Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

Two-day meetings at both Newbury and Doncaster get under way on Friday and although it looks one of the weakest weekends of the winter jumps season quality wise. We are in the “pre-Cheltenham fallow period” and if the field sizes hold up the racing remains competitive and still offers plenty of good betting opportunities.

All the Cheltenham trials are done and dusted and now it’s time for the Aintree hopefuls to put in final preparations for next month’s meeting. At Doncaster the feature race is Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3.30) at Doncaster. There’s also a decent card at Newbury with the highlights being another Veterans Series Handicap Chase Qualifier (1:15) and the Greatwood Gold Cup (1:50).

The best meeting of the weekend though is up at Kelso. The Scottish track plays host to a bumper eight race card with some good prize money on offer. The feature race of the card is a competitive looking Morebattle Handicap Hurdle (2.40).  The ITV cameras are covering four races form Kelso as well as the best of the action from Doncaster & Newbury, as part of nine race programme.

No joy yesterday so I’m going to Newbury and Doncaster to regain the winning thread.

Newbury

Heavy showers at Newbury means the firm has gone out of the going description and it’s back to good to soft, good in places.

3:00 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Handicap Chase (For The Geoffrey Gilbey Trophy) (Class 3) – 2m ½ f

The slight ease in the ground will suit previous C&D winner Defi Sacre who has eased back to a winnable mark. He came up against a couple of progressive rivals when 3^rd of 9 at Musselburgh 27-days ago. It was a joint career best effort from the 8-year-old and if there is some soft in the going description he can win again.

Shut The Box ran Funambule Sivola to ½ length over C&D on just his second start over fences two starts back and ran well when 3^rd of 13 in a “Jumpers’ bumper” at Kempton 22-days ago. A sound surface suits and the 7-year-old looks on a good mark back over fences.

Verdict: Shut The Box is on a good mark and looks a worth favourite. However, I’m going with Defi Sacre. He might be vulnerable to any improvers in the field but is back down to a winnable mark and the yard has it’s horses in the winners.

1pt win – Defi Sacre – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Outonpatrol returned from a 291-day break to win a Warwick handicap hurdle (good) back in September. The mare also went on run well on her two subsequent starts in the autumn. Returns from a 113-day break here and today’s sounder surface will be in her favour. First run beyond an extended 2m 5 ½ f under rules but she did win a point over 3m (good) so has a decent chance of staying 3m.

Howling Milan’s four best RPR’s have come at Newbury. He was three lengths clear and looked set to win here last December, off 3lb higher, and finished 2^nd of 16 over C&D 12-days ago.  Can race off the same mark and capable of going close here although he did have a hard race last time.

1pt win – Howling Moon – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:10 – Song Of The Hunter & Guernesey were second & third at Warwick 18-days ago.  The former finished 3 ½ lengths ahead that day but at the revised weights there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Over this slightly longer trip and at the prices I think Guernesey can reverse placings with his old rival here.

1pt win – Guernesey – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Doncaster

4:30 – Normandy Soldier – Shaped with promise when 4^th of 11 on his chase debut at Taunton back in November. All the fences had been omitted in the back straight that day due to low sun and the race developed into a sprint for home coming to the third last. Never got involved on his next start at Exeter but it was very testing that day. A sounder surface and a decently run race should see a much better run from the 7-year-old who gets a first-time tongue tie and cheekpieces and looks on a decent mark. It will be interesting to see if there is any market support for him today.

1pt win – Normandy Soldier – 11/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have written a couple more Cheltenham Festival race previews in my Thursday Daily Punt column. There are no selections up yet but you may find the previews interesting. You will of course be the first to get them when I post them up.

There’s a decent card at Ludlow this afternoon. And it’s to the Shropshire track that I head to in search of a winner.

Ludlow

2:05 – Wandrin Star won a good ground Wincanton handicap chase first time up last season. He also put in a cracking effort first time up this season when finishing a head 2nd of 11 at Ascot (soft) back in November. Very disappointing when only 6th of 8 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby last time but has been given a 68-day break to freshen him up. If it has, he’s got a good chance of getting into the money.

Calipso Collonges was a four-length runner-up in this race two years ago and is 2lb lower this time around. On a losing run of nine but was a good 3^rd of 7 behind Deise Aba 26-days ago. Seems ground versatile and shouldn’t far away in this company.

As You Like is a good ground horse, all five chase wins have come on good, so wouldn’t want the going to ease any further. He has dropped down to 2lb below his last winning mark though and could be ready to strike when the ground is really in his favour.

Nicky Henderson saddles Valtor & Champagne Mystery. The former has become well handicapped but he’s run poorly on all three starts this season.

Champagne Mystery is the more of the interesting of the Henderson pair. He was a decent novice chaser last season winning at Aintree on his chase debut before finishing runner-up to the likes of Dashel Drasher and Greaneteen. The 7-year-old fell early in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on his seasonal return and was pulled up at Sandown (heavy) 26-days ago. Needs to jump better here but is on a very workable mark when it all clicks.

Verdict: Wandrin Star is probably best after a decent break and won’t far away if reproducing his best form. Champagne Mystery needs to jump better than he has done on either start this season but is a winnable mark and maybe worth a saver.

1pt win – Wandrin Star – 6/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Champagne Mystery – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Mon Lino finished a respectable third at Gowran Park to land the each-way bet. No damage done to the betting bank and a small profit banked. Today’s sole selection runs at Kempton.

Kempton

4:45 – I tipped up Al Muffrih when he ran at Wolverhampton 16-days ago. He didn’t run too badly when 4th of 8, beaten 1 ¾ length. He was a shade keen on the outside and did well to finish as close as he did. He’s improved with each of his three starts since joining Stuart Williams, Up ½ furlong in distance will suit, both his career wins have come at 1m 2f when trained by William Haggas. Of even more benefit to his chance would be a good even gallop.

1pt win – Al Muffrih – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Gowran Park

3:20 – The form of the Paul Nolan yard is a bit of a concern but I’m going with the Mon Lino here. The 9-year-old is on a losing run that dates back two years but he’s on an attractive mark on his best form. Runner-up over hurdles at Clonmel back in November, before pulling up back over fences. He returned to form back over the smaller obstacles when 2nd of 20 at Navan last month. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb and he will do for me each way.

1pt each way – Mon Lino – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The service managed to end up with a small profit over the weekend with Bythesametoken (BOG 25/1) finishing an agonisingly close second at Naas yesterday.

I’m not anticipating many selections this week although I do have some for today. Over the next few days I will be looking ahead to the Cheltenham Festival.  So, watch your inboxes for those and any selections.

Before all that. Here are today’s selections from Punchestown and Ayr.

Punchestown

4:00 – Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) – 3m

There’s two I like here.

Milliner, a maiden hurdle winner here back in October 2018 shaped with some promise when 5^th of 20 at Navan (2m 4f) 31-days ago.  That was the 8-year-old’s first start for 762-days so he’s entitled to come on for that run. Doing his best work at the finish that day there’s every chance that he will stay 3m and is high on the shortlist.

Dalton Highway, a useful staying handicapper on the flat, is relatively unexposed over hurdles, just the six starts and won a Leopardstown handicap hurdle (2m 4 ½ f) off 9lb lower in December 2019. Not at that level of form here 60-days ago and not sure to say 3m on heavy but looks capable of a good run for a top yard.

1pt win – Milliner – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Dalton Highway – 8/1 @ Bet365

5:00 – Four Horsemen left his previous from well behind when 3^rd of 15 at Thurles on his handicap hurdle debut two weeks ago. The 7-year-old is relatively lightly raced over hurdles, just the five starts. Whilst the drop back to 2m 4f may not be a positive, was staying on over 2m 7f last time, he can win of his present mark if building on his last race promise.

Ayr

3:05 – Reivers Lad a recent eyecatcher in my Daily Punt column. A winner on his chase debut at Newcastle in December 2018. The 10-year-old clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound, as that Newcastle win came off 614-day layoff and he was returning from 772-day break, in the process of running a good race when falling whilst in the lead five out at Haydock 37-days ago. This was the veterans first start in handicap chase company and if none the worse for this mishap figures on a good mark. Not an exciting price though.

1pt win – Reivers Lad – 15/8 @ Bet365

3:40 – Billy Ray – A decent enough staying flat handicapper when with Mick Channon. Yet to win on his six start over hurdles but was backed like he was a winnable mark when returning from wind surgery and a 103-day break when 2^nd of 18 at Wetherby 12-days ago. First time cheekpieces are applied today and provided he didn’t have to hard a race last time, can go close here.

1pt win – Billy Ray – 100/30 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I thought my poor run was going to continue but thankfully the day was saved by Clondaw Castle who showed he stayed 3m well when winning the Close Brothers Handicap Chase at an early priced advised 10/1.

The best race this side of the Irish Sea on Sunday is Fontwell’s Grade 2 Loch Lomond Whiskies National Spirit Hurdle (3:10). Just six go to post with McFabulous heading the market at a shade of odds on. The drying ground will suit and the 7-year-old who will take some beating here.  

Over the Irish Sea at Naas there’s a decent card. The two best races are the two first on the eight-race card. In the Grade 3 WhatOddsPaddy? Chase (2:00), Cilaos Emery must give 9lb to the improving Daly Tiger. The most interesting race at Naas is the 2m 4 ½ f novices’ handicap chase (2:30). It’s only attracted seven runners which given the prize money on offer to the winner is a little disappointing. That said despite the small field it’s still a competitive race. There are also two big field handicap hurdles later in the card.

Naas

2:30 – Paddy Power “From The Horse’s Mouth” Podcast Novice Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m 4 ½ f

Just the seven are set to go post but its an interesting race nonetheless.

School Boy Hours has yet to win any of his six starts over fences but seems likely to head the betting. Although he’s yet to win over the larger obstacles he did run Latest Exhibition to two lengths on his seasonal return and last time ran subsequent Grade 3 winner Eklat De Rire to 3 ½ lengths at Punchestown 82-days ago. That latter run came over an extended 3m 1f and he takes a big drop in trip.

Enjoy D’allen has improved to win his last two starts at Fairyhouse & Thurles. He’s been raised 9lb but I don’t think we have seen the best of this 7-year-old just yet. He goes very well on heavy ground and can go close.

Defi Bleu makes his handicap chase debut after three starts in beginners’ races. He looked a non-stayer over 3m at Navan last time so the drop back in distance should suit and the first-time tongue tie has been added today.

Fully Charged, hails from the very much inform Henry De Bromhead yard. The 7-year-old is 0-4 since going over fences but he put in a career best effort on RPR’s when 2^nd of 14 over C&D on his handicap chase debut. He’s been nudged up 4lb for that effort but looks capable of winning off his new mark.

Ministerofsport has yet to win after 14 starts over fences but he’s run plenty of good races and a plenty of stinkers too. His two best RPR’s have come here at Naas and he was also 5^th in last years race. As a 10-year-old, he’s clearly vulnerable to younger, improving rivals but he’s well handicapped if on a going day.

Verdict: An intriguing race despite the small field. School Boy Hours will surely win over fences sooner rather than later and looks interesting on his handicap chase debut. Enjoy D’allen comes into the race looking for the hat trick and could be capable of better. Fully Charged brings solid C&D form into the race and comes from an inform yard.

1pt win – Fully Charged – 13/2 @ Coral

5:00 – Paddy’s Rewards Club Handicap Hurdle – 1m 7 ½ f

Aarons Day won this race last season off 13lb lower. He was left at the start back over C&D on his return to action last month. Given what happened at the start of the race he did remarkably well to finish 2^nd of 17. The handicapper has raised him 4lb but that shouldn’t stop 7-year-old, if he’s in the same form here.

The favourite does face some interesting rivals. Non more so than Light Brigade. The 5-year-old won on his third attempt over hurdles when winning a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle last month. Long odds on that day. It looked like he would go onto win comfortably when leading at the last but he idled on the run in and held on by a ½ length. Handicap debut here and capable of better and is likely to be one of Charles Byrnes last runners before starting his six-month ban.

Bythesametoken’s form figures in 2m handicap hurdles on soft/soft to heavy ground are 1414. He finished fourth in this last year, 2 ½ lengths behind Aarons Day and gets a 5lb pull here. A winner at Tipperary in October, off 7lb lower, before finishing 4^th of 18 at Navan 19-days later. Has been off for 112-days so fitness must be taken on trust but he’s got each way claims if fully tuned up.

Wolfofallstreets was in good form last winter winning three of his four starts in handicap hurdles between November & March, including over C&D. Has struggled this season but finished just a length behind Bythesametoken in the Navan race. Has run poorly on two subsequent starts over fences and hopes are pinned on the first time cheekpieces having the desired effect on the 7-year-old.

Verdict: Aarons Day was unlucky last time and could be well handicapped. Hard to say whether Light Brigade is well treated for his handicap debut but he’s lightly raced and open to more improvement. Bythesametoken and Wolfofallstreets are closely matched on their running at Navan back in November and have each way claims.

1pt each way – Bythesametoken – 20/1 @ Coral (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Not quite a Super Saturday this week. However, we do have a ‘last-minute’ Cheltenham Trials’ meeting at Kempton with a clutch of Grade 2 races: The Close Brothers Pendil Novices’ Chase (1:50), Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (2:25), the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (3:00) and all three races could contain pointers for next month’s Festival.  There also the Grade 3 Close Brothers Handicap Chase (3:35). Formerly the Racing Post Chase. The races quality has declined in recent seasons but this year’s entries suggest we should see a decent line up.

Up in the North East, it’s the marathon Vertem sponsored Eider Handicap Chase (3:15) at Newcastle. For all all-weather fans it’s one of the highlights of the winter with the latest running of Lingfield’s Winter Derby (2:40) and there’s also the Listed 5f Hever Stakes (2:05). Both Lingfield races are being covered by ITV, along with the Eider Chase from Newcastle and the best of the action from Kempton.

The ground is drying out around the country more and more with each passing day and at the time of writing Kempton’s going is currently being described as good, good to soft in places and I have feeling there won’t be much good to soft come race time.  Even at Newcastle its dried out and is now soft, good to soft in places.

Given so much of the winter action has taken place on soft or worse ground. It’s going to be interesting to see if the form is over turned in the coming weeks.

Last week was great for the service, this week not so good. It’s not going to be a busiest weekend for me on the betting front although I have had a good look at today’s big handicaps at Kempton and Newcastle and there’s likely to be a selection or two on Sunday.

Let’s begin this preview at Kempton with a race not being covered by ITV.

Kempton

1:15 – Close Brothers Asset Finance Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5f

Gunsight Ridge won a good ground novice hurdle at Doncaster back in November. The 6-year-old returned from a 53-day break finishing 2^nd of 15 on his handicap hurdle debut. The winner went in again at Newbury on Sunday so the form is solid. Good ground suits and the step should also be a positive for a former 3m point winner.  

Hometown Boy won on his handicap hurdle debut last season and then improved on that form when finishing runner-up to McFabulous back at the same venue. Off for 350-days but if fully wound up has place claims.

Tedham looks on a decent mark based on his best form last seasonbut probably needs 3m to be seen at his best.

Major Dundee a former good ground bumper winnerhas only had four starts over hurdles. He’s returned this season with two runner-up efforts at Warwick & Doncaster. Back from a 60- day absence and on his handicap debut here. Trainer Alan King won this in 2017 and Major Dundee looks to have a good chance of giving the trainer another winner of the race.

Verdict: Tedham is on a good mark but probably needs 3m. Gunsight Ridge is a possible improver for the step up to 2m 5f and will like the good ground. However, preference is for handicap debutant Major Dundee who looks a decent price at the 13/2 available with Bet365.

1pt win – Major Dundee – 13/2 @ Bet365

The clutch of Grade 2 races on the Kempton card have not grabbed my attention betting wise. The Pendil Novices’ Chase (1:50) has only attracted four runners. The two other Grade 2 are much more interesting.

2:25 – The Adonis Juvenile Hurdle sees the Alan King trained Tritonic looks to boast his Triumph Hurdle claims with a win here. There are several runners making their hurdle debuts here. Paul Nicholls saddles Paso Doble who is having his first start for the trainer since moving from Jim Bolger. Dan Skelton also saddles a newcomer in John Locke who is having his first start since joining from Ralph Beckett. It will be interesting to see how both Paso Doble & John Locke fare here but they would have to be smart to beat Tritonic.

3:00 – The Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle has a smart looking Atholl Street heading the market. The Paul Nicholls trained 6-year-old is unbeaten on both starts over hurdles and looks a good prospect.  It will take a good one to beat him here. He faces a couple of interesting rivals though in Irish raider Cape Gentlemen & Calico. The former looked a smart hurdles prospect when winning at Punchestown on his hurdling debut. The Irish Cesarewitch winner ran no sort of race when pulling up in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, something was amiss that day and he’s surely a better horse than he was able to show at Leopardstown.  Calico a smart performer on the flat when trained in Germany made a winning debut for Dan Skelton over hurdles at Ludlow last month. He could be smart prospect over hurdles and can go well here given the yard’s present form.

3:35 – Close Brothers Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m

This year’s renewal looks a competitive one and it’s attracted a larger than average number of 18 runners.

Cap Du Nord finished runner-up to Royale Pagaille over C&D at the Christmas Meeting and then finished third in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. Slight concern that might be better over slightly shorter than 3m but the drying ground is in the 8-year-old’s favour.

Al Dancer a good third in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase back in November before flopping when 5/1 favourite for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup back at the same venue. He’s yet to race beyond 2m 5f but he shapes like he will stay 3m.

Clondaw Castle has improved for stepping up 2m 4f in the past 12 months. Winning at Warwick last February and started this season with an excellent 2^nd of 12 in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree on his seasonal return. He then went on to win at Newbury (good). Stepped back into Graded company when 3^rd of 8 in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase before finishing runner-up to Master Tommytucker here last time. A mark of 154 will be tough to defy and he needs the step up to 3m to bring out a bit more improvement.

Slate House won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over C&D last December. Form slumped after that success but his 3^rd of 6 at Wincanton last month was a step back in the right direction. Return to 3m will suit but his jumping needs to be a lot better than it has been.

Talkischeap was pulled up in this race last year. The 2019 Bet365 Gold Cup winner had had just two starts since this race last year, one on the flat at Southwell and then when third in a “Jumpers bumper” at Lingfield 26-days ago. Good ground suits the 9-year-old who is being aimed at the Grand National.

Young Wolf is very well suited to good ground and hasn’t finished out of the first two over fences on such going. Untested in this class of race or in a big field but he’s on a competitive mark and is 5-7 racing 3m+.

Black Corton finished runner-up in this race last year off 1lb higher. The normally solid jumper has failed to complete on his last two starts but the cheekpieces he wore last time have been removed. He’s been given a 78-day break to freshen up and the consistent 10-year-old can never be ruled out on good ground. A reproduction of last year’s effort gives him solid each way claims.

Fingerontheswitch is another well suited to a sound surface. He won over C&D last January and improved further to put in a career best effort when beaten just ½ length into second in the Sky Bet Chase, off today’s mark. Two poor efforts this season from the 11-year-old but those came on soft & heavy so his chance here rests on a return to better ground.

Mellow Ben took advantage of an easing handicap mark when bouncing back to form in finishing third behind Cap Du Nord (good) at Newbury two starts back. The 8-year-old looks well weighted with Cap Du Nord on that Newbury form. He well behind that one when fourth over C&D last time but the going was soft that day and all his career wins have come on good ground, as have his three best RPR’s. Yet to win beyond 2m 5 ½ f but he’s on a good mark and is another with each way claims.

Verdict: A few in with a chance here. Black Corton and Fingerontheswitch are C&D winners who will like the return today’s good ground. Young Wolf steps up in class but is another with each way claims on ground that suits. Clondaw Castle should stay 3m and if he does won’t be far away. Cap Du Nord is a solid form choice but I’m still to be convinced he’s as good over 3m, as he is over slightly shorter and he will do well to finish ahead of Mellow Ben on their running at Newbury.

1pt win – Clondaw Castle – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Mellow Ben – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Newcastle

3:15 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase – 4m 1 ½ f

The Eider Chase is now the third longest race in the jumps calendar after the Grand National & Midlands Grand National.  A field of twelve are set to go post for what will be a severe stamina test, even if the ground isn’t heavy.

David Bridgewater who saddled the 2014 Eider Chase winner, lost The Conditional last Sunday so it would if he could win this with Salty Boy. The 8-year-old should relish the step up to 4m+. He’s competing for favoritism with Sams Adventure here. Sams Adventure won the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock (heavy) with Salty Boy, 6 ¼ length behind in third. There shouldn’t be too much between the pair at the revised weights. Both have solid claims but I wonder if Sams Adventure would prefer even more testing ground.

Crosspark won this two years ago but is 15lb higher this time around.  He’s returned to action this season in great form though, finishing runner-up on all four starts. He’s been beaten just a length on all four runs but has gone up 8lb for not winning. It will be a tough to defy top-weight of 11-12 and he might prefer slightly better ground.

The Dutchman a very useful handicap chaser when with Colin TIizzard, winning the valuable Peter Marsh Handicap Chase in January 2018. The 11-year-old has returned from 931- day break in good form and went very close to winning on his second start for Tristan Davidson at Haydock two starts back. Was in the process of running a big race when falling four out in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. If he stays, he can go close.

Springfield Fox looked a smart staying chaser when making all to win at Chepstow & Exeter early last year. He hasn’t built on the promise of his return over hurdles in December. The 8-year-old was never travelling and was pulled up in the Welsh Grand National (8/1) and never really got competitive at Wincanton 23-days ago. Hopes are pinned on the first time cheekpieces reviving him today and trainer Tom George’s runners are going better now. If and it’s a big if, he can get out in front, he hasn’t on either start this season over fences, he could easily bounce back to form here and if he does, I think he could win this.  

Big River is a bit of enigma. There’s no doubt he’s got the ability to win a race like this and he ticks plenty of all important boxes such as going and distance. A winner at Kelso, a bit of a course specialist six of his seven career wins have come at the Scottish venue, last January off 2lb lower. He then was a strong finishing 5^th of 23 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Just the two starts this season and he ran better than his finishing position of 8^th in the Welsh Grand National suggests on ground that was much quicker than the official going description of soft. High on the shortlist.

Strong Economy hails from the Ian Duncan yard who saddled Milborough to win this in 2015. The 9-year-old has been doing most of his running at Ayr and comes into the race on the back of two wins over fences at the Scottish venue. Looked a real stayer when winning over 3m 3f last time, now 2-5 since stepping up 3m +.  After that success his trainer nominated this race as the horse’s target. The first time cheekpieces are applied today which could be a positive, as he can get behind in his races.

Verdict: If the first-time headgear has the desired effect and he can get out to the front SpringfieldFox is a danger to all. Strong Economy is a real slow old boat. He’s won his last two and the first time cheekpieces could eke out the improvement needed to win this. Big River has the ability to land this if on a going day.

1pt each way – Strong Economy – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Big River – 15/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Less said about yesterday the better. Not for the first time I got involved in some races that I shouldn’t but I’m sure it won’t be the last time either.  Moving onto some better racing today with a couple of interesting handicap chases at Exeter, including the marathon Devon National (3:10) and at Warwick there’s a competitive Class 2 handicap chase (3:53). I have selections m both meetings.

Exeter

The going at Exeter is being described as soft.

1:30 – Dartmoor Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 3m

Last year Springfield Fox made all to win this novices’ handicap chase. This year’s renewal has attracted a small field but you can make a case for all six runners.

Hold That Thought heads the early betting. The 6-year-old has shaped well on all of three starts over fences and put in a career best on RPR’s when 2^nd of 7 at Chepstow 48-days ago. A 3lb rise in the weights for that effort is fine and he’s capable of more improvement. He’s the one to beat in what looks a tight handicap.

Highland Hunter a useful handicap hurdler was making his debut over fences in the Chepstow race. He ran well to a point that day but was booked for third when falling at the last. He’s boosted that form when winning a novices’ handicap chase at Carlisle 10-days ago. He’s got a 7lb penalty for that success and is progressive but looks held by Hold The Thought.

Welsh Saint twice a winner on heavy ground over hurdles last season. The 7-year-old was sent off 11/8 favourite for his chase debut over C&D last month but unseated his jockey at the second. Finished 3^rd of 8 in a Ffos Las novice chase 22-days ago.  Needs to improve his jumping to win but should at least be suited by the step into handicap company for the first time.

Dolphin Square finished runner-up in the C&D novice chase where Welsh Saint departed early on. The 7-year-old won his maiden hurdle here and was a very useful handicap hurdler last season. He gets the first time cheekpieces for his handicap chase debut and can’t be dismissed if finding his best hurdle form. Although he may want better ground.

Verdict: He’s not much of a price but I will be disappointed if Hold The Thought can’t win a handicap chase off his present mark.

3:10 – Dartmoor Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

Fifteen have been declared for a competitive looking renewal and is likely to be a good stamina test.

Samuel Jackson looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning over today’s trip at Taunton in March 2019. He showed a good attitude to win that day. The 9-year-old missed all last season and never got competitive on his first two this season over hurdles. The former course winner fared much better back over fences when 2^nd of 12 over an inadequate 3m here last month. He’s now 9lb below his last winning mark and has great chance back up in trip.

Special Acceptance has improved with each of his five starts over fences this season. Showed he has the stamina for today’s distance when runner-up in the Sussex National last month and showed he remained progressive when finishing runner-up at Doncaster back over 3m, 27-days ago. Nudged up 4lb for that effort but is on the upgrade and needs respecting.

Christmas In April won this 12 months ago, off 6lb lower. That makes life much tougher but he can never be ruled out in these Regional Nationals.

Dawson City won this in 2018 & 2019 but was pulled up 12 months ago.  The 12-year-old took advantage of a handy mark last month when winning the Somerset National under today’s jockey Millie Wonnacott. He’s up 5lb but remains on a good mark and given his race record has to be respected.

The Henry Daly yard has been quiet of late and could do with a winner but he’s got one here who could be on a good mark in Head To The Stars. The 10-year-old won at the ninth attempt over fences, at Ludlow (1lb higher) last February. That win came over 3m but it was stamina that won him the day at Ludlow. He’s pulled up on all three starts this though so his current well being had to be taken on trust but this is his second start since a wind-op and Richard Johnson up for the first time.

Verdict: Previous race winners Christmas In April & Dawson City must be respected. Special Acceptance remains on the upgrade. Attractively weighted Samuel Jackson comes into the race in good form and will be suited by a return to today’s distance. It’s hard to be confident about the well being of Head To The Stars, given he’s pulled on all the three starts this season, but he’s on a good mark if/when he bounces back to form.

1pt win – Special Acceptance – 6/1 @ Bet365

Warwick

The going at Warwick is soft, good to soft in places.

3:53 – Budbrooke Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f

Nine are declared for an interesting handicap chase which was won 12 months ago by Springtown Lake who bids for back-to-back victories in the race.

Precious Cargo won one of his five starts over fences last season. Winning a Haydock novice chase on debut over the larger obstacles before finishing runner-up, beaten a short head by Moonlighter on his handicap chase debut at Newbury. Didn’t have the pace to trouble Rouge Vif and Nube Negra when third in last season’s Grade 2 Kingmaker Chase here over 2m. He shaped like he needed further that day but he didn’t totally prove his stamina when falling at the last in the 2m 4f novices handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Brushed aside by Master Tommytucker on his seasonal reappearance at Huntingdon in November. First run since that day and this is also his first start since a wind-op.

Springtown Lake won this race easily, off 5lb lower. The 9-year-old made a promising return to action when runner-up to Modus at Aintree in November. Not so good over the National fences when only 5^th of 18 in the Grand Sefton back at the same venue. Probably didn’t stay 3m when well beaten last time in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Bay. Blinkers on for the first time here

Champagne Court is the most intriguing runner in the race.  The 8-year-old won his first two start over fences last season and finished 5^th behind Simply The Betts at Cheltenham and 8^th behind Imperial Aura in the novices’ handicap back there at the Cheltenham Festival. Was never travelling when pulled up in the Badger Beers Trophy Handicap Chase (6/1) at Wincanton on his seasonal reappearance and hasn’t reached last years best form on either start since. All this season’s starts have been over 2m 6f + and he didn’t stay 3m 2f at Newbury last time. Return to 2m 4f, both chase wins at around the distance, looks worth a go and the first time cheekpieces are applied. He’s now 3lb below his last winning mark.  

Verdict: I had hoped Champagne Court would be a few points bigger than a best priced 6/1 but he’s dropped down to a good mark and looks the one to be with, ahead of Precious Cargo.

1pt win – Champagne Court – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Things didn’t go to plan yesterday. Here’s hoping for better today as I go winner hunting at a lowlier level today. I have two fancies at Chepstow and Huntingdon this afternoon.

Chepstow

2:27 – Pride Of Lecale hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound and the 10-year-old has only had 11 starts under rules. He won a bumper here back in 2016 and his sole hurdle success came on his handicap debut at Market Rasen in November 2019. Returned for the first time for 433-days, here 20-days ago. He made headway into fourth, coming to the third last out that day before lack of a recent run told and he was pulled up after the second last. Sent off just 7/2 there was enough market support to think he retains a chunk of ability.  Should be fitter for his debut over fences today, off what looks a workable mark, and trainer Fergal O’Brien is among the winners.

1pt win – Pride Of Lecale – 8/1 @ Bet365

Huntingdon

3:35 – Hear The Chimes a dual course winner including C&D back in February 2019. There was a hint of promise from the 12-year-old when he finished 4^th of 14 at Catterick last time.  Doesn’t wasn’t the ground too soft, so any drying out will suit the veteran who has dropped down to an attractive mark. Yard had a winner yesterday and I think the selection has decent each way claims here provided underfoot conditions aren’t to testing.

1pt each way – Hear The Chimes – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A decent Doncaster card this afternoon with the highlight being Veterans’ chase series qualifier. There’s also a jumps card at Ludlow and all-weather action from Southwell and Kempton. Sadly, for Irish racing fans this afternoons meeting at Punchestown has been abandoned.

Doncaster  

The going is good to soft, soft in places at the track but it was dry on Tuesday with a strong wind and is set to be dry today.

I have looked at three races from Doncaster.

14:25 – Virgin Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) – 3m

Late Legend has had a busy season and has been well placed to win five of his nine starts. Won over C&D last time despite jumping to his right and although he’s been raised 8lb for his last win he might have stopped improving.

Eva’s Oscar has had three starts over fences. He’s yet to test the judge but has shown enough to think he will be suited by the step into handicap company and can go close if jumping.

Glenduff a winner of a Carlisle novice hurdle (good to soft) last season is one of the exposed horses in the field. He returned to action from an 11-month absence when well beaten 5^th of 6 on his chase debut at Musselburgh 18-days ago.  The drying ground will suit the 7-year-old as should this more galloping track.

Verdict: Bang in form Late Legend is sure to be popular. However, he’s could be vulnerable to unexposed Glenduff and Eva’s Oscar.

1pt win – Eva’s Oscar – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Glenduff – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:30 – Virgin Bet Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Leg 2 Of The Veterans’ Chase Series) (Class 2) – 3m

Fagan bounced back to form, under top-weight when winning at Newbury (heavy) 38-days ago. Up 10lb for that success but with his confidence boosted he’s capable of another big run. Jockey Kielan Woods opts for Ami Desbois today.

Ami Desbois is another coming into the race in good form. He returned from 343-day absence to finish 2^nd off 11 behind Double Shuffle at Kempton last month. Got a good positive ride that day and might well have held on to win but for a mistake at the last. Nudged up 4lb and deserves to win a race like this but his losing run does go back to December 2017.

Guitar Pete has been a grand servant to connections over the years.  He was steadily improving his position when falling four out in the Kempton race that Ami Desbois finished runner-up in.  Stamina for 3m still to be proven but the drying ground will suit the 11-year-old.

Rocky’s Treasure, a three-time winner at Doncaster, including two over C&D. The latest of those wins came two starts back when holding off the late challenge of Give Me A Copper. Probably resented the soft ground when pulling up in the Sky Bet Chase here last month. The first-time visor replaces the cheekpieces and the better the ground is a positive.  More than capable of winning this if it’s a going day.

Verdict:  Course & distance winner Rocky’s Treasure is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle. He can win this if in the mood. Guitar Pete is a big player if stays the 3m. Ami Desbois holds a Grand National entry and despite his long losing run is the pick.

1pt win – Ami Desbois – 100/30 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:05 – Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier For The Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final) (Class 3) – 3m ½ f

The lightly raced Big Bresil is sure to be popular with punters here after an excellent second at Bangor on last month’s handicap debut. First start on going better than soft but if he handles the drying ground and stays 3m he’s got a good chance.

Ashfield Paddy seemed happier returned to hurdles when 3^rd of 7 to Brinkley at Wincanton 34-days ago. A winner over 2m 7f at Exeter 12 months ago. He should get today’s slightly longer trip and Kevin Brogan takes off a handy 5lb which means he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark.

Supakalanistic a winner over 3m at Kempton last November, off 7lb lower, has been in good form in “Jumpers bumper’s” winning at Lingfield last month.  A solid dual-purpose horse who wins his share of race. The 8-year-old is vulnerable to any better handicapped rivals in the field but the better the ground the better his chance.

Verdict: Big Bresil is open to further progress, if his stamina for 3m holds out, and his yard could be about to hit form. The better ground brings the consistent Supakalanistic into the picture. However, preference is for Ashfield Paddy.

1pt win – Ashfield Paddy – 6/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John