Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

I’m back in the hot seat after my short break.

Ok, it’s not the most exciting of Saturday’s but we are just a week away from the Derby & Oaks and there going to be plenty of better punting opportunities in the coming weeks.

The ITV cameras are covering the best of the action from Haydock, Beverley & Chester.

Haydock

The going at Haydock is soft, good to soft in places.

1:45 – Betway Handicap (Class 3) – 6f

Capote’s Dream twice a winner at Kempton showed he could be as effective on turf when winning at Windsor (good) last time. Raised only 2lb for that success his coming from behind style of racing makes him dependent on a good pace to chase but it also means he doesn’t win his races by much which makes it hard for the handicapper to assess him. Soft ground is a bit of an unknown but if he handles it, he will go close.

Bielsa wasn’t beaten far when 5^th of 18 at York 17-days ago. Down to a winnable mark but doesn’t finding winning easy and has been a beaten favourite on both starts this season.

Cold Stare won this race in 2019 off 5lb higher. He wasn’t beaten far at Goodwood 8-days ago and is best suited to soft ground. Osin Murphy booked of the ride and a return to C&D is a positive.

Musicality seems ground versatile. Although the 4-year-old hasn’t really built on his Newmarket success last August he remains open to further improvement and will strip fitter for Ascot reappearance effort 22-days ago.

Bernardo O’Reilly finished three places and ¾ length behind Musicality at Ascot on his return to action. Down to his last winning mark the 7-year-old is suited to a strongly run 6f and although he’s not the most consistent of horses he shouldn’t be far away if building on his Ascot running.

The lightly raced Helvazia ended last season with an improved effort in Listed company at Goodwood and is interesting with Frankie Dettori booked for her seasonal return.

Hyperfocus is 3-5, 4 placed, over C&D and is at his best on soft ground. Should strip fitter for his York seasonal return 17-days ago and can’t be easily dismissed with conditions in his favour.

Verdict: Arguably the most competitive race of the day and you can make a strong case for six or seven of the 16 runners. Bielsa doesn’t find winning easy but shouldn’t be far away. Both Capote’s Dream & Bernardo O’Reilly need a strong pace to chase but if they get it won’t be far away.

1pt win – Capote’s Dream – 11/2 @ Coral & Bet365

1pt win – Bernardo O’Reilly – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:15 – Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) – 5f

El Astronaute showed his usual early speed when making all to win at Chester on his seasonal return. The 8-year-old often runs well on his seasonal return and must show he can back it up second time up. Will take the beating, if he can.

Aljady was a much-improved sprinter last season and although he has been at his very best on either start in 2021 shouldn’t be far away here.

Moss Gill wasn’t seen at his best in a Group 1 at Meydan over the winter. Last year’s best from brings him right into the mix and the first time cheekpieces are applied today. Best form so far has come at York but if the headgear has the desired effect, he will be in the mix.

Count D’orsay has a bit to find at the weights but is well suited to soft ground and course & distance, Could get into the frame but stall 10 is slightly off putting.

Tarboosh must give a 3lb penalty away but normally gives his running in these sorts of races and can’t be ruled out from what could be a handy draw in stall 5.

Verdict: The likely strong pace will suit Moss Gill and he could be the one to be with in an open looking race.

Beverley

The going at the East Yorkshire track is soft and the feature races on seven race card are for the juveniles. However, the most interesting race from a betting perspective is the 7 ½ handicap (3:45)

3:10 – Continental Two-Year-Old Trophy Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) -5f

The most interesting runner is the unraced 105,000 Gns breeze up purchase Straits Of Moyle. Trained by Richard Fahey, who won the last running of the race in 2019 for the same owners, the colt could be good enough to make a winning racecourse debut if handling the soft ground.

1pt win – Straits Of Moyle – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – bet365 Handicap (Class 3) – 7 ½ f

Sibaaq looked to have improved for a gelding operation when winning over C&D 45-days ago. From a family that go well with racing, he’s up just 4lb for last time and has handy draw in stall 3. Testing ground would be a concern but he can go close if handling it.

Give It Some Teddy looks to be working his way back to form and was a ½ length 4^th of 14 at Carlisle 12-days ago. Can race off the same mark here and is suited to the ground. Not sure if this track will play to the 7-year-old’s strengths but now below his last winning mark. Stablemate Cassy O won twice at Ayr last year and shaped like he could be competitive of this sort of mark 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 12 at Wetherby two starts back. Didn’t get the best of passages at York last time so that run is best forgiven. Not without an each-way chance if he can overcome stall 10.

Top-weight Queen’s Sargent is 1-1 over C&D and although the 6-year-old races off a career high mark can’t be ruled out in this company.

Verdict: Sibaaq is a worthy favourite but doubts about the ground mean he can be taken on. Queen’s Sargent holds no secrets from the handicapper but is consistent enough and Cassy O can do better than last time even though his draw isn’t ideal.

1pt win – Queen’s Sargent – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Chester

It’s good to soft at Chester and ITV are covering one race from the track this afternoon.

2:40 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) – 7 ½ f

Boardman is up 10lb for an impressive win at York 15-days ago. The rise in the weights shouldn’t be an issue but the question is whether his style of running is suited to Chester’s twists and turns. Good draw in stall 4 and he looks the one to beat in his hat trick bid.

Ejtilaab has run well on both starts this season, including when 3 ¼ length 5^th of 10 over C&D last time. At his best on a sound surface so drying ground is a positive and he should go well from stall 1.

Previous C&D winner Another Batt was on place behind Ejtilaab in that C&D race and has since returned to winning ways at Thirsk. Not the most consistent but a 5lb penalty isn’t insurmountable but stall 7 could be.

Alexander James must be respected on his first start for Mick Appleby and from a handy draw in stall 2.

King’s Knight a winner at Lingfield on his return from a 158-day break last month showed he remains in good form when a head 2^nd of 8 at Goodwood 28-days ago. Handicapper hasn’t made life easy for the 4-year-old raising him 6lb for his last time out effort and stall 8 could be better. Jim Crowley booked and he’s lightly raced so can’t be ruled out at track that should suit.

Verdict: Despite a hike in the weights Boardman is the one to beat but must break well from stall four if he’s to win. Ejtilaab is another with a good draw and drying ground makes him a serious contender. King’s Knight isn’t as well drawn as the other two but is respected given his present from.

2pts win – Boardman – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Another close-up second at the Curragh and my Irish 1,000 Guineas each way tip Fantasy Lady finished fifth in a race paying first four home.  Just one of those weekends that could have ended much better than it did.

It’s time to recharge the batteries so I’m going away for a few days break but I may have some selections for Sandown’s evening meeting on Thursday. Sandown will be my first visit to a racecourse since February 2020. Watch your inboxes for any selections.  If there are none I will be back with selections on Saturday.

I probably should get involved with a Class 5 handicap on heavy ground at Windsor but there is one that I think is well over priced.

Windsor

5:45 – Newton Jack won at Salisbury (soft) 11-days ago. She’s been raised 4lb for that success but looks capable of going close again on going that suits.  Back in fifth that day was James Park Woods. The 5-year-old was having his first start four for four months and first since a wind op. Granted, he’s only won one of his 20 career starts but he goes very well on soft ground and I think he can get closer to Newton Jack today. He’s a generally available at 18/1 which looks cracking each way price to this pundit.

1pt each way – James Park Woods – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds).

Have a good week.

John

Hi all,

Disappointing Saturday but if Rajinksy holds on at Haydock it’s a profitable one. Those fine margins some days they go with you on other’s they don’t. Still, there’s a chance to return to winning ways on Irish 1,000 Guineas Day at the Curragh today. Besides the first Irish fillies’ classic there’s also the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and a couple of big field handicaps for punters to get stuck into.

Curragh

2:40 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f

Broome has returned to action in great form winning three times, including a Group 2 success here last time. Back into Group 1 company here but likely we haven’t seen the best of the 5-year-old just yet

Stablemate Serpentine could be the biggest danger to the favourite. Was enterprisingly ridden to win last year’s Epsom Derby and wasn’t seen to best advantage on either start in Group 1 since his Derby win. He might prefer a sounder surface and will probably better for the run but if he’s ridden aggressively, from the front he might be hard to peg back. His backers will know his fate quickly.

1pt win – Sepentine – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:15 – Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) (Fillies) – 1m

Pretty Gorgeous was the best of these as a juvenile, ending last season with a decisive success in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket (soft). A worthy favourite she Looked the sort to do better as a 3-year-old and is the one they all must beat.

Joan Of Arc is an improving filly who made all to win the Group 3 Irish 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown last time. Capable of more progress with racing and will stay further.

Fev Rover made a great start to the season when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 11 in the English 1,000 Guineas. The first time cheekpieces she wore at Newmarket are retained and she’s got solid claims on easier ground.

Fantasy Lady is the one who could out run big odds. A winner over C&D Listed race on soft ground on her final juvenile start. She was 4 ½ lengths behind Joan Of Arc in the 1,000 Guineas Trial but she did fluff the start at Leopardstown and wasn’t well placed in the race as the winner. The first-time blinkers are applied and if the headgear has the desired effect, she’s got each-way claims for a yard in good form.

Verdict: The fillies mile division probably needs Pretty Gorgeous to win this comfortably. She’s the worthy favourite but I’m going with Fantasy Lady to get in to the frame.

1pt each way – Fantasy Lady – 22/1 @ Bet365 & Coral (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

3:50 – Betway Premier Handicap – 1m 2f

Dance Jupiter ended last season with a career best effort when winning a 1m 2f handicap at Naas (heavy). Probably needed the run after six months off the track when 12^th of 21 over a mile here last month. Better can be expected back over 1m 2f a trip he’s unexposed at. Dylan Browne McMonagle who rode him to win at Naas is back in the saddle and takes off a handy 5lb.

Baby Zeus is having his first start for Willie Mullins. The 4-year-old was a good 3^rd of 10 in the Ulster Derby last summer. Looks on a workable mark and should go well.

Mirann is 2lb lower than when a length 2^nd of 10 here over 1m 6f last summer. Stays further than 1m 2f so will likely need a strong pace to chase but he gives the impression that he can win a race like this when all the cards fall right.

Alghazaal shaped well enough on heavy ground when 2^nd of 17 in a Cork maiden last August. The 4-year-old broke his maiden tag when winning at Dundalk in October. Looked to have improved again when 2^nd of 12 back at Dundalk 53-days ago. Stays 1m 4f and looks the type to win more races.

Annexation, trained by Henry De Bromhead, has been running over hurdles and is having his first start on the flat since finishing a ½ length 2^nd of 17 at the Galway Festival. Now 1lb lower he’s a competitive mark although this is first start over`1m 2f on the flat. Should stay, won over 2m over hurdles, and has an each-way chance.

Verdict: I suspect we haven’t seen the best of Dance Jupiter over 1m 2f. Baby Zeus is interesting on his first start for Willie Mullins but I’m taking a chance with the nicely treated Mirann and Annexation.

1pt win – Annexation – 12/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Mirann – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:20 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF ‘Habitat’ Handicap – 1m

Bopedro, a previous C&D winner, took advantage of a falling handicap mark when winning a 7f handicap at Cork on his seasonal return last month. The return to a mile will suit and the 5-year-old remains on a competitive mark despite a 4lb rise in the weights.  Tends to be held up in races and yesterday it paid to be close to the pace at the Curragh.

Fil The Power has already had seven starts this year. A winner of a Gowran Park maiden (soft) in April. The 4-year-old didn’t get the best of passages on two subsequent starts but showed he remains on a good mark when a head 2^nd of 20 at Cork 16-days ago. Up 1lb for that effort but Colin Keane stays in the saddle and the step back up to a mile will suit.

Fame And Acclaim put in a career best effort on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 21 over C&D last time. He can race of the same mark as last time and Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off 5lb. The ground was quicker last time but he’s won on soft in the past and should be ok.

Star Of Cashel was 4^th of 24 in the Irish Lincolnshire over C&D on the first day of the new flat season and is better than his 8^th of 14 at Roscommon 12-days ago suggests. Better can expected from the 4-year-old today.

Verdict: Bopedro’s chance likely depends on how strong a pace there is. Fil The Power remains on a winnable mark. Star Of Cashel is another capable of getting into the money.

1pt win – Fil The Power – 9/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Star Of Cashel – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We could do with a dry spell of weather.  Yesterday the weather at Goodwood turned out to be worse than I thought and they raced on soft ground.

It’s Irish Guineas Weekend at the Curragh. The colt’s classic is the feature race of an eight-race card which must pass a morning inspection due to parts of the track being waterlogged.  If they do get to race it will be run on heavy ground.

Another track that will race on heavy ground on Saturday is Haydock after plenty of rain on Friday. Of the other meetings. York is soft; whilst Newmarket is also being described as good to soft and Goodwood soft. There’s likely to be plenty of non-runners around the various, particularly at Haydock.

It’s more autumn going than late spring and It’s tricky for punters at present. As I mentioned yesterday Its probably not a day to get to heavily involved in.

I have had a look at some of the races being covered by ITV.

Haydock

2:25 – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap (Class 2) – 2m

Green Book beat Positleo in the Chester Plate last time. It was a decisive success by the 4-year-old but he was able to dictate the pace that day. Positleo wasn’t as well placed but stayed on well into second.  Green Book’s been raised 10lb for that win and the runner-up gets a 7lb pull in the weights today and could reverse placing’s here, if he handles the likely heavy ground.

Rajinsky beat two rivals at Ripon last time. He’s only 1lb higher here, stays 2m, has won on heavy ground in the past and won’t be far away.

Future Investment was sent off the 7/1 joint favourite for the Chester Cup, He wasn’t well positioned from a wide draw and finished a never nearer 9^th of 16. Likely on a decent mark if all the cards fall right.

Vindolanda is closely matched with Future Investment on their running at Chester last August. A winner here over 1m 6f last July on heavy. The ground will suit the mare who’s twice won in the mud. Returned from a six-month absence with a promising enough effort at Wolverhampton last month and will be fitter today.

Verdict: Green Book won’t be held back by the going but a 10lb rise could do. Positleo is capable of better and at the revised weights can reverse placings with Green Book. A bit of juice in the ground suits the 4-year-old but heavy is an unknown. The same can be said for Future Investment. Rajinsky has won on heavy and looks on decent mark but maybe better on a sounder surface. Vindolanda best form has come in the mud and she won’t be far away.

1pt win – Vindolanda – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Rajinsky – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:00 – Join Casumo Today Silver Bowl Handicap – 1m

Raadobarg showed he handled soft ground when winning at Thirsk last time. A decent prospect and makes his handicap debut off a workable mark.

Heights Of Abraham is a decent 3-year-old as he showed when winning over just short of 1m 2f at Ripon last time. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that win but doesn’t look the easiest of rides.

Headingley didn’t seem to handle the track at Goodwood when 2^nd of 5 last time and will be better for going this way around. On a winnable mark but has yet to race on ground as testing as is likely to face today. On the plus side trainer Mark Johnson has won this race twice since 2013.

No problems with the ground for Seasett who won on his handicap debut at Nottingham last time (heavy). Has a 9lb higher mark to contend with in a better race but his ability to handle the ground is a positive. Trainer Richard Fahey has saddled the winner of this race twice since 2012.

Verdict: The likes of Raad0barg and Headlingley look on good marks but heavy ground asks another question of both. Seasett needs to improve again to defy a 9lb rise but at least he seems effective on heavy ground.

1pt win – Seasett – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:35 – Casumo Bet10Get10 Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Dragon Symbol made it 4-4 when winning a minor race at Hamilton last time. He takes a big step in class here but should be able to cope with it. An exciting sprint prospect and can win this if handling the mud.

No issues with heavy ground for Mujbar who seemed to relish the conditions when winning the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes on his final juvenile start. Never got competitive in the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal return but the drop back to 6f in the mud should be more to his liking.

Method would have claims on his seasonal return, He will be suited by a return to 6f but I’m not sure if heavy ground is what he really wants.

Verdict: A better run can be expected from Mujbar who won on heavy last autumn but the race revolves around Dragon Symbol handling testing ground. If he does, he wins.

4:10 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (Group 2) – 5f

John Quinn has a strong hand here with Liberty Beach & Keep Busy. They both make their seasonal reappearances here and handle heavy ground. The former won first time up in 2020 and could be a bit sharper than her stablemate.

Lady in France has the benefit of race fitness on her side and is another who gets her favoured underfoot conditions. Her stablemate Ainsdale goes very well in the mud but does need the other three to underperform to win.

York  

3:50 – williamhill.com Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Count D’orsay shaped like a win was close to hand when finishing runner-up at Chester two starts back. Not as good over C&D last time behind stablemate Copper Knight but it was good that day and he’s better judged when soft is in the going description where his form figures are 1121122. A big run can be expected and I can see him beating Copper Knight on this ground although that one remains on good mark on his back form.

Mondammej showed he remains on good form when a ¾ length 3^rd of 17 behind Copper Knight last time. He didn’t get the best of runs inside the final furlong. Get’s a 3lb pull with Copper Knight and would have a decent chance of finishing ahead of that one this time. However, he’s not the easiest of rides and this is his first start on ground worse than good to soft.

Pendleton returned from a 560-day absence to show he retains plenty of ability when a nose 2^nd of 18 at Ascot 15-days ago. Up 4lb but likely on a competitive mark if this doesn’t come to quick. He’s well suited to soft/heavy ground 1 win from 5 runs 4 placed.

Justanotherbottle is just 1lb higher than when beating Count D’orsay a head at Catterick on soft ground last October.  Back to form when 2^nd of 6 at Pontefract last time and is on a competitive mark.

Son And Sannie is another on a competitive mark and has a light weight in the conditions but may find a couple to good.

Zargun put in a career best effort from the front when 3^rd of 18 over 6f here last time. Showed plenty of pace last time so the drop to the minimum trip shouldn’t inconvenience the 6-year-old who is just 1lb higher here. Each way claims for a yard among the winners.

Verdict: I’m expecting a much better run from Count D’orsay on his return to soft ground. Pendleton is another soft ground performer and provided this race doesn’t come to quick after Ascot is sure to be in the mix. Zargun ran well over 6f last time and looks a serious contender.

1pt win – Count D’orsay – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Coral

1pt win – Zargun – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

There must be a big doubt about the meeting taking place given the rain that has fallen this week. If they do race the ground will be testing for the first Irish colt’s classic.

3:20 – Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) – 1m

Poetic Flare won the English 2,000 Guineas (good to firm) and wasn’t disgraced when 6^th in the French version last Sunday on softer ground. Quick turnround but likely won’t be far away again. Stablemate Mac Swiney relished heavy ground when winning the Futurity at Doncaster last season. A shade disappointing in the Derrinstown Derby Trial when only 4^th of 7 to Bolshoi Ballet on his seasonal return. He will strip fitter for that run and the testing ground will bring his stamina into play.

Lucky Vega showed he stayed a mile on quick ground when a ½ length 3^rd of 14 to Poetic Flare in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. His stamina will be tested further on this ground but he shouldn’t be far away again.

Aidan O’Brien saddles three of the 12 declared runners. Wembley, Battleground & Van Gogh. All three ran in the English 2,000 Guineas but ran well below their best juvenile form.

Van Gogh did best of the O’Brien trio at Newmarket. A winnerof a heavy ground Group 1 at Saint Cloud on his juvenile start. He will probably be better over 1m 2f but the testing ground will bring his stamina into play.

Battleground didn’t seem to handle the track at Newmarket so that run can be excused. However, I’m not sure a mile on heavy ground will be what he wants.

Ryan Moore opts for Wembley.  Runner-up in last years’ Dewhurst at Newmarket to stablemate St Mark’s Basilica, the recent French 2,000 Guineas winner, wasn’t seen at his best on quick ground in the 2,000 Guineas and a return to softer ground can see him in a better light.

La Barrosa was well behind Van Gogh at Saint Cloud last season but showed he had trained on from two to three when running stablemate Master Of The Seas to ¾ length in the Craven Stakes on his seasonal reappearance. The winner went onto finish runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas next time. It was a career best from La Barrosa who is going the right way but whether he wants the ground as testing as this is questionable.

Verdict: Mac Swiney might need further but at least he’s proved his effectiveness on heavy ground. Van Gogh won on heavy as a juvenile. Like Mac Swiney he maybe better over 1m 2f but this ground will bring his stamina into play. Wembley, the choice of Ryan Moore, will prefer this ground to the quick ground he faced in the English 2,000 Guineas.

1pt win – Wembley – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s been a quite week on the betting front for the service and today isn’t much busier today.

No less than seven races across Britain & Ireland on Friday. The feature race of seven race card at Haydock which gets underway at 1:00 is the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes (2:05). Down on the south coast there’s also Listed action at Goodwood with Height Of Fashion Stakes (2:15) & Cocked Hat Stakes (3:25) the standout races on a seven race card. Both races are the last serious chance for a colt or filly to stake a claim for an entry in the upcoming Epsom Classics.

I’m going to be approaching the next few days with a bit of caution. The weather still isn’t playing ball and more rain and showers are forecast for today and Saturday on already rain softened ground.

Hopefully the best of the weather will be at Goodwood this afternoon and I have a couple of selections from there. The first goes in the Height Of Fashion Stakes and the other is a recent course eyecatcher.

Goodwood

2:15 – Height Of Fashion Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f

This looks between Ready To Venture and Talbeyah.  

Ready To Venture will be sharper for last months Ascot reappearance and the daughter of Kingman is likely to improve for the step up to 1m 2f+, dam won over 1m 4f.

Talbeyah had no problem with 1m 2f when winning a Chepstow novice (good to soft) three weeks ago. The daughter of Lope De Vega should be fine on the ground and she’s looks a nice prospect. Has a bit to find on the numbers with likely favourite Ready To Venture but she’s open to more improvement.

Ad Infinitum shaped with plenty of encouragement on her juvenile debut at Kempton in December. The daughter of Golden Horn she should improve as a 3-year-old. Thrown into deep end for her second career start but can’t be totally dismissed.  

2pts win – Talbeyah – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:00 – Recent eyecatcher Solar Screen seemed to have been improved for the gelding operation when 1¼ lengths 3rd of 7 here (1m 6f). That was the 4-year-old’s first run since last August and he should strip fitter today. Step up to 2m looks a positive on the way he finished off his race last time and a first career win looks within reach, if he handles softer ground.

1pt win – Solar Screen – 11/2 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A much better day on what had looked a tricky Friday.

Onto Saturday’s action which sees the first domestic Group 1 for the older generation. The Lockinge Stakes (3:35) wasn’t run last year due to the pandemic. Palace Pier who made a winning seasonal return will be short price to again another Group 1 success.

There are plenty of betting opportunities for punter today but in truth I’m keeping it a bit low key.  

You can watch the best of the action from Newbury & Newmarket on ITV racing.

Newbury

3:00 – BetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f

A race which often produces plenty of future winners and this year’s field as ever see’s plenty of unexposed 3-year-olds.

Recent Pontefract winner King Frankel has arguably the best form of all the 11 declared runners but he’s vulnerable to any improvers in the field.

Highland Rocker made a winning seasonal return at Ripon and makes his handicap debut here. The John Gosden trained colt makes his handicap debut. He drops back a couple of furlongs in trip from last time but can improve further and must be respected.

Tamborrada made it 3-3 when making a winning handicap debut at Doncaster. He’s been upped 8lb for that win and does need to find more improvement to win.

Oz Legend improved on his racecourse debut to win over a mile at Newcastle in December. Maintained his improvement when a close-up 3^rd of 9 at Windsor 26-days ago. Open to more improvement on his handicap debut and has a nice light weight off 8-2.

The Sir Michael Stoute trained Bay Bridge is going the right way and won at Newcastle on his return to action last month.  Makes his handicap debut here and he’s clearly held in regard as he’s got a Royal Ascot Group 2 entry.

Dubawi Sands still looked green when winning a Ripon novice 20-days ago. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark off 86. This more galloping track should suit him better and if he handles today’s easier ground shouldn’t be far away.

Verdict: As competitive as ever. Plenty to like about Bay Bridge but he’s now plenty short enough in the betting at 11/4. My two against the field at Oz Legend & Dubawi Sands.

1pt win – Oz Legend – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Dubwai Sands – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:35 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) – 1m

Palace Pier has 8lb in hand of his rivals on official ratings and will be tough to beat.

Lope Y Fernandez made a winning return to action when winning a Listed race at Leopardstown last month. If he can improve again and the favourite isn’t at his best, he could take advantage.

Top Rank is on an upward curve and looked improver when winning at Doncaster on his return to action in March. The good to soft ground suits and if it eases further, it will suit the 5-year-old.

The lightly raced My Oberon looked to have improved from three to four when winning the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket on his seasonal return. He can progress further although he might be better on quicker ground.

Verdict: Had to look beyond Palace Pier but if you are looking for a play in the race you could do worse than the improving Top Rank especially if the ground eases further.

1pt win – Top Rank – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Newmarket

3:15 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

The second most competitive race on ITV with 16 declared to go to post for this 3-year-old only sprint handicap.

Jumby looked very unlucky when 3^rd of 9 over C&D on his seasonal return. Today’s bigger field will suit and he’s capable of more progress. Looks a worthy market leader.

Smeaton’s Light looked much improved when winning a Thirsk maiden (good to firm) 19-days ago.  He’s at the right end of the handicap and has each way claims if he handles today’s easier surface.

Kevin Ryan trained the 2015 winner of the race and he saddles Seven Brothers who made it 3-4 when just holding onto win on his handicap debut at Doncaster 22-days ago. Only up 2lb for that win and has the potential to do better still.

Tim Easterby had a good week at York and his runner Barney’s Boy comes into the race seeking a hat trick after wins at Southwell and Thirsk. The ground was soft at Thirsk last time and he’s been raised 9lb for that comfortable success.

Verdict: A solid favourite in Jumby.  At bigger prices Seven Brothers and handicap debutant Smeaton Light make some appeal.

1pt win – Seven Brothers – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Smeaton’s Light – 12/1 @ Bet365

Not sure if there will be any selections on Sunday so watch your inboxes for any updates. 

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I couldn’t build on a great Wednesday yesterday. In this game you are as only as good or bad as your last day and you must move on.

It’s the final day of York’s Dante Festival. The feature race of a seven-race card is the Group 2 Matchbook Yorkshire Cup Stakes (3:10).  It looks the trickiest of the three days from a punting perspective.

York Dante Festival – Day 3

1:40 – Langleys Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f

Instinction belied big odds (28/1) to win on her Redcar debut last month. Plenty keen enough through the race she had to overcome a tardy start and not the clearest of passages to prevail. The 4^th home May Blossom, who reopposes today, has since gone onto win.  Instinction faces a number last time out winners capable of improvement but she can get into the money. Trainer Bryan Smart had a 2-year-old winner here on day one and he looks to have some nice sharp early juveniles.

1pt each way – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

2:10 – Oaks Farm Stables Fillies’ Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial) (Listed Race) – 1m

The race see’s recent impressive Newbury winner Snow Lantern head the market. Connections decided not send the filly to the 1,000 Guineas and instead come here and that patience cam be rewarded. Seemingly at her best on good or quicker ground her backers will hope the forecast morning rain doesn’t ease the ground too much.  

Love Is You was sent off the 11/4 fav for the Nell Gwyn on last months seasonal return. Only third that day but any further easing of the ground and today’s flatter track are positives as is a return to the mile. The runner-up in the Nell Gwyn Saffron Beach gave the form a boost when finishing second in the 1,000 Guineas.

2:40 – Matchbook “Best Value” Exchange Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Trainer David Menuisier had a handicap winner here on Wednesday and could have another here with Blue Cap. The 5-year-old returned from an 8 months absence to finish a promising 2 ½ length 5^th of 10 at Epsom last time. Would have finished closer but didn’t get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong. The handicapper has kept him on the same mark one that he can win off.

Surrey Pride developed in to a useful handicapper last season winning at Newbury & Chester. The chances are we haven’t seen the best of the 4-year-old and he can win races this race. He’s handicapped to be competitive on his seasonal return and if fully tuned up could win today.

Fishable was another useful handicap performer over 1m 2f last season, including when 2^nd of 14 over C&D last October. The 4-year-old returned with an encouraging effort when 4^th of 10 at Ripon 29-days ago. Should be fitter today and trainer opts for the first time cheekpieces today. He seems ground versatile and won’t be far away.

Makram looked in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, like most of the yard’s runners. Strong in the betting last time (5/2 fav) suggests connections think he’s on a good mark. Shapes like he’s worth a try at 1m 2f and should be in the mix,

The lightly raced Satono Japan wasn’t subjected to hard race on his seasonal return 15-days ago. He’s only had the four career starts and is open to more progress on his turf debut.

Verdict: I wouldn’t put any one off favourite Blue Cap but at the prices I’m just going with Surrey Pride & Fishable.

1pt win – Surrey Hope – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Fishable – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:10 – Matchbook Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 6f

Sir Ron Priestley has returned from 571-day absence to win a Nottingham Listed race and the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last time. He’s very effective on good or quicker ground and looks the one to beat. Aidan O’Brien runs last season’s Irish Derby hero Santiago who will be sharper for his Navan reappearance and looks the danger.

3:40 – Jigsaw Sports Branding Handicap (Class 4) – 7f

Boardman was the only horse to handle the heavy ground when bolting up at Haydock 6-days ago.  Turned out quickly under his 5lb penalty he can close provided he’s not dependent on very testing ground

Shawaamekh was a big eyecatcher when a strong finishing 4^th of 14 at Chester 9-days. The previous C&D winner an race off the same mark today and is on a winnable mark.

Molls Memory is at her best on soft ground and although she hasn’t yet hit top form on either start this season, she’s on a competitive mark when she does.

Tom Collins was disappointing when well fancied for his stable debut in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Both career wins have come on soft ground so he may have found the ground a shade quick last time.

Highfield Princess was a progressive handicapper over 7f on both turf and all-weather last autumn and Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for her seasonal return.

Red Poppy has been running well enough on the all-weather over winter but she does need the first-time visor to bring out further progress to win here.

Verdict: If the ground was to ease, we could see a better runs the likes of Tom Collins and Molls Memory. Boardman is well in, if transferring his heavy ground form to a sounder surface. Shawaamekh looks nicely treated and came into the race in good form.

1pt win – Boardman – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Shawaamekh – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was great to see racing back at York. Made even better when you manage to find three winners in the big field handicaps.

The Group 2 Dante Stakes (3:10) is today’s feature race and sees the return of Derby second favourite High Definition. A winner of both juvenile starts. He gets a pacemaker for his return to action. An impressive win here would see him vying for Derby favouritism with stablemate Bolshoi Ballet.

York Dante Festival – Day 2

1:40 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Recent Chester eyecatcher Count D’Orsay heads the betting after his promising 2^nd of 9 last week. Needs soft to be in the going description and if he gets his ground and this race doesn’t come to quick will be tough to beat.

Illusionist is shorter in the betting than expected. However, his best two RPR’s have come over C&D. The 4-year-old shaped better than his final finishing position of 8^th at Newmarket suggests on his return to action.  On a winnable mark.

Muscika wasn’t seen to best advantage at Ripon last time. Twice a course winner the 7-year-old had Illusionist back in third when winning over C&D last October. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again at the revised weights.

Michael Dods is 0-26 in the past 14-days but two of his runners ran well here yesterday. That gives me hope that we can see a good run from Jawwaal. He was a shading disappointing when a beaten favourite on his Beverley return. Better can be expected here and he’s high on the shortlist.

1pt win – Illusionist – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – Jawwaal – 9/1 @ Bet365

2:10 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Chamade’s two career wins have come when she has been able to dictate from the front. There’s a good chance that she might get a solo here and if she does could be hard to pass. Might need softer ground than she’s likely to get here but at around 10/1 she appeals.

1pt win – Chamade – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

2:40 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Handicap (Class 2 – 1m

Mathew Flinders looked a valuable mile handicap winner in waiting when 3^rd of 16 in Newbury’s Spring Cup last time. His sole poor run last season came here on soft ground last October but that was over an extended 1m 2f.  Probably wouldn’t want the ground too testing but shouldn’t be far away for a yard that had a winner here yesterday.

Hartswood won over C&D last summer and was runner-up to Brunch here over C&D at the Ebor Festival. Likely needed his seasonal return in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time and will strip fitter today.

Brunch beat Hartswood by ½ length in that York handicap but must give his old rival 8lb here. He made a pleasing return to action when runner-up in the Lincoln Handicap. The 4-year-old will likely pop up in one of these races this season.

Shelir had the run of the race when only beaten a short head at Haydock last time. Nudged up 1lb for that effort but shouldn’t be far away again here.

La Trinidad looked a bit rusty on his seasonal return at Ripon. He was only beaten a length into third behind Brunch her last August and meet that one on 9lb better terms here. The stronger the gallop better his chance and he’s got each way claims.

1pt win – Mathew Flinders – 5/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Hartswood – 7/1 – Gen

1pt win – La Trinidad – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:10 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

High Definition looked high-class when winning a Group 2 at the Curragh back In September.  This track should really play to his strengths and you would like to think that stablemate Roman Empire is in the race to play the role of pacemaker.

High Definition probably deserves to head the betting but faces a several interesting rivals including, last time out Newbury winner Hurricane Lane and the returning Gear Up. The latter won a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on his final juvenile start. He looks the biggest rival to the favourite and can improve as a 3-year-old.

Uncle Bryn wasn’t seen to best effect at Epsom on his seasonal return. He’s highly regarded and better run can be expected from here. Although I would be disappointed if he was to prove better than High Definition or Gear Up.  

4:50 – Autohorn Handicap (Class 3) – 2m ½ f

Ben Lilly comes into the race in excellent form having won at Wolverhampton & Doncaster before finishing aa ¾ length 3^rd of 9 at Hamilton last time. The 3 furlong drop in distance didn’t play to his strengths last time and a return to further will suit. Up 5lb for that last effort but may have another race in him.

Frankenstella was an improving staying handicapper last season winning at Redcar in August and over C&D last September. She likely needed the run when only 4^th of 5 at Newcastle last month and she can be competitive if building on her reappearance.

1pt win – Ben Lilly – 4/1 – Gen

Cheers

John

Good morning all,

The going at York was being described as good, good to soft in places yesterday evening. Now I’m about 20 miles from York so if they had the heavy rain, we had last night then it will be soft all over on the Knavesmire.

The thing is though, last night’s weather was likely localized so it hard to say just what the ground will be like. Some more showers are forecast today. Although It’s dry and sunny at the time of writing this. So, if you having a punt today, I would suggest you wait until you know what the going is.

Racing returns to York today with the first of three days of its Dante Festival and with it the last meaningful Derby & Oaks Trials.  We have one of those trials’ today: The Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (3:10).  The feature race of a seven-race card is the Group 2 Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (2:40). You can watch the best of the action this afternoon on ITV who are showing five races from the track.

York Dante Festival Day 1

The card open with a couple of big field handicaps.

1:40 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

The rain shouldn’t phase the returning Ilaraab who put in a career best here over 1m 2f on soft ground in October. He’s starts 2021 off 7lb higher but he’s remains capable of more improvement as a 4-year-old.

My Frankel was another improver last season and made a winning return to action at Kempton last month. He’s only had five career starts so we might not have seen the best of the colt yet. Yet race on going with the soft in the going.

Sam Cooke a winner on soft ground at Chester on his seasonal return in May 2019 and a winner as a juvenile. He hasn’t delivered on his early promise and failed to win on his four starts last year. That said he’s got to be respected on his nose 2^nd of 9 at Ascot last July.

Mister Carpenter made it 2-2 at York when winning here last September. He likes a bit of juice in the ground and looks to have a nice weight. Another who won first time up last year but this is the hottest race the 5-year-old has so far run in.

Throne Hall won at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance but didn’t really improve on that performance when 2^nd of 7 at Thirsk last time. Today’s bigger field suit and better gallop should suit the 4-year-old. I think he remains capable of better than he showed at Thirsk.

1pt win – Ilaraab – 4/1 – Gen

1pt win – Sam Cooke – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:10 – Churchill Tyres Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Mr Lupton hasn’t been subjected to hard races on either start this year. The 8-year-old seems at his best in strongly run big field handicaps like this and is three-time course winner. Now just 1lb higher than when winning a valuable 6f handicap at the Curragh last September. Will need luck in running but poised for a good run

Gulliver is another who needs all the cards to fall right.  He get’s his optimum conditions today of some ease in the ground. A three-time C&D winner. He’s now 2lb lower than for the last of those wins in October.

1pt win – Mr Lupton – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

1pt win – Gulliver – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

2:40 – Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) – 6f

Last year’s July Cup winner Oxted is surely better than he was able to showon his seasonal return at Newmarket last month.

Art Power was an improving 3-year-old and he ended last season with a 1 length 4^th of 16 in the Group 1 Champion Sprint. Any further ease in the ground is a positive and he’s capable of better as a 4-year-old.

Starman looked an exciting sprint prospect when winning a Listed race over C&D (good) last September. He struggled on soft ground in the Champion Sprint on his final start. The better the ground the better his chance and he should be competitive at this level this season.

The one interesting of the 12 declared runners is Molatham.  A winner of the 7f Group 3 Jersey Stakes (soft) at Royal Ascot last year. The Roger Varian colt drops back to 6f for the first time since his juvenile debut.  Clearly very effective at 7f but if the drop back to 6f doesn’t inconvenience him he could make up into a smart sprinter as a 4-year-old.

3:10 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1 – 1m 2 ½ f

This looks a match between two well-bred Oaks contenders Teona and Noon Star.

Teona a daughter of Sea The Stars has already been well backed for the Epsom Classic and now is a best priced 5/1 for next month’s race. Both starts last season were at Newcastle and she looked a smart middle-distance prospect when winning in November

Noon Star is a best priced 9/1 for Epsom. She does have race fitness on her side after making a winning return at Wetherby 17-days ago. The daughter of high class mare Midday is capable of better than she’s showed so far.

4:50 – Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap (Class 4) – 1m 4f

Plenty of potential improvers in this Class 4 1m 4f handicap.

Lydford a winner of his final 3-year-old start at Wolverhampton returned from a 3-month absence to finish 1¼ lengths 3rd of 12 at Kempton 77-days ago. A stronger gallop would have suited him last time and he’s been gelded since that run. Lightly raced for his age, just four career starts, he’s open to more improvement.

Mark Of Gold improved for going handicapping last year winning his final two starts at Bath & Haydock. Both those successes came with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will be a bonus for the colt. First try at 1m 4f but his pedigree suggests he can improve for the step-up distance.

Flyin’ Solo was suited by the step up to 1m 2f when winning at Newbury on his first start on the grass 24-days ago. The handicapper has only raised him 4lb for that win which doesn’t look harsh and he can improve for the step up to 1m 4f. Provided they go an good gallop (seems likely) he should go close.

Hint Of Stars has been a big improver since switching from Ireland winning three of his four starts on the all-weather. Up 5lb since his latest win at Kempton in February and must prove he’s as good on grass.  Ryan Moore booked though and a big run can be expected.

Second Slip a steady improver on his three starts last season and maintained it on his seasonal return when 3^rd of 8 at Newcastle last month. He raced that day like he would be suited by a step up to 1m 4f. There should be more to come from him.

1pt win – Mark Of Gold – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes

1pt win – Flyin’ Solo – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I have a few selections from Killarney.

Killarney

6:10 – Easy Clean Limited Handicap Hurdle – 2m 6f

Max Flamingo a winner over the distance at Fairyhouse two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when 4th of 20 in a better race at the Punchestown Festival. A 7lb conditional takes the ride on the 6-year-old here and he should remain competitive.

Ben Dundee could only finish 12th in that Punchestown race. He ran better than he’s final distance beaten suggests and was still in with a chance coming two out before his stamina began to run out. The drop back to 2m 6f should suit and he’s got each way claims.

Grange Walk ran like the run was needed when 7th of 13 in novice hurdle at Limerick last time. That was the 6-year-old’s first run since October and the yard is among the winners. Like Ben Dundee he’s got an each-way chance.

1pt win – Max Flamingo – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Grange Walk – 28/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

7:10 – GMHD Killarney National Handicap Chase – 3m 2f

Fag An Bealach won the Ulster National two starts back but she’s never been the most consistent and she disappointed at Punchestown last time.  Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride but you don’t really know whether she will bounce back to her Downpatrick form.

Shady Operator fell four out in the Ulster National. This track should him better than Downpatrick and is a definite contender if his confidence hasn’t been dented by his fall. Trainer Enda Bolger has won two of the four running of the race. 

1pt win – Shady Operator – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John