Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

As was expected Saturday’s Newbury card failed to pass a morning inspection. Betfair’s Super Saturday’ Newbury card will now be on Sunday February 21st with ITV coverage alongside racing from Market Rasen.

At the time of writing, I’m still waiting to hear news of Warwick’s morning inspection to see if racing can go ahead there tomorrow. If Warwick doesn’t race on Saturday then that meeting has been rescheduled for this Monday which means next week begins on a bit of high.

I have already written Saturday’s preview. Looking at three races from Newbury and one at Warwick but I’m sure the time hasn’t been totally wasted with both meeting set to be held some time in the next nine days.

It’s going to have been a very quiet week on the punting front. Much milder weather is on the way, it’s just a day to late for Saturday’s jumps racing’ However, National Hunt racing should return at Punchestown on Sunday. The feature race of a seven-race card at Punchestown is the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (4:30). There’s also a good card at Exeter on Sunday, although the track is frozen at present, with milder weather heading in then they should also be able to race.

Before that I have two selections from Dundalk’s Friday evening meeting.

Dundalk

5:00 – The booking of capable 7lb apprentice Siobhan Rutledge for Drakensberg is noteworthy and the 7-year-old is handicapped to win a handicap like this when gets a strong pace to chase. Herculaneum put in a career best effort on RPR’s when staying on into 8^th of 14 here three weeks ago, He was only beaten 3 ½ lengths that day and shaped like he was worth stepping up to 1m 4f. Pak Army was far to keen over C&D 7-days ago and did well to hold on third. This is a slightly easier assignment for the 6-year-old and if he can settle better must have a decent chance of third course success.

1pt win – Pak Army – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:00 – Merchant Of Venice a three time all-weather winner all over a mile when trained in England by James Fanshawe. The 6-year-old has yet to win on his four starts since joining the Ado McGuinness yard but finished runner-up on his first two starts and bounced back from a lack luster run when 4^th of 14 over C&D, behind one of today’s rivals Bobby K, three weeks ago.  He gets a 5lb pull, for 2 ¼ lengths from that one today which should enable him to get closer. He might need to drop a pound or two to win and stall 11 isn’t great but Colin Keane is back in the saddle and I think he can get the selection into the money.

1pt each way – Merchant Of Venice – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Morning all,

A tough day at the office yesterday. Tommy’s Oscar was the only return although Unexpected Depth did finish second in the 3m handicap hurdle at Leopardstown.

The best position for my three selections in the handicap chase was Farclas who finished fourth. He led briefly over the last but probably needs further than 2m 5f and better ground.  The winner Off You Go was returned a good price at 10/1 and was findable as mentioned in my race preview:

“Needs to jump better than he has done on his last two starts though but looks up to winning a race like this”.

It looks bleak on the weather front and I don’t think I will be doing much until the weekend. Fingers crossed Saturday’s Newbury Betfair Hurdle meeting can survive the freezing weather.

With the Dublin Racing out of the way I’m going to look at some of the Cheltenham Festival races to see if there is any value in the ante post markets. It’s been a bit since I added anything to Cheltenham ante post portfolio.

Before all that. My thoughts have briefly turned to the summer game. The entries are now out for the first big handicap of the new flat season the Unibet Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and I have an ante post selection for the next months race.

Doncaster – March 27^th 2021

Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)

King Ottokar is one of only two that I kept in my tracker at the end of the last flat season. Primarily for big field handicaps like the Lincoln or the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.

He went into the notebook after an eyecatching performance at Doncaster last September when finishing 5^th of 12 in a mile handicap. He was unlucky in the run, but for that would have been much closer and the ground would also have been a shade on the quick side for the 5-year-old.

I really fancied him for the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Champions Day (8/1). His high draw (22) scuppered his chance at Ascot, as all the action was towards the far rail. He was also a slowly away and he also didn’t get the best of runs at the furlong mark when making his effort. In the circumstance he did well to finish as close as he did in 6^th (beaten 5 ½ lengths).

Sitting off a good pace in a big field handicap, with some ease in the ground is what he ideally wants and he should get in the Lincoln.

Sadly the 20/1 that was available last week has now gone but the 14/1 is still worth taking. For those who prefer going each way, five places are available with Paddy Power & Sky Bet (12/1). At this stage it’s win only for me at 14/1.

1pt win – King Ottokar – 14/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

There are no selections today.

Watch your inboxes for any posts this week.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A small profit on the day despite just the one winner courtesy of Moonlighter at Sandown and three each way selections. Slightly kicking myself for not putting up Deise Aba but apart from that that I did as well as I could.  I highlighted most of the winners in the race previews which is always a plus because it at least I know I’m reading the races correctly.

It’s an eight-race card at Leopardstown today for day two of the Dublin Racing Festival. It’s also day two of the Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend at Musselburgh. Not sure it will survive the freezing weather. It was ‘Baltic’ like conditions at the course on Saturday and set to be even colder today. They will hold a morning inspection to see if racing can go head. With frost and snow forecast it must be odds against they race.  

I have had looks at seven of the eight races at Leopardstown and one from Musselburgh.

Leopardstown

1:10 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 2f

Willie Mullins six mares for this handicap hurdle named in honour of his late father Paddy. Paul Townend has opted for last time course winner and race favourite Dysart Diamond. The mare continued her improvement when winning here at the Christmas Meeting. She steps up 2f in trip today and has been raised 11lb for that win. The 6-year-old should stay and given she’s only had three starts over hurdles could rate higher yet.

There was plenty to like about Rescue Package’s win over Belfast Banter at Punchestown (soft/heavy) 85-days ago. The mare has been raised 7lb for that win which makes life difficult but her absence from that track need not be a negative given both her hurdle wins have come of 69+day layoffs. Needs to find a few lbs of improvement to beat the favourite but provide they go a good gallop she may find it.

Verdict: At the prices I can let Dysart Diamond win. Preference would be for Rescue Package each way.

1pt each way – Rescue Package – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying five places 1/5 odds)

1:40 – Tattersalls Ireland Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Sadly, Zanahiyr and French Aseel, (now with Willie Mullins) don’t run but Quilixios does. Willie Mullins saddles three of the six runners: Youmdor, Ha D’or & Saint Sam. Quilixios sets the standard and will be hard to beat, despite being off the track for 99-days.

All three of the Mullins look open to improvement. As is the Joseph O’Brien trained Busselton who finished runner-up to Quilixios stablemate Zanahiyr on his first start for the yard over C&D at Christmas, had Ha D’or & Saint Sam back in third and fourth respectively that day. Busselton bids to give his trainer a third successive win the race.

2:10 – Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Appreciate It was a smart bumper performer, finishing runner-up in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last season. He’s made a smooth transition to hurdling winning both his starts, including in a Grade 1 over C&D last time. He’s just 5/2 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and will take plenty of beating here.

Master McShee also won over C&D last time. Runner up to the favourite on his hurdle debut he’s since gone onto win a Cork maiden hurdle and last time improved further to win a twenty-runner handicap hurdle. The 7-year-old deserves his chance in Graded company and has each-way claims for a small yard.

Ballyadam was a disappointing 4^th behind Appreciate It, here last time but prior to that had looked a smart novice hurdling prospect winning both his previous starts. He’s surely better than he was able show last time and the trainer does have his runners in better form now.

Irascible, a winner on his hurdle debut at Clonmel improved on that effort when finishing runner-up to Appreciate It last time. The 6-year-old has got nine lengths to find with the winner but is open to improvement and would have each-way claims again.

2:40 – William Fry Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 3m

Another competitive handicap with 22 declared to go to post.

Damalisque comfortably beat nineteen rivals in Navan handicap hurdle (2m 4f) 9-days ago. He’s up 12lb for that win but such was his victory that shouldn’t stop him winning this, provided this race doesn’t come to quick. The step up to 3m could bring out further progress and he’s a worthy favourite.

Pure Genius like the favourite owned by J P McManus. The 6-year-old put in a much-improved effort when winning a Punchestown maiden hurdle on his first run at 3m. Handicap debut off a workable mark of 127 with the capable Simon Torrens taking off a further 5lb.

Koshari defied an 875-day absence winning a Cork handicap hurdle (2m 4f) 36-days ago. The 9-year-old strong at the finish that day and should stay 3m. Up 9lb for that success but open to more improvement.

Dandy Mag & Unexpected Depth were first and third in a Pertemps Series Qualifier over C&D at Christmas. Dandy Mag came from of the pace to win and showed he stays 3m well. Up 8lb and should go well again but Paul Townend opts for Koshari today.  Unexpected Depth has returned from 431-day absence winning a 3m handicap hurdle at Punchestown in December before finishing third over C&D. Gets a handy 5lb pull with Dandy Mag for 2 ¾ lengths.  

Front Assault, trained by Gordon Elliott, broke his maiden tag over hurdles at the fourth attempt when winning a rated novice hurdle at Thurles (2m 7 ½ f) 49-days ago. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are now replaced by the first-time blinkers. The 6-year-old needs to find a bit more on his handicap debut but’s possible he will in the new headgear.

Verdict: Interesting that Paul Townend opts for Koshari rather than recent C&D winner Dandy Mag. The lightly raced Damalisque could well progress further to defy his 12lb rise in the weights. Unexpected Depth has solid looking claims after his recent third placed effort behind Dandy Mag over C&D. Front Assault makes his handicap debut and gets the first-time blinkers and should be far away as should Pure Genius.

1pt win – Frontal Assault – 10/1 @ Coral

1pt win – Unexpected Depth – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt win – Pure Genius – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:10 – Flogas Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Monkish got the better of Latest Exhibition in the 3m Grade 1 Novices’ Chase over Christmas as he did in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham last season. Despite the drop back in distance, on the likely testing ground I think Monkfish will come out on top again.

I’m not sure if Andy Dufresne will take his place in the line-up. The 7-year-old wasn’t too far behind the two principals over hurdles and has won both his two starts over the larger obstacles so far. Both wins have come over shorter but he did win over 2m 4f over hurdles and ran like he will improve for further when winning a Grade 3 at Navan (2m 1f) last time.

It’s hard to look beyond Monkfish here but Andy Dufresne is an interesting contender but not enough to back here.

3:40 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1) – 3m

Despite the race cutting up to just five runners, just 5lb separates the top four on Official Ratings.

Last year’s winner Delta Work failed to complete in the Savills Chase at the track over Christmas and needs to put that mishap behind him.  Trainer Gordon Elliott could also The Storyteller who won the Grade 1 at Down Royal in the autumn. Delta Work looks the most likely of his pair although he might not want the ground too testing

Ante post favourite Minella Indo also fell in the Savills Chase and is another on a retrieval mission. No problem with soft ground for the 8-year-old.

Kemboy & Melon finished second and third in the Savills Chase and still have entries. The pair give champion trainer a Willie Mullins a strong hand in the race. Kemboy could get an uncontested lead in front and Melon showed last time that he gets 3m.

Verdict: If there is a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in the field its likely to be Minella Indo. As far as today’s race it’s hard to rule out the four other winners. Both Delta Work & Kemboy go well at the track, in the latter’s case this is likely his Gold Cup. Melon wouldn’t be winning out of turn and at the prices is the selection

1pt win – Melon – 9/2 @ Bet365

4:10 – Gaelic Plant Hire Leopardstown Handicap Chase – 2m 5 ½ f

Another maximum field of 22 for the third of three competitive handicaps on today’s card.  I have nine on my race shortlist.

Crossed My Mind bids for the hat trick after handicap chase wins at Thurles and Navan. He’s been raised 10lb for the last of those wins but the 9-year-old has only had six starts over fences so could be open to more progress.

Treacysenniscorthy made all to win the 3m handicap hurdle on this card 12 months ago and took advantage of good mark over fences when winning at Cork 36-days ago. The handicapper was impressed with 9-year-old’s performance as he put him up 12lb.  As he showed last time, he’s a good horse from the front but may not be able to dominate today.

Farclas won the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2018. The 7-year-old made a bright start to his chasing career when winning all his three starts in May/June 2019. Returned from 529-day lay off to finish 5^th of 17 in a hot handicap at Punchestown back in November. Before finishing 3^rd of 22 in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase over 3m here at Christmas. Up 1lb but can win a decent pot.

Minella Times a winner at Listowel on his seasonal return and improved on that effort when finishing one place in front of Farclas in the Paddy Power. He’s up another 4lb and could struggle to confirm that form with Farclas.

Besides Minella Times. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has another couple of contenders in Trainwreck & Myth Buster. Trainwreck was only beaten a head in this race last year, off 2lb lower.  He improved markedly on his season return when fourth in the Paddy Power last time. Given his liking for the track he can’t be ruled out despite being 0-10 over the larger obstacles. Myth Buster finished one placed behind Trainwreck in the Paddy Power. He finished just one place and 3 ½ lengths in a beginners’’ chase over C&D last season. He remains a maiden under rules but can’t be totally dismissed back down in distance.

Off You Go won the Ladbroke Hurdle here twice in 2018/2019, He’s 0-7 since going chasing but the 8-year-old shaped well on his first two starts in handicap chase company before falling at the 4^th at Limerick over Christmas. Needs to jump better than he has done on his last two starts though but looks up to winning a race like this.

The Long Mile won the Limerick race which Off You Go fell in. He’s been hiked 12lb in a better race which makes life tougher but he’s going the right way and the 7-year-old’s form figures since going handicap chasing are 111F1. Probably wouldn’t want the ground to dry before post time as his best three RPR’s have come with heavy in the going description.

Scoir Mear finished third behind The Long Mile at Limerick. The 11-year-old is 7lb higher than when winning at Wexford (soft/heavy) on October but can’t be ruled out with inform Simon Torrens taking off 5lb.

The reserves Uisce Beatha & At The Acorn would have be respected if they got a run. Uisce Beatha caused a 40/1 shock when winning a C&D handicap chase on Boxing Day. He’s up 8lb but can go well if not inconvenienced by the soft ground. At The Acorn would be a lively contender if he got in.  The 7-year-old has struggled on all three starts this season but they were over hurdles. This would be his first run over fences since finishing 6^th of 24 in this race 12 months ago. He was sent off the 9/2 favourite that day and was going well and still in contention when badly hampered by a faller at the final fence (normal two out). He races off 1lb lower than last year and looks like he’s a competitive handicap chase mark.

Verdict: Arguably the most competitive race of the two days.  At the Acorn isn’t likely to get in but would be top of the shortlist if he did.

Of You Go is weighted to go close but his jumping remains a concern in a race like this. Treacysenniscorthy is good from the front as he showed here 12 months ago and last time at Cork. Trainwreck, Myth Buster & Minella Tines give Henry De Bromhead strong hand in the race. Minella Times is consistent but Trainwreck will be suited by the drop back to 2m 5f and has each way claims again. Crossed My Mind is sure to be popular after his Navan success. Farclas looks the sort trainer Gordon Elliott can get a big pot out of this season.

1pt win – Farclas – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Treacysenniscorthy – 13/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Trainwreck – 22/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Musselburgh

Just the one race at Musselburgh has interested me and it’s the best race on the card.

3:25 – bet365 Scottish Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2) – 1m 7 1/2 f

Third Time Lucki made it 3-4 since going hurdling when winning at Kempton 43-days ago. He looks a worthy favourite on ratings.

Bareback Jack a winning Irish pointer is 2-2 since hurdling. He’s open to further improvement and won over C&D on his hurdle debut.

Irish raider Belfast Banter was a good 5^th behind Not So Sleepy in a valuable Ascot handicap hurdle. Richard Johnson is an eyecatching jockey booking but 6-year-old is only 1-12 over hurdles and is vulnerable to any improvers in the field.

If there is one who can beat the favourite it could be Tommy’s Oscar. The 6-year-old made it 3-3 when winning a comfortably winning a C&D handicap hurdle (soft) 16-days ago. He’s a good prospect and although he has 11lb to find on Official Ratings with Third Time Lucki he’s a hurdler on an upward curve who probably hasn’t stopped improving just yet.  Trainer Anne Hamilton has a 25%-win strike rate with her last time out winners.

Verdict: The clear form choice is favourite Third Time Lucki. Belfast Banter is vulnerable from a win perspective but has place claims. Both Bareback Jack and Tommy’s Oscar have improving profiles with the latter looking the each-way alternative to the favourite.

1pt each way – Tommy’s Oscar – 8/1 @Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Wetherby’s move to an all-hurdle card means I haven’t had a look at any of the races at the West Yorkshire track. That leaves us with of course the Dublin Racing Festival and races at Musseleburgh and Sandown to go at.

Where do I begin today’s preview? Where else but Leopardstown.

Leopardstown

There are seven races for the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival and I have had look at the first six.

It’s been a dry 48 hours at Leopardstown so the ground has dried up a bit. It’s now soft on the hurdle track and yielding to soft on the chase track.

1:05 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors ’50k Cheltenham Bonus For Stable Staff’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 6f

The highly progressive Gaillard Du Mesnil heads the market. The 5-year-old made a promising debut for Willie Mullins when 2nd of 20 at Punchestown back in November. He built on that initial promise when winning a maiden hurdle here (2m 4f) 40-days ago. He’s open to plenty more improvement for the step up to 2m 6f and looks a solid favourite.

Mullins could also saddle Stattler who also won a 2m 4f maiden hurdle here over Christmas. Like his stablemate he should improve for the step up in trip.

An even stronger challenger to the favourite looks to be Cape Gentlemen. The 5-year-old won the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh on just his second start for Emmet Mullins. He looked a smart novice hurdle prospect when winning a Punchestown maiden on his hurdles debut 60-days ago. That win came over 2m 4f but he should stay today’s extra two furlongs.

Verdict: Mullins applies the first-time hood to Gaillard Du Mesnil but he still rates the pick and looks value at 3/1 or bigger. Cape Gentlemen could reward each-way support. 

1:35 – Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1 ½ f

Just the six now go to post.

Chacun Pour Soi is one of the bankers of the Dublin Racing Festival. I don’t see the Willie Mullins trained 9-year-old not winning this for the second season running.  I put up Tornado Flyer (20/1) each-way earlier in the week and I remain happy with that. It’s a no bet race for me now.

2:10 – Patrick Ward & Company Solicitors Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 1 ½ f

Nine go to post for this year’s race but we have an odds on favourite in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained Energumene. The 7-year-old made it 2-2 since going over fences when beating Captain Guinness at Naas 24-days ago. He jumped well that day and needs to win this to maintain his position as second favourite to Shishkin in next month’s Arkle Novices’ Chase.

Mullins also saddles Franco De Port & Unexcepted. The first named is like his stablemate 2-2 over fences after his win in a Grade 1 over C&D at Christmas. Fast run race suited him that day and he could get that again here. While Energumene is the stable number 1. You can argue that Franco De Port’s form is stronger. Unexcepted is 1-1 since going chasing after winning at Tipperary back in October. He looked an exciting novice prospect at Tipperary and can’t be ruled out.

Darver Star runner-up to Honeysuckle in last year’s Irish Champion Hurdle and then third in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. Has yet to reach that level over fences so far but was a good second to Franco De Port last time and is getting better with racing.

Verdict: Energumene is the most likely winner but I’m hopeful that stablemate Franco De Port can get into the places.

1pt each way – Franco De Port – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:45 – Matheson Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m1½f

Twenty go to post for this first of two of competitive handicaps on the card.

Horses aged six or seven have won the last four running’s of this handicap chase and three of those four were sent off 8/1 & under and the other was 14/1.  It will hopefully pay to concentrate on those younger horses and those at the front of the betting.

The Shunter won a beginners’’ chase beating a subsequent dual winner at Punchestown in September. When last seen in action showed the benefit of a strongly run race when winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham.  Unexposed over the larger obstacles and the 8-year-old should go well here.

Epson De Houx is an old-fashioned chasing type who made it 2-3 when winning on his handicap chase debut at Naas 24-days ago. He’s been hiked 13lb for that success though which makes life tougher but he remains a big contender.

Willie Mullins opts for the first-time hood with Pont Aven. The 8-year-old has been knocking on the door in valuable handicaps on his last two starts here and at Fairyhouse last time. He night be better over slightly further but the anticipated strong pace will be in his favour.

1pt win – Epsom De Houx – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – The Shunter – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m

Honeysuckle won this race 12 months ago and puts her nine-race unbeaten run on the line.  The mare didn’t have to be at her very best to win the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on her seasonal return. She will be sharper with that run under belt and although this year’s renewal looks stronger than last years, she looks sure to go close on ground that will suit. If she does win connections will surely roll the dice and let her take her chance in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Next in the betting is Sharjah. The 7-year-old gained his third C&D win when successful in a Grade 1 over Christmas. A small field suit him well and given Leopardstown is his track. He can never be ruled out around here.

It’s not a two-horse race though. Abacadabras, runner-up to Shishkin in the Supreme Novices, held off Saint Roi to win a tactical Grade 1 Morgana Hurdle at Punchestown two starts back. He ran well below his best behind Sharjah here last time. The 7-year-old is better than that and really needs to win or go close here if he’s to remain a Champion Hurdle contender.

Besides Sharjah, Willie Mullins will also saddle Saint Roi & Saldier. The first named was only 4^th behind Sharjah last time and may be better in a bigger field. Saldier was 6^th in that race but that was his seasonal return and first run for 409-days. He should get closer to his stablemate on Saturday and is another who needs to win to get back into the Champion Hurdle picture. 

3:50 – Ladbrokes Hurdle (Extended Handicap Hurdle) (Grade B) – 2m

This looks ultra-competitive with twenty-two handicap hurdlers set to meet the starter. The pace looks likely to be strong and there should be plenty of competition for the lead.  

The Moyglass Flyer won a handicap hurdle over C&D last season. Wasn’t seen again until running in the same race this December when finishing 3^rd of 20. Another big run can be expected given his liking for the C&D.

West Coast Wildway put in a career best on RPR’s when winning a Thurles handicap hurdle 48-days ago. Up 7lb here but further improvement can’t be ruled out.

Saint D’oroux was beaten ¾ length by West Coast Wildway and gets a 3lb pull here. Showed a liking for a big field handicap when 3^rd of 22 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last March.

Advanced Virgo bids to give Charles Byrnes a fourth successive win in the race. The 6-year-old put in a career best effort when winning a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse 69-days ago. He’s been put up 10lb for that success but seemed to have plenty in hand that day and is very much a player. 

Drop The Anchor was badly hampered in the same race and did well to finish third. He tends to run his race in these big field handicap hurdles but is vulnerable to any improvers.

Hes A Hardy Bloke represents Noel Meade who won this race in 2017. The 6-year-old has won his last two starts over hurdles in maiden/novice company. Handicap hurdle debut off a workable mark of 134.

Golden Jewel was a strong finishing second in this race 12 months ago off 8lb lower. He showed he could be competitive off around his present mark when 2^nd of 17 at Down Royal two starts back.  The 9-year-old doesn’t win often enough, 0-18 since May 2018, but is well suited to a big field and the likely strong pace will suit.

Verdict: A fiendishly tricky handicap. I had seven on my shortlist and may still struggle to get any into the places. Golden Jewel can be ridden to get in to the places, as he was 12 months ago. Saint D’oroux can give his supporters a good run for their money. There was plenty to like about Advanced Virgo’s win last time. The Moyglass Flyer’s C&D form means he has to be respected.

1pt win – Advanced Virgo – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Saint D’oroux – 16/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – The Moyglass Flyer – 6/1 – Gen

Musselburgh

2:05 – bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Blakeney Point needs to improve on his recent C&D success and he’s 2lb higher here. The 8-year-old was rated 105 on the flat when trained by Roger Charlton so could be capable of being better than a 127 horse over hurdles.

1pt win – Blakeney Point – 15/2 @ Bet365

3:45 – Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 4m 1f

Le Breuil needs to win this to get into the Grand National. Found 3m 5f too short when 3^rd of 13 in the Classic Chase at Warwick three weeks ago. Today’s longer trip is even better and he’s strong contender.

The Ferry Master is 2-3 since going over fences. Both wins having come at around 3m but is expected to. The 8-year-old is ground versatile, won on both heavy and good, and jumped well when winning at Newcastle last time. Has been given a 70-day break and has likely been aimed at this race.

Dino Boy is who’s worthy of respect. He proved at Kelso in December that this trip isn’t a problem when winning the Borders National at Kelso. He’s 8lb higher here but capable of getting into the money.

Prominent racer Saint Xavier should be suited by the track and ran well for a long way when 4^th of 11 to Double Shuffle at Kempton last month. The first time visor he wore last time is replaced by the first-time blinkers and he shouldn’t be far away.

Bob Mahler won this 12 months ago off 2lb lower. Has pulled up on all three starts this season though and last good performance came when 3^rd of 23 in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. Hopes rest of the reapplied blinkers galvanizing the 9-year-old back to form.  

Verdict: Can’t say I have ever taken to Le Breuil but there is no denying his claims here. Preference though is for the unexposed novice The Ferry Master.

2pts win – The Ferry Master – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Sandown

1:15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Dolos bids for a hattrick of wins in the race and is just 1lb higher than when beating First Flow 12 months ago. Given that ones’ exploits since Dolos looks a worthy market leader.

Paddy’s Poem finished runner-up to Ibleo over C&D last time. He’s respected but is 5lb out of the weights and might prefer better ground than he’s getting here.

Moonlighter has a bit to find on with Paddy Poem here last time but comes into this if reproducing his neck second in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his seasonal return. Won on heavy last season and isn’t out of this.

Billingsley was progressive handicap chaser in the mud last season but has questions to answer on the jumping front after unseating his rider and falling on both starts this season.

Destrier is nicely handicapped on his best form but is likely better on a sound surface.

1pt win – Moonlighter – 8/1 @ Bet365

1:50 – Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Just the seven go to post but it looks a competitive renewal of the race. Of the front three in the betting Hitman, Shan Blue & Messire Des Obeaux. My preference is for Messire Des Obeaux who made it 2-2 over fences when winning a rescheduled Dipper Novices’ Chase at Wincanton last time. Has won on soft, although heavy is a bit of an unknown he should be fine on the ground.

2:55 – Virgin Bet Warriors Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f

Gardefort returned from 588-day layoff to finish an excellent 2^nd of 12 to Bennys King at Ascot in December. May have found the race coming two quick when pulling up at Wincanton last month. Granted the 12-yearpold hasn’t won since February 2017 but has been given a good chance by the handicapper if you ignore his last run.

Alnadam is respected on his C&D win in November and probably didn’t like Kempton’s sharp track when pulling up last time.

Evander has only had four starts over fences winning at Doncaster two starts back. Ran almost as well when runner-up at Wincanton last time but may not get an uncontested lead here.

1pt each way – Gardefort 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

3:30 – Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m

Ask Me Early is 2-2 over fences after two wins in the mud at Chepstow. Up 7lb for the latest of those wins 28-days ago but is going the right way and the 7-year-old looks the one to beat.

Deise Aba won this race 12 months ago off 2lb lower. Has pulled up on both starts this season though and hopes rest on the 8-year-old bouncing back to form in the first time cheekpieces.

Kiltealy Briggs has run respectably on both his starts over fences this season. Goes well on heavy ground, form figures 112, and should be suited by the step up to 3m for his handicap chase debut.

1pt win – Kiltealy Briggs – 13/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Both King Ragnar & Springfield Fox disappointed in their respective races yesterday but at least Shanty Alley gave us a good run for our money finding just one to strong in Wincanton’s feature race.

Not the best of starts to a busy few days racing.  Today I was going to leave alone but I have found a couple at Chepstow to be interested in, albeit to modest stakes.

Chepstow

3:20 – Alminar won a heavy ground, 3m handicap chase here last January and shaped well when 3^rd of 13 at Cheltenham back in October. Not far off his best when third at Kelso last time and can go close.   

Holdbacktheriver won this race 12 months ago, off 1lb lower, and was an encouraging 5^th of 11 at Exeter last time. He’s capable of going well again and the cheekpieces he wore when winning this race return, for the first time since.

1pt win – Alminar – 9/2 – Gen

4:20 – Destin D’ajonc remains a maiden after five starts over fences.The 8-year-old has shaped a bit better on his last two starts though and finished runner-up at Uttoxeter 49-days ago. Clearly not the easiest to win with as 1-14 career record shows but he’s on a what looks like a competitive mark and connections landed Wincanton’s feature race yesterday.

1pt win – Destin D’ajonc – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have a couple of fancies at Wincanton today and one from Meydan.

Wincanton

3:10 – A field of 14 have been declared for a competitive looking handicap chase and the bookies are going 11/2 the field.

The market is headed by Shanty Alley who bids for the hat trick after improved wins at Uttoxeter and Doncaster. He’s up 13lb for that success and in a deeper race but should go well again.

The Kings Writ was runner-up in this race last year and ran a cracker to finish runner-up in the Somerset National 14-days ago. The handicapper has nudged him up 5lb for that effort but he might well have won but for making a mistake at the last.

Final Nudge returned from a 12-month layoff to win at Market Rasen last February. The 12-year-old is having his first start since then and his first start for Fergal O’Brien. The 12-year-old isn’t handicapped out of this on his best back form and has run well here in the past.

Springfield Fox is arguably the most intriguing runner. The 8-year-old Had looked an exciting prospect for staying chases when making all to win at Chepstow & Exeter early last year. He was sent off just 8/1 for the Coral Welsh Grand National. He never got the front that day and never seemed to be travelling. Running as if something was amiss. Trainer Tom George has been struggling for winners of late which is a slight concern.

Eden De Houx has only had three runs over fences. He looks steadily progressive and was doing his best work at the finish when 4th of 13 at Exeter over 3m. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces today and this is the first start since a wind-op.  Won on heavy over hurdles so underfoot conditions shouldn’t inconvenience the 7-year-old.

Verdict: I’m going to give Springfield Fox a chance despite an underwhelming run in the Welsh Grand National last time. Final Nudge returns from almost 12 months off the track and is interesting on his first start for Fergal O’Brien. Shanty Alley is the form pick but this is a better race than last time.

1pt win – Springfield Fox – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Shanty Alley – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Meydan

5:25 – King Ragnar twice a winner when trained by Roger Varian. The 4-year-old shaped with a bit of encouragement on his first start for Mike De Kock when 7^th of 14 here 14-days ago. He found things happening a bit to quickly over 5f but was finishing his race off nicely. That was his first run since September so he was entitled to need it and a return to 6f will be more in his favour.  Each way claims if stall 1 isn’t an inconvenience.

1pt each way – King Ragnar – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Nothing from me today. I don’t like punting at Southwell and Newcastle is an eight race “Jumpers Bumpers” card. Which doesn’t do it from a betting perspective.

Instead of a Tuesday selection. I have an each-way selection for Leopardstown on Saturday and an ante-post each way selection for the Cheltenham Festival.

Saturday February 6th

1:35 – Ladbrokes Dublin Chase – 2m 1f

I don’t see the Willie Mullins trained 9-year-old not winning the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin for the second season running. However, the trainer has another potential runner who could get in to the places at big odds. The horse is Tornado Flyer. You can forgive the 8-year-old for his poor run over 3m here last time. He was ridden to get the trip, just didn’t stay and he’s better judged on his two previous runs. When running Min to a length in the Grade 1 John Durkan at Punchestown and trying to give nearly a stone to the progressive Daly Tiger in a valuable handicap on his seasonal return.

Granted he’s probably better over 2m 3f/2m 4f but he won a Grade 3 over 2m 1f last season and the drop back in trip is better than going over 3m that’s for sure. You can get 20/1 with Ladbrokes & Paddy Power for the Dublin Chase which looks a good each way bet.

1pt each way – Tornado Flyer -20/1 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power (both playing 3 places 1/5 odds).

Cheltenham Festival Ante Post Selection

Festival Novices’ Chase

Eklat De Rire had jumped well for a novice when making winning debut over fences at Punchestown. He put in an even better jumping performance when making all to win the Grade 3 at Naas on Sunday. Once again, he relished the heavy ground on Sunday. The Festival Novices’ Chase (formerly known as the RSA) is next on the agenda for the 7-year-old. He will come up against Monkish there. Now he will need to improve further to beat that one. However, he’s a smart recruit to chasing and the 14/1 available with Bet365 looks fair to me.

1pt each way – Eklat De Rire – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds).

There’s likely to be a few more weekend ante-post selections over the next few days so watch your inboxes.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Stormy Judge’s win at Naas yesterday enabled the service to end a disappointing weekend on a winning note.  

The wet and freezing weather that has played havoc with the jumps racing during January looks set to continue into the first week in February. Tomorrow’s Lingfield card has been abandoned and there doubts as to whether Limerick will race.

We have already lost two of Wednesday’s fixtures (Exeter & Leicester) and there is a doubt about Warwick racing.

I’m not expecting much in the way of selections this week. It looks a quiet one. However, keeping your powder dry may be the best strategy because the weekend promises to be an absolute cracker of top-class racing and plenty of betting opportunities.

We have the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown and you can see the best off the action on ITV. The terrestrial brodcaster will be covering two races on Saturday, in addition to the best of the action from Sandown & Musselburgh.

On Sunday they are covering six races from Leopardstown, including the four Grade 1’s, and four races from the second day of Musselburgh’s Scottish Cheltenham Trial’s Weekend.

Fingers crossed the weather doesn’t let us down at the end of the week because this is the best two day’s racing between now and the start of next month’s Cheltenham Festival.

There are no selections today although I have a couple of tentative fancies from Dundalk that I have put up in my Monday Daily Punt column.

Watch your inboxes ante post selections for the Dublin Racing Festival as I think there will be a few over the coming days.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A couple of poor days to overcome. I’m just hoping that Sunday’s jumps meetings at Naas and Catterick survive early morning inspections. Mind you given my present form maybe it will be better on the betting bank if the racing doesn’t take place.

The highlights of an eight-race card at Naas are to Grade 3 contests, including what could be a good novice chase (3:15). It’s Naas that offers the chance of clawing back the last two days losses.

Naas

1:15 – Beacon Edge is the one to beat in the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle. The 7-year-old comes into the race with the best recent form. He was beaten less than a length into third by Honeysuckle in the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse 63-days ago. Drops back to 2m here but remains progressive.

Coeur Sublime was travelling like the most likely winner and looked set to cause a big shock when hitting the front at the last on the Grade 1 Morgana Hurdle at Punchestown on his seasonal return and first start since joining his present yard. He couldn’t back up that promise when last of seven in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. A winner of a Grade 2 last season means he must give weight all round but he gets the first-time hood and has a decent chance if reproducing his best form in the headgear.

1pt win – Coeur Sublime – 7/1 @ Bet365

2:45 – Majurca had useful form over hurdles/fences when trained in France but didn’t perform particularly well on either start for Joseph O’Brien a couple of seasons ago. The 7-year-old has since switched to Aidan Anthony Howard and interestingly remains in the ownership of J P McManus. Has a 735-day absence to overcome but feasibly handicapped if the stable switch has had the desired effect. It will be interesting to see if the money come sin for him.

1pt each way – Majurca – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:15 – Eight go to post for this Grade 3 novice chase and it could be an informative contest.

Pencilfulloflead who beat Thyestes winner Coko Beach on his chase debut before beating Latest Exhibition in a Grade 2 at Punchestown. The 7-year-old ran just as well in defeat when beaten ½ length by Colreevy in a Grade 1 at Limerick on Boxing Day. Could be open to more improvement over 3m + but does have to give weight away to some promising novices.

Eklat De Rire jumped well for a novice when making a winning debut over fences over today’s trip at Punchestown last month. No problem with heavy ground or distance and he’s open to any amount of improvement.

Noel Meade has saddled the winner of this race five times in the past 12 years.  He runs Eurobot who won at the second time of asking over fences when successful in Thurles beginners’ chase two starts back. Thrown in the deep end on his next start in the 3m Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but unseated his rider at the 11^th. Today’s more testing ground will suit and the further the 7-year-old goes the better he’s likely to be.

Verdict: Pencilfulloflead will be a very good novice of he can give weight to some unexposed rivals here. Eklat De Rire looks an exciting novice chase prospect and looks capable of plenty of improvement on just second start over the larger obstacles. Eurobot has solid each way claims on today’s more testing ground but does need to jump better than he did last time.

1pt each way – Eurobot – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 0dds)

3:45 – Fourteen go to post for this novices’ handicap chase and you can give half of the field a decent shout.

Notice To Close made it 2-3 over fences when landing a Clonmel novices’ handicap chase (heavy) two starts back. The 7-year-old continued his excellent form when taking advantage of a lower mark when winning over hurdles at Limerick 34-days ago. Hiked up 9lb for his last chase success but is going the right way.

Stormy Judge is another making his handicap chase debut. He finished third to Notice To Close on his chase debut and is 9lb better off with that one here. The second Enjoy D’allen has also gone onto win twice over fences since. A good second in a Limerick novice chase (heavy) last month. The return to 2m 4f should be in his favour and he looks on a workable mark.

Punitive won two handicap hurdles last season on testing ground. Down the field in two starts in beginners’/ novice company over fences but looks more interesting on his handicap chase debut.

Fag An Bealach won a C&D novices handicap chase on her third start over the larger obstacles and its worth forgiving her latest run over hurdles. Up 6lb for her C&D success demands more improvement from the mare but she could be capable of it.

Ilikedwayurthinkin won a couple of handicap hurdles last season. Not at the level of his handicap hurdle form on his three starts over the larger obstacles but looks more interesting in handicap company. The type to land a nice handicap pot over fences off his present mark but maybe not in a stamina slog in the mud.

Moscowsowhat is an improved horse for going over fences. A winner of a Tramore beginners’’ chase in December. He was a solid 2^nd of 9 in handicap chase company at Fairyhouse, Now 3lb higher but the 8-year-old remains capable of a bit better.  

Verdict: Notice To Close looks a worthy market leader but at the prices I just prefer Fag An Bealach and Stormy Judge. Ilikedwayurthinkin is interesting on his handicap chase debut off his mark but maybe want’s less testing ground than likely here .

1pt win – Fag An Bealach – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Stormy Judge – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Cheltenham’s Trial’s Day has been abandoned which wasn’t the biggest of ever surprise. The track had more rain than expected and once that happened there was no chance that the meeting would take place. Even if they had raced, they would have to have taken three fences and probably one hurdle so the chase races would have been a bit of a farce.

That’s the second meeting that Cheltenham has lost this year. At least the ground for the Festival should be pretty good.

There should be problem with Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase day although the going will be bordering heavy if there is more rain before post time.

ITV have revised their offering now that Cheltenham is off. They were due to cover just three races from Doncaster but they have added the Lightning Novices’ Chase to their broadcast plans as well as three races from Lingfield’s all weather card.

I am concentrating on the Doncaster action today.

Shishkin bids for a hat trick of wins over fences in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase (1:30) and he will be long odds on to beat his four rivals.  The Lightning Novices’ Chase is one of three Grade 2 races on the Doncaster in addition to the big betting race of the weekend the Sky Bet Handicap Chase (3:15) with thirteen declared to run.  

Doncaster

2:05 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f

The Nicky Henderson trained mare Floressa heads the ante post betting. A winner at Newbury two starts back on good ground before finishing 4^th of 5^th in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Clear form chance but I’m not sure she wants the ground too soft.  

Henderson has another interesting runner in Marie’s Rock. Looked a decent prospect when winning her first two starts over hurdles last season.  Sent off the 2/1 favourite for the Newbury race won by Floressa but was far to keen and finished a well beaten 7^th of 9. The 6-year-old get’s the first-time hood/tongue tie combination and needs them to have a big effect. If they do I think she can put her career back on track and win this. Both hurdle wins came on soft so there shouldn’t be any issue with underfoot conditions.

Miranda is next in the betting and has won on soft in the past and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nicholls mare was sent off favourite.

Irish Roe finished runner-up to Lady Buttons in this race last year. Twice a course winner and her form figures over C&D are 112222. She has won on soft once in the past but the 10-year-old’s best form has come on a sounder surface and can’t be totally dismissed.

2:40 – Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f

A big field of thirteen novice hurdlers are set to meet the starter for this year’s renewal. The bookies are 5/1 the field at the time of writing which shows it’s an open looking race and looking at RPR’s just 5lb separates the top eight runners which backs that up. Given the conditions It could turn out to be a real war of attrition.

Emir Sacree formerly trained in France returned from a 635-day layoff when making all to win an Ascot on his first start for Nicky Henderson.  The 7-year-old is up in trip here but should stay and certainly relished the soft ground at Ascot.  Trainer has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2015.

Pats Fancy won a Ffos Las maiden on his hurdle debut and then went on to finish 2^nd of 8 in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last month. Coped well with heavy ground at Ffos Las and showed he stays 3m last time.

Ask A Honey Bee finished one place and 1 ½ lengths behind Pats Fancy at Cheltenham. He looks a shade exposed but is consistent and should run his race. Yard among the winners and had the runner-up last year.

Ashtown Lad seemed to relish testing round and a stamina test when winning an extended 2m 7f Uttoxeter handicap hurdle two starts back. Disappointed behind Pats Fancy & Ask A Honey Bee at Cheltenham last time when 6/4 favourite.  Didn’t seem totally at home over Cheltenham’s undulations that day and could do better on this more galloping track.

Like Henderson, Ben Pauling has won this race twice since 2016. He saddles The Cob improved to win his first two starts on soft & heavy ground. The 7-year-old seemed to have his limitations exposed when only 3^rd of 5 at Newbury last time but the ground was good that day and if the 7-year-old can resume progress returned to mor testing ground he would have each way claims.

Verdict: Ashtown Lad is surely better than he was able to show at Cheltenham and could reverse placings with Pats Fancy and Ask A Honey Bee. At the prices though I’m going with Emir Sacree.

1pt win – Emir Sacree – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:15 – Sky Bet Handicap Chase (Listed Race) – 3m

In my Thursday Daily Punt race preview. I said if the main fancies stand their ground then we’re in for a good race and apart from one they all have done so.

Cap Du Nord runner-up to Royale Pagaille, on just his second start at 3m, last time heads the market. Prior to that he had beaten Canelo at Newbury.

Canelo boosted the form of Cap Du Nord’s Newbury win when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. Like the favourite he’s progressive and trainer Alan King won this race in 2016 & 2017.

One For The Team is one of the least experienced in the field having just had the three starts over fences. Ran Next Destination to 1 ¼ lengths in a Grade 2 at Newbury on his second start over the larger obstacles. Only 5^th of 7 in a Grade 1 at Kempton on Boxing Day but will appreciate Doncaster’s more galloping track. Looks on a handy mark for his handicap chase debut.

Musical Slave seemed to show a liking for 3m and heavy ground when finishing runner-up to Sams Adventure at Uttoxeter in March. Jumping was rusty on this seasonal return at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance so did well to finish as close as he did when 5th of 10 on good ground.

Aye Right finished third in the Charlie Hall Chase and runner-up in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. Had a recent spin in a “jumpers” bumper at Newcastle and so should be spot on fitness wise for this.

Boldmere looked good when winning over C&D handicap here in December 2019 and looked set to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby when falling at the last on his next start. Not at the level of that form this season and disappointed when beaten favourite (2/1) here last month. Big chance if bouncing back to form here.

Give Me A Copper finished two places in front of Boldmere here last time. Has tended to be at his best when fresh and probably won’t want the ground to soft either.

The Butcher Said was quietly fancied for the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his handicap debut over fences. Held up at the rear, he was starting to make some headway when making a mistake five out and that ended any chance he had. Trainer Ollle Murphy’s horses are going better now although the 8-year-old may not want the ground to soft.

Verdict: Cap Du Nord is clearly the one to beat and I could easily be missing out on the obvious one here. At the prices I just want to take him on though. At the prices I’m happy to give Boldmere one final chance. The J P McManus pair of Canelo and Musical Slave should go well. As should Aye Right, who deserves to land a good pot like this although he may prefer slightly better ground

1pt each way – Boldmere – 18/1 @ William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Canelo – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:50 – Not on ITV but I like the claims of Financial Outcome in this 3m handicap chase. The Rebecca Curtis trained 8-year-old improved to win over 3m 2f here, off 7lb lower 12 months ago. Probably needed the run after a recent wind-op when an encouraging 3^rd of 10 at Bangor 16-days ago.  He’s on a competitive mark if returning to last season’s best form from which came on slow ground. Rebecca Curtis saddled the winner of this race in 2015.

2pts win – Financial Outcome – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John