Category: Victor Value

Hi all,

The best of Tuesday’s racing looks to be this evening at Newbury and Salisbury.  Newbury’s feature race is a Class 2 Mile handicap (5:45) and Salisbury’s has an interesting 6f conditions race (6.05). I have selections in both races.

Newbury

The going at Newbury is good, good to soft in places but it’s set to be dry so the ground is likely to tighten up a shade. A decent sized field of 12 have declared for this Class 2 handicap although the drying ground could see several non -runners before post time.

5:45 – BetVictor Proud Sponsors Of Newbury Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

The market is likely to be headed by Troll Peninsula who we haven’t seen in action since impressing when winning at Kempton novice in March. He’s only one start on turf at Redcar (heavy) last autumn. Looks on a handy mark for his handicap debut but will he run if the ground quickens up?

Chance was progressive handicapper in 2020 and is having his first start since finishing down the field in Meydan in January. He went close on his seasonal reappearance last season so should be fit enough here.

King Ottokor has form on quick ground and has run well over C&D in the past. However, he’s another who’s best form has come when he gets his toe in. Easing down the weights though and is handicapped to win he gets his conditions.

Power Darkness posted a seasonal best when coming from behind to win at Newmarket last time. A strongly run race and quick ground are his optimum conditions and although he’s up 5lb in the weights but should remain competitive with the first time

Itkaann has improved with each of his three starts this season. The 4-year-old looked a bit unlucky in the run when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 7 at Nottingham two starts back and ran just as well when a close-up 4^th of 12 at Thirsk last time. Ground will be fine and the first time cheekpieces are an interesting addition.

Bear Force One has yet to hit form on his two starts this season but he’s dropped down to his last winning mark. The 5-year-old is suited by a sound surface and has won here in the past. Not discounted with Ryan Moore (2-5 when combining with trainer Roger Teal) up for the first time.

Verdict: It’s been a long time since we have seen the progressive Troll Peninsula and he could be well ahead of his mark on handicap debut. However, at the prices I prefer a couple against him.  Itkaann gets the first-time headgear and has been running like he can land a handicap off his present mark. Bear Force One is back down to his last winning mark and Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.

1pt win – Itkaann – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Bear Force One – 9/1 @ Bet365 or 8/1 @ Coral

Salisbury

6:05 – The sole older horse Roulston Scar is a now a non-runner. That just leaves just the five 3-year-olds to compete for this 6f sprint. There doesn’t seem to be much pace on so Mighty Gurkha could get a solo up front.

Albasheer is having his first run since finishing 6^th of 14 in last year’s Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes. A quick ground winner at Doncaster on his juvenile debut he also ran Chindit to a length in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at the same venue.  Belated seasonal return but remains capable of better if he’s trained on.

St Lawrence hasn’t been seen since disappointing in the Group 3 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock in May but he’s better judged on his 1 ¼ length second to Rohaan in a Group 3 at Ascot in April.

Jumby bounced back to form when 3^rd to the well handicapped Great Ambassador in a Newmarket handicap 10-days ago.  Capable of going close here but can’t afford to be as slowly away as he was last time.

Arguably the most interesting runner is Prop Forward. The 3-year-old built on the promise of his C&D racecourse debut when easily winning a Bath maiden (good to firm) 20-days ago. He looks a nice prospect and although he’s thrown in the deep end here, he’s got scope for further improvement.

Verdict: You can’t discount any of the five runners. Former useful juvenile Mighty Gurkha hasn’t really hit form this season but could get the race run to suit. Prop Forward is the least experienced of these and the outsider but he’s open to more improvement.  

1pt win – Prop Forward – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Four days of fantastic racing at York is over. I thought it was an excellent Ebor Festival and what a difference spectators made compared to 12 months ago. Friday’s Lonsdale Cup’s thrilling finish between Stradivarius & Spanish Mission deserved to be watched by a big and appreciative crowd.

On the punting front it was tough four day but I managed to finish with a profitable Saturday thanks to Sonnyboyliston, winning the Ebor, Shanroe finishing 4^th in the same race and Ravenscraig Castle finishing a close up third in the Melrose Handicap.  

I think we could have done a bit better. There were several that went close in their respective races. If one of those goes in then we’ve had a profitable meeting. I was also I a bit annoyed with myself for not going with Migration yesterday. So, it could have been better but it could have been a lot worse. I did roll the dice a little by concentrating on York and If it hadn’t paid off, we would have a significant loss over the four days.  Instead, we got through it relatively unscathed unlike plenty of punters and tipsters.

Sunday see’s the second Sky Bet Sunday Series at Sandown. Two weeks ago, the Haydock meeting had to be postponed to due to waterlogging.  It’s a seven-race card and the great prize money has led to big fields. I can’t remember the last time a flat fixture at Sandown has seen over 100 runners declared.  The moral of the story is: Put up the prize money and the horses turn up like they did at Musselburgh for the first Sunday of the series. Even better you can watch all seven races on ITV this afternoon.

Over at Deauville there are two competitive Group 1 races. However, I have concentrated Sunday’s preview on the Sandown card. I have four selections from there and hopefully there is among them.

Sandown

3:55 – The first race is for unraced juveniles. There are several well-bred 2-year-olds from top yards so it’s a race that will be worth watching if not betting on.

4:20 – An apprentice handicap with a maximum field of 17 declared to run. Looking at the stats there have only been five handicaps at the track since 2008 that have seen a maximum field and you must go back 7 -years for the last time.

Mascat has been mainly disappointing since winning as juvenile. His losing run now stands at 13 but he’s put in a couple of efforts this season that would put in him with a good chance here. The 4-year-old ran Zabeel Champion to ¾ length at Ripon in April and finished a 1 length 4^th of 10 over C&D in June. However, he’s disappointed on his last two runs.

Glencora twice a winner earlier in the season at Yarmouth & Leicester has continued in decent form and failed by just a nose to win at Leicester last month. Nudged up another 2lb but looks sure to go well again.

1pt win – Glencora – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

4:50 – Just the ten runners for this nursery handicap. Latin Lover seemed to improve for the step into nursery company at Catterick 6-days ago when losing out by a short head. Can race off the same mark here and return to a straight track and a stiff 5f should suit the colt.

Fast Response won a soft ground 6f maiden at Windsor last month and returned to winning ways when winning at Musselburgh (good) 16-days ago. Makes her nursery debut off a workable mark and shouldn’t be far away.

Amazonian Dream took advantage of a drop-in class and step into nurseries for the first time when winning at Newbury 9-days ago. He was slowly away that day and, in the circumstances, did well to get up on the line. Up 6lb but should remain competitive and Osin Murphy is back in the plate.

5:20 – Another maximum field of 17 for this 5f handicap. David Barron is 0-32 in the past 28-days. His last winner was Modular Magic who is one of the leading fancies here.  The 4-year-old did well to win last time at Musselburgh, making all from a low draw. He’s been raised 4lb for that success but is open to more progress and won’t be far away if in the same form as last time. Tentative pick of his low draw isn’t an inconvenience.  

Global Prospector bids for the four timer. He’s up 6lb for winning at Bath 40-days ago and up a notch in class. That said he’s going the right way and can’t be ruled out.

King Of Stars, an improving handicap sprinter on a sound surface on his first three starts this season. He’s got to be respected on his neck 2^nd of 14 to Twilight Calls at Newmarket last month. Soft ground was against him at both Goodwood and at the Shergar Cup last time. A return to quick ground could see him return to winning ways with Silvestre De Sousa back in the saddle.

The forecast strong pace means Be Proud must be respected. A good second at Musselburgh on Friday night. Needs to come off a strong pace which he should get here. William Buick up for the first time.

1pt win – Modular Magic – 5/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

5:45 – Another cracking field of 14 for this 1m 6f handicap which looks the best race on the card. Praiano needed every yard of the 1m 4f when getting up to win on his handicap debut at Leicester two weeks ago. The 3-year-old has only been raised 3lb for that success and should be suited by today’s extra two furlongs.

Vis A Vis a useful staying handicapper winning a CAD handicap, off 3lb higher back in 2018. He’s been lightly raced since then but showed he retains plenty of his old ability when an encouraging 2 ½ length 6^th of 9 at Ascot last month.  Well handicapped, if stall 13 isn’t an inconvenience.

Cormier has returned to action this season in good form winning at Pontefract & York before a below par effort at Newcastle last time. Both wins came over 1m 4f but he stays 1m 6f. Return to turf a plus for the 5-year-old and De Sousa booked for the ride.

Tagood has been very busy since April, this will be his ninth start, but he seems to be improving with racing and put in a career best when a ½ length 2^nd of 11 at Nottingham 12-days ago. Up another 2lb in a higher class but his improvement may not have ended.

Ravens Ark made it 2-2 at Brighton when winning at the seaside track 17-days ago. The fitting of the first time cheekpieces seemed to have the desired effect as he found plenty for pressure to get up in the final strides. The drop back to 1m 4f almost didn’t work though as he was one of the first off, the bridle. Up 3lb but the return to 1m 6f will suit and he ran well here two starts back.

1pt win – Vis A Vis –  9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

6:15 – A fillies 1m 1f handicap which has attracted 14 runners for what looks a tricky little contest. The two I like most are Strawberri and Crema Inglesa.

Strawberri bids for the hat trick after wins at Haydock and on her handicap debut at Beverley 50-days ago. Looked to be well suited by the stiff mile at Beverley last time and should improve for the step up to 1m 1f here. Up 6lb but the 3-year-old is open to plenty of improvement but does seem to be well suited by plenty of ease in the ground so drying ground would be a concern.

Crema Inglesa resumed winning ways over C&D 17-days ago. A winner previously on good to firm she improved for racing on good to soft when winning here last time. She’s steadily progressing and although she been raised 7lb for he last success, Saffie Osborne takes off 5lb, there maybe more to come from the 3- year-old if there is ease in the going.

6:45 – Bucephalus a soft ground winner at Pontefract in May has remained in form on his latest two starts. He seems likely to go well again but ideally wants more juice in the ground.

Global Spirit probably prefers a sounder surface to be seen at his best. The 6-year-old was a neck second, off today’s mark, in the Carlisle Bell and after a disappointing effort at Newmarket hasn’t run badly at York and when a ½ length 3^rd of 12 at Thirsk last time. Knocking on the door this season and should go well again here. However, he needs all the cards to fall right if he’s to win of his present mark.

1pt win – Global Spirit – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the final day of York’s Ebor Festival.  The Group 3 Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (1:50) opens a seven race card and it’s another opportunity to see the exciting Real World in action.  

Next up is the 3-year-old’s Ebor Handicap with the latest running of the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (2:25) for which a maximum field of 22 have been declared for the race which has £125,000 in guaranteed prize money.

The Group 2 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (3:00) is the final Group race of the meeting. Last year’s winner Safe Voyage bids for back-to-back wins in the race but this looks a tougher heat with Space Blues likely to be a warm favourite.

The highlight of the seven-race card and the big betting race of the week is of course the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (3:35).  There’s £500,000 in guaranteed prize money with £300,000 on offer to the winner of this year’s renewal.

ITV are covering all four races. Plus, two from Sandown as part of a six-race programme.  I’m concentrating on the handicap races from a betting perspective in today’s preview.

York Ebor Festival – Day 4

It’s going to be a case of weather watch as fair bit of rain is being forecast for York on Saturday.  It will be interesting to see how much falls but my weather app is indicating 7mm of the wet stuff.

2:25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f

Trainer’s William Haggas, Hughie Morrison and Andrew Balding have saddled four winners in the race since and they are my way into the race.

William Haggas won this with Hamish (2019) and Guarantee (2012). He runs one of the market leaders in Dhushan.  A winner at Haydock and Musselburgh (handicap debut).  He couldn’t complete the hat trick at Ascot but was only beaten ½ length into second and wouldn’t have been suited by the steady gallop. He’s up a further 3lb but is one for the shortlist.

Hughie Morrison saddled the winner in 2014 and the third last year. He relies on Surrey Gold who took advantage of a lenient handicap work to win at Newbury (good to soft) in May. Returning from a 57-day break he was even more inconvenienced by the steady pace than Haggas horse in the Ascot race. He was doing his best work at the finish last time and managed to get within 3 lengths of the winner at the line.  He’s 3lb better off with Dhushan so there shouldn’t be much between the pair. Although this would be his first start on going quicker than good to soft.

Interestingly runners who finished outside the first four on their last start are 6 winners from 46 runners +41 13 placed since 2009. That’s 50% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners. So, It wouldn’t be put me off a horse if they finished outside the places last time.  

Besides Surrey Gold that also brings Hard To Fault into the mix. The Tim Easterby trained runner won a Carlisle maiden two starts back and the Racing Post Topspeed figure was good so the form of that race looks decent. A slow start on his handicap debut at Newcastle compromised his chance last time. Capable of better given a decent pace to chase and the yards runners have been going well here this week.

John & Thady Gosden saddle a couple of live contenders in Marshall Plan, who finished three places in front of Hard To Fault in the Newcastle race and Imperial Sun. Marshall Plan shaped that day like he would be well suited by the step up to 1m 6f. Imperial Sun has progrssed with each start this season and improved for the step up to 1m 4f when winning a Wolverhampton handicap 46-days ago. His half brother Harbour Law won the 2016 St Leger so there’s a good chance that more improvement will be forthcoming for today’s trip.

Moshaawer, trained by Roger Varian, won his first two starts this season at Kempton and on quick turf at Doncaster. Possibly wasn’t suited by a tactical race on his Newcastle handicap debut when only 3^rd of 6 last time. Capable of better in a stronger run race.

Andrew Balding saddled last year’s winner Coltrane. He saddles recent Ffos Las maiden winner and handicap debutant Valley Forge.  Not a certain stayer on pedigree but his Ffos Las win over 1m 4f suggested he should be fine with it.

Summer Knight and Ravenscraig Castle both come into the race seeking the hat trick. The former’s two wins have come over the distance so no stamina concerns for him indeed he should stay further. Now 8lb higher in a deeper race but the son of Camelot might not have reached his class ceiling yet. Ravenscraig Castle, trained by Ian Jardine, is 2-2 in 2021 and showed he was well suited to 1m 5f when comfortably beating three rivals at Ayr last month. He’s been raised 5lb for his Ayr win but today’s extra furlong can bring out more improvement. On the figures he seems to have a similar chance to Summer Knight. Yet he’s twice the price. If he was trained by one of the top Newmarket yards, he would be a single figure price.

Verdict: Plenty of potential improvers like Dhushan, Moshaawer and Valley Forge from top yards. Marshall Plan and Imperial Sun give the Gosden’s a strong hand in the race with a preference for the latter.  Surrey Gold needs the rain to arrive but if it does he’s got a good chance. At bigger odds Hard To Fault and Ravenscraig Castle have each way claims.

1pt win – Imperial Sun – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Ravenscraig Castle – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Surrey Gold – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) – 1m 6f

My favourite race of the flat season and one I have had a decent record in. I found last year’s winner Fujaira Prince and the winners in 2017, 2013 & 2011. I have a shortlist of eight for this year’s renewal.

Hamish returns from a mammoth 458-day break but if any trainer can prepare on for an Ebor Handicap its William Haggas. I fancied this one for last year’s but he couldn’t run.  The 2019 Melrose Handicap winner is 2-2 over C&D and looks on a winnable mark but he will want the rain to arrive to ease the ground.  Haggas also saddles another York specialist in Ilaraab. He made it 2-2 here when winning a 1m 4f handicap in May. Only 4/1 for the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot but only 8^th of 10. He’s better than he was able to show there but like his stablemate he would like some ease in the ground. First try beyond 1m 4f and if his stamina holds gives his trainer a strong hand in the race. Tom Marquand opts for Hamish which suggests he’s the stable’s number one. The trainer would dearly like to win the race but his race record is 0-7 although he did have 4^th last year.

Trainer Johnny Murtagh saddled the winner of the Ebor in 2014 and has a big contender in the shape of Sonnyboyliston.  The 4-year-old improved to win three handicaps last year, all three wins coming on good to soft. Has been campaigned in Group/Listed company this season and won a 1m 4 ½ f Listed contest at Limerick two starts back. A useful 4 ½ length 6^th of 10 to Hukum in a C&D Group 3 last month. The cheekpieces are on for the first time this season and he did win in them last first-time last September. Dam stayed 2m 4f over hurdles so there’s a decent chance he will stay beyond 1m 4f to. Has been well backed ante post in the past week.

Trainer John Gosden saddled the winner of the Ebor in 2018. He’s got a very interesting contender in the lightly raced Humanitarian. The 5-year-old has only had the six career starts, winning three of them. First run since winning on his handicap debut at Newbury last September (1m 4f) and he’s only 4lb higher here. The first-time hood has been applied, he was very keen at Newbury, and if the headgear can settle him, he will have a decent chance of staying the distance. Yard has an exceptional record with runners in the first-time hood. Since 2016 – 17 winners from 55 runners 31% +71.29 31 placed 56% (+84.84). Best turf form on good or quicker ground so a lot of rain would be a slight concern.

Quickthorn relished testing ground when winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. Not as good on quicker ground when two places behind Hukum in a C&D Group 3 last time. He’s only had seven career starts and is just 6lb higher than for his Royal Ascot success. If the rain does arrive to bring soft into the going description, he’s a big contender.

Tribal Craft is another who would prefer plenty of ease in the ground. The mares best four RPR’s have come on soft ground. She posted a career best on RPR’s when a 2-length runner-up to Wonderful Tonight in the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood. This is her distance and given her present form can’t be ruled out easily.

You must respect a Wille Mullins trained runner. He saddled the Ebor winner in 2009 and runner-up in 2015. He relies on Mt Leinster. The 7-year-old has only had four starts on the level and ended 2020 winning his last two at Listowel & the Curragh. It’s his first start for 314-days but he’s gone well fresh in the past and his form figures when returning from a 121+ day layoff are 121. He should be fit enough for his return. This is his trip but he’s another who will probably want plenty of rain to arrive before post time. His best form on flat and over hurdles has come on soft ground.

Shanroe made it 3 wins from just 5 starts on the flat when winning a 1m 6f Premier Handicap at the Curragh last time. Looked like he needed every yard when winning at the Curragh and the harder they go here the better his chance. Another who will be looking for the ground to ease and if it does the 7-year-old is a lively each way contender for Irish trainer Karl Thornton.

Verdict: Plenty of connections will be hoping the rain arrives before post time. Hamish is one I really like but he does need some juice in the ground as does his stablemate Ilaraab. Sonnyboyliston could give his trainer Johnny Murtagh another success in the race. The more rain the better for Quickthorn the same can be said for Shanroe who has appealing claims. Given the Gosden’s record with horses racing in the first time It may pay to keep Humanitarian onside. It’s his seasonal reappearance but he won first time up last season. One of the fancied contenders who may prefer the rain to stay away though. Tribal Craft bring some classy form to the race and any rain enhances the mares claim. Mt Leinster has potential on the flat despite being a 7-year-old.

1pt win – Humanitarian – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt each way – Shanroe – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (14/1 @ Sky Bet who are paying 8 places).

1pt win – Sonnyboyliston – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

Two Class 2 handicaps conclude this year’s Ebor Festival and I’m banking on the rain arriving in decent amounts.

4:45 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Migration came from the rear and showed a nice turn off foot to quicken clear of 10 rivals to win a Class 2 handicap at Goodwood last time. He handled the soft ground well that day so ant easing in the ground will be appreciated by the 5-year-old who is having his first start at York. Up 8lb for his Goodwood win but likely capable of better. William Buick stays in the saddle.

The 3-year-old Qaader was another decisive Goodwood (good to soft) winner last time. He’s also been raised 8lb for his last win but is a 3-year-old going the right way. Another having first start here.

Aerion Power was 4 lengths behind Qaader at Goodwood but gets an 8lb pull. The 3-year-old should get closer to that one today but probably wouldn’t the ground to ease too much. Stablemate Wahraan comes into the race bidding for hat trick after winning a Pontefract maiden and then improved again to win on his handicap debut at Newmarket last time. He might get further than 1m 2f but is an improving 3-year-old who should go well.

Another who would prefer good ground is Strait Of Hormuz. The 4-year-old bounced back to his best when a ¼ length 3^rd of 20 in the John Smiths Cup over C&D last month. Up 4lb but won’t be far away if the ground stays on the quick side.

Tim Easterby who is having a good festival saddle’s Fishable. The 4-year-old likes a bit of juice in the ground and is effective over a mile and a quarter. He’s run well here before, finished a ¾ length 2^nd of 14 over C&D last October and put in a career best when a 2 ¼ length 5^th of 20 in the John Smith’s Cup last time. He’s just 3lb higher than when winning on soft ground at Ripon in May. If the ground eases he’s got each way claims.

Harrovian returned from a 3-month absence to finish a head 2^nd of 8 at Doncaster 21-days ago. The 5-year-old is entitled to be there or thereabouts again off just 1lb higher. Maybe better in smaller fields and three career wins have all come on good to firm ground.

Snow Ocean put in a career best on turf when getting up on the line to win at Chester last month. Up 4lb but a 5lb apprentice who had a winner here earlier in the week has been booked for the ride which negates his rise in the weights. Each way claims if as effective on this more galloping track.

Verdict: Strait Of Hormuz needs the rain to stay away. Fishable wants juice in the ground and if he gets it can go close.  Migration is a worthy favourite and goes well with ease in the ground. Wahraan is an improving 3-year-old who should be in the mix on his bid for a hat trick.

1pt win – Fishable – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

5:20 – Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap (Class 2) – 5f

Blind Beggar showed plenty of pace from the front when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 14 here over 6f (good to firm) 28-days ago. Given the speed the he showed last time the drop back shouldn’t inconvenience the 3-year-old and has the capable Joanna Mason in the saddle.  Sole career win came on heavy at Catterick in May so any rain won’t compromise his chance.

Tim Easterby has won this race twice in 2016 & 2018. He saddles Showalong.   A Chester winner over 5f on good to soft ground in May. Not disgraced when 5^th of 17 here over 6f on quick ground in June.  He won over C&D last autumn on soft ground so goes well with plenty of ease in the ground. Just 4lb higher than for his Chester win he loosk set for a big run given the form of the yard.

Blackrod finished 1 ¾ length and three places in front of Showalong in the York race and subsequently went on to win a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket on his next start. He’s an improving handicap sprinter but meets the Easterby horse on 11lb worse terms here. Not sure about the drop back to the minimum trip but trainer Michael Dods has saddled the winner of this race three times since 2017.

Nigel Tinkler saddled the winner of this in 2015 and he runs Imperium Blue who showed he handled good to soft ground well enough when a ½ length 2^nd of 6 at Haydock last month. Won a 5 ½ f nursery here last autumn.

Kevin Ryan won this in 2014 and he’s got a couple of live contenders in Digital & Ben Macdui. A soft ground Musselburgh winner as a 2-year-old he returned to winning ways when beating three rivals at Ripon 12-days ago. Prior to that he had finished a good 3^rd of 13 in a strong Goodwood 5f handicap. He’s 3lb higher than for his Ripon win but the trainer has booked Saffie Osborne for the ride. Ben Macdui can’t really be fancied on his form this season but he would be competitively weighted on his ¾ length 2^nd of 10 in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at last season’s Qatar Goodwood Festival. The first-time blinkers are added and if the headgear has the desired effect he wouldn’t be far away.

The very much in form Grant Tuer saddles Tashgheel who is having first run for the trainer since leaving the Dermot Weld stable. The gelding responded to the reapplication of the visor when winning a Listowel maiden in June. That win came on soft ground and over an extended 6f. Should be able to win races but the visor he wore last time is removed and I’m not sure about the drop back to the minimum trip.

Verdict: Blind Beggar and Showalong are big contenders with the latter capable of giving trainer Tim Easterby a third win in the race if the ground has eased. Kevin Ryan’s Ben Macdui is interesting in the first-time blinkers and he’s nicely treated on his juvenile form if the headgear works. Tashgheel is interesting on his first start for Grant Tuer but maybe better over further. Blackrod is an improving handicap sprinter but is another who maybe better over 6f.

1pt win – Showalong – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day three of the Ebor Festival.  I managed to break my foot so spent most of yesterday’s racing in A&E so this preview is a bit shorter than previous ones.

Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35) and 15 sprinters led by Suesa and Golden Pal are set to blaze down York’s 5f course. There’s a good supporting card with two Group 2 contests. Former Champion Stayer Stradivarius who missed the Goodwood Cup due to soft ground bids to win the Group 2 Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (2:25) for a record third time.

After yesterday’s Lowther Stakes it’s the turn of the juvenile colts & geldings to shine in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (3:00).

1:50 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 4f

Wink Of An Eye has been cleverly placed to win his last four handicaps. He won with a bit more in hand the winning margin at Goodwood suggests last time. Up 4lb and on ground quicker ground but can’t be ruled out.

State Of Bliss was a neck behind Wink Of An Eye at Goodwood and has since boosted that form when stepping up to 1m 4f to win at the Shergar Cup. Stayed well that day but now has to give Wink Of An Eye 4lb.

Strawberry Rock responded well to the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning at Windsor on his seasonal return. Ran just as well when runner-up to Untold Story at Newmarket last time. Must be respected off just 1lb higher here.

Dark Jedi won nicely at Ripon two starts back over today’s trip. Travelled better than anything coming two 2f but his stamina seemed to run out over 1m 6f. The return to this distance is a plus and he ran well here last year.

Throne Hall ran as if something was amiss when almost pulling up at Newmarket 42-days ago and didn’t run to well at Royal Ascot either. Had been in good form in the spring though winning at Doncaster and finishing a ½ length 2^nd of 7 at Thirsk. He also posted an excellent effort over C&D when a 3 ½ length 3^rd of 15 to Ilaraab at the Dante Meeting. In the mix if bouncing back to his earlier form.

Verdict: The handicapper has struggled to get a handle on the progressive Wink Of An Eye. He’s the one to beat with Throne Hall and Dark Jedi his main dangers.

1pt win – Dark Jedi – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Throne Hall – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

2:25 – Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) – 2m

An opportunity for Stradivarius to bounce back and make history by winning the race for a third time.

Trueshan surely won’t run on quick ground that leaves Spanish Mission who won the Yorkshire Cup here in May and finished a placed ahead of the favourite in the Ascot Gold Cup.

Willie Mullins brings over Stratum who isn’t totally out of this on his best form. Stays 2m 4f on the flat as he showed when winning the Ascot Stakes at Royal meeting. Mullins saddled the winner of this in 2015.

Verdict: Can Stradivarius return to his best?  Stratum finished runner-up in this race 12 months ago and has a better chance than his odds suggest.

1pt win – Stratum – 14/1 @ William Hill

3:00 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Lusail had Asymmetric and recent Group 1 Ebro River winner behind when winning the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket last time. He faces 10 rivals here but will be a warm order to give Richard Hannon a second win in the race.

Berkshire Shadow a winner of his first two starts including the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (good to firm). Found soft ground and a steadily run Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood not playing to his strengths but he ran an excellent race in the circumstances. The drop back to a strongly run 6f on a sound surface will be more to his liking. Big chance but stall 11 could be better.

Fearby a comfortable winner of 5f Sandown Listed race was no match for the smart Armor when runner-up in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last time. Better ground today should suit him and if he reproduces his Sandown form, he’s not got much to find with Lusail and Berkshire Shadow. First start over 6f but he should stay the extra furlong.

Vintage Clarets was 1 ½ lengths behind Berkshire Shadow at Royal Ascot and gets 3lb from that one here. He wasn’t suited by the drop back to 5f in the Super Sprint at Newbury last time and better can be expected back at 6f today.

3:35 – Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) – 5f

Today’s feature race is the Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35).  French filly Suesa gets an opportunity to enhance her claims to be the best sprinter in Europe after her recent impressive Goodwood win. Wesley Ward sends over Golden Pal who he says is the best horse he’s ever trained. There’s also a rare juvenile runner in Chipotle who gets plenty of weight from the older sprinters.  This should be a run at a very fast pace with Winter Power, Golden Pal, Que Amoro and Bedford Flyer all liking to be on the speed.

Suesa was so impressive when winning the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood last time by 3 lengths from Dragon Symbol. If can reproduce that run here on quicker ground, she’s the one to beat. Not sure about her high draw though.

Unlike Suesa, Dragon Symbol didn’t have the perfect trip. He had to briefly wait for a gap 2f out and he hung right and made his effort out wider than the winner. He’s got 3 lengths to find with Suesa on that running but the anticipated strong gallop will suit and he’s proven on quick ground. He’s talented enough to win this but needs to stay straight.

Arecibo was back in 4^th in the King George. He’s been in tremendous form this season. The 6-year-old had been suited by the end-to-end gallop when coming from off the pace to finish runner-up to Oxted in the Group 1 King Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ridden closer to the pace at Goodwood he was as ever last off the bridle. He hit the front 1f out but that was far to early for him and he was seen off I the final 100yds. Expect to see him ridden to close as he was at Royal Ascot.

Golden Pal looked a real speedster when comfortably winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keenland last November. Just the one start this year when winning a Grade 3 at Saratoga last month.

Winter Power made it 2-2 over C&D when winning a Listed race last month. Needs to improve again to win in this company but she’s only a 3-year-old and it’s possible she will. Given the speed she’s shown here before she could be hard to peg back.

It’s a long time since a 2-year-old won the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. In fact, you must go back Kingsgate Native way back in 2007 for the last one. Although Acapulco did finish runner-up in 2015 renewal. Mind you only 14 have tried since 1998 and the last two did so five years ago.

There is one juvenile entered in this year’s race and its Chipotle. However, he does need fast ground and the quicker the better. A winner of the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. I think he would have won in the Super Sprint at Newbury but for being hampered 1f out. If he had won that day, he would have been 4-4 on good or faster ground. You can put a line through his run in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last time as the ground was too soft for him.

Hollie Doyle has been booked for the ride and the first time cheekpieces are applied. It’s going to be big ask but I can see him running well.

Verdict: A very competitive looking renewal and there’s expected to be a lot of pace courtesy of Winter Power, Golden Pal and Bedford Flyer. Suesa has a tricky draw to overcome but looks a worthy favourite. At bigger odds an each-way investment on the sole juvenile Chipotle could pay off and Arecibo could get into the money from off the pace.

1pt each way – Chipotle – 25/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

4:40 – Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2 ½ f

Four 3-year-old last time out winners Achelois, Umneyaat, Sea La Rosa & Jewel In My Crown are sure to be popular with punters here.

Of the four Jewel In The Crown came from off the pace to win at Nottingham last time. She’s up 6lb for that success and up in class here but she’s a 3-year-old going the right way and the handicapper may not have got hold of her just yet.

The 4-year-old Declared Interest must give weight to some improvers but she’s not out of this. An excellent 1 length 4^th of 15 in a Royal Ascot handicap. She improved again to win at Newbury two starts back, off 5lb lower and possibly found the run coming to quick when only 5^th in a Listed race at Ascot 28-days ago. Return to 1m 2f looks interesting as she’s only had two starts over the distance and showed she stayed it when winning at Chelmsford last October. Stall 11 isn’t easy for a prominent runner.

Verdict: All on eyes on the progressive 3-year-olds with a slight preference for Jewel In My Crown but top-weight Declared Interest can go well back up to 1m 2f.

5:10 – Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m

A 3-year-old only handicap concludes day three and it looks a good, if tricky race. Royal Fleet has won all three of his career starts and the colt gets the first time hood after pulling too hard before winning at Newmarket last time.

Wishaah has won two of his three starts. Despite being slowly he made a winning handicap debut at Newmarket last month. The form of that race looks solid enough as the second and third have both gone onto win since. He’s up 7lb for that win but there should more to come from the gelding who goes well on quick ground.

Star Of Orion put in a career best when finishing a short head 2^nd of 19 to Danyah in the big field International Handicap at Ascot last time and today’s extra furlong could suit although he didn’t stay the mile in the Britannia Handicap at the Royal meeting.

Aldaary was an eyecatcher when finishing a 2 ½ lengths 5^th in the International Handicap and hets 5lb from Star Of Orion today. Connections had been hoping for the ground to ease that day so although he looks capable of winning a race like this off his present mark, he might prefer a slightly easier surface.  Jim Crowley opts for Wishaah.

Dejame Paso comes into the race looking for the hat trick after wins at Sandown and here over 1f further last time. He’s now 7lb higher so needs to improve again but goes well on a sound surface and is going the right way.

King Triton is a very interesting contender. He’s having his first start since joining the inform Grant Tuer yard for 100,000gns. The gelding made all to win a Thirsk mile maiden for Roger Varian when last seen in action 66-days ago. Handicap debut off what looks a workable mark of 85. It will be interesting to see how he fares in the pre-race betting.

Rifleman looked a nice prospect when winning on his final juvenile start at Kempton last year. Looked quirky when unseating his jockey at Sandown on his seasonal return and veering left when making his effort 1f out here over 7f. Off for 66-days he looked more manageable when a ½ length 2^nd of 8 at Newmarket 34-days ago. The gelding operation looked to have worked the trick that day and if it continues to do so and he’s on a winnable mark off just 2lb higher than last time.

Verdict: Plenty in with a chance. Of those at the head of the market Wishaah appeals most. Aldaary might prefer a bit more in the ease in the ground. Rifleman could yet fulfil his potential after a recent gelding operation and King Triton is interesting on his handicap/stable debut.

1pt win – Wishaah – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

1pt win – King Triton – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Day 2 of the Ebor Festival and Its Ladies Day both on and off the track with four of the seven races open to fillies only. The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks (3:35) is the headline race with Oaks heroine Snowfall a hot favourite to enhance her claims for the Arc. A seven-race card gets with Group 2 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (3:00) for 2-year-old fillies.

Like yesterday I ‘ve had a look at all seven races on the card and have selections in three of them.

York Ebor Festival – Day 2

1:50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) – 6f

The unbeaten Sandrine will be a popular choice. A winner of the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and a Group 2 at Newmarket on her last two starts. She has a 3lb penalty to carry for that latter success but is the one to beat on known form.

Desert Dreamer has 1 ¾ lengths to find with Sandrine on their running at Newmarket but does get 3lb which helps. However, you have to think that her old rival has more scope for improvement and can give the weight away.

Zain Claudette showed herself to be a smart filly when beating Desert Dreamer by a nose when successful in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last time. There should be more to come from her but she will need to progress to beat the favourite.

Illustrating a winner at Catterick on her racecourse found things happening to quickly when only 7^th of 21 in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. However, she returned to winning ways when showing a good turn of foot to win at Goodwood (soft) 22-days ago. The step up to 6f should suit her on breeding.

Of the rest Outside World made all to win over C&D last month. The dam won a Group 1 over a mile so she’s bred to be smart. This is a big step up in class for the Mark Johnston horse but she can’t be easily dismissed with Dettori up for the first time.

Verdict: Sandrine will be tough to beat but Zain Claudette is a big danger and don’t be surprised to see Outside World run a big race.

2:25 – Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 6f

System is the form pick on her win over Desert Dreamer in a Newmarket Listed race in July.

Smullen is a four-race maiden but the Kevin Ryan trained gelding put in a career best effort when a 2 ½ length 6^th off 22 behind the useful Sacred Bridge in Naas Sales race last time. A reproduction of that run would give him each way claims here.

Korker, a Carlisle winner in May, found the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot to hot a race but bounced back to winning ways in calmer waters at Thirsk 27-days ago. First try at 6f, should say, and is a contender.

Atomic Lady a winner at Ripon created a good impression when winning a nursery handicap over C&D two starts back. Not as good back at 5f at Musselburgh last time. However, she was drawn on the unfavored far side that day and a better run can be expected from the filly here.

Wings Of War built on the promise of his Leicester racecourse debut when making all to win at Nottingham last month. Well suited to quick ground and the son of Dark Angel is open to more progress.

Verdict: The pace held up at York on the straight course yesterday and paid to drawn in lower half of the draw. Atomic Lady wasn’t seen to best effect at Musselburgh last time and better is expected from the previous C&D winner from stall 12. Smullen looks the pick of the Kevin Ryan runners after his run in the big sales race at Naas last time and stall 11 should be fine.

1pt each way – Atomic Lady – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

1pt win – Smullen – 17/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

3:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m

The first of the card’s three handicaps and most of my fancies seem to be among the higher drawn horses.

Astro King a ¾ length 3^rd of 15 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup before beating all but the exciting Real World when 2^nd of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Was found to be lame when disappointing here in the John Smith’s Cup (1m 2f) when last seen in action.  The return to a strongly run mile looks a plus for the 4-year-old who could go off favourite.

La Trinidad has improved with each of his four starts this season and has won his last two starts here, including over the mile last month.  He’s up 6lb for that success but he’s well suited to the tempo of a big field handicap, is going the right way and goes well on a sound surface.

David O’Meara saddled the winner of this 2013 & 2016 and has a couple of solid contenders in Escobar & Orbaan who have both won over C&D in the past. Orbaan last win came over C&D last July. He got a typical Jamie Spencer hold up ride when 6^th of 18 in the Summer Mile at Goodwood last time. Didn’t get the best of runs 2f out but still best of the hold up horses. Will need luck in the run but should go well. Escobar finished third in the Summer Mile. He’s well suited to big field handicaps and like Orbaan shouldn’t be far away if he gets luck in the run.

Magical Morning was a decisive winner at Sandown two starts bac. Looked like he would be involved at the finish 2f out in the Summer Mile but weakened quickly a furlong out. Ran like something was amiss rather than the good to soft ground which produced his tame effort.

Ametist won over 7f at Newmarket (good to firm) two starts back. Below that form back at the same venue in the Bunbury Cup. Looks like he needs a mile now and is capable of better than he showed last time.

Fame And Acclaim finished runner-up in two big field mile handicaps at the Curragh in the spring when with Joseph O’Brien. Finished 2 ½ lengths behind La Trinidad over C&D two starts back and ran to the same level at Newmarket 12-days ago.  Hollie Doyle 1-1 for the yard is in the saddle.

Fox Champion is hard to win with but has run well on a couple of occasions this season to think he won’t be far away off his present mark. Close up 3^rd behind Ametist at Newmarket, gets 3lb from that one today, and will appreciate being on a sound surface.

Gifted Ruler shaped like he was worth a try over mile when 2^nd of 11 to Baashir at Doncaster last month.  He gets 5lb from the winner for a 1 ½ length beating. On a competitive mark and could get into the places if handling the track. Baashir won here over 7f so we know he goes well at the course and goes well on fast ground

Verdict: If the cards fall right bothEscobar and Orbaan can win this. The step up to a mile will suit Ametist although he’s drawn out wide in stall 19.  La Trinidad goes well at the track and bids for a York hat trick. He’s going the right way but stall 20 could be better. The return to a mile will suit Fame And Acclaim but some ease in the ground might be needed for him to win this. Gifted Ruler looks to have a handy draw in stall 6 and looks worth a try at a mile. Another with a low draw is previous course winner Baashir.

1pt win – La Trinidad – 8/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt win – Baashir – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral

3:35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Epsom & Irish Oaks winner Snowfall will be odds on to win this as he bids to enhance her Arc claims. No issues with the track for the daughter of Deep Impact either as she won the Musidora here on her seasonal return. Snowfall’s chance is even stronger in the likely event that her main market rival Wonderful Tonight doesn’t run due to quick ground.

Wonderful Tonight only has 3lb to find with the favourite on official ratings and she will be suited by the return to 1m 4f after winning over further at Goodwood last time.

Of the rest. Loving Dream had Eshaada ¾ length back in second when winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot the last day. The quicker ground at Ascot suited the winner who should stay further than 1m 4f.

Eshaada, a winner over first two starts at Newbury, arguably comes out of the Ribblesdale with even more credit than the winner. She was keen in the early stages of the race, wasn’t as well positioned as the winner and had to make her effort wider. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again but Eshaada may have the more scope for improvement. Still both fillies have plenty to find with Snowfall on the figures.

Verdict: Snowfall will take the beating especially as there has to be doubt about the participation of her main rival Wonderful Tonight. Her main danger’s look to be Loving Dream and Eshaada with the latter capable of improving into second.

4:10 – OR8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Maglev looked useful when winning at Yarmouth on his second career start. Should really have won at Chester last time but managed to not get a run in a three-runner race. More to come from the colt and given how well the William Haggas horses he’s a strong contender.

Tropez Power awarded the race in the Stewards room at Newbury before finding soft ground not to his liking at Goodwood. The type to bounce back on better ground today.

Neptune Legend improved for the step into nursery company at Newbury last time. He’s up 6lb but should go well again. He’s only been raised 4lb for that success

Aswan was another to improve for the step into handicap when winning at Goodwood (good to soft) three weeks ago. He’s up 4lb for that success and should remain competitive.

Alflaila a winner on his racecourse debut at Salisbury, had subsequent Listed winner System back in second that day. Wasn’t at his best, trying to give 6lb to Maglev when 4^th to that one at Yarmouth on his next start. Back to his best when runner-up to a subsequent Group 3 winner at Newmarket 20-days ago. Nursery debut and can improve for his first start at 7f.

Verdict: Better can be expected from Tropez Power on quicker ground. However, this looks between the two market leaders Maglev and Alflaila with a slight preference for the latter.

4:45 – British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 4f

Trainer Dermot Weld is the first port of call for this race. Since 2010 he’s run four fillies, two of them have won and one finished runner-up.

He and jockey Osin Murphy teamed up with Search For A Song to win this in 2019 and they do so again here with Amma Grace.

The 4-year-old won a Listed race at Leopardstown (soft) last October and prior to that had finished runner-up to Cayenne Pepper in Group 2 at the Curragh (good). She’s just had the two starts this season and wasn’t disgraced when returning from a three-month absence to finish a 5 ¾ length 4^th of 10 to the smart Le Petite Coco in a Group 3 at Cork 12-days ago.

Portfolio has been a steady improver this season winning quick ground handicaps at Leicester and Newmarket. She finished a ¾ length 3^rd of 9 behind Save A Forest on her first try in Listed company 19-days ago.

Abstinence, one of two Ralph Beckett trained fillies in the line up, seemed to put in an improved effort when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 7 in a Newmarket Listed race last month. That was he first start at 1m 4f and she seemed to stay it well enough. Given she’s only had four career starts the 3-year-old is open to more improvement.

Another open to improvement is the John & Thady Gosden trained Pennymoor. The daughter of Frankel showed improved form to get off the mark at the third attempt when easily winning a Kempton novice 15-days ago. The step up to 1m 4f suited the 3-year-old whose dam won a German Oaks. This is a big step-up class but she’s got scope for plenty of improvement.

Verdict: It will be interesting to see if Pennymoor can improve for the return to turf after her impressive Kempton win last time. Amma Grace comes into the race with the best form and bids for a third win in the race for trainer Dermot Weld.

5:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 7f

Spirit Of Bermuda bids for the hat trickafter wins at Leicester & Newmarket. Up a further 3lb but another big run can be expected from the William Haggas trained 4-year-old.  

The Gosden’s have a couple of live contenders in Star Of Emaraaty and Sweet Enough. The first named was highly tried in the Nell Gwyn and 1,000 Guineas on her first two starts after joining the yard. Bounced back from a poor run, drawn on the wrong side and on heavy ground, in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot, when 1 ¼ lengths behind Spirit Of Bermuda at Newmarket. Sweet Enough bids for the hat trick after wins at Newmarket and on her handicap debut at Yarmouth last time. Likely capable of better having only had five career starts,

Arabian Romance has won two of her three starts this season, both on good to firm going. Last time she put in a career best on RPR’s when digging deep to get up in the final strides at Leicester 29-days ago. Up 6lb but she’s going the right way and is at the right end of the handicap.

Improvised has improved with each of her four starts and bids for the four timer here. Won on her handicap debut at Epsom last time despite racing wide coming into Tattenham Corner and making her effort out widest of all in the straight. This more conventional should suit her better and she’s only up 4lb for her Epsom win. Only 8-2 to carry, Silvestre De Sousa takes over in the saddle and the 3-year-old looks ahead of the handicapper. 

Verdict: Three-year-olds have won 70% of races since 2010 but that is from 54% of the total runners. Which means the 4-year-old’s can be totally discounted. Two of the leading fancies Spirit Of Bermuda and Arabian Romance are from that age group. Both Star Of Emaraaty and Sweet Enough look to be improving 3-year-old’s, as is the David O’Meara trained Improvised who still looks ahead of the handicapper.

1pt win – Arabian Romance – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Improvised – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

York’s Ebor Festival is here and all the action on the Knavesmire gets underway with the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (1:50). Each day will see seven races and all have them have at least £70,000 in guaranteed prize money. Expect big fields and competitive racing over the next four days.

Unlike 12 months ago when there were no paying spectators in attendance the racecourse is expecting over 80,000 people through the gates over the four days.  And I’m going to be there on Friday for Nunthorpe Day.

The feature race of day one is of course the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes (3.35). Recent winners of the race include Sea The Stars, Frankel and Roaring Lion. There’s £567,100 on offer to this year’s winner of what looks an interesting renewal.  There’s a good supporting with four big field handicaps.

The going is being described as good at York but I wonder if it will ride on the easy side of good. It doesn’t look like any rain is being forecast for the Wednesday or Thursday. Although there could be some light rain on Friday and Saturday.  

I have previewed all seven races but I’m concentrating my bets on the handicaps.

1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Class 2) – 5 ½ f

The field contains plenty of experienced handicappers like Lahore and Major Jumbo.

Lahore won here over 5f last season, off 4lb higher and was only beaten 2 ¼ length when 6^th in the Ayr Gold Cup. He’s yet to fire in three starts this season, including here last time. However, he’s nicely treated when he does bounce back to form and a strongly run race suits him well.

Major Jumbo set too strong pace on the far side in the Stewards Cup and was never going to last home. He’s losing run goes back almost 2-years but there have been enough signs this season to think the 7-year-old can take advantage of tempting handicap mark before too long. He’s run some of his best races at York in the past and has won twice over 6f.

Live In The Moment is 2-2 at the course with one of those wins coming at last year’s festival. He continued in winning form later in the year winning at Newmarket & Chelmsford. The 4-year-old showed he remains in good form when returning from a 11-month absence to finish a ¾ length 3^rd of 9 at Chelmsford 15-days ago.  That run should have put him spot fitness wise for this.

Hurricane Ivor looked like he could land a valuable sprint handicap when a short head 2^nd of 18 at Ascot two starts back. He didn’t build on that promise when only a disappointing 15^th in the Stewards Cup last time. That race is best forgotten as the 4-year-old probably didn’t like the very testing ground and may not have handled the undulations at Goodwood.

Twilight Falls is one of several 3-year-old’s who get into the race. He beat King Of Stars at Newmarket. He couldn’t follow up, off 8lb higher at Goodwood last time when a 2-length 4^th of 13 behind the Whenthedealinsdone. However, he didn’t get the best of starts that day and had to wait for a gap 2 f out. It was also good to soft at Goodwood and the colt has never been out of the first two on good or quicker ground. He’s just had the seven starts and remains capable of better.

Whenthedealinsdone won with a bit in hand at Goodwood. He’s been raised 6lb for that success but is lightly raced enough to think he’s open to further progress. William Buick 2-2 on the gelding keeps the ride and today’s extended 5f trip could be ideal for the 3-year-old.

Verdict: A tough opener that’s for sure. Live In the Moment was an improving handicapper last season and go close. Hurricane Ivor is better than he was able to show at Goodwood last time and won’t be far away. Whenthedealinsdone and Twilight Falls are progressive 3-year-olds and the latter will prefer a sounder surface. However, of it’s on the easy side it will favour the former. Major Jumbo has excellent York form and is nicely handicapped on his best form.

1pt win – Live In The Moment – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Whenthedealinsdone – 15/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

2:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) – 7f

Just the five juveniles are set to go to post for this year’s race but on paper it looks competitive enough with just 8lb separating the five on RPR’s.

The Charlie Appleby trained Noble Truth looked a useful prospect when beating Ehraz by 2 lengths at Newmarket last month and looks sure to go well here. This only the second runner the trainer has had in the race.

Ehraz was making his recourse debut behind the Appleby colt and has since boasted that form by winning an Ascot maiden.

Dubawi Legend was well backed to make a winning racecourse debut at Doncaster last month. He duly obliged for favourite backers producing an excellent turn of foot to put five lengths between himself and his 11 rivals. He looks a smart prospect.

Royal Patronage is the most experienced of the five runners, having had three starts, but he’s improving with each start and made all to win at Epsom last time. Looks the likely pace angle. Trainer Mark Johnson saddled last year’s winner.

Imperial Fighter made a winning racecourse debut at the Qatar Goodwood Festival. He’s related to plenty of winners and open to more progress. Trainer Andrew Balding is having a tremendous season with his juveniles with 23 winners from 96 runners 24% + 57.72 and he’s 6 winners from 13 runners 46% +35.25 8 placed 62% with his juveniles in Group & Listed contests.

Verdict: Noble Truth. Ehraz and Dubawi Legend look useful prospects. However,there doesn’t seem likely to be much pace in the race so Royal Patronage could get a solo out in front. Andrew Balding’s juvenile record this season means Imperial Fighter can’t be discounted either.

3:00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f

Eight stand their ground for a race that can be a launch pad for St Leger bid. However, the ante post favourite Kemari won’t be running in the final colt’s classic as he’s a gelding.

Kemari had no problem with the step into Group company last time when winning the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. Stays 1m 6f but doesn’t lack pace for today’s drop back to 1m 4f.

Aidan O’Brien saddles three High Definition, Sir Lucan and The Mediterranean. The latter could be used as pacemaker with both High Definition, Sir Lucan likely to be suited by a truly run race.

High Definition remains the most interesting of the trio. Unbeaten on his two juvenile starts. He made and promising seasonal reappearance when a 2 length third to Hurricane Lane here in the Dante in May. However, he didn’t give his running well behind that one in the Irish Derby last time. He surely remains capable of better. 

Sir Lucan comes into the race the most progressive of the three Ballydoyle runners having returned from a 11-week absence to finish a ½ length 2nd of 8 in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. York’s longer straight should suit the son of Camelot.  The first time cheekpieces are applied today and a good run will enhance his St Leger claims.

Third Realm, trained by Roger Varian, bounced back from a below par run in the Epsom Derby when 1 3/4 lengths behind Sir Lucan in the Gordon Stakes but I don’t see why he should finish ahead of the O’Brien colt here.

Youth Spirit was a further ¼ length behind in 4th in the Goodwood race. He was, however, giving Sir Lucan & Third Realm 3lb that day so isn’t out of this.

Verdict: High Definition needs to get his career back on track after a disappointing run in the Irish Derby. However, he does remain a colt with real potential. Stablemate Sir Lucan looks a St Leger contender and has less questions to answer after a good run at Goodwood last time.

3:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f

With St Mark’s Basilica being a non-runner due to a setback stablemate and last year’s Yorkshire Oaks heroine Love has been diverted to the race. The quick ground should suit the filly and given the lack of pace Ryan Moore seems likely to get an uncontested lead.

Mishriff runner-up to Adayar in the King George at Ascot. He finished 1 ½ length in front of Love at that day and the drop back to an extended 1m 2f is a positive for the 4-year-old as is the quick ground.  I didn’t think we saw the best of Love that day though and I don’t think there will be much between the pair this afternoon.

Alcohol Free winner of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood races beyond a mile for the first time. On pedigree there must be a big doubt about her stamina for today’s distance. However, it’s good to see that connections have decided to roll the dice and come for the race.

Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Mac Swiney has failed to stay 1m 4f in both the Derby & Irish version on his last two starts. This trip could be ideal for the colt but you would think he would prefer softer ground.

I really like the claims of Mohaafeth. The 3-year-old wasn’t suited by the muddling gallop in a Group 2 over C&D last time. He wasn’t well placed when the race began in earnest two furlongs out. However, he showed a good change of gear to get his head briefly in front inside the final furlong before that big move took its toll in the final 100 yds.  

Verdict: Love looks set to get a solo out in front so Ryan Moore should be able to dictate the tempo of the race. Mishriff is a solid contender and probably should be favourite. Of the 3-year-old’s Alcohol Free surely won’t stay. This could prove to be Mac Swiney’s optimum trip but the quick ground is be a bit of a concern. No ground concerns for Mohaafeth but the lack of pace could be.

1pt win – Mac Swiney – 18/1 @ Bet365

4:10 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2) – 2m ½ f

Get Shirty won a Listed race in France last August. He’s competitively weighted on the best of his French form on his first start for David O’Meara. It will be interesting to see if he comes in for market support.

Heading the ante post betting is Irish raider Arcadian Sunrise who has won his last two starts including valuable handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival 19-days ago. The 7-year-old has only had four starts on the flat winning once and was sent off the 7/4 favourite when a 3 ¼ length 3^rd of 14 for a 2m handicap at the Curragh in June. Keen that day he has the ideal jockey in Jamie Spencer to get him settled. Looks well handicapped based on his improved hurdles form.

Rajinsky was a ¾ length 2^nd of 17 in this race last year and is 1lb lower this time around. Normally a consistent handicapper he put in a lesser performance at Goodwood last time over 2m 4f but will be suited by the drop back 2m here.

Island Brave was doing his best work at the finish in the 2m handicap at the Shergar Cup last time. The drying ground is a plus for the 7-year-old and trainer Heather Main has booked Osin Murphy for the ride.

Good ground is essential for Bodyline. A progressive staying handicapper last season he made a belated seasonal reappearance when a ½ length 2^nd of 7 at Musselburgh 12-days ago. Relatively lightly raced. He’s up 3lb and is having his first start beyond 1m 6f but if he stays, he shouldn’t be far away at the finish.

1pt win – Bodyline – 10/1 @ Bet365

1pt win – Arcadian Sunrise – 5/1 @ Bet365

Verdict: Rajinsky was runner-up in this 12 months ago and won’t be winning out of turn. Quick ground suits Island Brave and Osin Murphy is an eyecatching jockey booking. Bodyline is another suited by quick ground and should be in the mix. Arcadian Sunrise looks well handicapped if he can transfer his improved hurdle form to the flat. Get Shirty is an interesting newcomer for David O’Meara.

4:45 – IRE Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f

Tenaya Canyon was suited by the strong pace when coming from behind to win at Doncaster 13-days ago. She’s up 5lb for her Doncaster win but the 3-year-old is a sprinter in form and going the right way.

Atiyah is another handicap sprinter who looks on the up. She comfortably saw off 7 rivals when winning at Wolverhampton in June. The 3-year-old has been hiked up 11lb for that all-weather success but she must be respected back on quick turf.

Not On Your Nellie a three-time winner put in a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2^nd of 6 at Redcar 13-days ago.  Quick ground suits the 4-year-old and the forecast strong pace is also a positive. Stablemate Princess Power is more exposed but she’s been shaping like she’s about to hit winning form. A shade disappointing when only a 3^rd of 6 at Thirsk last Friday but her normal visor is replaced by the first time cheekpieces here. The stronger the gallop the better her chance and she did post her best RPR when 4^th over C&D at the 2019 Ebor Festival.

Ey Up It’s Maggie has run well on all three of her starts at the course and posted a career best when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 17 here over 6f two starts back. The 3-year-old wasn’t seen to best effect when only 3^rd of 5 at Chester last time and is better judged on her York run.

Verdict: Tenaya Canyon is an inform filly and will popular after her recent Doncaster success. Nigel Tinkler has two live contenders in Not On Your Nellie and Princess Power who gets a change of headgear and is likely to get the strong pace she needs for the first time this season. Ey Up It’s Maggie goes well here and must be respected.

1pt win – Princess Power – 10/1 @ Bet365

5:20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

If you haven’t had a winner by the last race.  All I can say is good luck because this nursery has attracted a maximum field of 22 runners.

There looks to be plenty of early speed here but the pace has tended to hold up in races on the straight course so far this season.

Bosh is the form pick on his recent ½ length 2^nd of 22 to the useful Sacred Bridge in a valuable Sales race at Naas. Prior to that he had won at Newmarket and over C&D. Big player on his nursery debut and has entries in the top autumn juvenile races.

Aristobulus bounced back from a poor run at Redcar to win in good style on his nursery debut at Nottingham (good to soft) last week. It looked a good performance and although he has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success he’s unexposed and at the right end of the handicap.

Papa Cocktail built on the promise of his racecourse debut when winning at Haydock (good to firm) over 7f two starts back. Not disgraced. albeit well beaten, when stepped up in class for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes last time. Better judged on the promise of his Haydock win.

Instinctive Move impressed in winning on his racecourse debut at Bath but was very disappointing when stepped up to Listed company at Sandown last time. However, it was good to soft there and a return to better ground should suit.

Wonderful World returned from 4-month absence to win at Brighton 12-days ago. Opening handicap mark of 82 doesn’t look lenient but he’s open to further improvement and could get into the places.

Lady Lade bids for the hat trick after wins at Carlisle and Hamilton. Another open further progress on her handicap debut.

Jadhlaan won a 5f novice here in June and was a solid 2^nd of 13 on his nursery debut at Goodwood last time. Likely to be in the mix but vulnerable to better handicapped juveniles.

Sisters In The Sky finished behind the more experienced Bosh at Newbury before going onto win a soft ground maiden at Goodwood 22-days ago. Looks the type to do well in nurseries and mark of 81 looks workable for his handicap debut.  Each way claims if as effective on today’s quicker ground.

Verdict: There looks to be plenty pace among the higher drawn runners.  Bosh is the form pick and right favourite but there are plenty of potentially unexposed juveniles in the field. Non more so than Aristobulus who was an impressive winner at Nottingham 8-days ago. Sisters In The Sky won’t be far away if he handles today’s quicker surface. Wonderful World looked good when winning at Brighton and could get into the money from stall 16.  

1pt win – Aristobulus – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Wonderful World – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Talking Tough just caught in the final strides at Roscommon last evening and had to settle for second.  I could have done with that one going in on the eve of the Ebor Festival. Still there’s a couple of chances to go into York in winning form.

A couple of races at Leicester on Tuesday have caught my eye:

5:25 – This looks a competitive Class 4 nursery handicap and it’s attracted a good-sized field of 12 juveniles.  I’m torn between top-weight Adaay In Asia and Ye Good Thing. 

Adaay In Asia has won two of her last three starts on the all-weather at Lingfield. In between those two wins she ran well on her turf debut when a 2 ¾ length 7^th of 22 in the Super Sprint at Newbury.  The handicapper has put the filly up 7lb for her latest win but she’s capable of improvement on her handicap debut.

Ye Good Thing is another progressing with racing. A winner at Yarmouth in June. She’s since gone onto finish third back at that Yarmouth and then put in a career best when a neck 2^nd of 10 at Newbury on his nursery debut 26-days ago. Up 5lb for her latest effort but she likely remains on a competitive mark.  Stall one is a shade off-putting which just swings it towards Adaay In Asia who is drawn in the middle.

1pt win – Adaay In Asia – 4/1 @ Bet365

6:55 – Zuhai is likely to be a short-priced favourite. He comes into the race looking seeking the hat trick after wins at Nottingham and Ffos Las 14-days ago. A mark of 82 looks workable for the 3-year’s old handicap debut and the gelding looks the one to beat.

I fancied Destroyer for a race at Pontefract recently but he was a non-runner on account of the soft ground.  A winner over C&D last June from 1lb higher. He returned from a 9-month absence to finish 6^th of 9 at Newmarket last month. Was likely in the need of the run that day and did win second up last season. He needs quick ground and although this is a Class 4 handicap not the Class 5, he won last year I think he’s got a solid each way chance here. Yard had a winner at Newmarket on Saturday.

1pt each way – Destroyer – 22/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Double Or Bubble’s impressive Pontefract win aside, it was an underwhelming Sunday for the selections.

I said yesterday that there wouldn’t be any selections before York but I was too hasty as there’s a couple that I fancy at Roscommon on Monday evening.

Roscommon

6:15 – Miss Molly T can usually be relied on to give her running and the mare has run well on all four starts this season. She returned from a seven-week break to finish a 4 ¼ length 7^th of 16 over 6f at Curragh 8-days ago. Doing her best work at the finish last time. The first-time blinkers are applied today and she will be suited by the return to 7f.  Last year’s maiden win came on soft ground so any rain won’t hinder her chance.

1pt win – Miss Molly T – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

6:45 – Talking Tough returned from a short break with a better run then of late when a 4 ½ length 7^th of 16 at Leopardstown 11-days ago.  The 4-year-old is now 2lb below his last winning mark and a promising apprentice takes off 7lb. Jockey & trained combined to give us a nice priced winner at the Curragh on Friday.

1pt win – Talking Tough – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Sacred was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. Her victory ensured not to match damage was done to the betting bank. If you backed Embour (33/1) each way in the William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap with the couple of bookies, including the sponsors, paying seven places you got a nice return as that one sneaked into 6^th in Ripon’s big sprint handicap.

A busy week of racing ends with Group 1 action at Deauville with the highlight being the Prix Jacques Le Marois. Palace Pier last year’s winner bids for back to wins in the race.  However, he faces some serious rivals in 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare and last year’s runner-up Alpine Star who will be all the better for her recent York reappearance.

This side of the English Channel Pontefract stages a competitive Listed race EBF Stallions Highfield Farm Flying Fillies’ Stakes (3:10). There’s £57,500 in guaranteed prize money for the race and it’s attracted a big field of 15 fillies, including runners from the Aidan O’Brien & Jessica Harrington yards.

There’s also a good card on the all-weather at Dundalk with the feature race being the Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Red God” Handicap (4:25).

I will be preparing for York’s Ebor Festival over the next few days so today’s selections will be the last until Wednesday.  

Let’s begin today’s preview at where else but Deauville.

Deauville

2:50 – Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois (Group 1) – 1m

Palace Pier is the best older miler in Europe. He’s won all three of his starts this season. Granted he wasn’t at his best when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time but prior to that had been at his best when comfortably seeing of Lady Bowthorpe in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. Remains the one to beat.

Alpine Star won the Group 1Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last season and then ran Palace Pier to ¾ length in this race 12 months ago. Her half-sister Alpha Centauri won this in 2018 and she will be sharper for her recent reappearance at York.

Poetic Flare is one of the best if not the best 3-year-old miler in Europe. The 2,000 Guineas winner was so impressive when landing the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on good to firm ground.  Not quite at his best when a 1 ¾ lengths runner-up to Alcohol Free in the Sussex Stakes last time. Its was still an excellent run by the colt, given he wasn’t totally at home on the track at Goodwood, would have preferred a stronger pace to chase and the going was soft. If he gets good ground today, he will give Palace Pier a race and can beat him.

The best of the home team could be Midtown. The Andre Fabre trained colt won both juvenile starts last season and made a really promising seasonal reappearance when a 1 ¾ length 3^rd of 13 in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat here over 7f 35-days ago. Today’s extra furlong should suit him. Has yet to race on going better than soft/heavy but his dam’s best form came on a sound surface so good ground could see him improve further. Which he will need to do to beat the likes of Palace Pier and Poetic Flare.

Pontefract

3:10 – EBF Stallions Highfield Farm Flying Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f

Valeria Messalina, trained by Jessica Harrington, needs good or quicker ground so will hope the rain stays away. Her best form has come at 7f and this will be the 4-year’s old first start over 6f.  Runner-up in Group 3 at Fairyhouse 35-days ago. If she can reproduce her short head 2^nd of 12 to One Master at Goodwood last year over today’s shorter trip, she will be tough to beat from stall 5.

Happy Romance has a 3lb penalty for winning a Group 3 (6f) at Newbury last month. This is her distance and Newbury was the first time she had her favored sound surface this season. Stall 11 could be better but she’s a strong contender.

Double Or Bubble is another who prefers a sound surface. She won a Newmarket handicap over 7f on her seasonal reappearance and a reproduction of that performance would see her go close here. Likely didn’t stay a mile in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and was back in better form back at 7f when a neck 2^nd of 8 in a Chelmsford Listed race last time. Has a good draw in stall 2 and has only had six career starts so remains open to more improvement.  A strongly run 6f may well be ideal for her.

Keep Busy is in the mix on her best form over 5f but that maybe that is her optimum distance and she also may prefer slightly easier ground.

The best of the Aidan O’Brien trained pair could be More Beautiful. She was well behind Valeria Messalina at Fairyhouse but showed that 6f could be her trip when a ¾ length 2^nd of 13 in Listed contest at Naas 25-days ago. The 3-year-old will like the ground and is interesting in the first-time blinkers. Stall 12 isn’t ideal but she could get into the places if building on her Naas run.

1pt win – Double Or Bubble – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Dundalk

4:25 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF “Red God” Handicap – 1m 2 ½ f

Safecracker will be popular after making a winning all-weather debut over C&D last time. Prior to that success had finished a 1 length 2^nd of 10 behind recent Leopardstown Listed winner Interpretation.  The 3-year-old has only had five career starts and is capable of more improvement on his handicap debut.

Bowerman is 3-3 at Dundalk and is having his first start here since winning a Group 3 over C&D last September. Hasn’t cut much ice on turf so far this season but he’s a real synthetics specialist and his form figures on the all-weather are 21117111. Can’t be ruled out back on his favoured surface.

Alhaazm is another Dundalk specialist and he made it 4-4 here when winning over 7f in April. Last of 17 in a valuable Curragh mile handicap 50-days ago. Takes a big step up in distance here but seemed to stay 1m 2f turf when trained by Sir Michael Stoute.  The key to the 5-year-old could be a return to a course and surface that really suits.

1pt win – Alhaazm – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt win – Bowerman – 9/1 @ Bet365

1:30 – Eloy D’amerval has dropped down to winnable mark and the 4-year-old gets the addition of the first-time blinkers for a return to the all-weather. Colin Keane booked so a big run could be forthcoming.

Previous C&D winner Phoenix Open shaped with promise when a 3 ½ length 2^nd of 15 at Gowran Park 4-days ago. Handy draw in stall and looks on a handy mark if the quick turnround doesn’t inconvenience the 5-year-old.  

2:05 – Adapt To Dan made all to win at Bellewstown last month. The top weight hasn’t been disgraced on either start since and ran better than his finishing position suggests when 7^th of 18 at Galway 19-days ago. He’s yet to win any of his six starts but went very close over C&D last November.

1pt win – Adapt To Dan – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power

3:50 – The Highway Rat took his Dundalk form figures 1411 when comfortably winning a 5f handicap here 34-days ago. The 3-year-old has been hiked up 12lb for that victory and is in a deeper race here but he’s going the right way. First run at 6f here but did win a 7f maiden here on his racecourse debut so should be fine at the new distance.

Harry’s Bar is an all-weather specialist all his nine career wins have come on the synthetics and he’s 2-2 over C&D since joining the Adrian McGuinness yard. Top-weight but has a touch of class and will appreciate the return to the all-weather after running on turf in Group/Listed company of late. Cian MacRedmond takes off a handy 7lb

Riot is interesting on his first start for Johnny Murtagh.  The 4-year-old won at Kempton when trained by John Gosden and finished 3^rd of 28 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. All his career starts have been over 7f and the cheekpieces he’s worn on his last three starts have been removed.

Major Power took advantage of a lower turf mark when dropping back to 6 ½ f to land the valuable Scurry Handicap at the Curragh last month. He’s 7lb higher now but has won five times at Dundalk in the past all over 7f. Totally unexposed over sprint trips and could be capable of better back here.

1pt win – Harry’s Bar – 6/1 @ Bet365

5:00 – Ragtime Red is a three-time C&D winner and was a 1 length 3^rd of 13 here over 1m 4f in May. The 6-year-old maintained his good run of form when a close-up 4^th of 18 at Fairyhouse 65-days ago. Must be respected back here but has no great record after a layoff though.

Herodotus has dropped down to a tempting mark. The 4-year-old ran his best race for present yard when a 6 ½ length 3^rd of 14 over C&D in April.

Dawn Tapper won a 1m 1f handicap at Leopardstown 10-days ago. He seemed to enjoy the soft ground that day and the 3-year-old can improve further for the step up to 1m 2f here.  First run on the all-weather but he’s related to two who won here so should handle it.

1pt win – Dawn Tapper – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There’s a good card at Newbury today with the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (3.30). Preceded by Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2.20) and the Listed Denford Stakes (1.45). 

It’s also Ripon’s biggest race day of the year. The feature race of a seven- race card is Great St Wilfrid Handicap (3:45) with £75,000 in guaranteed prize money. Newmarket stages its traditional grey horse handicap (2:35) as part of a seven-race card. You can watch that race, the Great St Wilfrid, and the best of the action from Newbury on ITV4.

Let’s begin Saturday’s preview at Newbury by looking at the four races on ITV.

Newbury

1:45 – Denford Stakes (Listed Race) (formerly The Washington Singer Stakes) – 7f

Just the six go to post for this juvenile contest. Masekela heads the betting after his second to the useful Native Trail in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket.  His two main rivals look to be Bayside Bay and Seattle King. Bayside Bay looked a nice prospect when winning a C&D novice on his racecourse debut last month. He’s got a fast ground action so will appreciate the drying ground.  Seattle King, a son of Kingman, is bred to stay 1m 2f. He overcame greenness to win at Salisbury (good to soft) on his racecourse debut 52-days ago. The type to improve further and he does hold entries in the Royal Lodge and Dewhurst Stakes. I just wonder if 7f on quick ground may be a bit short for him.

Verdict: Hard to look beyond Masekela but not a betting race for me.

2:20 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 5 ½ f

Hukum won this race last year as a 3-year-old. He’s likely to be a short-priced favourite in his bid for back-to-back wins. He won a Group 3 at York last month which means he has a 3lb penalty to give away to his seven rivals.

Three-year-old’s always must be respected in the race given the weight they get from the older horses.  Since 2008, the classic generation have produced 5 winners from 21 runners 24% +4.73 10 placed 48%. There’s just one 3-year-old declared for this year’s race the Andrew Balding trained Recovery Run.  A useful juvenile winning a Sandown maiden and Ayr nursery before finishing a 1 ¾ length 2^nd of 8 behind Lone Eagle in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes on his final start of 2020. Highly tried in Group/Listed company early this season. He’s run much better on his last two starts back in handicap company. Putting in his best performance of the season when a 3-length 3^rd of 13 to Nagano at Goodwood last time. He stays 1m 4f well and could stay today’s longer distance. He’s only rated 98 so needs to find plenty of improvement to beat Hukum.

Verdict: Hukum should probably be odds on here and will take all the beating in this company.  Recovery Run could get in to the money given the record of 3-year-olds in the race.

2:55 – BetVictor Handicap (Class 3) – 7f

Aratus showed the benefit of wind surgery when comfortably winning a Doncaster novice 23-days ago. He was keen in the early stages of the race but was still able to produce a telling to foot to win. He’s open to plenty of improvement for his handicap debut but needs to settle better than he did at Doncaster.

Sunset Bay bids for a hat trick after wins over C&D and at Sandown 24-days ago. She seemed to relish the quick ground last time and although she’s been raised 9lb for her latest success she’s going the right way and could be capable defying the weight rise.

Ajyaall bounced back from a below par run on soft ground when a 3-length 5^th of 17 at York (1m) last time.  The drop back to 7f should suit the speedily bred gelding and there’s a chance we haven’t seen the best of the 4-year-old yet.

Jack’s Point hasn’t cut much ice on his three starts for new trainer Tom Clover this season. However, he looks well treated on the best of last year’s form when runner-up to Motakhayyel in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot. Laura Pearson takes off a handy 3lb and there’s a decent chance the 5-year-old could get an uncontested lead.

Verdict: Aratus could be well head of his mark on his handicap debut but can’t afford to pull as hard as he did last time. Sunset Bay is an improving filly and has good chance of landing the hat trick. There could still be more to come from Ajyaall and Jack’s Point is nicely treated on his best form and has each way claims if the eight run.

1pt each way – Jack’s Point – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

3:30 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f

Eleven stand their ground for the day’s feature race. Al Suhail heads the betting. The 4-year-old shaped with promise on his first run since a gelding operation when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 9 in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last month. He’s back at 7f for the first time since he was a 2-year-old. He takes on a couple of 7f specialists in Danyah and Motakhayyel. 

Danyah won the 7f International Stakes (Handicap) at Ascot last time. He found plenty for pressure to hold off his rivals that day and looks worth his place in pattern company for the first time.

Motakhayyel finished 3 lengths back in 6^th behind Danyah last time. Prior to that he had easily won the Bunbury Cup for the second successive year under top weight of 9-10. There shouldn’t be much between the pair here but Jim Crowley opts for Danyah.

Dreamloper improved when winning a Group 3 over a mile against her own sex at Ascot last time. Will likely need to improve again to win this better race and she will appreciate a strong gallop for a drop back to 7f.

Sacred a useful 2-year-old won the Nell Gwyn on her seasonal reappearance but her stamina tan out when only 7^th in the 1,000 Guineas. First run since the first fillies’ classic, 7f looks her trip and she can’t be ruled out for the inform William Haggas yard.

Laneqash is an interesting runner. The 3-year-old makes a belated seasonal reappearance. He looked a useful prospect when winning at Ascot on his racecourse debut and was undone by inexperience when a head second in a Doncaster Listed contest. Beaten favourite when finishing last on heavy ground in the Group 3 Horris Hill over C&D when last seen in action. Not sure what has kept him off the track though and Jim Crowley is on Danyah.

Stablemate Line Of Departure was outclassed in the July Cup and isn’t a certain stayer. This is Njord’s trip but he would likely prefer softer ground.

Verdict: I want to take on likely favourite Al Suhail on his drop back to 7f. Danyah put in a career best effort when winning at Ascot last time and deserves his place in Group company. Motakhayyel gets 6lb from Danyah and is very much in the mix. Sacred is interesting back at 7f and can’t be ruled out on a sound surface.

1pt win – Sacred – 6/1 @ Coral & Paddy Power

Ripon

3:10 – William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) (Class 2) – 7f

Ghathanfar a winner at Redcar in April has remained in good form since without winning. Arguably putting in a career best when a neck 3^rd of 19 at York. The winner Capote’s Dream and runner-up Mr Wagyu have since won again. He’s been nudged up another 2lb but has good draw in stall 20 and should get a good tow into the race. First run at Ripon for the 5-year-old.

Fortamour took advantage of a drop in the weights when winning over C&D 12-days ago. This is a deeper race but he remains on a good mark, 4lb below when winning at Ascot last September, and should go well from stall 4 provided the ground doesn’t ease too much.

Citron Major, twice a C&D winner, finished runner-up to Saxton here on his seasonal reappearance but then disappointed on his next five starts. The 6-year-old took advantage of a declining mark when winning at York 22-days ago. He’s up 4lb but has won off higher marks in the past.

Mythmaker returned from six-month layoff, to finish a 3½ lengths 7th of 13 to Citron Major at York last time. He’s got a 6lb pull in the weights with the winner today and an apprentice takes off a further 7lb. The 9-year-old was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Great St Wilfrid in 2016. Not without a chance from a stall 19 and the yard came out of a quiet spell with a winner at Beverley on Thursday.

Mark’s Choice goes well at the track, winning four times, including three over C&D. The last of those wins came in April off 2lb higher. Has been well below his best on his three starts though. Has had wind surgery since his last run 20-days ago.

Giorgio Vasari was a speedy juvenile when with Aidan O’Brien but his form tailed off in the second half of last season. Now with Derek Shaw he didn’t show much on his first start for the yard 25-days ago but the first-time visor is applied here and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is an eyecatching on.

Verdict: I do likeFortamour here but it all depends on his low draw. Of those drawn high I like the claims of the consistent Ghathanfar and Mythmaker who has each way claims.

1pt win – Fortamour – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

1pt each way – Mythmaker – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)

3:45 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f

Mr Wagyu, twice a C&D winner so no fears over the track for him. He’s been in the form of his career this year and last time out comfortably won the Goodwood Stewards Cup consolation race. He is 8lb higher now but goes from strength to strength and another big performance can’t be ruled out.

Staxton won the race 12 months ago. off 4lb lower but he’s also won off just 1lb lower over C&D in April.  Finished one place and ½ length behind Mr Wagyu in the Scottish Stewards Cup two starts back and gets a 9lb pull with that one on Saturday.  However, he was 7 lengths behind his old rival at Goodwood. Back here expect things to be much closer as his C&D form figures are 235111.

Lampang, a stablemate of Staxton, won over C&D as a juvenile. He’s shown enough this season to think he’s on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right. Not had the best of luck with draw in both the Wokingham & Stewards Cup but should get a good tow into the race from stall 2.

Intrinsic Bond an easy winner at Catterick two starts back wasn’t disgraced off a 10lb higher mark when beaten a neck by Fortamour over C&D 12-days ago. Could have a good draw on the stands rail but his best form has come with some juice in the ground.

Embour has dropped to 3lb below his last winning mark. Finished well behind Mr Wagyu at Goodwood but that run is best forgiven as it was on soft ground and he’s better on a sound surface. Much better last time from the 6-year-old when a 1 ¼ length 4^th of 6 at Musselburgh 8-days ago.  A central draw isn’t ideal but he’s competitively weighted with Lampang on their running at Hamilton in June and isn’t of this.

Soldier’s Minute a useful handicapper on turf and smart on the all-weather. Last season he finished a 2-length 4^th of 24 in the Ayr Gold Cup, off 4lb higher, and before that was a close-up second in a big field at York. Just two low key starts this season. First run at Ripon but if he handles the track he’s back down to a competitive mark. Best form on grass has come on good or quicker going.

Verdict: It would be a brave punter who rules out Mr Wagyu after his recent Goodwood success.but he is 8lb higher. Last year’s winner Staxton looks primed for another big run as does stablemate Lampang. Both Soldier’s Minute and Embour are good marks if their middle draws don’t prove an inconvenience. Of those drawn high Intrinsic Bond should get a good tow into the race from Abate and Gale Force Maya.  

1pt win – Staxton – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

1pt each way – Embour – 18/1 @ Sky Bet (paying 7 places 1/5 odds) or 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places)

Newmarket

2:35 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4) – 6f

My Style was a close-up 3^rd in this race in 2019 and won it last year, off 2lb higher. At his best on good ground or better so underfoot conditions are in his favour. This has likely been the 5-year-old’s seasonal target and he shaped with encouragement when 4^th of 10 behind one of today’s rivals Devil’s Angel over C&D last time. Gets 4lb from the winner for a 2 ½ length beating. That was Devil’s Angel first win on turf, four wins on the all-weather, and he’s only 3lb higher here another big run can be expected from the 5-year-old. Mitrosonfire a winner twice in June returned to winning ways at the Shergar Cup last Saturday. The 3-year-old is only 1lb higher here and Stefano Cherchi takes off a handy 3lb.

Verdict: Not a big field for this year’s grey horse handicap but it’s a competitive heat. Last year’s winner My Style is a big contender. Devil’s Angel and Mitrosonfire are last time out winners and won’t be far away again.

1pt win – Devil’s Angel – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes

Cheers

John