Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

A frustrating end to what’s been an excellent week for the service. All, the more galling as I left Soaring Glory out of my Betfair Hurdle shortlist and went with Mister Coffey instead.

Secret Investor gave Paul Nicholls another win in the Denman Chase. As I wrote in the race preview:

“should the front two fail to perform and the going is good to soft, no worse, Secret Investor could be the one take advantage”.

I didn’t have anything on Secret Investor in the Denman Chase but hopefully some of you did and you would have been rewarded with a 14/1 winner.

It’s been a busy few days and Monday’s cards are moderate so I’m happy to take the day off.

Watch your inboxes for any selections from Tuesday onwards and any weekend ante post selections.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A great day on Saturday with wins by the Third Wind and the ultra-brave Captain Chaos to give us a solid profit on the day. And, yet it could have been even better with 2pt selection Demachine finishing runner-up in the Reynoldstown and Achille occupying the same spot in the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

It’s been a good week profitable week for the service and it piles the pressure on for Sunday to end the week on a high note.

Newbury takes centre stage today. ITV are covering four races from Newbury, two from Market Rasen and the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle from Navan. The latter races see’s Tiger Roll back on the comeback trail for a spring campaign and stablemate Fury Road hoping to get back on track and stake his claims for the Stayers Hurdle.

For today’s long preview I have concentrated on the four races that ITV are covering from Newbury.

Newbury

The milder weather means the going at Newbury for Betfair Hurdle Day is being officially described as good to soft, soft in places. I don’t think it will be as quick as 12 months ago but it certainly isn’t going to be the bottomless conditions that we have seen most of this winter.

1:50 – Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Weekly Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m

Eighteen are set to go to post for this handicap hurdle which was won last season by the Nick Williams trained One For The Team. Two of the eighteen runners Everglow & Mont Condtions had entries at Haydock on Saturday.

Sizeable Sam’s three hurdle starts this season have come at Wincanton. The 6-year-old has won his last two. Improving nicely to win on his handicap hurdle debut last month, despite looking inexperienced.  Has been raised 7lb for his last win but he’s capable of better and connections think he could be up to graded level going forward.

Southfield Harvest also improved for his handicap hurdle debut when 2^nd of 9 (beaten a neck) at Wincanton last time. Up 5lb for that effort but the 7-year-old has only had the four starts over hurdles and is open to more improvement.

Dhowin looked in need of a step up to 3m when finishing 3^rd of 12 at Ascot two starts back and that was confirmed by his effort when 5^th of 20 in last month’s Lanzarote Hurdle (2m 5f) at Kempton.

Palmers Hill returns to hurdling after a disappointing chase debut at Taunton last month. Prior to that the 8-year-old had returned from 461-day break to finish a neck 2nd of 17 at Kempton last February. Not the easiest to keep sound but a big field suits and he’s only had five runs over hurdles. Kempton run came on good to soft so the drying ground should be a positive.

At bigger odds Vive Le Roi is worth considering two of best three RPR’s have come over C&D. Now the 10-year-old hasn’t been running at that level of form of late but he was a credible 5^th off 11 at Cheltenham last time.

Es Perfecto won a good ground maiden hurdle back in October and finished runner-up to the smart Bravesmansgame here on his last start 78-days ago. He’s probably flattered by his proximity to the winner that day but must be respected on his handicap debut given trainer Alan King saddled the winner of this race in 2018.

The drying ground and the form of the Emma Lavelle stable (4-7 in the past 14-days) brings Silent Assistant firmly into the mix. The 7-year-old is 0-6 over hurdles but has finished runner-up on his two starts this season. The first of those came at Cheltenham in handicap company off 6lb lower and last time he showed he stayed 3m in maiden hurdle at Doncaster 72-days ago. His jumping will be tested here but he’s got each way claims and can win a race off his present mark.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Of those at the front end of the market. I like the claims of the Jeremy Scott trained Sizeable Sam.  Provided the going is good to soft and no worse Silent Assistant has good each way claims.

1pt win – Sizeable Sam – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Silent Assistant – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

2:25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7 ½ f

Clan Des Obeaux won this race when it was run atAscot two years ago. Last seasons King George VI winner also made a highly encouraging seasonal return when runner-up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Looked very laboured when a well beaten in this seasons King George VI so has questions to answer after that run. However, maybe that came to quick after his Haydock effort on heavy ground.

Lostintranslation last seasons Betfair Chase winner and Gold Cup third has even more questions to answer than Clan Des Obeaux  after two poor runs this season. He’s had a second wind-op since pulling up in the King George VI. Clear chance on his best form last season and the better ground will suit the 9-year-old.

The two at the heading of the betting have a big class advantage over the rest of the five likley runners. Should both underperform again. Who can take advantage?

Kalashnikov has run plenty of races over fences, albeit over shorter than 3m, runner-up to Mister Fisher in the Peterborough Chase (2m 4f) at Cheltenham last time but hasn’t won since April 2019. Stamina to prove for 3m.

Venetia Williams won this with Houblon Des Obeaux in 2016. She saddles Cepage here. The 9-year-old has high class handicap chase form won at Cheltenham last January and bounced back to form when winning on his second start of this season at Chepstow 43-days ago. Just one start beyond 2m 5f when 7^th in the valuable Ultima Handicap Chase at last seasons Cheltenham Festival. Another with stamina to prove but he looks a big price.

Secret Investor was sent off the joint favourite for the Ladbroke Trophy but his jumping let him down in a big field. Prior to that the 9-year-old had impressed when making virtually all to win at Chepstow (good) on his seasonal reappearance. He was a respectable second to Native River in this race 12 months ago. Today’s smaller field will suit and the drier the ground the better.

Not a race I’m going to have a bet in but should the front two fail to perform and the going is good to soft, no worse, Secret Investor could be the one take advantage.

3:00 – Betfair Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f

No Altior but all eyes on stablemate Champ who makes his seasonal reappearance here rather than the Denman Chase. An enigma wrapped in a puzzle last seasons RSA Novices’ Chase winner looked like a four miler when getting up in the final strides to win at Cheltenham. First run since wind surgery. He’s a Grade 1 horse where his five rivals are probably not.

Greaneteen won the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return but seemed to find Grade 1 company to hot when runner-up to stablemate Politologue in the Tingle Creek last time. Needs to improve to win this but the 7-year-old remains progressive.

Sceau Royal finished runner-up to Altior in this race 12 months ago. Started this season over hurdles winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Fell at the fifth returned to fences in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Get’s a handy 6lb from Greaneteen here and this could be his day.

Fanion D’Estruval won over C&D on his stable debut last season. He’s run well on all three starts this season without winning. He finished runner-up to one of today’s rivals Magic Saint on his seasonal return at Cheltenham and hadn’t come off the bridle when coming down three out in the Peterborough Chase on his next start. Not disgraced when putting up a career best on RPR’s when fourth in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase. The return to going back left-handed will suit the 6-year-old and he’s unexposed.

Verdict: Champ is unbeaten on his four startsat Newbury and a perfect 4-4 on good to soft but can he beat specialist two milers at their own game. He’s got the class to win that’s for sure. His biggest challenger could turn out to be Fanion D’Estruval.

1pt win – Champ – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 2m ½ f

Twenty-four have been declared for the betting race of the weekend if not the month. One of them Friend Or Foe was due to run at Wincanton on Saturday. I could make a good case for half of the runners.

Nicky Henderson won this in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours and he’s got a couple of lively contenders in Mister Coffey & Buzz. The former looked good when winning a handicap at Sandown on his seasonal return. Probably found the ground to heavy back at the same venue a month later when 3^rd of 10 behind Benson. The 6-year-old won on his hurdle debut over C&D last season. He’s only had four starts over hurdles and remains in the could be anything category.

Stablemate Buzz is more experienced he’s had six start over hurdles, winning three of them. A winner at Ascot in November. He put in a career best on RPR’s when runner-up to Not So Sleepy in a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. Henderson has booked Kevin Brogan to take off a handy 5lb off the top-weights back.

Soaring Glory beat leading Ballymore hope Bravemansgame on his seasonal return at Chepstow. Before finishing runner-up, trying to give 6lb, to a useful Henderson novice Dusart over C&D. Fell when the most likely winner at Wetherby two starts back. Last time out was a good third in a Grade 2 at Ascot in December. The 6-year-old must be considered a big player.

Alan King saddles a couple of last time out winners in Edwardstone who looks an ideal type for the race but is a 7-year-old. As is stablemate On To Victory who won a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month and won the November handicap on the level.

Annual Invictus bids for the four timer. The 6-year-old makes his handicap hurdle debut off a workable mark of 135 and looks a lively each way contender with Richard Johnson an eyecatching jockey booking.

Dan Skelton has laid Cadzand out for the race. Like the favourite, Cadzand is a novice. The 6-year-old has been steadily progressive since going hurdling winning his last two starts at Warwick and a handicap at Kempton over Christmas. On the latter occasion he beat recent Musselburgh scorer Christopher Wood by 3 ¼ lengths. He’s 9lb higher here but he’s an improver and remains my idea of the winner.

Milkwood has only had the six start over hurdles. He put in a career best on RPR’s when 3^rd here over C&D. He was still travelling strongly when badly hampered two out that day. The 7-year-old finished his race off strongly and with a clearer passage would probably have won. He can race off the same mark here and trainer Neil Mulholland had had this race in mind all season for him.

Thyme Hill had impressed when winning on his seasonal return at Chepstow (good) in October. The 5-year-old was still in contention when unseating his rider two out at Newbury and hampering Milkwood in the process. Like Milkwood, he’s another the better ground brings into the mix.

Galice Macalo won her first two start over hurdles this season and then finished one place ahead of Mister Coffey behind Benson at Sandown two starts back. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights on that running. The mare was then sent off just 3/1 for the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on her next start but she pulled away any chance she had in the early stages. If you forgive her last run, she would have a chance.

At even bigger odds don’t rule out a big run from Night Edition. The 5-year-old showed he was well suited to a big field when finishing 2^nd of 22 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival. Very disappointing when well beaten on his seasonal return in Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas but may have needed the run that day and trainer David Pipe has his horses in much better form now. Granted he could be aimed at Cheltenham again but I could see him outrunning his odds here.

Verdict: A race you can have three or four darts at and not get one of them into the places. Cadzand has been my idea of the winner for some time. Soaring Glory ticks plenty of boxes and like Cadzand is unexposed. Mister Coffey is better than he’s third place at Sandown last time and could be a graded hurdler. Annual Invictus has been a steady improver and can’t be ruled out. The drying ground brings both Mikwood & Thyme Hill into the mix with preference for the former although no horse older than six has won since 2004. Given the form of the David Pipe stable I could see big outsider Night Edition running a big race.

1pt win – Cadzand – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Mister Coffey – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Night Edition – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A genuinely exciting weekend ahead. There are big races on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton. The action continues Sunday with the rescheduled Betfair’s Super Saturday’ Newbury card and at Market Rasen the Listed Sydney Banks Hurdle, normally run at Huntingdon, which was won last season by Shishkin.

In this long Saturday preview I have had a look at the seven races being covered by ITV.  

Let’s get started at Ascot where the feature race is Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase (3:35).  There are also some good supporting races with the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and two competitive handicaps the highlights.

Ascot

The going at Ascot is being described as soft, heavy in places. A small amount of rain is forecast for Friday but Saturday is set to be mainly dry and mild.

1:50 – Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m

Early ante post favourites The Big Breakaway & If the Cap Fits are not among the final six declarations. Just 9lb separates the six on RPR’s which shows it remains a competitive race.

Remastered has won both his starts in novice company and looks capable of making the step up into graded company and the David Pipe yard among the winners.

Full Back is another who has won his last two starts over fences. Both wins have come on soft ground and he’s improved for going up in distance to around 3m.

Demachine won his first two starts over the larger obstacles, including a competitive novices’ handicap chase over C&D. He was a shade disappointing when only 3^rd of 8 at Newbury 52-days ago but he’s had a wind-op since and he remains capable of better.

Verdict: Probably not the best Reynoldstown in terms of a class but it’s a competitive race. Remastered and Full Back must be respected but I think the Demachine can show he’s better than his Newbury run and is one of my strongest fancies today.

2pts win – Demachine – 100/30 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:25 – “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) – 3m

Twelve go to post for this year’s renewal but it may pay to focus on four.

Jerrysback has only had three starts since finishing third in the National Hunt Chase at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. The last two have been here. He finished a 3 length. 3^rd of 10 behind Regal Encore, gets a 9lb pull with that one, last season over C&D. Was doing his best work at the finish when third behind Dashel Drasher 28-days ago. That was his first start for over a year and he’s entitled to have benefited for it.  Stablemate Musical Slave has a chance but he needs to jump better than he has on his last two starts.

Cobolobo improved for making the running when winning at Exeter two starts back. Couldn’t make the running but built on that performance when 2^nd of 11 to an improver over C&D last time. Nudged up 2lb and in a better race today but shouldn’t be far away.

Yaltari finished just 2 ¼ lengths behind Cobolobo in that race, gets a 2lb pull here. The 10-year-old finished third in the Reynoldstown at this meeting two seasons back and shaped last time like he was coming back into form.

Captain Chaos hails from the inform Dan Skelton yard. The 10-year-old ran a cracker from the front for the second year running when 4^th of 13 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time. The reapplication of the blinkers played a big part in that performance. He’s only 1lb higher than when winning at Doncaster 12 months ago.

Newtide is less experienced than his rivals which makes him of interest here. He’s only had the four starts over fences winning his first two last season. He beat this year’s Welsh Grand National Winner Secret Reprieve on his chase debut before taking advantage of a last fence fall by Boldmere to win the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby.  Only third of 12 on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock back in November but he’s had a wind-op since. The Kim Bailey yard has been back among the winners in the past 7-days and he’s 3-9 with his runners at Ascot this season, so anything he runs must be respected.

Verdict: The claims of Newtide are growing on me given his yards form. Captain Chaos should make a bold bid from the front. Yaltari seems to be working back to form and can get into the money Jerrysback was an eyecatcher here last time and will surely land one a handicap like this.

1pt win – Captain Chaos – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Jerrysback – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

Sixteen runners have been declared but I’m not sure it’s a race with a great deal of depth and just four have really caught my eye.

Good Man Pat has returned to hurdling this season and has been running with credit. Last time out he finished a close-up 2^nd of 5 at Newbury 53-days ago. Has been nudged up 2lb but should run well again.

Dans Le Vent is another who has returned to hurdling this season. Winning at Hereford on his return from a 396-day absence and then did best of those coming from off the pace when 4^th of 12 over C&D 28-days ago. Has a bit to find with Arrivederci (2^nd) & Kateson (3^rd) on that running but in a stronger run race has a good chance of reversing places with those two.

Kepagge won his first three starts under rules last season and looked set for a good season. Fourth on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham better was expected in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick last month and the 7-year-old was still going ok just behind the leaders when getting badly hampered on the home turn. That was his race run and he eventually finished a well beaten 6^th.

Kaizer is 1lb out of the weights but made a bold bid from the front when 2^nd of 8 over 3m 2f at Musselburgh last time. The Scottish raider is 4lb higher here but remains on a workable mark and can’t be totally ruled out.  Yard had an easy handicap hurdle winner at Kelso yesterday.

Verdict: Kepagge ran better than his final position suggests at Warwick last time. Dans Le Vent finished 4^th over C&D last time and a stronger run race will suit. Good Man Pat has been running well over hurdles this season and must be respected.

1pt win – Dans Le Vent – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Good Man Pat – 14/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:35 – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 5f

Just the five go to post for Ascot’s feature race but they include 2019 winner Cyrname and last year’s winner Riders Onthe Storm. There looks like there could be of plenty of pace on with Cyrname, stablemate Master Tommytucker and Dashel Drasher all liking to making the running.

Cyrname had been three from three here at around the distance prior to falling at the last in this race 12 months ago, was well beaten at the time. Made a winning return to action in the Charlie Hall Chase before a lifeless run in the King George VI at Kempton. Paul Nicholls adds the first-time headgear and he’s the one to beat.

Master Tommytucker must be respected after his recent Kempton Grade 2 success where he Riders Onthe Storm well beaten back in third.

Riders Onthe Storm is 2-2 over C&D but hasn’t been in the same form since winning this race last season and has questions to answer after last month’s Kempton run.

Dashel Drasher and Benny’s King were first and second in a competitive C&D handicap last month. The former is 3-3 at Ascot and although there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights Dashel Drasher is probably more progressive of the pair.

An intriguing race but if Cyrname is at his best, he wins. Doesn’t he?

Wincanton

3:18 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) – 1m 7 ½ f

Song For Someone bids for back to back wins in the race. He’s in good form having won both this season’s starts but he faces a couple of serious rivals in Goshen and Navajo Pass.

Goshen had the Triumph Hurdle at his mercy when falling at the last at last seasons Cheltenham Festival but he disappointed on two flat starts in the autumn and was well behind Song For Someone in the International Hurdle last time.

Navajo Pass comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Musselburgh and then when making all to win a Grade 2 at Haydock last time.

A good race to watch but not a betting one for me.  

Haydock

The going at Haydock at the time of writing (Friday afternoon) is being described as soft, heavy in places. One thing we do know about the track is that it will be testing and the 3m 4 ½ f of the Grand National Trial will take some getting.

2:05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) – 3m ½ f

It looks a strong renewal of this year’s Rendlesham Hurdle. The one I fancied Thomas Derby is sadly not among the entries but trainer Ollie Murphy does saddle ante post favourite Itchy Feet. The 8-year-old returns to hurdling for the first time since October 2019. Third in that year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle he’s been racing over fences like the step to 3m will suit.

The favourite gets a handy 6lb from last years winner Emiton and last season Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscarwho is having his first start since a wind-up.  Emiton finished fourth in the Stayer Hurdle and has 5 ¾ lengths to find with Lisnagar Oscar on Cheltenham form. The pair are the class horses of the race and must be respected.

On the Blind Side has looked a lot happier returning to the smaller obstacles this season. A winner on his seasonal return at Cheltenham.  He finished runner up to McFabulous in the rearranged Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Kempton two starts back before showing a good battling attitude to get the better of Lil Rockerfeller on the run-in at Market Rasen just seven days later.

Main Fact won the valuable Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle over C&D two starts back but was outclassed on his step into Grade 1 company when last of the seven finishers behind Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle.

Third Wind was one placed and 2 ½ lengths behind Main Fact in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ but finished two places in front of that one in the Long Walk. There shouldn’t be much between the pair on their Haydock running. Fourth in last seasons Pertemps Final he’s already qualified for that race again and this could be a prep for Cheltenham. If the eight do stand their ground he could repay each way support.

Verdict: Lisnagar Oscar is the best horse in the race and if the wind-op has had the desired effect can go close although he may need a strongly run race to be seen at his best. Third Win can get into the places but this run should put him spot on for next months Pertemps Final.  

1pt win – Third Wind – 7/1 @ Coral

2:40 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Just the nine go to post for this marathon test but you can make a case for all of them.

Improving last time out winners Notachance & Enqarde head the betting. The former is up 7lb for winning Warwick’s Classic Chase. The latter is up 8lb for winning at Ascot but has potential for further improvement stepped up from 3m.

Sojourn returned from a 11-month layoff to win at Carlisle (3m 2f) in November, beating a subsequent winner, and then went onto finish runner-up here in the Tommy Whittle last time. The 8-year-old has only had four starts over fences and is remains capable of more improvement.

Lord Du Mesnill won here twice last season, including C&D and also finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago off 2lb lower. Not hit form yet this season and was well beaten in the Welsh Grand National on his last start. Needs to bounce back here but could well do.

Potters Legend has been in good form this winter winning a veterans’ chase at Warwick on his return and last time out finished runner-up to Gold Cup contender Royale Pagaille here in the Peter Marsh Chase, albeit he was beaten 16 lengths.

The Two Amigos finished third to Notachance at Bangor on his seasonal reappearance, beaten seven lengths and is 12lb better off now.  Jumped superbly when runner-up in the Welsh Grand National. Deserves to win a race like this but often finds one too good and has gone two years since his last success. Usual jockey Matt Griffiths is riding at Ascot so James Bowen takes the ride on the 9-year-old today.

Achille was beaten ½ length into second by Notachance at Warwick last time. He gets a 3lb pull but the winner could be more progressive. That was his first start for 427-days so there could be more to come from the 11-year-old.  Trainer Venetia Williams has saddled the winner of this race twice in the past 10-years.

Ramses De Teillee beat Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November and finished runner-up in this race two years ago, off 3lb lower. The 9-year-old has been well beaten on his last starts though in the Becher Chase at Aintree and the Welsh Grand National. It will be a tough ask to win this off top-weight but a useful conditional takes off a handy 5lb and the David Pipe yard is among the winners again. Must be respected if back to his best here.  

Verdict: Ramses De Teillee is top weight for a reason and a handy 5lb is taken off his back. The Two Amigos deserves to win a race like this. The improving Notachance and Enqarde have obvious claims and Achille won’t be far away if building on last month’s Warwick run.

1pt each way – Ramses De Teillee – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Achille – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

It’s going to be a tough day but I’m hopeful there a few winners to be found in this preview. 

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No Getaway & Éclair Surf provided us with two wins at Sandown yesterday. The former put in a superb display of jumping from the front and it was joy to watch. Those two wins gave us a second day of profit to bank and sets us up for an exciting weekend of racing.

I have had a look at just the one race at Kelso on Friday.

Kelso

2:50 – Edinburgh Gin Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f

Just seven are set to go post for a new race at the Scottish track.

The mare Quick Wave heads the betting after her recent Catterick win. Up 7lb in better race but is in good form and goes well on heavy ground.

Duc De Grissay won over C&D (heavy) last March. The 8-year-old was still very much in contention and upside the eventual winner when sprawling and unseating his rider at the last in the Borders National here back in December.  The handicapper raised him 8lb for not competing which isn’t ideal but he’s only had four starts over fences and is capable of better.

Top weight Vintage Clouds is just 2lb higher than when winning the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock last season. Not raced since 5^th of 7 in a veterans’ chase at Warwick 93-days ago but has had a wind-op since. If the 11-year-old gets into a good jumping rhythm like he did in the Peter Marsh he’s on an attractive mark.

Crixus’s Escape won a 2m 6 ½ f handicap chase on the same card as Duc De Grissay here last March. Needed his seasonal return at Aintree but showed plenty of resolution and stamina to win at Ayr next time. Normally a solid jumper, he was still going well when coming down at the 11^th in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock 62-days ago. Probably needs to improve a shade to win this but he could do so.

Verdict: Quick Wave probably deserves to head the betting but looks plenty short enough and worth taking on.  The more of a stamina test the better for Duc De Grissay returning to 3m. At the prices there’s plenty to like about Vintage Clouds, who will be tough to beat if coming back to his best after another wind-op and Crixus’s Escape who just gets the nod.

1pt win – Crixus’s Escape – 9/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I thought we were in for one of those days but the best was left until last when May Sonic (9/1 BOG) made all for an impressive win at Kempton yesterday evening.  A tidy profit on the day and we have plenty more betting opportunities over the next four days. Starting with a good card at Sandown this afternoon.

It’s not often during the winter that I have such an in-depth preview on a Thursday. The highlight of Sandown’s seven race card is the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2:30). I have had a look at four of the Sandown races in today’s preview.

Sandown

1:55 – Elmbridge Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 1m 7 ½ f

Just the seven are set to go to post for this handicap chase but you can make some sort of case for all of them.

Likely favourite Numitor bids for the hat trick after win at Ffos Las and latterly Wincanton two weeks ago. He’s 8lb higher in better race but is going the right way and capable of defying it.

Early Du Lemo was only beaten a neck over C&D when returning from 689-day layoff before falling at Ascot. Got around safely when 4^th over C&D, behind Ibleo, last month, but his jumping can be either brilliant or dreadful. Likes to get on with it from the front but then so do several others in the field including Numitor.

Grey Diamond returned from a 350-day break, on his first start for Sam Thomas, when 3^rd of 6 at Newbury last month. Given how testing it was that day this was a solid return to action by the 7-year-old. He kept jumping to his right at Newbury so going this way round is a positive. Just three starts over fences and capable of more progress. He’s another who likes to be prominently raced.

Belargus has been in decent form over fences this season but he’s on a losing run that goes back 2-years. Likely to be ridden more patiently and could get the race run to suit.

Enzo D’Airy was impressive when winning at Ascot (2m 1f) in December.  Flopped over 2m 4f at Ludlow 28-days ago. The drop back in trip should be more to his liking and he’s only had three starts over fences. He’s another who could get the right pace set up.

Flegmatik won at Carlisle on his chase debut but disappointed over 2m 4f on his next start, probably didn’t stay and then pulled up behind Enzo D’Airy at Ascot. Get’s the first time cheekpieces here and the Dan Skelton yard is in great form. Might want better ground though.

Verdict: Numitor is the one to beat. Belargus could get the race run to suit, as could Enzo D’Airy but at the prices I’m just siding with Grey Diamond who shaped with promise on his first start for Sam Thomas at Newbury .

1pt win – Grey Diamond – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:30 – Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 4f

Little River Bay heads the market and she bids for the four timer here. She’s ground versatile and stays 2m 4f. Plenty to like about her chance.  

Little Mo comes down from Scotland in search of black type and the 9-year-old can’t be ruled out on her hat trick bid.

Harry Fry saddled the winner of the race in 2016 and runs Misty Whisky who won a Listed mares’ bumper here two years ago. The 7-year-old won her first two starts over hurdles this season before putting up an even better performance against the geldings when 2^nd of 20 in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. I would strongly fancy Misty Whisky here, if her yard was in better form.

Verdict: Hard to look beyond the favourite Little River Bay but Misty Whisky looks a shade of value due to the Harry Fry yard being on the cold list.

1pt win – Misty Whisky – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:05 – Kingston Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f

Caltex looks well handicapped on his heavy ground win at Leicester 12 months ago. He’s struggled since that win though last time was a step back in the right direction when 3^rd of 9 at Market Rasen last time.

One place ahead of Caltex at Market Rasen was Mac Tottie. The 8-year-old had previously taken advantage of good mark when winning at the same venue on his previous start. The drop back to 2m 4f should be of more benefit to him more than Caltex although the stiffer track might suit the latter.

Mister Murchan made it 2-4 over fences when winning at Wincanton28-days ago.He ticks the boxes marked going and distance and although he’s been raised 8lb for that last success should go close.

Not Another Muddle won here over 1m 7 ½ f two years ago, off 2lb higher and wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham a month later. Well handicapped on his best form but the 10-year-old has just three starts since April 2019 and didn’t look he was ready to win at Chepstow 40-days ago.

No Getaway, a half-brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur, ran with plenty of promise when runner-up on his chase debut at Market Rasen two starts back. Didn’t build on that performance when well beaten at Newbury 64-days ago.  Drop back in trip looks a positive and he’s had a wind-op since last run.

Verdict: It could be a good day for favourite backers and Mister Murchan has solid claims. I’m sure No Getaway can win a race off his present mark and hopefully it can be today.

1pt win – No Getaway – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – Littleworth Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m

Eclair Surf made all to win at Hereford two starts back. He was ridden slightly more patiently when only 4^th of 8 at Exeter 39-days ago. Looks interesting for the step up to 3m, won a heavy ground point over the distance so has a good chance of staying.

Cuban Pete won both his two starts this season’ Lost nothing in defeat when 3^rd of 14 in competitive Newbury handicap in December. Jumped to his right at Newbury and will be happier going right-handed.

Skipthecuddles bounced back to form when 3^rd of 10 at Newbury last month and has dropped down to an attractive mark.  It was heavy at Newbury but the 10-year-old’s best previous form had come on better ground.

Highest Sun is only 1-9 over fences but he’s finished fourth on his last two starts in Class 2 contests at Newbury & Haydock. This is a slightly easier race but his jumping will be tested here. Colin Tizzard yard is in better form now.

Verdict:  When I oppose a Venetia Williams horse, they normally win, so I’m loathe to go against Cuban Pete who will be better going right-handed. Despite slight stamina doubts I’m going with Eclair Surf.

1pt win – Eclair Surf – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Ibis Du Rheu didn’t get beyond the second fence at Catterick yesterday. However, we have three competitive handicaps to get stuck into today at Wetherby this afternoon and one at Kempton.

Wetherby

2:05 – Sixt Car Hire Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 1m 7f

Marracudja has had a win since disappointing in the Castleford Handicap Chase over C&D in December. The same race he won the previous season off today’s mark. Big chance at the weights if the wind-op has done the trick.

Commis D’Office, a winner when trained in France has yet to win on his eight starts for Venetia Williams but ran well when 2^nd of 7 at Newbury 63-days ago and is on a winnable mark on the best of his form.

Hollywoodien an easy winner on his final start last season was an eyecatcher on his return to action when 3^rd of 8 to Ibleo at Sandown 46-days ago. Slight concern that he’s had wind-op since but the cheekpieces that were left off last time return.

Maypole Class made it 2-3 over fences when winning at Fakenham last time. Up 8lb in a better race but he’s open to further progress.

Umbrigado has even less experience over fences. Just the two starts but last time he beat three rivals in a Fontwell novice chase. Decent over hurdles he can rate higher over the larger obstacles but I’m not sure the drop back from an extended 2m 3f will suit the 7-year-old.

Verdict: Marracudja and Commis D’Office are on attractive marks and the latter comes into this in good form.  Maypole Class and Umbrigado come into the race on the back of recent wins and are open to more improvement. Hollywoodien shaped well on his return behind Ibleo at Sandown and is the selection.

1pt each way – Hollywoodien – 13/2 @ Bet365

2:40 – racingtv.com Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 3 ½ f

The race of the day in terms of quality. Just the nine declared runners but they include the hat trick seeking Nightboattoclyro & Albert’s Back. The former is just 5lb higher than when winning at Chepstow 28-days ago. Up a notch in class here but the 7-year-old is going the right way.

Albert’s Back is 3-4 at Wetherby and his form figures over hurdles are 1121. The 7-year-old has won both starts this season and last time at Haydock showed he stayed 2m 3f when coming from the rear to win going away. Raised 8lb for his last win but he’s progressive and well suited to soft or testing ground.

Miah Grace has yet to win on five starts at the track but she has finished runner-up four times, including over C&D last month.

No Comment has returned to hurdling this season and last time was beaten only a short head over today’s distance at Hereford. Nudged up 3lb but the 10-year-old should be in the mix once again.

Top weight Midnight Shadow runner-up in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on his last start returns to hurdling for the first time since the 2019 Stayer hurdle. The 8-year-old has a touch of class as he showed when winning the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham two seasons back.

Verdict: Midnight Shadow is interesting back over hurdles but my slight preference is for the improving Albert’s Back.

1pt win – Albert’s Back – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:12 – Racing TV HD On Sky 426 Handicap Chase (Class 4) – 3m

Sigurd was pulled up at Carlisle yesterday so seems unlikely to run here.

Commit Or Quit won over C&D, off 4lb lower, three starts back and ran even better when 2^nd of 9 over C&D last month. Another good run looks likely from the 6-year-old here.

Destinee Royale won a 2m 3f handicap chase at Market Rasen 12 months ago. Despite a 9lb rise in the weights she was sent off 6/4 favourite for her seasonal return at Sandown last month before unseating her rider at the 6^th. Had little chance at the weights when 4^th of 5 in Listed mares chased at Warwick last time but better can be expected back in handicap company and she looks well treated on her first run beyond 2m 5f.

Hugo ‘N Taz won last season’s Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen off 1lb lower but hasn’t run anywhere near that level of form on three subsequent starts.

Leverock Lass won at the fifth attempt over fences here 52-days ago. The ground was heavy that day and she was the only finisher of the four runners. The mare can race off the same mark and has nice light weight.

Verdict: This looks between Destinee Royale and C&D winner Commit Or Quit. At the prices I go with the latter.

1pt win – Commit Or Quit – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Kempton

5:15 – The lightly raced Premier Power, a winner over C&D as a juvenile was only beaten a short head in a similar handicap over C&D two starts back. He meets winner Brian The Snail on 5lb better terms here and should reverse placings with that one today. Not quite as good a Lingfield on his next start but maybe that race came to quick and he’s looked better off a break. Tawny Port was a further ½ length back in third in that Kempton race and gets a handy pull with Premier Power & Brian The Snail. He’s not the most consistent though and has failed to run to that level of form on four subsequent starts on the tapeta & fibresand.

Streamline won Group 2 Sirenia Stakes over C&D as a juvenile.  He missed the whole of last year but has returned to action with a couple of good efforts. Looks to have retained plenty of ability and gets a 6lb pull with Brian The Snail for 1 ½ lengths on their running at Lingfield 26-days ago.

May Sonic is a dual course winner, including 1-1 over C&D.  The 5-year-old disappointed in his hat trick bid when last of 11 at Ascot back in September. First run since but finished runner-up on his start for 361-days last summer.

Verdict: Premier Power can win when all the cards fall right. Streamline could be ready to strike after two runs back from a long layoff and May Sonic is interesting on his return to action.

1pt win – Streamline – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – May Sonic – 8/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

No luck with Al Muffrih at Wolverhampton and Admiral’s Secret came from just too far back. However, Orkan and Jaisalmer did the business for us at Warwick to make it a profitable day and clawed back some of the weekend’s losses.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week.  There’s a good card at Wetherby on Wednesday and decent one at Sandown on Thursday.  However, the action really kicks into gear on Saturday and then Sunday.

There is Grade 1 action at Ascot in the Ascot Chase and an excellent undercard of supporting races including the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase and the Listed Swinley Chase.

There’s also a good card at Haydock with feature races being the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle and a likely competitive Grand National Trial Handicap Chase. Ai Wincanton it’s the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle with the likes of Song For Someone and Goshen among the entries.

On Sunday, we have the rescheduled Betfair’s Super Saturday’ Newbury card and of course the big betting race of the weekend the Betfair Hurdle. There’s no Altior in the Game Spirit Chase but he’s been replaced by stablemate Champ who had been expected to run in the Denman Chase on the card.

You can see the best of the weekend’s action on ITV. The broadcaster will be covering the best of the action from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday as part of a seven race programme and also action from Newbury & Market Rasen on Sunday.

All in all, a cracking weekend ahead and even better its’ going to be run in spring like temperatures. Back to today there’s a competitive 3m 1f handicap chase at Catterick (2:15) which is the pick of Tuesday’s action.

Catterick

2:15 – Informateur heads the market and the 8-year-old took advantage of Birchdale unseating his rider when winning a beginners’ chase here over 2m 3f. He improved further when finishing 2nd of 7 at Carlisle on his handicap chase debut. He was only beaten a neck there, on heavy ground, and can race off the same mark here. First run beyond 2m 6f but he should stay and he comes into the race in better form than most. Trainer Sue Smith has saddled the last three winners of the race.

Ask Paddy goes well at Catterick with form figures 21115. All three wins have come over C&D so he’s got to be respected returned to his favourite venue and on soft ground that suits. This is a better race than he normally contests though and you would like to see the yard in better form.

Ibis Du Rheu is the most interesting runner. Very useful when with Paul Nicholls, won the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016. Made his debut for Richard Hobson when an encouraging 5th of 8 at Kempton 38-days ago. That was his first start for 637-days so he should strip fitter here and the return to 3m 1f should be more to his liking. Trainer is 5-12 42% +10.13 with his runners here in the past 5-years.

You can never rule out a Venetia Williams runner at Catterick. Didero Vallis is back down to his last winning mark and looks capable of big run if returning to his best form. He finished runner-up in last season’s Rowland Meyrick. Not much sparkle on his three starts this season, was sent off 5/1 favourite for the Grand Sefton at Aintree, but must fully prove his stamina for 3m for me.

Verdict: The unexposed Informateur must prove he stays 3m+ but if he does, he looks the likely winner. Ibis Du Rheu is interesting on his second start for Richard Hobson and rates the selection.

1pt win – Ibis Du Rheu – 13/2 @ William Hill & Sky Bet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The recent disappointing run continued yesterday but hopefully we can turn things around today.

It’s good to see Warwick’s excellent ‘Kingmaker’ card being rescheduled for today. Besides Allmankind and Sky Pirate taking each other on in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (2:50). We also have Grade 1 winning mare Paul’s Saga coming over from France for the Mares’ Listed Hurdle (3:25). However, from a betting perspective it’s the handicaps that interest me most. None more so than the 2m 4f Class 2 handicap chase (3:55) which has attracted a very competitive field.

Normally Monday’s a write off as far as quality racing is concerned. Today is an exception to the rule.  In addition to the Warwick card, we also have two Class 2 handicaps on Wolverhampton’s evening card.

Warwick

3:55 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f

Smarty Wild won at Kempton last time. He’s 7lb higher here but has the potential to rate higher. If he’s jumping holds up, he won’t be far away. Richard Johnson opts for the 7-year-old ahead of stablemate Gala Ball.

Admiral’s Secret has become a reformed character, winning his last three starts over fences, including one this season. All three of those wins came right-handed, so the 10-year-old must show he’s as good going this way around. Jockey Alan Johns has struck up a good partnership with the horse with form figures 22111.

Two For Gold won a Grade 2 novices chase here over 3m last season. He’s also run well on two of his three starts this season and wasn’t suited by good ground when pulling up in the Ladbroke Trophy two starts back. Last time shaped much better when 3rd of 11 to Double Shuffle at Kempton again over 3m. The first time cheekpieces look an interesting addition for his drop back in trip. Goes well on soft ground with form figures 41112.

Mister Whitaker has a touch of class as he showed when finishing 3rd of 23 behind Simply The Betts at Cheltenham Festival. This is his first start since being well beaten in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby 107-days ago and connections may have one eye on the Festival again.

Top weight Aso is on a losing run that dates to January 2019 but he did finish runner-up to Frodon in the Ryanair Chase that season. He’s not been at that level of form since but has now dropped 3lb below his last winning mark. The 11-year-old goes well on rain softened ground and would be a danger to all if bouncing back to his best.

Verdict: Not often you get as good a handicap chase on a Monday as this. The thirteen runners have won 33 races between them over fences. Two For Gold needs the cheekpieces to have the desired effect on this drop back in trip. Smarty Wild is getting better with racing over fences and his jumping was better when winning at at Kempton last time. Admiral’s Secret seems to be a reformed character. Return to 2m 4f is a positive and although he’s 6lb higher in a slightly deeper race he’s one for the shortlist.

1pt win – Smarty Wild – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Admiral’s Secret – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

There are also a couple of big field handicap hurdles at Warwick to consider and one handicap at Wolverhampton.

Warwick

2:20 – Orkan showed a good attitude to win at Wetherby 51-days ago. He’s only been raised 4lb for that win and shouldn’t be far away again for a yard among the winners.

Jaisalmer won a C&D handicap (soft) last January. He’s only 1lb higher here and he’s got each way claims at a big price.

1pt win – Orkan – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Jaisalmer – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:30 – Ballymillsy has just had the three starts over hurdles. The 5-year-old put in a career best effort when 2nd of 15 to Paddys Motorbike at Huntingdon back in December. He looked a stayer at Huntingdon and should relish this marathon 3m 2f on his handicap debut.

Wolverhampton

6:30 – Al Muffrih won Redcar’s Zetland Gold Cup, off today’s mark, when trained by William Haggas. Now with Stuart Williams. He shaped like a return to today’s distance would suit when a staying 4th of 7 here last week.

1pt win – Al Muffrih – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hopefully Punchestown & Exeter can race on Sunday. Punchestown should be ok but Exeter still must survive a morning inspection. Parts of the Exeter track remained frozen yesterday after five days freezing weather despite the rise in temperature.

Sunday is the new Saturday as far as I’m concerned and Monday is the new Sunday so here we go.

The feature race of a seven-race card at Punchestown is the marathon Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (4:30).

Punchestown

3:30 – Shar Whats Therush came from off the pace to finish 3^rd of 14 at Fairyhouse over 2m 7f 29-days ago. It was a career best on RPR’s from the 8-year-old and today’s extra furlong should suit. Looks to have a favourites chance.

Smiths Girl was another who posted a career best on her last start. The mare is less experienced than most in the field, having just the had the five starts. Stamina for today’s 3m must be proven but she could be suited by it and looks capable of more improvement.

1pt win – Smiths Girl – 8/1 @ Bet365

4:30 – Punchestown Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m 4f

Five of the 18 declared runners are trained by Gordon Elliott and three by Joseph O’Brien.

Of the Elliott five the pair that interest me most are Dounkios & Roaring Bull. The first named won this race off 7lb higher two years ago. He’s been regressive since that win but does get the first time cheekpieces here and if they were to see a bounce back to form, he would be well handicapped. Jack Kennedy opts for last seasons Paddy Power Handicap Chase winner Roaring Bull who finished runner-up in the Troytown Handicap in November. The 8-year-old hasn’t really built on that performance on three subsequent runs though.

Joseph O’Brien saddles Smoking Gun, Thermistocles & High Sparrow. All three have claims. Hugo Morgan takes off a valuable 5lb off Smoking Gun but he did pull up in the Thyestes Handicap Chase last time and may not want this stamina test. Thermistocles looks the best of his trio. The 9-year-old won at 3m over hurdles and has only had three starts over fences, winning a beginners’ chase at Thurles back in March. One run this season came when 5^th of 17 over hurdles at Naas 14-days ago which should have put him spot fitness wise.

Midnight Maestro was an impressive winner at Leopardstown over Christmas that followed on from a really encouraging run at Fairyhouse and the move to Enda Bolger yard, appears to have done the trick. He’s been raised 9lb for his last win but can improve for the step up to 3m 4f. Trainer seems unsure about the trip on heavy ground which is understandable. The choice of Mark Walsh who will be riding at his minimum weight of 10-2.

The Big Dog will be ridden by top amateur Jamie Codd. He’s got some decent form around Punchestown and his novice chase form this season gives him a good chance. A mark of 136 is no gift for his handicap chase debut if he improves for the step up in trip won’t be far away.

Nick Lost returned from a 668-day absence to finish 3^rd of 12 at Thurles 18-days ago. He can improve for that run but the ‘bounce factor’ could come into play and I’m not sure he wants the ground as testing as it’s likely to be here.

Screaming Colours has very solid handicap chase around three miles here on his last two starts. He steps up in trip here but shapes like a marathon trip in the mud will suit. Needs to jump better than he did here last time though.

Discordantly was only 9/1 for the Thyestes but only got as far as the second where he unseated his rider. Respected off his present mark but the form of the Jessica Harrington yard is a concern.

Se Mo Laoch has a good record at Punchestown, having won twice over fences at the venue. The 1—year-old wasn’t disgraced when 6th in last seasons Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter and made a promising return to action over hurdles when 2^nd of 18 here in December. The first-time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and he won when first tried in cheekpieces. Has a nice light weight here and can go well.

Verdict: Previous race winner Dounkios has looked regressive but is temptingly handicapped if the first time cheekpieces work. Midnight Maestro and The Big Dog deserve their positions at the head of the betting with a slight preference for the former who will win or finish well down the field. Se Mo Laoch has solid form at the track and has a good chance off a light weight. Whilst the unexposed Thermistocles could be the pick of the Joseph O’Brien trio.

1pt win – Midnight Maestro – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Se Mo Laoch – 12/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Exeter

I have had look at two of the competitive handicaps at Exeter.

3:40 – Racing TV On Sky 426 Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) – 3m

Eleven have been declared for this first qualifiers of the Veterans Chase series.

Yaltari third in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novice Chase at Ascot two seasons ago has dropped to a mark 12lb lower than for that performance. He’s improved with each start this season and last time out finished 4^th off 11 at Ascot 22-days ago. A reproduction of his best would make the 10-year-old hard to beat in his first veterans’ chase.

Bobo Mac finished third to subsequent Welsh Grand National winner Secret Reprieve two starts back and was disgraced when 6^th of 18 in the Welsh Grand National last time. He made a mistake three out that day and would have probably have challenged for the places but for that error.

Late Romantic won at Haydock two starts back and ran well to finish 5^th of 13 in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. This is easier but he is 5lb higher than for his last win.

West Approach isn’t the most consistent but he’s got winning chase form at Exeter & Cheltenham and he did run Frodon to 1 ½ lengths at Cheltenham back in October. Two disappointing runs have followed but the Colin Tizzard yard is in better form now and the 11-year-old can’t be totally dismissed if on a going day.

4:10 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m 7f

Last year’s surprise Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar carries top-weight here on his first start since a wind-op. He’s been well beaten on both starts this season but if the wind-op has had the desired effect he can’t be ruled out.

Brinkley was impressive and strong at the finish when winning on his second start in handicap company at Wincanton 24-days ago. That win came over an extended 2m 5f but he should improve for the step up to 3m. Yard going through a quiet spell but the 6-year-old must be on high on the shortlist.

Southfield Harvest won a 3m maiden hurdle at Ludlow (soft) 12 months ago and ran well when runner-up in a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton last time. Unexposed in handicap company and the 7-year-old is open to further improvement back over 3m.

Ask Dillion has been running well in soft ground staying handicaps on his last three starts but the 8-year-old has gone up 5lb for not winning.

Does He Know won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham two starts back but the ran out in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle 47-days ago. Shapes like 3m will suit for his handicap debut and gets the first-time hood here which doesn’t look a positive nor does very testing ground.

Champagne Platinum didn’t look a natural on his four starts over fences last season and looked a lot happier when 3^rd of 12 at Newbury over hurdles on his seasonal return in November. Three miles should suit the 7-year-old and he’s a contender for sure.

Agrapart isn’t as good as good as he used to be but the 2018 Cleeve Hurdle winner wasn’t disgraced when 4^th of 12 at Cheltenham 65-days ago. Soft ground and a strong pace will suit the 10-year-old who has claims.

Palmers Hill disappointed on his chase debut at Taunton 66-days ago. Prior to that the 8-year-old had returned from 461-day break to finish a neck 2^nd of 17 at Kempton last February. Not the easiest to keep sound but a big field suits and he’s only had five runs over hurdles. Might be better on a slightly sounder surface but Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 5lb and he needs to run well to get into the final.

Tommy Rapper won over fences first time up last season and can go well fresh. Ran well to get within 4 ½ lengths of stablemate Aux Ptits Soins in a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Aintree in April 2019. He relished the mud over hurdles and he hasn’t had many runs beyond 2m 5 ½ f.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance here. Lisnagar Oscar is the Grade 1 winner running in a handicap but it won’t be easy to give weight away to unexposed rivals like Champagne Platinum, Palmers Hill, Southfield Harvest and Brinkley.

1pt win – Champagne Platinum – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Palmers Hill – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Warwick fell to the weather yesterday so we are left with the worst Saturday of racing for a long time. ITV aren’t giving up though they are covering four races from Lingfield’s all-weather card and four from Naas as part of an eight race programme. However, both tracks must survive morning inspections to see if racing can go ahead. The milder weather is heading in and fingers are firmly crossed that Exeter and Punchestown are able to race on Sunday.

After yesterday’s lame efforts at Dundalk maybe I should take the day off but if ITV can do it, so can I.

Lingfield

3:10 – Avorisk Et Perils is the suggestion in this 1m 2f handicap. Both the mares career wins have come here, including one over C&D. She can now race off the same mark as for her last C&D win and wasn’t totally disgraced when a close-up 5^th of 12 over C&D last month. The mare didn’t get the best of runs inside the final furlong. If she did, she would have finished even closer than she did. A strong pace will suit and she can go close if she gets one.

1pt win – Avorisk Et Perils – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – Real Estate gained a hat trick of wins last winter, including C&D and was only beaten neck into second over C&D last June. He can race off 1lb lower here. Returned from a 196-day break when 5^th of 6 here 17-days ago. Trainer is among the winners and the 6-year-old shouldn’t be far away here.

1pt win – Real Estate – 7/1 @ Bet365

Naas

2:15 – The first of two handicaps being covered by ITV. It looks tougher than the second and there’s actually three that I like.

Top-weight Ask Nile is on a long losing run but he often runs well in much better races than this. He was only beaten a neck at Kilbeggan last August and put in an even better performance when third in the Mayo National at Ballinrobe a month later. He returned from a 62-day break with another decent effort when 6th of 17 at Leopardstown over an inadequate 2m 1f on Boxing Day. Given his overall profile he’s more an each-way contender.

Drumacoo returned from 273-day break to win over hurdles at Listowel back in September before running well for a long way and travelling best of all coming to three out, in a better race again over hurdles when 6^th of 13 at Navan 57-days ago. The 12-year-old hasn’t run very often over the larger obstacles of late but his handicap mark of 121 looks workable.

The Echo Boy looked a chaser worth following when making all to win a Fairyhouse beginners chase (2m 5f) back in November. Ran poorly here when last of six in December on his last start. Handicap chase debut today off a fair mark although the trainer has gone 23 runners and 60-days since he last saddled a winner.

Verdict: Ask Nile’s profile doesn’t shout winner but the top-weight can surely get into the places. Drumacoo went well for a long way last time over hurdles and looks on a good mark back over fences. The Echo Boy is surely better than he was able to show last time and is interesting on his handicap chase debut. Rather than leave one of them out I’m going in with all three at the prices available.

1pt each way – Ask Nile – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Drumacoo – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Echo Boy – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:25 – Unlike the previous handicap there’s only a couple I really like here and one is Royal Rhythm. The 5-year-old has only had the five starts over hurdles and last time put in a career best on RPR’s when 3^rd of 16 at Fairyhouse last month. Drops back to 2m here but that looks a positive, as does the fact that trainer Philip Rothwell had a winner on Monday.

Djasek ran well to finish 2^nd of 10 at Fairyhouse last time. Nudged up 2lb for that run but the 5-year-old goes well on testing ground and looks capable of winning a handicap hurdle like this. The yard has had a couple of winners on the all-weather of late which is another positive.

Verdict: Djasek is probably the right favourite and sure to be popular with punters after his last run. However, the suggestion is the lightly raced Royal Rhythm on the drop back in trip.

1pt win – Royal Rhythm – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John