Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

An impressive win by Double Or Bubble at Newmarket yesterday. Hopefully you were on BOG.

The Craven meeting continues today with two Group 3s: the bet365 Earl of Sefton Stakes (3.00) and the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (3.35). In the latter race C&D winner Saffron Beach takes on unbeaten filly Love Is You in a race which could provide punters with some 1,000 Guineas clues. There’s also the first of two days of competitive racing at Cheltenham.

You can watch the best of the action from Newmarket’s Craven meeting and Cheltenham on ITV this afternoon.  I have selections from both meetings but I have also looked at some of the big races where I haven’t got any picks.

Newmarket

1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Going Places has been a revelation since switching to the Archie Watson stable. Making all to win two of his three starts on the all-weather both over 7f.  Drop back to 6f, but doesn’t lack pace, and is having his first start on grass since juvenile debut in 2019. Stall 10 could be better but he will take the beating if he maintains his recent good form back on turf.

George Bowen is on a losing run that goes back over two years. The 9-year-old has dropped down to a good mark and his seasonal return when 6^th of 15 at Doncaster provides encouragement that he will be able to win again this season.

Dazzling Dan had good 3-year-old season winning over C&D and on the July Course. Not so good last season but has had wind surgery over the winter and is now 9lb below is last winning mark.

Chil Chil won a C&D nursery in 2019 and came from off the pace to win at Ascot last August. The 5-year-olds form figures on good/good to firm going are an impressive 2111. Can’t be dismissed if ready to roll on her seasonal reappearance.

Verdict: Going Places could take some stopping if as effective on turf as a synthetic surface. Chil Chil is respected if fully tuned up. Dazzling Dan is well handicapped if his recent wind-op has the desired effect.

1pt win – Dazzling Dan – 9/1 @ Bet365

2:25 – bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) – 7f

Just seven go to post for the race but you can give them all some sort of chance. There doesn’t seem to be much pace in the race. Likely favourite Naval Crown who made all to win at Meydan last time could get a solo out in front.

Aidan O’Brien brings over Ontario whose best run last year came when 2^nd of 5 in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes here over a mile last September.

Percy’s Lad a winner of his first two juvenile starts put in a career best when runner-up in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury (heavy). Better ground should suit but 7f maybe on the short side given he’s bred to appreciate 1m 2f.

Legal Attack won on his racecourse debut on the July Course last season and wasn’t disgraced when runner-up in a Group 3 at Chantilly on his next star. Proved a major disappointment when a beaten favourite at York in October. If you forgive that run, he has potential for better this season.

3:00 – bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 1f

Global Giant, an easy winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton 18-days ago and is the one to beat.  Marie’s Diamond made a winning return to action last season and he’s the only guaranteed front runner in the six strong field. He could be hard to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.

San Donato’s two best RPR’s have come first time up so a 207-day layoff isn’t a necessarily a negative. In fact, I think it’s a positive for the strong travelling 5-year-old. Yard has made a good start to the season and has a good record at this meeting.

My Oberon could be open to more progressive this season. The 4-year-old an easy winner at York last summer put in a career best effort’s on RPR’s when finishing runner-up in Group 3 contests at Goodwood & Haydock. Ran below par at Redcar (15/8 Fav) on his final start of the season but if you forget that run, he’s in the mix here.

Verdict: Global Giant has race fitness on his side and if he can reproduce his all-weather form should win this. Marie’s Diamond will be tough to peg back if getting out on his own in front. My preference is for San Donato who goes well first time up.

1pt win – San Donato – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.

3:35 – Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 7f

The bookies have got the betting right for this 1,000 Guineas trial. With the unbeaten fillies Saffron Beach and Love Is Youheading the market.

Saffron Beach is 2-2 over C&D and showed a good battling attitude to win the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes last time out. She’s reported to have thrived physically from two to three and if that’s the case she should be good enough to win this on her return.

Love Is You won the 7f Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury on her final juvenile start. It was heavy that day and good to soft when she made a winning racecourse debut at Ascot. There’s no reason why she won’t be effective on quicker ground but you don’t know until they have tried it. The daughter of Kingman had looked a smart prospect when winning at Newbury.

Tawahub is thrown in the deep end here. Another daughter of Kingman she looked useful when winning a Chelmsford in October. Look capable of winning more races as 3-year-old but would need to have improved plenty over the winter to beat the likes of Saffron Beach & Love Is You.

Verdict:  Saffron Beach is my idea of a lively outsider for the first fillies’ classic.  I have had an each-way nibble on her at 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas and the 16/1 available with Paddy Power remains value as she will be shorter, if winning here.

4:45 – Cash Out At bet365 Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 2f

Three -year-old handicaps can be tricky in the first month of the season, as you don’t know which have improved over the winter.

Mohaafeth showed he’s trained on from two to three when winning at Lingfield 26-days ago. The colt who has Dante & Derby entries makes his handicap debut off what looks a competitive mark of 85 and is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 2f.

Sir Michael Stoute seems to have his string forward. He has saddled the winner of this race in 2015 & 2019 and he relies on Just Fine who won at Sandown on his second juvenile start last season. Another bred to appreciate a step up to 1m 2f. He’s been gelded since finishing third in a York nursery debut last October and has potential for more improvement as a 3-year-old.

Cheltenham

2:05 – Ballymore Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 2) (A Limited Handicap) – 2m 4 ½ f

The Big Bite is 2-6 over fences but threw away good opportunity to win the Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury last time when hanging badly left on the run in. No issues with good ground but an undulating track like Cheltenham is a bit of an unknown for the 8-year-old.

Up The Straight has yet to win after five starts over fences but put in career best when 2^nd of 9 at Sandown last month. Looked set to win when jumping the last but he tired in the run on very testing ground. Finished 3^rd of 19 in a handicap hurdle on his only start here in October and is well suited to a sound surface. He’s handicapped to win a decent pot.

Verdict: The Big Bite looks worth taking on here with Up The Straight.

1pt win – Up The Straight – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:40 – Kingston Stud Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f

Java Point seemed to enjoy the step up to 2m 5f when winning a Warwick maiden hurdle (good) 15-days ago. Prior to that he had finished a neck 2^nd of 13 in handicap company at Newbury. Nudged up 4lb for his Warwick win but he’s unexposed at 2m 4f and is open to further progress on a sound surface.

1pt win – Java Point – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:50 – Jockey Club Cheltenham And SW Syndicate Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 3m

Encore Champs returned from almost a year off the track when 5^th of 10 at Kempton on his first start for Dan Skelton. He wasn’t subjected to hard race when his jockey realised his chance had gone in the straight. Likely needed the run at Kempton, will strip fitter today and looks like he can win races for his new yard.

Domino Effect got off the mark at the 7^th attempt over hurdles when winning a Chepstow maiden hurdle last month. The first time cheekpieces seemed to have had the desired effect that day and the 7-year-old is on the upgrade. Should be in the mix on going that suits.

Aaron Lad is another who returned from a long absence when 4^th of 8 at Newbury 19-days ago. The 10-year-old ran well for a long way and showed he retains plenty of his old ability. Has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper and the former C&D winner has each-way claims.

Verdict: Encore Champs shaped with promise on his first start for Dan Skelton and can win races of his present mark. Domino Effect is also high on the shortlist after his recent Warwick success.

1pt win – Domino Effect – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:25 – Weatherite Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 2f

Born Survivor took advantage of a handy mark on his favoured good ground when winningat Stratford 16-days ago. Up 9lb for that win but of more concern would be his stamina for 3m 2f.

At the prices it may be worth taking a chance with Enqarde travelled like a well handicapped horse when winning at Ascot in January. Up 8lb and sent off 4/1 favourite for the Grand National Trial at Haydock. He ran well for a long way but his stamina for an extended 3m 4f was stretched before fading two out. Has be a strong contender dropped back in trip if he handles the track.

Verdict: Born Survivor won’t be far away again but given there are doubts about his stamina for 3m 2f it may pay to side with Enqarde who looked progressive when winning at Ascot two starts back.

1pt win – Enqarde – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weekend ended on a profitable note with Real Appeal’s win at Leopardstown on Sunday.

The flat season moves into Classic gear this week. It started at Leopardstown on Sunday with its Guineas Trials and the action continues at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting for the next three days and then moves on to Newbury and the Curragh at the weekend.

Newmarket Craven Meeting

The feature race of day one of the Craven Meeting is bet365 Feilden Stakes (3:20). A race that Golden Horn won in 2015 on his way to Derby success. There are also three interesting looking handicaps.

2:45 – Pat Smullen Memorial Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

My of my initial fancies Dogged is now a non-runner.

Overwrite isn’t the most consistent of horses but he’s likely to get an uncontested lead and prominent runners can be hard to peg back here.

Hortzadar was right back to form when 3^rd of 18 in the Lincoln on his seasonal return. Can race off the same mark here and looks the one to beat.

Makram came from behind to win at Ascot last July. He was then slowly away and poorly placed on his next start at Sandown. Better judged on his Ascot performance than last time. Capable of better as a 4-year-old but might not be suited by today’s pace set up.

Maxi Boy was highly tried as juvenile. Just the one start last year, finishing a close-up 3^rd of 9 at Lingfield. There was plenty of promise in that Lingfield run and he looks worth a try at mile. Looks on a competitive mark and yard are among the winners.

Verdict: Makram should be able to win a race off his present mark but slight preference is for Maxi Boy.

1pt win – Maxi Boy – 5/1 – Gen

3:20 – bet365 Feilden Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 1f

Aidan O’Brien brings over Arturo Toscanini. The son of Galileo won a back end 7f Curragh maiden on heavy ground on his sole juvenile start. Today’s distance will suit as should today’s sounder surface.

New Treasure, from a yard that has won this race three times since 2015, has the best form and must be respected but is vulnerable to any unexposed types.

Youth Spirit & Fancy Man also bring good juvenile form to the race. The latter must give 3lb to the rest of the field but isn’t out of it, if he’s as effective on quicker ground.

Secret Protector improved on juvenile form when winning at Meydan in February. The quick ground should suit the son of War Front and he needs respecting.

If there is a Golden Horn in the field it’s likely to be Royal Champion, trained by Roger Varian, a winner on his sole start here over a mile last season. The son of Shamardal could be a very smart 3-year-old.

3:55 – Price Promise At bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Recent Musselburgh winner Eton College will have his supporters. As will Eastern World who ran below market expectations when 5/2 favourite in the Lincoln.

My pick here though is Double Or Bubble. Trainer Chris Wall won this race in 2017 with Mix And Mingle who is the selection full sister.  Double Or Bubble won her last two starts last season, Seasonal reappearance for the 4-year-old here but she looks a nice prospect who could be a Listed filly this season.

1pt win – Double or Bubble – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:30 – bet365.com Handicap (Class 3) – 5f

Prominent racers are usually the ones to concentrate on here over 5f.

Rewaayat might be a 6-year-old but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock. A winner first time up last season. He’s on a winnable mark and wasn’t suited by the rain softened ground when dropped to 5f at Salisbury on his final start of last season.

Illusionist can win a decent sprint handicap this season but he might need his seasonal reappearance and this run could put the 4-year-old spot on for York.

Han Solo Berger looked as good as ever when 3^rd of 5 at Kempton last week and is rated 3lb lower on grass. He should be in the mix again.  

Secretinthpark is the old man of the field at 11 but he showed last season, when beaten only ½ length over C&D on his seasonal return, that he’s still capable of being competitive in this type of race.  Back from a 114-day lay off today. Goes well on a sound surface and he won’t be far away if reproducing last seasons C&D form, off 6lb lower.

Verdict: Rewaayat is the most likely winner but at present prices is short enough for me. Han Solo Berger comes into the race in good form and Secretinthepark could run into the places at big odds.

1pt win – Han Solo Berger – 11/2 – Gen

1pt each way – Secretinthepark – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Grand National Day started off on a winning note as the well backed Hometown Boy overcame a last hurdle mistake to win the 3m handicap hurdle that opened the Aintree card. A Rule 4 of 15p chipped away at the profit but at least we broke even on the day and completed a profitable Grand National Meeting.

The best of today’s action is across the Irish Sea and It’s back to the flat after an exciting few days of jumps racing. The feature races of an eight-race card at Leopardstown are the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes (3:45) and the Group 3 1,000 Guineas Trial & Listed 2,000 Guineas Trial.

It’s set to be an informative day’s racing with plenty of interesting three-year-old’s on show.

Leopardstown

2:10 – Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f

A Case Of You heads the market.  The colt won a Group 3 at the Curragh last October over an extended 6f for previous trainer John McConnell. Returned from a five-month layoff to win at Dundalk 23-days ago on his first start Adrian McGuinness. The return to 7f should suit the son of Hot Streak who can win this if as effective on quicker ground.

A consistent juvenile Monaasib put in a career best when collared late on by Derby ante post favourite High Definition the Group 2 Beresford Stakes. Trainer has expressed concerns about the quick ground for the horse.

Poetic Flare won on the opening day of the 2019 Irish Flat season and wasn’t seen on the track again until thrown in the deep end Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. He ran green in the Dewhurst but wasn’t disgraced in finishing 10^th. Showed the benefit of that run when winning a Group 3 over C&D 7-days later. He could be a 2,000 Guineas contender if he wins and the yard won this last year.

Aidan O’Brien who has won five of the last ten renewals of the race saddles Merchant Quay, Matchless & Horoscope. All three are open to improvement as 3-year-old’s and recent Currgah winner Horoscope is the choice of Ryan Moore. The other two are making their seasonal reappearances.

2:40 – Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Group 3) -7f

Another race that Aidan O’Brien has won five times in the last ten years. He saddles Joan Of Arc, Empress Josephine & More Beautiful. The latter makes her seasonal reappearance and looks the stable third choice. Empress Josephine, a full sister to Minding, won Naas maiden on her racecourse debut 14-days ago. Joan Of Arc, a full sister to Gleneagles, battled on well to win a 7f Curragh maiden (soft to heavy) three weeks ago. On pedigree she should be suited by today’s better ground. Both fillies are open to improvement and could make up into high class fillies this year.

Interesting then that Ryan Moore opts for another Coolmore filly in Shale trained by Donnacha O’Brien. Shale was a high-class juvenile winning the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes before disappointing on soft ground in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. She must give her 14 rivals 3lb here but on the figures she’s the one they all have to beat.

My Generation trained by Joseph O’Brien left her racecourse debut behind when quickening clear inside the final furlong to win a Listed contest at Dundalk last month. Open to further improvement and given her pedigree she should be well suited by a sound surface on the grass.

No going concerns for Loch Lein who improved on her first two starts last season when winning a 6f Curragh maiden last September. Prior to that she finished runner-up Dewhurst winner St Marks Basilica. Another open to improvement on her first start at 7f.

Mehnah, a daughter of Frankel, overcame a slow start to win on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in September. Should do better as 3-year-old but may need a mile to be seen at her best as 3-year-old, her half-brother Awtaad won an Irish 2,000 Guineas. Doesn’t have the best of draws in stall 11.

Verdict: Shale is the one to beat on her juvenile form but she faces several potentially improving fillies none more so than My Generation who has race fitness on her side.

1pt win – My Generation – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

Eight are set to go to post for a race that has been won by the likes of Fascinating Rock & Harzand in the past decade.

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the last three winners of the race and he runs two in Bolshoi Ballet & Lough Derg. Bolshoi Ballet is the choice of Ryan Moore and should appreciate today’s quicker ground. A winner here over 7f last season before getting stuck in the mud in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on final start as a juvenile. Seasonal reappearance here and do better as 3-year-old. Stablemate Lough Derg won his sole juvenile start at Dundalk in November and is open to further progress as 3-year-old.

Dermot Weld won this with Fascinating Rock & Harzand and has a big contender with Wuqood. The son of Dubawi won a Gowran maiden on his racecourse debut last season and bounced back from a disappointing Curragh run when a head 2^nd of 9 here on a Group 3 last time. On pedigree he should make up into a better 3-year-old.

Taipan won a back end juvenile mile maiden at Naas on his racecourse debut. The son of Frankel is highly regarded by trainer Jessica Harrington and she hopes the colt can be her Derby horse.

Isle Of Sark also won his sole juvenile start. The son of Kitten’s Joy was impressive in winning at Dundalk last November and is another open to more progress as a 3-year-old.

Verdict:  Bolshoi Ballet had good juvenile form and looks capable of more progress at three. Stablemate Lough Derg made a winning racecourse debut at Dundalk and gives Aidan O’Brien a strong hand in the race. Connections think Taipan could be a Derby horse. Wuqood has the pedigree to make into a smart middle-distance colt at three and at the prices rates the pick

1pt win – Wuqood – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

I have a couple more selections in the handicaps

3:15 – Real Appeal a useful juvenile when trained in France. The 4-year-old has yet to win since switching to race in Ireland but ended last season with three respectable efforts in 7f handicaps, including, finishing 3^rd of 18 in a Premier Handicap over C&D and occupying the same spot at Cork last time. Has been dropped 2lb since and capable of going close on his seasonal return from a handy enough draw in stall 7.

1pt win – Real Appeal – 13/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

4:20 – An interesting 3-year-old only handicap over 1m 2f. I want to take on recent last time out Dundalk winner and favourite Sir Lamorak. The two I like are:

Bear Story improved on his three starts last year and put his experience to good use when winning a Dundalk maiden in December. Stamina on the dam side suggests he will stay 1m 2f and he looks sure to win races this season.

Chicago Bear an expensively purchased and well-bred colt, improved markedly on his racecourse debut when winning 7f maiden at Dundalk in November. The second and third have gone to win since so the form looks solid enough. He’s got a solid middle-distance pedigree, his dam won over 1m 4f, and looks the sort to make good progress in his second season.

1pt win – Chicago Bear – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s Grand National Day. The world’s most famous horse race returns from a year off due to the Covid19 pandemic. There’s a red-hot favourite in the shape Cloth Cap. He still faces 39 rivals and must jump 30 fences to win and anything can happen.

The weather is set to be mostly sunny and dry on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how much watering they do overnight.

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 3

1:45 – EFT Systems Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 3m ½ f

A 22-runner handicap hurdle gets National Day underway. Looking at the pace forecast there should be an even gallop but whether there will be strong enough pace for the hold-up performers is questionable.

Come On Teddy finished third in the Pertemps Final last time and maintained his improvement since stepping up to around 3m. There could be more to come from 7-year-old who won’t have any issues with good to soft going but this speedier track might not play to his strengths as Cheltenham does.

Champagne Platinum was two places and just under two lengths behind Come On Teddy at Cheltenham. He gets 3lb from that one today and there shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. Today’s flatter track could suit.

Hometown Boy returnedfrom almost 12 months off the track to win at Kempton (good) 42-days ago. That win came over 2m 5f but he races like he will get further. Up 7lb for his Kempton success but shouldn’t be far away. Yard won the final race here yesterday

Corrieben Reiver has returned from a 480-day break in great form winning at Kelso and then bettering that form when runner-up at Ayr 28-days ago. Recent improved form has come on soft/heavy but he did win a bumper on good to soft. Likely front runner here.

Ballybegg is one of the least experienced runners in the field having had just the four career starts. A winner in novice company at Hereford & latterly at Wetherby. Open to further improvement on his handicap debut but we may not see the best of him until he goes over fences.  Yet to race on ground better than soft.

Barnaviddaun is having his first run since switching from Thomas Mullins to David Bridgewater. The 8-year-old looked an improver beating a subsequent winner in a competitive handicap hurdle Naas in November. Best Irish form on soft, so quicker ground is an unknown, and he’s yet to race beyond an extended 2m 4f under rules.

Southfield Harvest gets the first time cheekpieces today. He’s been steadily progressive on his three starts this season. He will be ridden prominently and if the headgear has the desired effect, he could find the improvement needed to win of his present mark.

Whirling Dervish put in a career best effort when winning a 2m 7f handicap hurdle at Thurles on heavy ground 30-days ago. He stays 3m well and has form on a sounder surface. Up 6lb and in a better race but has each-way claims.

Verdict: The first time cheekpieces could sharpen up Southfield Harvest. There shouldn’t be much between Champagne Platinum & Come On Teddy on their Cheltenham running. Whirling Dervish is an interesting Irish raider. Hometown Boy is in winning form and shouldn’t be far away.

1pt win – Champagne Platinum – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Hometown Boy – 10/1 @ Bet365

2:25 – Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

My Drogo has won his last two in Grade 2 company. Produced to lead soon after 2 out before he quickened clear to win at Kelso last month. Likely to be one of next season’s leading novice chasers. Likes to come off a strong pace he seems likely to get here. The one to beat.

Dreal Deal completed a four timer over hurdles when coming from the rear to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown in January. Stays the trip and has won on good ground on the flat so the drier ground shouldn’t inconvenience either. He’s come through the ranks from a mark of 84 in handicap hurdle company. His improvement may not have ended yet and he could My Drogo most to do.

3:00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m

Surely a formality for Shishkin.

3:35 – Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)– 3m ½ f

Paisley Park, Thyme Hill & Roksana, first, second and third in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December renew rivalry.

Paisley Park has since finished third in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. Whilst Roksana has since occupied the same position in the Mares Hurdle at the Festival. She also finished runner-up in the race in 2019.

Thyme Hill had to miss Cheltenham and is having his first start since December. He’s goes well fresh so the absence shouldn’t be a problem.

There doesn’t look there will be much pace in the race which won’t be a positive for Paisley Park or Roksana who both prefer to come from behind. However, it shouldn’t be an issue for the more handily ridden Thyme Hill.

Vinndication returned from a four months break and back over hurdles when sixth in the Stayers Hurdle last month. That was his first run over hurdles in three years and he should be sharper for that run. Will be ridden prominently so could be suited by the way the race is run and isn’t out of this.

Lisnagar Oscar seemed to be travelling well when taking a heavy fall at the 7^th in the Stayers Hurdle. Will help force the pace and he could get first run on his rivals here. Provided his confidence hasn’t been dented by that fall and I can see him going close.

Verdict: Paisley Park, Thyme Hill and Roksana are the big three. However, at the prices I am going to take a chance with Lisnagar Oscar who was still travelling well when coming down at Cheltenham.

1pt win – Lisnagar Oscar – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:15 – (Mildmay) Betway Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 1f

Happygolucky finished runner-up to Vintage Clouds in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month. That was the 7-year-old’s handicap chase debut and he’s only 2lb higher now. Goes well on a sound surface and will be tough to beat off what remains a competitive mark.

Cloudy Glen & Hold The Note were second and fourth in the 3m 2f Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time and have to be respected although the track and drop back to 3m 1f could suit the latter more than the former and he’s got an each way chance.

Kilfilum Cross is well handicapped on his best form but he hasn’t been in much form this season and his last run in the Kim Muir was a disappointing one. Needs the addition of the first-time blinkers to bring him back to life.

Lalor hasn’t raced since finishing a close-up 3^rd of 10 at Cheltenham last January. Won the Grade 2 bumper here in 2017 and a Grade 1 novice hurdle the following season. Used to go well on a sound surface and showed he stayed 2m 5f at Cheltenham. How much of his old ability remains? And will he stay 3m 1f? Are two questions that need to be answered by the 9-year-old but he’s on a good mark.  

Verdict: Happygolucky remains on a competitive mark after his recent second at Cheltenham and will be tough to beat if reproducing that run. Lalor is interesting on his return from a long lay off and if he stays is handicapped to go close.

1pt each way – Lalor – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

5:15 – (Grand National) Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) – 4m 2 ½ f

The ground has come for Cloth Cap who wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft. He’s now officially rated 14lb higher than his National mark after a win at Kelso last time. Will be tough to beat.

Discorama has been well backed in the last few days but he only carries 10-8. He’s back from a 145-day layoff but interestingly he’s 2 wins from 4 runs when racing between 121 to 365 days since his last run. He could well be suited by the race’s tempo.

Magic of Light is just 5lb higher than when finishing runner-up to Tiger Roll in the race in 2019 and must be respected. Whilst Burrows Saint won the 2019 Irish Grand National and has winning form on good ground.

Last season’s Welsh Grand National Winner Potter’s Cross is interesting in the first-time blinkers. He won last year’s virtual National and must be considered if back to last seasons best.

Lord Du Mesnil is on a good mark but really needs much softer ground than he’s likely to encounter here. The 7-year-old Farclas looks on a decent mark but his age and relative inexperience is a concern as his stamina for a marathon trip.

At a big price Sub Lieutenant can give Tabitha Worsley a great spin. Runner-up in the 2019 Topham Chase over the National fences. The 12-year-old was a high-class chaser in his prime when with Henry De Bromhead and provided plenty of encouragement that he retains plenty of ability when 4^th of 10 at Ascot back in December.

Verdict:  Cloth Cap is an unimaginative selection but sometimes it pays to go with the obvious one and he’s look well in. Burrows Saint has only had nine starts over fences but the 2019 Irish Grand National winner will like the good ground. Discorama & Magic Of Light won’t be far away and there will be worse 50/1 shots than Sub Lieutenant.

1pt win – Burrows Saint – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Magic of Light – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 5 places ¼ odds)

6:20 – Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f

Balco Coastal comfortably won a bumper at Kempton on his debut under rules. He’s an exciting prospect and could be tough to beat.

The Gossiper landed a bit of gamble when winning a Wexford bumper on his debut under rules. The form of that race probably isn’t strong but he’s open to plenty of improvement for trainer Emmet Mullins who is 4-7 +10.75 6 placed with his runners sent to Britain this NH season.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

An excellent first day with two nice priced winners to give us a very healthy profit.

There are four Grade 1’s and three big field handicaps on day two of Aintree’s Grand National Festival. That’s a good mix. Although I have to say a couple of the races I haven’t looked at in great detail.

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2

1:45 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – 2m 4f

Nicky Henderson is 3-15 with his runners in the race since 2013. He clearly likes to throw a few darts at the race and he has a couple of lively contenders in Monte Christo & Mister Coffey.

Monte Christo impressed when winning at Kempton over Christmas. Ran well for a long way in the Coral Cup and was still in contention for the places when hampered at the last. This flatter track may suit him better and he’s be open to improvement.

Mister Coffey can be keen in his races which isn’t a positive on his first start beyond an extended two mile. Only 7^th in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He’s a novice chaser in waiting but he can’t be totally dismissed here given he’s only had five starts over hurdles.

Edwardstone was third in the Betfair Hurdle and then finished 5^th of 25 in the County Hurdle. Shaped at Cheltenham like he was worth a go over today’s distance. Well suited to a big field handicap and Aintree’s flatter track will suit.

Wilde About Oscar won a C&D novice hurdle in the autumn and made it 4-5 over hurdles when making a winning handicap debut at Uttoxeter (good to soft) 20-days ago. The top-weight has been raised 4lb for that win but the 6-year-old can rate higher.

Jacamar won a handicap hurdle over C&D in October. He’s since improved further and was a decisive winner of a Pertemps Qualifier at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Just raced once since in a “Jumpers” bumper at Kempton.  Has an 8lb rise in the weights to contend with but could still be improving if he’s as effective on today’s quicker ground.

Press Your Luck bounced back to form when runner-up at Newbury (good) 13-days ago. That was a career best effort by the 6-year-old. Up 1lb for that effort and in a better race but is going the right way.

Stolen Silver is nicely treated on his best hurdle form last season. Didn’t really take to fences in the autumn and disappointed again when pulling up over hurdles last time.

Master Debonair was a smart novice hurdler, winning a Grade 2 at Ascot, last season. Has run poorly on his next three starts, including two this season. The 7-year-old has now switched to Harry Fry and is also having his start since a wind-op. Not out of it if the stable switch has had the desired effect.

Kateson is another C&D winner and his trainer Tom Lacey saddled the winner of the race in 2018. He’s 4lb higher than when winning in December and is vulnerable to any better handicapped horses on a sound surface.

Verdict: A tough opening handicap get day two underway. The Henderson pair of Monte Christo & Mister Coffey must be respected given the trainer’s record in the race. Master Debonair is interesting on his first start for Harry Fry. Kateson’s course form bring him into the mix. Edwardstone is a player if he stays. He goes well on a flat track and won’t mind the ground. Wilde About Oscar is progressive and can go close.

1pt win – Wilde About Oscar – 8/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Monte Christo – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:20 – Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f

This doesn’t look the best renewals of this race.  Nicky Henderson has saddled four winners in the past 10 years. He has the ante post favourite in Dusart who won on his racecourse debut at Newbury in November beating Soaring Glory in the process. He looked a smart prospect winning that day but the fact that he’s favourite shows this isn’t the strongest of races. Can be put in the “could be anything category” For Pleasure looks a shade over priced on his 3^rd of 8 behind Appreciate It in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. A tearaway front runner the track will suit him and he could hang on to get in to the money.

1pt win – For Pleasure – 11/1 @ Bet365

2:50 – (Mildmay) Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f

Chantry House looked like he could improve for a step up to 3m when winning the Marsh Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. If he does, he will be tough to beat here.

Fiddlerontheroof showed he was all about stamina when finishing runner-up to Monkfish in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham. He’s yet to finish out of the first two since going over fences with his sole win coming in a beginners’ chase at Exeter in November.  He only beat Silver Hallmark that day. Silver Hallmark went on to make all to win a Grade 2 novices’ chase at Haydock on his next start. He’s only had the two starts over the larger obstacles so is open to plenty of improvement. However, it was heavy at Haydock and he might need softer ground.

3:25 – (Mildmay) Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Politologue won this in 2018 and finished runner-up in 2019. Was withdrawn on the day of the Champion Chase so comes here fresh. He won the Tingle Creek on his seasonal reappearance but was not match for First Flow at Ascot in January.

Dashel Drasher took the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride when winning the Ascot Chase in February. He missed Cheltenham and given his front running style he should be suited by the track.

Master Tommytucker finished runner-up in the Ascot Chase. Today’s better ground could suit and there shouldn’t be much between him and Dashel Drasher here.

Fakir D’oudairies finished runner-up to Allaho in the Ryanair Chase.  He was not match for the impressive winner that day but faces nothing of that calibre here.

Nuts Well has looked much improved this season winning both his starts. He beat Aye Right on his seasonal reappearance and then won the Old Roan Handicap Chase over C&D, beating Clondaw Castle. He has a bit to find on official ratings with Politologue but isn’t ruled out on his return from 166-day absence.

4:05 – (Grand National) Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m 5f

Another race over the National fences.  A field of 28 have been declared for this traditionally competitive race. There are plenty in with a chance.

Modus won over the Mildmay Course in November and then finished third in the Grand Sefton over the National fences a month later. Today’s better ground is a positive. His 125-day absence isn’t a negative either as his form figures when returning from a 121-day layoff are 2131161. High on the shortlist.

Precious Cargo returned from a 108-day break and wind surgery to finish 5^th at Warwick. He looked the most likely winner when leading two out but he faded at the last.  Was it stamina for 2m 4f or did he just need the run? If it was the latter, he’s handicapped to go close.

Besides Precious Cargo Nicky Henderson, who has won this race three times in the past ten years, also saddles Morning Vicar. The 8-year-old has only had five starts over fences and ran well for a long way until his stamina gave way in the Kim Muir last time. The drop back in trip will suit and he’s at his most effective on good/good to soft going.

Kauto Riko’s sole run this season saw him come 4^th of 16 in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in November. He was doing his best work at the finish although he may have been flattered by his final position given plenty of the field didn’t give their running. If he takes to the fences, he’s got each way claims.

My Way needs the big National fences to bring out a bit more improvement to overcome his present mark. He’s a prominent runner and if he can get into a jumping rhythm isn’t out of this.

Senior Citizen has been aimed at this race all season. He was travelling like a well handicapped horse before soft ground took its toll in the Grand Sefton. He returned to action with a good effort when 4^th of 14 in a competitive Newbury handicap chase (good) last month. The better the ground the better his chance.

Ravenhill Road put in a career best effort over fences when beating six rivals at Doncaster (good) last month. He’s been raised 9lb but despite being a 10-year-old is going the right way. If he takes to the fences, he’s in with a chance.

Storm Control is a bold jumping front runner as he showed when winning twice at Cheltenham in the autumn. A solid fifth in the Kim Muir last time he doesn’t hold any secrets from the handicapper but his jumping gives him a chance.

Willie Mullins sends over a couple contenders in Livelovelaugh & Robin Des Foret.

Livelovelaugh comes into the race on the back of two excellent placed efforts in big field handicaps at Leopardstown. Took to the fences when 11^th in the 2019 Grand National, just didn’t stay that marathon trip. Fine on the ground and has a big chance but is on a losing run that goes back over three years.

Robin Des Foret is nicely treated on his best form and is just 1lb higher than when runner-up at Killarney last August. The 11-year-old isn’t the most consistent but isn’t totally ruled out. Although his stablemate is the stable’s number one hope.

Sir Jack Yeats is 4lb out of the handicap but he was 3lb out of the handicap when an excellent 2^nd of 18 in the Grand Sefton in December. He took to the fences well that day and has won four times on good/good to soft going. A reproduction of his Grand Sefton run would give an each-way chance.

Verdict: You could pick three and not see any of them finish in the places. It’s that sort of race. I can’t leave Senior Citizen out. although the yard is 1-35 in the past 14-days or Special Cargo and Modus.

1pt each way – Modus – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Special Cargo – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Senior Citizen – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f

The step up to 3m should suit Bravemansgame who was an excellent third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle last time. He’s the one to beat on that form.

Cape Gentlemen made it 2-3over hurdles when winning the Grade 3 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton (good). Last season’s Irish Cesarewitch winner is rated 100 on the level and the best of the 5-year-old has yet to be seen over hurdles. The drying ground will suit and he could prove good enough.

Oscar Elite bounced back to his best returning to 3m when finishing runner-up in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle last time. No stamina doubts for the 6-year-old who shouldn’t be far away if replicating his Cheltenham performance.

5:15 – Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ and Amateur Riders’ Race) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Thistimenextyear was beaten a head in this race 2 years ago. He returns from a 667-day break but if he’s fully tuned up, he’s on a good mark. Top Irish Conditional Simon Torrens had been booked for the ride which suggests he’s set for big run.

Recent winners Taunton winners Copperless & Comprond are big contenders. The former won on his handicap debut and was suited by good ground. He’s been raised 6lb for his last win but he’s going the right way and can win again.

Comprond a winner twice on the flat when trained in France won over hurdles at the third attempt 17-days ago. That was his first start for 91-days so he could strip fitter here on his handicap hurdle debut. The 5-year-old seemed well suited by good ground last time. Trainer Philip Hobbs is 0-35 in the past 14-days.

Verdict: Copperless & Comprond are open to further improvement over hurdles. A reproduction of his run in this race two years ago would see Thistimenextyear go very close.

1pt each way – Thistimenextyear – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s day one of the Aintree Grand National Festival. There’s a first sight of the National fences with the latest running of Foxhunters Chase. The competitive Red Rum Handicap Chase over 2m. The card concludes with an interesting mares’ only bumper. Which sees the unbeaten Eileendover back in action after bypassing the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham.

I have had a look at all seven races on the card in this preview.

Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 1

The going is being described as good to soft but I suspect given the watering that the track will ride on the slow side and the going/stick reading of 5.6 on the chase course and 5.8 on the hurdle course suggests that will be the case.

1:45 – (Mildmay) SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Fusil Raffles heads the betting after his recent second in the Marsh Novices Chase at Cheltenham. The 6-year-old jumps neatly, will like the good ground, and should be suited by the track. Big chance if this doesn’t come to quick. Trainer Nicky Henderson saddled the 2012 winner.

Eldorado Allen was ridden to place in the Arkle Novices Chase. He was no match for Shishkin but was given a good ride to finish runner-up. First go beyond 2m 1f but it looks worth a try. Trainer Colin Tizzard has had a nightmare season but his record at the meeting is a good one. Particularly in Grade 1’s with runners who finished first or second on their last start – 6 winners from 12 runners 50% +29.79 8 placed 67%, He also saddled the winner of this race in 2018.

The Shunter has been a real money spinner for connections this season and fully deserves to take his chance in Graded company after his win at the Cheltenham Festival. His new mark means he doesn’t need find much more improvement to win here.

Verdict: I’m going with The Shunter here but Eldorado Allen must be respected.

2:20 – Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f

Monmiral made it 4-4 over hurdles when winning at Haydock 47-days ago.  He bypassed Cheltenham to come here. Solid form chance. However, I’m not sure he should be as short as he is.

Adagio is a consistent hurdler who posted a career best when runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle last time. Likely to give his running and won’t be far away.

If there is to be an upset it could be provided by Fiveandtwenty or John Locke.

Fiveandtwenty’s form isn’t at the level as the other two. However, she made it 3-3 since going hurdling when winning the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh last time.  A speedy and slick hurdler connections opted for this rather than go to Cheltenham.

John Locke wasn’t disgraced when fourth to Tritonic in the Adonis Hurdle. That was his first start over hurdles so should be capable of more improvement. Big ask here but can’t be easily dismissed.

Verdict: Adagio should be favourite ahead ofMonmiral but there doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace in the race and Fiveandtwenty could be the one to take advantage.

1pt win – Fiveandtwenty – 14/1 @ Bet365

2:50 – Betway Bowl Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f

A decent sized field of nine have been declared for arguably the race of the day.

Clan Des Obeaux has finished second in the race in 2019 and third in 2018. Probably not the horse that he once was although his run in the Betfair Chase was a good one. Gets the first time cheekpieces today which will hopefully galvanise him back to something approaching his best.

Native River found things happening to quickly in the Gold Cup but he managed to plug on into fourth. There isn’t much pace forecast which will suit him but will underfoot conditions be soft enough?

Waiting Patiently runner-up in the King George VI is suited by a flat track and as he showed at Kempton this distance is within his stamina range. Lightly raced for a 10-year-old he deserves to win another Grade 1.

Tiger Roll comes here rather than go for the Gold Cup. He bounced back to form to win the Cross Country at Cheltenham last time. This is his time of year and the good ground will suit. Big player.

Clondaw Castle is another who will relish the drying ground. The 9-year-old put in a career best effort when stepped up to 3m in a valuable handicap chase at Kempton last time. This is looks a step-in class but on the figures he doesn’t have much to find with the principals.

Mister Fisher ran well, considering how badly he jumped, before pulling up in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham. Looks worth a go over 3m but his jumping must be better than last time if he’s to win in this company.

Verdict: If the ground is closer to good you would have to give the improving Clondaw Castle a big chance. If they have put on a lot of water on the track then Native River shouldn’t be underestimated.

1pt win – Native River – 6/1 @ Bet365

3:25 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 4f

Brewin’upastorm & McFabulous were first and second in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell last time. The runner-up gets 6lb from the winner so there shouldn’t be much between the pair at these weights. However, I think there could be more to come from Brewin’upastorm over hurdles.

Jason The Militant brings high class Irish hurdling form to the race. He seems to be improving with racing and given his prominent style of running he should be suited by the track.  First start beyond two miles but should stay.

Song For Someone missed the Champion Hurdle after a lack lustre run behind Goshen in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. Had looked better than ever when winning his first two starts this season and can’t be ruled out over trip that suits.

Abacadabras didn’t get beyond the third in the Champion Hurdle. Last season’s Supreme Novices Hurdle runner-up hasn’t really kicked on this season as hoped and he may find there are stronger stayers on his first run beyond 2m.

Buveur D’Air bypassed the Champion Hurdle. The 10-year-old probably isn’t the horse he was but it’s worth remembering the former Champion Hurdler won this in 2017 and was runner-up two years ago.

Silver Streak made all to beat Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton but couldn’t do the same when only sixth in the Champion Hurdle. Faces competition for the lead here but he’s a smart hurdler at his best and on good ground can never be ruled out.

Not So Sleepy is a classy handicapper as he showed when beating Buzz at Ascot in December. Wasn’t disgraced when 5^th of 10 in the Champion Hurdle last time. Could get into the money at big odds.

Verdict: Song For Someone is better than he was able to show last time and will be suited by the return to 2m 4f. Jason The Militant could face competition for the lead but is the best horse in the race. Not So Sleepy has each way claims. However, preference here is for Brewin’upastorm who will be suited by likely strong pace.

1pt win – Brewin’upastorm – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:05 – (Grand National) Rose Paterson Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) – 2m 5f

Not a race that I would normally look at but there is one I really like.

Billaway heads the market after his recent second in the Cheltenham Foxhunters last time. He’s the one to beat if he takes to the fences. However, I prefer the claims Some Man. A good moving horse he showed what he was capable of on a sound surface, when making all to win at Down Royal 22-days ago. He’s got a bit to find with Billaway on official ratings but on today’s better ground I can see him going close.

1pt win – Some Man – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

4:40 – (Mildmay) Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m

Seventeen are set to go post for a competitive two-mile handicap chase. Looking at the pace maps for the race there’s a good chance of very strong pace.

Destrier finished 3^rd in the Grade 1 novices chase C&D 2-years ago and then bettered that performance when occupying the same position in Exeter’s Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal return last season. He’s now 6lb lower and will be suited to the expected sound surface which he hasn’t raced on since Exeter.

Editeur Du Gite made all to win at Newbury last month. The good ground suited him that day and although he’s been raised 7lb for that success. The runner-up has since gone in the so the form looks solid enough.  The forecast strong pace could be a negative here.

On The Slopes is another who likes to force the pace. The 7-year-old finished 4^th of 19 in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham. The going will suit and Aintree’s flatter track will suit him better than Cheltenham.

Frero Banbou seemed to have benefited from a combination of a wind op and better ground when comfortably winning at Sandown last month. The handicapper has hiked him up 13lb for that victory but he has potential for further improvement.

Getaway Trump should be suited by a strongly run race on a flat track. A comfortable winner at Doncaster last time. The top weight is up 9lb higher in a deeper race but shouldn’t be far away although he often flattered to deceive over hurdles.

Grey Diamond has progressed with each of his three starts since returning from a 12-month break. Career best when winning at Sandown 27-days ago. The ground was good that day so underfoot conditions won’t be a problem for the 7-year-old.  Raised 6lb for his Sandown success but must be high on the shortlist.

Verdict: Destrier is very well handicapped but his price has now gone. At the prices I’m going with recent handicap winners Grey Diamond & Editeur Du Gite.

1pt win – Grey Diamond – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Editeur Du Gite – 10/1 @ Bet365

5:15 – Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m 1f

Eileendover is the one to beat. The mare is unbeaten on her three bumper starts and will be suited by Aintree’s flat track.

Elle Est Belle came from off the pace to finish third in the Champion Bumper. Looks the one danger to the favourite and the anticipated strong pace will suit her.

Wheres Maud Gone has won both her bumper starts. Her first success came at Thurles in November and she followed up on her first start for Laura Morgan at Ayr last month.  The daughter of Yeats looks a smart prospect and although she needs to improve again has each way claims.

Me Too Please returned from 12 months off the track to win at Down Royal 22-days ago. The daughter of Champs Elysees needs to have improved plenty since to trouble the likes of Eileendover and Elle Est Belle but she’s an interesting contender from an Irish trainer who doesn’t send many over to Britain these days.

Verdict: Eileendover will take the beating but at the prices Me Too Please and Wheres Maud Gone appeal.

1pt win – Me Too Please – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Wheres Maud Gone – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Botani built on her recent Leopardstown fifth, to win the big race at Cork yesterday. Her win gave us a steady profit in the day which would have been even better without a hefty Rule 4 of 30p in the £ to early advised prices.

It’s Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse. The big race is set to go off at 5:00pm and you can see it and the best of the rest of action from Fairyhouse & Kempton on ITV.  I have confined today’s selections to the Irish venue.  

Hopefully we can maintain the winning run today. I will be back on Thursday for the start of Aintree Grand National Meeting.

Fairyhouse

The going is being described as yielding on both the hurdle and chase courses.

2:05 – Farmhouse Foods Novice Handicap Hurdle – 2m

Shanroe was much improved on the flat and over hurdles last summer and autumn. The 7-year-old returned from a 130-day break when 4^th of 9 at Down Royal 19-days ago. Hopefully he will come on for that run and looks to have a good chance here.

The Big King a winner at Navan back in November before finishing runner-up at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He returned from a 78-day break to finish 3^rd of 14 at Navan 22-days ago. He looked all over the winner when going clear at the last but didn’t seem to get home over 2m 3f. Remains in good form and should be there or thereabouts.

1pt win – The Big King – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Shanroe – 7/1 @ Coral

3:15 – Fairyhouse Steel Handicap Hurdle – 2m 6f

Lynwood Gold a useful staying handicapper on the flat last year caught the eye when a keeping on 6^th of 16 in Pertemps Qualifier at Punchestown last month. That was the 6-year-old’s first start since October so he should strip fitter here and trainer Jessica Harrington had a double here yesterday.  

Max Flamingo won at the fifth time of asking over hurdles when landing a Leopardstown maiden (2m 4f) 29-days ago. Today’s extra two furlongs can bring out more progress in the 6-year-old and he looks to have a good chance of making a winning handicap debut.

1pt win – Max Flamingo – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:00 – BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase (Extended Handicap Chase) (Grade A) – 3m 5f

As you would expect you can give most of the 30 runners some sort of chance and I have plenty on my shortlist.

Top weight Latest Exhibition heads the ante post betting. A classy novice hurdler last season he’s transferred that form to fences and is the one to beat in the first time cheekpieces.

Run Wild Fred looked a Irish Grand National type when finishing runner-up to stablemate Coko Beach in the valuable Thyestes Handicap chase on his last start. Coko Beach must give him 9lb here for a 4-length beating, although Jordon Gainford takes off a handy 7lb. Over today trip I would fancy Run Wild Fred to reverse form.

Court Maid looked improved when winning over C&D back in November. That was the mares first start beyond 3m and she remains unexposed over marathon trips. Up 12lb now and has a 115-day absence to overcome but has won off a lay off in the past.

The Big Dog won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last time out and looked an ideal type for this race. A progressive staying handicap chaser on heavy ground, he won’t be far away if he’s as effective on today’s sounder surface.

Moyhenna was third behind The Big Dog at Punchestown and is 10lb better off for a 7-length beating. The 9-year-old has plenty of good form in these types of race, beaten a nose in the Kerry National in September and fourth in the Munster National a month later. Ran as well as ever when 5^th of 11 in the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham last month over an inadequate 2m 4f.

Espanito Bello is one of the least exposed in the field. The 7-year-old comes into the race having just had four starts over fences. He slammed Coko Beach in a beginners’ chase at Naas in December and looked to have that one’s measure again when making a bad mistake at the last. To his credit he ran on all the way to get within four lengths of the winner at the line. Providing his jumping holds up he’s a got a big chance here.

Discordantly jumping has let him down since finishing fourth in the Troytown Handicap Chase in November. His jumping was better when 6^th of 16 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month. Gives the impression he can win a valuable pot when everything clicks with his jumping. I just hope it’s not today.  

Augusta Gold could be the pick of the Willie Mullins team. The mare is having her first start for the trainer since switching from Mags Mullins. She returned from a year off the track to beat Moyhenna in a Mares’ only Grade 3 chase (2m 4f) here in January and wasn’t disgraced when fourth over hurdles last time. Very much unexposed over marathon trips and she did finish runner-up in the last seasons Grand National Trial on just her second start beyond 3m.

Verdict: Latest Exhibition’s claims are there for all to see and he’s a worthy market leader. The mares’ Augusta Gold & Court Maid must be respected, as does Moyhenna who has plenty of form in big field handicap chases. The unexposed Espanito Bello is going the right way and looks on a winnable mark if his jumping holds up.

1pt win – Augusta Gold – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Espanito Bello – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt each way – Court Maid – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

5:35 – Fred Kenny Lifetime Service To Racing Handicap Chase – 3m ½ f

The Gunner Murphy heads the market. The 8-year-old is 0-6 over fences and returned from over 12 months off the track to finish 2^nd of 6 at Down Royal 19-days ago. He shaped that day like he needs today’s’ trip and is capable of better. His stablemate Smoking Gun has really struggled on his last four starts since finishing a promising third at Cork at the turn of the year. Better ground and this is a drop in class for the 8-year-old.

The likes of Whisperinthebreeeze and Paper Lantern are on winnable marks based on their back class. The former would be of interest if the ground was to dry out further and his trainer had a double here yesterday.

Another on a handy mark is Ah Littleluck, a winner of a handicap hurdle at this meeting in 2018. The 11-year-old is only 1-19 over fences but put in his best effort over fences here last season and a reproduction of that performance would see him in the mix. No real form this season but if he was bounce back, he would have each way claims.

1pt each way – Ah Littleluck – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A tidy profit on Saturday which could have been even better if Defuture Is Bright had held on at Haydock. On to Sunday and it’s day two of the Irish Grand National Meeting at Fairyhouse and there’s also a decent jumping card at Cork.  I have had a look at today’s two big handicaps.

Fairyhouse

4:25 – BoyleSports Novice Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 2m ½ f

Jerandme made it 2-2 over fences when winning at Sligo over an extended 3m in September. At his best on good ground, he’s back from a 202-day break which shouldn’t be negative as he’s 2-2 when returning from a 121-day break. Trainer Noel Meade saddled the 2018 winner.

Jessica Harrington trained the 2019 winner and she got two entries this year. Exit Poll & Jungle Junction. The latter got of the mark at the fourth attempt over fences when winning a Naas beginners’ chase three weeks ago. Handicap debut and can go well if as effective on a sounder surface. Like his stablemate Exit Poll is making his handicap chase debut. The 7-year-old put in a good jumping display to win a Leopardstown novice chase 27-days ago. All three of his career wins have come on yielding or good to yielding so no problem with the drying ground and he’s a winner here over hurdles.

Steer Clear form figures since returning to action this season are 1U1. The latest of those wins came when the 8-year-old made all to win a Leopardstown novice chase 28-days ago. Up 10lb for his latest win but there could more to come on ground that will suit.

Verdict: Jerandme needs good ground but can’t be ruled out if getting it. Slight preference for Exit Poll and Steer Clear.

1pt win – Exit Poll – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Steer Clear – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cork

4:05 – O’Dwyers Steel Dundrum Easter Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 3f

De Name Escapes Me won the November Handicap at Naas on the flat last season and then finished 3^rd of 20, behind recent Stayers Hurdle winner Flooring Porter, at Navan a month later. The latter run came over an extended 3m but there could be a strong pace on so his stamina could come into play.

Crossed My Mind won this race in 2019, off 6lb lower. He’s been in good form over fences this season, winning twice and was still in contention coming to the last in a valuable handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. The 9-year-old seemed not to stay the extended 2m 5f at Leopardstown. Simon Torrens takes off a handy 5lb.

Zoffanien a comfortable winner at Naas on handicap hurdle debut two starts back didn’t jump with much fluency when 8^th of 22 in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham and in the circumstances did well to get as close as he did. Today’s longer distance could suit and he would be a danger to all if getting into the race (second reserve).

West Cork Wildway seemed to enjoy the “hustle n bustle” of a big field handicap when 4^th of 20 at the Dublin Racing Festival. Didn’t build in that promise when only  4^th of 8 in a Thurles Grade 3 Today’s longer trip should suit, as will a return to handicaps.

Botani was an eyecatcher when 5^th of 20 in a competitive mares’ only handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.  She got slightly hampered two out and but for that would have finished closer.  The form of the race is working out rather well. The winner followed up in the Coral Cup, the third Telmesomethinggirl won the mares’ novices hurdle at Cheltenham and the fourth Lady Breffini won a big handicap here yesterday.

Ballywilliam Boy was an impressive winner of a Naas maiden hurdle last time. That was a much-improved effort from the 6-year-old on just his third start over hurdles. The runner-up has gone in since so the form could be better than it looks. Lacks experience for his handicap debut but is going the right way.

Verdict: Crossed My Mindhas a good chance of second win in the race. The likes of Botani and Ballywilliam Boy are high on the shortlist.

1pt win – Crossed My Mind – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Botani – 10/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Plenty of good action either side of the Irish Sea on Saturday. ITV are covering the best of the action at Musselburgh & Haydock as part of a seven-race programme.  It’s also day one of the Irish Grand National meeting at Fairyhouse.

Haydock

2:40 – Betway Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 3m 1 ½ f

Debece caught the eye when 2^nd of 8 at Sandown three weeks ago.  The ground was soft that day and he’s a better horse on a sounder surface. The track should suit this prominent racer who has a favourites chance. Slight concern that this previously fragile horse had a hard race at Sandown just three weeks ago. Preference is for DEFUTURE IS BRIGHT a Warwick winner (good) back in November improved to post a career best when upped to 3m at Fakenham (good to soft) 15-days ago. The 7-year-old has only had four starts over fences, and with his stamina for 3m now confirmed, he can continue to improve over fences.

2pts win – Defuture Is Bright – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Betway Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle – 3m ½ f

Iwilldoit & Colonial Dreams were second and third at Newbury last month. The latter gets 1lb for 1 ¾ length beating and was having his first start since November. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again here. Colonial Dreams will like the good ground and is on a good mark if building on his Newbury run.

Trainer Jeremy Snowden is 6 winners from 15 runners 40% +15.58 at Haydock in the past five years. He saddles a very lively outsider in Exod’ela. The 7-year-old put in a cracking effort when 5^th of 19 at Cheltenham (good) back in October. He was finishing his race of strongly that day and is 5lb lower today.

1pt win – Iwilldoit – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt each way – Exod’ela – 33/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

Musselburgh

It’s back to flat turf action at Musselburgh this afternoon.

1:50 – Betway Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap (Class 3) – 7f

Stone Soldier heads the betting. The 4-year-old has been in excellent form since joining the Archie Watson yard. Winning three of his four starts at Southwell. The last of those wins 30-days ago came after a gelding operation. He’s only 1-11 on turf so at the prices looks worth taking on despite his fibresand improvement.

The one I like is Marshall Dan who won over C&D (soft) last October. He’s ground versatile. Having won on going from soft to good to firm and 7f is his optimum distance. This will be the 6-year-old’s first run since December but he’s gone well fresh in the past. He’s now 5lb higher than when winning over C&D but looks to have solid claims.

1pt win – Marshall Dan – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Betway Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

Plenty of potential improving 3-year-olds among the seven runners. The likes of Forest Falcon, Colonel Faulkner both make their handicap debut off what look fair marks. The former made all to win at York on his final start as 2-year-old. The son of Raven’s Pass has the size and scope to make a better 3-year-old. Colonel Faulkner a winner at Deauville in December and is having his first start since a gelding operation. Tornadic a winner at Salisbury (1m) in September went down by a short head on his nursery debut at Kempton. He’s up 6lb for that effort but is another progressive sort.  and is the first runner at the track in the past five years for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton. Heights Of Abraham won here over 7f last season and ended his juvenile season by winning a Doncaster nursery off 5lb lower.  Another with the scope to do better this year.

3:00 – Betway Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

This looks a cracking sprint handicap. Three of the four, I like here have high draws which is real positive at the track.  Justanotherbottle (11) overcame soft ground to win the Catterick Dash in October. The 7-year-old will be sharper after a recent prep at Wolverhampton 14-days ago. Just 2lb higher than for his last win and should go well again.

Just a head behind Justanotherbottle at Catterick was Count D’orsay (4). He gets a 1lb from that one here so there shouldn’t be much between the pair. However, his best form has come on soft ground and drying ground wouldn’t play to his strengths.

Zarzyni (12) had some good form as a juvenile when trained in Ireland by Michael Halford. The 4-year-old struggled last year but he made a promising start for new trainer David Barron when a close-up 3^rd of 8 at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. If he runs on Saturday, he will strip fitter than last time and looks on a handy mark.

Jabbarockie (10), trained by Eric Alston, has come in for support in the ante post market this week and you can see why. The 8-year-old is a previous C&D winner and made all to win on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket last season. He’s now 1lb below his Newmarket winning mark and his prominent style of racing is well suited to the track. He could be hard to peg back from his high draw.

1pt win – Jabbarockie – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Betway Queen’s Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f

Nate The Great, represents the inform Andrew Balding stable who had three winners on Good Friday. The 5-year-old has been in good form on the all-weather over the winter and last time out won at Wolverhampton, off 3lb lower. His Wolverhampton win came over an extended 2m so stamina is assured. Balding also saddles Diocletian who has been running over hurdles and looks on fair mark on his best form flat form last season. Mark Johnston saddled the last winner of the race in 2019 and has five of the thirteen declared runners. The best of his five could be Themaxwecan who was a good 4^th of 16 at Royal Ascot last season and ran well when runner-up in the 2m 2f Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket. He might be better over 2m but he’s down to his last winning mark. Alright Sunshine was a progressive staying handicapper in 2019. Struggled for form on his four starts last season but he’s back to a competitive mark and is 2-2 Musselburgh¸ including C&D. Glencadam Glory finished runner-up in last season’s Ebor Handicap, off today’s mark, the 7-year-old must be respected if reproducing his York run here.

1pt win – Themaxwecan – 8/1 @ Bet365

Fairyhouse

Two handicap hurdles that interest me today at Fairyhouse.

3:30 – I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Handicap Hurdle Series Final (Grade B) – 3m

Jacksons Gold was a good winner of a handicap hurdlerat Naas 20-days ago. He didn’t look like would win two out but finished his race off powerfully after the last to get up in the final strides. That Naas success came over 2m 3f but he stays 2m 7f and on a decent surface should stay 3m. Raised 5lb for his last win and has solid each way claims here.

1pt each way – Jacksons Gold – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

4:05 – RYBO Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) – 2m

Eskylane won a Punchestown maiden on his seasonal reappearance in October (yielding). Not so good in graded company on his next two starts but put in some decent late work when 10^th of 22 in handicap company at the Dublin Racing Festival last time. Besides Eskylane trainer Denise Foster also saddles handicap hurdle debutant Magic Tricks. The 5-year-old was impressive when winning on his hurdle debut at Navan in December although he’s struggled in Grade 2 & Grade 1 company. Lacks the experience of plenty of the twenty declared runners but makes his handicap debut off what could be a lenient mark. Previous C&D winner. She also saddles Eclair De Beaufeu the previous C&D winner was an excellent 4^th of 25 in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s 1lb lower here and Jordon Gainford takes off a further 7lb. Big player if reproducing his Cheltenham run. Golden Jewel goes well in big field handicap hurdles. He was an eyecatcher when finishing best of all when 5^th of 22 in the Leopardstown handicap hurdle that Eskylane was 10^th in. He made a mistake three out that day and would probably have finished closer but for that error. The 9-year-old doesn’t win very often but has each way claims again off just 1lb higher than last time. Hurricane Cliff has been steadily progressive since going over hurdles and posted a career best when beating 16 rivals in a Naas maiden hurdle 49-days ago. Needs to improve again to defy a mark of 130 on his handicap hurdle debut but he’s only had four starts so could be capable of finding the necessary progress and Hugh Morgan takes off a handy 5lb.

1pt win – Eskylane – 10/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Hurricane Cliff – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the final day of the all-weather season. Lingfield hosts the All-Weather Championship Day.  There are six Championship races on a seven-race card. There’s also synthetic action at Newcastle & Chelmsford. You can watch the best of the Lingfield & Newcastle action on ITV this afternoon.

There are aren’t many solid value selections at either meeting although I have two of interest at Lingfield.

Lingfield

3:10 – All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 6f

I had really liked Irish raider Harry’s Bar for this but his draw in stall 12 is off-putting. Venturous is much better drawn in stall 4.  The 8-year-old has been in excellent form winning four Class 2 handicaps this winter on the tapeta and deserves to take his chance here. The stronger gallop the better his chance. LAMPANG finished runner-up to Good Effort in a Listed race over C&D in November. The 4-year-old missed most of the last year’s flat season but the highly regarded colt has only had seven career starts and is capable of better. Stall 10 isn’t great but he will do for me.

1pt win – Lampang – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes

3:45 – Ladbrokes 3-Year-Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 6f

There has been plenty of market support for Diligent Harry and the Clive Cox trained colt who was beaten just a short head over C&D 23-days and looks on the upgrade. APOLLO ONE, a useful juvenile winning two of his four starts, made a winning return as 3-year-old when winning a Listed race over 7f here last month. He showed a useful change of gear between the third and second furlongs to win that day so the drop back to 6f shouldn’t inconvenience.

1pt win- Apollo One – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John