wincanton 29-days ago. That was the 6-year-old’s first start since joining new trainer Warren Greatrex and given he prefers soft ground and the stable was going through a quiet spell, it was decent run.

Chazza hails from the inform Kim Bailey yard. A heavy ground winner of a bumper on his racecourse debut last November. The 6-year-old won a Bangor maiden (good to soft) in September before posting an excellent effort when runner-up to subsequent Cheltenham winner Breffiniboy at Leicester last month.  Takes a big step up in trip but if he stays has a good chance.

1pt win – Chazza – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Shang Tang – 8/1 @ Bet365

1:55 – The one that I liked in the novices’ handicap chase Numitor is he’s now a non-runner.

Useful handicaps hurdler Mack The Man is the right favourite and should have come on plenty for his first start over fences last month. A winner on heavy over hurdles. He’s got his ground/distance today and mark of 130 looks workable,

Flegmatik made a successful start to his chasing career when winning at Carlisle (good) two starts back. He was then hampered twice by fallers when only 5^th of 7 at Sandown last time. He’s better than he was able to show at Sandown. Now 4lb higher than at Carlisle but could be capable of defying his rise in the weights.

1pt win – Flegmatik – 9/2 – Gen

3:05 – An interesting Grade 2 novices’ chase. Nicky Henderson throws Allart into the deep end for his chase debut. A good fifth behind stablemate Shishkin in the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival. This is first start since March but he could turn out to be high class over the larger obstacles.

Fiddlerontheroof has already had three starts over fences and posted a career best effort when runner-up to the useful Caribean Boy in a Grade 2 at Newbury three weeks ago. Today’s ground is more in his favour but the form of the Colin Tizzard yard remains a big concern.

Navan

1:35 – Five last time out winners among the seven runners in this Grade 2 novices’ hurdle. Overnight favourite Holymacapony impressed when winning on his hurdle debut at Punchestown 34-days ago and looks a very useful prospect.  

At the prices it may pay to take a chance on the Gavin Cromwell trained Gabynako. The 5-year-old finished runner-up to two of today’s rivals (Eskylane & Fakiera) on his first two starts over hurdles before following up with a good win at Naas 27-days ago. That success came over 2m and he should be even better over today’s 2m 4f trip.

1pt win – Gabynako – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:10 – Thereisnodoubt won a 2m handicap hurdle here in March on his first start 318-day so fitness shouldn’t be an issue on his seasonal return. Goes well on soft/heavy ground and has won over 2m 4f. Up 9lb for his last win demands a bit more improvement from the 7-year-old but he’s a definite contender. Jukebox Jive is potentially well handicapped over hurdles compared to his best flat form. Hasn’t looked the most natural over hurdles but ran well enough to finish 5^th of 13 at Cork last month. That was his first run over hurdles for 11 months so he’s entitled to be sharper today. Can win a race like this when everything clicks.

1pt win – Jukebox Jive – 9/1 @ Bet365

2:45 – Boghlone Honey showed some ability on her first three starts in maiden hurdle company and the mare shaped well when 3^rd off 11 on her handicap hurdle debut at Sligo 56-days ago. Less miles on the clock than most of these, she’s open to further progress over this trip and if can build on last times promise, won’t be far away here.

1pt win – Boghlone Honey – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been very quiet week on the betting front as I had expected. Today I’m back with my weekly ante post angle.  This week I have a couple of selections in the upcoming Welsh Grand National and I also add to the Cheltenham Festival ante post portfolio with a selection for the Pertemps Series Final.

Before getting to those. I have a few of ante post selections for the two big handicaps at Ascot on Saturday.

Plenty to get through and let’s begin by looking at Saturday’s action.

N.B. All the bets will be 2pts win or 1pt each way.

Ascot – Saturday December 19^th

3:00 – Ascot Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m

Normally a decent handicap chase. I was hoping that the Philip Hobbs trained Jerrysback would make his seasonal return in a race where he finished third 12 months ago. Sadly, he was taken out at the five-day stage.

The Conditional (4/1) heads the ante post betting after his recent third in the Ladbroke Trophy. No issues with the ground for the 8-year-old and he looks the right favourite. However, at the prices the two that I like are:

Ardlethen was a well beaten sixth in the Ladbroke Trophy last time. However, he ran better than his final position suggests. He had travelled well for most of the race and only weakened two out. He’s got 11 lengths to find with The Conditional on that running. The drop back to 3m will suit and he’s got each way claims.

Enfant Roi is an intriguing runner, off a light weight. The 6-year-old has been doing all his racing in France and hasn’t been out of the first two on either start over fences. Hard to evaluate his form but he hails from a shrewd yard and will enjoy the testing ground. At around 25/1 he looks worth an each way play.

1pt each way – Ardlethen – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – Enfant Roi – 33/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

3:35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy (A Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f

The big betting race of the weekend.

Buzz looked good when winning over C&D last month and he’s the right favourite.  He’s been hiked up 11lb for that success which makes life tougher but could be graded horse in the making. Henderson could also run handicap debutante Time Flies By. The 5-year-old was runner up here over 2m 3 ½ f, 29-days ago. He was a bit keen that day so the drop back in trip will be in his favour.

Night Edition could makea belated seasonal reappearance here. The 4-year-old finished 2^nd of 22 in the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Up 2lb for that effort so he needs to have improved to defy his new mark but given he’s only had four starts over hurdles it’s highly likely he can.

Malaya. A previous C&D winner, the mare caught the eye when 2nd of 8 to Kid Commando over C&D 49-days ago. If she can build on her seasonal return then she would have good each way claims here although she’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field.

Lightly Squeeze is one I have had my eye on for a race like this. The 6-year-old won three times (soft & heavy) last season and was in front when falling at the last in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. He was well behind Buzz in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time but that was run on good to soft and he will be more suited Saturday’s underfoot conditions. Has had a wind-up since that Chepstow run.  Trainer Harry Fry won this race in 2015 and he’s had this race in mind for the gelding.

Oakley didn’t win last season but placed three times, including over C&D last November, and ran credibly in the Belfair Hurdle and County Hurdle. Ran respectably when 3^rd of 11 at Wetherby on his seasonal return.  Trainer Philip Hobbs’ Sternrubin dead heated in the 2015 renewal and the 7-year-old is lively contender.

2pts win – Lightly Squeeze – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt each way – Oakley – 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Welsh Grand National – Chepstow

It was the Welsh Grand National Trial here earlier in the month can provide a few clues for this race Secret Reprieve made it 2-2 at the course with a comfortable success. Given his liking for the course the 6-year-old will have a great chance with just a 4lb penalty to carry for latest win. At around 5/1 he doesn’t appeal as bet at this stage.

Bobo Mac was a never nearer third in the Grand National Trial. He was given a patient hold up ride and shaped with encouragement on his first start for 263-days. He will be sharper for the run and the wind-op seems to have done the trick. Better can be expected from the 9-year-old and he can win a race off his present mark.

The Hollow Ginge goes well on soft ground and looks a strong stayer. He shaped with promise when a staying 4^th of 18 in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newmarket. The drying ground would have been against him that day so in the circumstances it was a good effort. Like Bobo Mac, he’s got a good chance of getting into the money.   

1pt each way – Bobo Mac – 25/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt each way – The Hollow Ginge – 33/1 @ William Hill & Sky Bet (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selections:

Pertemps Series Final

I don’t normally have a punt in Cheltenham Festival handicap race at this stage in the season. However, I’m going to make an exception with Column Of Fire. The 6-year-old a winner of a maiden hurdle at Punchestown in January. Followed up that effort with an even better performance when 3^rd of 28 on his handicap hurdle debut at Leopardstown. He was about to challenge the leader when falling at the last in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. But for that mishap he would have placed at worst. He proved he stayed 3m at Leopardstown so the Pertemps would look an ideal race. Now we haven’t seen him out this season so he has yet to qualifier for the final. Trainer Gordon Elliott knows what sort of horse is needed to win the race as he trained the winner for the past three seasons. Can Column Of Fire make it four? I think he can.

1pt each way – Column Of Fire – 20/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill (both paying 4 places ¼ odds)

There are no selections on Thursday but I will be back on Friday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Due to time, it’s a shortened preview today.

Cheltenham

1:15 – Spreadex Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

The strong travelling Sky Pirate is interesting dropped back to the minimum trip with Tom Scudamore, who combined with trainer Jonjo O’Neill to win the Ladbroke Trophy, in the saddle. He’s got a nice light weight and although he remains a maiden after tens runs over fences, he’s got the talent to win a handicap chase like this. Trainer is 2-3 with his runners in the past 8-years.

Ibleo made an excellent return to action when running Amoola Gold to a short head at Ascot 42-days ago. Up 5lb, but easing ground has come in his favour. He’s only had the four starts over fences and it’s not difficult to think he can improve further to defy his new mark.

Forest Bihan was 4^th of 19 in the 2019 Grand Annual over C&D. He fell at the 4^th over hurdles at Haydock last time on his first start since winning the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last October. Not without an each-way chance if anywhere near to his best.

1pt win – Sky Pirate – 100/30 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:50 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Al Dancer finished 3^rd of 16 to Coole Cody in the Paddy Power. I think he can turn the tables on the winner here at the revised weights and on the stiffer new course.

Top-weight Master Tommytucker is getting better and better with racing and last time out beat five rivals in a graduation chase at Haydock which has been one in the past by stablemates Clan Des Obeaux and Politologue. Harry Cobden opts for him rather than stablemate Saint Sonnet. The latter isn’t totally out of it either. Granted he disappointed in the Paddy Power, was beaten when falling three out, but it’s possible he needed the run that day

The North has a big player in the Brian Ellison trained Windsor Avenue. The 8-year-old showed his well-being when finishing runner-up to Imperial Aura in last month’s Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle. That was his first start since a wind-op. Any rain would be welcomed and I can see him going well on his handicap chase debut.

Midnight Shadow took advantage of Champ falling two out to win the Grade 2 Dipper Chase over C&D in January and disgraced when 6th of 12 back here in the Marsh Chase at the Festival. The Sue Smith stable was struggling for winners when he ran poorly in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on his seasonal return.  He’s surely better than he was able to show last time and would have each way claims if back to his best.

Irish Raider Chatham Hill Lad would be another with each way claims should trainer Michael Winters bring over the 8-year-old for the race. He’s an improving handicap chaser who won’t mind the forecast rain.

Verdict: One of those races where it’s probably worth going with two or there against the field. My choices are Al Dancer and Windsor Avenue and I wouldn’t be shocked if Saint Sonnet if ran much better than he did here in the Paddy Power.

1pt win – Al Dancer – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Windsor Avenue – 8/1 @ Bet365

3:00 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) – 2m 1f

If there’s a Champion Hurdle contender in the field it’s Goshen.  He needs to win this though and win it well. 

Song For Someone could well get an uncontested lead here and he’s proven over further. An improver he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip.

Ballyandy normally runs well at Cheltenham, twice a winner, and was beaten a neck in this 12 months ago. The 9-year-old has finished runner-up under big weights in two handicaps this season here and at Ffos Las. The soft ground has come at the right time and he’s got a solid each-way chance.

1pt each way – Ballyandy – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

3:15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Boldmere needed the run when fourth on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow but was slightly disappointing 9/2 favourite when only 4^th of 13 at Bangor last time. The ground was very soft that day and both last season’s chase wins, including C&D, came on good to soft so today’s going should be ideal for the 7-year-old.

Jersey Bean is improving with each start over fences and is seeking the hat trick after wins at Newton Abbot & Exeter. Up 10lb for the last of those wins in a better race but capable of going close.

Give Me A Copper goes well fresh he she showed when winning the Badger Beers Trophy at Wincanton (good to soft) last October, off 4lb lower. Poor run at Ascot in December but that was on heavy ground. Won’t be far away if at his best.

Manofthemountain won four of his five starts over fences. Beaten 4/1 favourite when 4^th of 10 at Cheltenham 49-days ago. Maybe it was the step up into Class 2 company that did for the 7-year-old that day or maybe he didn’t like Cheltenham. If it’s the latter he’s a player here.

1pt win – Manofthemountain – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Fairyhouse

2:12 – Sizing Pottsie ran Felix Desjy to 1 ¾ lengths in a Grade 2 at Punchestown last month. Two mile and soft ground are his optimum trip. Handicap debut and with a bit more improvement is the one they all must beat.

1pt win – Sizing Pottsie – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day 1 of Cheltenham’s International Meeting and the first-time paying spectators have been at the racecourse since March.

It’s an eight race with the addition of the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase (1:50) which was due to be run at Huntingdon last Sunday.  The ITV cameras are broadcasting five races from Cheltenham and one Bangor.

My first selection runs in one of the races which isn’t being covered by ITV.

Cheltenham

12:40 – Catesby Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 1f

Martin Keighley saddled the 2015 winner and he has a big contender here in Sarasota Star. The 4-year-old bids for the hat trick after wins at Carlisle. Can race off the same mark as the last of those wins and is 5lb well in here.

Tegerek was 3^rd of 14 in the Greatwood Hurdle at the last meeting, had previously won on the old course. Not the most straight forward and can be reluctant at the start but the 6-year-old has plenty of ability and remains progressive.

Lively Citizen showed a good battling attitude to win a handicap hurdle here at the last meeting.  Up 4lb but is going the right way and shouldn’t be far away again.

Benny’s Bridge won over C&D last October, off 6lb lower. Off for 11 months before finishing a promising 6^th of 17 in the race he had won 12 months earlier. Has a bit to find with Tegerek on that form but gets a handy pull in the weights and was hampered two out by a faller that day.

Haafapiece won twice last season and has continued in form on both starts this season at Wetherby. The 7-year-old wasn’t beaten far when 2^nd of 9 last month and can race off the same mark here. Could get into the money if at his best.

Nelson’s River last win came at this meeting in 2018 and he finished 4^th in that seasons Triumph Hurdle. Found live tougher last season but wasn’t beaten far when 9^th of 24 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. A decent 4^th behind Buzz on his first start back over hurdles last month. Suited by good ground and is another with place claims.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance, Course & distance winner Benny’s Bridge needs respecting as does Lively Citizen but the vote goes to hat trick seeking Sarasota Star.  

1pt win – Sarasota Star – 8/1 @ Bet365

1:15 – CF Roberts Electrical & Mechanical Services Mares’ Handicap Chase (Challenger Mares’ Series Qual’) (Class 3) – 2m 4 ½ f

Arian, Nikap and Martila were first, second and third respectablyin mares handicap chase at Warwick 23-days ago. The winner is up 7lb for that success but she’s going the right way and may not have reached her class ceiling yet.  At the revised weights both Nikap and Martila have a got chance of finishing ahead of Arian here. Nikap was only having her second start over fences at Warwick and can win races off her present mark as should Martila. Slight preference for Nikap who won’t be inconvenienced should the ground ease further.

Verdict: There could be more to come from Arian but at the prices I just prefer the claims of Nikap.

1pt win – Nikap – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

1:50 – Fitzdares Club Loves The Peterborough Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f

Eight have been declared for what is now the race of the day. The bookies go 9/2 the field which shows this year’s renewal is a competitive one.

Nicky Henderson has trained the winner four times since 2013. He saddles Top Notch, who win this last year and in 2017. He’s had wind surgery since his last run in January and should be primed for a big run given his record in the race.

The other Henderson runner is Mister Fisher. The 6-year-old put in a career best when 4^th of 12 in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at the Festival but was pulled up in the Paddy Power here on his seasonal return last month. Better ground will suit, as should today’s smaller field and he’s a danger to all if bouncing back to his best.

Fanion D’estruval so impressive when winning on UK/stable debut last November before a disappointing beaten favourite (6/4) in a Grade 2 at Kempton a month later. Returned to action for the first time in 322-days when 2^nd of 9 in a Class 2 handicap here last month. First run beyond 2m 2f for the 5-year-old but if he stays must have a good chance of going one better here. Another who won’t be inconvenienced should the ground ease further.

Verdict: Better expected is from Mister Fisher on a sounder surface. Stablemate Top Notch has a good record in the race and can’t be ruled out. Fanion D’estruval made a good return to action here at the last meeting and is the choice.

1pt win – Fanion D’estruval – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:25 – Unibet Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 2f

A shade disappointing that the race has only attracted seven runners. Irish raider Court Maid improved for the step up to 3m 5f when bolting up in a valuable handicap chase at Fairyhouse 12-days ago. Up 8lb for that win but the mare looks capable of defying her rise in the weights if this race doesn’t come too quick. The one they all must beat.

Top-weight Black Corton is a classy chaserat his best and is two from three at Cheltenham. Normally a solid jumper there was a rare lapse on that front when unseating his rider at Ascot in a Grade 2 won by Imperial Aura. A contender for sure but probably needs the first time cheekpieces to eke out   the improvement needed to defy a mark of 160.  

West Approach goes well at Cheltenham and was a close-up 3^rd off 11 in this race 12 months ago. Now 2lb lower but he’s not the most consistent of horses, as he’s already shown this season. A good second to Frodon here in October on his return before disappointing back here last month. On a going day he’s handicapped to go close but it depends what sort of mood he’s in.

3:35 – Citipost Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m

Top-weight Unowwhatimeanharry bounced back to win at Aintree on his seasonal reappearance. He’s 4-8 here and a 3lb rise for his Aintree win isn’t harsh. Mohaayed finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Unowwhatimeanharry. Won the County Hurdle in 2018 and is back down to a good mark. Unexposed over staying distance, Aintree was the 8-year-old’s first start beyond 2m 4f but he could find one or two stronger stayers here.

On the Blind Side a useful novice hurdler didn’t really take to fences. However, he seemed to enjoy returning to the smaller obstacles when winning over 3m on the other course last month. Showed a good attitude to hold off his challengers on the run in that day.  The 8-year-old is 4 wins from 6 runs 5 places over hurdles, including 2-2 at Cheltenham. Up 5lb here but remains on a competitive mark.

Goodbye Dancer won this last year, off 1lb higher. Looked set to go close back here on New Year’s Day off 10lb higher but fell at the last. Hasn’t run to anything like his best from on subsequent starts and may need to soft ground if he’s to gain back-to-back wins in the race.  

Vive Le Roi is on a losing run that goes back to November 2018 but ran well to finish runner-up in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January. Hasn’t been at his best in two starts in lesser company this season but has dropped down to a good mark.

Verdict: I have a feeling we’ll see a better performance from the veteran Sykes. Last year’s winner Goodbye Dancer like it here and is on a winnable mark. On The Blind Side enjoyed the return to hurdling last time and will be tough to beat if in the same mood.

1pt win – On The Blind Side – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Goodbye Dancer – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John