Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

On Friday there’s more Group 3 action across the Irish Sea at the Curragh with a competitive looking Royal Whip Stakes (6.00) and the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes (7.00).  The latter race is likely to see the return of Ascot Gold Cup runner-up Princess Zoe.  At Newbury the feature race of a seven-race card is the Listed St Hugh’s Stakes (3:20) for the juvenile fillies.

A busy pre-Ebor Festival weekend starts here and It’s the Curragh card that interests me most although I do have a selection running at Newbury.

Newbury

3:20 – BetVictor St Hugh’s Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 5f

Delmona top rated on RPR’s and is the one to beat but she does face 18 juvenile fillies many of whom are unexposed. A speedy filly she finished a ¾ length 3^rd of 22 in the Super Sprint over C&D before going close in a Group 3 at Ascot and a Listed race at Deauville 6-days ago.

Kimngrace is one of those unexposed fillies. The daughter of Profitable is bred to be speedy and shaped with plenty of promise when a 3 ¼ length 4^th of 12 at Newmarket on her racecourse debut last month. Interesting that trainer Richard Hughes throws her in the deep end for just her second career start.

4:30 – Walhann is well treated on the best of last year’s form for previous trainer Ian Williams. James Doyle has been booked for the ride which looks a positive but he may need a strongly run race to be seen at his best.

Neenee’s Choice made all to win a Ffos Lasmaiden 24-days ago. Capable of more progression on his handicap debut for an inform yard.

Willyorwon’t He has been steadily progressive this season and put in a personal best when a ½ length 3^rd of 11 at Newmarket last time. Has been nudged up 2lb for that effort and drops back to a mile here. Still there should be more to come from the 3-year-old.

1pt win – Willyorwon’t He – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Curragh

4:55 – Rough Diamond was a strong finishing ¾ length 3^rd of 14 at Tipperary two starts back and continued in form when a 3 ¼ length 6^th of 19 in the Scurry Handicap here over 6f 27-days ago.  Drop back to the minimum trip shouldn’t inconvenience the 4-year-old.

1pt win – Rough Diamond – 9/2 @ Bet365 or 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:30 – Swift One showed much improved form to win on his nursery debut over C&D. Handicapper has hiked up 12lb for that success but he won so easily he could be capable of defying his rise in the weights.

Heytesbury Lane also won her nursery debut last time at Tipperary (soft) 7-days ago. Finished her race off strongly enough to think she will be suited by today’s extra furlong. Only up 5lb and the yard is among the winners.

Unconquerable Keen improved on his first two starts when 4^th of 15 at Naas 11-days ago. Can’t be ruled out on his nursery debut.

Arch Enemy is more exposed but she put in a career best when fast finishing 1 length 3^rd of 10 at Sligo 9-days ago. Wasn’t well placed that day after a slow start and in the circumstance her effort can be marked up. Today’s extra distance should suit and it will be interesting to see if the money that came in for her last time arrives again.

1pt win – Heytesbury Lane – 11/2 @ Bet365

1pt win – Arch Enemy – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:00 – Fitzdares Royal Whip Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

The forecast rain will suit Earlswood who improved to win a Group 3 over C&D two starts back. Not disgraced when 4^th in the Irish Derby last time despite not getting the clearest of passages two out.

Visualisation won a handicap here over a mile in May and improved further when finishing runner-up to Foxes Tales in a Royal Ascot handicap over today’s distance. Goes very well in the mud and will appreciate any further easing in the ground.  

Innisfree is a fascinating contender from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The colt is having his first start since finishing runner-up to Kameko in the 2019 Vertem Futurity. Won a heavy ground Group 2 here as a juvenile and if ready to roll after a 651-day absence will go close.

Layfayette an improving 3-year-old has progressed further this season winning the Irish Lincolnshire here over a mile on his seasonal reappearance and showed his versatility regarding distance when winning a Roscommon Listed race over 1m 4f last time. Needs to improve again but looks worth a go in Group 3 company.

Bolivar end his 3-year-old campaign with an excellent 2^nd of 12 in a Listed race at Naas. Likely in need of the run when only 6^th in a C&D Listed race on his seasonal return in June. Another who goes well on soft/heavy ground and can’t be dismissed for a trainer who is 2-5 in the past 14-days.

Verdict: It will be interesting to see how much ability Innisfree retain after his long absence. The forecast rain will suit both Earlswood & Visualisation and at the prices I just prefer the latter. Bolivar hails from a very much inform yard and isn’t out of this on the best of his 3-year-old form.

1pt win – Visualisation – 6/1 @ Bet365 or 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:00 – Comer Group International Irish St Leger Trial Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 6f

Princess Zoe runner-up in the Ascot Gold Cup is the one to beat here. Her Gold Cup performance was a career best from the mare. The forecast rain is another positive for the 6-year-old.

Twilight Payment won last year’s Melbourne Cup. A previous C&D winner he was well behind Princess Zoe at Royal Ascot but still must be respected.

Aidan O’Brien has saddled the last seven winners of the race. He runs two in this year’s contest and the best of them looks to be Wordsworth. Third in the Irish Derby and runner-up in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris. He disappointed behind Ottoman Emperor at Goodwood 15-days ago. May not have handled the track last time but should at least be suited by the step up to 1m 6f.

Barrington Court ended last season very much on the up when winning Listed races at Naas on her final starts of 2020. Likely in need of the run when only 5^th on her seasonal return at Gowran Park back in May. Looks set for an autumn campaign and goes well on soft ground. Has a bit to find with Princess Zoe on last year’s form but could get into the money.

Verdict: This looks between Princess Zoe and Wordsworth. Although Barrington Court would have place claims if bouncing back to last autumn’s best.

7:30 – Hammersmith finished a 2 ¾ length 4^th of 20 over C&D in March, off 2lb higher. His best performances on the level have come at the Curragh and if he was to bounce back to form would have each way claims.

1pt each way – Hammersmith – 25/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

8:00 – Strange Times might be a nine-race maiden but she’s shown some useful form, including when a ½ length 2^nd of 22 at Naas 11-days ago. Up 2lb but looks capable of winning races off around her present mark.

She’s In The Game has finished runner-up on her last two starts at Cork. Se’s been raised 5lb for her latest performance but is knocking on the door and can’t be ruled out. If handling the likely softer ground.

1pt win – Strange Times – 7/1 @ Bet365

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The Group 3 Desmond Stakes (6.30) is the highlight of a seven-race good card at Leopardstown. There is also Group 3 action at Salisbury and the Sovereign Stakes (4.05). For those with an interest, It’s also round three of the Racing League at Lingfield this evening.

I have had a look at both Group 3 races and I also have a selection in the last at Leopardstown.

Salisbury

4:05 – D & N Construction Sovereign Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m

Magellan runner-up to Hurricane Lane in the Dante before running below par in the French Derby. Drops in class here and will be tough to beat if not inconvenienced by the return to a mile. Fairly lightly raced. The 3-year-old takes on some useful but exposed older horses here and looks a worthy favourite to get back on track.

Solid Stone is a useful performer at Listed level and won at Windsor in May. Placed on his last two starts over 1m 2f he will be suited by the drop back to a stiff mile.

Sir Busker goes very well on Ascot’s straight course and put in a career best on RPR’s when a 2 ½ length 3^rd of 11 to Palace Pier in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot two starts back. His style of racing means he’s vulnerable in steadily tun races. However, if they go a decent gallop, he’s got the form to be firmly in the mix.

King Vega is having her first start since a gelding operation. The 3-year-old’s best juvenile form came when runner-up in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown 12 months ago. Well beaten on testing ground in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster. He was well below par on his seasonal reappearance in a novice race at Newcastle. Needs to improve to beat the principals but he’s just had the four career starts and if the gelding operation has worked could be capable of rating higher.

Verdict: Magellan looks a worthy favourite but at the prices it may pay to go with Sir Busker and the unexposed King Vega on his first start since a gelding operation.

1pt win – Sir Busker – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – King Vega – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Leopardstown

6:30 – Invesco Pension Consultants Desmond Stakes (Group 3) – 1m

Create Belief put in a Group 1 level performance on the figures when powering clear of 20 rivals in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. She’ll be a short-priced favourite to make a winning first start in Group company. However, this will likely be the quickest ground she’s run on in her career and the tempo of the race will be different to a big field handicap.

Military Style made all to win a Group 3 here last August before finishing 9^th of 10 in the Group 1 National Stakes over 7f. Hasn’t been seen since so a slight concern as to why he’s been off the track for so long.

A bigger threat to the favourite looks to be the Jessica Harrington trained Real Appeal. The 4-year-old made a successful transition from handicap company to win a Group 3 here in June. He’s been steadily progressive on his three starts this season and has won two of this three starts at Leopardstown. First run beyond a mile but shapes like he will stay.

Verdict: Hard to go against Create Belief after her Royal Ascot win but if the going has good in the going description Real Appeal won’t be far away.  

1pt win – Real Appeal – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

7:30 – Annexation, a useful dual-purpose performer for Henry De Bromhead, won a good ground handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan before finishing down the field in the Galway Hurdle last time. Shaped with promise on his sole start on the flat this year when 6^th of 11 at the Curragh in May. Form figures on the flat last season were 122 and he looks nicely treated on his ½ length 2^nd of 17 behind Sirjack Thomas at Galway last year. Stays a mile well and 1m 1f could prove the optimum for the 5-year-old on the flat.

1pt win – Annexation – 6/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The quality of action starts to ratchet up from today. We have the start of Salisbury’s two-day August meeting with the Listed Upavon Fillies’ Stakes (4.15) the feature race of a six-race card.

There is more Listed action across the Irish Sea with the Hurry Harriet Stakes (5.35) at Gowran Park. It’s a race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien and Dermot Weld. The former has saddled the winner 5 times since 2011 and the latter 3 times.

Salisbury

4:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Upavon Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f

Technique ran Zeyaadah to a head in a Group 3 at Newcastle two starts back and then as well as could be expected when a 4 ½ 4^th of 6 behind Lady Bowthorpe in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes last time. Looks up to winning a pattern race against her own sex.

Gloria Mundi a winner at Newbury on her racecourse debut in April. She improved again when running Eshaada to a neck at the same venue in a Listed race on her next start. Far to keen to do herself justice when only 7^th of 13 in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes when last seen in action. Remains capable of better and yard won this in 2015 & 2019.

1pt win – Gloria Mundi – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

Gowran Park

5:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Hurry Harriet Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 1f ½ f

I mentioned earlier, the dominance of Aidan O’Brien and Dermot Weld trained runners in this contest. Both trainers are double handed here and all four runners are contenders. The best of them could be Emaniya who looked up to Listed class when runner-up to Mehnah at Killarney two starts back. Granted she was well beaten at Galway 15-days ago but she may not have handled the very soft ground and/or the track that day.  Preference though for the improving filly So I Told You. A three-time winner this year, including C&D two starts back. The 4-year-old put in a career best effort when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 9 at Sligo 7-days ago. Looks worth a try at this level and is one of three Joseph O’Brien trained runners.

1pt win – So I Told You – 9/2 – Gen

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well, I’m glad I got involved in this year’s Shergar Cup. After the first two races I had my doubts but Graphite, not sure how he was allowed to go off at 18/1 and Dashing Roger made the day a highly profitable one.

Sunday’s racing is more interesting than Saturday’s. We have the second Sky Bet Sunday Series at Haydock.  I didn’t look at the first one at Musselburgh due to the proximity of Goodwood & Galway. However, I’m getting involved in a few of the competitive races on a seven-race card at Haydock.

Across the Irish Sea we have the juveniles taking centre stage with the Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (4:10) the feature race of an eight-race card at the Curragh. You can watch that race plus all seven races from Haydock on ITV later this afternoon.

There’s also another Group 1 race at Deauville the Prix Maurice de Gheest (2:50). Of the 12 declared runners eight are trained in Britain or Ireland. Add in the Wesley Ward trained Campanelle and its almost complete domination for the overseas raiders.

I have previewed both Group 1’s and I have a few selections from Haydock and the Curragh.

Deauville: Prix Maurice de Gheest

The going description at Deauville is very soft which isn’t likely to suit July Cup winner Starman who wouldn’t want it any worse than good to soft.  Campanelle won the Commonwealth Cup in the steward’s room at Royal Ascot. Lightly raced she won the Group 1 Prix Morny (6f) here last August. Goes well on soft ground and shouldn’t have an issue with today’s extra half furlong.

Glen Shiel was 2 ½ lengths behind Starman in 6^th in the July Cup. That was a good run on ground that would have been plenty quick for the 7-year-old. If the ground is soft, he should get much closer to Starman.

Rohaan who won the Wokingham Handicap on soft ground at Royal Ascot. He finished 10^th, 4 ½ lengths behind Starman in the July Cup but softer ground will suit him better.

Kinross has won both starts since a gelding operation, a Group 3 at Haydock and the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 12-days ago. Both wins have come over 7f and this is the 4-year-old’s first start at less than 7f. Looks worth a try in Group 1 company and is well suited by give in the ground.

Law Of Indices & Thunder Moon were separated by a head when first and second in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat here last month. That was over 7f and Law Of Indices made all that day and is more likely to be suited by the slight drop in distance. Thunder Moon reproduced his high-class juvenile for the first time this season. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again and both horses seemed well suited by the soft ground last time.

Curragh: Keeneland Phoenix Stakes

The best juvenile race either side of the Irish Sea so far this season was the Group 2 Railway Stakes over C&D on Irish Derby Day. Four of the first five home that day, including the winner Go Bears Go, run here.

I think Go Bears Go is the best juvenile colt we have seen so far this season. Prominently ridden that day he was too professional than his rivals that day and saw out the 6f well. The one they all must beat.

Runner-up Castle Star wasn’t the best away but ran on well to finish within 1 ½ lengths of the winner. Could get closer today if he breaks on level terms.

Dr Zemph was the least experienced of the field but that didn’t stop him being sent off the 15/8 favourite. His inexperienced showed as he the runner-up snatched a gap a furlong out as that one-edged right. To his credit he ran on into 4^th 2 ¾ behind the winner.

Twilight Jet wasn’t quick away and was held up from his wide draw. He made good headway between the final two furlongs to finish 5^th. He finished 4 lengths behind Go Bears Go but would have finished closer with a better start.

Prettiest is one of two runners from the Aidan O’Brien stable and the sole filly in the field. The last filly to win the race was La Collina in 2011. Prettiest looked useful when winning on her racecourse debut at Navan and then improved again when a 2-length 4^th of 15 in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. A line can be drawn through her latest run as she was found to be in season after the race. The Albany form is strong, the winner Sandrine has since gone to win a Group 2, which makes Prettiest an interesting runner.

There’s a decent supporting card at the Curragh.

3:05 – Rathasker Stud Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group 3) – 6f

William Haggas sends over Light Refrain. The 3-year-old won a Group 3 at York last time and must be respected here. It was good ground at York but she’s also effective on softer ground.

Gustavus Weston won a Group 2 over C&D (soft to heavy) two starts back and ran well when dropped back to 5f here last time. The return to 6f is a positive and he won’t be inconvenienced if the ground eases further.

Romantic Proposal was 2 ¾ length behind Gustavus Weston over 5f last time. Prior to that she had won a Listed race over C&D (good). The return to 6f is a plus and she does get 5lb from Gustavus Weston which should help her get closer today.

Power Under Me is the least experienced runner in the field. He’s placed in Group company on his last two starts. Finished a respectable third behind Order Of Australia here over 7f in a Group 2 last time. Might be capable of better back at 6f and won on soft ground on his juvenile debut last autumn.

A couple of tricky big field handicaps conclude the Curragh card.

4:40 – Bopedro wins more than his fair share of races. A previous C&D winner, he finished an excellent 2 length 3^rd of 17 to Sirjack Thomas over C&D last time. A hold up horse he needs luck in the run but should be there or thereabouts if he gets it.

Comfort Line was a 1 length 3^rd of 24 in the Irish Lincolnshire over C&D in March. Now 2lb lower but is recent form has been a bit disappointing.  Probably needs softer ground than likely today but will pop up in a handicap sooner rather than later.

5:10 – Goodnight Girl is on a long losing run but must be respected on her ½ length 2^nd of 17 over C&D three starts back. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes off a handy 3lb but the mare probably wouldn’t want the ground to ease too much.

Independent Missy a winner over an extended 5f at Navan back in April, followed that performance with an even better effort when a head 2^nd of 16 over 6f at Fairyhouse.  Not in the same form when 3 ½ lengths behind Goodnight Girl here last time.

Tresorier hasn’t been in great form so far this season but did pop up in a C&D handicap last August off 3lb higher.  It was heavy that day so if the ground was to ease further, he’s handicapped to go close.

Miss Molly T’s best form has come over 7f but she was only ½ length behind Independent Missy at Navan on her seasonal return. Has run well in two 7f handicaps since and was a 1 ½ length 5^th of 15 here last time.

1pt win – Miss Molly T – 8/1 @ Bet365 or 15/2 @ Paddy Power

Haydock

The going is heavy for the second Sky Bet Sunday Series. Given the ground not a card to get to heavily involved in.

4:25 – Illusionist took advantage of a good mark when winning at Hamilton (good to soft) in May. Hasn’t been in the same form on quicker ground since but the 4-year-old’s best form has come on soft ground and he’s got a good chance here off 1lb higher than at Hamilton.

1pt win – Illusionist – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

5:45 – Deep Sigh relished the heavy ground when beating three rivals at Doncaster last month. She’s only 2lb higher here and Saffie Osborne takes off 5lb. The one to beat if in the same form as last time.

6:15 – Mascat ran Brentford Hope to ¾ length here over a mile on heavy last October. Mostly disappointing since but did run Zabeel Champion to ¾ length at Ripon in April.

Just Hiss hasn’t been in great form on his last few starts but is well handicapped when he does bounce back. Handled heavy ground early in his career. Stall 17 isn’t great but he could run well at price.

6:40 – Eagle Court has yet to fire this season but he was an improver on soft ground last autumn winning at Redcar & Nottingham and has dropped to 1lb below his last winning mark. Wasn’t disgraced when a 1 ½ length 4^th of 8 at York over 2m 15-days ago. It was good to firm that day and he seemed to be feeling the ground. A return to soft ground and a drop back to 1m 4f makes him interesting.

Vis A Vis could be a well handicapped horse on the flat but I’m not sure he will want the ground as heavy as its likely to be today.

1pt win – Eagle Court – 8/1 @ Bet365 or 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Makanah got within a short head of a a very much back to form Mokaatil and the market certainly knew that the latter was coming back to his best.

It’s Shergar Cup Day at Ascot. The period between Goodwood and York Ebor Meeting has always been about low-grade racing. Hence the invention of the Shergar Cup to fill in on a Saturday.

ITV are covering all six races from the Shergar Cup plus two races from Haydock and one from Newmarket this afternoon.

Punters need to be on weather watch again tomorrow. It looks like light rain showers for both Ascot and Newmarket but potentially very heavy thundery showers for Haydock. 

Haydock’s going description went from good to firm to soft on Friday so if the forecast rain does arrive it could be heavy on Saturday.

The going at Newmarket on Friday evening was good and it will probably be the same tomorrow. 

Ascot is also being officially described as good. I would expect that be the same on Saturday although more rain than forecast and we’ll see easier ground.

I’m going to work on the assumption that the going at both latter tracks stays broadly the same.

The forecast weather for Haydock means for the for the very first time I have looked at the Shergar Cup card. I have also looked at the three other races on ITV this afternoon.

Ascot

12:50 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f

Stone Of Destiny loves to come off a strong pace and is well suited to a stiff 5f.  He won this race 12 months ago off 6lb lower. He hasn’t won this season but has been running well, finishing a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 16 in the Epsom Dash and has been running with credit in Group company on his last three starts. Top-weight but has a touch of class and Andrew Balding has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2011.

1pt win – Stone Of Destiny – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1:25 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m

Uber Cool made a winning return to action over 1m 5 ½ f at Chester in May. The 7-year-old has been off the track for 32 months so in the circumstances it was a fine training performance. Has been given a 70-day break and is up 5lb for his Chester win.  Could more to come returned to 2m.

Call My Bluff won three times last season and has improved again this season and comes into the race having won his last two at Nottinghan & Chester. The 4-year-old has been raised 3lb for his last win but seems certain to run his race again.

Indiananpolis is a on a losing run that goes back to October 2019. He’s run several good races this season and he stays 2m well enough as he showed last August when a 2 ¾ length 4^th of 17 at York and is now 11lb lower. Won the 1m 4f handicap at the Shergar Cup for his previous trainer.

1pt win – Indiananpolis – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:00 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) (Class 3) – 1m 4f

Sam Cooke isn’t the most reliable of handicappers but he was beaten a nose, off 2lb higher, over C&D last July. Plenty of encouragement from his 4^th of 12 at Chester last time.

Spanish Kiss a winner at York and Newmarket this season. Wasn’t ideally placed on his hat trick bid when a 2 ½ length 5^th of 9 here over 1m 6f last time. Handles good to soft ground and maybe suited by a drop back to a decently run 1m 4f. Has only had three starts on the grass so remains capable of better.

Graphite has fared better on both his starts since stepping up to 1m 4f. Last time out was he finished runner up to Duke Of Condicote at Newmarket. Up 2lb but remains on a competitive looking mark and did win on easy ground when trained in France.

1pt win – Graphite – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:35 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

Dance Fever put in a career best effort when a ½ length 3^rd of 19 in the valuable International Handicap here over 7f two weeks ago. Stays a mile and will be tough to beat but the ground won’t be as quick as last time.

Dashing Roger had looked as good as ever when winning at Sandown two starts back and improved again when a 1 ½ length 3^rd of 12 to Johan at Salisbury, with recent easy Goodwood winner Migration back in 4^tt. Up another 1lb for that effort but won’t far away here.

One of the reserves, Power Of Darkness is a previous C&D winner. He’s dropped down to a competitive mark but he may need quicker ground to exploit it.

Revich was back to his best when a ½ length 2^nd of 8 at Chester on Sunday. Can race off the same mark here.

Raising Sand love’s Ascot’s straight track. The 9-year-old hasn’t won since landing the 2019 International Stakes Handicap here over 7f.  He’s now 6lb below his last winning mark and wasn’t disgraced from a moderate draw when a 4 ½ length 8^th of 19 in that race two weeks ago.  The more rain the better and he’s become temptingly handicapped.

Bear Force One returned from 3 month lay off to finish a respectable 4^th of 8 at Doncaster 7-days ago. Didn’t seem to stay 1m 3f there and will be better suited by a strongly run mile. Yard among the winners and the 5-year-old won on good to soft at Newbury last summer.

1pt win – Dashing Roger – 9/2 @ Coral & BetVictor

3:10 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Class 3) – 1m 4f

There was just a short head between Possible Man and State Of Blisswhen the pair were first and second at Nottingham (1m 2f) last month.

Possible Man looked an improver that day and could well stay today’s extra two furlongs. It was good to firm that day so softer ground be a bit of an unknown for him.

State Of Bliss has improved again since to finish a neck behind Wink Of An Eye at Goodwood 8-days ago. He’s now finished runner-up on his three starts and shouldn’t be far away again.

Star Calibar went off too hard here over 2m last time Drop back to 1m 4f might be a positive but he faces competition for the lead here from the likes of State Of Bliss. Likely remains on a good mark if he settles and the trainer won this in 2018.

The likely strong pace could suit Contact who won at Pontefract (good to soft) two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when upped in class and distance at Haydock last time. Seemed to handle soft ground at Haydock and is one to be interested in with the race likely to be run to suit.

1pt win – Contact – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:45 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f

Royal Scimitar an eyecatcher when a strong finishing ½ length 4^th of 17 at Newmarket (good to firm) 30-days ago.  He appreciated the return to sprinting that day and has a big chance here of 2lb higher. The key to his chance though will be the ground. He withdrawn from the Stewards Cup on account of the soft ground last Saturday and needs good or quicker ground to be at his best.

Popmaster finally got his head in front when winning at Doncaster last Saturday. Seemed fine on the good to soft ground there. Up 5lb but he’s an inform sprinter going the right way.

Shark One Two put in a seasonal best when a 2-length 3^rd of 9 at Goodwood 7-days ago. The drop back to 6f should suit. He’s on a winnable mark but probably wouldn’t want the ground worse than good to soft.

Dream Composer, a 6f winner at Kempton two starts back put in a career best effort when a length 4^th of 19 here over 5f at Royal Ascot. The way he was finishing his race off last time suggests he will be suited by a return to 6f. He’s only been raised 1lb and remains progressive.

1pt win – Dream Composer – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Haydock

3:35 – British Stallion Studs EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m

Three non-runners already on account of the changed going. It’s hard to say which of these fillies will be suited by the testing ground. Passionova made a winning turf debut at Newmarket (good to firm) 44-days ago.  Lightly raced she’s steps up to mile for the first time here, should stay, and if she goes on the ground can go close.

4:10 – MansionBet Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f

All nine still stand their ground for arguably the best race of the day. Real World winner of the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot before following up in Listed company at Newbury last time. Suited by the step up to 1m 2f at Newbury and looks a Group 1 horse in the making. Both wins have come on quick ground but his pedigree offers hope that he will handle softer.

Extra Elusive got a good ride from Hollie Doyle to win this 12 months ago and followed up in a Group 3 at Windsor on his next start. Handled heavy ground at Windsor so underfoot conditions shouldn’t hold any terrors for the 6-year-old.  Hasn’t been at his very best on either start so far this season but this has likely been the plan and the trainer Roger Charlton has his horses in much better form than when he was last in action.

Euchen Glen is in the form of his career and looks likely to get the strong pace that suits him so well. Came from behind to finish a neck second in a Group 3 at Goodwood 8-days ago. Goes well on testing ground and his stamina is assured, stays 2m.

Foxes Tales seemed to relish soft ground when winning a 1m 2f handicap at Royal Ascot and improved again when a head 2^nd of 10 at Newmarket (good to firm) last time. He finished nicely clear of the third that day and looks worth his place back in pattern company.

Stormy Antarctic is another well suited by soft ground. A winner of a Listed race at Goodwood when last seen in action 77-days ago.  The rain has come at the right time for the 8-year-old and he hails from the very much in form Ed Walker stable.

1pt win – Extra Elusive – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Newmarket

2:50 – 100% Racingtv Profits Back To Racing Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Wild Beauty was no match for Inspiral, arguably the best juvenile filly we have seen so far this season, at Sandown last time. Still, she was a clear second best that day. Best form on offer and could be capable of more improvement. Both her career wins have come on soft ground.

Mark Johnson has won this race three times since 2014. He saddles Value Theory who won a C&D novice three weeks ago. She’s open to further progress and must be respected given her trainers record in the race.

Majestic Glory, seems to be coming along nicely. The daughter of Frankel made all to win over 6f here 8-days ago. The step up to 7f can bring out further improvement given her dam won over 1m 2f.

Victoria Grove shaped with promise when a 3 ½ lengths 4^th of 8 behind Inspiral on her racecourse debut over C&D in June. Ran green when asked for her effort two furlongs out but once she hit the rising ground she stayed on nicely. Big ask to win this on just her second career start but is open to improvement and could get into the money.

1pt each way – Victoria Grove – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There are a couple of interesting Class 2 handicaps on offer today. One is a five runner 1m 4f handicap at Newmarket (6:38) where last time out winners Makram and Boss Power take on course winner Zabeel Champion. Boss Power’s best form has come on the all-weather but he seems fine on quick turf ground. Makram has been steadily progressive this season and won at Sandown last time. It was good to soft that day but he’s also run well on a sound surface. Up 6lb for his Sandown win but is going the right way and looks worth a try over today’s longer trip.

The other Class 2 handicap is on a decent seven race Musselburgh card. This one is for the speedsters over 5f and has attracted a small but very competitive field.

Musselburgh

3:45 – Lord Riddiford showed he could be as good on turf as the all-weather with a decisive win at Goodwood 10-days ago. A fast pace suits as he came off a strong gallop to win last time. Any rain is welcome and he will be tough nut to crack under a 5lb penalty, if in the same form as last week.

Sunday Sovereign is another who will appreciate any rain but he was 3 ½ lengths behind Lord Riddiford at Goodwood and will need to improve plenty to finish in front of that one here.

Mokaatil won the Epsom ‘Dash’, off 4lb lower in June a reproduction of that effort would see him go close here. Another who like a strong pace but he’s not the one consistent of sprinters and he’s run well below his Epsom form on his last three starts.

Jabbarockie made it 2-2 over C&D when making all to win a valuable handicap in April before going in again at Chester the following month. He’s a real speedy horse who might get an uncontested lead with Ornate now a non-runner. However, he wouldn’t want the ground to ease much before post time.

Makanah won a Conditions race over C&D last October and shaped well enough when a 1 ¾ length 4^th of 12 at York in May. Finished last at Ascot in the first time cheekpieces, discarded today, at Ascot last time. Needs to bounce back here but is competitively weighted and the yard had a welcome winner on Sunday.

Verdict:  The inform Lord Riddiford will be tough to beat under his penalty. With Ornate now a non-runner Jabbarockie could now get an uncontested lead and if he does will be hard to pass. The ground versatile Makanah is on a competitive mark and if he bounces back from a poor run at Ascot can win this.

1pt win – Makanah – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:10 – Bodyline a useful middle-distance handicapper makes a belated seasonal reappearance. His best form has come on quick ground so the forecast rain isn’t a positive. He needs to win this to have any chance of getting into the Ebor Handicap.

The seemingly ground versatile Dark Jedi who bounced back from a poor run in the Old Newton Cup to beat five rivals at Ripon 20-days ago. He won cosily enough that day and a 3lb shouldn’t be enough to prevent the 5-year-old from following up here.

2pts win – Dark Jedi – 3/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Two selections today one from Leopardstown and one from Sandown.

Leopardstown

6:55 – Reverberation won here over a mile last June. He’s been running well this season, and a put in seasonal personal best when ½ length 2nd of 23 over today’s 1m 1f trip at the Curragh two starts back. Give his hold up style he wasn’t seen to best effect in a small field handicap at Navan last month. Needs to be produced as late as possible which means he needs luck in the run. When he gets it, he’s capable of winning one of these.

1pt win – Reverberation – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Sandown

7:37 – Dark Spec was returning from mammoth 47-month absence when an encouraging 3 ¾ 4^th of 10 at Beverley (good to firm) 17-days ago. He wasn’t given a hard race that day so the dreaded ‘bounce’ shouldn’t be a factor. The 6-year-old’s best juvenile form came with ease in the ground, although really testing ground would be a bit of an unknown.  His Beverley run showed he retains plenty of ability. If he’s over what kept him off the track for so long then he’s nicely treated and can win a race or two.

1pt win – Dark Spec – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Monday was almost a cracking day. Treacherous went agonisingly close to winning the valuable Fitzdares Sprint Series Final at Windsor on Monday evening.  He was just denied by a short head at the finish and the other race selection Chairmanoftheboard ran on to take 3rd. Bosh finished runner-up in the big sales race at Naas but was just touched off by a smart filly in Sacred Bridge.

As I said on Monday there may be the odd selection this week. Well, I have a couple of fancies from Pontefract today and one from Sligo.

Pontefract

I think trainer Tom Tate could have a good day at Pontefract. He sends three to the track for this afternoon’s meeting and they all have chances. The two I like are previous C&D winners who are back down to winnable marks and will like the quick ground. Both could run well at decent prices.

4:20 – Destroyer a winner at Leicester last June from 1lb higher returned from a 9-month absence to finish 6^th of 9 at Newmarket 11-days ago. The 8-year-old was likely in the need of the run and did win second up last season. A former C&D winner who is well suited to quick ground he’s a got a chance if he can overcome his wide draw in stall 10.

1pt win – Destroyer – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:55 – Young Tiger another Tate runner who won over C&D last July and was successful again at Doncaster in August. He can now race off 2lb below his last winning mark. Like his stablemate another 8-year-old he showed he retains plenty of ability when a 1 ¾ length 4^th of 7 at Newmarket on his seasonal return. Not in great form on his last two starts but could easily bounce back here.

1pt win – Young Tiger – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Sligo

2:17 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Connacht Oaks Fillies Handicap – 1m 2f

Double C&D winner So I Told You will popular with punters after her recent Gowran Park success. 

Miss Myers has been in good form of late, placing on her last three starts. That consistency hasn’t helped her mark though, as she has been raised 6lb for not winning.

Hamley put in her best performance of the season when running So I Told You to ½ length over C&D in May.  That filly has improved plenty since but Hamley gets a 17lb pull in the weights. Granted the 8-year-old isn’t the most consistent of horses but she has won off higher marks in the past and on a going day she’s handicapped to go close. Trainer Peter Fahey is 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +11.50 with his runners in the past 14-days which is another positive to her chance today.

1pt each way – Hamley – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Sky Bet

Cheers

John

Hi all,

A good end to the Galway Festival with two winning selections: Current Option won the feature “Ahonoora” Handicap for the second season running. However, a 30p Rule 4 to early prices was a deflating.  In the final race of the festival Bell Ex One (14/1) just got his nostril down on the line to win the second division of the 1m 6f handicap. Both selections were non-runners in the first division but hopefully some of you got on Insane Bolt the other runner I highlighted in that race preview. If went in with that one you had a cracking end to the week.

Having had a peek at the next few days racing. There won’t be any selections on Tuesday or Wednesday but there maybe one or two on Thursday & Friday. Watch your inboxes for any updates. However, there a couple of races of interest on Monday.

At Windsor there some good prize money on offer for the final of the Fitzdares Sprint Series (18:45) at Windsor on Monday and, not unsurprisingly, a big field is set to go to post. Of the 16 declared runners six of then ran at Goodwood on Saturday in either the Stewards Cup or its consolation race It will be interesting to see how many stand their ground.

The most valuable race of the week is actually taking place today at Naas this afternoon. The Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (2:25) is one of those juvenile sales races and with €300,000 in guaranteed prize money, including €148,500 on offer to the winner, it has attracted a maximum field of 24 runners.

Windsor

6:45 – Fitzdares Sprint Series Final Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

A handicap that wouldn’t be out of place on a Saturday card.

Of the 16 declared runners six of then ran at Goodwood on Saturday in either the Stewards Cup or its consolation race It will be interesting to see how many stand their ground.

Capote’s Dream has done well since joining the Tom Ward yard earlier in the year. He returned to winning ways when beating 18 rivals at York last time. He edged out Mr Wagyu that day and that one landed Saturday’s Stewards Cup consolation race. He’s been nudged up 3lb for his York success but there could be more to come from the 4-year-old.

Total Commitment was 4^th in the Stewards Cup and should give his running again if this race doesn’t come too quick for the 5-year-old.  

Operatic is the only 3-year-old in the field.  She opened her account in handicap company when getting up late over 5f here two weeks ago. A return to 6f could see her in an even better light.

Be Prepared has won two of his last five starts and maintained his good form when a ¾ length 3^rd of 17 at Goodwood five days ago. That performance came over 7f so the drop back to a sharp 6f might not suit.

Treacherous finished 13^th in the Stewards Cup consolation race on Saturday. He isn’t in the same form as he was last summer but he has shaped on a couple of occasions like he retains ability and isn’t out of this.

Chairmanoftheboard had a good 2020, winning over C&D and at Newmarket and finishing a 1 ¾ length 5^th of 27 in last year’s Stewards Cup. The 5-year-old returned from a 10-month absence to finish an encouraging 5^th over C&D. He was 2 ¼ lengths behind Capote’s Dream that day and he gets an 8lb pull with that one today. Granted he disappointed at Ascot last time but this has likely been the plan.

Verdict: Capote’s Dream looks a worthy market leader but I think he’s worth taking on with a couple at bigger prices in Chairmanoftheboard and Treacherous.

1pt each way – Treacherous – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 4 places ¼ odds)

1pt win – Chairmanoftheboard – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Naas

2:25 – Irish EBF Ballyhane Stakes (Median Auction Race) – 6f

There are five British- trained horses among the 24 declared runners.

The best of the raiders could be the Richard Hannon trained Bosh. A winner of a York maiden in June. He followed up under a 6lb penalty at Salisbury 32 days ago. The form of that Salisbury race looks old enough with both the second and third following up on their next start.   

The Tom Dascombe trained Ever Given was the decisive winner of a Goodwood nursery handicap on Friday and would have to be considered a big challenger if turning up for this.

The best of the home team appears to be the Ger Lyons trained Sacred Bridge. The well-bred daughter of Bated Breath looked a useful prospect when winning over C&D on her racecourse debut in June and then showed her versatility by winning a Tipperary Listed race over 5f.  Today’s big field provides a new test for the filly.  Has an entry in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York’s upcoming Ebor Festival.

Verdict: Sacred Bridge could be something special and a Group filly. Similarly, Bosh could be capable of mixing it in pattern company.

1pt win – Bosh – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheer

John

Hi all,

The end of long week is in sight. It hasn’t gone as well as I hoped in midweek but there is one final day to end on a high.

Sunday see’s the final day of the Galway Festival and there’s also a decent card at Chester. I’m anticipating a quiet upcoming week on the selections front. As ever watch your inboxes for any selections before Friday.  On to today’s action and my selections from Galway.

Galway

1:40 – Chavajod put in an improved effort when a 2-length 3^rd of 13 at Leopardstown 10-days ago. The first-time visor is applied today and he has handy draw in stall 2. Said by his trainer to need good or quicker ground to be at his best, connections will be hoping the rain stays away. If it does, he’s got a good chance.

Karlsberg was another to put in an improved performance last time when a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 30 over an extended 6f at the Curragh 60-days ago. Looked in need of further that day but on pedigree isn’t certain to get a stiff mile.

Hanbags N Gladrags wasn’t the best away when a 2 ¾ length 6^th of 13 on her handicap debut at Ballinrobe last time. She’s just had the four career starts so is open to more improvement and must be a contender.

Krypton Gold shaped with promise when 5^th of 13 on her handicap debut at Tipperary 32-days ago. The gelding was doing his best work at the finish that day so the drop back in trip is a slight negative. On the positive side yard’s runners are going well and they had a winner here earlier in the week.

1pt win – Chavajod – 7/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Krypton Gold – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:45 – Bardo Contiguo comes into the race in good form having finished a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 14 at Killarney 19-days ago. The cheekpieces he wore that day are retained but stall 19 won’t be easy to overcome.

The Mpex Kid was well beaten here early in the week but he did finish a neck second in this race 12 months ago, off 6lb higher. Comes with rosks attached but he’s well handicapped if the first time cheekpieces can produce a return to form and the 5-year-old has good draw in stall 2.

Excuzio Joe won over C&D last October, off 2lb lower. Never involved from a wide draw here earlier in the week. However, that was her first start for 9 months and she’s better drawn here in stall 3. Might prefer softer ground but Colin Keane takes over in the saddle.

1pt win – Excuzio Joe – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – The Mpex Kid – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:15 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Ahonoora” Handicap – 7f

The feature race of the final day of the Galway Festival with €59,000 on offer to the winner. Last year’s winner Current Option bids for back-to-back wins. He’s got a touch of class having gone onto win a Listed race at Cork and a Group 3 at Tipperary after his win here. He finished 7^th here early in the week, the same race he ran in 12 months ago before winning this. The top-weight 5-year-old is 6lb higher this time around but a 7lb claimer has been booked to negate his rise in the ratings. Big chance from stall 1.

The overnight favourite is last time out Roscommon winner Soaring Monarch. The handicapper has taken a dim view of his last win, having raised him up 11lb. Finished twice here, including C&D, at last year’s festival so handles the track well. Goes well on soft ground so won’t be inconvenienced if the rain arrives, has also won on good. High on the shortlist despite a career high mark.

Stone Soldier and On A Session travel over from England. Stone Soldier took advantage of a lower turf mark to win at Haydock last time. He’s up 6lb here but remains 9lb below his all-weather mark. On A Session finished runner-up in this race in 2019 and was third 12 months ago, now 3lb lower.  Has been a bit in an out for trainer David Barron this season although he’s shaped with promise on a couple of occasions. Poor performance on quick ground in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time but maybe better going around a bend.

Quizical goes well here finished a 1 ¾ length 5^th in this race last year off 3lb higher and finished runner-up, from a high draw, here earlier in the week. Tends to do his best work at the finish and maybe better over a furlong further. Connections will hope the rain arrives to ease the ground and if it does, he’s handicapped to go close again.

Verdict: A high quality renewal of the feature race. Last year’s winner Current Option has a good chance of back-to-back wins.  Quizical maybe needs a mile and/or softer ground but he’s nicely treated and in good form. Both English raiders Stone Soldier and On A Session need respecting. As does recent winner Soaring Monarch.

1pt win – On A Session – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Current Option – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

4:50 – Insane Bolt finished runner-up here in 2019 when trained by Gordon Elliott. Shaped much better on just his second start for new yard when 4^th of 20 over hurdles here 3-days ago. Having just second run on the flat beyond 1m 2f and if he stays won’t be far away,

Final Endeavour ran well when a 3 ¾ length 2^ndof 12 at Fairyhouse 3 weeks ago. Won here last October, off 2lb lower. Likely to have been aimed at this race but has a tricky wide draw, for a prominent racer, to overcome

Buckman Tavern returned to winning ways at Leopardstown 17-days ago.He’s up 3lb here but remains on competitive mark based on his 2019 form when trained in England. Could be more to come from the 5-year-old.

1pt win – Final Endeavour – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Buckman Tavern – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

5:20 – Varna Gold was strong at the finish when third here over hurdles two days ago. Prior to that the 4-year-old had finished a 2-length 2^nd of 12 on the flat at Bellewstown. Good chance of going one better here but stall 19 makes it difficult.

Bell Ex One was in good form in the spring winning at Gowran Park and finishing runner-up at Roscommon and Sligo. Returned from a short break and wasn’t disgraced when 6^th of 13 here 6-days ago. First attempt beyond 1m 4f but looks a worth a try over the new trip.

1pt win – Varna Gold – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Bell Ex One – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John